Gallup: Republicans edge Democrats on generic Congressional ballot
posted at 10:12 am on November 11, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
Bill Clinton just got done explaining to Congressional Democrats that the party lost control of Congress in 1994 because they didn’t pass the Hillarycare takeover of the American health-care industry. Gallup gives a clearer reminder today why Democrats got shoved out of power fifteen years ago, and why they risk losing power today. Republicans lead for the first time in their generic Congressional ballot, with a six-point shift from last month putting them four points over the Democrats. But the real action is with the independents:
Republicans have moved ahead of Democrats by 48% to 44% among registered voters in the latest update on Gallup’s generic congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, after trailing by six points in July and two points last month.
The Nov. 5-8 update comes just after Republican victories in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, which saw Republicans replace Democrats as governors of those states.
As was the case in last Tuesday’s gubernatorial elections, independents are helping the Republicans’ cause. In the latest poll, independent registered voters favor the Republican candidate by 52% to 30%. Both parties maintain similar loyalty from their bases, with 91% of Democratic registered voters preferring the Democratic candidate and 93% of Republican voters preferring the Republican.
The gap among independents widened from a dead heat in July to a 22-point lead for the GOP. It’s not difficult to draw a line between this rapid shift and the start of the health-care debate. The flight of independents from the Democrats accelerated at the same time that the details of the taxes and mandates of ObamaCare became known, which has driven independents towards the GOP as the only hope of stopping a runaway Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Barack Obama.
This exposes Bill Clinton’s conceited revisionism. American voters didn’t reject Democrats in 1994 because they didn’t pass HillaryCare. Voters gave Democrats the boot for even considering HillaryCare. Even Bill Clinton himself didn’t believe differently at the time. He responded to the massive losses in 1994 by triangulating back to the center, not by getting even more radically leftist.
Republicans won in 1994 by focusing on core principles of fiscal conservatism and limited government, principles that appealed to independents frightened by the statist policies of runaway Democrats. Obama, Pelosi, and Reid have essentially created all the conditions of 1994 again for the GOP to use to give them the boot, at least in the House. The Republican Party has to be smart enough to recognize that and seize the moment.
And this time, they’d better stick to those principles, too.
Blowback
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*gulp*
SouthernGent on November 11, 2009 at 10:15 AM
And this is Gallup, which means that the gap is even wider.
wildcat84 on November 11, 2009 at 10:15 AM
22 points. Some “edge,” huh?
Bat Chain Puller on November 11, 2009 at 10:16 AM
So true.
publiuspen on November 11, 2009 at 10:16 AM
An argument for term limits.
BuckeyeSam on November 11, 2009 at 10:17 AM
Rasmussen has the gap at +6 for the GOP in a poll yesterday.
Mark1971 on November 11, 2009 at 10:17 AM
so do democrats change course or grab as much power as possible before they are destroyed?
rob verdi on November 11, 2009 at 10:17 AM
And this time, they’d better stick to those principles, too.
Yep.
VegasRick on November 11, 2009 at 10:17 AM
by the way the GOP looks pretty good considering its been called a “rump” party.
rob verdi on November 11, 2009 at 10:18 AM
Rasmussen has
-10 on the passion
GOP up 6 on the congressional ballot
46 approval/53 disapproval for Barry – I think that’s the lowest approval/highest disapproval yet.
:)
gophergirl on November 11, 2009 at 10:18 AM
The demorats will respond by plowing ahead with their agenda, attempting to crush everything in their path because they know what Americans really want.
Bishop on November 11, 2009 at 10:18 AM
Obama and the Dems reacted to last week’s election results by pushing even harder on health care. It makes one wonder how they’ll react to the inevitable drubbing they’re gonna take in 2010.
Doughboy on November 11, 2009 at 10:18 AM
More townhalls for the holidays!
BuckeyeSam on November 11, 2009 at 10:19 AM
Bad news. Fortunately, swing voters that can be lost in ten months can be won back.
And we have one big advantage this time — voters remember what the Bush years were like. And they weren’t “morning in America”.
Bleeds Blue on November 11, 2009 at 10:19 AM
2010 cannot get here fast enough. I.m stocking up on popcorn already.
VegasRick on November 11, 2009 at 10:19 AM
I think it hit 45 once after the “police acted stupidly” remark. I expect it to be below 45 before the year is through.
Mark1971 on November 11, 2009 at 10:21 AM
Yes, I agree. That line by Bill was a whopper.
AnninCA on November 11, 2009 at 10:21 AM
This is the BIG tent! This tent can even accomodate illiberals that are least willing to allow others that disagree with thim to live under their laws at the state level.
- You want gay marriage? Fine, win a referrendum or legislative victory at the state level.
- You want socialized health care? Fine, pass a [stupid] lay like MA.
- You want carbon caps? Fine, move to CA.
- You want to fund illegals? Fine, move to CA.
- You want to tax the rich? Fine, move to CA.
WashJeff on November 11, 2009 at 10:21 AM
I am of course no Independent, and it’s hard to get into the mindset of one. But I speculate that they are repelled as much by the Democrats’ style of government as well as its substance. Watching Pelosi and Reid in action, it must be obvious to all but the most hyperpartisan leftwingers that the Democrats are not about building a broad based coalition to negotiate and solve any particular problem. While I can understand the Democrats operating that way, they have gone completely overboard in that cynical “I won” direction, and I suspect this is a big red flag to most Independents.
jwolf on November 11, 2009 at 10:21 AM
With zero, reid and pelosy in charge it has become “mourning in America”.
VegasRick on November 11, 2009 at 10:22 AM
The Bush years were not about “conservatism and limited government.” Quite the opposite in many cases.
Leave me alone and I will leave you alone.
WashJeff on November 11, 2009 at 10:22 AM
How did MSNBC miss this trend? lol
joedoe on November 11, 2009 at 10:23 AM
Actually I think a lot of people are looking back at the Bush years and thinking “hey those weren’t so bad afterall”.
gophergirl on November 11, 2009 at 10:23 AM
Bill is trying to make sure that ‘Teh One’ has only one term so Hillary has another opportunity to run before she’s too senile to be coherent. Bill knows that if the demCong press farther left it will inflame the public enough to give the dim dems the boot along with ‘The Pretender-in-Charge’, and the reps will screw it up in 4 years so Hillary gets another bite at the apple.
Go Bill, go!
belad on November 11, 2009 at 10:23 AM
Time for the Republicans (that means you, Speaker Boehner) to start running on the platform of shutting down ObamaCare. This will also have the advantage of demoralizing the Dems who are on the line right now. Why walk the plank for nothing?
Clinton is right about one thing. No matter what the Dems do, they’re screwed. But that’s only because they have become a frivolous, single-issue party. Healthcare 24/7, screw the economy, the wars, etc.
Some think that once healthcare is passed (assuming it is), that Obama will “pivot” to focus on the economy. Yeah, right. If healthcare passes, Obama will resume his four-year golf game. The Democratic Socialist Party is a mile wide and an inch deep.
Amateurs!
EMD on November 11, 2009 at 10:23 AM
Now’s the time when we must purge the party of all the Scozzy dem-lites and rock on to victory.
Core principles and honesty will draw and retain the independents.
Palin 2012.
1921 C DRUM on November 11, 2009 at 10:24 AM
Good luck with that. Swing voters are only swing voters when both parties overlap near the center. The Dems have abandoned the center in their actions, and false words to the contrary will not be well received.
ElectricPhase on November 11, 2009 at 10:25 AM
WHile they weren’t perfect, it was sunshine and light compared to what Obama is putting us through.
MarkTheGreat on November 11, 2009 at 10:25 AM
I am suspicious, too, since he ended his “pep” talk by saying, “My sec. of state is calling.” *haha
AnninCA on November 11, 2009 at 10:25 AM
The demise of the GOP has been greatly exaggerated, it would seem. The Fat Lady is warming up with a few well-chosen scales and arpeggios.
princetrumpet on November 11, 2009 at 10:25 AM
“We won!” –Nancy
What might she say next November?
NebCon on November 11, 2009 at 10:26 AM
That fairly well sums up why I am now Independent.
AnninCA on November 11, 2009 at 10:26 AM
The GOP will have to be more forecful in making their case in 2010 than they were in 1994 because of the Republican Congress’ legacy of spending when they were voted out in 2006.
The GOP hadn’t been in full control of Congress going into the ’94 vote since 1954, so there was nothing the Democrats could really hang over them, other than to attempt their normal demonization. That’s not the case this time, while on the other side, many of the same people near the top of the Republican leadership in 2006 are still there in 2009 and will be the ones presumably in charge of the GOP’s strategy in 2010.
Those people are going to have to show sometime in the next year that they actually will do something different if they’re put back in power, instead of running on a platform of basically “We’re not as bad as Harry Reid or Nancy Pelosi.” The Republicans will likely still make gains even if they do that, but they’re not going to energize enough people to get what they want, which is control of the House and at least close to control of the Senate.
jon1979 on November 11, 2009 at 10:26 AM
Which explains why Deeds was blown out and Corzine lost in his blue state. But you just keep believing that what America wants is massive government takeover of our vital interests, in fact I encourage you to contact your reps and push immigration, gun control and another stimulus.
Bishop on November 11, 2009 at 10:26 AM
Indeed. Speaking of which:
DeMint Introduces “Term Limits for All” Constitutional Amendment
Amendment would limit every House member to 3 terms, every Senator to 2 terms
Rae on November 11, 2009 at 10:26 AM
All together now…..RAAAAAAACISTS
angryed on November 11, 2009 at 10:27 AM
Voters will also be aware of Obama’s first two years. And double digit unemployment, massive deficit spending, huge government entitlements, and heavy taxation will be a tough sell come election time.
Doughboy on November 11, 2009 at 10:27 AM
What up?
a capella on November 11, 2009 at 10:27 AM
If we’re lucky…”I pass the gavel to Mr. John Boehner”.
sherry on November 11, 2009 at 10:27 AM
I am an Independent, I only intend on voting for Conservative candidates so note to Kay Bailey Hutchinson aka George W Bush water carrier, don’t count on my vote. Anyone checked her voting record, she likes that TARP she voted for confirmation of the tax cheat…I could go on. If Hutchinson gets the nomination for Texas Governor’s seat -Republican. I will be looking strong and hard at the Democrat candidate.
Dr Evil on November 11, 2009 at 10:28 AM
And this pud-sucker who lied his way into the White House ain’t exactly Ronald Reagan….sadly, he’s not even Jimmuh Cahtuh.
dmh0667 on November 11, 2009 at 10:29 AM
Let’s see… an “independent” who didn’t like GOP spending habits will vote for a Democrat. Democrats outspend the GOP by a factor of about 3-1. Sure, makes perfect sense.
princetrumpet on November 11, 2009 at 10:30 AM
If that happens, Boehner should have a can of Lysol spray and say, “The germs of liberalism have been stopped!”
SouthernGent on November 11, 2009 at 10:30 AM
Seeing as how the vermin on the left never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity, I say they’ll grab. They are already losing the independents and will have only their radical fringe to appease.
May their defeat be weapons-grade, world-class and total.
Palin 2012.
1921 C DRUM on November 11, 2009 at 10:31 AM
You forgot to mention jailtime/heavy fine for those deciding not to buy health insurance. There’s a winner.
a capella on November 11, 2009 at 10:31 AM
The Dems aren’t winning these swing voters back unless the economy shows some major improvements — and I mean genuine recovery, not WH and MSM cheerleading saying another month of higher unemployment is really a secret sign of the mythical recovery.
As for the Bush years, economically they really were “morning in America” for the most part. Let’s see: about 5% unemployment under Bush and a Republican Congress, vs. 10% unemployment with Obama and a Democratic Congress. Gee, that’s a really tough call, huh?
jwolf on November 11, 2009 at 10:31 AM
Something for y’all to remember… Don’t just have your eyes on the Congressional prize. Most state legislatures have elections in 2010. Get Republicans in control of as many legislatures as possible.
2010 is a census year.
Congressional redistricting will be done by the legislatures elected in 2010.
Get the GOP in charge of drawing the lines and throwing as many Pelosicrats together in one district as possible.
either orr on November 11, 2009 at 10:32 AM
Voters will be rightly skeptical about a Party that claims to have turned over a new leaf since the last time — not so long ago — that they were in power. The credibility’s not quite there yet.
M
I believe that Hot Air, Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck have all declared war on centrist Republicans, so it’s possible that you’ll not be well positioned to take advantage of that (alleged) weakness.
Bleeds Blue on November 11, 2009 at 10:32 AM
Another thing to remember — for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. The more they grab, the more that can be turned against them.
Jail time for Waxman, Pelosi, etc.?
either orr on November 11, 2009 at 10:33 AM
I wish I had more confidence in this.
.
Now is the worst it’s getting for the Dems. The strategy is to get as much as they can, as early as they can, and it’s quite clever. The further left they push, the fewer votes they receive, so they’re being ultra-efficient in passing Obamacare.
.
Leading up to the mid-terms, they will spend all of 2010 pushing more popular legislation–a middle-class tax break, for example. And the electorate’s memory is short.
InDubly on November 11, 2009 at 10:34 AM
I have commented before on this. The session of Congress after the 2010 elections will be a dangerous time for America. The democrats will have lost in humiliating fashion, and will ram any and everything through they can in that lame duck session. They have no shame.
SouthernGent on November 11, 2009 at 10:34 AM
OT: The president is heading to China soon. Does anyone else find this offensive or it is just me?
http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/slideshow/photo//091111/ids_photos_wl/r1535946046.jpg/
milwife88 on November 11, 2009 at 10:35 AM
O/T, but some very damaging tapes are now released on Jerry Brown, which will very likely kick up questions about his run for governor in CA. Independents, for sure, are not going to like what they hear.
AnninCA on November 11, 2009 at 10:35 AM
from your lips to God’s ears, Ed
cmsinaz on November 11, 2009 at 10:35 AM
Meanwhile, who dropped the dime on John Edwards…
Mr. Joe on November 11, 2009 at 10:36 AM
Yeah and I think Slick Willie is setting the trap for the Kenyan and his followers to set up his FBI file stealing wife. Don’t forget ever that this sneak is the only one that knows what is……..is. They have not figured that one out at Harvard or SEIU or ACORN yet!
bluegrass on November 11, 2009 at 10:39 AM
Live boy or dead girl?
1921 C DRUM on November 11, 2009 at 10:39 AM
Can we please NOT jump to conclusions over Clinton’s all alleged revisionism. I FEEL he just might be suffering from post-Presidential stress.
Caper29 on November 11, 2009 at 10:39 AM
Wouldn’t it be a hoot if we found out that centrist Republicans don’t like health care rationing and Muslim terrorism?
a capella on November 11, 2009 at 10:39 AM
Another big reason for the 94 takeover was the passage of the Assault Weapons ban that passed in Sept 94. That got a lot of gun owners attention and Bill has in the past said that it was a major factor in losing the house. So far the dems have run from the issue this time.
RobD on November 11, 2009 at 10:40 AM
To say he is a little ackward doing a Texas Two Step might invoke racial threatsz from the other side.
bluegrass on November 11, 2009 at 10:41 AM
Things are looking up :)
ornery_independent on November 11, 2009 at 10:41 AM
I used to think term limits were a good idea until I realized that the survival instinct might be a necessity for keeping Obamacare, Cap and Trade, and Amnesty from becoming a reality.
mazer9 on November 11, 2009 at 10:41 AM
The Republican party needs to wise up and get rid of Steele. Sorry, but this guy is a jackass. Whites are scared of him? Really? He is making Biden look intelligent. We need a leader with courage and conviction, not someone bashing Rush, Beck and others whose opinions carry weight with conservatives. The time for Newt, McCain, Steele, et al is over. Buh Bye.
search4truth on November 11, 2009 at 10:43 AM
Am I the only one that sees what Bill Clinton is up to? He is not trolling the halls of the Hart Senate building because he thinks this is a great thing for the country. He wants this thing to pass because he knows it is political suicide for President Obama. Clinton knows damn well that ObamaCare is the poison pill for the Obama administration, making re-election very difficult.
A one-term Obama = Clinton was a better president.
A one-term Obama = easier for Hillary to run and win in 2016.
Midnightrain on November 11, 2009 at 10:43 AM
Only if extreme fiscal restraint is practiced, because that’s what’s losing the independents.
What do you think the chances are that this administration and this Congress will start practicing extreme fiscal restraint anytime soon?
That’s right. Zero. It is spend, spend, spend until all the liberal dreams of expanded government are realized. It is patently obvious that Dems are totally ignoring the concerns of voters as they bulldoze their way to achieving Obama’s big government agenda.
If people *liked* what you were doing, the polls would show it. You guys are hosed for 2010 and probably beyond.
Missy on November 11, 2009 at 10:44 AM
This ties what he had on 9/2, so it is the lowest/highest but not the first time he has hit those numbers.
I’m suprised that was not noted in the analysis.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history
Joe Caps on November 11, 2009 at 10:44 AM
They’ve declared war on liberal Republicans. Social moderates are welcome in the party, as long as they’re fiscal conservatives. That’s why we’re cool with Rudy Guiliani.
But DooDoo Scuzzy-flavor and Charlie Crist back massive spending bills like porkulus. The former also supports card check, while the latter supports crap-and-betrayed. People like that have no place in the Republican Party.
Doughboy on November 11, 2009 at 10:44 AM
sorry i didn’t use the link tags there, i thought that was fixed in the word press update…oh well.
Joe Caps on November 11, 2009 at 10:45 AM
How many delegates did he get?
Bleeds Blue on November 11, 2009 at 10:46 AM
Agreed on the credibility part, but it does not mean you do not start. To the vast majority of American voters. The GOp members that will, hopefully, deliver this message are “new”.
Hopefully voters will take the chance on a GOP under new leadership, than a Democrat party with a leadership that you know what you are going to get, a rapid expanding federal government.
WashJeff on November 11, 2009 at 10:47 AM
The electorate is fickle, and I’m finding that those who backed Obama and the Dems are not happy with them at all. I guess in the eyes of abusive libs who post here, having only insults and no real ideas, those people are more treasonous than their guy Hasan.
There are going to be a lot of surprises a year from now. People like simplesimon, the other libs who waste their time here, Pelosi, and Obama are going to be quite unhappy.
Liam on November 11, 2009 at 10:48 AM
Voters will tend to vote on current events, not past events.
ICBM on November 11, 2009 at 10:48 AM
I’ll go for curtain number 2, Monte.
Del Dolemonte on November 11, 2009 at 10:49 AM
None that I’m aware of. He ran a lousy campaign. So did Fred Thompson who’s a huge favorite of conservatives. I never said conservatives control the fate of the GOP. Like any of us actually wanted McCain as the nominee? There’s a reason we’ve “declared war” on the people running the show.
Doughboy on November 11, 2009 at 10:50 AM
only thing left to do is pass another $10 TRILLION in garbage bills……
LEGACY!
SDarchitect on November 11, 2009 at 10:51 AM
My sentiments precisely.
mr.blacksheep on November 11, 2009 at 10:51 AM
Can I ask my wife? She’s the boss.
thomasaur on November 11, 2009 at 10:51 AM
So when the Dems lose, will that be Bush’s fault too, kid?
getalife.
Del Dolemonte on November 11, 2009 at 10:52 AM
Hell, many are looking back at the Clinton years and saying the same thing.
Del Dolemonte on November 11, 2009 at 10:54 AM
Oh what I would give to have Jimmuh in the WH right now. As much of a bumbling fool as he was, I think he still sorta kinda liked his country.
angryed on November 11, 2009 at 10:54 AM
We still need something like a leader to carry this off. Old go along to get along RINO republican elites are still out there.
JIMV on November 11, 2009 at 10:55 AM
Too bad for the democratards, they look back fondly at those years, given how bad the socialists have screwed things up in the past 10 months or so.
Can you think of a single thing they’ve gotten right since January. Anything that even remotely justifies them having any sort of leadership role?
lorien1973 on November 11, 2009 at 10:55 AM
Well…Pelosi and now Billy Clinton suggest the left and Dems are winning!!
cblesz on November 11, 2009 at 10:57 AM
The independents voted for Dems because of the war in 2006. Had the Iraq war not been an issue I strongly believe the GOP would have kept Congress in 2006 and maybe even 2008.
Iraq is no longer an issue. If anything it’s a negative for the Dems since it’s almost 4 years later and they haven’t ended the war like they promised they would in 2006.
Independents never voted FOR Pelosi/Reid. They voted against Iraq. And in 2010 I just don’t see them voting to stay the course with Nancy/Harry. And this would be the case with or without Obama….IMO.
angryed on November 11, 2009 at 10:58 AM
The political landscape is very bumpy for both parties, frankly. There is NO doubt in my own mind that Bush was fiscally irresponsible. He did not fund the war properly, which contributed a lot to the deficit. He squandered the GOP label for fiscal conservativism.
It’s equally obvious that Democrats in DC backed Obama precisely to usher back in a pre-Clinton spend and tax program. And they have shocked everyone by not adjusting to the reality that we simply cannot afford this. They have earned the wrath of the conservatives. They are acting irresponsibly.
As an Independent, I’ll be listening to absolutely every candidate I get to vote for on their solutions. Nobody with a general agenda will get my vote. I want answers that are actually relevant.
AnninCA on November 11, 2009 at 10:58 AM
But, but, but, didn’t all the liberal political strategists say that the Republican Party was doomed unless they embraced RINO’s and found more Arlen Specter’s?
joedoe on November 11, 2009 at 11:00 AM
Waterlooooo
MobileVideoEngineer on November 11, 2009 at 11:02 AM
Congress is responsible for funding not the President and GWB had to trade a lot to receive the funding that he was able squeeze out of them.
thomasaur on November 11, 2009 at 11:04 AM
David Frum is the hardest working man in show business. Seriously, how badly must it suck to be him.
Russ
russcote on November 11, 2009 at 11:04 AM
Bleeds Blue on November 11, 2009 at 10:19 AM
Too bad for the democratards, they look back fondly at those years, given how bad the socialists have screwed things up in the past 10 months or so.
Can you think of a single thing they’ve gotten right since January. Anything that even remotely justifies them having any sort of leadership role?
lorien1973 on November 11, 2009 at 10:55 AM
You know, saved the banking system, got the economy growing again, reinforced the troops in Afghanistan, extending health care to more kids, helping women fight against pay discrimination, saving the car industry. And it’s only been ten months!
Bleeds Blue on November 11, 2009 at 11:05 AM
Good analysis.
Liam on November 11, 2009 at 11:05 AM
Wow….There is no way these numbers turn around for the Democrats in time for the 2010 midterms.
Obama’s presidency will for intent and purposes end on November 2, 2010. After that date he will have two choices:
1. Move sharply to the right in order to save his presidency
2. Stay put on the left and lose in 2012.
Norwegian on November 11, 2009 at 11:10 AM
jwolf on November 11, 2009 at 11:11 AM
Imagine what the numbers would show now if the Republicans actually had made a case for their own programs.
Attila (Pillage Idiot) on November 11, 2009 at 11:14 AM
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