3rd quarter GDP 2.8%, not 3.5%
posted at 12:55 pm on November 24, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
The Commerce Department revised its third-quarter economy estimation sharply downward today, from the previously announced 3.5% annualized growth to 2.8% instead. That number would still be the best quarter in almost two years, but as the AP notes, it’s almost entirely comprised of short-term government stimulus:
The economy grew at a 2.8 percent pace last quarter, as the recovery got off to a slower start than first thought.
The Commerce Department’s new reading on gross domestic product wasn’t as energetic as the 3.5 percent growth rate for the July-September period estimated just a month ago.
The main factors behind the downgrade: consumers didn’t spend as much, commercial construction was weaker and the nation’s trade deficit was more of a drag on growth. Businesses also trimmed more of their stockpiles, another restraining factor.
The new reading on GDP, which measures the value of all goods and services produced in the United States — from machinery to manicures — was a tad weaker than the 2.9 percent growth rate economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected.
Jim Geraghty points out one big set of numbers that changed:
The revised numbers out today indicate that automotive consumption was less than half initially estimated, contributing 0.81 of percentage point to growth. The overall quarterly growth number was revised from 3.5 percent to 2.8 percent.
The White House had pointed to the original number of 1.7% as an indicator of the success of Cash for Clunkers. Now it looks as though they overestimated that number as well, which auto analyst Edmunds.com had stated. For speaking a little truth to power, the Obama administration went to war with Edmunds, a war they lost in the first exchange and have completely lost today.
Meanwhile, the AP does its best to spin the news as much as it possibly can:
Even with the downward revisions, it was notable that such spending grew, after falling in the previous quarter.
But they do manage to ask the correct question, albeit halfway through their article:
What’s not clear is whether the recovery can continue after government supports are gone.
Answer: no, at least not in isolation. In order to get a true recovery, which depends on consumer confidence and spending, the US needs to get the job-creation engine going. That won’t happen while the Obama administration and the Democrats send signals of massive tax increases and energy cost hikes with their expansionist, statist agenda. Investors will stay on the sidelines and shelter their money for the monsoon season of rainy days they see when Obama has to start paying for all of his ambitious programs.
It’s not “notable” that a couple of short-term stimulus programs spiked consumption in two narrow — but politically visible — categories. In fact, a more cynical person would conclude that Obama wanted one good report on GDP in order to push his complete agenda through Congress without people questioning its cost. Unfortunately, the timing failed, and even the artificial spike wasn’t nearly as high as Obama and his team initially claimed. What will be “notable” is what happens when the artificial stimuli disappear and jobs don’t reappear.
Blowback
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Jesus; “The View” comes to Hot Air.
Cybergeezer on November 24, 2009 at 3:17 PM
Dark-Star on November 24, 2009 at 3:16 PM
Ann is back.
bloggless on November 24, 2009 at 3:19 PM
This place is crawling with trolls. Makes me want to shower.
bloggless on November 24, 2009 at 3:20 PM
Let me tell all of you, my fellow Patriots, why I think AnninCA is worth bringing into our fold.
(apologies, Ann, for speaking as if you’re invisible–I know you’re reading all this)
Unlike the Asian brat in tights, in her self-righteousness like other libs, I’m willing to give room. You people suck up the flotsam that simplesimon, bleedsblue, crr6, and just let them carry on with their endless abuses of us. Yeah–you all eat that up.
But when a lib is seeking to lean something of substance, all you you is attack. GREAT way to get a lib to see the dawn.
Many of you are hypocirttes, especially that asian brat in tights. That idiot called me a lib of all things, when my posts make all of me clear.
Gun me down all you want. You know what I am and I have never once made bones about it.
Tough nuggies for asian brat who shows hate for me though I’m on her political side.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 3:20 PM
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 2:50 PM
I don’t see that I need to forgive them, as they have done me no harm. There anger against me for disagreeing with them doesn’t bother me. If they wish to hold onto their anger that’s there problem not mine.
MarkTheGreat on November 24, 2009 at 3:22 PM
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 3:20 PM
crikkees, just when I thought we had managed to get past the anger and hurt feelings.
MarkTheGreat on November 24, 2009 at 3:24 PM
You’re a smart Man.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 3:25 PM
I’ve been attacked, with falsehoods. I rise against it.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 3:26 PM
That’s real class. /s
DarkCurrent on November 24, 2009 at 3:29 PM
If you’re on her side why are you calling her a brat?
Maybe she just misunderstood you?
DarkCurrent on November 24, 2009 at 3:34 PM
Usually, when the Directors of a Company juice the books to increase stock prices, someone goes to jail.
franksalterego on November 24, 2009 at 3:36 PM
Let me know why you convince Ann to accept your view on abortion. Your view, is of course, the pro-life view?
ladyingray on November 24, 2009 at 3:37 PM
Because she’s obnoxious and without understanding. She sees things in her limited vision, and DARED call be a lib.
Here’s a shock: AnninCA gave me more room than the asian brat.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 3:37 PM
Ann has her own view on abortion. Mine is the opposite.
She and I have never discussed that topic. My aim with Ann right now is about politics.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 3:39 PM
ladyingray! How’ve you been?
Where’ve you been? I missed you.
DarkCurrent on November 24, 2009 at 3:39 PM
ONE TERMER.
Greek Fire on November 24, 2009 at 3:39 PM
I did wish you luck. I think your hopes are foolish, but I still wish you luck. I hope you succeed. That makes me a brat?
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 3:42 PM
If this has been covered previously in the comments, well, sorry, but here goes:
GDP is comprised of three elements: consumer spending, investing and government spending. Was consumer spending up? Not really. Did investing add significantly to GDP during that quarter? Survey says: nope.
Hmm. So what did increase substantially during that quarter? Was it Satan? [/Church Lady] No, it was government spending. So the increase in GDP during the quarter is almost entirely due to government spending. This does not bode well for items #1 and #2 above. In fact, it’s more likely to make things worse. But hey, look over there! It’s Elvis!
Physics Geek on November 24, 2009 at 3:43 PM
For Ann: politics = abortion
You obviously haven’t read many of Ann’s posts. She is very open and upfront about the fact that she is a one-issue political “girl” and that issue is abortion.
ladyingray on November 24, 2009 at 3:45 PM
Hey DC! I’ve been working. I’ll try to come around more. How’re things with you?
ladyingray on November 24, 2009 at 3:46 PM
Your insults and unfounded accusations against me, without ever before bothering to speak to me, made me use the term ‘brat’. I had another word in mind.
YOU judged me without wasting time to talk to me. You never wasted your time to look back, to see what I believe.
No–instead you labeled me a troll when I’m one of the most vociferous Conservatives on this site.
YOU chose to label me, in your insidious ignorance. And by design, really.
If anyone is a lib here, it’s YOU.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 3:48 PM
At 1.7% was said to have cost taxpayers $24k per car.
Is now down to 0.81%.
Does that mean each car cost the taxpayers OVER $48k per car?
DSchoen on November 24, 2009 at 3:49 PM
Actually, I know Ann’s views. She knows mine, too.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 3:50 PM
Sorry, I called you ‘libtard’ once after you called me ‘hon’. I also tried to be nice to you. Maybe I made a mistake.
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 3:53 PM
the hallmark of a true libtroll is their self righteous indignation at the imagined slights and ideologue insults they percieve to have been hurled at them. The libtroll thirsts for a “fight” the way a cactus thirsts for water, the way a worm thirts for the moist earth. The libtrolls indignation in having been discovered is boundless and fiery. See?
bloggless on November 24, 2009 at 3:54 PM
Yes. I know.
bloggless on November 24, 2009 at 3:55 PM
You remind me of someone who used to be in my life….
ladyingray on November 24, 2009 at 3:55 PM
I’m going to end this right now: You showed me hate, like all libs do. Far as I’m concerned, you’re a lib posing as a Patriot.
Shoot me if I’m wrong. I couldn’t care less.
The HATE you showed me tells me more about you than your pipqueak say against me.
You libs want a war? You got one.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 3:56 PM
Did he happen to forgive you?
bloggless on November 24, 2009 at 3:57 PM
Are you really a man? You don’t sound like one anymore.
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 3:59 PM
I had a pipqueak once.
bloggless on November 24, 2009 at 3:59 PM
Is that a bad thing?
I married a psychotic, who later married a coke fiend half her age who beat on her.
Yeah–I’m the ‘bad guy’.
And you people mock me for caring about a liberal who’s coming more and more to our side.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 4:00 PM
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 3:59 PM
Sounds like somebody’s beehive ain’t setting just right.
bloggless on November 24, 2009 at 4:00 PM
You’re going off the deep end bro.
Read what she wrote.
DarkCurrent on November 24, 2009 at 4:00 PM
Doubtful. Bullies rarely do.
ladyingray on November 24, 2009 at 4:01 PM
I feel like I am in a Lifetime Movie Network movie.
bloggless on November 24, 2009 at 4:01 PM
So now that we are at 2.8, removing the 1.7 for cash for clunkers, that leaves us with 1.2.
Can anybody say ‘smart meters’?
Freddy on November 24, 2009 at 4:02 PM
Economically, lousy. Otherwise fairly ok.
Sounds like someone’s tights are a bit too tight.
Dark-Star on November 24, 2009 at 4:02 PM
Obama administration went to war with Rush Limbaugh and lost.
Obama administration went to war with Glenn Beck and lost.
Obama administration went to war with Fox News and lost.
Obama administration went to bat in the last election and lost 6 out of 7 races.
Is there a pattern here?
DSchoen on November 24, 2009 at 4:02 PM
How quaint a try!
You, being a lib, would respect me or anyone else on any level.
How about just ending this combat and saying you judged me wrong? You are, really.
Get it done, and I’ll stop calling you a brat.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 4:03 PM
My comment had nothing to do with your ex.
ladyingray on November 24, 2009 at 4:03 PM
You mean the “Fa la la la Lifetime” channel, don’t you?
ladyingray on November 24, 2009 at 4:04 PM
You compared me to someone in YOUR life, which is none of my business. So, I extended.
I withdraw my comment–you seem to have decided I’m like someone in your province, someone you don’t like.
That’s okay.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 4:07 PM
Good and good!
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 4:09 PM
You’re not emotionally well-balanced, are you?
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 4:11 PM
Good and good!
(sorry for the misquote Lady)
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 4:14 PM
So Liam, which of your views do you share with Ann?
- Abortion: Good
- Government Health Care: Good
- Clintons: Great!
Which have you brought her over to your side on?
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 4:16 PM
A clever Concern Troll learns to masquerade as a conservative or a moderate, complimenting conservative policies, stars and their supporters in order to better set up their “concerns” about the conservative movement, make it easier to hijack threads that might otherwise damage liberals, or simply post frequently enough to distract other posters or readers, reducing the impact of conservative thread. it can be very difficult to identify them and catch them promoting one of their “concerns” of the subtle lies or half truths they spread.
For example, see if you can follow the posts on this page in another Hot Air thread where there is an overt, standard troll and a concern troll at work.
Loxodonta on November 24, 2009 at 4:19 PM
Cheap lib try to insult, rather than stand to your own account. YOU just need to be right somehow, don’t you? Even to combat a Con like you claim to be.
Actually, brat, I’m quite emotionally stable. I got that by having few. Unlike you, who goes off on wild accusations against people who believe as you. As you have shown, enemies aren’t enough for you. You, in your shown insanity, need to be cannibal, to also consume your own allies.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 4:19 PM
Hey ladyingray – just got a reason to celebrate, I passed the ServSafe exams!
Dark-Star on November 24, 2009 at 4:20 PM
Oh that’s easy: The Democrats will (again) declare a crisis and raise taxes (again) then use the money to save/create fake jobs (again). When the tax revenues can’t keep up with Democrat spending, the government will print more dollars, resulting in hyper-inflation, which, of course affect everybody.
Obama’s Economy sucks!
TN Mom on November 24, 2009 at 4:20 PM
If the libs have still don’t get it the only way is mock, ridicule and beating(if you can lay hands).
antisocial on November 24, 2009 at 4:22 PM
If you’re emotionally stable, why are your posts to me so long and rambling? I accidentally called you a lib once. How many times have you called me one now?
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 4:22 PM
Believe me, Friend, I’m always looking for a troll. In the case of Ann, I see a genuine learning in her.
Hey, maybe I’m wrong. But, if I’m right, we got another blossoming Patriot.
The more Patriots, the better.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 4:22 PM
What’s ServSafe?
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 4:24 PM
You shut me down with that.
End of the battle, please?
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 4:24 PM
at least arugula growers are doing well!!
right4life on November 24, 2009 at 4:26 PM
So you surrender? :D
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 4:26 PM
let them eat arugula!!!
right4life on November 24, 2009 at 4:26 PM
I wish to come to common terms.
BTW–I called you ‘hon’ as a term of affection. I wasn’t trying to be a wiseass.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 4:28 PM
Excellent question.
ladyingray on November 24, 2009 at 4:32 PM
Ok! I won!
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 4:33 PM
I’ll go with that. HON
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 4:35 PM
There are many posters here with whom I disagree on some issues, but like very much. I argue with them at times. I try to be patient. I tend to use the DNFTT approach with trolls, as they are most often simply trying to incite an emotional response to start a fight and turn the thread into mush. However, some trolls here are very clever and need refuting or at least questioning.
How do you determine the genuineness of an anonymous blog poster?
Loxodonta on November 24, 2009 at 4:36 PM
Maybe Obama will hold a jobs summit with arugula growers (after tonight’s state dinner party)!
TN Mom on November 24, 2009 at 4:37 PM
And I still think you\’re a brat.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 4:37 PM
You’re my prisoner now. Watch it!
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 4:40 PM
I watch their posts, what they do over time. We always betray ourselves; we can’t be anything than what we are.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 4:40 PM
Actually, hon, the mistress will become the slave. You won’t be able to help yourself.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 4:41 PM
AnninCA
You there?
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 4:45 PM
So many companies are cutting back and laying off. The more they cut, the less money in the economy. The more layoffs, the less in payroll taxes paid to states and federal government. Democrats may end up starving themselves!
TN Mom on November 24, 2009 at 4:47 PM
Don’t make me have to gag you! ;)
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 4:50 PM
There are no husbands or wives who have successfully concealed themselves from their spouses for months, years, or decades? The same for other family members or friends or neighbors? None of us have weaknesses for certain persons, and can be blind to how they are manipulating us for a very long time?
If only I had your clarity of vision, I would have been able to avoid much suffering.
My best wishes to you.
Loxodonta on November 24, 2009 at 4:50 PM
You can’t. I react with all violence against being bound. Before you or anyone else tries binding me, I will kill you. With all extreme fury I have, and that’s a lot. I have a fear against being bound, so bad, I’ll brutally kill any who try.
So don’t, even VT
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 4:54 PM
And us!
I forgot which part of TN you are in. I’m in NE TN.
ladyingray on November 24, 2009 at 4:57 PM
You already do. Experience is the best seller.
I married a psycho, from a psycho family. But it’s all good. We grow, we become better.
As you are doing.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 4:57 PM
Just cause Bill had to go pick up you and your friend from screwing around in N. Korea (which was Al’s fault), does not mean that you can hang out here and waste our time. I believe that you will be happier on the Kos or your local Craigslist political page.
Jussi on November 24, 2009 at 5:03 PM
You’re a very difficult prisoner. Relax!
It’ll be fun, I promise :)
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 5:03 PM
What are you talking about?
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 5:06 PM
I’m never a prisoner, brat. I have two options:
Win
Dead
There is no in between.
But you—you’d make such a sweet slave. And that’s really what you want to be. You claim being a Dom but you give yourself away.
Don’t test in me BDSM. I’ll hurt you.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 5:08 PM
That’s what my mother keeps telling me.
MarkTheGreat on November 24, 2009 at 5:09 PM
She was in the process of backing away from that statement. If you give her half the patience that you’ve given anninca you might be able to get another convert.
MarkTheGreat on November 24, 2009 at 5:11 PM
Mom is right. But, do you get it?
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 5:12 PM
You’re so cute when you’re angry :D
I guess that’s why your wife ran off with a crack fiend!
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 5:12 PM
AsianGirlInTights and Liam.
Even if you don’t realize it, you both are on the same team. Can’t we just kiss and make up?
MarkTheGreat on November 24, 2009 at 5:13 PM
I’m just dealing with Ann.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 5:14 PM
Funny–I’m not angry.
It’s great she went off with a cokehead. She can no longer blame me for her failings. Hell, brat–that was a favor!
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 5:17 PM
That was the plan, but it’s all screwed up now.
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 5:17 PM
I tried stopping this combat, but the brat is making herself an enemy.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 5:18 PM
I’ll stop when you do.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 5:19 PM
Clearly you’re past all that now…
LOL @ you
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 5:19 PM
OK, I’ve had enough of this bickering. Both of you go to your rooms.
MarkTheGreat on November 24, 2009 at 5:21 PM
Sorry Liam,
That was really cruel. I didn’t really mean it.
I’ll go away now.
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 5:23 PM
No! and you can’t make me!
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 5:24 PM
Sorry
AsianGirlInTights on November 24, 2009 at 5:26 PM
Gasp–haven’t…any..whiskey…in…house…
lovingmyUSA on November 24, 2009 at 5:27 PM
Relax, ok? She said worse. After her, nothing hurts me or scares me.
I’ve been calling you a brat because—well, you are. I happen to like you.
Liam on November 24, 2009 at 5:27 PM
Is this the part of the movie where we cut to the sex scene?
MarkTheGreat on November 24, 2009 at 5:29 PM
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