Poll: Reid losing by 10 points to Lowden, 6 to Tarkanian

posted at 12:15 pm on December 4, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

Harry Reid has spent the last six weeks and a good chunk of money attempting to rebuild his image in Nevada.  The result?  According to a Mason-Dixon poll sponsored by the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Reid has managed to get only 38% of Nevadans to support him.  In head-to-head matchups, Reid loses against both of the major Republican challengers outside the margin of error:

Just 38 percent of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Senate majority leader, the same percentage as in October and 1 point higher than in August.

The survey of 625 registered Nevada voters by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research suggests the promotional bombardment that Reid launched more than six weeks ago has yet to hit its target.

“I’d be worried,” said Michael Franz, an assistant professor at Bowdoin College in Brunswick, Maine, who studies political advertising. “I’d stop if I had aired ads for two or three weeks and it wasn’t moving the needle.”

According to the poll commissioned by the Review-Journal, 49 percent of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of Reid, while 13 percent were neutral.

If nothing else, Reid may want to find another ad agency.  Six weeks of heavy ad rotation, and the best he can do is a 38/49 on job approval?  It’s as if they’re selling cod liver oil, which actually isn’t a bad way to think of Harry Reid: unpalatable and bad medicine to boot.

For some incumbents, bad job approval numbers can be tempered with a lack of credible opposition. Unfortunately for Reid, his opponents are outscoring him.  Sue Lowden beats Reid by ten points, while relative unknown Danny Tarkanian beats him by six.

Is this what Reid meant by “vaporizing” his opponents in 2010?  Right now, the only one getting “vaporized” by Reid is Reid himself.  And a massive ad campaign to remind Nevadans about who he is does not seem likely to change the fact that Nevadans just don’t like him.


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D. Carlson’s sells cod liver oil with a very nice lemon flavor. My kids love it.

RobD on December 4, 2009 at 12:39 PM

Your children need to “man up” and take it the old fashioned way: naturally-flavored! Like I did… as a kid… while walking to school… through drifting snow… with the wind in my face… and uphill… both ways!

ya2daup on December 4, 2009 at 1:39 PM

Harry no longer represents his state. He has become more focused on the Left and the Dem party than his constituents. Danny will kick his ass.
http://www.tark2010.org

Hey, Ed, you want to interview Danny?

Bruce NV on December 4, 2009 at 1:40 PM

Dodd doesn’t seem to be faring too well up in CT either.

Boy oh boy, wouldn’t it be great to see on election night Reid, Dodd and Boxer having to make concession speeches?

Intrepid on December 4, 2009 at 12:58 PM

I wouldn’t count on Boxer making a concession speech. Carly Fiorina is not the best candidate, and her record as CEO of Hewlett-Packard is less than stellar.

I live in CT, and I’m seriously wondering who the GOP candidate will be. Former Rep. Rob Simmons does best in the polls against Dodd, but I haven’t seen any ads or fliers for him, while a relative unknown named Tom Foley is running LOTS of ads. Maybe Simmons is guarding his “war chest” for the general election against Dodd, but he still needs to win the primary, and may need to get more TV exposure soon. Will the real Rob Simmons please wake up!

Steve Z on December 4, 2009 at 1:43 PM

Radioactive Reid.

EMD on December 4, 2009 at 12:43 PM

He can take up reside inside Yucca Mountain after he’s voted out. There he’ll slowly devolve to become Nevada’s version of Gollum, scuttling around inside and muttering, “My Porkulus, my Porkulus”!

ya2daup on December 4, 2009 at 1:43 PM

Two sweet dreams:
1: Harry Reid out in the Nevada desert, sweating profusely as he digs his own shallow grave while his smiling mob “buddies” gather around him with baseball bats.
2: Pelosi in a dirty slip, hair disheveled and makeup smeared, clinging to the nose wheel of that military jet on the tarmac, screaming “Mine…MINE!” while MP’s pry her bony fingers away and strap her to a gurney.

SKYFOX on December 4, 2009 at 1:46 PM

Nobody with the last name of Tarkanian, is relatively “unknown” in Nevada.

MarkTheGreat on December 4, 2009 at 12:43 PM

Will Danny’s father “Tark the Shark” consider sending Hawwy some of his used towels to chew on (as he reverts to sucking his thumb)?

ya2daup on December 4, 2009 at 1:47 PM

Buh bye Harry. don’t let the door hit ya where the good Lord split ya.

darwin-t on December 4, 2009 at 2:20 PM

Nancy won her reelection in a cakewalk.

AnninCA on December 4, 2009 at 12:34 PM

I’d like to see her do a perp walk.

NJ Red on December 4, 2009 at 2:39 PM

Dirty Harry Reid

Ah, The Senate Health Care Bill
Two thousand pages of manure
Material’s too tough for toilet paper
And ‘twould stink up any sewer

Whose responsible for this abortion
Who has done this dastly deed
A sniveling coward from Nevada
Named Dirty Harry Reid

On Saturday night by just five votes
Did debate legislation carry
Thanks to copious bribes to whores
Named Ben and Blanche and Mary

But Nevada ain’t California
The people here aren’t sheep
For socializing America’s medicine
You’re in trouble deep

Soon you’ll be an unemployed ghoul
Dirty Harry please take note
As a citizen you’ll come under Obamacare
You better change your vote!!!!

MaiDee on December 4, 2009 at 2:41 PM

Somewhat O/T:
.

“Right now, the only one getting “vaporized” by Reid is Reid himself.”

.
In fact, a lot of Democrats are in the same position. Their legislation is hugely unpopular, and it likely spells the end of their political career, and maybe even the Democratic party.
.
Why are they pushing this titanically unpopular legislation? Pelosi, Reid and friends aren’t doing this in spite of Obama; all three want this, but do they realize the result? Who really wants it?
.
.
Follow the money” keeps coming to mind.
.
I’m reminded of the corporate raiders and leveraged buyouts of the ’80s. Obamacare and Cap & Trade seem to fit the mould: get positioned in industries that will make money if/when those bills pass, then bail before it all crashes. It looks like the system is being gamed, specifically that the US economy is being manipulated by some to rake in some large profits for as long as possible.
.
.
Let’s really get into conspiracy theories:
– Who really wants Obamacare, C&T and the rest?
– Who really benefits (i.e., economically)?
– Who is investing in companies/industries and lobbying?
.
.
I don’t see Obama, Reid or Pelosi being smart enough to come up with such ideas. Soros, maybe, but it looks more like a political/ego thing for him. Gore’s been pushing AGW for a while and stands to win or lose big based on C&T/Dopenhagen/…
.
Pritzker, a close friend of Obama, made a lot of money off Superior, even though it failed and many people are still owed money. Perhaps various Chicago players had a dream, and didn’t realize that it could get this far.
.
The SEIU and ACORN seem extremely heavily invested, to the point of helping people in other precincts vote the right way and packing various Congressmen’s Townhalls with many people with a certain political outlook. UNion membership has been shrinking over the past 20 years or so, which means less money and power for Unions. Perhaps the SEIU sees the UAW mistake(s) and how to avoid them …
.
.
My point is that the “why” seems very important in how to defeat problems like Reid and Pelosi (yes she won, but the vocal minority of SF is not necessarily the voice of the apathetic majority of SF, who may not like outside help in voting), and how to repair the damage and catch / prevent it in the future. With the right campaign approach, 2010 may see a Republican Congress, enough to pass anything it wants.
.
Passing the right legislation, laws that are in the best interests of the American people, might just bankrupt the players.
.
Research. Fact-check. Follow the money.

Arbalest on December 4, 2009 at 3:13 PM

SKYFOX on December 4, 2009 at 1:46 PM

ROFL!!!

capejasmine on December 4, 2009 at 3:20 PM

I wouldn’t count on Boxer making a concession speech. Carly Fiorina is not the best candidate, and her record as CEO of Hewlett-Packard is less than stellar.

Carly’s voting record is more of an issue for most people. However, I think she’s overcoming it. She’s clearly from the business world and different enough yet still not too conservative for CA moderates.

She’s doing amazingly well so far. Boxer is a fixture. If she’s threatened, really?

It’s really, really a huge sign.

AnninCA on December 4, 2009 at 3:22 PM

Boxer, Ann, is widely known as THE dumbest senator. Saw one poll had her in the top 5 dumb since the founding.

Bruce NV on December 4, 2009 at 3:38 PM

6 and 10 – that’s IT?

RedNewEnglander on December 4, 2009 at 3:39 PM

Sharron Angle is the true conservative in the race.

I hope conservatives support her instead of yet another RINO.

She is making this a national race.

And the only GOP candidate to agree with MM’s opinion of Sen. Ensign:

While other Republicans ducked questions about Ensign, or astonishingly supported him despite his ham-handed payoff and cover-up attempts in a sex scandal, Angle nails the wounded politician between the eyes.

“If your wife can’t trust you, how can I trust you?” she asks.

And a brief summary of where she stands:

“It is not just about taking out Harry Reid,” said former Reno Assemblywoman Sharron Angle. “It is about taking our party back for conservative values.”

Angle contrasted her positions with those of the “Contract with America,” a 1994 platform House Republicans devised that referenced God and, among other things, had multiple planks devoted to so-called morality issues in addition to fiscal conservatism.

“We have the right Contract with America,” Angle said. “That is our Constitution.”

fred5678 on December 4, 2009 at 3:41 PM

Please let his stats stay just as miserable and ugly as he is.

elclynn on December 4, 2009 at 4:11 PM

Steve Z:

Tom Foley already announced he is switching to the CT governor’s race, which is good because with Jodi Rell not seeking reelection, there is a major vacuum there. But as far as the Senate concerned, don’t count out Mrs. McMahon, despite her WWF baggage.

IGC Blogger

igcblogger on December 4, 2009 at 4:27 PM

ya2daup on December 4, 2009 at 1:39 PM

Are you sure we didn’t have the same mother??????

BetseyRoss on December 4, 2009 at 4:49 PM

He’ll just go somewhere else like Van Jones and the other radicals and maybe be an even bigger pain in the a$$ behind the scenes.

Still, a loss (big loss preferably) would be much welcomed! ;-)

Dr. ZhivBlago on December 4, 2009 at 5:06 PM

Ms. Angle also can’t win. She couldn’t even win nomination in a Congressional District.

Bruce NV on December 4, 2009 at 5:31 PM

BetseyRoss on December 4, 2009 at 4:49 PM

Ah… no, unless yours abandoned the au naturale cod liver oil for cod liver oil pills — pale yellow, about the size of an M&M — and somehow, even though the oil was dispersed within the coated pill, these tasted worse!

ya2daup on December 4, 2009 at 5:55 PM

BetseyRoss on December 4, 2009 at 4:49 PM

ya2daup on December 4, 2009 at 5:55 PM

And if the cod liver oil pills still don’t distinguish us from each other, I gotcha on this one: did your mother take an instant liking to feeding you hot Red River Cereal for breakfast (on alternate days with oatmeal) after your father brought some home from his travels to Ontario? I could scare my siblings out of ten years’ growth if I found Red River being sold on-line and sent each one of them a box as a gag (pun intended) gift for Christmas. Then we’d have some hysterical phone calls reminiscing about our youth.

ya2daup on December 4, 2009 at 6:05 PM

SODAK did it to Tom Daschele…

NEVADA: TIME TO STEP UP, PICK UP THE BROOM, AND SWEEP OUT THE TRASH!

Khun Joe on December 4, 2009 at 6:25 PM

This news is like a hot fudge schadenfreude topped with a dollop of awesome.

sulla on December 5, 2009 at 3:35 AM

Ms. Angle also can’t win. She couldn’t even win nomination in a Congressional District.

Bruce NV on December 4, 2009 at 5:31 PM

Giving up with almost a year to go?

She lost by a whopping 400 votes to incumbent Sec. State Dean Heller (also a strong conservative – he voted aganst TARP, etc., also strong against illegal immigration).

Sharron is overall 4 wins in 6 races. I heard Tark was 0 for 2, and we really don’t need another lawyer in DC.

I have seen all 3 in person – Sharron is clear winner on conservative issues and debate skills.

Bigger point – remember Scozzafava versus Doug Hoffman?
Picking by early polls versus candidate’s record and principles is fraught with peril.

fred5678 on December 5, 2009 at 10:44 AM

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