Open thread: NY-23; Update: Fox News calls it for Owens; Update: Hoffman concedes

posted at 8:52 pm on November 3, 2009 by Allahpundit

Here we go. Could be a 10-point win for Owens, could be a 10-point win for Hoffman. InTrade is betting heavily on the conservative.

The Watertown Daily Times will be updating as results come in, but you’re advised to check Newzjunky too. They’ve been all over the Hoffman saga since day one.

I don’t want to raise expectations too much, but if DH pulls this off and Christie squeaks through in New Jersey, we’re getting a humpbot cameo tonight. For the first time in a long, long time.

Update: The WDT results page is loading slowly. Try this one instead.

Update: Results are coming in very slowly but apparently exit polls had Hoffman by three, 50/47.

Update: With more than 10 percent of the vote in, Hoffman’s … down by seven. According to Marc Ambinder, Republicans in the district are very nervous. We’re not actually going to get a Christie upset and a Hoffman defeat, are we?

Update: Gingrich is writing his jeremiad about third-party challenges as we speak. From Dave Weigel:

WHOA – Hoffman splitting Madison County, where he was leading 2-1 in Siena Poll. Getting ready to say “Congressman Bill Owens.”

Update: A much-needed shot of hope from Erick Erickson: “Just talked to ppl close to Hoffman. They think he’s won. Owens votes in. Their sampling tracks with what we’re seeing.”

Update: At least one Hoffman supporter thinks it’s over.

Update: Hope and change — Hoffman narrowing the gap?

The Plattsburgh attorney has 57,050 votes compared to Conservative Doug Hoffman, a Lake Placid CPA, with 54,538 votes…

There are more than 10,000 absentee votes to still be counted…

Owens is maintaining a 48 percent to 46 percent lead.

Update: Chuck Todd notes that there may not be a call in this race tonight given that the absentee ballots won’t be counted until tomorrow. Fair enough, but if Hoffman’s still behind by three or four thousand votes at evening’s end, how likely is it that he’s going to make up the difference by winning 75 percent of those ballots?

Update: FNC has called it for the Democrat. Points to take away from the loss: (1) PPP’s last poll was way, waaaay off; (2) Scozzafava’s endorsement must have had some impact on her supporters, as it erased the five-point lead Hoffman held in the last Siena poll after she dropped out; (3) third-party challenges, while sometimes warranted, are a very risky proposition (attention Glenn Beck!); (4) the win in New Jersey, where The One staked his own political capital in campaigning for Corzine, was huge compared to the loss here; and (5) as I said over the weekend, the actual result of this race is unimportant. The point in torpedoing Scozzafava and swinging the GOP behind Hoffman was to send a message to the Republican leadership that only fiscal conservatives will be tolerated henceforth, and that message has been sent even with Owens winning a squeaker. The loss is disappointing but it’s a detail on an otherwise great night.

So great, in fact, that it deserves something special. This special.

Update: He’s not going to make up the difference in absentees, especially since many of them were sent in when Scozzafava was still in the race. So the time has come.


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Ronnie,

It’s nothing really serious against the guy. I just think he is very predictable and sprouts off the same thing over and over. I think he was better with Colmes….

JVelez on November 4, 2009 at 9:00 AM

The spin is laughable.

Dede is done.

She will not be able to backstab us in Congress.

She is a total fraud.

WIN. Period.

Saltysam on November 4, 2009 at 8:56 AM

I doubt even the trolls believe the spin. As I said earlier, Rome wasn’t built in a day.

venividivici on November 4, 2009 at 9:01 AM

NY23 would have been nice but it was still better having a real Republican run and lose, at least the Democrat will have to vote like he wants to get re-elected, the Republican would have voted with Pelosi without regard to re-election. THis is a one year job and he submits himself to the voters again next year. If the Republicans don’t allow the MSM to set the narrative again, the Republican will win.

bflat879 on November 4, 2009 at 9:01 AM

Hoffman = Dream
Scozzafava = Nightmare
Owens = Meh

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 8:18 AM

Most illustrative summation of the entire comment section.

Saltysam on November 4, 2009 at 9:03 AM

Palin’s endorsement had one consequence – it brought Hoffman a s–tload of money. Any candidate would be crazy to ignore that.

Ronnie on November 4, 2009 at 9:04 AM

No, thanks to Sarah Palin, NY-23 is a Democratic district now.

Proud Rino on November 4, 2009 at 8:12 AM

And how would it have been any different if the “Republican” had won? What would she actually have voted with the GOP on anyway?

Had he won Hotair would say he helped him win.
He lost. She must take some of the responsibility for her halo of duh.

Dave Rywall on November 4, 2009 at 8:13 AM

No, this is illogical. It’s obvious she helped him. She endorsed, and he immediate received an avalanche of donations. But in a close race, with the GOP candidate endorsing the Democrat, she wasn’t able to help enough. It’s not as though he got stomped here. It was a close race.

you refuse to acknowledge that her support may have hurt his chances. So typical.

Dave Rywall on November 4, 2009 at 8:15 AM

You refuse to acknowledge that there are more than two options here.

Esthier on November 4, 2009 at 9:05 AM

Hoffman = Dream
Scozzafava = Nightmare
Owens = Meh

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 8:18 AM

Best way to put it……..

JVelez on November 4, 2009 at 9:05 AM

I love how all the trolls are saying Palin’s endorsement hurt Hoffman but refuse to acknowledge that Obama campaigned what 5 times for Corzine in a very blue state and he still got beat.

Heh

gophergirl on November 4, 2009 at 9:06 AM

This was supposed to be a republican leaning district? Do these people understand that this give the witch speaker another vote and arm to twist. I sometimes wonder what are people thinking when they go to the polls. Maybe they just want some redistributed wealth.

Kissmygrits on November 4, 2009 at 9:08 AM

The Virginia and NJ results were not surprising at all: Zero surprise.

A Axe on November 4, 2009 at 8:51 AM

You’re a day late and a dollar short. Where were you yesterday, A Axe? Not everyone was so sure about the outcome in New Jersey as you apparently are now, based on the empirical data. If I’d have put money down based on your predictions I mighta had some walking-around money this morning. Thanks a lot for the heads-up, pal.

RD on November 4, 2009 at 9:09 AM

Do you have a link for that? Owens was to the right of Scozzafava, to the point that kos actually endorsed the latter (no matter how badly he wants people to forget that).

I can’t picture Owens rubber stamping anything for Pelosi, given the election battle he’s going to face next year.

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 8:43 AM

NY-23: Owens Endorses Public Option

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 9:09 AM

palin, beck further reduce gop presence in congress, add vote for health reform.

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 8:27 AM

Cause you think the GOP candidate would have been a vote against ObamaCare? Based on what?

I agree – those people shouldn’t have been allowed to vote for the person they wanted to win.

Proud Rino on November 4, 2009 at 8:46 AM

Allowed to? Leave it to a liberal to speak of making a Constitutional right illegal.

Esthier on November 4, 2009 at 9:10 AM

I love how all the trolls are saying Palin’s endorsement hurt Hoffman but refuse to acknowledge that Obama campaigned what 5 times for Corzine in a very blue state and he still got beat.
Heh

gophergirl on November 4, 2009

Lack of oxygen to the brain causes tunnel vision. Usually happens right before you black out. This has to be the explanation.

SKYFOX on November 4, 2009 at 9:11 AM

I am so bummed out over this. I am looking at the positives about this and it is somewhat comforting. However, I hope he runs again, studies up on forensic accounting, moves into the district, and for God’s sake start making more noise about the Republican Party up in the 23rd.
If someone had to loose last night, I guess it was OK that it was Hoffman. Christie in NJ is huge. I am hoping that it will stem the tide of folks moving into the Shennandoah Valley and voting like they did in NJ. Same with Vermont.
It’s God’s Country for a reason and that reason is that we don’t vote for Democrats.

BetseyRoss on November 4, 2009 at 9:11 AM

Here’s another teaser: President Ogabe welcomes the new GOP governors and looks forward to the implications for the 2010 elections.

Bishop on November 4, 2009 at 8:32 AM

if by implications you mean third party challengers sinking gop candidates nationwide, it’s surely a thrilling prospect.

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 9:14 AM

And if only conservatives weren’t illiterate, they wouldn’t look so retarded. Palin didn’t cause Hoffman to lose, but she gave the seat to a Democrat. From a woman who may be hoping to be a Republican president, it was a boneheaded move. Palin is a dimwit.

Norman Blizter on November 4, 2009 at 8:49 AM

You seem to have a hard time understanding basic political concepts. The seat would have gone to a Democrat before Palin got involved.

NY-23: Owens Endorses Public Option

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 9:09 AM

He asked for a link that would prove Scozzafava would have voted against ObamaCare.

Esthier on November 4, 2009 at 9:14 AM

I love how all the trolls are saying Palin’s endorsement hurt Hoffman but refuse to acknowledge that Obama campaigned what 5 times for Corzine in a very blue state and he still got beat.
Heh

gophergirl on November 4, 2009

Lack of oxygen to the brain causes tunnel vision. Usually happens right before you black out. This has to be the explanation.

SKYFOX on November 4, 2009 at 9:11 AM
———

NJ is not the topic of this thread.

However NJ definitely was a kick in Obama’s balls.

Dave Rywall on November 4, 2009 at 9:16 AM

However NJ definitely was a kick in Obama’s balls.

Dave Rywall on November 4, 2009 at 9:16 AM

I think you can make the argument that NJ is a kick in America’s balls every single day of the year.

Proud Rino on November 4, 2009 at 9:18 AM

To hear Democrats talk this morning, one would think this was a landslide vote for Owens. It was 49% to 46%. And, Hoffman had to come out of nowhere just a few weeks ago with no serious financial backers. The RNC helped finance the Owens win by blindly giving the turncoat mega bucks.

Hoffman needs to start campaigning for 2010 TODAY!

joedoe on November 4, 2009 at 9:18 AM

I agree – those people shouldn’t have been allowed to vote for the person they wanted to win.

Proud Rino on November 4, 2009 at 8:46 AM

Only an idiot like you would think that people who voted for a withdrawn candidate are anything less that morons.

csdeven on November 4, 2009 at 9:20 AM

I am so bummed out over this. I am looking at the positives about this and it is somewhat comforting. However…

BetseyRoss on November 4, 2009 at 9:11 AM

What’s so terrible about Owens? The 23rd district could’ve been stuck with Scozzafava! Sure, this broke a 110-year precedent. But even if Hoffman had won, the 110-year precedent was on shaky ground anyway, what with the Republican Party running ads against him and such.

If there was any mourning to do, AFAIC that bill came due a couple weeks ago.

RD on November 4, 2009 at 9:20 AM

Why is Palin the only name being bashed about this loss? Some big names jumped on the Hoffman bandwagon.

I guess that helps to re-enforce the idea that she is the only one to watch thee days.

joedoe on November 4, 2009 at 9:21 AM

-Hoffman will likely pick the seat up next year running on the (R) ticket. In retrospect, the Christie win is the bigger story tonight.

BadgerHawk on November 3, 2009 at 11:15 PM

———————————————————-

Add on top of that the fact that Owens is moderate enough the kos endorsed Scozzafava. It’s highly unlikely he’ll serve as a rubber stamp for Pelosi, especially given the election battle he’s looking at just a year from now.

Hoffman = Dream
Scozzafava = Nightmare
Owens = Meh

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 8:18 AM
BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 9:00 AM

–Just a few points: 1). Remember that people were calling Christie Corzine-lite and a RINO a few months ago. The conservative candidate in NJ was Lonnigan (I may have spelled that name wrong). He was defeated in the primary by Christie.

2). It’s not clear to me that someone as socially conservative as Hoffman can win in NY-23. This was a district that Republicans have won by 60%+ majorities for roughly the last twenty years.

Jimbo3 on November 4, 2009 at 9:21 AM

Poor Owens. Guy has a primary in 7 months. Will he even have time to vote on anything?

Ronnie on November 4, 2009 at 9:22 AM

NY-23 was more about the Republican Party than who got the seat. Had Scuzzy-wuzzy one she would have had the benefit of being an encumbent and there would have been next to no chance the local party bosses would have allowed a challenger. But with Owens in office, there will now be a primary and we will see who the party members prefer.

TQM38a on November 4, 2009 at 9:24 AM

I wish obama have campaigned (heavily) for Owens. This would have assured Hoffman win in NY-23.

runner on November 4, 2009 at 9:25 AM

I don’t envy Owens. He will be under one huge microscope for the next few months and one wrong move will send him packing next year.

joedoe on November 4, 2009 at 9:25 AM

NY-23: Owens Endorses Public Option

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 9:09 AM

Also, the Democrats have reason to believe that stance was a political one, while writing that he was to Dede’s Right.

http://www.observer.com/4850/meet-bill-owens-dccc-approved-non-democrat-house

Esthier on November 4, 2009 at 9:26 AM

Palin, Beck further reduce gop presence in congress, add vote for health reform.

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 8:27 AM

Reminds me of an old Russian joke. The day after Obama & Palin have a foot race — which she wins — the next day’s NYT headline reads:

Obama Gains 2nd Place, Palin Comes In Second-to-Last

RD on November 4, 2009 at 9:26 AM

He asked for a link that would prove Scozzafava would have voted against ObamaCare.

Esthier on November 4, 2009 at 9:14 AM

no. scozzafava was against the bill, but you’d know that if you’d actually paid attention.

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 9:30 AM

NY-23: Owens Endorses Public Option

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 9:09 AM

Thanks for the link. You may have, however, noticed that candidates say a lot of things during a campaign that they don’t follow through on *cough*Obama*cough*.

I’m not convinced Owens will be supporting ObamaCare given the fight he’s going to be facing next year. But we’ll see.

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 9:30 AM

Also, the Democrats have reason to believe that stance was a political one, while writing that he was to Dede’s Right.

http://www.observer.com/4850/meet-bill-owens-dccc-approved-non-democrat-house

Esthier on November 4, 2009 at 9:26 AM

That was my suspicion as well. But again, we’ll find out shortly.

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 9:31 AM

no. scozzafava was against the bill, but you’d know that if you’d actually paid attention.

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 9:30 AM

No? Did I ask you a question? I simply explained something you missed. Also, at that date Owens was against the health care bill as well. It’s why Dede got the KOS endorsement.

Esthier on November 4, 2009 at 9:33 AM

Raise the bloody shirt and “remember Hoffman”!

I’ll give it a couple of weeks before we see a photo of Abby and Doug together in some sort of irony puff piece.

R Square on November 4, 2009 at 9:33 AM

Sure, this broke a 110-year precedent. But even if Hoffman had won, the 110-year precedent was on shaky ground anyway…

RD on November 4, 2009 at 9:20 AM

Er, 16-year precedent.

RD on November 4, 2009 at 9:34 AM

That was my suspicion as well. But again, we’ll find out shortly.

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 9:31 AM

The polls on health care will certainly be something to watch. He still needs to be in campaign mode, and it’s unlikely he’ll be running against another Democrat next time.

Esthier on November 4, 2009 at 9:35 AM

Hopefully this won’t be a vote for ObamaCare…

I don’t care what anyone says about promises prior to an election. In this day and age, they are just words….

jeffn21 on November 4, 2009 at 9:38 AM

(3) third-party challenges, while sometimes warranted, are a very risky proposition (attention Glenn Beck!)

Dear Allahpundit, yes, third-party challenges can be risky, but they have absolutely nothing to do with Glenn Beck.

You had pretty good points to express until you inserted Glenn Beck’s name which didn’t need to be there.

moonsbreath on November 4, 2009 at 9:38 AM

RD on November 4, 2009 at 9:20 AM

I’m trying. It’ll take a few days.

BetseyRoss on November 4, 2009 at 9:38 AM

I’m not convinced Owens will be supporting ObamaCare given the fight he’s going to be facing next year. But we’ll see.

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 9:30 AM

campaigning in a traditionally red district, owens endorsed the bill and the public option. and he won. draw your own conclusions.

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 9:41 AM

The polls on health care will certainly be something to watch. He still needs to be in campaign mode, and it’s unlikely he’ll be running against another Democrat next time.

Esthier on November 4, 2009 at 9:35 AM

Yeah, which is one reason why I don’t think Hoffman’s loss is a big deal, at all.

It sent the proper message to the GOP establishment. Plus, his losing will hopefully minimze the 3rd party craziness brewing, and convince conservatives to start working to take the party over from the inside (much in the same way the progressives have successfully taken over the Democrat Party).

And on the health care, it does seem very odd that kos would endorse Scozzafava if Owens supported ObamaCare, which was the starting point for my assumptions for his presence in the House not really mattering all that much.

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 9:42 AM

owens endorsed the bill and the public option. and he won. draw your own conclusions.

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 9:41 AM

So why didn’t kos endorse him? Why were the netroots pissed off about him being the candidate?

I’m trying to draw my own conclusions, but Owens rubber stamping Pelosi’s agenda doesn’t make much sense.

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 9:48 AM

“campaigning in a traditionally red district,”

So red that a scant year ago, Obama won it by 5 pts.

Spin all you want. The single solitary reason that Obama picked McHugh to be Sec’y of the Army (rather than a dozen other equally qualified persons) is that Rahm saw this seat as a fairly easy Dem pick-up. Well, they picked it up, but it wasn’t easy.

notropis on November 4, 2009 at 9:48 AM

I think of last night as the Reagan/Ford Republican convention in 1976 — a very close call. Next year will be like Reagan 1980.

scrubjay on November 4, 2009 at 9:51 AM

notropis on November 4, 2009 at 9:48 AM

Also a very good point.

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 9:52 AM

I’m really disappointed, I really wanted Hoffman to win… Now Pelosi will have another vote in the House. I too would rather lose with a real Republican than win with a fraud. I’m also wondering if Sarah’s endorsement motivated the Left and I also wonder about vote fraud because Hoffman had been ahead. Well at least Sarah is a true leader which is more than can be said about a lot of the GOP. We have a lot of hard work ahead of us to take this country back from the radicals.

CCRWM on November 4, 2009 at 9:52 AM

scrubjay on November 4, 2009 at 9:51 AM

Excellent comparison!

notropis on November 4, 2009 at 9:53 AM

Did Owens really win, or was he just the accidental beneficiary of a deserved protest against backroom politics?

joedoe on November 4, 2009 at 9:55 AM

You’re a day late and a dollar short. Where were you yesterday, A Axe? Not everyone was so sure about the outcome in New Jersey as you apparently are now, based on the empirical data. If I’d have put money down based on your predictions I mighta had some walking-around money this morning. Thanks a lot for the heads-up, pal.

RD on November 4, 2009 at 9:09 AM

You sound bitter RD. Regardless of your irrational anger at me, the historical trend is not something you or I can make up.

No surprise, sorry.

A Axe on November 4, 2009 at 9:58 AM

Hopefully this won’t be a vote for ObamaCare…

yeah, Owens is the one vote he needed to finally get that majority in the House and Senate and pass obamacare

runner on November 4, 2009 at 10:00 AM

Hoffman had to fight both Parties …to a near draw.

Not bad for coming out of left field a month ago.

2010 FTW!

profitsbeard on November 4, 2009 at 10:02 AM

None of you should care either way. Democrats have 255 (or whatever) seats now. +/-1 means nothing.

Proud Rino on November 4, 2009 at 8:08 AM

For determining leadership it doesn’t make a difference, but when it comes to votes on the issues, one vote can be huge. That’s why in the end, the stand a person has on the issues has to matter more than the D or the R behind their name. If it’s not going to change who gets to be Speaker or control powerful committes, it would be stupid to vote for a R who would vote the wrong way on every issue.

And even if it would decide which is the majority party it would be stupid to vote for a RINO because that person is able to change their party affiliation.

I think we give way too much power to the people who head up the committees. How in the world can one party physically lock out the other party’s committee members?

justincase on November 4, 2009 at 10:02 AM

The single solitary reason that Obama picked McHugh to be Sec’y of the Army (rather than a dozen other equally qualified persons) is that Rahm saw this seat as a fairly easy Dem pick-up. Well, they picked it up, but it wasn’t easy.

notropis on November 4, 2009 at 9:48 AM

no, he picked mchugh because he wanted republicans in his cabinet. (mchugh is eminently qualified for the post, gives obama bragging rights, supports the repeal of DODT, etc.) do you really think rahm predicted that the gop would select a liberal to run in NY23?

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 10:05 AM

do you really think rahm predicted that the gop would select a liberal to run in NY23?

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 10:05 AM

Unlikely, but there is a reason they chose to run a moderate Democrat.

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 10:08 AM

So why didn’t kos endorse him? Why were the netroots pissed off about him being the candidate?

I’m trying to draw my own conclusions, but Owens rubber stamping Pelosi’s agenda doesn’t make much sense.

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 9:48 AM

i don’t read kos and have no insight into the kossacks’ thought process, so i’ll pass. but i know that what you label as “pelosi’s agenda” is known to the rest of the country as obama’s agenda. and like it or not, obama is popular even in rural NY23.

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 10:14 AM

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 10:14 AM

Fair enough. I just assumed you’d have a bit more insight into the thought process in the netroots than I would.

I call it Pelosi’s agenda because she’s the public face right now. President Obama’s been extremely careful not to stamp his image on anything that might go down in flames. But yes, it’s most defnitely his agenda.

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 10:16 AM

No, thanks to Sarah Palin, NY-23 is a Democratic district now.

Proud Rino on November 4, 2009 at 8:12 AM

Actually, the only person to blame for this is the scumbag Scozzofava, with help from the idiots that nominated her and promoted her in in the first place. Which they should never never have done.

Mrs. Palin provided the real conservative with his shot. You have to ask yourself, what real reason could Dede have for staying in the race long after she knew there was no chance? And that was well over a week ago really.

SHE decided to be the spoiler for the conservative, if she couldn’t Manchurian candidate the district, she’s make damned sure the liberal won, by any means necessary.

She is the perfect illustration of why we as citizens MUST vet the candidates. Now with the Net we have the means to do that and to get that information out there.

That new ability drives politicians absolutely insane, because they are used to treating us like mushrooms.

You know about mushrooms, right?

dogsoldier on November 4, 2009 at 10:16 AM

Well, Doug came close in one crazy situation there.

AnninCA on November 4, 2009 at 10:17 AM

he picked mchugh because he wanted republicans in his cabinet

Are you actually this dense, or are you just pretending? I’ll assume, for the sake of a response, that you really are, and explain it.

(My theory is that you wasted all your brain power coming up with a six-syllable screen name, and since then, you’ve got pretty much nothing.)

First off, Secretary of the Army is not a Cabinet-level position.

And secondly, yes, he wanted a few Republicans in his Administration, as long as they come from districts where Rahm informs him that the Democrats have a great chance at a pick-up (for instance, districts that voted for Obama in 2008.)

do you really think rahm predicted that the gop would select a liberal to run in NY23?

I’m sure that Rahm expected a RINO, yes, and figured they could beat one.

The Republican eleven chose Scozzafava precisely because they were afraid and thought they were playing it safe by picking the most liberal candidate in their field. But fiscal stupidity is a no-go with the Republican rank-and-file, and increasingly with the rest of the electorate.

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 10:05 AM

notropis on November 4, 2009 at 10:19 AM

notropis on November 4, 2009 at 10:19 AM

even someone as dense as i am can fathom that having a republican as secy. of the army, along with keeping gates, had greater political benefits than the chance to pick off a house seat and add to an already sizable majority.

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 10:42 AM

Today is the 29th Anniversary of Reagan’s 1980 election victory against Jimmy Carter.

Happy Anniversary!

portlandon on November 4, 2009 at 10:55 AM

Some think this is a third party effort. What is acutally going on is the conservatives are taking back the republican party from the liberal republicans. For the liberal republicans it means defeat in every election until we are strong enough to regain control of the republican party. In the meantime the liberal democrats will have to rule without a clue. That more than anything ensures the success of our effort.

kanda on November 4, 2009 at 10:58 AM

Dear Allahpundit, yes, third-party challenges can be risky, but they have absolutely nothing to do with Glenn Beck.

You had pretty good points to express until you inserted Glenn Beck’s name which didn’t need to be there.

moonsbreath on November 4, 2009 at 9:38 AM

He put it in there, because Beck’s been talking about a third party running for president in 2012. It wasn’t at all erroneous.

It sent the proper message to the GOP establishment. Plus, his losing will hopefully minimze the 3rd party craziness brewing, and convince conservatives to start working to take the party over from the inside (much in the same way the progressives have successfully taken over the Democrat Party).

And on the health care, it does seem very odd that kos would endorse Scozzafava if Owens supported ObamaCare, which was the starting point for my assumptions for his presence in the House not really mattering all that much.

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 9:42 AM

Agreed on both. Conservatives needed this to draw some kind of line in the sand, but they also needed to learn first hand how risky it is.

As to Owens, the man was a total political unknown until recently. That he decided last minute to embrace the public option to gain Dede voters doesn’t strike me as a principled stance.

and like it or not, obama is popular even in rural NY23.

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 10:14 AM

So popular that he helped a Democrat get elected governor… oh, wait.

even someone as dense as i am can fathom that having a republican as secy. of the army, along with keeping gates, had greater political benefits than the chance to pick off a house seat and add to an already sizable majority.

sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 10:42 AM

That doesn’t mean that picking off a house seat wasn’t also an advantage that was considered. Region matters just as much as politics.

Esthier on November 4, 2009 at 11:08 AM

campaigning in a traditionally red district, owens endorsed the bill and the public option. and he won. draw your own conclusions.
sesquipedalian on November 4, 2009 at 9:41 AM

And, it seems that more people voted against Owens than for him. Split tickets are a bear. Draw your own conclusions…

joejm65 on November 4, 2009 at 11:29 AM

How is a thread with 2200 comments AND the humpbot NOT in Top Picks?

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 11:35 AM

(4) the win in New Jersey, where The One staked his own political capital in campaigning for Corzine, was huge compared to the loss here

Depends. If you’re mostly a “Republican”, then I agree. If you’re more of a Beck/Palin Tea Party type, this loss was devastating.

orange on November 4, 2009 at 11:35 AM

I like how this thread is now getting pushed to the bottom of the page despite it being the most popular thread on the front page by a large margin. Bububu it doesn’t matter, conservative victory!

Typhonsentra on November 4, 2009 at 11:38 AM

How is a thread with 2200 comments AND the humpbot NOT in Top Picks?

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 11:35 AM

Good point. It’s been way too long since we got a hump bot. We need to highlight this.

Depends. If you’re mostly a “Republican”, then I agree. If you’re more of a Beck/Palin Tea Party type, this loss was devastating.

orange on November 4, 2009 at 11:35 AM

That’s likely true, but if you’re the latter, then you probably also saw the other wins are huge as well. I don’t think Beck/Palin Tea Partiers are too depressed this morning.

Esthier on November 4, 2009 at 11:41 AM

How is a thread with 2200 comments AND the humpbot NOT in Top Picks?

Not only should this thread not get buried down at the bottom of the page (scrolling on my phone is a genuine timesuck) but the addition of the Humpbot should be highlighted in red as an “Update.”

Tom_OC on November 4, 2009 at 11:45 AM

How is a thread with 2200 comments AND the humpbot NOT in Top Picks?

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 11:35 AM

Because you guys lost in a humiliating fashion. That could be why.

crr6 on November 4, 2009 at 12:53 PM

OH MY….TOO GOOD TO CHECK:

Prudish, ex-beauty queen and failed governor unable to help crappy speaking, yellow-toothed “conservative”.

What a shocka!!!!

Good4Onan on November 4, 2009 at 1:09 PM

Because you guys lost in a humiliating fashion. That could be why.

crr6 on November 4, 2009 at 12:53 PM

Allah’s a pessemist by nature, so if he’s bringing out the humpbot for the first time since amnesty went down in flames the night couldn’t have been too bad.

And do you mean Republicans lost in humiliating fashion? Because I agree with that. However, Hoffman did just fine, and his campaign accomplished its primary objective – ensuring Scozzafava didn’t run as an incumbent next year – no matter how you want to spin it.

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2009 at 1:12 PM

I would not be so quick to say that Hoffman has lost.
After they get done sorting through ACORN’s frauded absentee ballots, then they have to count THIS whole county!

I have not seen this anywhere on MSM

Last Update: 3:07 am

Fulton County (WSYR-TV) – NewsChannel 9 has learned voting machines in Fulton County, which is a part of the 23rd Congressional District, have been impounded, after the machines were not working property, the Fulton County Board of Elections confirms.

The county was forced to switch over to paper ballots.

They were not planning on counting any votes Tuesday night. We’re told by the Board of Elections, the paper ballots cannot be touched until the absentee ballots are opened a week from Tuesday.

patriotparty1 on November 4, 2009 at 1:18 PM

LESSON LEARNED!

NO MORE RINO’S!!!!

SDarchitect on November 4, 2009 at 7:24 AM

You did not learn the lesson.

Proud Rino on November 4, 2009 at 7:25 AM

Two possible lessons here:

1) Republicans will lose an election hugely if they nominate a candidate unacceptable to their voters

2) Conservatives should shut up and vote for whoever their leaders pick for them

Obviously, you went with lesson 2. So how’d that work out for you? Your candidate got 6% of the vote

Those who learned lesson 1 will win elections next time.

Those who stick with lesson 2, such as you, will lose.

Because even though conservatives are willing to overlook a flawed but decent candidate who can get elected, they’re not willing to put in a closet Democrat who wants to vote in universal healthcare, Card Check, Cap and Trade, and promote abortion.

If the Republican party walks away from this with the lesson that ignoring their base is a good idea, then the Republican party is doomed. If they learn the lesson that they can’t just ignore their base, then they can win big in 2010.

You would think this would be obvious from the McCain debacle, but apparently some in the GOP are learning challenged.

Such as you.

tom on November 4, 2009 at 1:38 PM

Axelrod on MSNBC dismissing Virgina and New Jersey, but saying NY-23 sends a real message to other Democrats. lol lol lol lol lol

joedoe on November 4, 2009 at 1:40 PM

It is becoming more and more apparant all of this stalling and coverage of health care is a smoke screen. Meanwhile Obama has moved on to education.

He now knows his radical bills are not going to work, so he has taken his losses and moved on to the future and what is the future? The children. Watch the stories of money going to teacher unions for education.
And anyone with children needs to get on their local school board to have them ask the NEA just what the Hell they think this is, and what they are? Are they teachers, or frickin socialist radicals? If they are, they need to get out of our childrens schools NOW!

NEA raves to teachers about Alinsky ‘guidebook’
Recommends texts by radical community organizer who ‘encouraged positive social change’

© 2009 WorldNetDaily
Saul Alinsky

The National Education Association has made a glowing assessment of radical socialist community organizer Saul Alinsky and is enthusiastically recommending American public school teachers read two of his books, including one dedicated to Satan.

On its website, the NEA dubs Alinsky “an inspiration to anyone contemplating action in their community! And to every organizer!”

It recommends Alinsky’s “Reveille for Radicals,” a 1946 book about the principles and tactics of “community organizing,” and “Rules for Radicals,” a 1971 text that articulated a socialist strategy for gaining political power to redistribute wealth from the “haves” to the “have-nots.”

The NEA, the largest labor union in the United States, represents public school teachers, college and university faculty, retired education employees and college students preparing to become teachers.

The association describes Alinsky as a “master political agitator, tactical planner and social organizer” who wrote a “guidebook for those who are out to change things.”

patriotparty1 on November 4, 2009 at 1:59 PM

NJ is not the topic of this thread.

However NJ definitely was a kick in Obama’s balls.

Dave Rywall on November 4, 2009 at 9:16 AM

VA was a kick in Obama’s balls. The DNC Chair, who is the former Governor and was supposed to shore this state up for the Democrats, ran a horrible campaign and allowed Republican sweeps throughout the state, reversing a decade’s worth of Democrat gains. McDonnell was a conservative candidate, and he hardly sent the “only moderates will win” message the Democrats and their media allies are pushing.

Scozzafava was to the left of Owens, and with the establishment Republicans behind her, she would have been impossible to unseat in 2010. The district is more up for grabs now that the NRCC and NRC have seen how well Hoffman played there. He went from obscurity to the front of the race, with only the bizarre endorsement of the spoiler who dropped out and campaigned for the Democrat pushing Owens over the top. The GOP will have this seat next year.

alliebobbitt on November 4, 2009 at 3:31 PM

Axelrod on MSNBC dismissing Virgina and New Jersey, but saying NY-23 sends a real message to other Democrats. lol lol lol lol lol

joedoe on November 4, 2009 at 1:40 PM

Newt Gingrich, Michael Steele, John Boehner and Dede Scozzafava can all die in a fire.

alliebobbitt on November 4, 2009 at 3:33 PM

Because you guys lost in a humiliating fashion. That could be why.

crr6 on November 4, 2009 at 12:53 PM

The NRCC and the NRC lost in a humiliating fashion when they wasted nearly a million dollars on a candidate who dropped out and endorsed the Democrat. Is there going to be a Dede Scozzafava there to act as a spolier for the Democrats in every 2010 election? I don’t think so.

alliebobbitt on November 4, 2009 at 3:36 PM

The Thompsons, Armey, Pawlenty, Gingrich, Boehner, Steel, etc. endorsements did nothing, but that one from Sarah killed the guy’s chances by less than 3 points. lol lol lol

The spin and artificial gloating about NY-23 is making me dizzy.

joedoe on November 4, 2009 at 3:54 PM

I think the RNC should send a bill to the DNC for the money they poured into Scuzzyfavors war chest.

joedoe on November 4, 2009 at 3:59 PM

alliebobbitt on November 4, 2009 at 3:33 PM

What a disturbingly disgusting thing to say about fellow human beings. The system we cherish dictates that we allow fellow citizens to have their own opinions without being persecuted for them. I know you’re nobody, but these people have stepped up and served their country. They deserve respect, even if I don’t agree with them. You’re obviously part of the Obama generation my friend. No class or civility whatsoever.

mike_NC9 on November 4, 2009 at 4:11 PM

How the ballot appeared to the voters in NY-23, because Owens represented two parties, and dropped-out Dede too – confusing to say the least:

1. Democratic – William L. Owens
2. Republican – Dede Scozzafava
3. Independence – Dede Scozzafava
4. Conservative – Douglass
5. Working Families – William L. Owens

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2009 at 4:26 PM

Correction

4. Conservative – Douglas L. Hoffman

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2009 at 4:28 PM

Has every single Troll we have come on this thread with talking points from Axelrod yet?

kingsjester on November 4, 2009 at 4:28 PM

Has every single Troll we have come on this thread with talking points from Axelrod yet?

kingsjester on November 4, 2009 at 4:28 PM

We’re missing that one shrew, whatsitsname Hyundai.

Dark-Star on November 4, 2009 at 5:43 PM

Frankly, the GOP so messed up NY that the comments are deserved. It’s hilarious that the dropped GOP candidate is more liberal than the Dem who won.

But, it’s over.

AnninCA on November 4, 2009 at 5:44 PM

No, thanks to Sarah Palin, NY-23 is a Democratic district now…
Proud Rino on November 4, 2009 at 8:12 AM

A Democrat won. If Scozzafava had won, a more liberal Democrat would have still been elected.
Hoffman was the only chance to get a conservative in that seat and the RINO’s prevented it. Sarah tried to save it. End of story.

JellyToast on November 4, 2009 at 5:58 PM

Depends. If you’re mostly a “Republican”, then I agree. If you’re more of a Beck/Palin Tea Party type, this loss was devastating.

orange on November 4, 2009 at 11:35 AM

…says the liberal spin machine. Spin, spin, my pretties. It’s amusing as hell to see them try to make lemonade out of last night.

evergreen on November 4, 2009 at 6:20 PM

Hoffman is our Alamo and Obama’s Waterloo.

strickler on November 4, 2009 at 8:16 PM

Sorry if I’m repeating someone else here, but….

It seems to me that the liberals have infiltrated the GOP in NY-23 and tried to insure that a liberal would be elected by having a liberal run as a Republican against a liberal Democrat. It seems the fix was in….

strickler on November 4, 2009 at 8:18 PM

“Speaking” as a Tea Party type (not so much into Beck), the Hoffman loss is disappointing, but understandable in retrospect. Doug Hoffman seems like a really nice and trustworthy guy, but he’s a geek and was not able to personally draw people to his campaign.

The Hoffman Campaign’s focus on national issues to the detriment of local issues did not help. This lack of understanding about local issues in a far flung district was never corrected.

Finally, I don’t think Doug Hoffman did himself any favors in a mostly rural and very northern district by appearing on Hannity with the Thompsons. Not a good image for the “regular guy”, rubbing elbows with the rich and famous.

Because of these, the Hoffman Campaign failed to close the deal.

Message to Tea Partiers, better have real answers prepared to address real concerns at the state and local level. Being anti-big government will not by itself win elections. Candidates better be equipped to persuasively explain how the economy is held back when the government picks the winners and losers instead of innovation and market demand. And where an issue is indeed within the charter and mission of government, the candidate better know that issue and be convinced to fight for his constituents.

Doug Hoffman is not the right candidate for NY-23. I just hope the Republican Party up there has learned something about the sensibilities of its conservative base. Because they get to do this all over again next year, with a primary, for which they will no doubt pre-select their favorite. They are probably feeling somewhat vindicated by the Hoffman loss, and will therefore do something stupid, again.

exdeadhead on November 4, 2009 at 8:26 PM

Hoffman is our Alamo and Obama’s Waterloo.

strickler on November 4, 2009 at 8:16 PM

Alamo is a good analogy. With all odds against us, we fought a much closer fight than expected thanks to Palin and other conservatives riding in to call a pig a pig. Massive victories in NJ and VA shows what will happen when everything isn’t stacked against us. Much like the Battle of San Jacinto, it is then that we easily kick their ass.

ray on November 4, 2009 at 8:34 PM

He can always fall back on his lasix practice. One can only be amazed at the cocky confidence exuded by laser eye surgeons who operate on themselves.

It’s either that or snagging the lead in the remake of The Incredible Mr. Limpet.

pc on November 4, 2009 at 10:13 PM

Let me reiterate – The idiot RINOs that voted for Scuzzy, even though she had withdrawn from the race, can be credited with allowing the DEM to win.

I agree – those people shouldn’t have been allowed to vote for the person they wanted to win.

Proud Rino on November 4, 2009 at 8:46 AM

If Scozzafava’s name had been removed from the ballot Hoffman would probably have received most of the lazy and/or brain-damaged vote that was recorded for Scozzafava, giving Hoffman the victory.

Instead history will ether record Hoffman’s forcing Scozzafava out of the race, as the massive electrical shock that restored a healthy beat to the Republican heart, or as the beginning of the Republican parties death throws.

darktood on November 5, 2009 at 11:39 AM

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