Open thread: NY-23; Update: Fox News calls it for Owens; Update: Hoffman concedes
posted at 8:52 pm on November 3, 2009 by Allahpundit
Here we go. Could be a 10-point win for Owens, could be a 10-point win for Hoffman. InTrade is betting heavily on the conservative.
The Watertown Daily Times will be updating as results come in, but you’re advised to check Newzjunky too. They’ve been all over the Hoffman saga since day one.
I don’t want to raise expectations too much, but if DH pulls this off and Christie squeaks through in New Jersey, we’re getting a humpbot cameo tonight. For the first time in a long, long time.
Update: The WDT results page is loading slowly. Try this one instead.
Update: Results are coming in very slowly but apparently exit polls had Hoffman by three, 50/47.
Update: With more than 10 percent of the vote in, Hoffman’s … down by seven. According to Marc Ambinder, Republicans in the district are very nervous. We’re not actually going to get a Christie upset and a Hoffman defeat, are we?
Update: Gingrich is writing his jeremiad about third-party challenges as we speak. From Dave Weigel:
WHOA – Hoffman splitting Madison County, where he was leading 2-1 in Siena Poll. Getting ready to say “Congressman Bill Owens.”
Update: A much-needed shot of hope from Erick Erickson: “Just talked to ppl close to Hoffman. They think he’s won. Owens votes in. Their sampling tracks with what we’re seeing.”
Update: At least one Hoffman supporter thinks it’s over.
Update: Hope and change — Hoffman narrowing the gap?
The Plattsburgh attorney has 57,050 votes compared to Conservative Doug Hoffman, a Lake Placid CPA, with 54,538 votes…
There are more than 10,000 absentee votes to still be counted…
Owens is maintaining a 48 percent to 46 percent lead.
Update: Chuck Todd notes that there may not be a call in this race tonight given that the absentee ballots won’t be counted until tomorrow. Fair enough, but if Hoffman’s still behind by three or four thousand votes at evening’s end, how likely is it that he’s going to make up the difference by winning 75 percent of those ballots?
Update: FNC has called it for the Democrat. Points to take away from the loss: (1) PPP’s last poll was way, waaaay off; (2) Scozzafava’s endorsement must have had some impact on her supporters, as it erased the five-point lead Hoffman held in the last Siena poll after she dropped out; (3) third-party challenges, while sometimes warranted, are a very risky proposition (attention Glenn Beck!); (4) the win in New Jersey, where The One staked his own political capital in campaigning for Corzine, was huge compared to the loss here; and (5) as I said over the weekend, the actual result of this race is unimportant. The point in torpedoing Scozzafava and swinging the GOP behind Hoffman was to send a message to the Republican leadership that only fiscal conservatives will be tolerated henceforth, and that message has been sent even with Owens winning a squeaker. The loss is disappointing but it’s a detail on an otherwise great night.
So great, in fact, that it deserves something special. This special.
Update: He’s not going to make up the difference in absentees, especially since many of them were sent in when Scozzafava was still in the race. So the time has come.









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http://www.unoriginal.co.uk/footage151_5.html
But ted c at 8:59 had a far better example.
hehehehehehe
wyntre on November 3, 2009 at 9:17 PM
O! back to school
back to school
to prove to my liberal friends that i’m not a tool
I have my backpack on
my boots tied tight
I hope I see a liberal
so I can get in a fight!
Night all I have to go to class.
Goooo HOFFMAN!!!
alohapundit on November 3, 2009 at 9:17 PM
Ha ha!!
abobo on November 3, 2009 at 9:17 PM
Probably not. Those machines suck and NY’ers haven’t had a new machine in over 100 years and don’t know how to use the new ones.
Dusty on November 3, 2009 at 9:17 PM
Dear Mr. President,
Nice Try.
Sincrely,
The Conservative Majority
tatersalad on November 3, 2009 at 9:17 PM
Today’s mood is so different than from a year ago!!!
deidre on November 3, 2009 at 9:18 PM
I have a feeling that tomorrow morning’s headlines will read:
Either that, or he will bump up his departure schedule to Asia…
… and take all of the press with him.
Seven Percent Solution on November 3, 2009 at 9:18 PM
Just when the Rats get over the massacre of to nite this is going to dive them to Dante’s Inferno.
Clyde5445 on November 3, 2009 at 9:18 PM
Hoffmann out to the early lead with 92.5% of the votes after 40 votes counted.
lol
Ronnie on November 3, 2009 at 9:18 PM
Hoffman 38
Owens 56
txag92 on November 3, 2009 at 9:19 PM
Some guy claiming to be from New Jersey called into Hannity today saying that all votes in the morning from some district/s could not be counted due to faulty machines and urging people to go recast them. O.o
pannw on November 3, 2009 at 9:19 PM
Being a newbee and not having had the pleasure of seeing the humpbot does it lubricate or cleanse itself with hoppes#9?
fourdeucer on November 3, 2009 at 9:20 PM
Bulls***! I have Drudge on right now!
newton on November 3, 2009 at 9:21 PM
Do the Humpty Dance.
Alden Pyle on November 3, 2009 at 9:21 PM
link?
splink on November 3, 2009 at 9:21 PM
Now, now. Tonight’s not the time to punish the Bishop.
sulla on November 3, 2009 at 9:22 PM
“I’ve decided to travel to cities outside of the typical book tour venues, and I hope to cover as much of the country as I can.”
Sorry with is the part I wanted in bold.
Clyde5445 on November 3, 2009 at 9:22 PM
Oh stinking great….
deidre on November 3, 2009 at 9:22 PM
The Virginia Slims are being smoked by the whole-pack in the Oval Office tonight.
Bishop on November 3, 2009 at 9:22 PM
Fox News Channel ticker
uknowmorethanme on November 3, 2009 at 9:22 PM
Does anyone know if there is a more liberal county in that district?
Brat4life on November 3, 2009 at 9:23 PM
link?
splink on November 3, 2009 at 9:21 PM
AP provided it above.
txag92 on November 3, 2009 at 9:23 PM
From the look of him lately…
… I would say he needs to put down the pipe.
Seven Percent Solution on November 3, 2009 at 9:24 PM
You can try here, too.
Dusty on November 3, 2009 at 9:25 PM
Can someone, for the last freaking time, please tell Michael Steele to STFU and at least let the adults, like Palin, or yes, Pawlenty or even Mittens do the talking.
Jesus, Mike! Now’s the time to knock Obama’s teeth on the sidewalk. You’re not here to be a gentleman about these things!
victor82 on November 3, 2009 at 9:25 PM
I want Hoffman to win so bad!
deidre on November 3, 2009 at 9:26 PM
Luntz focus group: Vast majority of McDonnell voters based their vote on Obama’s incompetence.
Norwegian on November 3, 2009 at 9:26 PM
First results have Owens up 56.9% to 38.5% with Scozzafava getting 4.6%.
HeroesforGhosts on November 3, 2009 at 9:26 PM
Fox is saying:
Owens 57%
Hoffman 38%
Vntnrse on November 3, 2009 at 9:27 PM
The votes are really 37 votes to 25 votes. Looks like only one polling place.
Enoxo on November 3, 2009 at 9:27 PM
Things are not looking good for Hoffman. But, I’m not giving up hope for him. Fingers and toes crossed.
milwife88 on November 3, 2009 at 9:28 PM
It’s all been explained as rigorous and competitive basketball games.
Sure it is, President Skeletor, sure it is.
Bishop on November 3, 2009 at 9:28 PM
Soooooo…
When do our kids start learning songs about Conservatives and Republicans?
Seven Percent Solution on November 3, 2009 at 9:28 PM
What percentage is that? Because a double digit Hoffman loss would put a serious damper on the night.
BadgerHawk on November 3, 2009 at 9:28 PM
That’s what was on the ballot tonight, just a few lines behind conservatism.
ted c on November 3, 2009 at 9:28 PM
Unfortunately, the voting machine problems reported in NY and NJ are probably true – my husband’s uncle is running in a local NY election, and he’s received a number of calls today from supporters who tried to vote for him but were unable to do so because of faulty machines.
*chews nails*
Animator Girl on November 3, 2009 at 9:29 PM
<1%, Badgerhawk
Vera on November 3, 2009 at 9:29 PM
God, if Hoffman loses this–even with a Christie win–I’ll be annoyed.
Enoxo on November 3, 2009 at 9:29 PM
Those are strange numbers. Didn’t polling have Hoffman up big?
csdeven on November 3, 2009 at 9:29 PM
Wait a minute….Colmes is President?
Fallen Sparrow on November 3, 2009 at 9:29 PM
Bill Owens(Dem) 37
Dede Scozzafava(GOP) 3
D. Hoffman(Con) 25
Brat4life on November 3, 2009 at 9:30 PM
Even so, I call fraud if Hoffman loses by double digits – no way were the polls THAT far off.
Animator Girl on November 3, 2009 at 9:30 PM
Streaming results of gay marriage fight in Maine.
http://www.bangordailynews.com/electionresults.html
Spathi on November 3, 2009 at 9:30 PM
Hello again, chuck, doesn’t it feel different from a year ago?
Fortunata on November 3, 2009 at 9:30 PM
Less than 1% reporting.
Clyde5445 on November 3, 2009 at 9:30 PM
That one moron in the second row wouldn’t STFU. What a clueless fool – with an attitude, too. But no one wanted to tell him that he didn’t know what the heck he was talking about and that idiots like him voting are exactly the problem.
progressoverpeace on November 3, 2009 at 9:31 PM
If Christie is up by almost 10 points in NJ, there is no way Hoffman doesn’t take this.
jhffmn on November 3, 2009 at 9:31 PM
Jake Tapper reports:
LMAO
Norwegian on November 3, 2009 at 9:31 PM
It’s just less than 1% reporting…
Enoxo on November 3, 2009 at 9:31 PM
According to Fox, less than 1% reporting in NY. It is still early in the game. Fingers and toes still crossed.
milwife88 on November 3, 2009 at 9:31 PM
WDN now has Hoffman up 84 to 15, but since one county seems to have 261 votes to Hoffman and 0 to Owens, I’m thinking that it’s some kind of error.
HeroesforGhosts on November 3, 2009 at 9:31 PM
When they bring the Pledge of Allegiance and the Star Spangled Banner back into the government run schools.
csdeven on November 3, 2009 at 9:31 PM
52% to 42% in NJ christie leads with 36% precincts reporting
http://elections.nj.com/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_state/NJ_Governor_1103.html?SITE=NJNEWELN&SECTION=POLITICS
unseen on November 3, 2009 at 9:32 PM
The Watertown Daily Times has Hoffman up big:
http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/
Robert_Paulson on November 3, 2009 at 9:32 PM
<1% reporting
Clyde5445 on November 3, 2009 at 9:32 PM
It looks like those numbers are from Madison County. Anyone know anything about it?
Vera on November 3, 2009 at 9:32 PM
Bill Owens(Dem) 485
Dede Scozzafava(GOP) 37
D. Hoffman(Con) 340
Brat4life on November 3, 2009 at 9:32 PM
Sounded like Burfa Lovis’ poodle
macncheez on November 3, 2009 at 9:32 PM
I was right, Owens got more votes from that county, it’s now 52-44 Owens.
HeroesforGhosts on November 3, 2009 at 9:33 PM
Dumb question, but do voting blocs really cluster in neighborhoods like that, so that individual polling places can swing so dramatically one way? I suppose it makes sense, and that the balance is greater with a larger sample, but it still seems odd to me. Go figure, I don’t understand demographics.
Animator Girl on November 3, 2009 at 9:33 PM
51% Owens
45% Hoffman
<1% in
Enoxo on November 3, 2009 at 9:33 PM
That’s really good….
BigWyo on November 3, 2009 at 9:34 PM
Vntnrse spent hard earned money on Hoffman! He better win or I’m gonna be Pixxed!!! :)
Vntnrse on November 3, 2009 at 9:34 PM
It’s strange that there are 2 sites with different numbers.
Brat4life on November 3, 2009 at 9:34 PM
53% in, 49-45, Christie
artist on November 3, 2009 at 9:34 PM
It’s all Clinton county so far.
It’s a blue county.
Ronnie on November 3, 2009 at 9:34 PM
and I thought my F.I.L. lived in Florida, go figure
NY Conservative on November 3, 2009 at 9:35 PM
Well, I just looked up their election results from last year, and they went for Obama.
Vera on November 3, 2009 at 9:35 PM
It’s a huge district since it is so sparsely populated and there will be a lot of differences based on where it comes from.
Dusty on November 3, 2009 at 9:35 PM
Relax on Hoffman – he’s down but less than 1 percent of the vote has been counted. His intrade number is steady at 85. You wanna see hurt? Check Corzine now collapsing to 14 percent on intrade.
This might be a clean sweep.
HondaV65 on November 3, 2009 at 9:35 PM
Err 5% I mean. For some reason I saw Christie having 10% more votes Corzine and pulled a math fail ending up with him up by 10% and not 5%.
jhffmn on November 3, 2009 at 9:36 PM
Politico has Hoffman down by 5%, with 1% in.
MB4 on November 3, 2009 at 9:36 PM
Is Obama watching McD now ?
Naaahhhh
wink /
macncheez on November 3, 2009 at 9:36 PM
Bill Owens(Dem) 675
Dede Scozzafava(GOP) 52
D. Hoffman(Con) 601
Brat4life on November 3, 2009 at 9:36 PM
we have more to lose if Hoffman loses IMO. They’ll make such a HUGE deal how they haven’t selected a democrat in that area for a very, very long time and how “conservatism” isn’t the answer, etc.
deidre on November 3, 2009 at 9:37 PM
49% to 44% in NJ christie leads with 44% precincts reporting
http://elections.nj.com/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_state/NJ_Governor_1103.html?SITE=NJNEWELN&SECTION=POLITICS
unseen on November 3, 2009 at 9:32 PM
unseen on November 3, 2009 at 9:37 PM
50-47 Owens right now with some votes from three counties in. Actually, it’s like 49.7-46.6, if neither gets over 50% will they have a runnoff?
HeroesforGhosts on November 3, 2009 at 9:38 PM
1% of districts reporting in…and some people here are already posting numbers.
Guys…have a drink or a smoke, for Chrissakes…
MadisonConservative on November 3, 2009 at 9:38 PM
Repubs scrooood up NY-23
GOP needs an enema and a purge
macncheez on November 3, 2009 at 9:38 PM
Ballots are in, election conceded and he was still campaigning. He was a tool.
bluemarlin on November 3, 2009 at 9:39 PM
Easy going, folks. It’s in the hands of the voters now. It is what it is. Close race.
victor82 on November 3, 2009 at 9:39 PM
Politico
Scoz. ~4
Owens ~51
Hof. ~45
Looks tight…
http://www.politico.com/
MeatHeadinCA on November 3, 2009 at 9:39 PM
Bob Jones University Online
Hoffman 51%
Satan 49%
simplesimon on November 3, 2009 at 9:39 PM
I am and it is NOT HELPING.
yellow_railroad on November 3, 2009 at 9:40 PM
From NYTimes…
Jeff2161 on November 3, 2009 at 9:40 PM
58% in, 49-44, Christie
artist on November 3, 2009 at 9:40 PM
Was that THE cousin Pookie ?
macncheez on November 3, 2009 at 9:40 PM
Quote of the night! :-)
gary4205 on November 3, 2009 at 9:41 PM
Anyone calling the NYC race? And does it matter?
MeatHeadinCA on November 3, 2009 at 9:41 PM
You want to see ignorance? This is an email from a 30+ year old Californian liberal woman I am trying to have a rational discussion with.
From her:
Bwahahahahaha!!!! I am not religious. I simply corrected her on the context of the passage in the bible referring to “rendering that which is Caesar unto Caesar”. AND SHE IS THE ONE WHO BROUGHT UP THE BIBLE!
Here is my latest response to her:
THIS is the mentality of the people who vote for Obama and are pushing for Obama care.
Truly psychologically damaged.
csdeven on November 3, 2009 at 9:41 PM
Don’t get too worked up about the early numbers, if you look at it, it seems to be only a few hundred votes.
Dark Eden on November 3, 2009 at 9:41 PM
Sometimes even a snarky fool comes closer to revealing the deeper truth than intended.
LegendHasIt on November 3, 2009 at 9:42 PM
Numbers haven’t changed for this race for awhile.
Enoxo on November 3, 2009 at 9:42 PM
I think virtually everyone here is thinking exactly this!
Vntnrse on November 3, 2009 at 9:42 PM
It looks like Hoffman is winning in Madison County, broke even last year. He’s behind in Clinton County, but it went 60% for Obama last year. They reported the most liberal county in the district first, it appears.
Vera on November 3, 2009 at 9:42 PM
It’s 5 precincts from a blue county.
It’s a very good start.
Ronnie on November 3, 2009 at 9:43 PM
I understand the enthusiasm, but I would warn people that this won’t change a whole lot.
In fact, a GOP sweep tonight may work against us. I don’t see the emboldening feeling lasting until 2010 and 2012. More likely, IMO, we’ll become complacent again and perhaps think “the country has smartened up”, which will lead to lower than necessary turnout.
Also, none of this will do much to prevent Obama from destroying the country as he intends. Obama and all of the President’s Marxists and all of the President’s Radicals won’t stop developing the framework they’re actively working on.
Have we forgotten the WH guest list already? Why is the number 1 visitor the radical SEIU head there so often they set an extra plate at dinner just in case he stops by.
Anyway, back to the point. Getting some guys with an R after their names doesn’t pay down $105 TRILLION in unfunded liabilities. I still feel that it seems anything short of a revolt is going to fix the mess we’re in. We have a better chance of that, I think, without any victories until the next national elections when all of the damage is further realized.
The only “good” thing is that this truly won’t slow Obama down in the least. He hates this country and will do all he can to destroy it. So we don’t really have to worry about him reacting to this by toning down the socialism. He’ll continue these radical policies and hopefully more Americans will wake up. The scary thing is, he will be trying to buy reelection with the stimulus money, the vast majority of which still hasn’t been spent. Ever wonder why? He needs to use it to manufacture a bogus recovery over the course of the 2012 election cycle.
RightWinged on November 3, 2009 at 9:43 PM
The GOP should have never, ever thrown their support behind that woman. When they did, they showed nothing but a lack of spine.
There’s gotta be a purge of the GOP, ASAP.
newton on November 3, 2009 at 9:44 PM
54% Owens
46% Hoffman
2% in
Enoxo on November 3, 2009 at 9:44 PM
Has anyone noticed that the InTrade price for the “public option passed by Dec 31″ has plunged to about 7 in the last couple of hours? LOL. Good times.
DaveS on November 3, 2009 at 9:44 PM
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