Gallup: Partisan gap down to five points in fourth quarter

posted at 9:30 am on January 7, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Gallup toplines its year-on-year average in the partisan identification gap, and suggests that the big story is that Democrats fell below a majority of support for the first time in three years.  That’s an interesting trend, but Gallup then also notes that the averaging obscures an even more pronounced trend during the year which took Democrats from a 13-point advantage all the way down to five points:

The year 2009 marked the end of a three-year run of majority Democratic support among U.S. adults. Last year, an average of 49.0% of Americans identified as Democrats or said they leaned Democratic, the party’s first yearly average below 50% since 2005. Still, Democrats maintained an average eight-point advantage in support over Republicans last year, as 40.7% of Americans identified as Republicans or leaned Republican.

The 2009 results are based on aggregated data from all Gallup and USA Today/Gallup polls conducted last year, encompassing interviews with more than 21,000 Americans. In each poll, Gallup asks Americans whether they consider themselves Republicans, Democrats, or independents. Independents are subsequently asked if they lean to the Republican or Democratic Party.

The 2009 yearly averages do not tell the whole story of changes in party support last year, as they to some degree obscure the sharp decline in the Democrats’ advantage over the course of the year. In the first quarter of 2009, coincident with the beginning of the Obama administration, Democrats enjoyed one of the largest advantages for either party since 1991, 13 percentage points (51.7% of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, versus 38.7% who identified as or leaned Republican). In each subsequent quarter, the percentage of Democratic supporters declined, and by the fourth quarter, the Democratic advantage had shrunk to 5 points (47.2% to 42.2%).

The Gallup numbers from 2008 don’t hold up well compared to the election.  After all, Barack Obama won the presidential vote by seven points — a strong showing, especially considering the close votes in the preceding two elections.  No one, though, postulated that Obama had a problem of leaking Democrats to John McCain.  In order to believe the 2008 average gap of almost 13 points in favor of Democrats, one would have to also believe that Obama barely kept half of his advantage over McCain, rather than the crossover Republican votes bolstering Obama’s total, as exit polling clearly showed.

So Gallup’s survey of adults as opposed to actual or likely voters had its problems anyway in overly favoring Democrats.  After all, the entire purpose of these polls is to predict the outcomes of elections.  If Gallup’s survey overreported Democratic support in 2008, it’s probably doing the same now — and now that gap is only 5%.  Rasmussen has the partisan gap at 1.5%, a difference of only three points, or about half of how much Gallup missed the mark in 2008.  Either one would be bad news for Democrats, and the Gallup findings largely parallel and corroborate Rasmussen’s.

Unlike Rasmussen,which showed this trend as almost entirely an erosion of Democratic support, Gallup shows some gains for the GOP.  They have picked up almost 3.5 points since the beginning of the year, while Democrats have lost 4.5 points.  That’s even worse for the Democrats heading into the midterms.


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Don’t bother clicking on the link, it leads to a crayon drawing apparently done by a five year old.

Bishop on January 7, 2010 at 9:31 AM

Hide the decline!

Mojave Mark on January 7, 2010 at 9:32 AM

Can we call Obama divisive yet?

artist on January 7, 2010 at 9:34 AM

I can totally understand the growth in support for the GOP. I mean, when they… um… well, the way they have… uh… it was awesome how they…

myrenovations on January 7, 2010 at 9:34 AM

Can we call Obama divisive yet?

artist on January 7, 2010 at 9:34 AM

Only if you want to be called racist.

Doughboy on January 7, 2010 at 9:34 AM

Unlike Rasmussen,which showed this trend as almost entirely an erosion of Democratic support, Gallup shows some gains for the GOP. They have picked up almost 3.5 points since the beginning of the year, while Democrats have lost 4.5 points. That’s even worse for the Democrats heading into the midterms.

Good news. Now if only the GOP could recruit some fiscal conservative, small government candidates to run against these unpopular Democrats. . .

rbj on January 7, 2010 at 9:35 AM

Don’t bother clicking on the link, it leads to a crayon drawing apparently done by a five year old.

Bishop on January 7, 2010 at 9:31 AM

Careful, that’s actually done by a “reformed” terrorist, er, man-made disasterist. If he thinks you are making fun of him, he might try and blow up a plane. And it will be your fault, not his.

/sarc.

rbj on January 7, 2010 at 9:37 AM

A more useful survey would be for people to rate themselves on a scale (1 to 10, 1 to 5, etc.) where 1 is a large, far-reaching, socialists like government and 10 is anarchy (or something more reasonable).

WashJeff on January 7, 2010 at 9:43 AM

The Titanic is begining to list…

lovingmyUSA on January 7, 2010 at 9:44 AM

All that despite having 98% of the MSM fluffing Obama and the donks.

jukin on January 7, 2010 at 9:46 AM

WashJeff on January 7, 2010 at 9:43 AM

10.

OldEnglish on January 7, 2010 at 9:46 AM

If only the GOP were ready to lead.

SouthernGent on January 7, 2010 at 9:46 AM

Can we call Obama divisive yet?

artist on January 7, 2010 at 9:34 AM

Divisive? He’s pretty much loathed by individuals across the ideological spectrum. If anything, he’s brought America together!

Conservatives bring the pitchforks, moderates bring the torches, independents bring the tar, libertarians bring the feathers, everybody else bring the posters.

highhopes on January 7, 2010 at 9:48 AM

The Titanic is begining to list…

lovingmyUSA on January 7, 2010 at 9:44 AM

lovingmyUSA:Its all those perpetual political icebergs
that Hopey/Changey keeps ramming!:)

canopfor on January 7, 2010 at 9:49 AM

Red Light up at Drudge:

White House approves 1 hour of Health Care Debate Coverage on CSPAN.

milwife88 on January 7, 2010 at 9:50 AM

10

OldEnglish on January 7, 2010 at 9:46 AM

I will start having my cat sleep with my dogs then.

WashJeff on January 7, 2010 at 9:51 AM

White House approves 1 hour of Health Care

Debate

Pimping Coverage on CSPAN.

milwife88 on January 7, 2010 at 9:50 AM

During the BCS Championship game tonight?

WashJeff on January 7, 2010 at 9:52 AM

Only 5 points difference… how in the hell is CBS supposed to be able to conduct a poll with the proper results?

CC

CapedConservative on January 7, 2010 at 9:54 AM

WashJeff on January 7, 2010 at 9:52 AM

It doesn’t say. When I click on the headline it goes back to the main page. I’ll keep an eye on it.

milwife88 on January 7, 2010 at 9:54 AM

WashJeff on January 7, 2010 at 9:51 AM

That’s if the cat will let them.

OldEnglish on January 7, 2010 at 9:55 AM

How can the White House approve of televised debate coverage when the debate is between the two chambers of Congress?

myrenovations on January 7, 2010 at 9:55 AM

White House approves 1 hour of Health Care Debate Coverage on CSPAN.

Tape delayed to air at 1:45am in each timezone

TheVer on January 7, 2010 at 9:56 AM

Even more partisan than Rasmussen! Has to be political, just crafting polls to help the GOP! /froth froth

Midas on January 7, 2010 at 9:57 AM

myrenovations on January 7, 2010 at 9:55 AM

That’s a great question. I was wondering the same thing myself. I would ask, who do they think they are, but I already know.

milwife88 on January 7, 2010 at 9:57 AM

How can the White House approve of televised debate coverage when the debate is between the two chambers of Congress?

myrenovations on January 7, 2010 at 9:55 AM

Debate should having been: pimping, horse trading, etc.

WashJeff on January 7, 2010 at 9:58 AM

Tape delayed to air at 1:45am in each timezone

TheVer on January 7, 2010 at 9:56 AM

don’t forget scripted like all reality shows.

milwife88 on January 7, 2010 at 9:58 AM

Looks like the “Era of the Progressives” didn’t even last as long as the 3rd Reich.

GarandFan on January 7, 2010 at 9:59 AM

Divisive? He’s pretty much loathed by individuals across the ideological spectrum. If anything, he’s brought America together!

highhopes on January 7, 2010 at 9:48 AM

highhopes: I cannot find the video,but,Mark Steyn was host
ing,Hannitys Great American Panel,and an African
American Liberal,said,Obama has lost the Left,and
the right,in between and Independants,my jaw,almo
st hit the floor!!:)

canopfor on January 7, 2010 at 9:59 AM

“Tis the winter of our discontent.

January will be the low-water mark for dems, followed by stabilization and gradual improvement into an elections where losses will sure sting, but not overwhelm.

Bleeds Blue on January 7, 2010 at 10:00 AM

The Titanic is begining to list…

lovingmyUSA on January 7, 2010 at 9:44 AM

So that’s why the White House keeps rearranging the deck chairs!

Laura in Maryland on January 7, 2010 at 10:00 AM

Looks like the “Era of the Progressives” didn’t even last as long as the 3rd Reich.

GarandFan on January 7, 2010 at 9:59 AM

GarandFan: Only nine hundred and three years short!:)

canopfor on January 7, 2010 at 10:01 AM

White House approves 1 hour of Health Care Debate Coverage on CSPAN.

The peasants are grateful!

The GOP should disrupt the entire hour, demanding MORE coverage.

artist on January 7, 2010 at 10:01 AM

Crap,correction,thats nine hundred and ninety nine years short!!

canopfor on January 7, 2010 at 10:02 AM

Red Light up at Drudge:

White House approves 1 hour of Health Care Debate Coverage on CSPAN.

milwife88 on January 7, 2010 at 9:50 AM

One hour, announced well in advance.

Shouldn’t be hard for the Dems to find a couple of members willing to fill that hour with speeches touting the fact that this bill will cause sunshine and roses to fly from everyone’s butt from now till eternity.

MarkTheGreat on January 7, 2010 at 10:03 AM

White House approves 1 hour of Health Care Debate Coverage on CSPAN.

but do we get to watch it while in the soup line, or the cheese line?

ted c on January 7, 2010 at 10:04 AM

artist on January 7, 2010 at 10:01 AM

Silly…the GOP will not be there. They are only letting CSPAN in.
/

milwife88 on January 7, 2010 at 10:04 AM

Looks like the “Era of the Progressives” didn’t even last as long as the 3rd Reich.
GarandFan on January 7, 2010 at 9:59 AM

Sad, considering how much they have in common.

Bishop on January 7, 2010 at 10:05 AM

“Tis the winter of our discontent.

January will be the low-water mark for dems, followed by stabilization and gradual improvement into an elections where losses will sure sting, but not overwhelm.

Bleeds Blue on January 7, 2010 at 10:00 AM

Bleeds Blue: Thats the spirit,just before France fell!!

canopfor on January 7, 2010 at 10:05 AM

ted c on January 7, 2010 at 10:04 AM

There’s a soup line? Now we don’t have to go to KFC anymore and lick other peoples fingers. Yippie! :)

milwife88 on January 7, 2010 at 10:06 AM

Careful, that’s actually done by a “reformed” terrorist, er, man-made disasterist. If he thinks you are making fun of him, he might try and blow up a plane. And it will be your fault, not his.

/sarc.

rbj on January 7, 2010 at 9:37 AM

Talk about living in interesting times…art classes for terrorists. What an amazing concept.

zeebeach on January 7, 2010 at 10:08 AM

Can we call Obama divisive yet?

artist on January 7, 2010 at 9:34 AM

You cannot divide by Zero.

GnuBreed on January 7, 2010 at 10:11 AM

There’s a soup line? Now we don’t have to go to KFC anymore and lick other peoples fingers. Yippie! :)

milwife88 on January 7, 2010 at 10:06 AM

Sure. Today’s special is Not Victory Soup. Someone said it smells like Teen Spirit, or something…

ted c on January 7, 2010 at 10:13 AM

We can ALWAYS count on Bleeds Blue to make some a-hole type of prognostication – based solely on wishful thinking. Go back to Kos, you clown.

alwyr on January 7, 2010 at 10:14 AM

Silly…the GOP will not be there. They are only letting CSPAN in.

milwife88 on January 7, 2010 at 10:04 AM

Which is a good thing. I do not want GOP legislator near this bill.

WashJeff on January 7, 2010 at 10:17 AM

“Tis the winter of our discontent.

January will be the low-water mark for dems, followed by stabilization and gradual improvement into an elections where losses will sure sting, but not overwhelm.

Bleeds Blue on January 7, 2010 at 10:00 AM

Hahahahahah…….aaaahhhhahahahahaha.

This attitude does a disservice to your beloved leaders and to the country since it is not based in reality. It is shared by the mainstream media. However, I sincerely hope you continue to believe this.

Amazing.

Youngs98 on January 7, 2010 at 10:18 AM

White House approves 1 hour of Health Care Debate Coverage on CSPAN.

I thought they had already finished the bill. Is CSPAN going to show the Dems high-fiving each other for an hour?

tims472 on January 7, 2010 at 10:21 AM

White House approves 1 hour of Health Care Debate Coverage on CSPAN.

Thank you sir, may I have another!

Laura in Maryland on January 7, 2010 at 10:22 AM

Bleeds Blue: Thats the spirit,just before France fell!!
canopfor on January 7, 2010 at 10:05 AM

“We will use Dien Bien Phu to entice the North Vietnamese into a decisive battle where they will be destroyed.”

Bishop on January 7, 2010 at 10:22 AM

After the hour is Barry, Pelosi, and Reid going to rush over and put their hands over the camera lens?

tims472 on January 7, 2010 at 10:23 AM

Bleeds Blue: Thats the spirit,just before France fell!!
canopfor on January 7, 2010 at 10:05 AM
——————————————-

“We will use Dien Bien Phu to entice the North Vietnamese into a decisive battle where they will be destroyed.”

Bishop on January 7, 2010 at 10:22 AM

Bishop: I just watched that massascre,two nights ago!:)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fa1U2z9GTr8&feature=related

canopfor on January 7, 2010 at 10:27 AM

Re: Gallup: Will they now adjust their party IDs in their polls accordingly? If so Barry will free-fall quickly.

tims472 on January 7, 2010 at 10:30 AM

Clarification on CSPAN coverage

http://www.breitbart.tv/c-span-ceo-white-house-has-allowed-only-one-hour-of-health-care-coverage/

This is not something they are doing now. It was an informal “staged” debate that took place in the WH.

Listen to the interview.

milwife88 on January 7, 2010 at 10:40 AM

We are still stuck on stupid though…

Still the Stupid Party
Do Republicans really deserve to win big in 2010?

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NGM0ZmJlZmU0Yzg2YjM5YmIzM2M1YzEyN2JmNDcwODA=

lovingmyUSA on January 7, 2010 at 10:41 AM

This article makes the point many of us have been saying for years.
liberals are constantly having to tell everybody how smart they are because it does not show.
They are pretty much the guy who walks up and is always bragging about the women he is sleeping with but you never,ever see him with one.


The Intellectual Dishonesty of the Democrats

By Lauri B. Regan
http://www.americanthinker.com/printpage/?url=http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/01/the_intellectual_dishonesty_of.html

That night, I was watching Bill O’Reilly’s show, and in his Reality Check segment, he featured Rebecca Mead, a writer for The New Yorker magazine, who appeared on CBS’s “Sunday Morning” talk show lambasting Bush and praising Obama as a “certified intellectual.” Upon what does she base this claim?

All we know about Obama is that he graduated from Columbia University, was an Alinskyite community organizer, went to Harvard Law School, and worked as a law school lecturer before running for public office. He has received the author’s credit for two books, though it is an open question how much he relied on ghostwriters. We have not seen his school transcripts, and he wrote not one single signed article while acting as president of the Harvard Law Review or as a law school instructor. We have no idea what Obama’s intellectual aptitude is, and to claim that he is a “certified intellectual” is absurd.

Which is a point Republicans made over and over and over during the election.

It appears that all you have to do is “speak well” and have a command of a “thesaurus” and liberals will declare you not only intellectually superior,but more than qualified for the position of POTUS, without ever really actually accomplishing anything in your life.

We are constantly hearing about how super smart,highly intellectual they are and about how everybody that does not sign on to their ideology are a bunch of bigoted Neanderthals.

But the glaring problem with these faux claims by liberals is that it never shows in their actions.

There is no better example of intellectual dishonesty than Climategate. After Al Gore left the restaurant, the waiter walked over to our table laughing. But when we raised the Climategate fiasco, the waiter had no idea what we were talking about. The fraud pervasive in the scientific community is just as rampant in the mainstream media that is failing to adequately investigate and report on this extremely important story.

But the MSM will turn right around and spend hour after hour explaining how fantastically smart the Gore’s and Obama’s are.

There are little to no actual results that they are successful at or can brag about.
This is one of the main reasons we are a full year into Obama’s Presidency and liberals are still whining and blaming Bush, because they have no achievements to bolster themselves on.

The stimulus….a failure…….


……Global Waring……..a con job and failure….


……..treating terrorism as a criminal act (reference Clinton Administration and the current one)….a failure that led to many lost American lives….


…Constantly saying we would lose the war in Iraq…..100% wrong and now Iraq is a growing democracy…..


….”smart power” is a major joke internationally and domestically……

….Cities and states run by majority democrats like New York…Michigan…..California…..are completely bankrupt,crime ridden,with terrible scholastic drop out rates.


….the democrats were the ones to fight so hard to protect Fannie/Freddie from being controlled with stricter oversight (remember all the “racist” and “don’t care about the little people” rants from democrats) which lead to the sub-prime disaster…..Now Obama has taken off any controls and given them unlimited funds to pay off their debt (with our money of course)……


….strict gun laws or wanting to repeal the 2nd amendment….cities with some of the worst crime have the strictest gun laws.Vast majority of studies show that strict gun laws actually contribute to high crime rates….

These are just a few of the disastrous stands and policies the “adults” instituted (or have tried to) with terrible results.

The way liberals counter this dismal record is to simply keep repeating how “smart they are” and demonize anyone who does not fall into lock step.

Watching Pelosi this week proclaim “there has never been a more open process” is just another example of liberal talking points going totally against the reality on the ground.

On and on and on and on liberalism/socialism is shown
to be ignorant and nothing but a failure.

Well America is catching on quick so liberals better get use to results like these:
(via drudge)

Conservatives Finish 2009 as No. 1 Ideological Group
Uptick owing largely to more independents calling themselves conservative
by Lydia Saad
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124958/Conservatives-Finish-2009-No-1-Ideological-Group.aspx


PRINCETON, NJ — The increased conservatism that Gallup first identified among Americans last June persisted throughout the year, so that the final year-end political ideology figures confirm Gallup’s initial reporting: conservatives (40%) outnumbered both moderates (36%) and liberals (21%) across the nation in 2009.


“YES WE CAN!!!”

Baxter Greene on January 7, 2010 at 10:45 AM

The Intellectual Dishonesty of the Democrats
By Lauri B. Regan
http://www.americanthinker.com/printpage/?url=http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/01/the_intellectual_dishonesty_of.html

(VIA INSTAPUNDIT)

Baxter Greene on January 7, 2010 at 10:49 AM

Bleeds Blue is ever the optimist.

I’m normally a pessimist, but even I can see the ship of state taking on water, and one or two people bailing furiously with strainers.

hachiban on January 7, 2010 at 10:50 AM

Hahahahahah…….aaaahhhhahahahahaha.

This attitude does a disservice to your beloved leaders and to the country since it is not based in reality. It is shared by the mainstream media. However, I sincerely hope you continue to believe this.

Amazing.

Youngs98 on January 7, 2010 at 10:18 AM

Yeah, keep counting those chickens….

Note I didn’t say that we’d emerge triumphant. Just that we’d beat the spread.

Bleeds Blue on January 7, 2010 at 10:50 AM

Baxter Greene on January 7, 2010 at 10:45 AM

Excellent–I am hoping that we will have a chance to gloat after 2010…

lovingmyUSA on January 7, 2010 at 10:55 AM

If only the GOP were ready to lead.

SouthernGent on January 7, 2010 at 9:46 AM

They can’t be worse than the Dems. I hope.

nyx on January 7, 2010 at 11:05 AM

“Tis the winter of our discontent.

January will be the low-water mark for dems, followed by stabilization and gradual improvement into an elections where losses will sure sting, but not overwhelm.

Bleeds Blue on January 7, 2010 at 10:00 AM

“Baghdad Bob” comment of the day!

mr.blacksheep on January 7, 2010 at 11:07 AM

Excellent–I am hoping that we will have a chance to gloat after 2010…

lovingmyUSA on January 7, 2010 at 10:55 AM

I think we will certainly be more optimistic towards 2012 if we deliver a clear,conservative message from strong candidates.

The democrats are in serious trouble and have been reduced to begging the Ed Shultz’s to run because they will have to rely on paparazzi standards instead of being able to run on the success of their issues.

The “blaming Bush” strategy will be laughable and certainly expose the ineptness and lack of solutions in the democratic party.

Like you pointed out above….Republicans still have the ability to screw this up if they take Rhino positions,go third party,don’t defend their policies aggressively,and don’t present a clear and concise message to the American people.

The liberal press will be in full blown partisan mode to protect the democratic majorities and Obama.

Republicans need to utilize all forms of communications and meet the bias in the MSM aggressively by calling them out with specific acts of bias right on their very shows.

With only 17% of this country believing the press does a good,objective job,I don’t understand why Republicans don’t call them out more.
They are going to have to this year if they want to destroy the liberal filter and get their message out.

Baxter Greene on January 7, 2010 at 11:11 AM

This is all fine and good. But if Republicans elected are Lindsey Graham or Susan Collins types, does it really matter? Remember Arlen Specter was a Republican this time last year.

And given the Scuzzy fiasco I’m not holding my breath that 2010 will bring much change.

angryed on January 7, 2010 at 11:29 AM

“Tis the winter of our discontent.

January will be the low-water mark for dems, followed by stabilization and gradual improvement into an elections where losses will sure sting, but not overwhelm.

Bleeds Blue on January 7, 2010 at 10:00 AM

LOLZ.

BB you would have been a good propaganda minster for Hitler in 1945. Yea sure we’re in the bunker and Berlin is in ruins, but we see positive developments happening later in the year.

angryed on January 7, 2010 at 11:31 AM

Looks like the “Era of the Progressives” didn’t even last as long as the 3rd Reich.

GarandFan on January 7, 2010 at 9:59 AM

..with three times as many Stalingrads.

VoyskaPVO on January 7, 2010 at 11:56 AM