USA Today reports on unrealistic revenue, savings expectations in ObamaCare
posted at 2:08 pm on January 12, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
This isn’t exactly what Democrats needed as they come back to Washington DC to push through an unpopular overhaul of the American health-care system. USA Today highlights the concerns over the revenues and the savings in ObamaCare, reviewing the assumptions built into the version of the Senate bill in an evenhanded manner. The point still gets made — that there is a lot of magic in these assumptions:
Among the assumptions included in those projections:
•The Senate bill calls for $438 billion in cuts to Medicare and Medicaid over a decade. About one-fourth of the cuts come from Medicare Advantage, which are Medicare plans run by private insurers; 42% would result from trims in Medicare payments to doctors and hospitals.
A December Department of Health and Human Services (HSS) report said some of the cuts “may be unrealistic” and could reduce access to care. Rudolph Penner, a fellow at the Urban Institute, said it would be “very hard” politically for Congress to ultimately allow the cuts to occur.
Paul Van de Water, a senior fellow with the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, counters that Congress has allowed proposed Medicare cuts to go into effect in the past. “Medicare reductions have been part and parcel of most major deficit reduction efforts in recent years,” he said.
•A proposed insurance program for senior care would collect $72 billion over 10 years even though government reports have raised questions about its long-term sustainability. Current, active workers would pay into the program for five years before becoming eligible for nursing home or in-home care subsidies.
Interestingly, USAT doesn’t address the “Cadillac tax” and its revenue stream, even though it’s as likely to produce the estimated $238 billion un revenues as Congress is likely to cut Medicare benefits. That tax relies on heavily penalizing insurance companies that offer plans over a certain cash value. That will likely result in insurance companies ending those offerings and tailoring new plans that will come in just under the penalty levels. That may save some usage in the system and reduce costs at the margins, but it will also blow a big hole in ObamaCare revenue when those tax collections fail to appear. The USAT article also fails to mention the “doctor fix” that blows all of the price assumptions out of the water, and which this Congress will attempt to pass separately in order to keep the backing of the AMA.
But for an overall look at how much ObamaCare relies on unfounded assumptions, this is a good start. It shows how much these projections rely on not just the actions of this Congress, but of those in the future. They rely on future sessions not responding to complaints about lack of care and on the restraint to avoid rescinding cuts, even if — and that’s a big if — this Congress actually cuts Medicare in the end. It should provoke USAT readers to discover more about the flimsy foundation of this massive new government entitlement program, and as we have seen, the more that happens, the more people oppose it.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: 1 2 Next »
Obama set the tone immediately with unrealistic figures in speech after speech.
Frankly, no one believes the figures on this. It’s just commonsense.
AnninCA on January 12, 2010 at 2:12 PM
you know what happens when one assumes….
cmsinaz on January 12, 2010 at 2:13 PM
Magic in the assumptions….LOL
PatriotRider on January 12, 2010 at 2:13 PM
The government has underestimated the cost. What a shock. Say it isn’t so.
Apparently the real cost isn’t of any importance to the liberals. Truth is of no real importance when it clashes with their ideology.
ClanDerson on January 12, 2010 at 2:14 PM
That wasn’t mentioned because the union leader thugs met with Barry yesterday and told him to get rid of it.
Knucklehead on January 12, 2010 at 2:15 PM
The State-Run Media is starting to rebel a little bit. It’s more of a CYA move, though.
kingsjester on January 12, 2010 at 2:15 PM
Hi, Ann!
Since when do facts interfere? And common sense?
See you in the detention camps!
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 2:17 PM
This is when the CBO plays a real part. The estimates that came back were so off the page from the politicians on various versions that the politicians truly did lose credibility.
You play, you pay.
Time to ante up on public opinion.
AnninCA on January 12, 2010 at 2:17 PM
Die later?
WashJeff on January 12, 2010 at 2:17 PM
Remember when that congressman from St Louis had a townhall and people there laughed in his face? There is not “revenue” or “savings” in any governmentally run program. Unless by “revenue” you mean taxes through the roof.
Marcus on January 12, 2010 at 2:18 PM
We are a long way from the Obama White House resembling the last days of Hitler but I can’t help but feel upbeat that the tide might have turned. Who would have thought Scott Brown would be competitive? Who would have thought that the poll numbers for Obama were going to be so dismal? Who would have thought that USA Today would produce an anti-administration article?
highhopes on January 12, 2010 at 2:18 PM
One thing I do like better is that there are specific issues to discuss rather than “detention” camp talk, Liam. :)
Please. Dems may think broad programs help more people than they actually help, but we’re nowhere close to detention camps.
Now, I could argue with you that prisons today are over-populated. But we’ll save that one for another day. *hehe
AnninCA on January 12, 2010 at 2:19 PM
President Barack Hussein Obama was elected because of the expectation that he could work magic where others failed. Bring back the magic, President Barack Obama, we need you.
Bishop on January 12, 2010 at 2:19 PM
No silly,
The magic is in the beans. Once planted in the White House garden, Obama will be able to get the goose that lays the golden eggs to pay for Obamacare.
highhopes on January 12, 2010 at 2:20 PM
There was news report on Yahoo earlier today that union leaders are annoyed with the plan of taxing holders of private health insurance.
Seems the unions are now rising up against the man!
Errr…Obowmao and the Dems.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 2:20 PM
Ever notice that USAT has a whitey dialect?
chaswv on January 12, 2010 at 2:21 PM
I think I’ve figured out what the Obama Administration’s problem with the economy is.
They appear to have hired Arthur Andersen LLC to do their books, have taken ‘job creation’ advice from an Enron-adviser-turned-NYT-columnist and were selling wee and coke when they were supposed to be attending their economics classes in college.
All of this taken together = B+ for economics.
Good Lt on January 12, 2010 at 2:23 PM
Maybe, hon. But if you recall, there was that phone line to report people with ‘fishy’ ideas? Not even Bush set that one up!
Hell, Nixon didn’t even do that!
Where does that leave us?
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 2:23 PM
Not to worry the Unions will fall in line like all dems…..forget about em…
Independents and lazy republicans are the key……….
nondhimmie on January 12, 2010 at 2:24 PM
I prefer that Town Hall where Claire McCaskill asked point blank if her constituents trusted her and got back a resounding no. You just can’t buy stuff like that.
highhopes on January 12, 2010 at 2:25 PM
“You know what happens you make an assumption? You make an ass of you, and umption.”
ladyingray on January 12, 2010 at 2:26 PM
God, I hope we get good results on 1/19/10. The other NY – Rep race was bad news. We need good news.
Oil Can on January 12, 2010 at 2:26 PM
The article doesn’t even mention the big gimmick used to get the CBO to score the “healthcare” plan as “deficit neutral” for the first 10 years — the fact that the fees and taxes kick in right away, while the benefits don’t kick in for years (this despite the fact that the bill must be passed right away because people are dying for lack of health insurance !!!!11!!!). Why doesn’t the article tell people what the “healthcare” plan will do to the deficit in the second decade (and all those that follow), when that gimmick can no longer be used?
AZCoyote on January 12, 2010 at 2:26 PM
Seriously, the Democrats have made a laughing stock of themselves, but we are still in too much danger from them to really laugh at them.
Soon, very soon.
ConservativeTony on January 12, 2010 at 2:27 PM
But only when they choose to use it.
Mulligan on January 12, 2010 at 2:27 PM
Nonsense . . . there’s no magic and there never was. There’s just false expectations by naïve dreamers of a less than qualified man. if somebody doesn’t interject some adult supervision into this political sham the country will be totally destroyed.
rplat on January 12, 2010 at 2:27 PM
Bullsh*t.
We need MORE people in prison, and more prisons. It deters crime – particularly violent crime. You commit crimes, you go to jail.
We also need to build a prison on the Capitol Mall for politicians who break laws. And fill it.
Good Lt on January 12, 2010 at 2:28 PM
It’s the old flim-flam — or maybe we should call it the “okey-doke” to use Barack Obama’s Negro dialect. Pass something with the flimsiest of assumptions to get the cost number you think will sell to an inattentive public. Then when the ginormous costs start to roll in, you puit a gun to thei heads and say, “which is it gonne be? Tax increases or pulling the plug on Grandma?”
Not only does this extended entitlement create a new class of dependent voters, it gives the Democrats an automatic campaign attack from now on.
rockmom on January 12, 2010 at 2:28 PM
That’s just for show. The unions know that they won’t get everything they want so the union leadership is growling to avoid accusations that they rolled over and played dead with the administration. Make no mistake that the fix is in for healthcare and it will take a minor miracle for healthcare to fail when the cards are so stacked in favor of the radical socialist agenda.
highhopes on January 12, 2010 at 2:29 PM
Hey you two lovebirds, do us a favor and get a room.
Knucklehead on January 12, 2010 at 2:29 PM
Keep in mind one thing, friends: No matter what is reported, the Dems will NOT modify their plans, views, and intentions. No matter the cost, and no matter any MSM critique, the Dems will stay their course. They cannot imagine being wrong on any count.
We, on the other hand according to them, are the ignorant ones.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 2:30 PM
Bobby Casey was hounded yesterday in Harrisburg by pro-life activists. Pennsylvania is not buying his pro-life shtick anymore.
rockmom on January 12, 2010 at 2:30 PM
Which is why the adminstration claimed that this legislation had to pass by the August recess. The public is far too attentive, educated, and organized for Congress to play fast and loose with the process. I think it will be political suicide when Reid/Pelosi bend to White House pressure and abandon the normal legislative process for dealmaking and skulking in the shadows.
highhopes on January 12, 2010 at 2:32 PM
Does it really matter? They’re going forward, they’ll claim a victory, and paint the GOP as the Death Party.
BKeyser on January 12, 2010 at 2:33 PM
You mean Obama can’t be everything to everyone at anytime?
Deflated EgObama.
portlandon on January 12, 2010 at 2:33 PM
The house version relies on new taxes on high earners.
They assume that high earners will do nothing to evade these taxes.
So the house’s revenue assumptions are as much smoke and mirror as are the senate’s.
(And this is before calculating in the added impact of the expiration of the Bush tax cuts.)
MarkTheGreat on January 12, 2010 at 2:33 PM
So, let me get this stratight…. the taxes and the cuts to Medicare and Medicaid start right away, but the “free” healthcare doesn’t kick in for another five years?
Great plan! What could go wrong?
UltimateBob on January 12, 2010 at 2:33 PM
In a lot of ways. you’re right. But I know many union people and, when it comes to costs, they don’t like it. Not an attack against union people of course; no one likes passing his hard-earned wage to others.
Union leaders can be voted out, and Obamacare threatens their power. Right or wrong, I’m seeing a potential sea change.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 2:34 PM
Expand medicare and medicaid to everyone, even as both those programs are going bankrupt.
Great idea. /sarc
MarkTheGreat on January 12, 2010 at 2:35 PM
I think there’s more to it than that. The unions want their Nebraska Payoff.
LibTired on January 12, 2010 at 2:36 PM
Is it snowing in hell today?
Mark Boabaca on January 12, 2010 at 2:36 PM
Obama: Presto, Change-O, watch me rob you blind!
capejasmine on January 12, 2010 at 2:36 PM
That’s why the LA Times called him the magic Negro.
SouthernGent on January 12, 2010 at 2:37 PM
Revel in this time! The Dems are assailed even among their own ranks.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 2:37 PM
The problem is not that there are too few people in jail. But rather too many of the wrong people are in jail. If people who are a danger to no one but themselves weren’t being locked up, there would be more room for the truely dangerous.
MarkTheGreat on January 12, 2010 at 2:39 PM
From The Heritage Center’s newsletter this afternoon:
Mark Boabaca on January 12, 2010 at 2:42 PM
Agreed, this part of the Obama-Pelosi-Reid bait and switch is incredibly dishonest. I am amazed that the MSM, even as leftwing as it is, hasn’t pounded on this.
jwolf on January 12, 2010 at 2:44 PM
Facts be damned, these extremists are passing ObamaCare.
bloviator on January 12, 2010 at 2:44 PM
Parts of the MSM are now consuming even their own. All the Left’s dichotomies are beginning to clash, showing that the liberal mindset cannot last and never could.
They’re Lincoln’s classic statement about divided houses.
History is unfolding before our eyes! Socialism is soooo 19th Century, of a time of sweatshops and child labor. That’s long ago and far away.
the only ones who will never grasp that are llliberals.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 2:45 PM
This is what happens when you “stick it to the rich” (highlights mine):
Most important to keep in mind is the Congress had spent the anticipated but never realized tax revenue. Did they ever cut the programs that were supposed to be paid for by this luxury tax? Nope. We’re still funding them through general revenue taxes.
The same will happen here.
BobMbx on January 12, 2010 at 2:46 PM
What you have to love is the taxes going up, medicare being cut and that supposed ‘income’ will be used to build a massive bureaucracy… in theory.
Now what this actually does is put a large pot of money out there that can’t be spent that quickly as it takes a looong time to create a massive bureaucracy, and this is the IRS we are talking about who can’t get their computer systems upgraded for over a decade. You know the folks who keep all of your data on 1.5″ of spooled tape?
So what is it that Congress does with lots of unspent money just laying around with no quick way to spend it?
Can you say: GRAFT? New programs? And when/if the money gets drawn down year on year they will have to raise taxes to fund the extra stuff they have created with that lovely first few pots of free cash. Its a two-fer of Big Government!
And nothing written in any bill will stop that as the very next bill can countermand it… say in some ‘necessary’ funding bill that ‘must’ pass. And by the time the IRS has gotten some creaky thing stood up the stuff it was supposed to deliver has expanded in cost because ‘funding expectations weren’t met’ by ‘income’… because it was spent. A long-term three-fer of increasing Big Government.
ajacksonian on January 12, 2010 at 2:47 PM
They’re not lovebirds! Liam is just trying to bring Ann to the light.
AsianGirlInTights on January 12, 2010 at 2:48 PM
Hi, hon!
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 2:51 PM
It’s not about health care. It’s about power, money, and control — typical democrat corruption.
Dhuka on January 12, 2010 at 2:52 PM
Total agreement, here.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 2:53 PM
Ed- you left the best one out.
over 80% of the revenue projected from the Cadillac plan taxes are not from the taxes themselves- but from the EXPECTED income taxes once companies drop the expensive plans and give the savings back to the workers as higher wages.
Begin laughing.
Chuck Schick on January 12, 2010 at 2:56 PM
Every dem interviewed on TV show should be asked to look in to the camera and to answer the question..”do you really think that we the people believe you when you say that the health care legislation will not add to the deficit?”
Spider79 on January 12, 2010 at 2:57 PM
Let me be clear. As I have always said, the time for talk is over. We must act now. This unprecedented plan is unsustainable, as brought on by the previous administration.
Daggett on January 12, 2010 at 2:58 PM
Which dialect is that, Northern, Southern, Western or maybe Urban Jive? I’m not familiar with that one.
belad on January 12, 2010 at 3:00 PM
Dems like making ‘projections’, but they really base those on what they expect–deciding on their own predetermined conclusions while ignoring the ramifications of their policies. In other words: delusion.
In the real world there is the reality of cause-and-effect. Libs don’t grasp that basic concept. That’s partly why they keep needing to change their own rules.
In that vein, that’s why I stopped being a liberal and became a staunch Conservative.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 3:03 PM
Hi Liam!
Ann isn’t really going to change. Ever. She’s just a liberal pretending to be a moderate.
AsianGirlInTights on January 12, 2010 at 3:04 PM
Actually, Ann used to be hard-core lib. Now, she’s widely different.
(Apologies, Ann…I’m saying what I see with no impositions intended)
If Ann was a troll, she’s had the mind to at least see other ideas. Ann isn’t like simplesimon, crr6, and all the others who hold steadfast to their ideology no matter what. Ann has an independent mind, which is what is best on a per-person basis.
Time will tell. In times past, I see a valuable person who’s been willing to listen to use. To use an adage, nothing is worse than reformed smoker.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 3:14 PM
Seems no other quote quite works for me but this one: “Welcome to the party pal.” – John McClane Die Hard
Branch Rickey on January 12, 2010 at 3:17 PM
I agree Liam.
I don’t think Ann’s a troll, and nothing like simplesimon and crr6 and those. But I think she is a liberal pretending to be a moderate. Sorry for going OT…
AsianGirlInTights on January 12, 2010 at 3:18 PM
I see no pretense in her. She has come to a middle, after having been liberal for a year.
People need to come to their own understanding, in their own time.
(Again, Ann, apologies for speaking of you as a third person)
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 3:23 PM
Did I hear someone mention Bruce Willis????
;p
ladyingray on January 12, 2010 at 3:29 PM
Obama: “Let me be perfectly clear, make no mistake, this is not the USA today I thought I knew.”
mwdiver on January 12, 2010 at 3:30 PM
Take whatever estimate government gives you, add 200% to the cost and take away 15% of your liberty. That formula is about right.
search4truth on January 12, 2010 at 3:33 PM
FIFY
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 3:40 PM
Get a room! *retch
ladyingray on January 12, 2010 at 3:42 PM
Interesting–
I thought me caring about friends is being on the same side as you. Guess I was wrong, guess I should go back to being a lib.
Want me to do that? I didn’t say a thing about sex, but, if you want to be a Con with an issue, I’ll go back to being a lib, just for fun.
Kindly retract your insult to me, to denigrate me.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 3:47 PM
Only a lib would attack like you just did.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 3:50 PM
It’s ok Liam.
AsianGirlInTights on January 12, 2010 at 3:52 PM
We’re just commenting. Nothing to get excited about. I’m sorry if you were offended.
AsianGirlInTights on January 12, 2010 at 3:53 PM
It’s OK when when the attacker retracts his/her nonsense.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 3:53 PM
There was no cause for an assault against you, by a Con.
Call me nuts, call me hardcore or what-not. I don’t suffer BS lightly.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 3:55 PM
BTW–you did nothing for which to apologize.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 3:57 PM
I’m sorry I offended you. It was meant to be a joke. Lesson learned.
ladyingray on January 12, 2010 at 3:57 PM
We’re OK, then! All is well; it never happened.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 3:59 PM
LOL! It was just a joke man. Lighten up.
DarkCurrent on January 12, 2010 at 4:01 PM
It seems to me that I am seeing a lot more critical press of the Democrats and their policies here lately. About time.
Terrye on January 12, 2010 at 4:01 PM
Joke? What joke? Nothing happened here; move along. ~wink~
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 4:05 PM
Thanks DC!
AsianGirlInTights on January 12, 2010 at 4:10 PM
She’s no lib, as you should know by now. Perhaps you might consider an apology as well.
DarkCurrent on January 12, 2010 at 4:17 PM
Now you’re pushing an issue that need not be pushed, where YOU aren’t relevant. That, on your part, is an imposition.
I and the Lady are on common terms, and YOUR imposition is of yourself alone. Why are you forcing yourself into an issue that has nothing to do with you?
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 4:22 PM
BTW–my post was an hor ago and more has gone on since. Get current, would you, please? I’m not in mood for more combat but I won’t balk at engagement.
Leave it rest, OK? I made peace best I can; all is fine on my end. But if you want a fight, I’m going to engage. Take your pick, read past you.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 4:26 PM
Because you insulted the lady.
DarkCurrent on January 12, 2010 at 4:29 PM
We either leave things as they are, or we engage. Up to you.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 4:30 PM
Without further details, she and I are on common ground. Is that not enough, or is it too much?
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 4:31 PM
Ok, come on :) What are you going to do, hit me?
DarkCurrent on January 12, 2010 at 4:32 PM
Really–let’s end this fast. You need to read back a lot, and get a clue. Quit trying to play the role of hero, okay? I’m fine with the Lady. YOU are messing that up.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 4:33 PM
You didn’t apologize for your slander as a gentleman would.
DarkCurrent on January 12, 2010 at 4:34 PM
That was weak, man. Aren’t you better than that kind of crap, when I’m trying to defuse this and you’re not?
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 4:35 PM
The Lady set the standard. I backed off, so between her and I all is well as I know.
How about letting her speak to me instead of you?
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 4:36 PM
I guess we’ve taken the thread OT far enough Liam.
I concede you are not the gentleman I thought you.
DarkCurrent on January 12, 2010 at 4:38 PM
Everyone with more than a double digit IQ knows that Health care reform is going to cost several trillion dollars at the minimum. Longer term, in the tens of trillions as the private sector drops out of health care altogether.
Remind me again how much Social Security and Medicare were NOT supposed to cost. Current unfunded mandate-$107 trillion.
patrick neid on January 12, 2010 at 4:40 PM
Know what? You denigrated the Lady by your chosen ineffect to let me end a combat that was ended an hour ago. This fight need not have been done, but YOU kept it going anyway.
As you wish, so you will have. I made peace with the Lady but YOU need to keep pushing. I imagine she’ll be so proud that YOU kept her from a potential friend.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 4:40 PM
That’s YOUR problem, not mine. When, in the end between me and the Lady, I said clearly the contention never happened; my slate is clean.
Yours, in need to be right, is not.
That’s YOUR problem, not mine.
A clue: get over yourself.
Liam on January 12, 2010 at 4:43 PM
Comment pages: 1 2 Next »