Shock poll: Rubio within 10 points of Crist in Florida

posted at 5:32 pm on November 19, 2009 by Allahpundit

Yeah, it’s a dKos poll, but as I’ve told you before, their pollster’s okay. Kos himself thinks Crist is all but finished. For once, I’m inclined to agree with him.

These trendlines are bleak for Crist, and there’s little chance of him surviving. Remember, Rubio hasn’t spent a dime on media yet. This is all grassroots driven, and the teabaggers are engaged, angry, and looking for the next Scozzafava. Crist is in their crosshairs, and the governor has been flopping all over the place hoping to stem this growing tide against him, and failing. Note — 50 percent of Republicans still don’t know who Rubio is. The more he raises his name ID, the better he does…

If I’m Charlie Crist, I realize that I’m toast in the Republican primary. I note that a three-way race is a coin flip at best. But as a Democrat… switching parties and making an earnest transition on the issues would be the cleanest path to a Senate seat.

Not only hasn’t Rubio spent on media yet, but he can count on boatloads of earned media from the right. The question, then: Will Crist pull a Specter and switch? As in Pennsylvania, Florida’s primary is closed so the centrist can’t count on independents to bail him out. As a Democrat, Crist leads Rubio in a general election match-up 45/34 — but even there, 21 percent are undecided. If he doesn’t switch, the primary will likely decide who wins the Senate seat, as Crist leads big over likely Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek and Rubio trails narrowly despite most of the electorate being undecided. Of course, this all assumes that my nightmare scenario of a bloody primary suppressing Republican turnout in the general election won’t come to pass. Will it?

Sarahpalooza-flavored exit question: Palin is bound to endorse Rubio eventually, but will he have her come and campaign for him? Sarahcuda is useful primarily as a spur to turnout among the base, but Rubio is less in need of that than any other candidate running next year. He’s already the base’s darling; all she can do for him, potentially, is spur turnout among Palin-haters on the left (which is the not-too-secret reason Bob McDonnell politely declined her generous offer in Virginia).


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I will vote for whomever I damn well please. Rubio will not get my vote until he is the “lesser of two evils”, he is not yet.
Squid Shark on November 19, 2009 at 8:47 PM

Thanks for helping me make my point. Again!

Nelsa on November 19, 2009 at 8:52 PM

This says so much IMO:

Slate magazine is just one of the countless media outlets convulsing with St. Vitus’ Dance over that demonic succubus Sarah Palin. In its reader forum, The Fray, one supposed Palinophobe took dead aim at the former Alaska governor’s writing chops, excerpting the following sentence from her book:
The apartment was small, with slanting floors and irregular heat and a buzzer downstairs that didn’t work, so that visitors had to call ahead from a pay phone at the corner gas station, where a black Doberman the size of a wolf paced through the night in vigilant patrol, its jaws clamped around an empty beer bottle.”

Other readers pounced like wolf-sized Dobermans on an intruder. One guffawed, “That sentence by Sarah Palin could be entered into the annual Bulwer-Lytton bad writing contest. It could have a chance at winning a (sic) honorable mention, at any rate.”

But soon, the original contributor confessed: “I probably should have mentioned that the sentence quoted above was not written by Sarah Palin. It’s taken from the first paragraph of Dreams From My Father, written by Barack Obama.”

unseen on November 19, 2009 at 8:55 PM

unseen

LOLOLOL

beachgirlusa on November 19, 2009 at 9:05 PM

Thanks for helping me make my point. Again!

Nelsa on November 19, 2009 at 8:52 PM

How? Help me out here, I am not trying to confuse.

Squid Shark on November 19, 2009 at 9:08 PM

Here I am to remind you all. Crist is a professional politico. He will do or say whatever is required for his own survival. He has already realized he can be reelected Governor easily. So what if Rubio takes the Senate seat. Watch Crist. Watch him closely. Crist is going to self sabotage on some temporary nonsense. He will bravely step aside as the “tide” of support for Marco Rubio shows itself to be “genuine”. He’ll throw in behind Rubio and ride the wave to his own reelection. Bless his heart, Crist just might make a good Conservative governor yet. He just needs a little more time to simmer. [In no way am I suggesting that I think Crist IS a Conservative. I'm suggesting that as long as he acts right, I am not going to rush to his hanging.]

Blacksmith8 on November 19, 2009 at 9:43 PM

Here I am to remind you all. Crist is a professional politico. He will do or say whatever is required for his own survival.

Crist is a politico, so is Rubio. His whole life has been geared to this moment, he jumped on the chance as if his pissing matches with Crist havent already cost Florida enough.

Squid Shark on November 19, 2009 at 9:48 PM

Squid Shark on November 19, 2009 at 9:48 PM

Just so you won’t feel lonely, I will vote for Crist if he wins the primary. One of us won’t be voting for our first choice but we will still be doing the right thing.

Cindy Munford on November 19, 2009 at 9:49 PM

Cindy Munford on November 19, 2009 at 9:49 PM

agreed

Squid Shark on November 19, 2009 at 9:51 PM

Go Rubio Go. Adios Charlie!

FloridaMike on November 19, 2009 at 11:20 PM

Romney-Rubio 2012!

It has a nice ring to it. Also, Romney can pull in all the campaign money, and win independents (especially if the economy is going to be the issue I think it will). Meanwhile Rubio might attract more of the hispanic vote from Florida and California. Give them Florida, California and Texas = game over.

Also, if the Dems try to criticize Rubio as a VP pick because of only 2 years in the Senate – it will just underscore how unprepared Obama was for the top job.

joncoltonis on November 20, 2009 at 2:33 AM

Also, if the Dems try to criticize Rubio as a VP pick because of only 2 years in the Senate – it will just underscore how unprepared Obama was for the top job.

joncoltonis on November 20, 2009 at 2:33 AM

It has been suggested (can’t recall by whom – sorry) that because of Barry’s inexperience and total cock-up of the economy, etc. that Republicans will be reluctant to vote for a similarly inexperienced conservative/Republican. I call BS on this analysis. Why? Because a neophyte with principles and reverence for the constitution is head and shoulders above an America-hating, unprincipled neophyte. The differences are stark and I do not fear the inexperienced patriot.

SKYFOX on November 20, 2009 at 9:54 AM

It will be an interesting election.

If Rubio wins, he’ll be on anyone’s Vice-Presidential shortlist. He’s intelligent, young, Hispanic and from a swing state (one which isn’t geographically close to the states of the major presidential contenders.) He also pleases the base, has decent legislative experience (As the former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives) and an attractive family.

He looks good on paper. And I have a hunch that the Republicans don’t want their 2012 ticket to be two White Christian men. So it wouldn’t surprise me if the Veep shortlist is Cantor, Whitman, Sandoval, Jindal, Rice, Lieberman, Haley (depending on how the 2010 South Carolina Gubernatorial primary goes) and Rubio (depending on how the primary goes obviously.)

That said, the smartest thing Palin could do is endorse Crist while praising Rubio, if the race still looks competitive in a few months (Rubio may reach his ceiling soon and screw up somehow, or Crist could run for a second term as Governor.) It would improve her credentials with independents, allow her to praise Crist’s Executive experience (while subtly reminding voters of her own) and demonstrate that her support isn’t poison to a moderate.

Mister Mets on November 20, 2009 at 10:23 AM

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