I’m flagging this now because you’d better believe that if Scotty B shocks the world, the very first words out of Gibbs’s mouth at the next presser will be to deny that the outcome had anything to do with ObamaCare. Quote:
In Washington, I’m fighting to curb the abuses of a health insurance industry that routinely denies care. I’m fighting for financial reforms to stop Wall Street from playing havoc with our economy. I’m fighting to create a new clean energy economy and it’s clear now that the outcome of these and other fights will probably rest on one vote in the United States Senate.
Follow the link for audio. We’ve had so many Brown posts on the site today that I’ve lost track of what has and hasn’t been posted yet. Did Ed catch this little detail earlier?
According to strategists familiar with internal polls conducted for Coakley’s campaign, the consequences of Obama’s visit could produce a net-negative effect on Coakley’s campaign.
Obama has a net favorable rating in MA, according to public and private polls. A Suffolk Univ. poll out today shows 55% of MA voters viewing him favorably, while just 35% see him unfavorably. But the intensity of voters who view him unfavorably, or who disapprove of his job performance, is so high that an appearance with Coakley could bring out more GOPers ready to vote for Brown than it could Dems set on their nominee.
“Obama is radioactive in polls,” said one senior Dem operative who has seen the campaign’s internal numbers. “Every time they dropped his name in a poll, it was awful. So you just can’t take those kinds of chances.”
If he’d decided not to go up there, it could have been taken as an admission that he’s become ballot-box poison, which only weakens his grip on panicky centrist Dems in Congress. If he does go and she wins, he’s the savior; if he goes and she loses, he looks bad but can claim — entirely credibly — that she was an awful candidate who ran an irredeemably awful campaign. (Some Dems are ahead of the curve in pushing that explanation.) Given his support among young and minority voters who might not otherwise turn out, it’s probably worth the gamble. And hey — if nothing else, this suggests that the Dems really do believe that the race is winnable, bad polls and momentum notwithstanding. I think he’ll win her more votes than he’ll lose. Exit prediction: Coakley 51, Brown 48.
Update: Just occurred to me: What if the Dems reach a deal on ObamaCare this weekend? Will The One postpone the announcement until he’s in Massachusetts, in hopes that the buzz surrounding their “accomplishment” will be enough to push Coakley over the top?