nagee76 on November 6, 2009 at 8:16 PM

Good post; good points.

That would allow the US to have a smaller footprint eventually while marginalizing Mullah Omar and his band of lunatics. The withdrawal of Abdullah and his reported sympathies with India makes it easier for Pakistan to partner with the US and Karzai in that effort, too.

Ed, a newsflash for you – Karzai is a friend of India too – we supported the Northern Alliance and Ahmed Shah Masood against the Taliban, in the period before 9/11.

When Karzai became President, India was pretty happy – he was and is India friendly.

So what has changed now? Karzai is pretty unpopular now and Abdullah would have had a better chance to make the Afghanistan people more confident in their democracy.

Pakistan wants ANYTHING BUT a stable and a democratic Afghanistan – that would naturally be pro-India. Hence it influences Obama to chuck Abdullah and keep the weak Karzai in power – an unpopular and weak pol remains in power, and Afghani faith in its democracy diminishes EVEN MORE – this is exactly what the Pakis want.

So,lets review – Abdullah is sidelined. Karzai is weak as a pony. And Obama wants to leave as soon as 2013, after winning re-election.

Pakistan steps in and says that it can “negotiate” between Washington and the Taliban – in other words, talk about handing power to the Taliban.. they will be asked to stop their attacks on US military in return – once “peace” returns, the US can leave in honor and “victory”.

Obama’s dithering on the troop level makes a lot of sense now. He is READY TO LEAVE and is preparing for withdrawal. Aided by Pakistan.

If the US did push Abdullah out of the picture, then we’re still playing long ball in Afghanistan, not looking for a quick exit.
How so ? If the US actively participated in pushing Abdullah from the picture, it means that it agrees with Pakistan. It means it does not care at all about how faith in democracy in Afghanistan is greatly diminished.

What longball are you guys playing when your President has been sitting on McChrystals recommendation for months now? If anything it tells me that the LAST THING Obama wants to do is to fight.

This article should seem more than plausible to long term observers of the region.

LOL ! scituate_tgr FTW !

If the US did push Abdullah out of the picture, then we’re still playing long ball in Afghanistan, not looking for a quick exit.

Or President Obama is that stupid.

“…The Taliban [is] drawn from the majority Pashtun ethnic group which accounts for some 40% of Afghanistan’s 20 million people…”

Abdullah Abdullah is a Tajik and was once the public face of Ahmed Shah Masood, the “Lion of the Panjshir Valley,” who was assassinated the week before 9/11. The Tajiks were the most formidable members of the Northern Alliance, the group the US partnered with to overthrow the Taliban in 2001.

In the north of the country, around Mazar-i-Sharif are the Uzbeks, led by Rashid Dostum. He’s the one who locked Taliban prisoners into shipping containers and left them to perish in the desert. He doesn’t get invited to Taliban parties.

At Bamiyan, formerly home of those Buddha statues, are the Hazara, descendents of Genghis Khan’s Mongol Horde, whom the Taliban tried to ethnically cleanse, they’re not in the Taliban club.

So saying Taliban, is tantamount to saying “Pashtun.”

As for Karzai…before he was elected President, he was chosen leader by a national tribal council – a Loya Jirga. He’s a gutsy guy , and whatever his failings appear to be today, he stood up in 2001, at the risk of his life, when a national leader was needed to avert a civil war after the fall of the Taliban government.

http://thereligionofpeace.com

.

http://www.atimes.com

Why are we quoting them again?

Retreat is the only thing this Admin knows….
Retreat from Afghanistan
Retreat from Iraq
Retreat from missile defence
Retreat from the economy
It’s a clear running theme with these guys. They are not fit to govern. Period.

JoeinTX on November 6, 2009 at 10:28 AM

But, running (away) is healthy for you! And it’s mandated in the new health guidelines, I’m sure. Pelosi, Obama, and Reid are just making sure they’ve got a head start.

Basilsbest on November 6, 2009 at 11:11 AM

On further thought, yes, Obama would never declare Victory. He’d declare peace…and go on to more pressing matters…

And the media? They’d demand another Nobel Peace prize for The One.

coldwarrior on November 6, 2009 at 10:18 AM

Your analysis makes sense to me except that there’s no way Obama declares victory. No, he will say he is bringing peace to the region by the exercise of smart power and the idiots in the media who still support him will lap it up.

When the moderate opposition candidate and more secular alternative to the ultra-religious Taliban (“Talib” meaning students — of Islam) is named “Slave of Allah Slave of Allah”. That’s weird.

Of course nothing going on anywhere in the world has anything to do with a political awakening in Islam, like the Islamic alternative to the UDHR, the Cairo Declaration (1990), all sharia all the time. That never happened, so never mind.

Another area we have trouble facing reality is when it comes to the Taliban being originally created and funded by a large faction of Pakistan’s ISI. You know, the guys we give billions of dollars to fight the Taliban which they roll into tanks and airplanes for fighting India.

I think the first step in any analysis should involve marshaling the actual facts. But that’s exactly what we carefully avoid.

He’s a Democrat, and the Democrats make the French look powerful and brave.

So true. Too bad so many voters forget that so quickly and easily….

It’s a pity he can’t muster his Chicago-style intensity for this nation’s enemies.

Plerase don’t tell me I was actually right because this would be just criminal.

(my latest bumper sticker)

http://WWW.ELECTRICCOWBOYFTWORTH.COM

Not the Afghan election, silly………….his reelection bid in 2012.

The troops are fine until then, trust him.

Stupid right-wing extremists criticizing him over meaningless stuff…….

I can hear and understand the arguments on both sides – I really can.

Tough call – glad I don’t have to make it.