Poll: Romney’s favorables now below 50% among Republicans?
posted at 6:23 pm on November 23, 2009 by Allahpundit
Big caveat right off the bat: PPP is the same polling firm that predicted a Hoffman landslide in NY-23. But (a) they had Mitt’s favorables comparable with Huckabee’s earlier in the year, so it’s not like their data’s historically been screwy, and (b) this isn’t just a one-month snapshot but a trend dating back to July.
On our monthly 2012 polls, which began in April, an average of 74% of Republicans have held a favorable opinion of Palin to 66% for Huckabee and 56% for Romney.
The gap hasn’t always been that wide though. On the first three iterations of this survey, from April to June, Palin averaged a 76% favorability number to 67% for Huckabee and 63% for Romney. On the last three runs, from September to November, Palin has averaged 72% to 64% for Huckabee and just 51% for Romney.
He’s at 48 percent this month after having hit 63 percent in June, before the fade began. Even PPP doesn’t have any explanation for it. I’ll give you two possibilities. One: Huck and Palin are in the public eye these days much more than Mitt is, even if it is for the wrong reasons. Romney had better be careful that he doesn’t become an afterthought and end up being seen as a “minor candidate.” Two: With Huck and Palin natural rivals for the religious conservative vote, the perception may be building that Romney’s the RINO in the race by default. He’s always had that rep to some extent, of course, but being the odd man out among the big three only cements it. Although maybe it won’t matter: Mitt’s strategy, I assume, is to position himself as the alternative to whoever emerges from the Huckabee/Palin fracas, counting on the fact that New Hampshire will keep him alive in the early running and the “anyone but Huck/Palin” vote will put him over the top.
Speaking of the fracas, here’s video from last night’s Geraldo of Huck defending the woman of the hour. He and Palin are momentarily neck and neck among Iowa Republicans in terms of their favorables — although among Iowans generally, it’s a very different story. There’s no question, I think, whom Romney would rather face in a two-man race. Click the image to watch.
Update: Early consensus among the commenters is that Mitt’s decline, coinciding as it does with the health-care debate, is attributable mainly to RomneyCare. Probably right. No wonder he’s keeping a low profile these days.
Blowback
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Didn’t Reagan as president appoint Sandra O’Connor and every January be sure to address the March for Life with an audio message to avoid being photographed at the rally?
dedalus on November 23, 2009 at 7:26 PM
anyone who wants or deserves a nomination for President should be out there BIG time in the trenches right now at this most critical point in our country’s history. PERIOD!
SDarchitect on November 23, 2009 at 7:28 PM
We can no longer win just the Red States Bush won.The Southwest is crawling with illegals the Dems are courting and Republicans alienated with all the Minuteman rhetoric. New Hampshire might be permanently Dem as well.
Speedwagon82 on November 23, 2009 at 7:29 PM
One thing I don’t get these days is why we must always hate the people we don’t vote for. I mean, I like Palin. I like Romney. Why should I choose? Even when I vote, does that mean I have to dislike the one I don’t vote for?
Why is the only motivation to vote is the idea that you hate the other guy?
Sackett on November 23, 2009 at 7:29 PM
RomneyCare was the stake through the heart of Romney’s Presidential chances.
He could be a good VP, or cabinet member.
portlandon on November 23, 2009 at 7:29 PM
Mitt offers the country a choice between Chicago gangster socialism, and smooth, smart wall streeet socialism. If that is the “choice” offered by the two parties in 2012, there will be a 3rd party. Count on it.
Ditto for T-Paw, the global warming fraud. Guess we know why he’s laying low right now too, what with all of the global warming fraud stuff hitting the fan.
Now as for Huck, when does he start claiming Sarah is not Christian?
james23 on November 23, 2009 at 7:31 PM
I don’t hate Romney. I hate his supporters. (poptech) Just like people like Palin, but hate her supporters. I do hate Huck though, what he did to Romney last election was unforgivable.
portlandon on November 23, 2009 at 7:31 PM
You’re ready to give up the south and plains states….
HornetSting on November 23, 2009 at 7:32 PM
I continue to be amazed at the number of people who think the savior of the conservative movement will be a man whose last political victory was a statewide election in Massachusetts.
Bruce in NH on November 23, 2009 at 7:18 PM
^ This.
I think many of the Frumite strain aren’t necessarily enamored with Romney so much as they want anyone to back who is not Sarah Palin. He’s the most appealing “other” to them, so they’re forced to try to pump him up even with the heavy luggage he’s bringing.
Romeny’s speech at the GOP convention last year was pretty reckless if I recall. But he wasn’t on the ticket, so he didn’t take a lot of heat for it.
If Mitt were under the same scrutiny Palin has been under, it would be ugly. That kind of awareness, however, often escapes the Douthats of the world. I think they may forget what the ACORN-Democrat-Media Complex can do to someone once they become the primary target.
Right now, Romney is like a Horace Grant or Scottie Pippen to Palin’s Jordan. If Romney is asked to carry the offense like Jordan, he’ll find out what it means to have the ACORN/DNC Axis building a defense designed to stop him.
PhoenixUniversal on November 23, 2009 at 7:34 PM
All I know is this, as I finish up Sarah Palin’s incredible book, one thing is quite clear, the more people read her book, the less anyone else will matter.
I like reading books like this. I’ve read stuff from Iaccoca, McKay, and even Bob Lutz, all awesome books. This is the kind of book I like reading the best.
Sarah’s book strikes a note like nothing I’ve read in decades. Granted, I’m a hard core Palinista, but this book has blown we away. Well beyond the high expectations I had going in.
It’s truly easy to understand why el Rushbo called this one of the best policy books he’d ever read. The whole damned thing makes the case why she should, and will be the next President.
As for Mitt, he’s done.
During the primary, he was my choice, after Rudy and Teh Fred went away. But it was a “lesser of all evils” thing, just like the general would have been without Palin.
RomneyCare is Willard’s Waterloo.
In 2012 we’ll have someone to actually vote FOR. And now, more than ever, I can’t wait to vote for her!
gary4205 on November 23, 2009 at 7:35 PM
So Romney will “position” himself as the moderate in 2012?
Doesn’t that just feed into the previous charges of being a flip-flopper?
Norwegian on November 23, 2009 at 7:24 PM
Yes, this has already begun. He did something in the last few days in this vein, though I can’t recall exactly what it was. He knows this is his only real chance to stop the Palin Express. I think it was something like saying that “all Republicans” would be welcome to him, or something. That is, a kind of “we love you Dede” moment, to differentiate himself from Palin and the rest.
PhoenixUniversal on November 23, 2009 at 7:37 PM
The campaign hasn’t even started yet….I don’t think we can start declaring candidates dead already.
terryannonline on November 23, 2009 at 7:37 PM
Norweigan on November 23, 2009 at 7:24 PM
With his situation with the base of the party perhaps being dire I don’t think Mitt is going to be overly concerned about his ‘reputation as a flip-flopper. He’s got bigger fish to fry, like getting himself back in the game any way he can. I can only speculate but I think he may make his first priority to suck up to ‘McCain’s moderate voters, those that voted for ‘maverick’ in the primaries. And sucking up to McCain and McCain’s wife would also be a good idea.
technopeasant on November 23, 2009 at 7:38 PM
I hope Romney runs as himself and try to be a “true conservative.” He needs to run as a problem solver with smarts.
terryannonline on November 23, 2009 at 7:39 PM
All I know is this, as I finish up Sarah Palin’s incredible book, one thing is quite clear, the more people read her book, the less anyone else will matter.
I like reading books like this. I’ve read stuff from Iaccoca, McKay, and even Bob Lutz, all awesome books. This is the kind of book I like reading the best.
Sarah’s book strikes a note like nothing I’ve read in decades. Granted, I’m a hard core Palinista, but this book has blown we away. Well beyond the high expectations I had going in.
It’s truly easy to understand why el Rushbo called this one of the best policy books he’d ever read. The whole damned thing makes the case why she should, and will be the next President.
As for Mitt, he’s done.
During the primary, he was my choice, after Rudy and Teh Fred went away. But it was a “lesser of all evils” thing, just like the general would have been without Palin.
RomneyCare is Willard’s Waterloo.
In 2012 we’ll have someone to actually vote FOR. And now, more than ever, I can’t wait to vote for her!
gary4205 on November 23, 2009 at 7:35 PM
Awesome! I got the book shipped today and am pumped to start reading it. Haven’t had the chance yet.
PhoenixUniversal on November 23, 2009 at 7:39 PM
If this is true, Romney will get hammered with the apparent flip-flop. Last year he was desperately trying to position himself as the ultra-conservative – no doubt to counter McCain’s moderateness. I hope Romney doesn’t take this road or he will surely come away with nothing to show for it.
KickandSwimMom on November 23, 2009 at 7:40 PM
Yeah, he certainly solved MA’s problem, didn’t he?
Mitt, plain and simple, is a successful businessman because he’s a good negotiator. In 2012, people will not be looking for a negotiator, but rather, a reformer. That person is Palin.
yogi41 on November 23, 2009 at 7:44 PM
He can run if he wants to, but I see Romney’s current drop as Romneycare + it’s been over a year since he was dropping big $ getting his campaign ads out. He’s someone who needs to pay to get his message out.
If he writes a book, some people would buy it but wouldn’t line up to get autographs very long, and he can get a few interviews but not a lot of buzz generally.
Seems like he has to pay for access to big airwave exposure at this point IMO.
cs89 on November 23, 2009 at 7:44 PM
Sandra O’Connor was a dud from a President who also chose Scalia and Bork and elevated Rehnquist to Chief.
PRESIDENT Reagan didn’t chase the cameras, unlike some of his successors. In the era before the internet and CSPAN a persistent gesture of attention from the leader of the free world was fully appreciated, even without a video feed.
Are you really suggesting Reagan was lukewarm on abortion?
Chris_Balsz on November 23, 2009 at 7:44 PM
Gomer Pyle that the media would fry like on of his squirrels……..or Caribou Barbie?
A RINO dream come true….a fight between Barbie and Gomer!!
Split the Conservatives and leave a RINO as the nominee of the worthless GOP.
Seriously, milquetoast Gomer as the nominee?
You’re kidding right?
There is only one candidate that the GOP/Dems are scared of in D.C.
(Hint she’s married to Todd).
PappyD61 on November 23, 2009 at 7:45 PM
If Romney is the nominee I won’t be thrilled but I will vote for him. If Huck is the nominee I will vote for Obama. And I say this as someone who loathes Obama.
angryed on November 23, 2009 at 7:46 PM
I don’t know if I could even hold my nose and vote for Romney. Has anyone noticed how he says Thank You at the end of an interview, listen next time. I know this may seem petty but good god this guy is straight up a phony. Don’t get me started on Huckabee. I can’t believe anyone thinks this guy is real either, have you seen his show when he interviews people, man he’s an ass kissin fake. Maybe I can’t spell or write very well, but I can see and smell bullshit from the other side of the ranch.
wheelgun on November 23, 2009 at 7:49 PM
angryed on November 23, 2009 at 7:46 PM
I am a Palin supporter but I am curious why you feel that way about Huck. I’m not trying to be cute here; I would really like to know.
technopeasant on November 23, 2009 at 7:49 PM
If this is true, Romney will get hammered with the apparent flip-flop. Last year he was desperately trying to position himself as the ultra-conservative – no doubt to counter McCain’s moderateness. I hope Romney doesn’t take this road or he will surely come away with nothing to show for it.
KickandSwimMom on November 23, 2009 at 7:40 PM
He definitely did something along these lines in the last few days. Can’t remember where I read it, and I’m not exactly sure what it was, but it was this kind of thing, a clear signal he’s positioning himself as the “moderate” candidate.
PhoenixUniversal on November 23, 2009 at 7:50 PM
Romney (R), like Holder (D), could say he “learned his lesson” with RomneyCare, that his ‘mistake makes him a better man,’ but ….. Mitt has that big fat R after his name.
Soooooo, Romney will be lucky to be VP.
marybel on November 23, 2009 at 7:50 PM
and besides that……it’s 2009 and we’ve still got to stop AMNESTY or it’s all a moot point.
let’s see….what are Huckleberrys’ chances / record going to look like when the next debate is going to be AMNESTY?
Once they get Amnesty and get a 80% Illegal vote for Dems it’s over (officially for the permanent minority GOP).
Even a nuke attack or two couldn’t cost the Judas in the White House his support in the media or Capitol Hill.
STOP OBAMACARE
STOP AMNESTY
SAVE THE REPUBLIC!!!
PappyD61 on November 23, 2009 at 7:50 PM
I’m deadset against Huckster myself but I will vote for him if need be.
Big difference between a Rino and a falt out marxist like the O.
Don’t kid yourself
kangjie on November 23, 2009 at 7:51 PM
Huckabee is a dumb hick.
But he’s got my vote against Obama. I guess.
therightwinger on November 23, 2009 at 7:52 PM
I’m not going to get into a fight over Mitt vs. Sarah….it years aways (if it even happens that way). I will say that I can see him as an extremely competent leader. That is all.
terryannonline on November 23, 2009 at 7:54 PM
The American electoral system is so screwed.
The GOP has to stop voting for Doles and McCains.
Crux Australis on November 23, 2009 at 7:54 PM
Nobody is giving up on them. But they will vote for almost any non-Obama person. They voted for McCain and Romney or whoever couldn’t possibly suck harder than he did.
Speedwagon82 on November 23, 2009 at 7:59 PM
I’m halfway through Sarah’s book and I am impressed with her political savvy. She understands the games played and the drama inherent in politics. Sarah doesn’t seem to indulge in them herself.
I have to confess, I’m sold on Palin now and will not only vote for her if she runs; I’ll volunteer to help and donate money. I don’t believe in the ‘savior’ model of politics. We have to fix our own perceptions of what we want from government. Sarah would have the spine to say “no” and that will help us get back to self reliance (where REAL self-esteem lives).
skree on November 23, 2009 at 8:00 PM
therightwinger on November 23, 2009 at 7:52 PM
HUCKABEE IS A DUMB HICK
Why do you have to indulge in such rhetoric? Haven’t you seen the kind of damage that these type of accusations have done to Sarah Palin? Don’t we on the Right want to take down the Democrats in 2010 and oust Obama in 2012.
Well. calling Huck a dumb hick isn’t the way to go about it. If we want to take back America we have to band together and stop calling each other names and putting each other down. Internecine warfare is not the way to go.
I don’t put Mitt or Huck down; I just disagree with them on political philsophy and policies.
technopeasant on November 23, 2009 at 8:01 PM
I would rather see Romney over the Fed, or Romney as Secretary of State, or Romney head of the RNC.
President Romney, not so much. And if Huck is nominated, I will vote third party.
Conservative Voice on November 23, 2009 at 8:03 PM
PhoenixUniversal=on the money.
You are making a lot of sense, my friend. I don’t dislike Romney and I think he may be more competant than many on certain economic issues that we desperately need help on, but as far as him withstanding the msm/acorn/astroturf onslaught?…only the Palin juggernaught will be up to that task. All other comers would be crushed within days. IMHO
Kataklysmic on November 23, 2009 at 8:03 PM
@technopleasant
I don’t have to take up for any Republican just because I oppose Obama. I don’t find Huckabee or Palin particularly smart, or the type of people who are up to the standards of the presidency.
therightwinger on November 23, 2009 at 8:04 PM
*snicker*
HornetSting on November 23, 2009 at 8:05 PM
This is my nightmare scenario.
Romney’s the ONLY one of the likely GOP candidates for ’12 that I see being able to unseat Obama. God help us (no pun intended), if Palin is the nominee we’re going to be subjected to a full eight years of this idiot.
Please, Republicans, set aside your ideological purity in this one case for electibility.
Vyce on November 23, 2009 at 8:09 PM
He understood the political calculations. He also understood the power of the camera better than his predecessors and even, to some extent, subsequent presidents.
Aside from the Mexico City policy did he push for other substantial executive or legislative changes addressing abortion?
dedalus on November 23, 2009 at 8:10 PM
Yeah, I agree. Unfortunately the Republicans seem to be rejecting people who are actually smart and electable these days while promoting people who they agree with no matter how unprepared for the office they are…
therightwinger on November 23, 2009 at 8:11 PM
Anyone tied to government intervention into healthcare will be a non-starter at this point… Mitt’s strengths for 2008 are major drawbacks for4 2012 as independents and conservatives will be looking for a Republican Candidate who will FIGHT the left, not work with them… The next Dubya or McCain need not apply….
phreshone on November 23, 2009 at 8:11 PM
Mitt’s too classy to mix it up with or try to compete with Palin. Timing is important and he’s saving his face time.
PaCadle on November 23, 2009 at 8:12 PM
Um, s’cuse me, I think it’s called the Palin effect.
Sarah is out amungst the folks and they FLIPPIN LOVE HER! Huckaboast, Romflat? Well, not so much.
Lots to be said about star power.
Chewy the Lab on November 23, 2009 at 8:13 PM
So do all Palin supporters resort to cutesy nicknames for the opposition.
Vyce on November 23, 2009 at 8:17 PM
Nuh-uh. A GOP candidate who could unseat Obama would have to be able to fire up the base, match Obama’s charisma and hammer hard on Obama’s record and personal foibles as well. The only who can do that is Palin, like it or not.
ddrintn on November 23, 2009 at 8:17 PM
Honestly, I think Romney just doesn’t have anything to say, beyond bromides.
ddrintn on November 23, 2009 at 8:18 PM
Romney/Palin 2012?
skree on November 23, 2009 at 8:19 PM
Two words: Socialized Medicine.
Anything any politician tries to say beyond that is wasted breath.
logis on November 23, 2009 at 8:20 PM
Never. Palin’s not going to be anyone’s scapegoat again.
ddrintn on November 23, 2009 at 8:20 PM
The candidate also has to appeal to independents which is where Palin has trouble.
dedalus on November 23, 2009 at 8:20 PM
Yeah. You want one?
donh525 on November 23, 2009 at 8:22 PM
Oh and about the terrible controversy of having Sarah Palin talk to soldiers at Fort Bragg, arghh bar the media! As we all expected Sarah was there to support the troops and sell books, not start a fight with the Commander in Chief. See Fox Report.
Christian Conservative on November 23, 2009 at 8:23 PM
Be prepared to be blown away.
Seriously, this book is much better than I thought it would be, and I expected off the chart awesome!
By far the best book of it’s kind I have ever read. I was already completely and totally sold on Sarah Palin, and already committed to support anything she does.
What ever level of support goes beyond that, I’m there!
This is one smart, and quite funny gal. She has a story telling style though that just gets it done. I simply can’t imagine a red blooded American reading this book and not coming away liking Sarah, and linking what she is about.
The book is fun.
Now, back to Romney. He should go find a private sector job.
gary4205 on November 23, 2009 at 8:23 PM
Her numbers among independents are improving, from what I remember. You seem to assume that Palin’s image is absolutely frozen in time and she’ll never get any more support than she already has. The response to her recent media blitz should dispel that notion.
ddrintn on November 23, 2009 at 8:26 PM
therightwinger on November 23, 2009 at 8:04 PM
I DON’T FIND HUCKABEE OR PALIN PARTICULARLY SMART
COMMENT:
I won’t speak on Huck but with Sarah you are buying into the lies, disinformation and propaganda spread by state-run media and their allies in the entertainment industry. Do you really believe that any governor of any of the 50 states is an idiot? Don’t you think the voters of their state would have figured that out before voting them into office? If Palin is such a dummy how did she not only take down a sitting governor in the primaries in 2006 but a former governor in the general election? Are you going to say ‘dumb’ luck?
Sarah is not smart: by whose standards a VP who thought that FDR was POTUS in 1929 and went on TV then, a sitting POTUS who bows to the Japanese emperor oblivious to the outrage of seniors who either fought the Japanese in WWII or had relatives killed in the Pacific theater.
Sarah is so dumb that she comes up with the term ‘death panels’ and cause them to be removed from the health care bill. Sarah is so dumb that she writes a book that Rush Limbaugh calls one of the most substantive books on policy that he has ever read. Is Rush also dumb? Are his 22m listeners dumb? Are the Palinistas dumb for backing Sarah 200%? Speaking only for myself I am no dummy; I know talent, especially political talent. Sure Sarah may not have the IQ of Einstein but not many do. Ask yourself would Sarah be so dumb not to send more troops to Afghanistan per the request from General McChrystal? Would Sarah be so dumb to send the economy into the tank while incurring a 12 trillion dollar national debt? Would Sarah be so dumb to bring KLM to NYC to stand trial in a civilian court? No to all those questions.
Have you read any of her Facebook posts or the transcript of her speech in HK?
Were you on vacation when Sarah debated Biden and won hands down?
Or do you think Sarah is dumb because she is a strong Christian believer and lives her faith?
Perhaps that’s closer to the truth.
technopeasant on November 23, 2009 at 8:28 PM
BS Sarah is at 49% according to the last Fox Poll.
Clyde5445 on November 23, 2009 at 8:30 PM
I think a lot of it is “an attractive woman must be an idiot”. She’s accomplished quite a lot, without the silver spoon and famous dad.
ddrintn on November 23, 2009 at 8:30 PM
In 2007 Rudy Giuliani was leading the polls as the likely Republican nominee. We all know how that turned out.
We go through this pattern every four years.
The popularity contest right now is irrelevant.
mistythestripper on November 23, 2009 at 8:33 PM
He may well have been, had he not followed such a boneheaded campaign strategy.
ddrintn on November 23, 2009 at 8:37 PM
Huckabee has done an excellent job of bringing key issues to the forefront with his show. His opening monologues are usually spot on. While he hasn’t been at the teaparties, he is speaking the language of the teaparty patriots on his show. He even gives links and websites to the viewers so they can do something about this colossal socialization that Obama is trying to bring about.
Romney’s favorables are down because of Romneycare and because the voters still do not trust him. I sense that Romney’s supporters will go to Pawlenty.
Palin should do well with her favorables with her booktour. But I am not sure she has answered the one question that the voters have.
texasconserv on November 23, 2009 at 8:37 PM
Nonsense. We’re at the point where neither party can win major office based solely upon their base, unless they live in districts that swing so heavily in their favor that a loss to the opposing party is almost inconceivable.
Major races these days are won because of independents. It’s what allowed the GOP to make a remarkable “comeback” earlier this month and win in VA and NJ.
I don’t see Palin ever being able to improve enough with independents to be able to defeat Obama in ’12. Romney has the ability to do so, because he is at least believable as a candidate (and by that, I mean he seems qualified for the job and presidential). Do you really think that the GOP base will sit home in ’12 if Romney is the nominee? You’ll be so desperate to get rid of Hopenchange that you’ll vote for him, and he could sway enough of the independent vote to get the job done. Palin, I don’t see it happening. Independents may decide they LIKE her more than they did a year ago, but that doesn’t mean they’d choose her to lead the nation. As far as I’m concerned, she committed political suicide by abandoning the one major office she was elected for, before her term was up.
Vyce on November 23, 2009 at 8:37 PM
mistythestripper on November 23, 2009 at 8:33 PM
Yes Rudy was leading in the polls but McCain was usually near the top.
I firmly believe because it takes so long to prepare to run for POTUS what you see now is what you’re to see competing in the GOP primaries with Pawlenty perhaps being included in the mix.
Do you really think Palin’s popularity is going to dissipate? Huck will still be a presence because of his TV gig and his evangelical support. That leaves Romney, and frankly I don’t know what he will do. But if he exits, welcome Pawlenty.
technopeasant on November 23, 2009 at 8:40 PM
You can’t win without the base, either. Just try winning with just the “independent” vote. Romney’s got a MUCH higher hill to climb than Palin ever would have.
Ummmmm…John McCain thought similar things last year. Given the choice between Dem and Dem Lite, the Dem will win. Simple as that.
Palin can recover from the “quitter” thing a lot more easily than Romney can get past RomneyCare. I don’t care what the Mass legislature was like. He was the governor.
ddrintn on November 23, 2009 at 8:44 PM
I agree. We really don’t know who will get the nomination until probably March 2012 or later even. Hillary Clinton was the presumed frontrunner for the Democrats after 2004. We just don’t know. Honestly, I don’t think it will be any of the people currently mentioned. It could be one of the “dark horse” candidates mentioned in the Real Clear Politics article the other day.
NathanG on November 23, 2009 at 8:45 PM
Hey, Allahpundit. This is just for you; you already know the backstory. *hugs*
“You know every time I answer a question about Sarah Palin, I have people who say that I’m critical of Sarah Palin, and so (chuckles) I wanna be very careful when I say I’m glad she’s on the stage. I think to have more conservative voices is great.” Mike Huckabee from Geraldo At Large, November 22 2009 foxnews
apacalyps on November 23, 2009 at 8:46 PM
Only if Palin chooses not to run. If she runs, all bets are off.
ddrintn on November 23, 2009 at 8:47 PM
Huh? Massachusetts doesn’t have government healthcare. It’s through private insurance companies.
therightwinger on November 23, 2009 at 8:47 PM
Vyce on November 23, 2009n at 8:37 PM
1) Rasmussen (released nov 16)
Palin’s F/UF with indies: 55/43
2)ABC/Wash Post poll (released about a week ago)
Palin’s F/UF with indies 46/47
Voting intentions:
Palin with indies: Yes: 49% No: 50%
Palin with female indies:Yes: 50% No: 50%
3)Fox new poll released last Thursday:
Palin’s F/UF: 49/38
These results don’t fit your template, do they?
technopeasant on November 23, 2009 at 8:47 PM
Mandates. Still won’t fly.
ddrintn on November 23, 2009 at 8:48 PM
She’s scary. I thought they would tab Claire McCaskill to dog Palin, but I’m not a lefty, so what do I know.
james23 on November 23, 2009 at 8:49 PM
Whats the damn obsession with Palin? She’s not that great people…..Average intellect, run of the mill positions.
therightwinger on November 23, 2009 at 8:49 PM
Romney’s run of the mill. That’s his (and your) problem.
ddrintn on November 23, 2009 at 8:51 PM
Run of the mill my a$$. Palin is an average person. That’s fine and dandy but it doesn’t make you presidential material.
therightwinger on November 23, 2009 at 8:54 PM
Romney is not electable. I mean the guy came in THIRD behind McCain and Huckabee for God’s sake. If he couldn’t beat those two lame asses, he certainly can’t beat Obama.
But let’s all smoke whatever you are smoking, and pretend Romney could win the nomination and beat Obama. Just what would you have?
With Romney, you’d have Obama light. You have a nanny state “progressive” Republican who would grow government, do things the way they are always done. You’d have no real change. American would only be destroyed at a slower space.
If we want America to get back on track, to get back to the Constitution, to prosper, there’s only one choice, and one choice only. Sarah Palin.
gary4205 on November 23, 2009 at 8:57 PM
the rightwinger on November 23, 2009 at 8:49 PM
Quite frankly my obsession is throwing the Marxist from the WH in 2012 and defeating all his colleagues and allies in his takeover of the American government in 2010 and 2012.
As far as I’m concerned Palin is the only one that can make that happen.
At least now you have graduated from ‘not smart’ to ‘average intellect’. That’s a start.
technopeasant on November 23, 2009 at 8:57 PM
Very bad news for Australia.
The Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme ( Cap ‘n’ Trade ) will pass on Thursday. Australia has no effective Opposition now.
Thousands of jobs will be lost.
Crux Australis on November 23, 2009 at 8:58 PM
bingo.
Mittens? Huckster? T-Paw? hello, anybody home? They are laying low, not leading.
Evidently, you’ve been out of the country for the last year. “Superior intellect and temperament”, combined with a token, will buy you a ride on the Broad Street subway right now–and nothing more.
james23 on November 23, 2009 at 8:59 PM
Sorry to hear that Crux Australis. Hopefully the United States does not follow the same path.
technopeasant on November 23, 2009 at 9:00 PM
Has there been another candidate to overcome similar negative numbers and get elected to the White House? Currently, 53% say they wouldn’t consider voting for her. At a similar point before the last election Hillary’s number was 42%.
dedalus on November 23, 2009 at 9:05 PM
Well done, Mike. It doesn’t hurt you one iota to defend Sarah Palin. In fact, it helps you among conservative voters. Furthermore, it places you above the fray and reveals you have confidence in yourself and your abilities. Thank you.
apacalyps on November 23, 2009 at 9:09 PM
**He may well have been, had he not followed such a boneheaded campaign strategy.
ddrintn on November 23, 2009 at 8:37 PM**
Partly, but he also erred in strategy by peaking too early. There is a science of pacing oneself in election politics. Plus, Giuliani was propelled by popularity; he was “America’s Mayor.” Granted, he did a great job in NYC but that did not automatically translate to qualifications for the presidency. As we get closer to the election a candidate’s actual positions and record gets scrutinized. Tends to change the game a bit.
mistythestripper on November 23, 2009 at 9:10 PM
Oh, good God…Give me a friggin break.
Romney isn’t progressive. At worst he’s a moderate who’s fiscally conservative, and who knows how to actually govern and win over independent voters.
At best he’s the smartest potential Republican candidate in decades.
therightwinger on November 23, 2009 at 9:10 PM
dedalus on November 23, 2009 at 9:05 PM
You are behind the times:
Rasmussen has her F/UF at 51/43 and Fox News has it at 47/42.
technopeasant on November 23, 2009 at 9:12 PM
Romneycare just demonstrates that while Romney is a good negotiator he’s weak on principles.
Why would we want that again?
Lonetown on November 23, 2009 at 9:12 PM
Palin is her own boss, so is tough to predict, but one prediction about her in 2012 strikes me as a stone cold, mortal lock: she won’t be carrying bags for some GOP good ol boy. She’s been there and done that; and has the scars all over her back to prove it. If she wants the nomination and fails to get it, she will endorse someone and go home to AK, where she has a great life waiting.
james23 on November 23, 2009 at 9:14 PM
This is why I am a little concerned about my fellow conservatives in the US.
Do you want to follow the conservative path or the RINO/moderate path?
What will it be?
(my username is AussieforSarah @ C4P)
Crux Australis on November 23, 2009 at 9:15 PM
**Yes Rudy was leading in the polls but McCain was usually near the top.
technopeasant on November 23, 2009 at 8:40 PM
**
Just a few months before the first primary McCain’s camp was in tatters and he was expected to drop out at any time. There was no money and staffers were not getting paid. He was not polling near the top.
**Do you really think Palin’s popularity is going to dissipate?
technopeasant on November 23, 2009 at 8:40 PM
**
Yes, for many reasons.
mistythestripper on November 23, 2009 at 9:16 PM
Romney comes across as a time-server whose principles are subject to change. He “knows how to govern”? He showed in his term as governor that he is really good at getting rolled by a liberal legislature.
If he was so damn smart he’d be president right now. Enough with the “he’s an Ivy Leaguer, he’s a geeeeeeenius” crap.
ddrintn on November 23, 2009 at 9:17 PM
Dunno. Has there? How many would’ve been willing to vote for Reagan in 1977?
ddrintn on November 23, 2009 at 9:20 PM
“Huck and Palin are in the public eye these days much more than Mitt is, even if it is for the wrong reasons.”
Allahpundit
++++++++++++++++++
Please identify comments like that as your personal (suck-ass) opinion, rather than attempting to subliminally attempting to shape our opinions…
fabrexe on November 23, 2009 at 9:20 PM
mistythestripper on November 23, 2009 at 9:16 PM
Wishful thinking.
technopeasant on November 23, 2009 at 9:21 PM
Spot on. I’m not so sure about her popularity dissipating, but I do starkly remember reading about McCain’s campaign being in tatters. You may be right. Sarah Palin may be the “flavor of the moment” because of her book. It really depends on where she goes from here. Frankly, I would rather none of the people involved in the 2008 race get the nomination. I want a fresh face.
NathanG on November 23, 2009 at 9:22 PM
I’m going from ABC/WP from November 16. The Rasmussen number I’m seeing are from about the same time.
If anyone has the Rasmussen cross-tabs, it would be interesting.
dedalus on November 23, 2009 at 9:23 PM
Spoken like a true dummy who knows nothing about Sarah Palin, or her positions. And knows even less than that about her accomplishments.
Knowing what she has already done in her life, the great accomplishments she’s had, I’d have to say she is one of the finer minds in politics today. She is most certainly one of the more brilliant strategists out there.
I know one thing, had she been running the 2008 campaign, and not McCain’s people, we wouldn’t have Obama in the WH right now.
You need to go back and look at her record, and yes, read her book. This woman has it going on.
gary4205 on November 23, 2009 at 9:28 PM
** Sarah Palin may be the “flavor of the moment” because of her book. It really depends on where she goes from here.
NathanG on November 23, 2009 at 9:22 PM
**
She’ll carve out a niche in identity politics. My guess is she’ll do radio or tv as a female Rush. She has the potential to become very wealthy via that route. She is a celebrity who has appeared more times on Entertainment Tonight than Meet the Press. Her public speeches are heavily controlled with only pre-selected questions to be answered. She has no off the cuff ability like Huck and Romney possess. By her own admission she is restless. Let’s face it – running a campaign day to day is boring. It requires a great deal of self-discipline and ground work outside the spotlight. Governing within an office is boring too. Day to day stress and mediocrity punctuated by bits of glamour in the limelight. No, Palin will do political Hollywood. Her crowd is Rush and Beck and frankly they will be her co-workers and competition. By publicly “leaving her options open” she keeps everyone guessing and therefore extends her fame. I give her that much, she knows how to manipulate the media.
mistythestripper on November 23, 2009 at 9:34 PM
I actually agree with both of you. She’s a lot like George W. Bush: not necessarily a genius, of average intellect, a genuinely affable person, and a great political strategist.
I also agree about McCain. What a bunch of incompetent dolts. They had no idea how to run a campaign. But, then again, they’re just like Obama’s team, and probably every other candidates from here to any modern campaign. Campaign strategists are so uptight about the campaigns being scripted that it’s embarassing. So what you want about Sarah Palin, good or bad, but they should have let her be herself, win or lose.
NathanG on November 23, 2009 at 9:39 PM
Sorry Romneybot, you fail not once, but twice with this idiotic argument.
A fiscal conservative would have never gotten near anything even close to RomneyCare. A true person with a working brain would have see this as a disaster from a mile away.
I mean seriously, this had epic fail written all over it.
And oh boy, Willard is so smart that he didn’t realize growing government was stupid, and in this case would bankrupt the state.
If this is what passes for “smart” PLEASE help me go find the dumbest son-of-a-bitch on earth. THAT would be a better choice than “smartest potential Republican candidate in decades.”
“Smart” is what got this country in the mess we are in now. I want common sense. I want someone who knows how to balance a budget and GROW an economy. I want someone who wants to SHRINK government, not grow it.
That would not be Willard Romney. Romney may be “smart” but he’s not SMART. He doesn’t possess an ounce of common sense. In fact, at this point in history, he is dangerous.
Romney is another Statist, a progressive who sticks his finger in the wind and follows that direction. A massive flip flopper with no particular core.
We’ve had enough of these kind of folks. In fact, we’ve had too many.
I don’t dislike Romney as a person, but as an elected official, I want nothing to do with him.
He simply fails the common sense test.
gary4205 on November 23, 2009 at 9:43 PM
Palin will win the nomination and pick Mitt for her VP to unite the party. Or, if Mitt is not running, she’ll pick the moderate Pawlenty if he is backed by the GOP leadership.
It will be a uniting the party move like Reagan did.
She’s running. Her Dad is leaning towards her running.
Sapwolf on November 23, 2009 at 9:57 PM
I wouldn’t say she has no off the cuff ability. But she has charisma, which neither Huckabee nor Romney possess. Can’t manufacture it, either.
Romney will become a permanent Olympics organizer or bean-counter for GM before that happens. If that’s what Palin wants, she could’ve already been doing it.
ddrintn on November 23, 2009 at 9:58 PM
Electability is bs. Wasn’t't McCain seen as electable? (Both times, even) Hillary, too? Kerry? That meme may have worked in the 20th century, but it’s a big o-fer here in the 21st.
johnny alpha on November 23, 2009 at 10:11 PM
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