Quinnipiac: Obama approval in PA on health care -19

posted at 11:36 am on December 18, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

Quinnipiac headlines results on its latest survey for Pat Toomey and Arlen Specter, but they bury a more interesting nugget from their Pennsylvania survey.  Barack Obama, who won Pennsylvania handily in 2008, now has a -19 on health care, and a -5 on the economy, while only having a wan 49-45 positive overall approval rating:

President Obama’s 49 – 45 percent approval compares to a 49 – 42 percent score in an October 1 Quinnipiac University poll. In this latest survey, the President gets a positive rating from 82 percent of Democrats, 45 percent of independents and 17 percent of Republicans.

And the overall job approval rating is actually better than when voters are asked about Obama’s performance on health care and the economy. They disapprove 50 – 45 percent of Obama’s handling of the economy and disapprove 56 – 37 percent of his handling of health care. On Afghanistan, they approve 51 – 41 percent.

“The President’s job approval rating in Pennsylvania should be troubling to the White House. Pennsylvania has been trending Democratic in recent years and Obama had a double- digit 55 – 44 percent win in the 2008 election,” said Brown. “But what’s ailing him in Pennsylvania – unhappiness over health care and the economy – is no different than what is producing similar, and in some places worse numbers for the President elsewhere.”

That may have something to do with the Senate race numbers the Q-poll finds in its survey.  Toomey’s position is basically the same as two months ago, in a dead heat with Arlen Specter.  Specter has improved against Joe Sestak, but it’s unclear why:

Sen. Specter holds a commanding 53 – 30 percent lead in the Democratic Senate primary over Congressman Joe Sestak, a slight increase from the 44 – 25 percent margin when the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University last surveyed Pennsylvania voters October 1. …

“With less than 11 months to go, Sen. Arlen Specter and Pat Toomey are neck-and-neck. Specter has the state’s Democratic registration advantage on his side, while Toomey can take heart in the numbers that show problems for Specter in measures in addition to the horse race,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“For example, voters say 50 – 38 percent he does not deserve reelection.”

With those kind of numbers, Specter hardly needs Obama like an albatross hanging around his neck.  The economy will be the biggest issue going into the midterm elections, and with Obama attempting to impose tougher restrictions on coal, Pennsylvanians can look forward to more misery than the country as a whole.  Specter’s flip to Obama’s banner is not going to help him under those circumstances, and Specter lacks Obama’s likeability that tends to float his overall approval higher than his work on the specific issues.

The best potential for Toomey is also his biggest danger: his relative lack of recognition in the state.  Specter has an opportunity to define Toomey negatively before Toomey can define himself positively. However, with Specter locked in a tough primary race against Sestak, that should give Toomey ample opportunity to properly introduce himself to Pennsylvania voters — and to give them all the more reason to retire Snarlin’ Arlen.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

I hope Obama campaigns for Specter. That way Toomey will win.

portlandon on December 18, 2009 at 11:38 AM

SARAH PALIN’S VISOR!

Like a little birdfeeder, that just might attract ‘em.

Bishop on December 18, 2009 at 11:38 AM

“With less than 11 months to go, Sen. Arlen Specter and Pat Toomey are neck-and-neck. Specter has the state’s Democratic registration advantage on his side, while Toomey can take heart in the numbers that show problems for Specter in measures in addition to the horse race,”

That’s not great news, considering that several large precincts in Philadelphia have consistently voted in numbers greater than 100% of the population.

Vashta.Nerada on December 18, 2009 at 11:39 AM

Can’t wait to pull the lever for Toomey here in PA. Every PA indy and GOPer I know here can’t wait either.

Good Lt on December 18, 2009 at 11:42 AM

and 17 percent of Republicans

These RINO’s need to wake up and smell the socialism.

farright on December 18, 2009 at 11:42 AM

Right now Sestak and Specter are doing a “Leftier than thou” battle for the Dem primary. Each is more in favor of a “vigorous public option” in health care than the other.

Once that is over, I look forward to seeing how Specter fips and paints himself as enough of a moderate to win the crucial Philly suburbs, the ones where the “Obama ’08″ stickers are rapidly disappearing from the cars in commuter station parking lots.

Wethal on December 18, 2009 at 11:43 AM

Rasmussen is back at 44% for BO.

txag92 on December 18, 2009 at 11:43 AM

So S.P.E.C.T.R.E. will vote for an Obamacare bill with a rating of -19 and he expects to win re-election? Good luck with that.

Doughboy on December 18, 2009 at 11:47 AM

I’m surprised (or am I?) that Specter hasn’t come out against Obamacare with these types of poll numbers.

SouthernGent on December 18, 2009 at 11:47 AM

Pat toomey is already well known here in pa, I think arlen sphincter is done for…

SHARPTOOTH on December 18, 2009 at 11:47 AM

OT

Danny Tarkanian’s wife had a baby yesterday. Check out the bib in the pic here.

http://www.tark2010.org/guestbook

Mark1971 on December 18, 2009 at 11:47 AM

Bonusgate isn’t helping Democrats in PA. Former Democrat house speaker and Democrat revenue secretary are the latest to get indicted.

People who’ve written off PA as a “blue state” are going to be in for a shock over the next couple election cycles.

forest on December 18, 2009 at 11:48 AM

When Barry gets back from Copenhagen he’s going to have something to say about those bitter clingers. lol

Cody1991 on December 18, 2009 at 11:49 AM

forest on December 18, 2009 at 11:48 AM

And the attorney general is running for governor in 2010, too. Imagine the fun, not just if Toomey wins, but if PA has a GOP governor, senate and house. Tort reform? Voter ID (just in time for 2012)?

Wethal on December 18, 2009 at 11:50 AM

Anybody know how Toomey’s doing on fundraising? I’ve sent him the max, with hopeful fingers crossed and thinking he could win if he gets enough money against the whore of our time, Spector.

TXUS on December 18, 2009 at 11:51 AM

The Dems don’t really have as much in PA as in the past.

Fast Eddy Rendell is a lame duck governor. Senator Junior Casey has the IQ of a potted plant and is selling out his late father’s pro-life legacy in Obamacare. Specter is sad, creepy old man with a quavery voice. There’s not much to drive the ticket.

There’s still the Dem machine, but the enthusiasm factor will likely be down.

Wethal on December 18, 2009 at 11:53 AM

Pennsylvania is pathetic. The fact that Spectre leads the local dog catcher tells you everything you need to know about how stupid the average voter in that state is.

Obama’s negative numbers mean nothing. Health care is passing, get used to it. Everything with the Nelson’s et al is kabuki theatre. The Dems know that any bill passed is a great bill. They will be able to amend the bill as they see fit going forward and no one will be able to stop it even if the repubs get control of the Senate, House and Presidency.

The only thing that might stop this whole mess is a complete economic collapse of the US and world economy which may have been forestalled by printing trillions of dollars.

patrick neid on December 18, 2009 at 11:54 AM

-19=B+

reality

ted c on December 18, 2009 at 11:54 AM

If Specter gets the dem nom and votes for this pile of crap health care bill, I don’t see how he could win. Anything is possible I guess.

Brat4life on December 18, 2009 at 11:54 AM

“Let them eat coal”-M’chelle Antoinette

Little Boomer on December 18, 2009 at 11:58 AM

OT

Danny Tarkanian’s wife had a baby yesterday. Check out the bib in the pic here.

http://www.tark2010.org/guestbook

Mark1971 on December 18, 2009 at 11:47 AM

I thought this was going to be a joke picture of his baby looking like Hugh Hewitt… Cool bib.

myrenovations on December 18, 2009 at 11:59 AM

SARAH PALIN’S VISOR!
Like a little birdfeeder, that just might attract ‘em.
Bishop on December 18, 2009 at 11:38 AM

The Fisters are embarrassing themselves, grasping at straws visors.

Chip on December 18, 2009 at 12:00 PM

Toomey spoke at the Tea Party rally on Independence Mall this spring, so their support should help.

Wethal on December 18, 2009 at 12:03 PM

I pray that my fellow PA Voter do the right thing and vote Specter out. I still cant beleive he is a Senator. I have not voted him in any primary and coting for him in the general’s just made me ill. Smug a-hole that he is.

Go Birds.

igglesphan on December 18, 2009 at 12:05 PM

PA has a large elderly population, which could be one reason the health-care scores so low in the poll. Seniors don’t like this bill in most polls. I doubt Specter will win re-election, he angered the Republicans when he switched parties and didn’t impress the Democrats with his move.

If you look at the maps of where Obama won, you will see that he took Philadelphia, State College (Centre County), Harrisburg, and a few of the southern counties between Harrisburg and Philly. The rest of the state voted against him. It will be a matter of voter turn-out, but I think the past election this fall could be an indicator. All (or at least majority) of the state judges that were voted in were Republicans. Obama won’t be on the ticket in 2010, so there won’t be the enthusiasm in the Philly area to go out and vote.

CBP on December 18, 2009 at 12:06 PM

That specter/toomey poll is unbelievable.How can specter have any numbers at all??What the heck is up with PA. to even let the numbers be that close?Well,we’ve got a few months to change that.Don’t let up toomey,don’t let up until ALL the votes have been counted in November.

ohiobabe on December 18, 2009 at 12:07 PM

NRO Tweet tracker: Reid to unveil latest version of Obamacare tomorrow.

Wethal on December 18, 2009 at 12:08 PM

Isn’t it time for Specter to change parties again?

Knucklehead on December 18, 2009 at 12:09 PM

Specter has improved against Joe Sestak, but it’s unclear why

For the same reason HRC is doing so well, they have been staying out of sight.

J_Crater on December 18, 2009 at 12:10 PM

You know what the irony is here? Arlen Specter, long time Republican… now a Democrat… and Sestak is actually less of a jackass than Specter.

Red Cloud on December 18, 2009 at 12:16 PM

Hey….Pennsylvania elected Murtha….again. If they don’t get it, they never will. I don’t have a lot of sympathy for them. However, for those who do see, and voted against this ilk….I pray for you all. It’s a shame to see you stuck with the likes of Murtha, and Specter.

capejasmine on December 18, 2009 at 12:38 PM

I’m surprised (or am I?) that Specter hasn’t come out against Obamacare with these types of poll numbers.SouthernGent on December 18, 2009 at 11:47 AM But you don\’t know what ExSpecterate was given under the table. Probably enough for he and his children, grand-children and great grand-children to live in comfort. UNTIL THEY DIE AND THERE AIN\’T NO FANS DOWN THERE.

MaiDee on December 18, 2009 at 12:38 PM

Quinnipiac is just another dishonest Dem polling group.

Nothing to see here.

Move along.

Sporty1946 on December 18, 2009 at 12:55 PM

GOING DOWN!

GarandFan on December 18, 2009 at 1:01 PM

“The President’s job approval rating in Pennsylvania should be troubling to the White House. Pennsylvania has been trending Democratic in recent years and Obama had a double- digit 55 – 44 percent win in the 2008 election,

Maybe the gun-toting Bible believers’ ranks are growing?

Oopsdaisy on December 18, 2009 at 1:27 PM

And the attorney general is running for governor in 2010, too. Imagine the fun, not just if Toomey wins, but if PA has a GOP governor, senate and house. Tort reform? Voter ID (just in time for 2012)?

Wethal on December 18, 2009 at 11:50 AM

Not to mention no more shoveling of federal or state money to the unions and ACORN in Philadelphia!

rockmom on December 18, 2009 at 2:24 PM

Is there anyway Congress can pass Obamacare for just the liberal states and tax just them? Wouldn’t it be fun to watch the aftermath? Of course all other states would have to insist that the liberals can’t get health care in their state.

orlandocajun on December 18, 2009 at 2:42 PM

My 3 Christmas wishes:

- 2010 House becomes Republican
- Harry Reid loses
- Specter loses

Bonus wish – Senate libs suffer bigger losses than they think.

Schadenfreude on December 18, 2009 at 3:23 PM

Look at the numbers now, and barring some act of “god” scenario, add at 8 more points in Specter’s favor. The man can close a campaign. This isn’t the first time people have been gunning for him. I would have liked to see him thrown out a while ago, but I have come to the realization that the only thing that will do that is death. You could show me a poll that has Toomey up ten and I wouldn’t care, because I have seen it a million times with Specter. As far as winning elections is concerned, he knows what he is doing.

LevStrauss on December 18, 2009 at 3:45 PM

My 3 Christmas wishes:
- 2010 House becomes Republican
- Harry Reid loses
- Specter loses
- Bonus wish – Senate libs suffer bigger losses than they think. Nasty Pelosi is tossed from the Speakership – and then loses her seat in the House.
Schadenfreude on December 18, 2009 at 3:23 PM

Hope you agree that – Bonus wishes need to be used on the really dastardly!

Oopsdaisy on December 18, 2009 at 4:00 PM

Now THIS is Hope and Change I can believe in!

lovingmyUSA on December 18, 2009 at 6:21 PM

That’s not great news, considering that several large precincts in Philadelphia have consistently voted in numbers greater than 100% of the population.
Vashta.Nerada on December 18, 2009 at 11:39 AM

Hey – those black panthers with clubs standing outside the voting sites are pretty convincing when they inform you that you WILL vote early and often

Oopsdaisy on December 18, 2009 at 7:15 PM