C’mon. You know I had to.
Besides, tomorrow’s going to be wall-to-wall Scotty B. If not now, when?
When the results are split out by party, 56 percent of Republicans say they do not want her to seek the office and 30 percent do. Meanwhile, 88 percent of Democrats do not want her to run. Among independents, 65 percent do not want her to run and 25 percent do…
Now, 26 percent of people view Palin favorably, compared with 23 percent in November and July of last year. Forty-one percent now view her unfavorably, compared with 38 percent in November and 37 percent in July (both in CBS News polls). Nineteen percent of people in the current poll are undecided about Palin.
Forty-three percent of Republicans have a favorable opinion of her. Independents are divided, with 30 percent holding favorable views and 35 percent unfavorable…
But while favorable toward her, most conservatives say they do not want to see Palin run in 2012 – 58 percent of conservatives say she should not run.
Does anyone seriously believe that only 43 percent of Republicans have a favorable view of Sarahcuda? Gallup polled that question in July, less than two weeks after she resigned as governor — probably the nadir of her popularity — and found 72 percent favorables among Republicans. A CNN poll last month found her favorables at 46 percent overall without offering a partisan breakdown, but given intense Democratic opposition to her, Republican support must be in the vicinity of 75-80 percent. At Thanksgiving, she was pulling 68 percent favorables among Iowa Republicans. After the Fox gig and the book tour, we’re supposed to believe that she’s not even at 50 percent among Republicans nationwide? Please.
That said, if 44 percent of Republicans do want her to run, that’s … a fairly sizable chunk of primary voters, no? Virtually every primary poll taken thus far shows her, Huck, and Mitt bunched up in the low 20s, which means in all likelihood that the threshold for victory will be exceedingly low if the 2012 primaries have as many candidates running as the 2008 primaries did. (That’s how McCain won, after all.) That’s why I think if she jumps in, Beltway Republicans will try to head her off by uniting behind a single anti-Palin candidate: They simply can’t afford to see the vote split three or four ways or else her devoted supporters will carry her to victory, especially with evangelical-heavy states like Iowa and social-con strongholds like South Carolina early in the primary schedule. (And don’t forget, vis-a-vis Florida, that she likely has a strong campaigner on her behalf there in Rubio.) Those independent numbers, if they hold would be horrible for the general, but are these numbers really so bad for the primaries?
Update: Confirming my suspicions, Conservatives 4 Palin e-mails to point out that Palin’s favorables were actually near 80 percent among Republicans — 79 to be exact — in December’s Gallup poll. Why the discrepancy? Quote:
The reason why NY Times/CBS News shows a lower Republican rating is it gives four options as opposed to three (favorable, unfavorable, undecided, haven’t heard enough from as opposed to favorable, unfavorable, undecided). Some Republicans who would answer favorable to the polls with three options would move to one of the two options in the CBS poll.
They also note that her favorables among indies were at near-majority in the Tarrance battleground poll last month, with a plurality of 49 percent giving her thumbs up.