Oh my: GOP within one on generic ballot
posted at 2:55 pm on December 10, 2009 by Allahpundit
They’re already ahead of the Democrats on Gallup’s generic ballot of registered voters, but as James Earl Jones famously said, this is CNN. From a sample of more than 1,000 adults:
According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Thursday, 40 percent of people questioned say the U.S. would be better off if Democrats ran Congress while 39 percent feel things would be better if Republicans took charge on Capitol Hill. The 1-point margin is a statistical tie.
Support for Democrats is down from a 10-point advantage in August and a 25-point margin in January.
Remember, the generic ballot among registered voters on election day 1994 was dead even at 46. No wonder the Dems want to boost the debt ceiling by a few trillion now so that they won’t have to do it next year: The ice could conceivably be so thin politically for them by then that any jolt will send them crashing through.
And yet, believe it or not, the ballot’s not the big takeaway from this poll. Behold the state of health reform, Hopenchange-style:
Ace has been speculating for months that ObamaCare won’t truly be on life support until we hit 60 percent opposition. Not only do we have that in one question here, but in the other, you’ve got fully 75 percent who don’t expect to benefit personally from the legislation. A caveat, though: Those questions were asked before Reid floated his new public-option “compromise,” which I’m guessing will goose support just because the public’s already comfortable with the Medicare brand. If the great fear of health-care reform is unintended consequences, what better way to calm those fears than by selling it as an expansion of a program whose consequences are already known? Medicare’s bankrupting the country; now it’ll simply bankrupt us a little bit sooner.
It should be noted that 53 percent say they support some kind of public option, but then, 66 percent of the public doesn’t even know what the public option is. For your viewing pleasure, here’s Jim DeMint expressing his Christmas wish for a “few new Republicans” to work with next year. Per these numbers and Rove’s point about the GOP’s “stellar” recruiting class, he should get them.
Blowback
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Keep the favorables in the 30′s and it will be apparent that on hard core dems support it.
Starlink on December 10, 2009 at 2:59 PM
The key is to keep buying time. The more details about the leftist agenda that come out, the more the sheeple will come around. Too many people just don’t pay attention until it’s too late….
search4truth on December 10, 2009 at 2:59 PM
Just… a few more… crayons… until Completion.
Abby Adams on December 10, 2009 at 3:00 PM
Opposition does seem to be growing with each passing day. The goal right now has to be pushing this into 2010. Obama has given every speech he can to muster additional support and it hasn’t worked. Another month of debate and a few more Dems may finally become too timid to vote for it.
Doughboy on December 10, 2009 at 3:02 PM
The democrats are clueless as to how pissed off people are out here. Dems that thought they were in safe positions are going to have a rude awakening. Lifelong dems that I know are now Republican and can’t wait to get these bums out and to take our Country back. The Republicans better get their heads on straight and no more “Mr. Nice Guy, let’s get along”. No aisle crossing. This is war and we have them in our crosshairs too.
suzyk on December 10, 2009 at 3:02 PM
Bloomberg news Poll has the GOP 42-38 in the generic Ballot.
artist on December 10, 2009 at 3:03 PM
Too many American’s also have short term memory problems or think their own CongressCritter’s are just peachy.
Knucklehead on December 10, 2009 at 3:04 PM
If Republicans actually put up the right kind of candidates, and if (a much bigger if) this poll isn’t just another version of people disliking members of Congress from other people’s districts, then REAL change is possible.
doufree on December 10, 2009 at 3:07 PM
I almost tempted to move to a Democrat-controlled congressional district so I can pick up a seat next year.
JammieWearingFool on December 10, 2009 at 3:08 PM
+1,000 thread winner!
Madame, if you ever decide to run for office, please let me know so I can contribute my time and money to your campaign and move to your district so I can vote for you!
VoyskaPVO on December 10, 2009 at 3:08 PM
If the message gets out that Medicare expansion is just ‘public option’ and single payer in wolf’s clothing then it is a last ditch effort.
With the favorables in the 30′s and worse in respective states, I don’t see how Lincoln, Bayh, and Nelson vote for it. Lieberman is already a ‘no’, and Nelson said he had a line in the sand on abortion, but obviously not.
Snowe and Collins you never know.
Starlink on December 10, 2009 at 3:09 PM
Is the generic “adult” sample usually the one more favorable toward Democrats as opposed to “registered” or “likely voters” in these polls?
JammieWearingFool on December 10, 2009 at 3:10 PM
Yes.
Abby Adams on December 10, 2009 at 3:12 PM
OT: Hot Air is not covering this.
Fistgate.
http://gatewaypundit.firstthings.com/ and http://biggovernment.com/ ……are
An on-line petition has been started calling for the removal of Kevin Jennings as “Safe Schools Czar” (if ever there was a misnomer, there it is!)
Please — sign it, tweet it, blog it and spread the word. This needs hundreds of thousands of signatures from American citizens who are fed up with the depravity and willful perversion being funded by our tax dollars in the guise of ‘education’.
http://www.grassrootsnation.com/events/jennings.aspx
ms on December 10, 2009 at 3:15 PM
You can join my “Adopt a Safe Seat Voter” program. We do not check for ID in IL, so it is easy to vote for someone else.
WashJeff on December 10, 2009 at 3:15 PM
If Medicare is already heading towards life support because of near-term insolvency, then how, pray tell, is expanding its enrollees a panacea for the Dems’ futile wheeling and dealing?
onlineanalyst on December 10, 2009 at 3:17 PM
If the gop does not make a comeback in 2010 our country is doomed.
SHARPTOOTH on December 10, 2009 at 3:18 PM
They claim that conservatives want to cut taxes to force spending cuts.
They want to spend money like it is going out of style to force higher taxes.
WashJeff on December 10, 2009 at 3:20 PM
Hey, we’ve never had a true, republican, non-filibuster proof majority where democrats couldn’t sabotage or undermine republican presidents or razor-thin congressional republican majorities. It couldn’t get any worse than what we have now or what we’ve had for the past 80+ years. Now that’s change I can believe in.
mozalf on December 10, 2009 at 3:21 PM
American Power tracked-back with, ‘New Poll Finds GOP Running Even in Congressional Popularity: Four of Five Say ObamaCare Will Increase Deficit, 85 Percent Expect Tax Increases!’.
Donald Douglas on December 10, 2009 at 3:23 PM
Maybe this will push them over the edge House passes 1.1 trillion in spending
I am sure this will help push republican a little higher in that poll now. Plus we are in the whole already with unprecented debt numbers and it’s not even 2 months into the new budget.
Brat4life on December 10, 2009 at 3:27 PM
This bill will kill private insurance, layoff thousands and usher in the governement takeover and unionization of doctors, nurses, hospitals and pharmacys.
An insurer cannot insure for pre-existing conditions. Take your auto to a car insurer after sustaining front end damage and demad to buy a policy and have them pay for the repairs.
Government mandated coverage for all will kill off insurers. If a person does not have to pay for routine office visits or co-pays, out of pocket expenses, the unemployed, fat, bored, dope smokin, pants draggin professional baby makers will flood the clinics and emergency rooms every time they get a hangnail or head ache and insurers will go broke payin. Not to mention Medicare does not pay enough to sustain hospitals doctors and clinics.
Kill the bill. Nelson is a former Insurance exec and States Division of Insurance Director. He knows this as do most all these Dems. If they vote for it they ARE voting for a public option.
Call em, write em and tell em you are aware that they are aware and will pay with their jobs.
Game on!
Call em and don’t let em weasal!
dhunter on December 10, 2009 at 3:29 PM
test….test
phineas on December 10, 2009 at 3:31 PM
Headlines are gone.
phineas on December 10, 2009 at 3:32 PM
Republicans turn out more than Democrats, especially when they’re angry at a Democrat status quo.
Plus, there are lots of inner-city districts which vote over 80% Democrat, and Republicans don’t even bother campaigning there, while even the most conservative districts usually give less than 70% to a Republican. If Republicans win districts with smaller average margins than Democrats, if the total votes are even, Republicans win more seats.
There’s a good chance of re-taking the House next year, if Republicans can find solid, no-nonsesne, articulate conservative challengers in competitive districts now held by Democrats.
Re-taking the Senate would be virtually impossible, since there are not enough vulnerable Democrats up for election next year, so ObamaCare, if passed, could not be repealed. It needs to be stopped NOW, by serious pressure on red-state Democrats up for re-election in 2010 or 2012. If ObamaCare in its current form passes, people will be paying extra taxes with no benefits for three years until 2012, which voters could blame on Senators who voted for it. Opponents should remind Senators up for election in 2012 and their voters of that fact.
Steve Z on December 10, 2009 at 3:32 PM
Can I suggest mine? I’ll door to door and stuff envelopes and everything!
JusDreamin on December 10, 2009 at 3:33 PM
…aaannnnnddddd they’re back.
phineas on December 10, 2009 at 3:33 PM
I think the danger of falling off the wagon will come as elections near. He will start throwing money around (our money)..and start to talk conservative ideas, and if people have not figured out that its just a tactic and a strategy, they will get sucked back in.
This is what Maobama did in the election..if McCain had an idea..or any conservative expressed something that seemed to resonate with the people, he would make it his idea.
How many people are not keeping track of his promises then and his actions now?? Far too many imo, and thats why his numbers are as high as they are.
Itchee Dryback on December 10, 2009 at 3:34 PM
FIFY
UltimateBob on December 10, 2009 at 3:35 PM
I think, as with Obama, if you pay too much attention to health care you miss the story. By next November, either it will be dead, or (more likely) it will be passed but nothing much will be happening yet, taking a lot of air out of the “the sky is falling” rhetoric.
Watch the economy.
Bleeds Blue on December 10, 2009 at 3:37 PM
Put down those crayons, wingnuts!
Everybody knows Obama’s and the Democrats’ approvals are, like, 154% each.
Ahahah!
Good Lt on December 10, 2009 at 3:38 PM
And when stuff begins “happening” and health care collapses here because of the Obamacrats, we’ll relish in reminding you whose fault it is.
Because we all know – including you – whose fault it will be.
The Democrats’ fault. This is their “crusade” and their bill. This HAS TO BE DONE – AND DONE THEIR WAY OR ELSE WE ALL DIE. And it will be their ass as well.
Can’t wait!
Good Lt on December 10, 2009 at 3:39 PM
The headline scared the crap out of me! I thought at first glance the health care bill was within one vote. Guess you can see what’s been on my mind.
Trusser13 on December 10, 2009 at 3:39 PM
I’ll believe the Dems are in for a shellacking in 2010 when Obama cabinet secretaries start buying ‘vacation houses’ in non-extradition countries.
Criminalization of policy differences is a bad idea, to be sure, and it was just about as idiotic of the GOP to hound Clinton as it’s been for the Democrats to threaten Yoo, Cheney, etc. but this time I’m betting that there’s real malfeasance in the EPA and DOJ, to name two.
JEM on December 10, 2009 at 3:40 PM
ditto.I have a liberal relative who was recently diagnosed with an inoperable condition,she is liberal no more and wants the bums out.
inevitable on December 10, 2009 at 3:42 PM
I’m confused, is not healthcare reform urgent?
WashJeff on December 10, 2009 at 3:42 PM
The scary thing is that it seems to be the intent of National Socialist Democrats to trash the economy with all of this out control spending – aka Cloward-Piven.
There doesn’t seem to be a logical alternative explanation to their behavior.
Insert witty screen name here on December 10, 2009 at 3:44 PM
We’re doing that now, champ. That’s the same economy that your boys claimed to have “saved,” with the unemployment rate they implored us would absolutely not go above 8% if we passed their criminally-irresponsible “stimulus” bill without reading it or debating it.
So the economy’s crap, unemployment’s at double digits and the Democrats are making it worse.
And they’re going to pay in less than a year. Hope the era of hopenchange was fun for you and your friends!
Oh, sure. So urgent that we NEEDED to pass it in August or else we would surely face some unseen “crisis” falling from the sky within days or weeks. Or something. That was the Obamacrat fearmongering for that week.
So far, the only crisis I see is a threat to my existing and adequate health care coming from the Democrats in Congress and the President.
Good Lt on December 10, 2009 at 3:48 PM
On this topic even the few trolls that show up look like a drunk swatting at a gnat.
Aviator on December 10, 2009 at 3:51 PM
its cnn (commununust news network, clinton news network) – and you can bet they oversampled dumocrats by 7-10 points, so im sure repubs are ahead here as well as gallup
sidewinder22 on December 10, 2009 at 3:52 PM
It’s no wonder The One is on his Hope and Climate Change Road Show 2009 instead of getting his name dirtied with the last dying gasps of ReidCare.
pedestrian on December 10, 2009 at 3:58 PM
What economy? Jobs are still going overseas, jobs in the US are being killed, “health care” taxes threaten to make the situation even worse and this climate hoax will finish us off.
darwin on December 10, 2009 at 3:59 PM
It is. But it rolls out over a series of years.
Then you’ll have months of shadenfreud ahead and a happy November.
I was just adding my 2 cents to the
chicken innardspoll reading going on.Bleeds Blue on December 10, 2009 at 4:08 PM
Yeah months of schadenfreud. Life is all about elections isn’t it? You truly are a f*#@ing tool. Real people are out of work. The economy is in the crapper big time due to the insecurity that Obama’s policies bring into the market.
Of course you are a leftist so people and prosperity are the enemy.
daesleeper on December 10, 2009 at 4:12 PM
Democrats.
This is what happens when do nothing but be ceaselessly stupid.
Track-A-'Crat on December 10, 2009 at 4:15 PM
I missed out a “you”, obviously…
Track-A-'Crat on December 10, 2009 at 4:15 PM
apparently you’re unfamiliar with the ill-concealed glee each piece of bad economic news is greeted with here.
Since at least Roosevelt, Dems and we libs have done very well for prosperity, and I am cautiously optimistic we’ll come through again.
Bleeds Blue on December 10, 2009 at 4:16 PM
Blanche Lincoln, Ben Nelson, and Mary Landrieu must look at those numbers on health care, and their political life must flash before their eyes.
Dems in red states really have to start asking themselves: “Why am I being asked to walk the plank for a POTUS who clearly does not give a damn about me?”
JohnGalt23 on December 10, 2009 at 4:21 PM
Yeah, Roosevelt was awesome for prosperity.
No, wait.
Learn some history, Bleeds Blue. The actions of FDR did nothing but prolong the Great Depression.
Track-A-'Crat on December 10, 2009 at 4:24 PM
Most of what you say is correct. Here comes the but!
The taxes start in 2010 while the benefits don’t start until 2013-2015 depending on what version gets through. I guarantee you that will get the attention of a lot of folks.
chemman on December 10, 2009 at 4:25 PM
Liberal entitlements are around 100 trillion in the hole about to expand under Obama, so you have a very creative way of measuring your own success.
Debt ceiling just got raised another $1.8 trillion this morning.
Chuck Schick on December 10, 2009 at 4:28 PM
GDP grew and unemployment dropped every year except one of the Roosevelt administration…even before the war.
Only two Presidents this century have left the broader economy in worse shape when the left office than when they entered: Hoover and W.
Remind me of all those balanced Republican budgets.
Bleeds Blue on December 10, 2009 at 4:38 PM
You know that and I know that. But the stupid, ignorant, idiots that put Barry Dunham in the Whitehouse refuse to believe (in the face of evidence) that medicare is bankrupt. The only thing we can do is make sure stupid, ignorant, idiots never elect anybody ever again. Now, do you understand the problem?
Blacksmith8 on December 10, 2009 at 4:39 PM
My read is as follows on properity
FDR; terrible
Truman: Good
Eisenhower:Average
Kennedy: Very Good
LBJ: Average
Nixon: below average to awful
Carter: awful to terrible
Reagan: average to very good
Bush I: average
Clinton: average to good
Bush II: good to below average
Obama: Jury still out but if he doesn’t change direction he will give FDR a run for the worst economy in the past 100 years.
Given that, we both know that congress has more impact on the economy by their spending and regulatory policies than the President.
chemman on December 10, 2009 at 4:39 PM
And then 1937 came.
Obama’s not done yet.
$100-$400B deficits vs $1.5-$2T deficits we have now.
Chuck Schick on December 10, 2009 at 4:41 PM
And BB you still didn’t address my point:
How do you keep yelling “GIMME GIMME GIMME” knowing what you know? Someone responsible is going to have eventually get election and clean up Obama’s debt.
Chuck Schick on December 10, 2009 at 4:43 PM
A little reckless with the data. It was a bimodal curve.
He took office and employment took a hit over his policies then began to drop. Against the wisdom of some of his advisors he implemented policies his second term that spiked unemployment again. Then it began to drop.
While GDP may have grown that is different than saying he did very well for prosperity.
chemman on December 10, 2009 at 4:45 PM
The hypocrisy of the HA commenter comes out in full bloom on this thread. The response to a rather dubious poll is really amusing, especially after praising 44% Jim DeMint for wanting to kill off RINOs, and after blasting Mitch McConnell for his handling of the Senate Obamacare debate “because Rush Is Right.”
BradSchwartze on December 10, 2009 at 4:46 PM
And then growth returned in ’38, ’39, ’40, and ’41.
But his bar is quite low.
We’ll burn that bridge when we come to it.
As percentage of GDP, debt levels will be at Bush levels by 2012, a fine performance given the recession.
Bleeds Blue on December 10, 2009 at 4:48 PM
That is some good THC you are inhaling. You seem to be on the wrong thread.
chemman on December 10, 2009 at 4:49 PM
With comments of that depth, Brad, no wonder you don’t post them more often.
Track-A-'Crat on December 10, 2009 at 4:52 PM
Up until this one we could agree to disagree on interpretations of economic health. Hard data please.
chemman on December 10, 2009 at 4:52 PM
Ahh, displaying all the forward thinking for which Left-wingers are renowned.
Track-A-'Crat on December 10, 2009 at 4:54 PM
As did sharp joblosses:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Employment_Graph_-_1920_to_1940.svg
Obama would never be president without a low bar. Seriously, what has the man ever done that hasn’t started with “the first black…”?
It’s burning BB. Social security is folding 7 years ahead of schedule, Medicare’s up next.
Utopia’s fun and games till the bill comes.
A complete lie:
http://i560.photobucket.com/albums/ss46/chuck_schick_pb/debttogdp.png
Chuck Schick on December 10, 2009 at 4:55 PM
You’re not thinking, your wishing. Unemployment went from 3% in 1929 to 23.5% in 1932. In response to to FDR, the freefall stopped, with unemployment at 24.8% in ’33. Byt by 1937 it had dropped ten points, to 14.2%. It spiked again in ’38 when he listened to the “fiscal responsibility” crowd, up to 19%, but dropped to 17% by ’39 and 9.7% by 1941.
Bleeds Blue on December 10, 2009 at 4:55 PM
I misspoke, I meant deficit.
Bleeds Blue on December 10, 2009 at 4:57 PM
Another complete lie:
http://i560.photobucket.com/albums/ss46/chuck_schick_pb/AI-AY069_CAPITA_NS_20091014135253.gif
Chuck Schick on December 10, 2009 at 5:01 PM
Exactly a bimodal curve. I stand corrected on the original spiked comment. It went up, went down, then went up again and then went down.
So it was the “fiscally responsibility” crowd that told him to add regulations that caused the increased in unemployment..
Interesting
chemman on December 10, 2009 at 5:03 PM
That answers my question also about hard facts.
The total deficit increase for bush averaged about 400 billion per year. For 8 years that is 3.2 trillion dollars
I’ll give you half the TARP as being Bushes responsibility so 3.2 + 0.4 = 3.6 trillion.
Since the democrats in charge of Congress would not pass a fiscal budget for spending until Obama came on board they own the 2009 budget. The deficit for FY 2009 was about 1.4 trillion. Remove Bushes .4 trillion for his portion of TARP and Obama owns 1 trillion of it.
At the current rate of .289 trillion every 2 months that will be about 1.7 trillion for FY 2010. If the current rates continue he will reach 3.4 trillion in the middle of FY 2011 not in 2012. If the CBO projections are correct and he gets a second term he is on pace to double the total deficit in slightly over 8 years.
So while what Bush II did earned an awful from me on the economy. Without a change Obama will earn a very terrible from me by 2016.
Yes I know that if the economy rebounds in a very robust manner then Obama may look better in 2016.
chemman on December 10, 2009 at 5:16 PM
yes, the Dems are totally clueless about how much people are pissed off. And one reason is that they have no one to tell them
CNN artilce in the 8th graph:
This must have been written by some dKos person. 1 out of 5 think they’ll be helped, but more people (1 out of 4) think no-one will be helped.
From the same people that love to hear Gore reading his poems. Decline of the Republic before your eyes.
r keller on December 10, 2009 at 5:35 PM
Wow, you are really a textbook case of a little knowledge being a dangerous thing. Anyways, I’ll just have to stick with my economic professors and literature which seem to paint FDR’s years as anything but the paragon of prosperity.
I imagine you still haveb’t figured out why the Soviet Union’s economy collapsed when the government was spending and regulating like none other? Or is it just that Obama is going to finally do it “right”?
jarodea on December 10, 2009 at 6:14 PM
Bleeds lose the knee pads
Sheesh
CWforFreedom on December 10, 2009 at 7:09 PM
That would imply that there is such a thing as “bad THC”.
Which is of course nonsense.
JohnGalt23 on December 10, 2009 at 7:23 PM
Bleeds Blue on December 10, 2009 at 4:55 PM
Where are the JOBS, Bleeds Blue? Between now and, oh, 11/6/12, about 200K jobs PER MONTH are going to have to be created on O’s watch. Being that this nation hasn’t had that job growth rate in 10 years (and THAT was due mainly to the buildout of the commercial internet), let’s just say Obama will be in big trouble.
And trust me; your side will not be able to explain to the public “Hey, some of those job losses were Bush’s; we’re only responsible for 4 million of those 7 million jobs lost.”
BradSchwartze on December 10, 2009 at 7:28 PM
And one more thing, Bleeds Blue: If we had to look at job creation in an honest way, we’d have to conclude that the only way 200K or more jobs per month could be created is if the cost of hiring gets significantly cheaper. If you’ve paid attention to the monthly jobs reports, you’ll find that labor costs are still rising, albeit at an average of 0.2%/month.
And as for Obamacare, do you see anything in Obamacare that would indicate lower labor costs?
BradSchwartze on December 10, 2009 at 7:31 PM
And when you die, JWF, get buried in Illinois so you can keep on voting.
Red State State of Mind on December 10, 2009 at 8:15 PM