AP: Recovery? What recovery?

The AP has been trying hard to sell the idea of recovery over the last few weeks, but even the AP can’t spin double-digit unemployment.  In a piece published last night, they took a decidedly pessimistic tone in reporting the accelerating pace of job losses, using the somewhat ironic headline “What recovery?”

Just when it was beginning to look a little better, the economy relapsed Friday with a return to double-digit unemployment for only the second time since World War II and warnings that next year will be even worse than previously thought.

The jobless rate rocketed to 10.2 percent in October, the highest since early 1983, dealing a psychological blow to Americans as they prepare holiday shopping lists. It was another worse-than-expected report casting a shadow over the struggling recovery.

President Barack Obama called it “a sobering number that underscores the economic challenges that lie ahead.” He signed a measure to extend unemployment benefits and to expand a tax credit for homebuyers.

Economists had not expected the 10 percent mark to come so quickly and immediately darkened their forecasts. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, and Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc., predicted the rate will peak at 11 percent by mid-2010. They earlier had projected 10.5 percent.

Unemployment at 11 percent would be a post-World War II record. Only once since then has joblessness hit double digits in the United States — from September 1982 to July 1983, topping out at 10.8 percent.

The economy “relapsed”?  Not exactly.  The unemployment rate has been rising steadily all year long, with a slight and momentary decline  in July.  The month-over-month increase is the largest since May, and four times as large as the last monthly difference.

So why call it a relapse?  The AP has been talking about “recovery” for a couple of months in its financial reporting, which was substantiated by nearly no data at all.  The third-quarter GDP gave that meme a boost, but that relied on a couple of major government interventions (Cash for Clunkers and the housing tax credit).  It didn’t indicate much genuine private-sector growth at all, which belies any notion of “recovery.”

In fact, the AP has now discovered this:

The survey of companies doesn’t count the self-employed and undercounts employees of small businesses. So the economic picture could be even more dire. …

Troubles for small businesses could have a disproportionate effect on the economy, because they account for about 60 percent of the nation’s jobs. They tend to rely on credit cards and home equity lines — both of which banks have tightened — for cash flow.

The worsening economy — which is what we have — is heavily impacting the engine of new-job growth, small businesses.  As reader Geoff A points out, even Obama understood double-digit unemployment as a sign of a wrecked economy … in January, at least, when arguing for his Porkulus bill:

In a radio address Saturday, Obama warned Congress that delay could bring perilous consequences: “If we don’t act swiftly and boldly, we could see a much deeper economic downturn that could lead to double-digit unemployment,” he said.

Well, yes we could — and as the AP belatedly realizes, we haven’t yet seen a recovery at all, even by Obama’s standards.

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