Russo-US relations not “reset” at all

The National Journal takes a look at Barack Obama’s claim to have successfully “reset” relations between Russia and the United States, and comes away less than impressed.  In fact, relations between the two nations haven’t changed much at all, on either side.  David Gauvey Herbert and Artemy Kalinovsky point out that the US has not really changed its position on missile defense in Poland and Russia has not changed its position on Iran, nor are either side likely to do so.  And one reason why the Russians remain unimpressed with Obama’s efforts is Obama’s running mate, VP Joe Biden:

As Iran draws closer to nuclear power and Afghanistan teeters on the brink of collapse, the U.S. needs Russian cooperation more than ever. But a year after President Obama’s election and nine months after Hillary Rodham Clinton’s partially fumbled attempt to “reset” relations with Moscow, Russian officials still aren’t sure what to make of the new administration.

At this September’s Valdai conference, an annual meeting of the minds for Russian policy wonks, President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin complained that despite White House talk of a reset, there has been no tangible progress, according to attendee Oksana Antonenko, program director for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“There’s still a great deal of skepticism within the Russian political elites and government about what our motives and long-term plans are,” said Thomas Graham, who served as senior director at the National Security Council for Russia from 2004 to 2007.

Hope and Change hasn’t convinced the Kremlin that the new administration is anything other than “old wine in new bottles,” as the authors of the article explain. And Biden hasn’t helped:

Part of the problem may be the administration’s inconsistent messaging. At the center is Vice President Joe Biden, who has made three trips to Central and Eastern Europe this year, reassuring allies that warmer relations with Russia won’t leave them in the cold. In the process, he’s taken a few potshots at Moscow, saying the Russian economy was “withering” and arguing that their empire was in decline.

The vice president won himself goodwill in Central and Eastern Europe during his three-plus decades on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee by supporting the expansion of NATO and encouraging American intervention during the wars in the former Yugoslavia. The position he’s staked out now, Simes argued, is to improve relations with Moscow without budging on any issues important to America’s partners in the region.

Tony Blinken, Biden’s national security adviser, said as much in a conference call before the October trip to Poland and the Czech Republic, telling reporters, “We’ve been very clear from day one that we are seeking to improve relations with Russia, but not at the expense of any of our partners — our partnerships.”

Russian policymakers — already disinclined to trust Obama’s motives — have latched onto these statements as proof of the White House’s disingenuousness.

The Russians don’t know Biden as well as Americans do. He’s a buffoon, a self-important loose cannon apt to say the wrong thing at the perfectly wrong time. Ironically, Obama chose Biden to shore up what was seen as a weakness during the campaign on foreign policy and military affairs. Now Obama’s stuck with Biden as he shoots off his mouth and undermines Obama’s efforts with Moscow.

But this does point out the lack of substance in Obama’s foreign policy. National Journal notes that the Russians are unimpressed because Obama has offered them nothing new except a nicer “tone,” which Biden has busily undermined anyway. Obama seems convinced that all he has to do is travel the world and say nice things to “restore our standing in the world,” but other nations want their national interests addressed, not a tongue bath.

Until Obama provides a significant reason to cooperate on Iran, Russia won’t abandon its trade with Tehran, which amounted to over $3 billion.  They want the US to retreat from eastern Europe, acknowledge their hegemony in western Asia, and help them reduce the costs of maintaining a nuclear arsenal without compromising their position as a global military power.  Hillary Clinton can send all of the mistranslated “reset” buttons she wants and Obama can smile for the cameras on the global stage, but the Russians are not going to budge from their own interests unless Obama offers them some worthwhile trades.

And when Obama finds that he cannot make those trades — because they threaten our national interests — perhaps he will learn that the previous administration understood the Russians better than he does, and that we didn’t need a reset button in the first place.

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