Brutal: Obama’s approval among independents down to … 34/51; Update: Support for ObamaCare down to 40/52

His overall approval rating’s pretty grim too — 46/46, down five points since last month — but I’m highlighting the indies because (a) this is the same Fox News poll with the suspicious Republican sample that I cited earlier, and (b) a -17 among the group that’s going to decide the midterms is eye-popping, especially when you compare it to last month. In October, among indies, he was at 49/34. This month, a 15-point swing. What happened?

Lest you think this is an outrageous outlier, please note that Rasmussen has him at 46/53 today among likely voters.

Overall, a 57 percent majority says President Obama is providing the kind of leadership they expected, while 17 percent say he is a stronger leader than expected and 23 percent say he’s a weaker leader. When this question was asked about President George W. Bush early in his first term, 68 percent said his leadership was what they expected, 14 percent said he was a stronger leader than expected and 13 percent a weaker leader (July 2001)…

For President Obama, 54 percent of voters have a favorable opinion and 42 percent unfavorable. When he took office in January, 76 percent had a favorable view and 15 percent unfavorable…

When asked about next year’s Congressional elections, there’s a split similar to the president’s job rating. If the election were held today, 39 percent say they would vote for the Democratic candidate to help Obama pass his policies and 42 percent say they would back the Republican to provide a check on Obama’s power.

Does any of this matter right now? Yep: According to Nate Silver, a statistical analysis shows that Obama’s personal popularity within a senator’s state, not the popularity of ObamaCare itself, is a strong indicator of whether he/she is likely to support health-care reform. The lower The One goes, the grimmer Reid’s and Pelosi’s prospects get. (In fact, Fox’s poll shows that there’s been virtually no bounce from PelosiCare’s passage in the House.) In fact, ObamaCare itself is now so unpopular that Obama’s ratings, flaccid though they are, are actually helping to boost support for the bill. See, for example, Gallup’s poll today showing cresting support for the status quo in American health care as the backlash to O-Care rises, a result Gallup itself can’t resist lamely trying to spin. He and Reid are doing their best to buy Blue Dogs off, but I wonder what happens if his numbers dip a few points more. Some centrist Dems are already in dire straits.

Oh, and as for that 23 percent who think he’s a weaker leader than they expected, try re-polling that next month after stories like this about his dismal trip to Asia have had some time to sink in. Exit quotation from David Gergen: “[T]his was not at all the kind of summit that an American administration would want – and it does bear some ominous similarities to the Kennedy-Khrushchev talks in Vienna. It would seem wise not only for President Obama but for all Americans to treat this as a wake-up call.”

Update: Like I was saying, even in his weakened state, he’s still more popular than his crappy bill:

Opposition to Obama on health care has reached its highest level now as well, with a majority of Americans now saying for the first time that they’re against his plan. While support has remained steady with Democrats, Republicans and independents are becoming more firm in their push back. 92% of GOP voters say no, up from 84% a month ago, as do 58% of independents, up from 47% in October. It’s interesting to note that even as independent voters have hardened their opposition on health care their overall support for Obama remains unchanged. Overall 52% of voters say they’re opposed to Obama on health care with 40% supportive.

That’s awfully close to the 35/51 split that Quinnipiac found today. No wonder Reid’s planning another under-the-radar Saturday evening vote.

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