Bush strategist: Don’t write off Sarah Palin for 2012
posted at 2:20 pm on November 24, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
While Maureen Dowd indulges herself in bashing Sarah Palin, Matthew Dowd (no relation) says that predictions of her political demise are highly premature. George W. Bush’s strategist was a Palin skeptic during the campaign, but says the media have been too quick to write her off for the next presidential cycle. In today’s Washington Post, Dowd lays out how Palin can win the nomination — and possibly the White House:
First, Gallup polls over the past 60 years show that no president with an approval rating under 47 percent has won reelection, and no president with an approval rating above 51 percent has lost reelection. (George W. Bush’s approval rating in the weeks before the 2004 election hovered around 50 percent.) The 2012 election will be primarily about our current president and whether voters are satisfied with the country’s direction.
Who the Republican candidate is, and his or her qualifications and abilities, will matter only if Obama’s approval rating is between 47 and 51 percent going into the fall of 2012. Interestingly, in the latest Gallup poll Obama’s approval rating was at a precarious 49 percent.
Second, America is still (unfortunately) politically divided and polarized, and Palin benefits from this dynamic. While Democrats love Obama, Republicans look on him with real disfavor. The gap between Obama’s approval rating among Democrats and among Republicans is nearly 70 percentage points — a higher partisan divide than either Bill Clinton or George W. Bush experienced. Obama’s agenda and actions this year, and some mistakes, have solidified this divide.
Polls show that Palin’s favorability numbers are a mirror image of those of Obama. She is respected and loved by the Republican base, while Democrats despise her. Granted, independent voters have significant reservations about her capability to be president, and this would be a hurdle in the general election. But to win the Republican nomination, Palin needs only to get enough support from the base to win early key states. Already, in nearly every poll today, she has a level of support that makes her a viable primary candidate. Just look at the crowds and the buzz her book tour is drawing.
What makes this more interesting is that Dowd says he would likely oppose Palin in the primaries, but doesn’t get hysterical about her. Instead, Dowd lays out a fairly compelling case that the Republican nominee may be more or less irrelevant in 2012. What will be relevant is Barack Obama. If his approval ratings continue to slide, he won’t get re-elected anyway. If they improve by 2012, he’s unlikely to lose a national election. When a President stands for re-election, the voters either approve the first term or end the Presidency.
But Dowd and others miss the point a bit, too. The 2012 elections are still three years away, and even the heavy lifting for the nomination won’t begin for at least 14 months. The key is the midterm elections and how the 2012 hopefuls play in the field. How will Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Palin, Tim Pawlenty, and others work to get Republicans elected to Congress? Who will they endorse, who will they avoid, and which districts will they work? After the election, we will have plenty of data on reach, depth, and the rest.
In fact, it would be a good idea for Republicans to stop getting distracted by 2012 altogether. But at least we can follow Matthew Dowd’s lead and keep all options open for the meantime. We also need to keep focused on the referendum quality of both the 2010 and 2012 elections, because that is what will ultimately drive success or failure.









Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: « Previous 1 2 3 4
I know.
darwin on November 24, 2009 at 6:41 PM
**voxpopuli **
You have a tremendous amount of patience.
mistythestripper on November 24, 2009 at 6:52 PM
Let’s put the quitter meme to bed with a letter from a guy named Dewey Whetsell. Dewey is an Alaskan writer, poet and also a commercial fisherman. He is a real person, he has a website. He also wrote this letter regarding Sarah Palin:
I lived in AK for 6 years, and I know a few people, so I set about to verify that this letter was real and the author was real before I posted it.
Now those who favor the quitter meme, step up to the plate and tell me what 0bozo has accomplished…..that benefitted someone besides his ideology.
koz on November 24, 2009 at 6:53 PM
Now where did I put that ‘Do not feed the Trolls” sign………
t on November 24, 2009 at 6:58 PM
Nice … thanks
darwin on November 24, 2009 at 7:02 PM
Dumb quitting quitter.
Brian1972 on November 24, 2009 at 7:12 PM
It’s not jealousy. You asked if intelligence and common sense are mutually exclusive, and I gave you an example.
ddrintn on November 24, 2009 at 7:29 PM
It’s probably less patience than anti-Palin zealotry. You’ve got to love those people who rant and rave about the drooling Palinistas but then spend 3 or 4 pages of comments telling us what a quitter Palin is.
ddrintn on November 24, 2009 at 7:34 PM
Somedays I don’t think she is in too the “title” and other days I think she’s gotta run.
Actually 2010 should not be our focus right now.
In this order they s/b:
defeat Obamacare
defeat Amnesty
etc…..
Let’s show he’s just as big a dud domestically as he is internationally.
PappyD61 on November 24, 2009 at 7:43 PM
Patience has nothing to with it!
Partisan evil would be closer to the truth.
All poxpopuli did was to post the same contentious snark over and over.
Those of us who bothered to set him straight over and over are the ones with patience!
koz, excellent! Thank you!
Jenfidel on November 24, 2009 at 7:44 PM
Experience in what? Be specific.
jimmy2shoes on November 24, 2009 at 7:54 PM
This is actually the most admirable thing about her to me. She’s willing to tell those who would box her into a situation that would marginalize and hamstring her to take a hike. When the rules of engagement are rigged, she changes the rules. Call her a quitter if you will, she’s been called worse; but, don’t underestimate her. She’s got Obama’s number, and the call will probably come at 3:00 am.
jimmy2shoes on November 24, 2009 at 8:05 PM
**All poxpopuli did was to post the same contentious snark over and over.
Those of us who bothered to set him straight over and over are the ones with patience!
Jenfidel on November 24, 2009 at 7:44 PM**
Sorry, but I don’t consider name calling and personal attacks to be “setting someone straight.”
mistythestripper on November 24, 2009 at 8:10 PM
Personally, I think what Sarah Palin did was sacrificial… The possibility exists that she threw away her political career (meaning she may never be elected to office again) for the benefit of the state of Alaska. And she has been vindicated… the new Governor (her Lt.) is carrying on with Sarah’s policies and he now has an 80% + approval rating. Alaska got their functioning government back, and the policies that Sarah championed still exist.
Personally, I wish more politicians would care more about their constituents than themselves. That’s why I was able to get past her resignation (after a day or two). She made the right decisions for the people of Alaska, and in the end, that’s all you can really ask for.
BPD on November 24, 2009 at 8:15 PM
**You’ve got to love those people who rant and rave about the drooling Palinistas but then spend 3 or 4 pages of comments telling us what a quitter Palin is.
ddrintn on November 24, 2009 at 7:34 PM
**
Second only to the self appointed arbitrators of true conservatism who spend 3 or 4 pages explaining how an elected official who quit two years into office isn’t really a quitter.
mistythestripper on November 24, 2009 at 8:15 PM
Second only to the self appointed arbitrators of true conservatism who spend 3 or 4 pages explaining how an elected official who quit two years into office isn’t really a quitter.
mistythestripper on November 24, 2009 at 8:15 PM
Did you spend the time to read the reason that she resigned the governorship? Or the incessant condescending snarkiness by the self-proclaimed “voice of the People” that torqued everybody off around here? Or do you even care?
kingsjester on November 24, 2009 at 8:27 PM
S
What does our Conservatism have to do with Governor Palin having to resign due to being persecuted in office by her Liberal political enemies?
Answer: Nothing.
So much for that, Ms. Snark.
You and poxpopuli need to get a room!
Jenfidel on November 24, 2009 at 8:55 PM
Sorry, but I presented quite a bit of cogent argument and indulged in very little name-calling, but sometimes you have to call snark for what it is.
Jenfidel on November 24, 2009 at 8:58 PM
If I was facing fraudulent ethics complaint after fraudulent ethics complaint that was threatening to zero my savings account I’d have done one of two things. One is kill the Mofo and the other is resign the office and let Sean Parnell continue what I started.
Holger on November 24, 2009 at 8:59 PM
Then maybe the republicans should not try too hard to take back congress in 2010. Let barry and the fascist retards schumer, reid, pelosi and frank push ridiculous destructive bills at the American people. The blue dogs will at some point even stop negotiating with the white house and their own leadership. If the republicans take over congress and stop the insanity and things start to stabilize, barry will benefit. If you don’t think so ask bill clinton. The republican victories in 1994 won him a second term. The democrats still credit him for the welfare reform bill he vetoed twice.
peacenprosperity on November 24, 2009 at 9:08 PM
Second only to nothing. The anti-Palinistas who are purportedly on the right are as rabid as the anti-Palin types on the left. No difference.
ddrintn on November 24, 2009 at 10:35 PM
**So much for that, Ms. Snark.
You and poxpopuli need to get a room!
Jenfidel on November 24, 2009 at 8:55 PM
Sorry, but I presented quite a bit of cogent argument and indulged in very little name-calling
Jenfidel on November 24, 2009 at 8:58 PM
**
Jen maybe you can spend a little time in thought over these two conflicting statements.
mistythestripper on November 25, 2009 at 2:35 AM
mistythestripper on November 25, 2009 at 2:35 AM
And, maybe someday you’ll adress my questions to you, instead of just sniping.
kingsjester on November 25, 2009 at 10:22 AM
Thanks for pointing out the difference between the Dowds. I did, indeed, glance and thought this was a Maureen column. Couldn’t understand the change in writing tone. *haha
AnninCA on November 25, 2009 at 10:49 AM
My statements aren’t conflicting. Yours are.
I don’t have to think again about what I said, because my posts are always thoughtful.
You, on the other hand, brought nothing to your side of the argument except lying snark and empty praise for the thread troll.
Jenfidel on November 25, 2009 at 10:53 AM
Dow has a good analysis but he leaves out the trust factor and the unique economy.
This is not a typical recession, it approaches and may yet become a full depression. I doubt Obama can turn around the job losses. This makes the populace more inclined for desperate measure
Meanwhile the GOP did a royal number on its base and is still running against the base evaporating trust
The public is positioned to look for someone they do not yet distrust. Palin has the best references so far: both parties hate her
Palin also has been an oil driller from day one. This will get bigger and bigger as our dollar disintegrates from debt.
If the fed ever raises interest head for cover. The public will crash financially and Palin, the outsider, becomes the White Knight
If we melt down, insiders are dead ducks
entagor on November 25, 2009 at 12:28 PM
My God, are you ever dense! That was happening and guess what? She was being sued over that! Are you completely incapable of doing any research on your own?
Fed45 on November 25, 2009 at 12:51 PM
I’m thinking vox is misty in drag and it’s got it’s pasties in a knot.
OkieDoc on November 25, 2009 at 1:39 PM
I can’t think of a better revenge against liberals than to force-feed them with the person they loathe the most. Obama has been the toughest medicine imaginable to us and we should return the favor. Go Sarah ’12!
TonyR on November 25, 2009 at 6:26 PM
McCain got entertainment value from the persecution of Palin’s family, until public opinion PROVED the silent majority in America like Sarah and disdain the public abuse she’s been forced to endure. Too little, too late, fickle friend McCain grabs Palin’s apron strings to assume he is her supporter, having already dished out the most vindictive sexism against her from GOP “headquarters”. Pickle fickle friends.
/Did daddy tell Meghan to STFU? Or has Allahpundit decided to quit posting every stupid thing Meghan McCain says about conservative women. Thanksgiving: We are grateful not to be distracted by the likes of the liberated Rinette.
maverick muse on November 25, 2009 at 6:30 PM
I wholeheartedly agree! There’s not an Obama supporter I know who wouldn’t LOVE to see QuitterCuda at the top of the GOP ticket in 2012! In fact, let’s make it Palin/Bachmann! Pleeeeeze? The DNC campaign ads practically write themselves!
Don’t you get it? The Democrats are afraid of Palin the way Bre’r Rabbit was afraid of being thrown into the briar patch! Palin in 2012 guarantees an Obama second term.
Hey, I know I’ve given away the “secret plan” but considering the audience, I don’t think I have much to worry about.
chumpThreads on November 25, 2009 at 8:51 PM
Yo mama.
OkieDoc on November 25, 2009 at 9:38 PM
Ed, I disagree
.
2010 is just the warm-up show. We need to focus like a laser-beam on the real goal: Getting rid of Obambi is JOB #1.
.
I contend we need to have a viable and compelling candidate that runs against him for 2 full years. This candidate needs to be the heir-apparent even as the midterms are taking place. We simply cannot abide another weak candidate like McCain. In this cycle I think delaying the candidate selection process will be the kiss of death.
.
It may not be Palin, but whoever it is will need to jump in sooner rather than later and make their mark. Yes, now I’m agreeing with you.
Metanis on November 25, 2009 at 10:07 PM
After seeing her on Hannity last night she’s the only one making any damn sense these days. Her guessing we’ll have socialized energy under Obama was interesting.
johnnyU on November 26, 2009 at 10:04 AM
Comment pages: « Previous 1 2 3 4