Cook report: Number of “likely” Democratic House seats down to … 218
posted at 5:48 pm on December 14, 2009 by Allahpundit
A bare majority. Actually, there are only 39 seats listed in the “lean Democratic” and “Democratic toss-up” columns, but as Taegan Goddard points out, if you toss in Bart Gordon’s retirement today in a very winnable GOP district you’re down to the magic number. But never mind that. Follow the first link to Cook and skim the column of “likely Democratic” seats, which are considered safe-ish, to see how many come from districts with a Republican-leaning PVI. If you see multiple retirements in that column — and the NRCC thinks you very well might — then suddenly a bunch of seats are in play on top of the 40 that are already shaky. Marc Ambinder looks ahead:
But the biggest psychological driver of congressional retirements is the perception that the next election won’t be worth the personal/political/ego rewards of the 2010-2011 congressional cycle. It’s not so much that Democrats expect to be in the minority, although it is possible. It’s that Democrats of a certain type — John Tanner, Bart Gordon, Brian Baird — expect to be in a narrower, more liberal majority that forces them to take harder votes — a majority where the new Republicans elected from open district seats are suddenly invested with major bargaining powers.
The downside of this? A Blue Dog who’s given up on being reelected is a Blue Dog with nothing to lose in voting for a liberal ObamaCare bill. Which, ironically, makes last month’s slight downtick in unemployment doubly good news, as it might convince enough centrist Dems that the economic recovery will save them next year that they’ll stick to their guns on O-Care.
Speaking of likely Democratic victories, here’s Paul Ryan on Captain B+ and his odds on being reelected. Sad to say, I think he’s wrong about this one, only because the GOP field right now is, shall we say, “a solid B-.”
Update: More Hope and Change for conservatives, this time courtesy of lefty pollster PPP:
Do you think Democrats in Washington have too much power right now?
50% Yes, 40% No
The GOP’s within two on their generic ballot.
Blowback
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Say good night, Nancy!
John Boehner: That’s MY gavel now!
Steve Z on December 14, 2009 at 5:51 PM
Whoa.
upinak on December 14, 2009 at 5:51 PM
IL-11 Debbie Halverson is just a two seat warmer. That seat was R for many years and will be again on Jan 3, 2011.
WashJeff on December 14, 2009 at 5:53 PM
Better question with hopeful answer:
Do you think
Democrats inWashington hashavetoo much power right now?65% Yes, 35% No
WashJeff on December 14, 2009 at 5:55 PM
A B- to whom? To conservatives, they are about a C…but after 4 years of glorious HopenChange, especially given the independent polling trends…a dead squirrel will look like an A- compared to Captain B+.
AUINSC on December 14, 2009 at 5:56 PM
That’s what I’m afraid of.
It will pass this weekend and Barry will serenade us about it on Christmas Eve.
OT…..Orin Hatch is on Beck and saying Joe Lieberman won’t cave.
Knucklehead on December 14, 2009 at 5:57 PM
Nancy, could you turn off the lights on the way out of the Chamber?
portlandon on December 14, 2009 at 5:57 PM
I predicted as much 6 months ago and I still believe they underestimate their losses…If they continue to ignore the country and behave like petty despots, they might lose 50 seats next year, and 3-5 in the senate.
JIMV on December 14, 2009 at 5:58 PM
God, I hope not.
upinak on December 14, 2009 at 5:58 PM
Judging by what I am hearing people say on the street here in MD we have a few Dems who will be retiring … they just dno’t know it yet.
Dukehoopsfan on December 14, 2009 at 5:58 PM
…wink, wink…
Knott Buyinit on December 14, 2009 at 5:59 PM
It’s going to get worse when Democrats keep retiring. We’re already up to 4 or 5 who have said they won’t seek re-election.
Enoxo on December 14, 2009 at 5:59 PM
I think it,s going to be much worse than this.I have never seen this much anger out there .It,s far far worse than 93/94.I believe the dems could loose as many as 60 seats.
thmcbb on December 14, 2009 at 5:59 PM
It’s a shame that the Senate won’t swing to the GOP as well.
(hatching chickens being what they are)
Abby Adams on December 14, 2009 at 5:59 PM
Why do I think Lieberman will capitulate?
cubachi on December 14, 2009 at 5:59 PM
I remember a time when he has before, but God help me I can’t remember what it was on!
upinak on December 14, 2009 at 6:00 PM
Now the GOP needs to field good candidates.
rbj on December 14, 2009 at 6:01 PM
…Because if the GOP is in charge we will have no deficit, solve world hunger, cure cancer, the DOW will go to 20000 and we all become multi-billionaires…
While you people cheer on your “Team” like a game between the Steelers and Dolphins you fail to realize that the political parties are exactly the same. They use and manipulate you for votes in the same way Fox News uses you for ratings. As an example do you really think a Pro-Life President will stop abortion? Before you answer remember we just left 8 years of Bush. That seemed to work wonders, eh?
Real political change to the system can not be accomplished until you cheerleaders understand that you are being used.
Decider on December 14, 2009 at 6:01 PM
The Blue Dog may also vote against socialism knowing that they don’t face reelection. Wishful thinking.
farright on December 14, 2009 at 6:01 PM
They may actually lose more than that in the Senate.
Right now, they’ve got vulnerable seats in Illinois, Delaware, Colorado, New York, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Connecticut, California, and a few other states.
Four of those are currently filled by placeholder candidates because Obama, Hillary, Biden, and so forth resigned to take part in the current administration.
If the Republicans hold the open seats they’re defending like the ones in Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Kentucky, the Dems are looking at losing as many as 7-10 seats, several of which belong to long-term politicians like Boxer, Dodd, and Specter.
teke184 on December 14, 2009 at 6:02 PM
Saw Paul Ryan this morning on CNBC. He was very good. Refreshing to see.
Weight of Glory on December 14, 2009 at 6:02 PM
But, but, but Gallup says Democrats are narrowing the gap for 2010 with independents….
deidre on December 14, 2009 at 6:03 PM
“IF” the GOP gets a clue, they will retake the House with by more than a few seats…
But the won’t. They don’t really understand the anger of the electorate, and so will continue to be Squishys…
A messege of “Change BACK!”… a messege of bringing back the Constitution? Landslide.
But that would also limit their own power… thus they won’t do it.
Romeo13 on December 14, 2009 at 6:03 PM
I can guarantee you 3 Republican pickups just from anecdotal stories:
NC-11
NC-2
SC-5 (John Spratt you are toast!)
Also, my district, NC-13, may be D +5, but the conservative base is motivated. We have a great candidate, Bill Randall, running against Brad “Death Threat” Miller. Miller will lose if his base isn’t motivated, and why should they be?
SouthernGent on December 14, 2009 at 6:05 PM
Where in MD are you?I mean…where you AT?Laura in Maryland on December 14, 2009 at 6:07 PM
Please, please say one of them is Barbara Mukulski! or Steny Hoyer. Nothing would make me happier than to see those two go peacefully into the night(never to be seen again)
BetseyRoss on December 14, 2009 at 6:09 PM
Bankrupting our treasury comes at a high price.
JammieWearingFool on December 14, 2009 at 6:09 PM
Wow! Nothing about sacrifice, honor, responsibility?
The three branches of government have become the ruling class. We now serve their egos and need for personal, political reward.
Is this a great country or what?
donh525 on December 14, 2009 at 6:09 PM
Hopefully the blue dogs read the recent piece on the lessons of 1994 in the Weekly Standard, and figure out that they’re safer than the typical dem, IF they vote against Health Care Reform…
phreshone on December 14, 2009 at 6:10 PM
not in this cycle. But I have seen quite a few new faces come up and I like them… a lot!
upinak on December 14, 2009 at 6:14 PM
Obamacare will pass, but the Dems will lose everything by 2012.
Hopefully we’ll still have a functioning country by then.
WisCon on December 14, 2009 at 6:14 PM
After subtracting the Harvard grade inflation, that B- looks pretty good next to Obama’s real grade of C.
RedRedRice on December 14, 2009 at 6:15 PM
OT………….Tom Harkin says the public option and medicare buy-in has just died.
More to follow.
Knucklehead on December 14, 2009 at 6:16 PM
Good point and hopefully at least one of their staffers will see it and pass it on. They should all be replaced but maybe this will convince a few of them to slow down the damage. Then in 2010, throw them out anyways!
GnuBreed on December 14, 2009 at 6:18 PM
Nov 2010 is a long way away. unless the GOP starts fighting for its core beliefs instead of sitting on the sidelines any uptick in the economy, the wars etc will ensure the dems a majority.
The GOP needs to start fighting the fight and calling these liberty stealing dems on account and they will not do that by allowing 3 GOP senators to vote to end the filibuster on the porkulus bill like they did sat
unseen on December 14, 2009 at 6:19 PM
Well, he had to on some of the issues when he was running with Gore in 2000, but I can’t recall a cave-in or flip-flop on a legislative issue for which he made his position clear, as he has here.
Though certainly a liberal on most issues, he is one of the few honest ones up there, R or D, who stands by his word, whether given privately or publicly.
If Obama and Reid want anything passed called “healthcare”, they’re going to have to cave in to Lieberman or find another vote from someone with less integrity, and there’s a target-rich environment for that.
TXUS on December 14, 2009 at 6:19 PM
What would upset the applecart big time is a blue dog Democrat pulling a Jim Jeffords – deciding “I can’t keep spending this money and voting for legislation my constituents don’t want” – and jump the fence. Now THAT would frost old Harry’s behind!!
GoldenEagle4444 on December 14, 2009 at 6:21 PM
Being used because I’m a cheerleader! Well, I sense something sexual being suggested here.
Do not refer to us as cheerleaders, because that misrepresents all of us who want to get back to a constitutional form of government. We advance the constitution as our anchor and cheerlead for nothing.
We stand for something we believe in, that’s NOT cheerleading!
donh525 on December 14, 2009 at 6:22 PM
Say good night, Nancy!
John Boehner: That’s MY gavel now!
Steve Z on December 14, 2009 at 5:51 PM
_________________________________________________
I just felt a thrill go up my leg.
Dopenstrange on December 14, 2009 at 6:23 PM
Why not take the positive side, and say that, with nothing to lose, the Blue Dogs who have announced retirement will vote their conscience and vote against health care reform? The Dem leadership has nothing to hold over their heads.
Buford Gooch on December 14, 2009 at 6:23 PM
IMPORTANT!!
You all are missing an extremely important Fact. One Blue Dog Democrat from either Alabama or MS, said over the summer that he would NOT! vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House no matter what.
That reduces the “magic number,” for us to take the House by 1.
Additionally, Idaho’s 1st CD will go Republican no matter what. A Dem just announced he’s running against 1st termer ‘D’ Walt Minnick AS A REPUBLICAN!!! And now speculation is rampant that Minnick, the most conservative Democrat in the House may switch to Republican in the coming weeks to head him off.
Eric @ Libertarian Republican
ericdondero on December 14, 2009 at 6:23 PM
PelosiCare only got 218 at maximum armtwisting. When they come back from the break after listening to constituents and wanting to retire, Pelosi can threaten them with nothing.
pedestrian on December 14, 2009 at 6:24 PM
and while you’re at it, take those swirley light bulbs with you!
Onager on December 14, 2009 at 6:25 PM
Who is running against her?
Queen0fCups on December 14, 2009 at 6:26 PM
I hope this is true, I really do; however, sometimes, I feel like the GOP will screw up somehow.
deidre on December 14, 2009 at 6:27 PM
Wow, can a President really do that??? And here I thought congress did all that law passin’ and such…
Whoda Thunk??
BigWyo on December 14, 2009 at 6:28 PM
Looks like Lieberman is likely to support the healthcare takeover bill. Fox reported a short time ago the public option and the medicare age lowering to 55 is being pulled. Lieberman was asked if he would support it now and he is reported to have said he would.
nwsseeker on December 14, 2009 at 6:30 PM
Ramming this calumny down the throat of the people, who in the majority don’t want it, will be their death nail.
Nothing will save them because the populace is more aware than ever about the deficits/money.
Schadenfreude on December 14, 2009 at 6:32 PM
I agree. Problem is, we’ve got more than our share of unethical, self serving lowlifes, in the republican party.
The good who are left, lack enough power to pull the train down the right track. The GOP needs some housecleaning too!
donh525 on December 14, 2009 at 6:32 PM
Wow, can a President really do that??? And here I thought congress did all that law passin’ and such…
Whoda Thunk??
BigWyo on December 14, 2009 at 6:28 PM
___________________________________________________
Slam! +10
Dopenstrange on December 14, 2009 at 6:32 PM
To throw out Pelosi and Reid w/b the ultimate punishment for misreading the public, or for reading it right and defying it.
Schadenfreude on December 14, 2009 at 6:34 PM
I think she was just re-elected in November of 08 and won against Marty Ozinga.
Knucklehead on December 14, 2009 at 6:34 PM
Lieberman may not cave, but I’m sure there are 2-3 Republicans who will.
xblade on December 14, 2009 at 6:34 PM
They will if they try to follow the current leadership.
Sporty1946 on December 14, 2009 at 6:34 PM
Not.Good enough.
Speakup on December 14, 2009 at 6:35 PM
Any Blue Dogs that vote for the bill, would be committing political suicide. I doubt they could run again for anything local or state after betraying their voters.
Queen0fCups on December 14, 2009 at 6:38 PM
Yes, but who is running against her this time? Or is that known yet?
Queen0fCups on December 14, 2009 at 6:39 PM
Because he thinks its an overall good plan?
That means one thing imo, and that is, he doesn’t see the danger to the Republic by the beginnings of shredding the Constitution.
As much as I hate to believe it, They’ll bullsh!t him with something and he’ll roll.
Itchee Dryback on December 14, 2009 at 6:39 PM
Great comments. I’ve learned a lot since my liberal > conservative metamorphisis. Thank you AP and all posters!
obleo on December 14, 2009 at 6:40 PM
Translation: They will lose 100+ seats. (if healthcare does not pass.) If it does, whoa boy, hold on.
elduende on December 14, 2009 at 6:41 PM
The Matrix red pill is awesome.
Mojave Mark on December 14, 2009 at 6:46 PM
What amazes me is that the blatant bullsh!ting of the public is not sending the people into the streets with pitchforks. They are doing it right out in the open..we see it..we know the CBO numbers are going to have been massaged with selective data..what they are selling is obviously illogical crap……….and nothing. Its like we think its all a game that will end and then we go to sleep and when we wake up we’re back to a new game and nothings changed.
It amazes me..I don’t understand it.
These people should be perp walking on every channel. How is the crap they are peddling any different than Madoffs scam?
Itchee Dryback on December 14, 2009 at 6:47 PM
I understand Dede Scozzy is available:)
Lanceman on December 14, 2009 at 6:53 PM
How’s that hope and change working out for ya, chippee? You bent over, now look what you got…
o/t I see ‘maverick’ is speaking out on the GOP side~must be time for the 2010 election!
HornetSting on December 14, 2009 at 6:56 PM
All I can do is sigh when I think of how
muchlittle thought went into what you wrote…lovingmyUSA on December 14, 2009 at 6:58 PM
What is the story on the Black American named Williams from Texas running for US Senate?? He was on Cavato earlier tonight (4pm EST) and sounded very good from a conservative point of view.
ny59giants on December 14, 2009 at 6:59 PM
I have been saying for months. The NRCC should consider retaking the House next year as their minimum acceptable goal. Anything less is a failure and should be admitted publicly and treated as such.
Chris of Rights on December 14, 2009 at 7:03 PM
I hope you’re right! I know Adam Kinzinger a bit from a while back, and have donated to his campaign. His father did great work in Bloomington-Normal, heading a charity there and Adam himself, as young as he is, has an impressive resume. He knows a thing or 2, through experience, about how ineffective nanny state politics are to the poorest and most in need.
When Halvorson caved on cap and trade it created a huge opening. Her vote on health care isn’t going to help in that district either – at least not south of I-80. What are you hearing in terms of polling, WashJeff?
stldave on December 14, 2009 at 7:03 PM
Adam Kinzinger
http://www.electadam.com/
stldave on December 14, 2009 at 7:09 PM
so did the guy in NY 23 till he won
BruceB on December 14, 2009 at 7:09 PM
Great comments. I’ve learned a lot since my liberal > conservative metamorphisis. Thank you AP and all posters!
obleo on December 14, 2009 at 6:40 PM
___________________________________________________
Welcome aboard!
Dopenstrange on December 14, 2009 at 7:09 PM
Two more to watch — MN-1 and WI-8. Tim Walz in MN-1 represents a primarily rural district with one large city: Rochester, home of the Mayo Clinic. The Mayo has been pretty vocal about Obamacare and Walz has been on board the whole time. It could and should bite him in the butt. As for WI-8, it’s been mostly a Republican district for many years (I grew up in the district) but Steve Kagen won an open seat in a bad year for Republicans (2006). He’s a very abrasive fellow with a very undistinguished record and if a good candidate emerges (and there are a few possibilities), Kagen will be very vulnerable.
Mr. D on December 14, 2009 at 7:10 PM
One seat that I would like to see the GOP win is that of Rush Holt in NJ. Mike Halfacre is a great GOP candidate opposing and Holt is far too left for NJ. In fact Holt voted to continue ACORN funding
Dennis D on December 14, 2009 at 7:12 PM
This is from Governor Palin today.
“For those that missed it, earlier today SarahPAC sent out this thank you message.
I am going to help campaign across our great nation and I’d like your help to do it. If you are able to contribute I will use the SarahPAC donations you place in my trust to support candidates who share our core values, and I’ll work on issues that can put America back on the right path. With your help, we can bring real change to America!
From my family to yours, we wish you a very Merry Christmas and a Joyous New Year.
God Bless the USA!
Sarah Palin”
Saw this coming when she resigned back in July.
Dems and RINOS’ be verrrrry afraid, the Cuda is coming for you!!!
nwsseeker on December 14, 2009 at 7:15 PM
WTF do you think!
royzer on December 14, 2009 at 8:33 PM
You betcha. Halvorson has proven she is a party line hack that will honor and obey the parties wishes over her consituants. She clearly has demonstrated that she cant face her constituants by failing to have even one “in person” town hall, and in her “phone in” town halls, she dodged questions such as would she be willing to put her family on whatever “public option” was passed, or would defer qeustions to a guest, in one case a “doctor” that serves in the Obama administration. She played the I havent made up my mind yet game until just before the vote when she sent out email attempting to explain why she would vote for the House version with a strong public option, against the wishes of the majority of the American people, and those in her conservative leaning district. Most of Illinois is conservative, with the state being literally ruined by the cook county democrats and their power in numbers activism/socialism. Illinois would be better off if chicago/cook county would become its own state. It is nothing but a liberal burden. All across the country, these cities outgrow themselves as fraud, greed, entitlement and social engineering are cooked up by liberal politicians and the rest of the countries rural populations have to pay the price of their inefficient tax and spend policy. Now we have the Chicago/Cook county machine in the national office trying to turn the whole country into Cook County Illinois. hey, check it yourself. Mayor Daly want to take away our right to bear arms. You can bet your a$$ Obama would support that too, and Durbin. I know Obama will be done in 2012, but I dont know how we get rid of Durbin. Halvorson is easy. Burris is done.
CriticalUpdate on December 14, 2009 at 8:42 PM
My prediction: GOP takes the house, gains 5 in the senate.
Vashta.Nerada on December 14, 2009 at 8:43 PM
I will hope against hope, and do what I can to help, that the GOP takes the House next year.
I was strongly against impeachment of Clinton, I thought it was an own-goal on the GOP’s part, but watching the behavior of the Dems over the past five years or so I’d like nothing better than to see Nancy Pelosi stripped of her keys to the 757 on C-SPAN.
Then plaster Obama’s EPA under a craprain of subpoenae so dense that they put out an endangerment filing on paper.
JEM on December 14, 2009 at 8:54 PM
218 huh. I’m wondering how many democrat fat butts it takes to fill 218 seats! Couldn’t be more than 160.
Bikerken on December 14, 2009 at 9:12 PM
“Limbo lowah now…limbo lowah now…How lowwwwww can you goooooo?”
Rich Fader on December 15, 2009 at 12:09 PM
ericdondero on December 14, 2009 at 6:23 PM
You are referring to my “rep”, Parker Griffith (AL-5, D). And don’t believe a word he says. He’s one of the “blue dogs” who keeps getting permission to vote against what he knows the voters of North Alabama don’t want. That permission is coming from, you guessed it, Pelosi. He will vote for her for speaker (again) and there is nothing anyone can do about it.
I blame the local voters of course. This is the same district that kept sending Bud Cramer to Washington, no matter how many votes he made against local interests.
The good news? We have a couple of pretty good contenders who are, so far, all about trashing Griffith and not each other. The first one to go negative on the other loses my vote.
runawayyyy on December 15, 2009 at 12:15 PM
“The downside of this? A Blue Dog who’s given up on being reelected is a Blue Dog with nothing to lose in voting for a liberal ObamaCare bill.” It seems to me that the converse is also a potential. The Democratic leaders could chop off substantial amounts of contributions for defectors. This could be an announcement of complete freedom to vote either way as they wish and be able to tell the Washington establishment in both party where they can put their pressure.
{^_^}
herself on December 15, 2009 at 2:42 PM