Early exit polls: Obama a factor, but not the main factor

posted at 6:48 pm on November 3, 2009 by Allahpundit

Even I didn’t expect him to be the main factor in local races, but here are the numbers for those who did.

Still, majorities of voters in both states (55 percent in Virginia and 60 percent in New Jersey) said President Obama was not a factor in their vote today. Those who said Mr. Obama was a factor in New Jersey divided as to whether their vote was a vote for the president (19 percent) or against him (20 percent). In Virginia, slightly fewer voters said their vote was for Mr. Obama (18 percent) than against him (24 percent).

Among Corzine supporters in New Jersey, 38 percent said one reason for their vote was to express support for Mr. Obama, while 39 percent of Christie voters said it was to express opposition to Mr. Obama.

In Virginia, among backers of the Democratic candidate, Creigh Deeds, 38 percent said their vote was in part to support the president, while 42 percent of McDonnell voters said their vote was in part to oppose the president.

He won by six points in Virginia last year, remember. Two thoughts here. One: You would think that a guy who appeared multiple times on the trail in two states that he carried just a year ago could generate enough excitement that the number who voted to show some support for him would exceed the number who voted to show opposition. But you would be wrong, wouldn’t you? Two: The problem with asking whether Obama was a factor in someone’s vote is that there’s a disconnect between the man himself and his policies. CNN noted it this morning: “The survey suggests that the president’s approval rating remains over 50 percent even though most Americans disapprove of how Obama is handling the economy, health care, Afghanistan, Iraq, unemployment, illegal immigration and the federal budget deficit.” And in fact, in tonight’s exit polls we find this eye-popper:

A majority of voters in both states said they are worried about the direction of the nation’s economy over the next year. 85 percent of Virginia voters said they are worried, as are 90 percent of voters in New Jersey. These percentages were similar on Election Day in 2008.

A year later and no Change. Was that a “factor” in people’s votes tonight? I’m going to guess, since we’re cracking 85 percent on the low end of those who are worried, that it was. Oh, one other polling number from CNN worth noting: The Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot among registered voters is down to six points, the lowest it’s been since 2004. The last poll taken by CNN before the 1994 elections showed the Democrats by three. Perspective.

Update: Economy, economy, economy: 46 percent of Virginians and 31 percent of Jerseyans say it was their most important issue. Recall that Rasmussen found today among likely voters that 45 percent say Obama is now responsible for the state of the economy versus 49 percent for Bush, a trend that’ll get worse for The One with each passing day.

25 percent of Virginians and 18 percent of Jerseyans say their number one issue is ObamaCare.


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McDonnell needs to maintain 64% in Henrico County (Richmond), or it’s going to be a lot of crow eating in a lot of corners.

SouthernGent on November 3, 2009 at 7:27 PM

Headline on CNN: Divided Republicans hope to win big.

On a related note, on a national level, I’m hopeful that the “unified Democrats” continue to have trouble passing anything with their vast majorities and continue to blame it all on us “divided Republicans”

stldave on November 3, 2009 at 7:27 PM

If you are using Intrade as a barometer, then you should be happy because McDonnel is at 99%

sandee on November 3, 2009 at 7:27 PM

McDonnell is mopping the floor with Mr. Deeds.

I love it.

hillbillyjim on November 3, 2009 at 7:27 PM

5% precincts reporting now in VA that McD is still up by 2 to 1 margin.

ted c on November 3, 2009 at 7:28 PM

McDonnell needs to maintain 64% in Henrico County (Richmond), or it’s going to be a lot of crow eating in a lot of corners.

SouthernGent on November 3, 2009 at 7:27 PM

You’re totally killing the buzz I was starting to build.

BadgerHawk on November 3, 2009 at 7:28 PM

Corzine down to 65 at InTrade.
TXUS on November 3, 2009 at 7:16 PM

what’s Intrade?

ted c on November 3, 2009 at 7:17 PM

On-line gaming center. Intrade.com

TXUS on November 3, 2009 at 7:29 PM

We get the bears in place in the tora bora mountain caves.
It would be too perfect if we released the last 215 from Gitmo back into the wild of the Afghan Pak Border, right after we gave them all a rub down with say SPAM.

Dr Evil on November 3, 2009 at 7:23 PM

I’ll buy the Spam.

katy the mean old lady on November 3, 2009 at 7:29 PM

CNN: Obama has no plans to watch election returns tonight

hahahahahahaha

faraway on November 3, 2009 at 7:30 PM

“One: You would think that a guy who appeared multiple times on the trail in two states that he carried just a year ago could generate enough excitement that the number who voted to show some support for him would exceed the number who voted to show opposition.”

The coat tails of an empty suit is no better than the bumper of a parked car. If it ain’t going nowhere, it ain’t going nowhere.

Dusty on November 3, 2009 at 7:30 PM

CNN: Obama has no plans to watch election returns tonight

hahahahahahaha

faraway on November 3, 2009 at 7:30 PM

He’ll just watch the loops of his own election night that runs continuously at the WH….

ted c on November 3, 2009 at 7:31 PM

Dusty on November 3, 2009 at 7:30 PM

Prophecy.

ted c on November 3, 2009 at 7:31 PM

[faraway on November 3, 2009 at 7:30 PM]

Get the man another box of popcorn Pepto Dismal tablets.

Dusty on November 3, 2009 at 7:33 PM

ALERT: ELIOT SPITZER ON MSNBC

faraway on November 3, 2009 at 7:24 PM

faraway: Did they bring cameras into the prison!ahem!:)

canopfor on November 3, 2009 at 7:33 PM

You’re totally killing the buzz I was starting to build.

BadgerHawk on November 3, 2009 at 7:28 PM

Sorry…not meaning to be. At least McDonnell is doing better in Henrico County than McCain did… ;)

SouthernGent on November 3, 2009 at 7:33 PM

VA Election returns. McDonnell 63%, Deeds 36%

http://tinyurl.com/yfpypju

William Amos on November 3, 2009 at 7:33 PM

I like how the RNC still has ads for McDonnell up in the corner here at HotAir.

Awesome use of those donations.

BadgerHawk on November 3, 2009 at 7:34 PM

ALERT: ELIOT SPITZER ON MSNBC

faraway on November 3, 2009 at 7:24 PM

faraway: Did they bring cameras into the prison!ahem!:)

canopfor on November 3, 2009 at 7:33 PM

Is his wife appearing with him? no? His hooker?

ted c on November 3, 2009 at 7:34 PM

[ted c on November 3, 2009 at 7:31 PM]

I got done with it and felt like chanting “Yogi, Yogi, Yogi”

Dusty on November 3, 2009 at 7:34 PM

McDonnell has 76% in Hanover County….

fiatboomer on November 3, 2009 at 7:34 PM

Anybody wanna bet on whether or not Deeds can win his home county?

fiatboomer on November 3, 2009 at 7:35 PM

youda man dusty

ted c on November 3, 2009 at 7:36 PM

Exit polls suck. Repeat: exit polls suck. Even when they favor my guy. No one with sense talks to these people.

Missy on November 3, 2009 at 7:36 PM

CNN: Obama has no plans to watch election returns tonight

hahahahahahaha

faraway on November 3, 2009 at 7:30 PM

faraway: Hopey is probably drinking beer,swatting at flies,
while watching those re-turns!haha:)

canopfor on November 3, 2009 at 7:37 PM

Dude – Fauquier County is breaking big for McDonnell. Lots of lefty McMansion dwellers out there. Good news.

fiatboomer on November 3, 2009 at 7:38 PM

fox breaking down exit polls and there is a difference when asked about obamas policies they are against/unhappy, but obama performance more happy than unhappy

more evidence IMO of peoples reluctance to criticze the one to pollsters and media types, CANT imagine WHY?

BWAAHAAA after spending 2 years screaming at we fellow Dems we are racist!! for not supporting Obama

you can fool some of the voters some of the time
but you cant fool the unemployed

ginaswo on November 3, 2009 at 7:38 PM

Nothing from Fairfax City or county yet. A small % from Alexandria. Those areas will be where Deeds votes will come from. McDonnell is going to win. I want this to be a double digit deal. They’ll play a single digit margin off as a moral victory, with a weak candidate. I want that card off the table. Once the votes from Alexandria and Fairfax city and county come in, we’ll have a real good idea of what kind of margin we’re looking at.

stldave on November 3, 2009 at 7:38 PM

canopfor

dollars to donutes TOTUS is watching the HBO premiere of the ‘documentary’ about hisself, BY THE PEOPLE, lol

like narcissis bent over the reflecting pool

ginaswo on November 3, 2009 at 7:39 PM

CNN: Obama has no plans to watch election returns tonight

hahahahahahaha

faraway on November 3, 2009 at 7:30 PM
He’ll just watch the loops of his own election night that runs continuously at the WH….

ted c on November 3, 2009 at 7:31 PM

Surely they’ll be watching the documentary about his ascension on HBO that is premiering tonight.

It’ll be more like a mockumentary now, a year later.

tru2tx on November 3, 2009 at 7:40 PM

Kudlow has ongoing live coverage

ginaswo on November 3, 2009 at 7:40 PM

Deeds ahead in Frednecksburg, 54-44

fiatboomer on November 3, 2009 at 7:41 PM

McDonnell 79% in Augusta County…wow. Small population county, though…but it’ll help!

SouthernGent on November 3, 2009 at 7:41 PM

ginaswo on November 3, 2009 at 7:39 PM

Whoa…. same wave-length.

tru2tx on November 3, 2009 at 7:41 PM

McD and Co are up by 2 to 1 with nearly 15% reporting.

ted c on November 3, 2009 at 7:42 PM

canopfor on November 3, 2009 at 7:16 PM
We get the bears in place in the tora bora mountain caves.
It would be too perfect if we released the last 215 from Gitmo back into the wild of the Afghan Pak Border, right after we gave them all a rub down with say SPAM.

Dr Evil on November 3, 2009 at 7:23 PM

Dr Evil: Now you just come up with a new Reality Show!

CAN YOU SURVIVE THE BEARS/Season 1,

The Carnage from Gitmo!!!!!!!!!:)

canopfor on November 3, 2009 at 7:42 PM

aaaaand… Deeds up by 20% in Arlington. That’s Jim Moran’s turf. No surprise.

fiatboomer on November 3, 2009 at 7:43 PM

CNN: Obama has no plans to watch election returns tonight

Emperor Obama will see nothing, he will hear nothing, he will know nothing. He did not even get up this morning.

OberfeldwebelSchultz on November 3, 2009 at 7:43 PM

Here is a live map of the results in VA:
http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/Election_Information/Election_Results/2009/November_General_Election.html

stackedeck on November 3, 2009 at 7:43 PM

Actually a decent number from Arlington county and Alexandria coming in already, so that’s good. Nothing from Fairfax yet still.

stldave on November 3, 2009 at 7:43 PM

25 percent of Virginians and 18 percent of Jerseyans say their number one issue is ObamaCare.

Is it something in the water out east? Obamacare is a looming disaster! Is it the eastern news media or what? Are these people cut off from the rest of the country? What the he!! ?

donh525 on November 3, 2009 at 7:44 PM

I’m reading on some tweets that some news outlets have called for McDonnell. Any of the big ones yet?

gophergirl on November 3, 2009 at 7:44 PM

Dusty on November 3, 2009 at 7:30 PM

Prophecy.

ted c on November 3, 2009 at 7:31 PM

Poetry, at the least.

hillbillyjim on November 3, 2009 at 7:44 PM

Exit polls are useless.

iceman1960 on November 3, 2009 at 7:45 PM

Is his wife appearing with him? no? His hooker?

ted c on November 3, 2009 at 7:34 PM

ted c: He`s probably making and sewing comfort binkys
for his fellow bunkys,ahem!haha:)

canopfor on November 3, 2009 at 7:45 PM

NJ Polls closing in 15 mins.

Metro Shep is indicating that it is looking like R’s have taken back VA….

ted c on November 3, 2009 at 7:46 PM

it’ll be interesting to see if the final victory margin for Bob McD is greater than the last polls before today. If so, it’ll be because he swung some indies or generated better turnout maybe?

ted c on November 3, 2009 at 7:47 PM

Deeds HUGE lead in Arlington.

SouthernGent on November 3, 2009 at 7:47 PM

WHERE ARE THE D*MN RESULTS,oh its only quarter to 8,
my mistake,nevermind!!

canopfor on November 3, 2009 at 7:47 PM

Metro Shep is indicating that it is looking like R’s have taken back VA….

ted c on November 3, 2009 at 7:46 PM

I don’t think the R’s can take back anything without the C’s.

donh525 on November 3, 2009 at 7:50 PM

A majority of voters in both states said they are worried about the direction of the nation’s economy over the next year. 85 percent of Virginia voters said they are worried, as are 90 percent of voters in New Jersey. These percentages were similar on Election Day in 2008.

Key word – direction. 85 – 90% of those voters think we heading in the wrong direction? Holy crap…that’s near-unanimous rejection of Obaamanomic Socialism. (That only leaves the black voters still standing behind their guy. I wonder how many blacks think the economy is heading in the wrong direction but just won’t criticize Obama for anything?)

Jaibones on November 3, 2009 at 7:50 PM

I hope,this doesn`t come down to real close,like an
overnight drama into the next month,Broward County type
recount nightmare,

where Liberals are bringing in boxes of dead voters,
or finding other ballots,that just so happens that all
the ballots voted for Liberals!

Jus sayin!!

canopfor on November 3, 2009 at 7:52 PM

canopfor on November 3, 2009 at 7:52 PM

I think ACORN is kinda layin’ low these days for some reason or another.

hillbillyjim on November 3, 2009 at 7:55 PM

Shep just made an astute epiphany,that during elections,
everbody campaigns in the middle!!

I`m stunned! Who would do such a thing!

Especially extreme far,far,left like Obama!!|

canopfor on November 3, 2009 at 7:56 PM

CAN YOU SURVIVE THE BEARS/Season 1,

The Carnage from Gitmo!!!!!!!!!:)

canopfor on November 3, 2009 at 7:42 PM

Maybe get those endangered polar bears paroled from Churchill, Manitoba polar bear jail?

katy the mean old lady on November 3, 2009 at 8:02 PM

We are not as vicious as the left are. I say I’m sure he’s a nice guy and I think he is a great role model for the black community, but I totally disagree with all of his policies.

deidre on November 3, 2009 at 7:08 PM

Yes, there is little to be gained by being rude and uncivil.
I say I’m sure I would piss on him if he were on fire.

justltl on November 3, 2009 at 8:18 PM

Bull. If anyone said that Obama was the main factor they would be falsely labeled a racist. That is life in Obama’s race neutral America. Disagree with Obammmy and you are a racist.

Blake on November 3, 2009 at 8:20 PM

I think ACORN is kinda layin’ low these days for some reason or another.

[hillbillyjim on November 3, 2009 at 7:55 PM]

Speaking of ACORN, I posted a comment in a headline thread that probably wasn’t noticed but we had a really weird proposal on the ballot here in NY. The proposal was for the legislature to pass a law allowing prison inmates to voluntarily work for non-profit organizations.

That’s got to be the work of ACORN and their dozens of front groups.

Dusty on November 3, 2009 at 8:23 PM

canopfor

dollars to donutes TOTUS is watching the HBO premiere of the ‘documentary’ about hisself, BY THE PEOPLE, lol

like narcissis bent over the reflecting pool

ginaswo on November 3, 2009 at 7:39 PM

ginaswo: *FacePalm* what was I thinking!!hehe:)

canopfor on November 3, 2009 at 8:25 PM

Maybe get those endangered polar bears paroled from Churchill, Manitoba polar bear jail?

katy the mean old lady on November 3, 2009 at 8:02 PM

katy the mean old lady: A bloody splendid idea!hehe:)

canopfor on November 3, 2009 at 8:29 PM

The problem with asking whether Obama was a factor in someone’s vote is that there’s a disconnect between the man himself and his policies

The economy is the number one issue, and Obama has nothing to do with the state of the economy, nor does Obama’s policies have any influence on the future state of the economy.

The number two issue is health care, and Obama has nothing to do with health care, he just wants it, and that means nothing. After all, he wants what is best for the country.

The number three issue is taxes. Obama has nothing to do with taxes, especially local property taxes. Pelosi and the house democrats control federal tax policy. It’s not Obama’s problem. Obama is not really the head of the democrat party, he is just the guy who reads great speeches off the teleprompter.

Finally, voters are ignorant, and stupid. The news media tells them how to vote. If they don’t vote that way, the voters are screwed up.

/there are a few of us who can tell the difference.

Skandia Recluse on November 3, 2009 at 8:30 PM

Speaking of ACORN, I posted a comment in a headline thread that probably wasn’t noticed but we had a really weird proposal on the ballot here in NY. The proposal was for the legislature to pass a law allowing prison inmates to voluntarily work for non-profit organizations.

That’s got to be the work of ACORN and their dozens of front groups.

Dusty on November 3, 2009 at 8:23 PM

I saw that, too, Dusty, this morning when I voted. I almost left the booth without noticing the ballot proposals way over on the right side of the machine. I read that proposal and said, “Holy s***! We’ll have convicts out doing community organizing on my dime.”

Voted a resounding NO.

Fallen Sparrow on November 3, 2009 at 9:04 PM

MESSAGE TO OBAMA: “DROP THE HEALTH CARE REFORM BS AND CONCENTRATE ON THE ECONOMY!

I’LL KEEP IT SIMPLE FOR YOU: “IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!

GarandFan on November 3, 2009 at 9:28 PM

With global warming, it appears far to cold for ACORN to work the streets and the unemployed Oprah watchers to go vote.

seven on November 3, 2009 at 10:10 PM

With global warming, it appears far to cold for ACORN to work the streets and the unemployed Oprah watchers to go vote.

seven on November 3, 2009 at 10:10 PM

It’s interesting to see the media, who did their best to ignore the real effects of the economic downturn, discover that “it’s the economy stupid”

J_Crater on November 3, 2009 at 11:42 PM

Obama a factor, but not the main factor

Won`t this headline sum up the entire Obama term in office?
He was there, he was present, but he let other events and people shape his time in office.

albill on November 4, 2009 at 6:11 AM

Don’t worry, he’s a Harvard man!

bluegrass on November 4, 2009 at 7:49 PM

Comment pages: 1 2