Dems finally notice flight of independents

posted at 2:05 pm on November 18, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

Democrats have finally figured out that the independents they won in 2006 and 2008 have begun leaving their banner in droves.  Polling numbers for both Barack Obama and Congress have dropped rapidly in the second half of 2009, with Quinnipiac’s under-50% approval rating for Obama just the latest data point in that trend.  But they seem to have a little trouble connecting the dots to the radical agenda and the manner in which they’ve attempted to jam it down American throats this session:

Mounting evidence that independent voters have soured on the Democrats is prompting a debate among party officials about what rhetorical and substantive changes are needed to halt the damage.

Following serious setbacks with independents in off-year elections earlier this month, White House officials attributed the defeats to local factors and said President Barack Obama sees no need to reposition his own image or the Democratic message.

Since then, however, a flurry of new polls makes clear that Democrats are facing deeper problems with independents—the swing voters who swung dramatically toward the party in 2006 and 2008 but who now are registering deep unease with the amount of spending and debt called for under Obama’s agenda in an era of one-party rule in Washington.

A Gallup Poll released last week offered a disturbing glimpse about the state of play: just 14 percent of independents approve of the job Congress is doing, the lowest figure all year. In just the past few days alone, surveys have shown Democratic incumbents trailing Republicans among independent voters by double-digit margins in competitive statewide contests in places as varied as Connecticut, Ohio and Iowa.

The Q-poll data from earlier today shows the problem better than Congressional approval ratings, which are traditionally low even in relatively good times.  Obama has a 20-point approval deficit among independents on the economy (38/58), and a 27-point deficit on Afghanistan (30/57).  Even on an issue where Obama gets wan overall support, foreign policy (49/42), he’s underwater among independents (45/49).

Why does that matter for Congressional Democrats?  First, midterms are in large part a referendum on the President.  Traditionally, a President loses seats in the midterms anyway, even if the President himself remains popular.  However, for an unpopular President, the losses can get very large — as they did for Bill Clinton, who was more popular at this stage of his presidency than Obama.  Second, Democrats hoped to rely on Obama’s popularity to get big turnouts for their re-election campaigns, especially in tough districts.  His collapsing popularity outside of the Democratic base will force them to run against Obama and Pelosi and the Democratic agenda.

But if the Democrats think that the problem is rhetorical, they will find themselves unpleasantly surprised at the midterms.  The problem isn’t a lack of smooth-talking Democrats; if it was, Obama would still have approval ratings in the mid-60s.  The problem is the radical, government-expanding nature of the Democratic agenda.  It’s also tied to the poor performance of their economic program, which was another big-government approach.  People didn’t flood town-hall meetings because the Democrats didn’t talk nicely enough, after all.

The big question will be whether those independents will swing to the GOP in 2010 or just stay home.  If the GOP stays focused on core principles of limited government and fiscal responsibility, the Republicans have a golden opportunity to restore their standing on those issues and get a second look from independents while keeping their base satisfied.

Blowback

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Comment pages: 1 2

Independents just need to be called racists a few more times.

lorien1973 on November 18, 2009 at 2:07 PM

Q pollsters are raaaaacists.

OhioCoastie on November 18, 2009 at 2:08 PM

But they seem to have a little trouble connecting the dots to the radical agenda

Maybe they like tea?

BobMbx on November 18, 2009 at 2:08 PM

Headline: Dems find their a$$ while wiping.

Badger40 on November 18, 2009 at 2:08 PM

YOU RACISTS! You don’t know nothing.. but keep voting for us until we think you know something!

Wait, wait! Come back.. you aren’t really a racist!

upinak on November 18, 2009 at 2:10 PM

My EYES. My EYES.

nyx on November 18, 2009 at 2:10 PM

Not enough teabagging jokes have been made.

gwelf on November 18, 2009 at 2:11 PM

The Democrats also believe that all the Titanic needed was for its deck chairs to be rearranged.

rbj on November 18, 2009 at 2:13 PM

spot on Ed!

cmsinaz on November 18, 2009 at 2:14 PM

Sure, just insult and attack a little more and that’s sure to bring them around.

But, a lot of lefties think the numbers are bad because they’re not being socialist enough fast enough…….if they’d just try harder to cram, cram, cram, leftism down our throats we’ll start liking them more.

I hope they keep that mindset…..

JoeinTX on November 18, 2009 at 2:15 PM

If the GOP stays focused on core principles of limited government and fiscal responsibility, the Republicans have a golden opportunity to restore their standing on those issues and get a second look from independents while keeping their base satisfied.

Agreed. It’s emphasis on the social issues that scare away independents.

rhombus on November 18, 2009 at 2:15 PM

Nancy Pelosi stands there with her finger in the dike promising “all is well, don’t worry”.

The Dike is cracking Pelosi.

portlandon on November 18, 2009 at 2:15 PM

For starters, the Dems could silence Olbermann. . . just for starters.

Sami on November 18, 2009 at 2:15 PM

SAN FRAN NAN: Independents are having a problem understanding our clear message that it is Bush’s fault. Our low approval ratings are because we aren’t blaming Bush enough.

nitzsche on November 18, 2009 at 2:16 PM

Sami on November 18, 2009 at 2:15 PM

2nd

cmsinaz on November 18, 2009 at 2:16 PM

I think the House flips next year. Senate would have flipped if it weren’t for the insane 60-40 advantage they going into it. I especially hope clueless liberals like our Senator Brown here in Ohio have fun running for re-election at the same time as Obama.

gsherin on November 18, 2009 at 2:16 PM

These independents have all been astroturfed away by the oil companies and the RNC.

/growlifesimonblue

LibTired on November 18, 2009 at 2:16 PM

Quick! Schedule a primetime speech by Dear Leader!

OhioCoastie on November 18, 2009 at 2:17 PM

I’m not so sure the problem is the radical agenda.

The problem is they bald-face lied about the radical agenda.

If it was just the agenda, they could change it.

But they won’t be able to run-away from the most outrageous set of lies that has ever been foisted on a country.

Even with guys like Lenin and Hitler, there was no mystery about what they intended to do. Perhaps it was worse than they said, but NOBODY would suggest they weren’t clear about the direction they were headed.

But with our criminals, the catastrophe is multiplied by the unequivocal fact that they have been lieing through their teeth at every step of the cram-down.

notagool on November 18, 2009 at 2:17 PM

“I think it’s about action and not about words right now. The public wants to see action,” said Dimock. “I’m not sure words are going to help Democrats at this point. They’ve got to achieve some successes.”

Means dems don’t get it. Shhhh, let them.

Schadenfreude on November 18, 2009 at 2:19 PM

Not enough teabagging jokes have been made.

gwelf on November 18, 2009 at 2:11 PM

The famous teabagging joke deficit syndrome. Totally killed Carter.

the_nile on November 18, 2009 at 2:19 PM

Nancy Pelosi stands there with her finger in the dike
portlandon on November 18, 2009 at 2:15 PM

BAD MENTAL IMAGE

Badger40 on November 18, 2009 at 2:20 PM

Nancy Pelosi stands there with her finger in the dike promising “all is well, don’t worry”.

The Dike is cracking Pelosi.

portlandon on November 18, 2009 at 2:15 PM

There were rumors of Hillary being gay…

right2bright on November 18, 2009 at 2:21 PM

If the GOP stays focused on core principles of limited government and fiscal responsibility, the Republicans have a golden opportunity to restore their standing on those issues and get a second look from independents while keeping their base satisfied.

Ain’t gonna happen any time soon Ed. The Republican’s don’t get it either, their too busy trying to tear down the only common sense voice out there.

And we all know who she is.

Knucklehead on November 18, 2009 at 2:21 PM

The Dike is cracking Pelosi.

portlandon

The Pelosi dike is cracking.

FIFY

honsy on November 18, 2009 at 2:21 PM

“I’m not sure words are going to help Democrats at this point. They’ve got to achieve some successes.”
Schadenfreude on November 18, 2009 at 2:19 PM

And sadly, oftentimes words are enough for the sheeple.
Only the screwups have been so monumental they can no longer be ignored by the apathetic American public.
Hence tea parties & meeting protests.
Seriously-when will the majority get a clue?

Badger40 on November 18, 2009 at 2:21 PM

Democrats hoped to rely on Obama’s popularity to get big turnouts for their re-election campaigns, especially in tough districts. His collapsing popularity outside of the Democratic base will force them to run against Obama and Pelosi and the Democratic agenda.

How poetic would that be? Dems who planned to run against Bush in 2010 will now find themselves running against Obama instead.

Doughboy on November 18, 2009 at 2:21 PM

The big question will be whether those independents will swing to the GOP in 2010 or just stay home. If the GOP stays focused on core principles of limited government and fiscal responsibility, the Republicans have a golden opportunity to restore their standing on those issues and get a second look from independents while keeping their base satisfied.

Indeed. If they focus on:

- Economy/jobs
- Fiscal restraints/deficit reduction/saving generations
- Security

…they’ll have it made. If they go nuclear on their usual pet peeves, they’re as blind as the far left.

Schadenfreude on November 18, 2009 at 2:22 PM

They promised ‘Change’, the radical Statists knew what they meant, independents didn’t, now they do.
And They DON’T LIKE IT!

Juno77 on November 18, 2009 at 2:22 PM

Well, I cannot complain.

WashJeff on November 18, 2009 at 2:22 PM

Nancy Pelosi stands there with her finger in the dike

portlandon on November 18, 2009 at 2:15 PM

So that’s why Maddow’s so animated!

OhioCoastie on November 18, 2009 at 2:23 PM

His collapsing popularity outside of the Democratic base will force them to run against Obama and Pelosi and the Democratic agenda.

SEN Kyl spoke out against porkulus.
White House response: “Nice state you got there Kyl, it’d be a shame if something happened to it.”

GOV Paterson is running against Obama in NY state.
White House response: “KSM en route to your position in 3..2..1… jackass”

The White House punch back strategy is teaching us all something……Obama hits like a girl (and throws like one too)

Polls.

ted c on November 18, 2009 at 2:23 PM

I don’t see the house flipping for at least two election cycles. I think the Repubs are not smart enough to pull it off. The Repub establishment are gonna run a bunch of RINOs like NY-23, and the independents are going to stay home, until someone gets the message. It sure won’t be Steele at the RNC.

I do think the Repubs will make some modest gains in 2010, but that we will not see a change in majority until 2016, after Obambi is reelected and really takes us down the drainhole.

Why the pessimistic outlook? Because we as of yet do not have an electable candidate!! Palin could possibly win in 2016, but not in 2012.

catlady on November 18, 2009 at 2:23 PM

Independents just need to be called racists a few more times.

lorien1973 on November 18, 2009 at 2:07 PM

I laughed.

Dark Eden on November 18, 2009 at 2:23 PM

I can think of 12,031,299,186,290 reasons to change power in government.

WashJeff on November 18, 2009 at 2:24 PM

Nancy Pelosi stands there with her finger in the dike
portlandon on November 18, 2009 at 2:15 PM

BAD MENTAL IMAGE

Badger40 on November 18, 2009 at 2:20 PM

FTFY

LibTired on November 18, 2009 at 2:25 PM

Will not happen in 2010, cause the RNC “establishment” just does not get it. Then we will really see a government take us down the drainpipe.

catlady on November 18, 2009 at 2:26 PM

I always look forward to the Flight of the Independents.
It’s a migration which takes place exactly one year after election day when the Independents realize the politicians are never going to do what they promised while campaigning.

Rocks on November 18, 2009 at 2:26 PM

catlady on November 18, 2009 at 2:23 PM

Just make the GOP down less than a handful of seats. Leave Pelosi in power. She won’t be able to do much since some part of their agenda will piss off at least 5 Dems

WashJeff on November 18, 2009 at 2:26 PM

WashJeff, don’t you mean 14 trillion reasons?

OhioCoastie on November 18, 2009 at 2:26 PM

sorry I thought my first post did not make it

catlady on November 18, 2009 at 2:26 PM

Traditionally, a President loses seats in the midterms anyway, even if the President himself remains popular

let us not forget that W actually gained seats during his first midterm…

cmsinaz on November 18, 2009 at 2:27 PM

The test will be when the Dimms start to fake it to attract them back. Will the independents know its just a ploy to con them into signing up for a second helping?

Itchee Dryback on November 18, 2009 at 2:28 PM

WashJeff, don’t you mean 14 trillion reasons?

OhioCoastie on November 18, 2009 at 2:26 PM

Oh yes, the likley number in Nov 2010. That is sooooo great for my kids.

WashJeff on November 18, 2009 at 2:28 PM

Following serious setbacks with independents in off-year elections earlier this month, White House officials attributed the defeats to local factors and said President Barack Obama sees no need to reposition his own image or the Democratic message.

This attitude, and mindset has me worried. Obama doesn’t seem to mind losing independents. Why? My thoughts are…there won’t be elections. There will be a coronation, and appointments. That way, we can save the earth by not driving to the polls.

capejasmine on November 18, 2009 at 2:28 PM

If the GOP stays focused on core principles of limited government and fiscal responsibility, the Republicans have a golden opportunity to restore their standing on those issues and get a second look from independents while keeping their base satisfied.

This.

BadgerHawk on November 18, 2009 at 2:28 PM

Rocks on November 18, 2009 at 2:26 PM

Reminds me of the “Flight of the Bumblebees” music. Independents so busy flitting from flower to flower, trying to get the sweetest deal for themselves…

catlady on November 18, 2009 at 2:28 PM

Here’s what the libs have forgotten, and what independents, righties and all thinking people, including sane Democrats, will hold against them.

Schadenfreude on November 18, 2009 at 2:29 PM

There also may be a Bradley effect. Democrats and MSM have called anyone who doesn’t like Obama a racist. If someone calls and asks you if you like Obama, you might say yes. In today’s world you don’t know who is calling you.

jeannie on November 18, 2009 at 2:30 PM

Attempting to educate snoozing, dope-addled Indies is about as productive as teaching algebra to your 4 year old niece. These people are continually up for sale for a piece of chocolate. And that’s NOT a racist comment.

leftnomore on November 18, 2009 at 2:30 PM

The really dumb dems think their numbers are tanking because they aren’t doing ENOUGH

The only thing they aren’t doing enough of is listening, being transparent, being accountable, telling the truth…did I leave anything out?

Ltlgeneral64 on November 18, 2009 at 2:31 PM

capejasmine on November 18, 2009 at 2:28 PM

That’s when we get our shotguns out and take back our government. That is why we have a 2nd amendment – to scare the s**t out of leaders who contemplate such a move. We are not “sheeple” – libtards are. Just give them their opiates/cocktail parties and they will blindly follow…

catlady on November 18, 2009 at 2:32 PM

The Obama administration is both radically ideological — which they could probably get away with — and laughably incompetent, which they can’t. Even the abcnews website has a story about the administration’s “credibility gap” reviving this gem from the Vietnam era. True leftwing believers won’t leave, but it certainly makes sense that everyone else would, notably the independents. I just hope these poll numbers stick when it really counts, in November 2010.

jwolf on November 18, 2009 at 2:33 PM

If the GOP stays focused on core principles of limited government and fiscal responsibility, the Republicans have a golden opportunity to restore their standing on those issues and get a second look from independents while keeping their base satisfied.

Lucy sets the football. Charlie Brown eyes it. Cartoon bubble: What could possibly go wrong?

If

Bruno Strozek on November 18, 2009 at 2:35 PM

If the GOP stays focused on core principles of limited government and fiscal responsibility, the Republicans have a golden opportunity to restore their standing on those issues and get a second look from independents while keeping their base satisfied.
Agreed. It’s emphasis on the social issues that scare away independents.

rhombus on November 18, 2009 at 2:15 PM

Why do we always have to have a RINO tell us what will sell and what will drive people away? How about you stand for what you believe, and I will do the same.

SGinNC on November 18, 2009 at 2:36 PM

The only way for the Dems to stop this is to stop the spending, stop raising taxes, stop nationalizing everything, and do real health care reform, not just try to take it over. But they won’t do that. Liberals think they have a mandate. Wait until 2010…..

WyoMike on November 18, 2009 at 2:39 PM

All these poll numbers will delay the implementation of far left agenda for a short while. Obama and Co will have the appearance of moving towards center, while secretely assuring their base they haven’t changed their goals.

The fear is that “Can Obama-Pelosi-Reid fool the public into believing they are moderate center left” again? And move full speed ahead in the next cycle (beyond 2010).

Sir Napsalot on November 18, 2009 at 2:40 PM

The Dike is cracking Pelosi.

portlandon on November 18, 2009 at 2:15 PM

For some reason, this sounds like a line from a Playboy letter.

MarkTheGreat on November 18, 2009 at 2:41 PM

Well, I cannot complain.

WashJeff on November 18, 2009 at 2:22 PM

I’m sorry – but that is just downright freakin scary.

oldfiveanddimer on November 18, 2009 at 2:41 PM

If the GOP stays focused on core principles of limited government and fiscal responsibility, the Republicans have a golden opportunity to restore their standing on those issues and get a second look from independents while keeping their base satisfied.

Never underestimate the ability of the GOP to blow a golden opportunity.

Cicero43 on November 18, 2009 at 2:46 PM

what rhetorical and substantive changes are needed … but … attributed the defeats to local factors

These guys don’t drink their own Kool-Aid ?

J_Crater on November 18, 2009 at 2:46 PM

Wait until the immigration reform hits. *oy vey*

AnninCA on November 18, 2009 at 2:49 PM

That’s ok, let them bask in their own arrogance and keep their eyes wide shut until they slam into the brick wall that tosses them all out on their rears. It’s what’s good for America.

scalleywag on November 18, 2009 at 2:55 PM

what rhetorical and substantive changes are needed … but … attributed the defeats to local factors

Liberal Lexicon:

Local factors: People that don’t support your position.

BobMbx on November 18, 2009 at 2:56 PM

How can you call me Racist when I despise Reid, Pelosi and Obama equally?

Just an “equal opportunity offender”.

SayNo2-O on November 18, 2009 at 2:57 PM

portlandon on November 18, 2009 at 2:15 PM

Ewwww…..

Torch on November 18, 2009 at 2:59 PM

That’s ok, let them bask in their own arrogance and keep their eyes wide shut until they slam into the brick wall that tosses them all out on their rears. It’s what’s good for America.

scalleywag on November 18, 2009 at 2:55 PM

I’m remembering back to a Star Trek: TNG episode where the evil Moriarity and Lady (??) are placed into a contained holographic generator box, where, for them, they continue living normal lives.

Any chance we can do that liberals? Just beam them into a box where we’ve created the Utopia world they’re seeking.

Question: If we could create such a box, would liberals volunteer to enter it, knowing it was a computer-generated world?

BobMbx on November 18, 2009 at 3:01 PM

IHO, the dems have listened to the far left Money men (Soros et al) and the KOS folks and thought they represented the pulse of the nation. Now they are beginning to understand that yes, they are the extreme left of the nation. While trying to appease them, they are losing their core and independents. Karma, what a concept.

Guest1.1 on November 18, 2009 at 3:01 PM

Like they say in north Texas: “Front’s comin’ ”

These douchbags are ruthless and clever, though, so 2010 will be a difficult challenge. Hopefully it will be 1994 Redux, but probably more nasty and bitter

Janos Hunyadi on November 18, 2009 at 3:02 PM

The test will be when the Dimms start to fake it to attract them back. Will the independents know its just a ploy to con them into signing up for a second helping?

Itchee Dryback on November 18, 2009 at 2:28 PM

Graham, Snowe, Hatch, McCain, Crist, none of them will get it…

right2bright on November 18, 2009 at 3:04 PM

BobMbx on November 18, 2009 at 3:01 PM

There’s water on the moon I hear…beam them up there and let them f@#$ that up. It has no constitution for them to worry over either.

Wait, I’m sorry Mr. Moon, that was mean.

scalleywag on November 18, 2009 at 3:06 PM

Like they say in north Texas: “Front’s comin’ d’rectly

fify

I miss north Texas :(

scalleywag on November 18, 2009 at 3:11 PM

If the GOP stays focused on core principles of limited government and fiscal responsibility, the Republicans have a golden opportunity to restore their standing on those issues and get a second look from independents while keeping their base satisfied.
Agreed. It’s emphasis on the social issues that scare away independents.

rhombus on November 18, 2009 at 2:15 PM

Why do we always have to have a RINO tell us what will sell and what will drive people away? How about you stand for what you believe, and I will do the same.

SGinNC on November 18, 2009

And this is exactly what will kill the GOP. When people, mainly social conservatives now think the traditional platform of the Republican Party is now akin to RINO. This is ludicrous and ignorant for a multitude of reasons, since these very things were part of the GOP for a very long time, when social conservatives were in the Democratic Party.

How is that actually those who want to change the GOP leave its historic emphasis on small government, strong defense and pro economic growth, and fixate on personal issues that can be dealt with at home, are somehow the true Republicans?

And those who want to GOP to stay with those ideas, are somehow not real Republicans, even though small government, low taxes and strong defense is the antithesis of what the Democratic Party is?

Its like some alternate universe were are in, where traditional Republicans are somehow no longer real Republicans, and those Social Conservatives whose ideas were not that long ago part of the Democratic Party, somehow think they are actually the real Republicans, and everyone else is just a RINO.

But the point of the first message quotes is true. Western Independents and small government types feel nothing in common with the social conservative big government types who want to steer the GOP away from its roots to an evangelical based party that is fine with big government as long as it promotes the right values. Its why western states have tilted Democrat in recent years.

firepilot on November 18, 2009 at 3:11 PM

If the GOP stays focused on core principles of limited government and fiscal responsibility, the Republicans have a golden opportunity to restore their standing on those issues and get a second look from independents while keeping their base satisfied.

Please, please, please focus on fiscal issues. There are many many people who don’t vote/vote against the GOP based on social issues.

MetaThought on November 18, 2009 at 3:14 PM

This is great news and all, but how come we have to elect a liberal bozon every 8 – 12 yrs to figure out that they suck at being responsible for anything?

bitsy on November 18, 2009 at 3:15 PM

I think the liberals are still thinking the election was a mandate. I never quite got that. If not for the crash, it was looking very iffy for Obama in all the moderate states.

It’s been fascinating to watch the attack on those same voters. Double down without the cards in your hand is sort of dumb.

AnninCA on November 18, 2009 at 3:21 PM

firepilot on November 18, 2009 at 3:11 PM

Actually you are living in an alterante universe if you think that Abortion, Homosexuality and other liberal values were ever historicaly Republican or even Democrat. You can make the case that we are doomed because we don’t adopt your liberal social values, but I am here to tell you that if the Republicans turn their backs on the Conservatives in the Republican party, the party will be toast. Bank on it.

SGinNC on November 18, 2009 at 3:25 PM

firepilot on November 18, 2009 at 3:11 PM

After the talk of a New Contract for America, The leaders of the GOP (Who ever they are today)should get together to make the GOP’s platform cohesive. They should address the RINO’s and Conservative principles. Then they should come out with one message. Part of that message should be “RINOs are not welcome”. Another part of the message should be “If you are a multi Billion Dollar Company, it is your right to succeed or to go bankrupt. It is not your right to ask for or receive tax payer dollars”. Another part of the message should be, “Everyone should have their own home. But, it is not the government’s responsibility to secure a loan for you if you do not meet the lending criteria”.

Guest1.1 on November 18, 2009 at 3:25 PM

Every time you hear a church bell ring, another Reagan Democrat is made

John the Libertarian on November 18, 2009 at 3:26 PM

Nanzi Pelosi
I throw up in my mouth some
Just hearing her name

How’s that for Haiku?

UltimateBob on November 18, 2009 at 3:29 PM

Fifty years from now, historians will look back on this time in the USA exactly as we looked back on Nazi Germany in the thirties and ask how the hell did that happen?

jukin on November 18, 2009 at 3:36 PM

So what constitutes a RINO? According to many social conservatives, anyone who wants the GOP to stick with small government, low taxes, strong defense is somehow a RINO?

Just because Social Conservatives left the Democratic Party from the late 60s through early 90s, does not mean that it should be turned over to you all.

Personally, I really do not care if someone is a homosexual. That is their own deal, its not my job or anyone else job to go look in their bedroom. Its those who want the GOP to be a bunch of social busybodies caring about everyones sexuality, that turns off a lot of people. Would some of you be happier if we started jailing people for not having the right sexuality or social beliefs?

This is exactly how the GOP went astray. There is hardly any more credibility left regarding small government and smart economic policies, because many present day people want to see the GOP become a social values party that is an extension of their church, instead of his traditional role in promoting small government.

And I would not call Homosexuals “liberals” because there are quite a few who have served in the military and at the top level of the RNC. Even Sen Larry Craig here in Idaho is no liberal, and he sure aint straight either.

I am not sure what evangelicals/social conservatives find so detestable about small government and staying out of peoples lives as much as possible, but if big active government involvement in peoples personal lives is so important, then isnt the Democratic Party more appealing then?

firepilot on November 18, 2009 at 3:36 PM

The big question will be whether those independents will swing to the GOP in 2010 or just stay home.

Good question… if the GOP continues to run big government, statist, war mongering neocons then the polls show the independents will stay home. However, if they change back to the message that Goldwater presented and Reagan repeated those independents just might vote for Republicans. ..

Here’s a good example for you. If the GOP wants to give Nancy Pelosi an easy win in 2010 then another neocon will be the candidate in her district. The independents in her district will stay home. However, if the GOP wants to make her have to really put up a fight then they’ll back a conservative like John Dennis.

popularpeoplesfront on November 18, 2009 at 3:38 PM

Why the pessimistic outlook? Because we as of yet do not have an electable candidate!! Palin could possibly win in 2016, but not in 2012.

catlady on November 18, 2009 at 2:23 PM

100% assbackwards wrong! The way the Pinnochio presidente and his merry band of leftists are trashing this country, insulting this country, outright lying through their teeth and using the State run media whores in their assualt a Republican or Independent not afraid to stand up and say NO MORE reform this town will and can win and that person is SARAH/LIZ 2012

With two more years of increasing unemployment an Islamic Terrorist could win! Hey wait isn’t that what we have now?

dhunter on November 18, 2009 at 3:38 PM

Mounting evidence that independent voters have soured on the Democrats is prompting a debate among party officials about what rhetorical and substantive changes are needed to halt the damage.

Rhetorical changes? IOW: “Uh-oh! More and more, the peasants aren’t being fooled by our propaganda outlets in New York and LA. How can we continue to lie through our teeth and still get the peasants to vote for us?”

White HoUse officials attributed the defeats to local factors and said President Barack Obama sees no need to reposition his own image or the Democratic message.

Of course he “sees no need”…he’s a radical Leftist idealogue. He isn’t concerned with elections or Democrats or polls. His only concern is in “Rahm-ing” through his legislative agenda (universal health care, Cap-n-Trade, etc.) as fast as possible in order to remake the US into “a more just and equitable partner in the global village”.

I do think the Repubs will make some modest gains in 2010, but that we will not see a change in majority until 2016, after Obambi is reelected and really takes us down the drainhole…Why the pessimistic outlook? Because we as of yet do not have an electable candidate!! Palin could possibly win in 2016, but not in 2012.

Obama is already polling under 50% and he’s not even one year in yet.

Also, wait until the Bush tax cuts expire next year and the average working American sees an extra $50-$100 bucks disappear on payday.

Finally, unemployment probably won’t peak until around this time next year at between 11-12%. That will be less than 2 years before the next presidential election, by which time we’ll be lucky if unemployment falls below 8%.

Put all of that together and any Republican candidate will win in a landslide, so long as he/she is able to refrain from skinning and eating a live baby during a televised debate.

rvastar on November 18, 2009 at 3:48 PM

The big question will be whether those independents will swing to the GOP in 2010 or just stay home.

pissed off people tend to vote,and vote in very high numbers.

and we’re pissed. royally.

DrW on November 18, 2009 at 4:01 PM

firepilot on November 18, 2009 at 3:36 PM
Wow that is a nice twist of the facts. I have never seen a Social Conservative that was advocating a large Government, high taxes and a weak defense. Most Social Conservatives are also Fiscal Conservatives. It is the so called Fiscal Conservatives that want us to compromise our Social values that weave from being a “Full” Conservative and hence move into RINO territory. As far as Homosexuality goes, I don’t care what someone does in their bedrooms out of sight, that is between them and God. But it isn’t like that anymore is it? Instead they are teaching our children in public schools that this behavior is acceptable and just. They are parading in our streets and attempting to change our laws and traditions. Just because you are liberal and are happy to see these changes in our society doesn’t mean I have to agree with you or water down my beliefs. I will be fighting for what I believe in, and I am sure you will be doing the same.

SGinNC on November 18, 2009 at 4:01 PM

Democrats! Listen TO ME! You are losing the independents and your only hope is…

MOVE EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT.

That is what the independents want. Trust me. I know what is best for you. Go completely barking marxist.

kurtzz3 on November 18, 2009 at 4:02 PM

I don’t see the house flipping for at least two election cycles. I think the Repubs are not smart enough to pull it off. The Repub establishment are gonna run a bunch of RINOs like NY-23, and the independents are going to stay home, until someone gets the message. It sure won’t be Steele at the RNC….

catlady on November 18, 2009 at 2:23 PM

Sad but true. The genius “insiders” at the GOP will see this as an opportunity to remind everyone that they too hate the Tea Partiers and they want to run a Democratic style government that spends a bit less money than Democrats. And then they’ll be humored by the NY Times and the “popular kids”, they’ll go back to enjoying highly profitable cocktail parties with lobbyists and all will be well again in the Beltway. Morons.

Django on November 18, 2009 at 4:10 PM

Mounting evidence that independent voters have soured on the Democrats is prompting a debate among party officials about what rhetorical and substantive changes are needed to halt the damage.

Changes? I thought we already had that last year?

Only substantive changes in policy could halt the damage to Democrats. But if they only want to make rhetorical changes, bring it on. We could use some extra seats in Congress.

Steve Z on November 18, 2009 at 4:11 PM

Independents looked through the Hope/Change and are finding that Barack ain’t getting the job done.

TN Mom on November 18, 2009 at 4:15 PM

Wow that is a nice twist of the facts. I have never seen a Social Conservative that was advocating a large Government, high taxes and a weak defense. Most Social Conservatives are also Fiscal Conservatives.

Then why were social conservatives such enthusiastic supporters of FDRs New Deal? Why were social conservatives such big supporters of the Democratic Party then too for so long up to somewhat recently? Social Conservatives did not leave the Democratic Party over a difference in economics, but because you all thought the Democratic Party did not have the right social positions.

Oh yeah, didn’t you Social Conservatives foist Jimmy Carter on us? So tell us again why we should trust you all to take the helm of the GOP. That was a stellar choice you all made there. Social Conservatives voted for the Democratic Candidate Jimmy Carter over Gerald Ford overwhemingly. So tell me again how I have my facts wrong that you Social Conservatives have been long time supporters of small government policies and economics?

It is the so called Fiscal Conservatives that want us to compromise our Social values that weave from being a “Full” Conservative and hence move into RINO territory. As far as Homosexuality goes, I don’t care what someone does in their bedrooms out of sight, that is between them and God. But it isn’t like that anymore is it? Instead they are teaching our children in public schools that this behavior is acceptable and just. They are parading in our streets and attempting to change our laws and traditions. Just because you are liberal and are happy to see these changes in our society doesn’t mean I have to agree with you or water down my beliefs. I will be fighting for what I believe in, and I am sure you will be doing the same.

Ha, and now I am liberal?????? And you tell others to get their facts straight. I have said I am for small government, strong defense and low taxes. Tell me one “liberal” who supports that?

Is it your assertion that the traditional platform of the GOP is “Liberal”?. Then again you said that that Social Conservatives have been big supporter of small government, when history shows otherwise. History actually shows that Social Conservatives are fine with big government if its the right social values.

Gerald Ford, Jack Kemp, Barry Goldwater could be resurrected and posting on here, and plenty of you would be telling them they are not real Republicans, and that they are actually just liberals because of supporting small government and low taxes

firepilot on November 18, 2009 at 4:28 PM

“Buh….. buh…… but…… we won……”

I don’t believe the “mandate” had anything to do with fleecing American taxpayers. It was more about the love of Styrofoam Greek columns.

joedoe on November 18, 2009 at 4:32 PM

The big question will be whether those independents will swing to the GOP in 2010 or just stay home.

We ain’t staying home. It will soon be time to take out the trash.

Guardian on November 18, 2009 at 4:35 PM

I was watching O’Rilley last night and he had that kid on who does not want to say the pledge in school because there is no liberty and justice for all.
That is beside the point, but the two lawyers he had on telling him that it is perfectly legal for the boy to do that made me think.

They said that the government cannot COMPEL him to say the pledge. That the government cannot compel you to “say” anything. If that is true my question to my husband was then they also cannot COMPEL you to BUY anything either then can they.

What say you?

patriotparty1 on November 18, 2009 at 4:56 PM

I think the only way the DEMS have a chance next year is if Obamacare DOES NOT pass; because if it does pass against the will of the people, heaven help them…

Static21 on November 18, 2009 at 4:58 PM

Having put down the O-bong SoCal Barry supporters are finally tasting the O-bong water. Bitter & skanky, not unlike the potus & fist lady.

BHO Jonestown on November 18, 2009 at 5:28 PM

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