3rd quarter GDP 2.8%, not 3.5%
posted at 12:55 pm on November 24, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
The Commerce Department revised its third-quarter economy estimation sharply downward today, from the previously announced 3.5% annualized growth to 2.8% instead. That number would still be the best quarter in almost two years, but as the AP notes, it’s almost entirely comprised of short-term government stimulus:
The economy grew at a 2.8 percent pace last quarter, as the recovery got off to a slower start than first thought.
The Commerce Department’s new reading on gross domestic product wasn’t as energetic as the 3.5 percent growth rate for the July-September period estimated just a month ago.
The main factors behind the downgrade: consumers didn’t spend as much, commercial construction was weaker and the nation’s trade deficit was more of a drag on growth. Businesses also trimmed more of their stockpiles, another restraining factor.
The new reading on GDP, which measures the value of all goods and services produced in the United States — from machinery to manicures — was a tad weaker than the 2.9 percent growth rate economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected.
Jim Geraghty points out one big set of numbers that changed:
The revised numbers out today indicate that automotive consumption was less than half initially estimated, contributing 0.81 of percentage point to growth. The overall quarterly growth number was revised from 3.5 percent to 2.8 percent.
The White House had pointed to the original number of 1.7% as an indicator of the success of Cash for Clunkers. Now it looks as though they overestimated that number as well, which auto analyst Edmunds.com had stated. For speaking a little truth to power, the Obama administration went to war with Edmunds, a war they lost in the first exchange and have completely lost today.
Meanwhile, the AP does its best to spin the news as much as it possibly can:
Even with the downward revisions, it was notable that such spending grew, after falling in the previous quarter.
But they do manage to ask the correct question, albeit halfway through their article:
What’s not clear is whether the recovery can continue after government supports are gone.
Answer: no, at least not in isolation. In order to get a true recovery, which depends on consumer confidence and spending, the US needs to get the job-creation engine going. That won’t happen while the Obama administration and the Democrats send signals of massive tax increases and energy cost hikes with their expansionist, statist agenda. Investors will stay on the sidelines and shelter their money for the monsoon season of rainy days they see when Obama has to start paying for all of his ambitious programs.
It’s not “notable” that a couple of short-term stimulus programs spiked consumption in two narrow — but politically visible — categories. In fact, a more cynical person would conclude that Obama wanted one good report on GDP in order to push his complete agenda through Congress without people questioning its cost. Unfortunately, the timing failed, and even the artificial spike wasn’t nearly as high as Obama and his team initially claimed. What will be “notable” is what happens when the artificial stimuli disappear and jobs don’t reappear.
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Like sands through the hourglass . . .
So are the threads of Hot Air.
This is Loxodonata . . .
And these are the threads of Hot Air.
Loxodonta on November 24, 2009 at 5:30 PM
There is not enough whiskey in Tennessee to drown out where this thread has gone.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 5:30 PM
Of course! What’s your freak? Me and my g/f are into girl-on- girl.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 5:31 PM
thats the truth…very strange….
right4life on November 24, 2009 at 5:31 PM
I thought you were from Texas?
DarkCurrent on November 24, 2009 at 5:33 PM
Anyway–Obowma lied about the numbers. Any libs want to challenge that?
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 5:34 PM
Yeah~but whiskey comes from Tennessee, Sugar.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 5:34 PM
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 5:31 PM
My bad, the last Liam that I knew was of the male persuasion.
MarkTheGreat on November 24, 2009 at 5:34 PM
Sugar!!! oh no, here we go again.
MarkTheGreat on November 24, 2009 at 5:35 PM
The Angelina Jolie thread is next door, hotpants.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 5:35 PM
But not enough to have killed it yet.
What this thread really needs is Allahpundit.
If he were here, all talk of sex would shrink away.
Loxodonta on November 24, 2009 at 5:35 PM
Ain’t that the truth, Lox.
One shot of Allah, even Blatant Blue would deflate.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 5:37 PM
Nice try to attack.
Meet me in personal combat and we’ll put your insulting words to the test.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 5:38 PM
She couldn’t turn on a water faucet with both hands.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 5:39 PM
‘Meet me in personal combat’? LOL
AsianGirl took you down LOL AGAIN
DarkCurrent on November 24, 2009 at 5:39 PM
get some professional help. and go away.
right4life on November 24, 2009 at 5:40 PM
But how could you tell?
Loxodonta on November 24, 2009 at 5:41 PM
Your lat post is so interesting. Here, I thought I was among conservatives, patriots. But you mock me.
Okay, that’s fine.
I’m discovering by your posts, the same way libs are vermin, that you’re much like them.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 5:42 PM
I’m on right4life’s side this time, for a change.
Seek treatment Liam.
DarkCurrent on November 24, 2009 at 5:43 PM
Cute you could say that, when I’m a con like you.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 5:43 PM
LMAO!
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 5:45 PM
your comments show a very disturbed person. hope you find the help you need….
right4life on November 24, 2009 at 5:46 PM
Liam, friend. You make an unpleasant mockery of yourself.
Take right4′s advice.
DarkCurrent on November 24, 2009 at 5:46 PM
An even better one might be “have you ever heard of this wonderful thing called Google?”
If I must…
http://www.servsafe.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ServSafe
Dark-Star on November 24, 2009 at 5:47 PM
How?
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 5:47 PM
This is an intervention. Seek help before it’s too late.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 5:49 PM
So, being conservative is a mental illness?
Maybe I misunderstood posts, but I can apologise for that and fix my mistakes.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 5:52 PM
I’m shocked…but we haven’t had a good thread to argue about lately…AP is slipping!! ;-)
right4life on November 24, 2009 at 5:52 PM
leave bb alone!
he serves a porpoise!
Loxodonta on November 24, 2009 at 5:53 PM
Nope.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 5:54 PM
Yep. And bid’ness is good!!
ladyingray on November 24, 2009 at 5:55 PM
Yes Ma’am.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 5:56 PM
That’s more about you than of me.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 5:56 PM
Bats!
DarkCurrent on November 24, 2009 at 5:56 PM
On today’s menu, we have:
A hick of sarah
A huck of thumper
A mitt of rino
And a side of glenn beck
What would you care for, sir?
Loxodonta on November 24, 2009 at 5:57 PM
What is your malfunction, besides being the great liberal saver
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 5:58 PM
An extra helping of Glenn, please!
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 5:59 PM
Will that be one coffin or two?
Loxodonta on November 24, 2009 at 6:00 PM
I agree…BECK IS MY GURU
he’s a bit too optimistic though…I’m afraid…
right4life on November 24, 2009 at 6:01 PM
Two, one for each party.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 6:02 PM
So, THAT’S your problem: Me caring about AnninCA.
You condemn me for leaving room for a lib who’s coming to out side, and not on my Conservative values that I share with you.
Condemn me all you want.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 6:02 PM
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 6:02 PM
Heh
ladyingray on November 24, 2009 at 6:03 PM
BTW, there’s a new thread about the Navy Seals~show your support for our guys!
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 6:03 PM
You bore me.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 6:03 PM
Funny–I thought we were on the same side of the political aisle.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 6:06 PM
I am not condemning you. I’m trying to help you.
However, you seem determined to go your own way.
I hope you don’t get hurt, but I believe that will happen. If I am available when that happens, I will help as best I can then. And if you want me to leave you alone, I shall do so.
Loxodonta on November 24, 2009 at 6:10 PM
Liam, I’m really sorry about what I said before.
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 6:11 PM
It’s impossible to hurt me.
In any case, what is all this about? Me telling of Ann coming to our side, and people here rejecting it? Or my short battle with the asian girl, and we came to mutual acceptance and got on better after it?
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 6:13 PM
I have my doubts that Ann is coming to “our” side, but I will enjoy watching you try.
Take care not to crash and burn.
ladyingray on November 24, 2009 at 6:14 PM
No. I’m a liberal. Flaming liberal.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 6:15 PM
You and I are okay, I promise. That’s over, done, and no longer rates. We’re on the same side, and I got your back best I can.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 6:15 PM
You boast about that the same way someone would brag about cancer.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 6:16 PM
That’s not very nice. People can’t help having cancer.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 6:18 PM
I’ve seen an evolution there. If I was uncertain, I would say so. Not everything is perfect, but I like what I see so far.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 6:18 PM
But they can help being liberals. Sadder for you who are.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 6:19 PM
Why is it wrong for someone to “judge” you and call you a lib, but it’s okay that you accuse others of being a lib because they disagree with you? And now, you compare being a lib with someone with cancer?
Very telling…
ladyingray on November 24, 2009 at 6:20 PM
And your final determination?
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 6:22 PM
You’re a bully.
ladyingray on November 24, 2009 at 6:24 PM
And the hits just keep on coming….
Yakko77 on November 24, 2009 at 6:27 PM
Actually, no. I’ve respected AnninCA and been torn to shreds for it, by you conservatives.
Yes, I revile libs and never hide that feeling.
When I’ve been wrong, I have made apologies to cons and libs, too. I never made excuses–when I was shown to be wrong I apologized right away and owned up. No equivocation.
I stand to what I believe, and that’s just how I am. Take me as I come for I can’t stay long. Or, for you, take up a petition and get me banned.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 6:29 PM
I stand by what I believe, too. A petition won’t be necessary, though, I have a feeling you will take care of that yourself…eventually.
You really should watch that hair-trigger temper you have.
ladyingray on November 24, 2009 at 6:32 PM
You Lie
faraway on November 24, 2009 at 6:33 PM
I’m intolerant of libs, of that I make no excuses or apologies.
I’m better with conservatives. I’ve enjoyed many discussions about points of the Constitution, savoring intellectual debate on an issue. It’s been great, really. And we never had a fight, like others tend to engage.
Sad for me you and I no longer get along. I did enjoy reading your posts that are most often sensible.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 6:37 PM
We won. Get over it.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 6:43 PM
Ah, but, political victories are the most fleeting of all. They never last, do they?
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 6:45 PM
OK… Who here predicted that the 3.5% growth would be revised down just as the Bush GDP numbers during 2003-2005 had to be revised upward????
…. raises hand….
Come on, I know most of y’all thought that this would happen. Now raise those hands… Come on. You won’t be shot… yet…
phreshone on November 24, 2009 at 6:45 PM
We didn’t even have to STEAL the election. We have it all and soon, we will have gov’t run healthcare! Can’t wait.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 6:49 PM
Actually, theft of elections has always been shown on the Dem side. No matter.
Remember, the electorate is fickle.
Why, I wonder, are you a lib?
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 6:54 PM
Because the republican party is full of stuffy, rich, old white men. They don’t help anyone but themselves.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 6:58 PM
And the Dems are just a bunch of poor people? What was Ted worth when he died–$65 million or so?
What about rich clucker Byrd, the old Klan recruiter?
That old saw about Pubs being of rich white guys doesn’t hold up. The Dems are also full of rich old white men, too. Or is Al Gore just a street person who has enough wealth to not have to sleep on a grate on some NYC sidewalk?
Tell me–do you like being taxed to death for government programs? Which do you prefer: bringing home most of your money after a hard day’s work, or giving half of the sweat of your brow to government?
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 7:03 PM
I believe in paying my fair share. I don’t like that some of my money goes for killing innocent civilians, but I feel that we have to pay for fixing our roads, bridges, and helping out our fellow man.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 7:06 PM
But at a rate of 50%? Paying a fair share is fine, I don’t have a problem there.
And we’re not killing innocent civilians. More than any other nation, the USA goes to incredible pains to avoid civilian casualties. The Soviet never tried so much, yet so many libs ignore that truth.
Helping our fellow man, you say? That’s what charities are for–and those don’t include giving to a political party!
If you libs get out of the way, cut taxes, and stop being such busybodies, you and I will have more freedom. We’ll be able to donate to charities that actually FEED people. Giving to your Dem party, after government has raped you of what you worked for, is NOT charity.
You libs attack me all the time for being a Christian. But my church puts food on people’s tables.
When have you libs, your Dem party, come to a hungry woman’s house and set a table for her and her children on Christmas Day, a meal with all the fixings?
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 7:16 PM
And you STILL ignore my speaking of Kennedy, Byrd, and and others.
Typical lib: ignore criticisms of your own side that you can’t defend.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 7:20 PM
A portion of our taxes go to help those needy people that don’t have food to put on their table, through welfare, food stamps…..how can you say that the government doesn’t help people? All they have to do is apply for it.
If you make a lot of money, 50% isn’t a lot for you. No one needs millions and millions of dollars, Liam.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 7:23 PM
You shouldn’t speak unkindly of the dead and near dead, Liam.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 7:24 PM
You forget the hoops people need to jump through for that ‘benefit’. In NY, it’s a 45-day wait for people to get that.
I can say government is no help because 65 cents out of every dollar allocated to entitlements goes to the people running the show!
That’s right–$650,000 out of every million dollars goes to pay for the people in the office that doles out the money. That’s generosity?
And another thing: who are YOU to say how much money I’m allowed to make? No one needs millions and millions of dollars?
OK, fine. You don’t need two bathrooms in your house, either. Your wife doesn’t need a car of her own.
Your children don’t need new clothes until 2013, either.
See where I’m going?
If you can make a billion bucks a year, I’m fine with that. I want you to prosper. You’d like having that kind of buckage, wouldn’t you? But by your reasoning, you wouldn’t be allowed to have it.
I say you should have it, if you can make it happen. Really, would you like giving to DC $500 million YOU earned?
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 7:32 PM
Weak ploy. The dead don’t care, except when you libs fix elections so the dead invariably vote Democrat.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 7:33 PM
Liam. You can relax. I’m a conservative. Just pulling your chain, buddy.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 7:33 PM
I know. But I had to see how insane you’d get.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 7:38 PM
I couldn’t keep up the liberal meme. My brain began to hurt from the stupidity.
About Ann~not worth the effort. She’s coming along, but she’s just a kook.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 7:39 PM
I figured someone was bipolar.
CWforFreedom on November 24, 2009 at 7:40 PM
No, but being a liberal was rotting my brain.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 7:44 PM
It’s painful being a lib, isn’t it? I don’t know how real libs can live with themselves.
So, I had to make you suffer a bit, for fun. Forgive me?
As for Ann, I think she’s worth the time. I’ve seen her evolution, and it’s bad for our side to cast to the winds someone who is learning and wants to know more. The true libs, the trolls, are beyond saving. But Ann is worth the time.
If I can get others to back me, instead of attacking her, we can lead the way. Given her fervency for her views, she’ll be powerful on our side if she gets to it.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 7:45 PM
Ann has come a long way…she writes on her like it’s her own personal journal, she loves the clintons and is pro-choice, but she does her homework and has been able to actually contribute to the conversation.
She voted for McCain and likes Palin, so, she’s not so far off the reservation.
I leave her alone nowadays.
We have bigger fish to fry around here.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 7:49 PM
A portion of our taxes go to help those needy people that don’t have food to put on their table, through welfare, food stamps…..how can you say that the government doesn’t help people? All they have to do is apply for it.If you make a lot of money, 50% isn’t a lot for you. No one needs millions and millions of dollars, Liam.HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 7:23 PM WHAT!!! Did I just drop into another alternate universe ? Hornet say it\’s not so ..
huckelberry on November 24, 2009 at 7:50 PM
I was playing the role of a nasty, dirtbag liberal….I didn’t mean it.
I am a hardcore conservative. Honest.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 7:52 PM
Well true. But also more to bring to our way of thinking. We can fry the fish, but the more friends at the cookout, the happier the time.
I’m bringing the popcorn, too.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 7:53 PM
I thought I had logged on to Bizzaro Air
Les in NC on November 24, 2009 at 7:58 PM
Ah, but you did!
There is no escape!
You will be assimilated.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 7:59 PM
Honestly, other than not seeing eye to eye regarding Ann, I think we can get along.
Just remember, as long as you defend her, I will be there to challenge her.
ladyingray on November 24, 2009 at 8:01 PM
Liam. You can relax. I’m a conservative. Just pulling your chain, buddy.
HornetSting on November 24, 2009 at 7:33 PM
I thought I had logged on to Bizzaro Air
Les in NC on November 24, 2009 at 7:58 PM
Ditto..I staggered back from my screen like I’d been biatch slapped…..
huckelberry on November 24, 2009 at 8:01 PM
That’s fair. I defend her for a reason and, if you feel otherwise, that’s perfect, too.
I have no complaints here.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 8:03 PM
Actually, you’ve been absorbed. We control your TV set now, too. We control the vertical. We control the horizontal. We can blur all you see or sharpen it to crystal clarity.
We control your mind, too, for…
We are DEMOCRATS!
(stand by for commercial break)
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 8:07 PM
Actually, you’ve been absorbed. We control your TV set now, too. We control the vertical. We control the horizontal. We can blur all you see or sharpen it to crystal clarity.
We control your mind, too, for…
We are DEMOCRATS!
(stand by for commercial break)
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 8:07 PM
Like I said before, you bring good stuff to the party.. Except for popcorn to a fish fry.. Last time my personel electronic devices were controlled by something or someone other than me I killed them with a hammer. 21st century problem solved with a 17th century tool. Needless to say ,I wasn’t very popular with the wife and kids ..I felt much better though..Grogg not smart enough to figure it out , but strong enough to whack it to death..
huckelberry on November 24, 2009 at 8:44 PM
I wasn’t popular with my wife either. I understand she was popular in town, tho. I also hear she was into geography–people called her the lay of the land.
(I’m joking, mind you)
The popcorn comes after the fish fry, of course. But I don’t sing Kumbaya!
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 8:51 PM
Stupid question. It is my understanding that unemployed people aren’t counted any more once they run out of unemployment benefits. They just extended unemployment benefits for another 20 weeks. Many who have run out of the benefits will start getting them again. Won’t unemployment go up now because of the extension?
darwin-t on November 24, 2009 at 10:47 PM
The talking head “Democratic strategists” will stick with the 3.5% thank you very much.
Dr. ZhivBlago on November 24, 2009 at 11:15 PM
I do believe there will be the standard electronic blockade of this, how do you say, “news.” Reality is merely a crutch for you people isn’t it.
Mojave Mark on November 24, 2009 at 11:34 PM
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