Graph of the Day
posted at 4:00 pm on November 6, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
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The GOP has this out as part of the “Holding Democrats Accountable” effort. I’m with Glenn Reynolds on this one; the data speak for themselves without the editorial touch of “stimulus swindle” in the chart. It’s a stylized version of the Innocent Bystanders chart, which uses Christina Romer’s original graph for her completely-repudiated forecasting of the American economy. The only information missing from this chart is the $787 billion we spent to no effect whatsoever on job losses:
How much longer will Congress allow that red line to run before recalling what’s left of Porkulus?
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But but that smart lady who reads the news on the radio told me yesterday that unemployment had fallen–then in the next breath she said congress passed a bill extending unemployment benefits. Surely this graft couldn’t be right and surely the extension of unemployment benefits is just a coincidence right?
Redneck Woman on November 6, 2009 at 4:32 PM
The figure ‘Ten’ is a racist code word and will henceforth be banned in conversation and blocked out in print. Therefore the official unemployment rate is .2 %. Now that’s the lowest unemployment America has ever had. Aren’t you glad I’m great?
MaiDee on November 6, 2009 at 4:34 PM
I wish he would take that face, and come in front of his speechifying teleprompter and his lecturn and apologize to the American people as a whole. I wish he had the nutz to admit that he ran too far left when he should have run center and that he has asked Nancy Pelosi to step down because she is tearing this Nation apart. I wish that he would come out and say, “Hey, I miscalculated. I made a mistake. I am going to cut taxes. I am not going to prosecute CIA agents. I am going to lead from this point forward”.
/Wishin on a star.
Key West Reader on November 6, 2009 at 4:34 PM
If you want to use the administration’s own graph, the stimulus is actually making things worse. It’s funny, even if it’s not accurate.
The actual point is that this administration really has no idea what the hell they’re doing when it comes to the economy.
They’re using a long ago discredited playbook, and under the guise of ’stimulating’ something, distrubuting hundreds of billions of dollars to political allies. The money that’s actually going towards job creation is being spent in such a wildly inefficient manner that only a partisan hack of the highest order could argue it was worth it.
Then you have people like Krugman and Pelosi saying we need another one.
BadgerHawk on November 6, 2009 at 4:35 PM
These large deficits create uncertainity for the future. How much will taxes increase? If I invest in my business, will it pay off? What new regulations are coming down the pipe? Will I have enough “cheap” energy for my business? etc.
The stimulus, cap & trade, and the polciies of this administration do this. The growth of economy is based on creating more stuff\wealth more productivly, government do none of that.
WashJeff on November 6, 2009 at 4:35 PM
Flip it upside down and it looks dandy.
SouthernGent on November 6, 2009 at 4:36 PM
True indeed.
However, to be fair it should be noted that the graph is distorted, as the bottom is not zero, but 7%
oddball on November 6, 2009 at 4:36 PM
Who said this:
Paul Krugman, “Dubya’s Double Dip”, 2002
How long should we wait before Team Barry gets equal “treatment” from Paul “the stimulus just wasn’t big enough” Krugman?
Yeah, yeah … don’t hold my breath.
Mark Boabaca on November 6, 2009 at 4:38 PM
O.K., how many people really think the liberals will return the remaining porkulous funds upon knowing it did not even make a dent to this economic downturn? They will come up with an excuse to keep on spending. Remember, liberals don’t want us to keep our money, they need it to spent it for our own good. This was always their motive operandi, the economy was only the means. They will use the 1 million jobs saved credo to prove it’s all good. 2010 could not come soon enough.
lonestr on November 6, 2009 at 4:38 PM
C’mon man! The red line will fall straight down once BO passes his health care bill, cap and trade, and all those little wind mills generating green jobs! What’s to worry about?
chickasaw42 on November 6, 2009 at 4:38 PM
Another example is Bush’s stupid “rebate” checks that he did twice during his administration. Both attempts providing mere econimic blips of growth. Sustained growth is achieved through low and stable taxes, amongst other things, NOT governments spending money…especially borrowed money.
WashJeff on November 6, 2009 at 4:38 PM
I love taking up old quotes from guys like Krugman and comparing them to current ones.
Everyone vacillates a bit from time to time, but that guy in an order of magnitude above even the most dedicated hacks.
BadgerHawk on November 6, 2009 at 4:41 PM
I agree. The time for collegial back patting and jocularity ended months ago
Some people obviously still think this is a game
Sugarbuzz on November 6, 2009 at 4:41 PM
Capitalism is evil, with it’s ups and downs, but the socialist’s bubble never gets popped!
BadgerHawk on November 6, 2009 at 4:42 PM
That’s certainly one possibility among myriad possibilities. Another equally logical possibility is that the stimulus and related government spending discouraged private sector investment, and harmed the employment picture.
But the most likely conclusion is that if his “promise projection” was totally bogus, maybe he just pulled the whole phony projection business out of his nether regions, as an excuse to ram through a trillion dollars in special interest payoffs.
After all, we had only his “experts’ ” words to go by; we were supposed to trust them as to the both the criticality of the problem and the efficacy of their “solution.”
They showed they were clueless as to the criticality of the problem; that (and a clear-eyed look around now that it’s supposedly well into implementation) would tend to shake one’s confidence in their remedy as well.
notropis on November 6, 2009 at 4:42 PM
While uncertainty has an impact, isn’t in a bit ingenuous to attribute it entirely to Obama proposals? Regulations are considered all the time, not just as part of massive overhauls…specific taxes that effect all sorts of businesses get adjusted often as well. Uncertainty over government action doesn’t send unemployment this far down…the implosion of the financial system, along with the credit lines that represent the ultimate ‘future consideration’ for businesses large and small.
While i’ll admit the money being spent on job creation is being done in a less than ideal manner…was there another option? It was clear that, in the wake of the financial meltdown, free capital wasn’t going to create jobs and growth in the short term.
We can argue at the margins over whether it coulda been less here or more there (and lets not forget the stimulus was 1/2 TAX CUTS), but I find it hard to believe that the unemployment rate is a direct result of failed Obama policy.
ernesto on November 6, 2009 at 4:42 PM
Was that supposed to be a freudian?
MarkTheGreat on November 6, 2009 at 4:43 PM
Agreed. Krugman is his own worst enemy.
Mark Boabaca on November 6, 2009 at 4:44 PM
1) No spending program has ever, on net, improved the economy or unemployment.
2) While a few thousand people are being employed because of this spending …
3) thousands more are losing their jobs because of taxes and borrowing needed to acquire the money before it can be spent by govt.
MarkTheGreat on November 6, 2009 at 4:45 PM
The stimulus will keep unemployment under eight percent.
The stimulus will SAVE or create 3.2 million jobs.
The stimulus will make 90% of the jobs in the private sector.
The stimulus is working better than we expected.
.
.
.
.
.
.
The stimulus is racist.
jukin on November 6, 2009 at 4:46 PM
Lol. Yeah.
As we’re starting to see as more and more states release their stimulus numbers, very few actual jobs are being created. We’re dumping about a million bucks (educated estimate) per job. That money has to get paid back, with interest, at some point in the future.
The highly unstable and uncertainty with regards to business policy coming from the White House is a much bigger factor (in a negative way) than the stimulus.
BadgerHawk on November 6, 2009 at 4:46 PM
A number of them have already started calling for it.
MarkTheGreat on November 6, 2009 at 4:48 PM
What happened in June to cause the slope of the “w/o Stimulus” curve to change discontinuously at that point? Could the bogosity of the data have been evident from the start?
unclesmrgol on November 6, 2009 at 4:49 PM
So what would unemployment be without it? And more importantly, who would y’all blame? Was Obama damned if he did and damned if he didnt?
How does govt. borrowing effect jobs in the short term? Tax rates haven’t gone up (in fact, as part of the stimulus, many went down)
ernesto on November 6, 2009 at 4:49 PM
I apologize for not being able to stick around and have an actual debate with you on this, because I think it would be a very good one, with some good points made by all.
I was pretty much just using this thread to blow off steam (see my stupidness on page 1), so my answers to your posts don’t really have a full effort invested in them either.
I’ll check in tomorrow to see if you respond, and we’ll pick it up next time.
But like the fat kid in dodgeball, I’m out.
BadgerHawk on November 6, 2009 at 4:49 PM
It’s hard to get up and walk again with the donkey on your back.
unclesmrgol on November 6, 2009 at 4:50 PM
Stay frosty
ernesto on November 6, 2009 at 4:50 PM
unclesmrgol on November 6, 2009 at 4:49 PM
As I said in a prior comment:
DaveS on November 6, 2009 at 4:52 PM
These are the results of the failed policies and ‘progressive’ ideology of the Obama administration.
That can’t be said or written enough times.
techno_barbarian on November 6, 2009 at 4:53 PM
Yes. It would be. I would attribute it to people that support “big” government and all levels. So I do not blame Obama for all ills, but people that think like him (i.e., statists) that cause greater than 50% of the problems.
I disagree. I have a HARD time thinking of any problems that we have in our economy that does not have government’s fingerprints on it. You read this blog enough to guess what I think they are. So its not exclusively Obama, mainly government in general, but Obama is making it worse, not better.
Local governments\schools are also a HUGE problem. An assesor increased the value of one of my buildinds 33% over the previous year. 33 fricken percent!!!! That is total bogus! But businesses do not vote, people do. Guess what happens when the tax man chases all businesses out of town? It ain’t pretty.
WashJeff on November 6, 2009 at 4:54 PM
By increasing interest rates over what they would have been.
I see you have bought into the lie. No tax rates have changed. They just fiddled with the tables so that less money is taken out each week. You will have to pay it back come next April.
Additionally, as someone else pointed out. Businessmen aren’t stupid. Businessmen don’t just plan for the current quarter but look ahead to the future. They know that these huge deficits are going to result in both taxes and rising interest rates. So they are preparing now by cutting back on their investing.
MarkTheGreat on November 6, 2009 at 4:57 PM
Nowhere near.
(I tried providing 3 links, and the spam filter ate my last attempt — I’ll try again with two: )
Highest estimate I could find was 36%: http://tax.cchgroup.com/Legislation/House-Senate-Recovery-Act-2009.pdf
CBO estimate is 22%: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2009/02/01/GR2009020100154.html
notropis on November 6, 2009 at 4:58 PM
Coming from Westchester County NY, I’d go further and say they’re a bigger problem than the fed.
ernesto on November 6, 2009 at 4:59 PM
Employment would probably be about the same, actually. The ’stimulus’ hasn’t actually gone into anything that will create anything other than government bureaucracy and political paybacks for getting Obama elected.
The difference would’ve been that we wouldn’t have thrown so much money, for which so many are totally unaccountable for, at the problem and our children, our grandchildren and ourselves wouldn’t be facing a very likely horrific inflation in the next 12 to 18 months and beyond in order to pay for this nonsense.
And as to who I would blame; I would blame folks like barney frank, chris dodd, franklin raines, maxine waters, and yes obama, clinton, and many others as the root causes for creating the situation of the toxic assets that caused the meltdown.
When big government forces you by law to make bad business decisions and tells you they’ve got your back should things go wrong, it’s hard to blame the financial institutions for bundling the crap, even though it was clearly an unwise thing to encourage it and let it go as far as it did.
There are people responsible for this situation. They just happen to be in charge of ‘fixing’ the problem they should be in jail for creating.
techno_barbarian on November 6, 2009 at 5:02 PM
Is there a cutoff point at which businesses begin to take stock of the deficit? As far as I know, this country’s run budget deficits almost as standard operating procedure…and our public debt has also seen other bad days.
My point is that, for your assumption to be true, we’d have to see it play out during other times of high public debt or deficit spending. However, as a percentage of GDP public debt was lowest during the Carter days. it seems theres a lot more to it.
ernesto on November 6, 2009 at 5:03 PM
Obama: “Stimulus”
Seven Percent Solution on November 6, 2009 at 5:03 PM
Where can I get some of these stimulus funds? I’ll make up some liberal sounding program and just wait for the government checks to start rolling in.
Jeff from WI on November 6, 2009 at 5:05 PM
Yes. My company of 100 employees pays more in property taxes than income taxes. As long as people are stupid enough to think that “more money” = “better schools” and allow public employees to have defined benefit retirement plans, we will get screwed.
That is why blame statists. Conservatives, in general, support school choice, and, if politically feasible, would support the idea of no public schools, and publically funded school scholarships starting at Kindergarten where the amoutn available is based on last years available funds. ALso, conservatives support changing public pensions.
LIberals\statists fight these changes; thus, in my mind, they are the problem.
WashJeff on November 6, 2009 at 5:07 PM
Jeff from WI on November 6, 2009 at 5:05 PM
Ask Lesko!!!
notropis on November 6, 2009 at 5:08 PM
Cheese Curds for Kids
Good luck with your program
WashJeff on November 6, 2009 at 5:09 PM
No it wasn’t 1/2 and the vast majority of it was rebates and checks to the poor. Not exactly going to incentivize squat as far as investment.
Chuck Schick on November 6, 2009 at 5:15 PM
I’m still waiting (and hoping) to see one of the adults step up to Barry as he starts cuing up his teleprompters for yet another great and historic speech, and tell him that he is ‘unemployed’… Walk home Barry, and turn in the credit card…. cause… you broke it.
-
A*hole.
-
RalphyBoy on November 6, 2009 at 5:16 PM
Why use a mop to clean up that was used to make the stinking mess in the first place.
Speakup on November 6, 2009 at 5:17 PM
John Kennedy thought so. HE CUT TAXES ON THE PRIVATE SECTOR.
And we had a work.
Reagan CUT TAXES ON THE PRIVATE SECTOR.
And we had work.
W CUT TAXES ON THE PRIVATE SECTOR.
And we had work.
BOZO pushes and passes PORKULUS and the private sector responds by laying everyone off and digging deep bunkers.
And they keep laying people off because they know huge taxes are incoming.
And have I mentioned we HAVE NO WORK. Thanks a lot Bozo regime.
dogsoldier on November 6, 2009 at 5:20 PM
The stimulus worked. It is global warming that is causing the unemployment as it is just too hot to work.
We need to pass crap and tax to bring down the unemployment. LOL
txdoc on November 6, 2009 at 5:28 PM
It’s not just the deficit, it’s also the debt and the likelihood that taxes will have to be raised. I know Obama’s promise, during the campaign, to raise capital gains tax in spite of the fact that doing so would reduce government revenue had a chilling effect on many small investors and retirees — it signaled that his policies were likely to be irrational and based on some warped logic of retribution against the “rich”.
So now with the dizzying growth in the deficit, and its consequent increase in the national debt, plus staggeringly costly and investment-hostile legislation afoot (”health care”, and “cap and trade”), money is going both offshore and into tangibles. Businesses are doubting the wisdom of further investment in the U.S. because of: a) concerns that their profits will fall into the sights of a voracious and rapacious government; b) very real worries that unions/health care are going to run amok and make labor costs skyrocket (think automobile manufacturing). With China having us by the short-and-curlies by owning the vast bulk of this debt we can never repay (and openly laughing at our boob of a Treasury Secretary), US-based manufacturing is doomed: there will be no way they can compete.
These are the factors that are driving up unemployment. I’m not a big conspiracy theory fan, but I think it’s only going to get worse and present the BO08 in chief and Rhambo with a “crisis” of monumental proportions that they will try to use to leverage even more power for themselves and their cronies.
Were I charged with managing my shareholders’ investment in my business, I’d be hedging against the US economy, just as George Soros is.
mr.blacksheep on November 6, 2009 at 5:31 PM
The stimulus will not be televised
DrW on November 6, 2009 at 5:36 PM
The avg. hours worked last month remained at 33..the lowest in a generation.
President Obama..where the heck are those danged green jobs?
hello?……is this thing on?
DrW on November 6, 2009 at 5:38 PM
Dear Hot Air commenters,
We as Americans are EXACTLY where the Obama administration wants us,under the heel of their jackboots,America is going to defeated from within and the democraps are the cause..Rome fell slower than we will.
huckelberry on November 6, 2009 at 5:39 PM
Maybe Obama can get that Green line from those Fidelity commercials to guide that Red Line in the proper direction?
Daemonocracy on November 6, 2009 at 5:41 PM
Wow, they called it OBAMA’s stimulus swindle.
What a racist comment by a major political party.
No chance they’ll ever be elected to anything again.
notagool on November 6, 2009 at 5:42 PM
Exactly, the unemployed is so much higher than the marketed percentage. So many just drop off the rolls.
True_King on November 6, 2009 at 5:42 PM
I agree that the numbers speak for themselves, and the Swindle thing should be unnecessary.
On the other hand, 52% in the last election were so clueless that they voted for Ogabe.
Maybe it’s not such a bad idea to dumb it down.
Pavel on November 6, 2009 at 5:43 PM
“incompetence” Really? huh.
Dr. ZhivBlago on November 6, 2009 at 5:44 PM
Not to mention bank failures and foreclosures make it a lot harder to get a business loan nowadays. You can’t add jobs or increase business without some capital.
scalleywag on November 6, 2009 at 5:46 PM
Former Enron advisor, y’know.
Del Dolemonte on November 6, 2009 at 5:47 PM
O is gradually switching from blaming Bush for everything to blaming FOX. Like a typical liberal he looks everwhere for solutions to his problems except at himself. Thing is, I still find myself wondering if it’s him or his toadies who are the driving force behind the mess he’s msking.
jeanie on November 6, 2009 at 5:48 PM
Pelosi says it looks like victory!
BacaDog on November 6, 2009 at 5:48 PM
Yeah, you’re right. He’s only Dear Leader. Let’s name it after Laura Bush instead?
Del Dolemonte on November 6, 2009 at 5:51 PM
If what you say is true, then periods of relatively low public debt should correspond with healthy unemployment levels…however, our lowest relative public debt was to be found during the carter stagflation days. Job growth is about more than the public debt, more than taxes. That no one mentions consumer spending as a consideration when making business investments speaks to the fact that you’re not pointing out all the variables…
ernesto on November 6, 2009 at 5:52 PM
It’s like a house of cards they are building higher while pulling out the cards on the bottom one day it’s going to fall. The mess we are in sucks. Last year all we heard was Bush was spending too much money. Now we have the donkey’s in charge spending even more. No one can predict what’s going to happen because we’ve never been in this perdicament before.
What’s going to happen come next year when the government is going to be short on the taxes they are going to unexpectedly going to be short on. Are they going to pull a CA and take 10% more out of our paychecks. Scary times we are in.
Brat4life on November 6, 2009 at 5:54 PM
I’m having trouble…
Is that the unemployment graph or NASA’s next launch tragjectory?
Hog Wild on November 6, 2009 at 5:55 PM
It’s a result of Obama fascism. When the Capitalists suddenly realize that all the rules have changed – and that they now have a hostile government that will not allow them to take profits – then you get what we have now.
You’ll get even worse once the Capitalists realize that Capitalism is dead.
We’re in a fascist economy now – the Capitalists realize that they are now allowed to make only the profit that the Democratic party believes they should make – and not a penny more. The Executives on Wall Street are demonized by this White House and their pay has been limited. Bond holders of auto-companies were demonized by this White House – and their money was basically confiscated and given to the Labor Unions. All across America – small businesses are bracing for new tax hikes. All across America – the rich people who produce the jobs for the rest of us are bracing for new tax hikes. Power companies are standing by for punitive cap and tax penalties.
It’s fascism … It’s OBAMA
HondaV65 on November 6, 2009 at 5:56 PM
Thw Republicans should be attacking the Dems for holding back stimulus money so they can use it for the 2010 elections.
davod on November 6, 2009 at 6:17 PM
I think you’re over-simplifying it quite a lot. Businesses aren’t computers that simply crunch numbers; they are run by people, and those people do not have confidence in our economy. That lack of confidence, in my opinion, is being caused by an erratic and leftward-lurching government. Every piece of legislation so far introduced in this legislative year is harmful to the economy and hostile to business. That fact, in conjunction with the startling rate of increase of the deficit and debt, the unprecedented increase in the money supply, and the apparent unwillingness of the government to take serious corrective steps (preferring instead to blame the previous administration and continue blundering on), points to further economic and fiscal trouble ahead. Remember, the coming devaluation of the currency is going to spike up interest rates, which is going to play havoc with investment valuations (if you are not familiar with the Capital Asset Pricing Model, you should become so).
You mention consumer spending. A rational consumer isn’t going to go on a spending binge when the very real possibility of being laid off looms on the horizon. Those who aren’t laid off are going to face the double whammy of big tax hits and high inflation (and its consequent bracket creep).
In any event, as has been repeatedly proven in failed economic “stimulus” after failed economic “stimulus”, wealth creation isn’t based on spending, it is based on value creation (ie. production and investment).
mr.blacksheep on November 6, 2009 at 6:18 PM
Socialism didn’t work in the 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s anywhere in the world.
Why would anyone think it would work in the 00s?
angryed on November 6, 2009 at 6:28 PM
Obviously the chart is racially biased…
metric on November 6, 2009 at 6:31 PM
That chart is obviously racist. All of us at HA should lobby for statistical justice.
Statistical justice NOW!
Mojave Mark on November 6, 2009 at 7:04 PM
Saw this on another thread and almost laughed my ass out of my chair.
Bythe way the actual unemployment number is now at 17.5%, if we can believe ANYTHING out of the bozo regime.
Go to http://www.bls.gov and search for U-6.
dogsoldier on November 6, 2009 at 7:09 PM
Do you know how to find housing for pimps and prostitutes?
I think there’s big grant $$ available for that.
justltl on November 6, 2009 at 7:11 PM
Yeah.
Don’t spend it.
Have 10% unemployment and a stronger dollar.
So, destroy the dollar? Because that’s what shovelling currency out a helicopter does.
The “alternative” was not to do it.
Excuse me. A tax cut is a reduction in the rate at which the federal government exacts revenue from personal or coporate income, or, the elimination of a federal exaction altogether. So if there is no income, a tax cut provides exactly no benefit.
Rebates for homebuying, cash for clunkers, etc., are NOT tax cuts. They are welfare for doing something. Even if your costs to do it zeroed out, and you made no profit, you still get the goodies.
Now, what’s the percentage of tax cuts in the stimulus again?
Meaning a trillion dollar increase had no direct effect on the economy? Really?
Chris_Balsz on November 6, 2009 at 8:01 PM
It has to be understood that the stimulus package had nothing to do with the economy. It was as known, a spending package to get funding for democratic projects that otherwise would not get on their own. Not having a lick of sense on economics, they assumed that like previous recessions; it would pull itself back up and they could take credit for reviving the economy and debate their greed and gains against higher taxes later. They did managed quiet well at defecting the fact that they created the current economic crises with forcing leaders to make the unsecured loans that collectively brought the entire worlds economy to the ground. They failed to make that connection, and still do, that there is a reason some people own homes and property and others rent.
It also needs to be understood that a healthy economy does not provide the needed opportunity to move away from capitalism to Socialism. The worse the economy is, the better the possibility for the socialist and communist to achieve that goal.
It needs to be understood that socialism is not about the people or providing what is needed to everyone. It is about power and those who have control being able to use as they deem beneficial to them or other elites and politicals that they favor.
It needs to be understood that a nationalized healthcare law is not about healthcare, but about taking control of a government and the people by the elite socialist and politicals. Socialized medicine is the vehicle to allow them access into every corner of private lives, government and business. Once socialism is established, it then becomes possible for a united socialist government such as the UN and its self described mandate to become the seat of a world government.
It needs to be understood that Obama has mixed loyalties, instilled and drilled into him from before he could walk, and they are not to the people or to the nation. His are to the socialist and communist and as it becomes more apparent with each event through his inaction or distancing from the appearance of being condemning of actions; Islam, his native religion.
Franklyn on November 6, 2009 at 8:30 PM
The graph makes important points, but it would do so more clearly and honestly if the Y-axis started at 0% instead of 7%. On the other hand, calling the “stimulus” as swindle seems entirely accurate and well worthwhile. The GOP would be foolish not to blame the Democrats publicly for throwing hundreds of billions of dollars to their constituencies without a clear economic rationale.
Kralizec on November 6, 2009 at 8:34 PM
chickasaw42 on November 6, 2009 at 10:31 PM
Could one of the people complaining about the “dishonesty” of the graph, make an “honest” one?
Chris_Balsz on November 6, 2009 at 10:37 PM
I think it’s obvious by now that they are “all in” on Porkulus.
2ipa on November 6, 2009 at 10:45 PM
you could put the dow jones right on top of that graph and it’d show a pretty strong correlation.
sharkface on November 7, 2009 at 12:58 AM
This is a lot more honest.
Not as slick, granted, but more honest.
notropis on November 7, 2009 at 1:18 AM
I do not think Mr. Obama has the power you think he does — at least not in June. Just mentioning healthcare caused a knee in the curve?
No, I figured it out. The beginning of June is when I began buying my 4th of July fireworks.
unclesmrgol on November 7, 2009 at 2:45 AM
To make an honest one, you’d have to substitute two other trend lines for Obama’s guesses in white and grey.
So, you leave the red line (which is reality), and you put another line in showing the aggregate amount of inflated dollars from the stimulus inflicted upon the economy.
You could have a green line reflecting automobile sales, and a yellow line reflecting home sales, and a cyan line representing foreclosures.
Our economy’s health is best represented by the turnover in large durable goods such as cars and houses.
What is most interesting about the red line is the slope, which, aside from the anomaly in June/July, is almost constantly 10/11, One hopes it will level off soon, or in about 9.2 years we will all be unemployed.
unclesmrgol on November 7, 2009 at 3:02 AM
This “should be” the most pressing issue for the Administration.
This “is” the most pressing issue for Americans according to the exit
polls. The media needs to beat this drum every time some one from the White House shows up on a Sunday morning show but unlikely that will happen.
elderberry on November 7, 2009 at 10:05 AM
I have consistently said that this is a recession WITHOUT a stimulus package. All government spending, even spending to magnify the amount of government paperwork by a factor of 30, would provide some amount of “stimulus” as it would employ programmers to integrate the new “virtual” forms into existing programs and re-engineer databases. As well as producing orders for paper companies and printers–etc.
Everything I saw in the stimulus bill was no more stimulating than any bill requiring new resources to be allocated would be. We wouldn’t call the above bill a “stimulus” bill, but a reform bill of some form–so I don’t call the Feb 2009 bill a “stimulus package” most of it when to the public sector to one-time contract services and materials from the private sector. Plus although the government can spend for construction in the middle of a recession, new construction for private businesses, who have to make revenue before building, is undertaken when the recovery is assured, and inventories are low and new demand justifies investment.
There was no more stimulus to the economy than any normal spending bill passed by Congress. Not a stimulus bill.
Axeman on November 8, 2009 at 5:44 PM
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