Top Obama advisors: We no longer believe the 2007 NIE on Iran’s weapons program

posted at 5:42 pm on January 2, 2010 by Allahpundit

An “oh, by the way” detail buried in a long Times piece about recent setbacks to Iran’s nuclear program. This isn’t really a secret — officials as high up as Panetta were mumbling about weaponization as far back as February and the U.S. intel community generally has been inching away from the document for months — but after all the leftist screeching about warmongering and politicized intelligence when the NIE came out and declared Iran’s weapons program dead since ’03, it deserves a little extra attention.

Mr. Obama’s top advisers say they no longer believe the key finding of a much disputed National Intelligence Estimate about Iran, published a year before President George W. Bush left office, which said that Iranian scientists ended all work on designing a nuclear warhead in late 2003.

After reviewing new documents that have leaked out of Iran and debriefing defectors lured to the West, Mr. Obama’s advisers say they believe the work on weapons design is continuing on a smaller scale — the same assessment reached by Britain, France, Germany and Israel…

The administration’s current view of Iran’s nuclear program was provided by six senior administration officials advising Mr. Obama on his strategy, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the delicacy of the subject. The administration’s review of Iran’s program, which they said was based on intelligence reports, information from allies, and their own analysis, did not amount to a new formal intelligence assessment.

In interviews, those officials as well as European officials engaged in the Iran issue and private experts described Iran’s nuclear program as being in some disarray.

What they neglect to admit: The NIE was a sham from the day it came out. The CIA knew about the secret Qom enrichment facility, which has no logical peaceful purpose, even before the document was written, and a classified portion explicitly mentioned the possibility of up to 15 secret nuclear sites. And yet Iran was still given the benefit of the doubt, obviously as a way of tying Bush’s hands lest he take the cowboy route on their reactors. Only a few weeks ago were we finally informed that Iran’s been working on a bomb trigger since — ta da — 2007, the very year that the NIE appeared. I wonder how much Bush’s pals in the intel community knew about that. Perhaps congressional hearings might find out.

Your homework assignment: Take five minutes and read the entire Times piece, as there’s so much provocative info in there about the current state of Iran’s program — rickety (possibly sabotaged) centrifuges, a now-useless facility at Qom, and a new regime susceptibility to sanctions given the unrest in Tehran — that I just can’t blockquote it all. Israeli intel seems sufficiently impressed by it to give sanctions a shot, so there may be something to it. Or there may not: Iran’s newly announced reply to The One’s New Year’s deadline for making a deal is to, um, issue a deadline of its own. The million-dollar exit question: Given the way intel officials suppressed damning info to craft the NIE to their political liking, why on earth should anyone give credence to this convenient new intel assessment about Iran not being quite as close to the bomb as we thought?

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JellyToast on January 2, 2010 at 9:23 PM

WOW…just watched the video…agree with canophor…totally awesome…hoping it goes viral.

Maybe Glen Beck will play it?

lukespapa on January 2, 2010 at 10:14 PM

Hey, am I shameless enough to ask you to visit Conservative Talk Forum. Why yes, yes I am. Author your own discussion threads on damn near any issue you care to name. Click on my name to go there. Thanks.

trapeze on January 2, 2010 at 10:28 PM

The Socialists that now control the American government have never been interested in the truth of Iran’s nuclear ambitions – only in how the foreign relations problem of Iran could be exploited to bring the Socialists to power.

Now they have that power, and their irresponsible treatment of the Iranian problem is a threat to us all.

Damn the Socialists.

IronDioPriest on January 2, 2010 at 10:46 PM

Baxter Greene: Are their any Liberals that are actually
qualified for the job,with actual experience
in Security,or is it as long as you helped
during the campaign,say as a water boy,you
‘ll get a plumb job in any department with
no prior education or real world experience!

canopfor on January 2, 2010 at 9:35 PM

Besides our military leaders (except for Jones and McCrystal is on watch….reference the many MB4 posts that are very informative on the General)…I honestly cannot find any that are not liberal ideologues(Brzezinski worked under Republicans and democrats) who have developed their rationales in coffee shops and classrooms.

I believe our Ambassador to Japan (a very important economic ally) knows little to nothing about a country he had not even been to when appointed.

But the absolute worst are these two characters here:

Zbigniew Brzezinski, Robert Malley,

Robert Malley:

It is true that Malley was on Bill Clinton’s staff at Camp David when Ehud Barak had all the juice squeezed out of him to satisfy Yassir Arafat. But he was the only American in attendance to blame the failure of the negotiations on Israel, not least in The New York Review of Books, whose prior experts on the conflict were Noam Chomsky and I.F. Stone, afterwards to be replaced by George Soros, “oich mir a maven” or also an expert, and Henry Siegman. Don’t blame yourself if you don’t recognize Siegman’s name. (Anyway, he hasn’t appeared in the NYRB in some time. Maybe he even embarrasses Bob Silvers by now, as Chomsky came to embarrass him.) Malley also showed his colors with his attempt to coin a new nomenclature for the Israeli villages and towns in the West Bank, from “settlements” to “colonies.”

Of course pretty much and Republican know that Arafat was given pretty much everything he asked for only to reject it.
Anybody who does not see this is willfully blind and so anti-Israel that they have no business in a policy making position.

Brzezinski is very well known and his policies are extremely dangerous

Zbigniew Brzezinski

“I encouraged the Chinese to support Pol Pot…. Pol Pot was an abomination. We could never support him, but China could.” [Blum, 1995; Z Magazine, 1997]

Wow!!!…what do you say to such lunacy.

Kind of like supporting Chairman Mao….oh wait….Obama administrators do that to.

But Brzezinski gets even better…

He was one of the orchestrator’s of arming the Islamist in Afghanistan during the Carter administration.

Although helping the locals fight against the communist invasion was a positive…it was not handled well afterwards as history has shown.

Brzezinski does not see it that way…:

Q: When the Soviets justified their intervention by asserting that they intended to fight
against a secret involvement of the United States in Afghanistan, people didn’t believe
them. However, there was a basis of truth. You don’t regret anything today?

Brzezinski: Regret what? That secret operation was an excellent idea. It had the effect of
drawing the Russians into the Afghan trap and you want me to regret it? The day that the
Soviets officially crossed the border, I wrote to President Carter: We now have the
opportunity of giving to the USSR its Vietnam war. Indeed, for almost 10 years, Moscow
had to carry on a war unsupportable by the government, a conflict that brought about the
demoralization and finally the breakup of the Soviet empire.

Q: And neither do you regret having supported the Islamic fundamentalists, having given
arms and advice to future terrorists?

What is most important to the history of the world? The Taliban or the
collapse of the Soviet empire? Some stirred-up Moslems or the liberation of Central
Europe and the end of the cold war?

Q: Some stirred-up Moslems? But it has been said and repeated: Islamic fundamentalism
represents a world menace today.


Nonsense!!!….are you freaking kidding me with this ignorant bullsh!t.

These people must have some serious dirt on a lot of important people to maintain their positions of power after such ignorance and failure.

Obama has already circumvented congress with his “czar” appointments because they are to radical to pass confirmation.

He has yet to fill many important positions in the “greatest administration evaaaaaaaaaa!!!”:

Obama’s Team Is Lacking Most of Its Top Players


All parties vowed to fix the process, and Mr. Obama has a more intact national security team than his predecessor at this point. But even in this area, vital offices remain open. No Obama appointee is running the Transportation Security Administration, the Customs and Border Protection agency, the Drug Enforcement Administration or the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. Mr. Obama still does not have an intelligence chief at the Department of Homeland Security, nor a top civilian in charge of military readiness at the Pentagon.

…..and the ones he does have ….prove their unbelievable ignorance with revelations such as these:

Obama WH bought COIN without understanding the cost: WaPo

posted at 9:30 am on October 8, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

“It was easy to say, ‘Hey, I support COIN,’ because nobody had done the assessment of what it would really take, and nobody had thought through whether we want to do what it takes,” said one senior civilian administration official who participated in the review, using the shorthand for counterinsurgency.

The failure to reach a shared understanding of the resources required to execute the strategy has complicated the White House’s response to the grim assessment of the war by the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, forcing the president to decide, in effect, what his administration really meant when it endorsed a counterinsurgency plan.

….once again…are you freaking kidding me with this ignorance.

How long did we endure hearing liberals go on…and…on…and…on…and….on…and…on about the “adults” being in charge….
….about having a “smarter plan”……

…………..about how “dumb Bush was”….

…and what do we get…almost a full year into Obama’s Presidency and they have no idea what the he!! COIN even is.

They have no assessment or strategy and have done no serious evaluation on the very war we are in and Obama is…
..God help us all….Commander and Chief.

This ignorance was only compounded by even more ignorance.

To set the scene, this comes from the October 8 war room meeting on Afghanistan, with McChrystal teleconferenced in from Kabul to explain what he’d been doing since receiving his orders in March. Smart power:

In June, McChrystal noted, he had arrived in Afghanistan and set about fulfilling his assignment. His lean face, hovering on the screen at the end of the table, was replaced by a mission statement on a PowerPoint slide: “Defeat the Taliban. Secure the Population.

“Is that really what you think your mission is?” one of the participants asked.

But that was precisely his mission, McChrystal responded, enshrined in the Strategic Implementation Plan — the execution orders for the March strategy, written by the NSC staff.

“I wouldn’t say there was quite a ‘whoa’ moment,” a senior defense official said of the reaction around the table. “It was just sort of a recognition that, ‘Duh, that’s what in effect the commander understands he’s been told to do.’ Everybody said, ‘He’s right.’”

….and our Commander and Chief weighs in…..

Already briefed on the previous day’s discussion, the president “looked at it and said, ‘To be fair, this is what we told the commander to do.
Now, the question is, have we directed him to do more than what is realistic? Should there be a sharpening . . . a refinement?’ ” one participant recalled.

For the love of God it is more than obvious that there is probably not one single person that actually is competent or experienced enough to handle our foreign policy in the Obama administration.

We don’t have to worry about partisanship or if we are being objective in making these claims, the events going on around us bear this out.

The jihadist see blood in the water and nothing but weakness and ineptitude in the White House.

Baxter Greene on January 2, 2010 at 10:49 PM

JellyToast on January 2, 2010 at 9:23 PM

Thanks JellyToast.

“Right now the congress is the domestic enemy”

The whole fed needs to be downsized.

Geochelone on January 2, 2010 at 10:51 PM

IronDioPriest on January 2, 2010 at 10:46 PM

Great tag.

I am assuming it stands for:

Iron Maiden

Ronnie James Dio

Judas Priest

Baxter Greene on January 2, 2010 at 11:01 PM

massrighty on January 2, 2010 at 9:40 PM

So it will all be moo….lol

d1carter on January 2, 2010 at 11:07 PM

Nothing surprises me anymore.
Oh, and here is a link to a short but very good video I just watched on freedom of speech!
Makes you realize “blogging anonymously” has been around since the beginning of our nation! Worth the watch!

JellyToast on January 2, 2010 at 9:23 PM

Seems to be stuck on 331 views. Looks like Youtube is at it again suppressing non-leftist views.

CPL 310 on January 2, 2010 at 11:14 PM

The 2007 NIE just may have been the straw that broke the camels back, for the Brits. With the report that came out, about the Brits knowing about the Fruit of the Boom guy, and not sharing it with us, I’m sure it has more to do with trust than anything else. They know our intelligence community has become completely politicized and can’t be trusted to keep secrets any more. I’m sure the Brits saw what was leaked to the NY Times and just didn’t feel they could chance completely blowing the intelligence they had.

November can’t come too soon.

bflat879 on January 2, 2010 at 11:55 PM

I question the timing…….now that the 2007 NIE had it’s desired affect.

Exit Question: Can we fire those who wrote it?

GarandFan on January 3, 2010 at 12:25 AM

The 2007 NIE was treason. Bush knew the NIE was lying, he should have called their bluff. I hope he did something behind the scenes. Conservatives knew they were lying as well. The only people who didn’t know they were lying were liberals who hate America.

scotash on January 3, 2010 at 5:56 AM

I stopped reading articles on Iran’s nuclear ambitions a long time ago (back when Europe was going to talk Iran into stopping development of nuclear weapons). It’s all a waste of time.

Here’s what will happen:

1. Iran has and will continue without any slow down to, engage in full fledged nuclear weapon development.

2. Neither the US nor Europe will do anything concrete to stop the development.

3. The US and Europe will engage in lots of ineffective discussions and activities that will not slow Iran’s development of nuclear weapons.

4. Iran will announce it has a nuclear weapon.

5. Iran will step up its support for groups destabilizing US supported governments in the Middle East.

6. The US and its Middle East allies will be forced to endure increasing losses over a decade due to the escalation of the Iranian support for terrorists in the Middle East. Due to Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons the US will not be able to effect regime change in Iran.

7. US politicians and the US press will bemoan the fact that the US cannot stop the Iranian supported carnage and the loss of US influence.

Over50 on January 3, 2010 at 6:52 AM

Nothing surprises me anymore.
Oh, and here is a link to a short but very good video I just watched on freedom of speech!
Makes you realize “blogging anonymously” has been around since the beginning of our nation! Worth the watch!

JellyToast on January 2, 2010 at 9:23 PM

Thank you JellyToast…..this must go viral!
Still on 331 views!

yoda on January 3, 2010 at 7:56 AM

NIE reports, Nobel prizes, academy awards, downing street memo, etc etc

the BS that the commies manufacture to support their agenda are endless and perilously untrue

it makes for great talking points though

Sonosam on January 3, 2010 at 9:44 AM

Reality meets Obama “Reality” = Imploding Obama.

PLUS: Where is Hillary?
a. Sick.
b. Planning to resign.
c. On a secret mission to ________ (fill in the blank).
d. Tired from all that “restarting” and enjoying her Christmas and New Year`s Vacation.

PLUS: Why has Joe Biden been so quiet since Obama did not listen to his wonderful plans for Afghanistan?
a. Realized he is worthless as the Obama VP.
b. Getting new hair implants.
c. On a secret mission with Hillary to ________ (fill in the blank).
d. Figures he has only 3 more years as VP and going to take as much vacation time as possible.

albill on January 3, 2010 at 10:29 AM

Hmmmm. All it took to discredit the NIE report was for Iran to say “Screw you, we’re building nuclear bombs anyway!”. I guess all it takes for a decrepit nuclear operation to be proven false is for Iran to drop some bombs.

Sorry. I don’t believe these people. The most maddening part of this whole thing is that when their STUPID policies fail and Iran actually becomes a key player, they’ll find SOME WAY to make sure everyone gets blamed except them.

xax on January 3, 2010 at 12:25 PM

Sen. Kerry was denied an entry visa into Iran. Kerry is beside himself in tears knowing that he is being prevented from selling out the USA once again.

eaglewingz08 on January 3, 2010 at 5:30 PM

Hussein and his Posse of Clowns do not believe anything prior to 2009 b/c the Dumb Arses have NO Clue WTF is going on so they wish to blame Bush and Prior Admins for their inadequatcies!

BigMike252 on January 3, 2010 at 9:11 PM