Politics Daily: How Palin could win the nomination

posted at 4:31 pm on November 16, 2009 by Allahpundit

She told Oprah that it’s “not on my radar screen right now,” but … c’mon. It’s on everyone’s radar screen. Walter Shapiro games out the path to victory: Sweep to victory in Iowa on the evangelical vote, concede New Hampshire to Romney, then throw everything she’s got at the deep-red linchpin of South Carolina. Win there and you’ve got big mo heading into winner-take-all Florida; if Huck, Mitt, and a few others are still hanging around by then, they might split the anti-Palin vote several ways and she could squeak to victory with less than 40 percent, giving her likely unstoppable momentum the rest of the way. Easy peasy!

Except for this. From ABC/WaPo’s new poll:

palin-def

By comparison, only 42 percent said they definitely wouldn’t vote for the highly polarizing Hillary Clinton in July 2006. Those “definitely not” numbers will soften up a bit over time, but (a) it’s not, shall we say, optimal to start with a clear majority of the electorate dug in against you, and (b) I’m surprised at how small the “definitely” faction is. Statistically, it makes sense: If 40 percent of the country considers itself conservative and, say, 15-20 percent of those people are devoted Sarahcuda supporters, then you’re right in the ballpark, but it’s a testament to how vocal Palin fans are in defending her that their numbers seem a lot stronger than they actually are. More ABC:

Today 43 percent of Americans express a favorable opinion of Palin overall, while 52 percent see her unfavorably. Favorability is the most basic measure of a public figure’s popularity; in politics, where majorities win, it’s trouble when it goes negative, as it’s been for Palin since October 2008…

Palin moreover fails a basic hurdle on the road to the White House, were she to choose to take it: Just 38 percent of Americans see her as qualified to serve as president; 60 percent think she’s not qualified for the job

Just under a quarter of Republicans rule out supporting her for president; that rises to half of independents and three-quarters of Democrats. And 61 percent of Republicans see Palin as qualified for the presidency – an underwhelming score in her own party, and one that falls to 37 percent of independents and 22 percent among Democrats.

The silver lining: Some of these numbers are actually an improvement over recent polls. PPP’s latest temperature check on 2012 had her favorables at 36/51, with independents split 34/48. ABC’s poll, by contrast, has her up to 45 percent approval among indies, a number that’s bound to rise as the backlash to Hopenchange statism pulls more of them towards the right. Maybe the book buzz is starting to polish her image? As for that 60 percent figure on qualifications, it too is an improvement (a double-digit improvement, in fact) over CNN’s notoriously gruesome poll result from last month. The bad news? CNN re-polled the question this week to coincide with her book launch and the current number who say she’s unqualified is still 70 percent, with only 29 percent of independents bucking the trend. (A majority of Republicans, 54/44, think she’s ready to serve, but 63 percent say the same about Mitt and Huck by comparison.)

Long story short, as things stand, she’s a threat to win the GOP nomination but an almost certain loser in the general election unless economic conditions have deteriorated to the point where any Republican would be a threat to knock off Obama. But if any Republican would stand a good chance of winning, why would the GOP nominate the one Republican who would galvanize the Democrats in opposition? The more beatable Obama looks, the greater the temptation will be to nominate an inoffensive “electable” candidate like Romney and make the election a referendum on The One’s record; the less beatable Obama looks, the greater the temptation to roll the dice and nominate a lightning rod like Palin who can draw media attention away from Obama. Exit question one: Er, why would she (or anyone else) want to run if Obama doesn’t look beatable, i.e. if the economy starts coming back and unemployment begins to decrease? Exit question two: If Obama does look beatable, what can the RNC do to tilt the table away from Palin and towards some more “electable” candidates? Follow the Shapiro link and read the end for a few ideas.

Update: Ah, I missed this earlier. Even more evidence, this time via Rasmussen, that the book might be helping her rebound: Among likely voters, her favorables are 51/43. That’s starkly different from the poll of polls at Pollster.com, but likely voters are ultimately the only ones who matter.


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Comments

That’s “MS. MOMMY” to those vultures…

jana on November 16, 2009 at 5:31 PM

or Ms. Jackson if your nasty.

MarkTheGreat on November 17, 2009 at 8:33 AM

LOL, ALL REPRESENTATIVES GET ELECTED WITH AN AVG APPROVAL RATE OF 20’s PERCENTAGE.

LOL, PELOSI EVEN GET ELECTED.

TO QUOTE MS, THE “RED_DAIPER_DOPER_BABIES”, THEY CLEARLY NEED SOME NEW DAIPER SINCE IT MUST BE OVERFLOWING BY NOW.

mooseburger on November 17, 2009 at 12:58 PM

Hey there all you “independent” voters,
You have a problem. You are going to be faced with voting for Obooboo the ‘Won’ and his second (and possibly never ending) term.
 
There’s no second chance, guess, or any other escape. If you love your country, who will you vote for?
 
There is only one person who can possibly lead the resurrection!
 
I will stand with Sarah and FREEDOM!

Blacksmith8 on November 17, 2009 at 1:09 PM

Sarah is on Rush RIGHT NOW

Blacksmith8 on November 17, 2009 at 1:12 PM

I’m not interested in Moderates or Dems or any of these guys.

I would also like to know the location of a conservative blog that isn’t Anti-palin.

This one is.

AnninCA on November 17, 2009 at 1:18 PM

Seriously, those of you in the “know.”

This blog is anti-Palin.

I don’t relate.

Please advise.

AnninCA on November 17, 2009 at 1:37 PM

http://2012-today.blogspot.com/

walker_ro on November 17, 2009 at 1:40 PM

SARAH PALIN 2012!

Unless a better new CONSERVATIVE candidate, preferably ALPHA-MALE, shows up. The existing male ones are either RINO, liar, or BETA-MALE. Except for McDonnell, there’s no one in sight.

So, at the moment, I’ll stick with SARAH PALIN.

TheAlamos on November 17, 2009 at 2:14 PM

Prepare to have a Mondale ’84 showing laid on you if Palin ever got the nom, which she never will.

Moesart on November 17, 2009 at 2:42 PM

Prepare to have a Mondale ‘84 showing laid on you if Palin ever got the nom, which she never will.

Moesart on November 17, 2009 at 2:42 PM

Prepare to have a Al Landon ’32 showing on you if Romney/Pawlenty/Hucakbee ever got the nom, which they never will.

Norwegian on November 17, 2009 at 3:55 PM

After seeing the accuracy of “likely voters” polls, why would anyone waste their time on the lefty spinner polls?

marklmail on November 17, 2009 at 5:47 PM

Allah, honey, you’re dreamin if you really think Sarah can win the nomination in 2012 at this point. She’s on her way to being a right-wing celebrity/operative/fund raiser, and there’s nothing wrong with that. But if you really believe she holds any more promise than that with the GOP, then you need a long vacation in the sun.

Webutante on November 17, 2009 at 7:23 PM

I’m sure it will depend upon what people want in terms of change, if any. Sarah is already mapping out her own policy statements.

If people agree, then her polls are going to continue to rise.

AnninCA on November 17, 2009 at 8:26 PM

Everyone is Focusing on Personality, Fluff…..We got the Obama Personality with Flawed Policy and TOTUS speeches of Fluff……..Palin has Policy, Americanism, more guts than BHO and she relates to Americans in flyover Country…..not just to Chicago.
Forget the Soap Opera of a Black President……Palin is a Non Politician DC outsider.
She’s got Grit.
She scares the Media and Democrats alike……..She can shoot a varmit…..DC has plenty.

JayTee on November 17, 2009 at 10:04 PM

She scares the Media and Democrats alike……..She can shoot a varmit…..DC has plenty.

JayTee on November 17, 2009 at 10:04 PM

Yeah, right….LOL. Like it’s all that simple, she will ever be President.

The world is flat, Jesus rode on a dinosaur and they are pulling In God We Trust from all of our coins….

D-o-n-‘t t-h-i-n-k s-o….

AprilOrit on November 17, 2009 at 11:23 PM

Allah, honey, you’re dreamin if you really think Sarah can win the nomination in 2012 at this point. She’s on her way to being a right-wing celebrity/operative/fund raiser, and there’s nothing wrong with that. But if you really believe she holds any more promise than that with the GOP, then you need a long vacation in the sun.

Webutante on November 17, 2009 at 7:23 PM

Can we get a hell yeah on that….

AprilOrit on November 17, 2009 at 11:28 PM

If a person must be QUALIFIED then Palin surly has a chance.
Obama was elected.

TomLawler on November 18, 2009 at 8:01 AM