Confirmed: Dobbs could tip election to Obama in a three-way race

posted at 4:45 pm on November 25, 2009 by Allahpundit

Not a huge deal since, according to his spokesman, he’s more inclined to challenge Menendez for New Jersey’s Senate seat in 2012 than run for prez, but it’s still worth flagging given the running debate we’ve been having about third parties. Just think of me as Groundskeeper Willie. I warned ye. Didn’t I warn ye?

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that if the choice is between President Obama, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Dobbs, Obama leads 42% to 34% with Dobbs pulling 14% of the vote.

With Mike Huckabee as the Republican nominee, Obama leads 42% to 36%, with Dobbs at 12%.

If Sarah Palin is the GOP nominee, it’s Obama 44%, Palin 37% and Dobbs 12%…

With Dobbs out of the equation, Obama and Romney are tied at 44%, Obama leads Huckabee 45% to 41%, and the president leads Palin 46% to 43%.

Dobbs doesn’t hurt Huckabee much — Obama’s lead grows by only two points with him in the race — but he takes a bite from Palin and kills Romney, reducing him from dead even to an also-ran. Which makes sense: Dobbs is likely to draw blue-collar voters and conservatives who are disaffected with the GOP’s squishiness, leaving a white-collar centrist type like Mitt heavily exposed. Beyond the Dobbs factor, though, what’s fascinating is that even though Romney’s favorables are +11 and Huckabee’s a whopping +28(!), Palin does almost as well as the former and actually better than the latter head to head with Obama in a two-man race — despite her net favorables standing at -3. I’m not sure how to explain that except to read the entire survey as a referendum on The One, with any big-name Republican currently well positioned to pull 40 percent simply for being Not Obama. (It’d be interesting to see how, say, Giuliani fares in a hypothetical match-up.)

Speaking of squishiness, what happens to the Dobbs-heads when they hear about this?

In a little-noticed interview Friday, Mr. Dobbs told Spanish-language network Telemundo he now supports a plan to legalize millions of undocumented workers, a stance he long lambasted as an unfair “amnesty.”

“Whatever you have thought of me in the past, I can tell you right now that I am one of your greatest friends and I mean for us to work together,” he said in a live interview with Telemundo’s Maria Celeste. “I hope that will begin with Maria and me and Telemundo and other media organizations and others in this national debate that we should turn into a solution rather than a continuing debate and factional contest.”

Mr. Dobbs twice mentioned a possible legalization plan for the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in the U.S., saying at one point that “we need the ability to legalize illegal immigrants under certain conditions.”

“Under certain conditions” can mean a lot of things, but like Mark Krikorian says, the specifics won’t save him now: “The amusing thing is that his ‘growth’ isn’t going to help him in any case — the open-borders crowd won’t believe him and immigration hawks will dismiss him as just another McCain-style phony maverick.” True enough, and doubly true if he follows through and runs against, of all people, a Hispanic senator. Just imagine Menendez’s attack ads against him; he wouldn’t have to venture outside of Media Matters’s clip vault to gather enough material for the entire campaign. Exit question: Isn’t one of the problems with a Dobbs candidacy the fact that Dobbs isn’t even the best known right-leaning independent cable news host? O’Reilly or Beck running for president would create much more heat. Instead, we’re going to elect a guy who couldn’t even beat Shep Smith in the ratings? C’mon.

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This poll has two lessons: Don’t count any Republican out of the running; and don’t support third parties unless they’re liberal.

Loxodonta on November 25, 2009 at 7:17 PM

Speaking of squishiness, what happens to the Dobbs-heads when they hear about this?

Duh…how the puck is Dobbs going to run for President with his new pro-amnesty position? A pro-amnesty Dobbs is just…O’Baama.

Jaibones on November 25, 2009 at 7:22 PM

Look, I realize that since Obama go elected, the thought of an actual minimum standard has been thrown out the window, but give me a break with this Lou Dobbs.

This guy has never held elective office, and has no serious management experience, if any.

This guy had less than a million viewers on his TV show. The ‘Cuda has more people following her on Facebook. (and she has a whole lot more influence from there than Dobbs did from CNN!)

I’m looking all over Rasmussen’s site, and have yet to see who they polled. They are generally pretty good, but they also are good about posting their methodology.

It’s interesting that the last Rasmussen poll, using likely voters, Sarah had strong favorables, over 50 percent.

I just can’t take a Dobbs run seriously. Even as a vanity deal, he just isn’t someone who has the ability to be President.

I guess it’s fun to speculate though. Gives us another chance to point out how great Teh Sarahcuda is and how much RomneyCare and Elmer Gantry Huckabee suck!

gary4205 on November 25, 2009 at 7:36 PM

Wait a minute, wasn’t it just a couple of months ago that Palin was something like 30 points behind Obama, Romney, Huckabee, Ron Paul, Stalin, Hitler and Idi Amin? Wow, there’s been a seismic shift…that’s the big story to me.

ddrintn on November 25, 2009 at 7:11 PM

And all she had to do was show up!

Wait until she actually puts some effort into it!

gary4205 on November 25, 2009 at 7:41 PM

46-43 Obama/Palin. This is with unemployment at 10.2%. Wait until it’s 12.05 next year and you’ll see that turn into 50/40 for the ‘cuda.

angryed on November 25, 2009 at 8:40 PM

12.0% that is

angryed on November 25, 2009 at 8:40 PM

But,but,but…George Stephanopolus said only 27% of Americans think Sarah’s qualified. George Will said book sales is not politics. David Brooks said she’s a joke. All women hate her too, I heard. Speaking of book sales, check out Amazon’s ranking on George Will’s book that was released on the same day as Sarah’s.

takeamericabackin10 on November 25, 2009 at 9:03 PM


Get outta here.

mojo on November 25, 2009 at 9:11 PM

Lets wait a year or so before trying to analyze an election that is going to be held in 2012.

JeffinSac on November 25, 2009 at 10:06 PM

Has Dobbs said that he is a Republican? If not, what is he? If he is a republican, then let us wait a couple years for the primaries.

Oh, and don’t give me the excuse of the 3rd party possibilities. Right now the likelihood of 3rd party is zero. If you try to sight the NY23 election as an example of 3rd party politics, I’d shouldn’t have to remind you of the NY23 primaries. There were none.

Your working too many hours Allahpundit. It’s affecting you and you know it. Too many non-starter postings. Does the issue of Dobbs merit a main page post? Not IHMO. It’s 2009 for God’s sake and Dobbs just quit his job. Who in the conservative blogospere would even consider this as a possible scenario for the 2012 election other than an exhausted and apparently incapacitated person. This what happens to all of us when we work more than seventy hours a week, every week. You show all the signs of a burnout. You’ve had sporadic incidents of brilliance at times but mostly the rest of the time you’re fixated on certain issues or people. You are just going through the motions now, repetative and boring. Maybe it time for a change, huh?

You’ve lost

Americannodash on November 26, 2009 at 12:16 AM

P.S. > I’m burned out too. Too many mispelled words & incorrect words used in my previous post. “You’ve lost” was an incomplete thought & [sight s/b cite]. I’ll be trying to get some much needed rest tomorrow. I hope you get some as well.

Americannodash on November 26, 2009 at 12:46 AM

Dobbs is not now and never was a conservative. He always was a normal moderate two-faced Dem.

Friendly21 on November 26, 2009 at 7:19 AM

Dobbs is in way over his head. Sounds just like a lefty in disguise.

mixplix on November 26, 2009 at 7:38 AM

Discount ANYONE who clamors for a third party, including Beck. We’ve been there, done that and it ain’t pretty.

Perot gave us BJ Clinton.

Conservatives only need run in the republican party in 2010, send those tools a message.

dthorny on November 26, 2009 at 8:02 AM

Dobbs more than once on his radio show has said he is a centrist. He tells callers “Don’t put me in the same category as Limbaugh or Hannity. No way.” Heaing that and the derisive way he said it I said to myself Forget this guy, he’s not who I thought he was.

Completely reversing his previous signature position of opposing amnesty for illegal aliens is a moral collapse that nails his political coffin shut.

Yephora on November 26, 2009 at 11:01 AM