Charts of the Day
posted at 11:36 am on January 14, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
Courtesy of King Banaian, this presentation comes from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, which has a handy Flash widget that allows users to measure post-World War II recessions against each other by both employment and production. It’s a handy tool not just for comparing the depth of the recessions, but also the time for the recovery — and pull off some of the spin as well. The Chart of the Day shows employment figures by months after the start of recessions. How does the 2007 recession compare?
Only the 1948 recession was close to being worse than the 2007 recession — but it’s worth noting that a year ago, that wasn’t true at all. In fact, after the first twelve months of the 2007 recession, national employment had only declined about 2.25%, putting this recession in about the middle of the range for post-war recessions. And the 2007 recession is alone in continuing its decline after the 12-month mark; in all previous post-war recessions (with the exception of the 1980/81 double-dip recession), US employment rebounded by that point.
The production numbers look similar:
We’re not in a recovery, especially not in employment. Production may have incrementally improved in 2009Q3, but hardly enough to stimulate job creation. Rep. John Carter uses similar data at Big Government to make the same point. The economic policies of the Obama administration have lengthened the recession and delayed what would be the normal recovery process, mainly by signaling to investors and businesses that costs will go up in taxes and energy prices, as well as burdensome mandates on health insurance. As a result, people are not investing their money into job-creating risk but are sheltering their cash instead.
The US needs a change in direction, and fast. Another Porkulus will give the illusion of action while deepening our debt and creating more need for higher taxes in the future. We have to make investment attractive, and the only way to do that is to cut taxes, pare back government programs, close the deficit through belt-tightening, and get Congress out of the private sector.
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“Let me be clear, Professor Buford T., that’s “T” as in Throckmorton, Ballscratch will serve my administration as the new Chart Czar. His expertise in the creation, maintenance, development of charts shall, ummm, help me defeat the strawmen who threaten this administration. The results of all his analyses shall show a clear trend toward the previous administrations failed policies, each and every time.”
ted c on January 14, 2010 at 12:59 PM
The thermometer is going lower, more than it went higher before.
Time there was warmth and plenty, but that cup soon runneth no more.
Though we could not caution all, we still might warn a few:
Dont lend your hand to raise no flag atop no Ship of Obama Fools.
Ship of Obama Fools on a cold cruel sea
Ship of Obama Fools sail away from we.
It was later than we thought, when we still might have had some belief in you,
Now we can no longer share your delusions, Ship of Obama Fools.
MB4 on January 14, 2010 at 1:01 PM
Well done!
Would it be inappropriate to suggest a song parody thread? I have a couple more LOL.
dogsoldier on January 14, 2010 at 1:09 PM
You are entirely to generous. The great depression Presidents did the same.
burt on January 14, 2010 at 1:13 PM
Lemme see… oh yeah, that amounts to a solid B+!
ya2daup on January 14, 2010 at 1:19 PM
The “fun” part
ya2daup on January 14, 2010 at 1:21 PM
I never liked term limits…but since the incumbent has such an advantage and they have abused their position by allowing lobbyists to control them, I weigh that against the constitution…you win.
We do need term limits, only because of the access to lobbying money allows them to have such an advantage that it is almost impossible to get them removed…
right2bright on January 14, 2010 at 1:30 PM
Good luck.
mankai on January 14, 2010 at 1:34 PM
2007?
Um, didn’t the recession not officially start until fall of 2008?
Count to 10 on January 14, 2010 at 1:44 PM
If you guys weren’t so afraid of appearing “on the fringe” you’d have seen Beck on Monday, and posted this video:
http://video.foxnews.com/v/3965419/the-one-thing-111
As always, he’s ahead of you guys.
RightWinged on January 14, 2010 at 1:52 PM
Except that Beck kept pointing at the 1948 line and calling it the “Great Depression.”
Not one of Beck’s better efforts.
notropis on January 14, 2010 at 1:56 PM
I disagree. The US needs the Feds to take their hands off the wheel, and let the free market pull the economy out of this. We don’t need a change in direction, we need the gov’t to back off!
Ace ODale on January 14, 2010 at 2:04 PM
maybe someone from hotair will add the “1929 Recession” to the charts?? if normalized to to percentage population it’s likely close to the 2007 numbers.
second how about hotair holding a contest to name this “2007 Recession”?? since Great Depression’s taken and this one’s likely worse how about “Uber Depression” for my vote.
mathewsjw on January 14, 2010 at 2:06 PM
And certainly unexpected!
justltl on January 14, 2010 at 2:12 PM
I mean, who woulda thunk that wasting a few trillion dollars, taking over a few sectors of the economy, threatening to control everyone’s health care, fomenting class warfare, punishing producers, redistributing wealth, loading up your administration with commies, freaks and perverts, unleashing union goons on the populace, supporting the global warming fraud, spinelessly blaming your predecessor for everything, lying on an hourly basis, and a few dozen or so other goodies, wouldn’t have turned things right around for this country?
I, for one, am shocked.
justltl on January 14, 2010 at 2:20 PM
The Obama Depression.
MarkTheGreat on January 14, 2010 at 2:21 PM
Not sure if calling Obama and co. stupid is the right way to look at this. Especially since this was the plan, and its working out (for them) exactly the way they intended. As a smart commenter said right outta the gate-Its not a bug, its a feature.
di butler on January 14, 2010 at 2:22 PM
The Dem took over congress in 2006. That gave them two years to determine spending. That gave them two years to ignore suggestions that bank regulators should be jacked up.
The House directs or controls spending. Just because the President wants something that doen’t mean he should or ccould get it. That’s the first issue. Secondly, the Dems didn’t pull us out of the Great Depression with their spending, the Japanese did. These charts have little value.
LarryG on January 14, 2010 at 2:35 PM
you know, if you read it from right to left things don’t look that bad. Add a little bit more stimulus, throw in Obama Care, a dash of cap & trade and………tada we get a flatline, a completely dead economy.
tommer74 on January 14, 2010 at 2:36 PM
***
A very telling set of graphs. But why aren’t the current recession data plotted on the graph? Shouldn’t we consider the recession starting in 2007 the same one we are in now? Shouldn’t the red line continue down through 2008’s end and show about a 10 percent job loss?
***
The chart seems incomplete and seems to “hide the decline” since we are TWICE AS BAD in job loss now than the 5 percent or so shown on the graph.
***
Help out the old “graphically challenged” (not!) engineer to understand this.
***
John Bibb
***
rocketman on January 14, 2010 at 3:32 PM
Exactly, congress spends the money…the one problem with that is that President Bush put his veto pen away….very sad, and it hurt us terribly.
right2bright on January 14, 2010 at 3:36 PM
Wot?
justltl on January 14, 2010 at 3:41 PM
Unfortunately, this isn’t a normal recession. While true backing off and letting the market handle this would lead to the quickest recovery it would be in a time frame of around 2-5 years. In the meantime we would see 25% unemployment, do you think the country can withstand that?
I know we did in the 30’s but we weren’t as leveraged then, banks weren’t as important, and people were used to suffering. The only recent example I can think of that did was Chile under Pinochet, and there’s a good reason the country didn’t fall apart as the market did its devestating work.
It’s a decline in employment it’s measuring. So unemployment was 5%, then employment declined 5% (or unemployment increased 5%, roughly speaking) so now unemployment is 10%.
It “officially” started in 2007, it started by any normal definition in 2008.
jarodea on January 14, 2010 at 4:08 PM
Just in case anyone is still going to post in this thread, my previous statement should not in any way be read as support for what Obama is actually doing.
jarodea on January 14, 2010 at 4:22 PM
I just saw my first Recovery.Gov signs…the ones that cost $1000. each…along an empty stretch of road in Montana. The road didn’t look new or improved. I didn’t see a bridge. I also did not see one single person WORKING! There were 4 signs, with that ridiculous symbol about the American Recovery and and Reinvestment Act ’09, in this one empty area. Obviously the lines show the disaster that the “Stimulus” is, but is there a colorful line on this stooooopid chart that shows the utter waste of those signs? I want my money back. And my country!
redwhiteblue on January 14, 2010 at 4:47 PM
This confirms what I have told others:
The United States now has intrinsic or structural unemployment due to a far too large federal and also state governments.
Sapwolf on January 14, 2010 at 5:09 PM
Beck had these same charts on his TV show a few days ago … Jan 11, 2007. It’s on youtube, worth watching the whole thing if you haven’t seen it.
tarpon on January 16, 2010 at 9:22 AM
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