Rasmussen: Partisan gap narrows to 2.9%
posted at 9:30 am on December 3, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
Earlier this week, Rasmussen published one of its regular surveys on partisan identification. Unlike its other polls, Rasmussen surveys adults in general, rather than likely or registered voters to determine the composition of Democrats, Republicans, and independents, which makes it similar to the Gallup effort. And like Gallup, Rasmussen’s results show a further narrowing of the difference between Republicans and Democrats, as the latter lost almost two points in a month (via Andrew Malcolm):
The number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell by nearly two percentage points in November. Added to declines earlier in the year, the number of Democrats in the nation has fallen by five percentage points during 2009.
In November, 36.0% of American adults said they were Democrats. That’s down from 37.8% a month ago and the lowest number of Democrats since December 2005. See the History of Party Trends from January 2004 to the present.
The number of Republicans inched up by just over a point in November to 33.1%. That’s within the narrow range that Republicans have experienced throughout 2009 – from a low of 31.9% to a high of 33.6%.
Two months ago, Gallup’s survey put the difference between the two parties at 6 points. Rasmussen had it almost exactly the same, at 5.9%. Both pollsters show the trend towards narrowing the gap, which is reflected indirectly in the generic Congressional ballot surveys conducted not just by Gallup and Rasmussen but also other pollsters, such as Public Policy.
This survey is important for a few reasons. First, it confirms the earlier Gallup survey and shows that the erosion of support for the Democratic agenda continues, even among Democrats. That can’t be blamed on a lack of accomplishment by Congress, but a dissatisfaction with its direction now that they have full control of the national agenda. It may also reflect the end of the blame-Bush excuse, an expiration that most Democrats in Congress and the White House have not yet discovered.
Perhaps more importantly, this serves as a marker for media pollsters whose surveys routinely include double-digit partisan gaps. When one reads the next CBS/NYT poll or the WaPo/ABC poll, with their fourteen-point gaps in partisan identification favoring Democrats, we can use these independent polls to expose them as subjective hackery rather than real data.
Blowback
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What I found interesting was how low the percentage is for either party. No wonder there’s a problem between party leadership and voter direction.
AnninCA on December 3, 2009 at 9:34 AM
If they had tweaked the data set like CBS, they could have doubled the gap.
/
Vashta.Nerada on December 3, 2009 at 9:34 AM
If we had a media that consistently di their job, Dem ID would be a hell of a lot lower than 36%. Even though their influence has waned they still keep a fair number of people uninformed.
gsherin on December 3, 2009 at 9:35 AM
so we can begin to read those polls like those AGW hockey stick graphs????
appears so…
ted c on December 3, 2009 at 9:36 AM
“We’ve” been doing that for a long time now. It never seems to make a difference in the prevailing theme that Democrats and liberalism are awesome and Conservatives and Republicans are nothing more than White Christian bigots unwilling to bend with the times.
highhopes on December 3, 2009 at 9:37 AM
With all due respect to Mr. Rasmussen, as Ronald Reagan used to say, the only poll that counts is the one taken on the first Tuesday in November.
oldleprechaun on December 3, 2009 at 9:37 AM
anecdotally I know a couple hundred lifer Dems who said they were changing to Indy after the fiasco of our primaries last yr
I am keeping my DEM status
harder to figure out if I am on the enemies list when they keep asking me for donations, lol
ginaswo on December 3, 2009 at 9:41 AM
This is obviously what is known as FakedPollGate.
misterpeasea on December 3, 2009 at 9:43 AM
highhopes
I really think they blew that lamestream media biased polling advantage with our Tea Parties
maybe GOPers and Indys didnt realize the polls were fixed heading inot the Dem primaries (Obama always showed waaaay ahead until the day before the primary when the media would suddenly show HRC closinhg so when she won they didnt look SO onvisouly bad) but once millions of Americans they KNOW came out for Tea Parties and the MSMs STILL ignored them
well.
now they KNOW for a FACT that the media is lying and obfuscating
no one I know will trust any poll and everyone I know except God Bless her, my oldest and the hapless fools who dont think it matters and are apolitical, are voting
ginaswo on December 3, 2009 at 9:43 AM
A new hide the decline video?
sammypants on December 3, 2009 at 9:43 AM
I’m sure the NYT spin will be that sales of guns and bibles are up commensurately; leading indicators.
FalseProfit on December 3, 2009 at 9:44 AM
Remember after the election of BO when Dems were claiming they were going to be in the majority for a generation and that the Republican party was just finished? Yeah, hows that working out for them?
marmaran on December 3, 2009 at 9:45 AM
Here’s the poll to keep in mind:
“Conservatives” Outnumber Libs >2:1
“Conservatives” Are Single-Largest Ideological Group
Gallup.com, June 15,2009, by Lydia Saad
petefrt on December 3, 2009 at 9:45 AM
Indies HATE the libs. Obama/Rahm fooled them once. Not again. The jig is up, and the con is OVAH.
marklmail on December 3, 2009 at 9:45 AM
I have friends who crack up now when anyone uses the word black and raaaacist each other like Invasion of the Body Snatchers the end scene, and then high five and crack up
they have really played that card til its useless
we are bitter clingy, I mean the media is just a joke now and everyone BUT the media knows it
we have reached that whatever Celestine Prohecy amount of people who believe something, so it is like in our general consciousness and bloodstream now
We know America is good, we love it, we know they are spending us into the poorhouse, we Bless America and we know
Media lies
ginaswo on December 3, 2009 at 9:46 AM
I just received this hacked email from Dan Rather:
“Must. Hide. The. Decline. Fake but accurate.”
I wonder what he means by that?
t.ferg on December 3, 2009 at 9:47 AM
It’s funny, I think you’re right with the second sentence: there’s clearly a problem with party leadership, especially with the Democrats. (The GOP OTOH have found an ingenuous way around the deleterious effects of bad leadership — just have none at all.)
But I don’t find the party identification numbers all that low. Essentially, this says that right now if you took 3 people, one will call themselves a Democrat, one will call themselves a Republican and another one probably varies according to specific issues. Man, that sounds like a nice mix. If I saw party id around 50-50, I would worry we had reached a stubborn deadlock.
LastRick on December 3, 2009 at 9:50 AM
I guess this means that all the polls that show Obama in the mid-40s are accurate. And he ain’t gonna be helped by Afghanistan. Any goodwill he’s earned with conservatives will be more than nullified by Obamacare being rammed through(not to mention double-digit unemployment, porkulus, crap-and-betrayed, KSM in NYC, well you get the point).
Doughboy on December 3, 2009 at 9:50 AM
and I should probably mention that some of those friends are people of color
I asked are you really hating on me in your head? at one point cuz I was floored by the venom that came out when they were calling BIg Dawg racist
I was told some people never learn and to ignore the racebaiting
but it really really bothered me for about a month, then I got pixxed and now it is just a pathetic joke
ginaswo on December 3, 2009 at 9:50 AM
Ask Kenneth.
highhopes on December 3, 2009 at 9:50 AM
Oh, they know it. The November TV ratings are out. It’s devastating news for MSN and CNN, in particular.
Whereas conservative shows are up slightly in viewership, liberal shows have dropped off between 60 and 70%.
It’s quite obvious that this trend is more than simply reflecting a drop-off in interest after the election.
AnninCA on December 3, 2009 at 9:51 AM
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. We hope you’ll one day recognize the futility of voting more money out of someone else’s pocket to pay for folks who don’t really feel like working for that money. Just remember that your affiliation and associations with folks who ruin most everything they touch is a primary reason the country can’t get back on track.
Meanwhile, we’ll all pray you wake up and come back to the American people’s best interests someday. We still love you even when you are wrong.
Subsunk
Subsunk on December 3, 2009 at 9:51 AM
LOL* Good point, on a national level. I was actually thinking about local politics more.
AnninCA on December 3, 2009 at 9:52 AM
lastrick
ahh see but I would say I was a DEM but I am voting GOP now
if they didnt ask me quesiton 2 but asked do you plan to vote and I will say most definitely
then they are thinking a lot fo those DEMs are voting for them but newsflash they are voting against them
I dont think we necessarily have anything to vote FOR sadly on the leadserhip angle I agree
but why put someone out there for the Dem to make a target out of anyway?
just let the people vote against the incumbents
GOP will still win massively in that scenario
ginaswo on December 3, 2009 at 9:52 AM
You know in the military you only get six months to blame problems on your predecessor.
Johnnyreb on December 3, 2009 at 9:52 AM
“This is great news for President Opantload, it shows he is making the tough decisions with resolute steadfastness and an unbending willingness to lead.”
-BleedsBlue
Bishop on December 3, 2009 at 9:53 AM
subsunk
silly I am not giving them any money!!
UI mean it is ahrder for THEM to figure out if I should be on the enemy list since I am still listed as a Dem and they ASK me for money
in fact I sent many lovely DNC things back to them postage prepaid with heavy pennies spelling out NO WAY and such, lol
but thanks for the kind thoughts
If I could get back the 50 I gave Kerry I would be ecstatic
I amxed out to HRC and would do it again, we would be in far far far far better shape had she won
ginaswo on December 3, 2009 at 9:54 AM
Don’t about that. I keep watching her thrashing about as SoS and remember her obsession with national health care,…Neither the donks or the pubbies had much from which to choose, as it turned out.
a capella on December 3, 2009 at 10:15 AM
Whadya expect from Amerikkka?
Akzed on December 3, 2009 at 10:23 AM
So if we know that the electorate is 36/33/31, D/R/I and we get some MSM poll with a sampling of 40/30/30, is there any way to “un-climate-science” the results?
motionview on December 3, 2009 at 10:25 AM
I remember the Republican revolution and the Contract With America, and all the celebration of the demise of the Democrat party too.
How’d that work out for us?
Seems what goes around comes around in politics as well.
donh525 on December 3, 2009 at 10:30 AM
I would think you can un-weight the results to get back to the raw data, then bias it with the correct party identification.
LastRick on December 3, 2009 at 10:33 AM
They did not learn “Mike’s Trick”. This is just data. This is not data-data.
antisocial on December 3, 2009 at 10:35 AM
This trend has been ongoing for quite some time. Do the liberal media take notice? Is money the bottom line?
Evidently not. They just keep losing viewers and plodding along.
donh525 on December 3, 2009 at 10:44 AM
LOL
RushBaby on December 3, 2009 at 10:48 AM
That would be true for party line questions, but I don’t think it is true generally. For example, I could see ABC News – WaPo asking: After chaining their pregnant, barefoot women-folk to the stove, white males enjoy roasting endangered species over a nuclear fire. Are all Republicans inherently evil?
You know how D & R would respond, but what about the Independents?
motionview on December 3, 2009 at 10:51 AM
You folks are soooooo silly.
Markos Moulitsas has the real numbers.
Rovin on December 3, 2009 at 10:51 AM
The Patriot’s Companion Pair: one for defending the Constitution, and the other to read the interlopers their [Last] Rights.
Yoop on December 3, 2009 at 10:52 AM
The donks need at least a spread of +8 points or they go down in flames.
jukin on December 3, 2009 at 11:03 AM
So all those lamestream media polls which use 20 percent of respondents as republicans are full of crap.
eaglewingz08 on December 3, 2009 at 11:06 AM
Wisdom is a powerful food for thought
hawkman on December 3, 2009 at 11:27 AM
Here’s a question that keeps troubling me:
With the MSM rating soooo low? Who in their right mind keeps advertising on their shows. Are the rates so cheap that’s it’s a NO-Brain-er to advertise on them.
If it was me in charge of advertising for my company I would look at the viewing stats and say ” Screw the low raters, I dumping my money in the high raters.
Interesting side note: I read/heard some where that more Democrats have been hurt bu the employment down turn that anyone else.
BruceB on December 3, 2009 at 11:42 AM
2010 and 2012 will be good for conservatives but will it be enough to turn this country back on course.
I find myself wondering if it will be too little, too late.
Yakko77 on December 3, 2009 at 11:46 AM
Unemployment always hits the unskilled and uneducated hardest so, yes, Democrats are more likely to lose their jobs in an economic downturn.
One of the most fascinating things the filthy lying coward in the White House has not said is that unemployment among black males is somewhere around 34%. He could have looked like a rock star if he took on something like this instead of bogus stimulus packages and attempting to seize one sixth of the economy.
highhopes on December 3, 2009 at 12:05 PM
In a nutshell.
D = X * (36/40)
R = Y * (33/30)
I = Z * (31/30)
new result = (D + R + I)/3
With X, Y, and Z being the sub scores for the D, R, and I’s. If the sub-scores aren’t broken out, then there is nothing you can do.
MarkTheGreat on December 3, 2009 at 12:15 PM
The Democrats are wearing out their welcome. That is for sure.
Terrye on December 3, 2009 at 1:48 PM
With one party in power we’ll at least get Vaseline…with the other, just good old fashioned rough trade. Either way, we’ll still be…ed.
Dr. ZhivBlago on December 3, 2009 at 4:28 PM