Think of the headlines – Nobel Peace Prize-winning US President launches invasion of Venezuela. Makes perfect sense, right?

The only question that remains is why The Fat Warmonger in the Palace would be talking about this.”
Ouch..

“Presidente, may we have the bullets for our rifles now AND the gas masks? The Columbians, they are getting very close and the smell of sulfur from your big fat butt is quite overwhelming …”
.
Seriously, why does El Presidente think that wearing multi-colored scarves, a beret, and a parrot are folk hero attire?

mmmmmmm…..NO!

He’s basically got 3 years (and copious amounts of Russian arms) to plow through Colombia, why does anyone think he’d stop there?

There’s nothing of strategic importance to be had in Colombia, rather, across their northern border lies a strategic asset he could use to squeeze the nuts of the rest of the world, particularly the US.

Uggo The Dwarf has oil, and that makes for a run of the mill Third World strongman, but possession, or at least the installation of a puppet regime he can easily bully into co-operation on matters of usage; who’s ships go through and who’s don’t, while taking a cut of Canal revenues as protection money, would give him affective control over a major global commercial asset, not to mention a major U.S. strategic asset.

Elections have consequences…

He wouldn’t do enough, but he wouldn’t do nothing. Therefore, Columbia is probably not too worried.

He wants the US out of Colombia, and Chavez apparently believes he has an American President he can bully towards that goal:

And he is probably right too.

Nit to mention the short shrift Obama has inflicted on Brown and the “not-so-special relationship with britain. Or say the abandonment of the Czechs & Poles. Actually just about anyone who yearns for freedom from oppression can expect a cold shoulder from the Obama administration, From Iran to Myanmar.

Obama cozies up with dictators the world over and provides cover suppression of dissidents. It harkens to mind ye old adage, birds of a feather….

If it walks like a Mussolini, ands it talks like a Lenin, it is probably an Obama.

The first is that, although Chavez may be angling to get the US out of South America, he has two other matters on his plate as well.

The first is that his domestic popularity is dropping like a stone. This is probably because they can’t keep the lights on or provide basic consumer goods to Venezuelans…cooking oil, milk, eggs etc are all in short supply. One big reason is that Colombia is a bit of a “bread-basket” and supplies a lot of these things to Venezuela…as Chavez has cut imports, the food supply has gone down (btw chack out the rate of inflation in Venezuela). He probably thinks a little conflict with Colombia will boost his popularity (a la the Argentine junta that invaded the Falklands/Malvinas). This is unlikely because the Venezuelan and Colombian people actually like each other.

The second issue Chavez has is territorial. If you look on a map, at the north coast of Colombia you will notice that Colombian territory includes the north side of the Gulf of Venezuela. This is a desert area called La Guajira (it is extremely beautiful, by the way, for anyone wanting a nature vacation). It is a strategic area because it is on one side of the access from Lake Maracaibo to the sea…Lake Maracaibo is where a lot of Venezuelan oil fields are. The Venezuelan Miliary regularly carries out war games about taking this territory. There is suspicion that Chavez has, for a number of years, been angling for a way to occupy this territory.

The relative strength of the Colombian and Venezuelan militaries should make improbable any armed conflict. Colombia’s armed forces number up to 400,000 when you include all branches. Further, because they have a form of national service, there are thousands of trained Colombians not presently in the armed forces who could be called up.

The professionalism of the Colombian armed forces is a big advantage. Although a lot of the 400,000 are conscripts doing their national service (or social service as they call it), there is a large core of professional soldiers who are well trained and experienced. The Venezuelans, on the other hand, are a corrupt barracks army.

The best example came last year when Chavez was rattling the sabre. He threatened to send troops to the border and in fact dispatched some armoured units…it was a fiasco. They have no knowledge of logistics. This is the other big advantage of the Colombians…they have great experience in getting from Point A to Point Z and anywhere in between. They get artillery pieces into mountainous jungles. On a moment’s notice they can land a company of jungle troops into a jungle or a desert. At Night. Silently. And effectively.

The Colombians are no offensive threat to Venezuela…it is worth noting that although they have acquired some re-furbished Kfirs, the newest and most modern aircraft in their airforce are Super Tucanos…propellor driven. They are, however, a mortal defensive threat to Venezuela and, unless he is allowing hubris to overcome his judgement (uh oh) Chavez will rattle his sabre and nothing else.

Chavez just wants free coke.

Daggett on November 9, 2009 at 1:23 PM

Send him an explosive laden Sprite.

“The empire is more threatening than ever,” the former paratrooper warned. “Don’t make a mistake, Mr Obama, by ordering an attack against Venezuela by way of Colombia.” Such a war would set the whole continent alight, he cautioned.

Have any of Chavez’s friends spoken up in public asking him to keep them out of it?

Brazil.

Toss into the mix the extreme lack of “bloodied” soldiers in Venezuela, who are about equivalent to the smartly trained and led Iraqi forces of 1990 and 2003 (who, btw, were armed with some pretty good Soviet gear, which lasted all of about 8 hours).

Give Colombia some good intel, a few ELINT assets and a Patriot battery….Chavez will be defanged in about oh….overnight.

Colombia’s military is far superior and it’s got years of experience fighting the drug cartels, which are more ruthless than anything the Venezuelan army has ever encountered.

TXUS on November 9, 2009 at 1:50 PM

Not that I disagree, but a little Googling shows that Venezuela has a significantly superior air force to Columbia. Venezuela has F-16s, SU-30s, and a bunch of support aircraft. Columbia’s main tactical aircraft appear to be the A-37 Dragonfly and UH-1s. Based on that I’d be really concerned for Columbia.

Disclaimer: This is based on 5 whole minutes of Google intelligence gathering, and whether Venezuela has a clue how to use air power.

TXUS on November 9, 2009 at 2:19 PM

Hmmm… anyone know anything about Columbias arms industrys??? ie, do they have any? I know Venezuela has its own arms factories.

“IF” Chavez could manage to start a two front war, and keep Columbia from supply… he “may” stand a chance…

Just gaming out the possibilities…