Obama down to 50% in CBS poll

posted at 10:12 am on December 10, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

How could this have happened?  For one thing, the CBS/NYT poll no longer gives the Democrats a double-digit boost in its sample, although they’re still putting their thumbs on the scale.  But even more than that, the electorate simply is becoming less enchanted with Obama the longer he’s in office, and on what used to be key Democratic issues:

President Obama’s job approval rating sits at 50 percent in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll, the lowest level it has reached in CBS News polling.

The president still has a net favorable rating, with 50 percent approving of his performance and 39 percent disapproving. But as Mr. Obama has confronted challenges ranging from the economy to the war in Afghanistan to health care, public perception of his handling of his job has steadily fallen.

In April, Mr. Obama’s approval rating was 68 percent. By August, it was down to 56 percent. It dropped to 53 percent last month before falling another three points in the latest poll.

Democrats still largely back the president, with 82 percent expressing their approval. Just 19 percent of Republicans approve of his performance, however, and independents are split: 43 percent approve of his performance and 41 percent disapprove.

Americans cite the economy as the issue most important to them, and on that issue the president’s approval rating has been in decline. It now sits at 47 percent, down two points from last month and down seven points from October.

In this sample, Democrats only have a nine-point edge over Republicans, as opposed to the normal 14-15 point edge.  That’s still far too high, of course.  Gallup has the party identification gap down to six points, and Rasmussen’s latest survey has it down to half of that.  But that’s not the only reason to suspect the CBS/NYT polling methodology.  That gap is from the adjusted sample.  Here’s the data from before and after the adjustment:

Party Raw Adjusted Raw % Adj %
Democrat 363 368 35.2% 35.7%
Republican 291 276 28.2% 26.8%
Independent 377 387 36.6% 37.5%
Total 1031 1031 100.0% 100.0%

Before the “adjustment,” Democrats had a seven-point lead over Republicans and a slight disadvantage to independents, which comes close to the split shown in the Gallup poll from last October.  After the adjustment, Democrats wind up with a nine-point advantage over Republicans, which is two points higher than Obama got in winning the election 13 months ago — when he won plenty of independents and crossover Republicans.

Even with that kind of bias, Obama’s numbers are declining rather obviously.  As the CBS report notes, Obama had a 68% approval rating eight months ago, but health care and the economy have dragged him down.  Before Obama’s election, those two issues were perennial powerhouses for Democrats.  Now Obama is underwater on health care, 42/50 even with the boost of Democrats in the poll, and within the margin of error on the economy, 47/43.  On Afghanistan, a majority of 51% approve of sending more troops, but 55% disapprove of Obama’s publication of timetables on the surge, so he’s not winning on the traditional Republican issues, either.

And how do people think we should fund that war effort?  Only 10% say “tax increases.”  Fifty-three percent say “spending cuts.”  If that’s what a majority of Americans want, they’re not going to get it from this Congress and this President, and Obama can expect the next CBS/NYT poll to get even more unfriendly.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

And how do people think we should fund that war effort? Only 10% say “tax increases.” Fifty-three percent say “spending cuts.” If that’s what a majority of Americans want, they’re not going to get it from this Congress and this President, and Obama can expect the next CBS/NYT poll to get even more unfriendly.

Interesting choice of president..

the_nile on December 10, 2009 at 10:15 AM

This is impossible. Isn’t CBS contractually obligated to keep him above 50%?

Daggett on December 10, 2009 at 10:16 AM

Just 19 percent of Republicans approve of his performance

That right there is nonsense, there’s no way that 19% of republicans approve of 0bama, I’d have a hard enough time believing 5%.

This poll is as legit as the global warming “data”.

Rebar on December 10, 2009 at 10:18 AM

If CBS has him at 50% with a skewed sample, then he must really be in the low-to-mid 40′s.

Doughboy on December 10, 2009 at 10:18 AM

Damn racist polls.

Track-A-'Crat on December 10, 2009 at 10:21 AM

Just 19 percent of Republicans approve of his performance, however, and independents are split

I don’t understand how a person can consider her/him self a Republican and not loath Obama.

farright on December 10, 2009 at 10:22 AM

Is this poll written in crayon too?

acleaver on December 10, 2009 at 10:24 AM

I don’t understand how a person can consider her/him self a Republican and not loathe Obama.

farright on December 10, 2009 at 10:22 AM

I presume these would include such people as David Brooks, Peggy Noonan, and Colin Powell.

jwolf on December 10, 2009 at 10:25 AM

19% either lied on their voter registration or to the pollster

Devrbd on December 10, 2009 at 10:26 AM

Oh, crap….does this mean Katie Couric will write another “poem”??! Blech.

atlgal on December 10, 2009 at 10:28 AM

You know, I wonder if we’ll ever have another president who serves out his term or terms with popularity levels consistantly above 50% after the first year. Reagan and Clinton both did it. I guess George H.W. Bush did too until that last year with the tax increase/recession. But after the way the left/media ripped GWB to shreds in an utterly disgraceful way I think we can expect the same with any future republican presidents. Future democrat presidents, just like Obama, will say anything and everything to get elected. Their promises (or perceived promises) will be increasingly over the top and outrageous. Think “Barack Obama’s gonna pay my mortgage!” They will never be able to live up to their self-created expectations.

So to review: Future republican presidents will quickly decline in popularity due to being relentlessly targeted by the left and their big media mouthpieces. Future democrat presidents will swiftly lose popularity due to their inability to live up to the image they projected of themselves.

Maybe the best case scenario is that we never again have a two term president.

What say you?

t.ferg on December 10, 2009 at 10:29 AM

Since there have been a flurry of polls on Obama’s job approval numbers in the last couple of days here is a broad comparison:
—– RASM CBS IPSOS QUINN PPP MARIST
OVERALL 46/53 50/39 49/49 46/44 49/47 46/44
INDEPEND — 43/41 41/55 37/51 46/47 41/44
MEN — — — 42/50 42/54 45/47
WOMEN — — — 51/38 54/40 47/42
WHITES — — — 38/51 38/57 –
MODERATES — — — 56/33 66/28 48/37

technopeasant on December 10, 2009 at 10:29 AM

Poor Barry! Now his tame lackeys are turning on him. Can’t wait til he gets down around 35%. President Sensitive will have a meltdown.

katy the mean old lady on December 10, 2009 at 10:30 AM

Who would have thunk, that Mike’s Nature Trick could also be used to further boost Democrat participation in a poll!

MNHawk on December 10, 2009 at 10:30 AM

If CBS has him at 50% with a skewed sample, then he must really be in the low-to-mid 40’s.

Doughboy on December 10, 2009 at 10:18 AM

I think even that may be too kind. And even if one accepts the CBS numbers as representative of fact, what exactly is on the horizon that might his trend? More regulation, a stagnant economy, passage of a NHC bill that a clear majority don’t want (and that’s in the abstract, just wait until it’s implemented), KSM’s trial, a garden variety int’l incident ala Iran hostage crisis. A pundit on the radio said yesterday that Obama has nowhere to go but down given his proposed policies. I think that he’ll look back at these numbers as “the good old days” right about January 2013.

volnation on December 10, 2009 at 10:30 AM

Coincidence ?? you decide

J_Crater on December 10, 2009 at 10:35 AM

This is impossible. Isn’t CBS contractually obligated to keep him above 50%?

Daggett on December 10, 2009 at 10:16 AM

Maybe the last checks bounced..

the_nile on December 10, 2009 at 10:36 AM

Homogenized.

LibTired on December 10, 2009 at 10:38 AM

Poison

The One shouldn’t be as popular as He is. Our academia produced Him. Our media elected Him. And they can’t see the destruction yet. Worse, they are hiding it.

How do we show the NYT and CBS the damage they have been doing? How throughly do they have to wreck this country with an ideology that completely misses rudimentary economic facts like our inability to afford the social programs they champion?

When was the last time they were concerned about the guys in “flyover” country or the production of goods and services? How long will China carry us while we are guided by people whose main worry is touchy feely PC issues and meeting deadlines for writng papers?

IlikedAUH2O on December 10, 2009 at 10:38 AM

I think we have found an alternative occupation for the AGW ‘scientists’. There is another decline to hide.

Vashta.Nerada on December 10, 2009 at 10:39 AM

I think even that may be too kind. And even if one accepts the CBS numbers as representative of fact, what exactly is on the horizon that might his trend? More regulation, a stagnant economy, passage of a NHC bill that a clear majority don’t want (and that’s in the abstract, just wait until it’s implemented), KSM’s trial, a garden variety int’l incident ala Iran hostage crisis. A pundit on the radio said yesterday that Obama has nowhere to go but down given his proposed policies. I think that he’ll look back at these numbers as “the good old days” right about January 2013.

volnation on December 10, 2009 at 10:30 AM

True. I think O’Reilly mentioned this last night. And that’s the guy who’s been overly kind to Obama and even gave him a B for his performance on job creation.

Everyone who thinks Obama will bounce back in the polls assumes the economy will continue to rebound. But people have been predicting an economic recovery for a year now. Yes, normally a recession is followed by a period of growth, but that can be stymied by an overly intrusive federal government(see Japan in the 1990′s).

And we’ve never had a government as hands-on as this one. They’re literally nationalizing the economy, including their latest attempt to take over health care. They also wanna regulate energy. Energy and health care pretty much affect every aspect of our lives. Couple that with the massive deficits that will have to be paid for somehow, and one has to wonder how can the economy ever recover from this?

The only way Obama and the Dems don’t destroy this country is if their agenda doesn’t get passed. So they’ll either be failures for succeeding or failures for failing. Either way, it’s Waterloo.

Doughboy on December 10, 2009 at 10:39 AM

I’ve noticed the type in the article is black. That’s RACIST. It SHOULD be RED. Wait. That’s communist. OK, stick with racist. Or maybe green, meaning the color of money. You know, that stuff the United States used to have a lot more of and wasn’t printed in China.

bradley11 on December 10, 2009 at 10:40 AM

So to review: Future republican presidents will quickly decline in popularity due to being relentlessly targeted by the left and their big media mouthpieces. Future democrat presidents will swiftly lose popularity due to their inability to live up to the image they projected of themselves.

Maybe the best case scenario is that we never again have a two term president.

What say you?

t.ferg on December 10, 2009 at 10:29 AM

The fundamental problem with the Republicans is that they are woefully outmatched on the “ruthlessness” scale when put next to Dems. As Obama has demonstrated, the Dems will go scorched earth to get into power and once there go full nuclear to enact their plans. Repub’s on the other hand want to play nice in the full spirit of being bi-partisan and statesmanship. What they don’t realize as while they’re saying this the Dems are stowing a shank to give them a full appreciation of the “Chicago way”. In short, the Repubs are soft villagers begging to be plundered while the Dems are the ruthless Huns preparing to take what they want because they can.

To answer your question, if the Repubs would bone up and fight for what this country is all about instead of cowering like animals then people would follow them by the legion, they would win elections regularly and the oppos would have a much harder time knocking those poll numbers down. People approve of leaders and strength (much like GWB was approved of immediately post-9/11) but mock weakness for being, well, weak. Hence, fight for the core principles that make this country great, project strength, take no prisoners and Republicans won’t have to worry about falling poll numbers because there won’t be any.

volnation on December 10, 2009 at 10:42 AM

t.ferg on December 10, 2009 at 10:29 AM

I think that we will see many more. People are waking up all over the country. Obama signs and bumper stickers have almost vanished here. I’m in Broward Co. Fl. the land of gimmee.

katy the mean old lady on December 10, 2009 at 10:42 AM

This is impossible. Isn’t CBS contractually obligated to keep him above 50%?

Rounding error

alexwest on December 10, 2009 at 10:44 AM

volnation on December 10, 2009 at 10:42 AM

From your mouth to Michael Steele’s ears. The gloves need to come off. Think back last year. So much ammunition wasted.

katy the mean old lady on December 10, 2009 at 10:47 AM

Doughboy on December 10, 2009 at 10:39 AM

Bill O.’s economic grade of The One may have been fair but he totally missed three important factors. First is the delay in the $787 billion program to lower the unemployment quickly. This causes misery and costs tax revenues. Second, the pork in the bill which our grandkids may have to pay off. Third is the fact that The One is chasing wing ding programs in other areas that have to have a negative impact on our economy. Macroeconomic simulations have incredibly complex programs and ole Bill O. should have had someone with a more cerebral approach to the subject give him some input before he gave The One a decent grade.

The One may deserve a B but ‘the folks’ deserve the best evaluation of their suffering that Bill and The Factor people can find for them. This is serious business. We surely have future generations in debt and may yet face an economic collapse, Bill.

IlikedAUH2O on December 10, 2009 at 10:51 AM

In this sample, Democrats only have a nine-point edge over Republicans, as opposed to the normal 14-15 point edge.  That’s still far too high, of course.

CBS… still poll dancing after all these years.

TXUS on December 10, 2009 at 10:51 AM

(Thor is pissed, dude…)

tree hugging sister on December 10, 2009 at 10:56 AM

CBS must have gotten Rasmussen’s/Gallup’s/PPP’s/Pew’s/etc’s box of crayons.

Keep f*cking those chickens, Obamabots. You’re not going to be happy next November. You’re REALLY not going to be happy.

Keep doing everything you’re currently doing. Onward, statist soldiers!

Good Lt on December 10, 2009 at 10:56 AM

[Comment deleted, user banned. — Ed]

Sean68 on December 10, 2009 at 11:01 AM

Just goes to show how much support you can buy with a couple of trillion dollars per year.

GnuBreed on December 10, 2009 at 11:02 AM

Can you hear that off in the distance? People are ripping their Obama bumper stickers off their vehicles at an alarming rate!

fbcmusicman on December 10, 2009 at 11:03 AM

No comment from Crayola Gibbs?

booter on December 10, 2009 at 11:04 AM

Sean68 on December 10, 2009 at 11:01 AM

Why would you even post something like that? It’s wrong and all you’re doing is feeding Charles exactly what he wants, which put’s us all in a bad light.

Putz!

Knucklehead on December 10, 2009 at 11:06 AM

Sean68 on December 10, 2009 at 11:01 AM

Yeah man, knock it off. The media love this kind of stuff to further their broad brush generalizations of conservatives.

volnation on December 10, 2009 at 11:08 AM

CBS, you need to do a better job of hiding the decline than that.

JohnGalt23 on December 10, 2009 at 11:12 AM

[Comment deleted, user banned. -- Ed]

Sean68 on December 10, 2009 at 11:01 AM

Thanks Ed!

fbcmusicman on December 10, 2009 at 11:12 AM

Free fallin, Obama’s free fallin…

I seriously think we should borrow from Carville… It’s the economy, stupid.

6 months from now when they are in the high 20′s Teh Won will be pining for the halcyon days of having approval in the 40′s.

wildcat84 on December 10, 2009 at 11:22 AM

Why would you even post something like that? It’s wrong and all you’re doing is feeding Charles exactly what he wants, which put’s us all in a bad light.

Putz!

Knucklehead on December 10, 2009 at 11:06 AM

Chucky is even more irrelevant than Zero is becoming.

No one should be posting crap like that, but we shouldn’t worry about what Chucky and his minions think of us. It wouldn’t surprise me if one of them was that user.

wildcat84 on December 10, 2009 at 11:26 AM

What was banned? Would someone paraphrase?

ndulik on December 10, 2009 at 11:31 AM

6 months from now when they are in the high 20’s Teh Won will be pining for the halcyon days of having approval in the 40’s.

wildcat84 on December 10, 2009 at 11:22 AM

I think absolute rock bottom for O is somewhere in the low 30s. There are enough true believers to keep him from going much lower. At that level he will have lost almost anyone with two or more functional neurons.

Aviator on December 10, 2009 at 11:32 AM

No ACORN cookies for CBS!

Caper29 on December 10, 2009 at 11:38 AM

Thanks Ed!

fbcmusicman on December 10, 2009 at 11:12 AM

Agree! Thanks Ed!

fb, Ed’s fan group on Facebook needs more members. Join us!

AsianGirlInTights on December 10, 2009 at 11:43 AM

O.K., so even CBS in what’s probably a “liar, liar, pants on fire” poll, realizes that HALF of America hates Barry, (and yes, we do hate him) but yet they still can’t seem to back away from all the manipulative slobbering over his “agenda”?.

At what point do they accept that no matter what Barry says, we don’t buy it. We are seeing his appointee’s make the most ridiculous mistakes and decisions, we all know that no matter how BAD this healthcare bill will end up being, Barry doesn’t care- he just wants it passed, apparently for the only purpose of his own ego glorification.

At one point only the die hard conservatives were contemptuous of the MSM, now I think the majority sees what out and out liars they are! I think the world could be crumbling down around me and I wouldn’t trust the MSM to give me the facts about it.

anniekc on December 10, 2009 at 11:45 AM

Looks like the Little Green Retard is having to resort to employing professional tards, for his Hot Air is teh Craziee obsessions.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/users/profile/Sean68?action=comments&display=all&sort=newest

MNHawk on December 10, 2009 at 11:47 AM

50%…. I just looked at a poll where 50% prefer Obama to Bush BUT 44% perfer Bush to Obama.

Wonder when these to numbers are going to switch… January, after the Xmas temporary workers are laid off?

CC

CapedConservative on December 10, 2009 at 11:51 AM

Just as 10.2% unemployment is going to look good in a year, 45% approval is going to be stellar.

jukin on December 10, 2009 at 11:58 AM

That right there is nonsense, there’s no way that 19% of republicans approve of 0bama, I’d have a hard enough time believing 5%.

This poll is as legit as the global warming “data”.

Rebar on December 10, 2009 at 10:18 AM

As a lifelong Republican I approve of Barak Obama’s performance, now if you’ll excuse me I have to go to my young progressive’s meeting. I have a presentation on how the Jews, George Bush, the Neo-NAZIs, and the Christianists conspired to destroy the WTC.

18-1 on December 10, 2009 at 12:02 PM

The One may deserve a B but ‘the folks’ deserve the best evaluation of their suffering that Bill and The Factor people can find for them. This is serious business. We surely have future generations in debt and may yet face an economic collapse, Bill.

IlikedAUH2O on December 10, 2009 at 10:51 AM

O’Reilly gave him a B, seriously? I’m soryy, but you post a $2T deficit and 17% unemployment and you get an F. Are we grading the president on a public school curve where if you can put a condom on a banana you automatically pass?

18-1 on December 10, 2009 at 12:06 PM

So 19% of Republicans support a Socialist.

Either the poll is skewed or those “Republicans” are skewed.

BlueStateBilly on December 10, 2009 at 1:00 PM

I’m surprised he’s still at 50%.

changer1701 on December 10, 2009 at 1:04 PM

This just makes my day get better and better…

lovingmyUSA on December 10, 2009 at 1:14 PM

Lets conduct a poll of Bozo’s popularity down at the unemployment office this coming Monday.

The local office is wall to wall almost every day and the folks are not happy.

dogsoldier on December 10, 2009 at 2:16 PM

I always miss the banned user statements.
Poopy!

On topic- I think the disgraced AGW scientists have found a new calling!

Badger40 on December 10, 2009 at 2:38 PM

Who will he blame?

diogenes on December 10, 2009 at 9:08 PM