Video: Biden econ adviser says employment won’t rebound for eight months
posted at 12:40 pm on November 1, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
Keith Hennessey captures this moment of both media skepticism and surprising revelation from CBS’ Morning Show on Friday. Harry Smith interviews Jared Bernstein, chief economic adviser to VP Joe Biden, and presses him on both the administration’s announcement that economic recovery has begun and on increasing joblessness in the near term. Bernstein, at the 2:38 mark, then makes an astonishing assessment:
Harry Smith: When does this economy start to create jobs on its own?
Dr. Bernstein: As far as the overall economy is concerned, private sector forecasters tell us that by the second half of next year, net job growth should be positive, unemployment should be coming down.
How long out will that be? Eight months. Bernstein predicts that unemployment will continue to rise through next summer, at which point we will start to enter positive job growth and the numbers will only start to decline from their peak.
This prediction has been made by the Obama administration before, however. In Christina Romer’s argument for a massive stimulus package in January of this year, this chart showed that Romer expected positive job growth to start in the third quarter of 2010 — if Congress didn’t spend hundreds of billions of dollars on stimulus:
According to the administration’s promises in January, spending all of that money would have meant limiting unemployment to 8% and positive job growth in the preceding quarter. The upper line tracks what Romer predicted would happen without the massive stimulus spending, which is that unemployment would continue to rise through 2010Q3 before finally starting to decline.
Bernstein’s projection clearly indicates that Porkulus has utterly failed. We would have had the same unemployment curve without it, only also without incurring almost a trillion more dollars of debt. It’s not too late for Congress to take a page from the Pay Czar and claw back the remaining Porkulus money.
Blowback
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Fat chance that Congress would do anything that resembled commen sense.
txmomof6 on November 1, 2009 at 12:45 PM
Porkulus unnecessary? Who knew?
FireBlogger on November 1, 2009 at 12:46 PM
commen=common, need coffee
txmomof6 on November 1, 2009 at 12:46 PM
A title he shouldn’t be so proud to hold. It’s going to be a resume killer.
sherry on November 1, 2009 at 12:50 PM
Gee, what happens second half, next year? First Tuesday November I think.
Marcus on November 1, 2009 at 12:50 PM
If this putz says 8 months, then you can count on it being more like 18 months.
Remember, the economy that they “inherited” is “worse than expected.” That’s why Porkulus didn’t “save or create 3 million jobs.”
These people have no clue.
UltimateBob on November 1, 2009 at 12:50 PM
Well “it’s a spending bill” .
the_nile on November 1, 2009 at 12:52 PM
I don’t know, TXmom, it’s almost noon. At this point, you might as well just skip the coffee and go straight to beer. ;-)
UltimateBob on November 1, 2009 at 12:52 PM
A race to the midterms. Somehow, I don’t think that’s going to work. And, there better be a helluva turnaround to not have it slop over into 2012.
a capella on November 1, 2009 at 12:53 PM
I think porkulus actually did great damage in the short term, in addition to the catastrophic long-term effects…it scared the living hell out of businesses and the entire world. It just emphasized how wreckless congress and the Obama administration really are…and how hostile they are to free markets. In addition to real long term damage it did the the country, the lingering negative psychological effects on businesses are more than enough to counter any positive effects dumping that much borrowed money in the sewer might have caused.
AUINSC on November 1, 2009 at 12:54 PM
But what about Obama’s golf game?
Firebird on November 1, 2009 at 12:54 PM
I just don’t understand why the VP needs a separate chief economic advisor from the POTUS.
But whatever. The dems can hire three thousand “chief economic advisors” and it wouldn’t help at all, as long as they buy into the long-discredited tax-and-spend philosophy of governing.
UltimateBob on November 1, 2009 at 12:56 PM
Frankly, I don’t put any stock in these guys predictions….they have been wrong on just about everything so far.
tatersalad on November 1, 2009 at 12:57 PM
It hasn’t failed at all. It’s doing exactly what they had planned. Right before next years elections there will be 2 months of positive economic news.
p0s3r on November 1, 2009 at 12:59 PM
That’s their plan , but we’ll see.
the_nile on November 1, 2009 at 1:01 PM
What sort of stimulus requires 17 months after its passage to cause a rebound in the economy?
Of course, what is being unspoken is that, due to the resilience of our market, if you give a long enough time horizon, let’s say 17 months, there will be some sort of natural rebound in the economy anyway, even without any sort of stimulus. Once this natural rebound occurs, look for Obama to take full credit for it.
DarkKnight3565 on November 1, 2009 at 1:02 PM
This is the same thing as just saying “it won’t happen anytime soon.”
What’s going to happen to create jobs in the next eight months? If there were huge amounts of capital investment going on RIGHT NOW, then you could expect employment growth 6-8 months later.
But that’s not happening. Instead, gigantic amounts of money are being sucked out of the economy. Capitalism isn’t being resuscitated; it’s being strangled.
logis on November 1, 2009 at 1:03 PM
If the health care bill passes and cap-n-trade passes there will be no private sector jobs created at all. Lying to try and paint a rosy picture 8 months down the road for cover is absurd.
fourdeucer on November 1, 2009 at 1:07 PM
Yeah, that’s what I was thinking. 8 months, huh? I’m thinking that’s going to be optimistic, but maybe this is all a coded message – for the media to altogether stop reporting how bad the economy is after 8 months, less it significantly hurt Democrats chances in the 2010 election.
[Don't worry, I'm not conspiracy theorizing. We all know that the media is going to do that anyway.]
Vyce on November 1, 2009 at 1:09 PM
It hasn’t failed at all. It’s doing exactly what they had planned. Right before next years elections there will be 2 months of positive economic news.
p0s3r on November 1, 2009 at 12:59 PM
pretty dumb plan if that is the case….if we don’t start picking up jobs by the summer, they’d be lucky if there are no riots on the streets by August. Pretty hard to turn around riots and marches on Washington in Aug, to big gains for the libs in November.
tatersalad on November 1, 2009 at 1:10 PM
Jared Bernstein sez:
Yeah, that sounds like the name of a really “independent” government body. Each and every one of the words in the title has been hand picked by Obama operatives.
UltimateBob on November 1, 2009 at 1:10 PM
Did Porkulus come with a money back guarantee? Does ObamMao come with a money back guarentee?
They can stop massive spending NOW, but they won’t.
Mojave Mark on November 1, 2009 at 1:10 PM
Why wait? He’s taking credit for it now, even while saying things haven’t recovered fully and may actually get much worse.
These predictions are worthless. This adminstration has no credibility on the economy after porkulus. And the idea that unemployment will improve in the latter half of next year is wishful thinking. With taxes guaranteed to go up by no later than 2011, several states on the verge of bankruptcy, and the two nuclear bombs known as Obamacare and crap-and-betrayed on the verge of being dropped on every business in this country, where exactly are the jobs going to come from?
Doughboy on November 1, 2009 at 1:11 PM
Once this natural rebound occurs, look for Obama to take full credit for it.
DarkKnight3565 on November 1, 2009 at 1:02 PM
I think he tried to do this the other day with the GDP growth, but I think someone made a phone call and said ‘huh, champ, you might want to tone down your chest pounding cuz we gonna have 10% unemployment on our next report next week!’……
I sensed a slight crabwalk this morning on the ‘recovery’…
tatersalad on November 1, 2009 at 1:12 PM
I hope all the unemployed liberals are having fun paying their bills with lies and figuring out new recipes to feed their families with lies.
fourdeucer on November 1, 2009 at 1:13 PM
I’m not exactly sure when, but I think the Bush tax cuts expire in 2010…I’m not sure if that’s what you were referring to…that’s going to be huge.
AUINSC on November 1, 2009 at 1:14 PM
The bottom line is that none of these left wing nuts have the slightest idea what is really happening to this poor sick country and they certainly don’t have a clue about how to correct its problems./
rplat on November 1, 2009 at 1:15 PM
Hmm who woulda thunk? /
Repub types more knowledgeable
http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2009/10/pew_political_iq_poll_republic.asp
CWforFreedom on November 1, 2009 at 1:18 PM
With cap and tax plus hell care coming, no way I hire anybody. In fact, I’m planning for early semi-retirement and consulting. Big government democrats have jut eight more high tech people on the unemployment rolls. Keep making it harder with fewer rewards and see what comes at you.
jukin on November 1, 2009 at 1:19 PM
But it won’t be because no business is going to hire in front of the end of the Bush tax cuts. Unemployment will be north of 10% when the election rolls around and the Dems are going to get creamed.
It’s the economy, stupid!
Bill C on November 1, 2009 at 1:21 PM
I think our so-called president has a major credibility problem. It comes from too many lies.
tarpon on November 1, 2009 at 1:22 PM
Porkulus hasn’t done its job yet–giving massive amounts of money to Democratic special interests just before the 2010 election.
What, did you think it was an economic stimulus bill or something?
Revenant on November 1, 2009 at 1:23 PM
Hahahahahaha! Silly boy. Porkulus was PAYBACK. Didn’t have a damned thing to do with getting the economy back on it’s feet. It’s almost like you believe that the Democrats in Congress actually CARE about the working class.
GarandFan on November 1, 2009 at 1:23 PM
My thought exactly. Considering our current situation I think it is safe to say that getting anything done in this administration is like herding cats.
Cindy Munford on November 1, 2009 at 1:25 PM
This is good news for the Party of No!! Enjoy!
simplesimon on November 1, 2009 at 1:26 PM
My theory is that most of the stimulus money was withheld with an eye to 2010 and 2012. Look for Obama to pour it out like vats of gravy come next autumn and declare “recovery.”
rrpjr on November 1, 2009 at 1:26 PM
Awwwwww…somebody is getting cranky now that the reality is setting in.
AUINSC on November 1, 2009 at 1:27 PM
So Obama will have someone to throw under the bus for 2012.
Caper29 on November 1, 2009 at 1:28 PM
Ahhh, here it is…Bush tax cuts expire Jan 1, 2011. Here’s what happens:
Oh boy…if we aren’t in a double dip by that time, this will guarantee it.
AUINSC on November 1, 2009 at 1:30 PM
A title almost as impressive as “Chief rubber nose advisor to Bozo the Clown”.
Aviator on November 1, 2009 at 1:35 PM
Oh please . . . enough of that idiotic trash. I’ll say one thing; when you named yourself “simplesimon” you really hit the nail on the head.
rplat on November 1, 2009 at 1:36 PM
Also in that phone call was someone mugging him with reality. The growth in GDP was almost completely attributed to government spending and as Romer said that spending is over. Cash for Clunkers played a big part in the 3rd Quarter. Someone has to be telling him Q4 is most likely going to be terrible again. I think it everyone knows unemployment will still be horrible. Retail sales for Holiday`s will be a constant drag each week etc… Very silly to blow his horn this early.
bluemarlin on November 1, 2009 at 1:39 PM
I predict that jobs start flowing like Niagra, right about the time it’s pertinent to win elections.
Am I psychic, or just one of many that knows this is nothing more, than a political ploy, laying in wait?
capejasmine on November 1, 2009 at 1:44 PM
Bernstein was on Kudlow’s show quite a bit before he began working for Biden. Even though I disagree with many of his economic analysis, he is an honest guy so he should be commended for this, not criticized. The people that need to be criticized are the media folks, like Allahpundit, that bought the crapola Obama was selling when he was running. Obama is a total economic illiterate and this was clear from the beginning and yet people like Allahpundit were giving him credit as being a moderate reasonable person. How is that Hope and Change working for you now Allahpundit??
georgealbert on November 1, 2009 at 1:45 PM
I think we know the GOP has offered many plans that have been totally ignored. I also think you really do understand that there is some bipartisan agreement going onit just pisses you off that the Dems are agreeing with the Repubs.
To further the theme of NO though, maybe had someone actually told you NO at some point in your life you woul d have grown up by now and would be able to look at hings with logic and common sense. Instead you sit at home and look at all your 10th place trophies is my guess.
bluemarlin on November 1, 2009 at 1:46 PM
Huh?!? I don’t remember Allah ever ‘giving him credit’ for anything except being a demagogue and far lefty trying to look like a moderate…the Allah-bashing that goes on here defies belief sometimes.
AUINSC on November 1, 2009 at 1:48 PM
Well first you might need to ask Mr. Morrissey since he wrote article for this thread.
Cindy Munford on November 1, 2009 at 1:59 PM
The ungoverned and unstimulated economy would very likely begin generating jobs much sooner than any Keynesian is capable of understanding. The problem is going to be that the so-called “stimulus” package will be buried under the additional load of Cap-and-Trade, Card Check forced unionization and the expiration of the Bush Tax Cuts. In fact, the inevitable flight of capital from an economy growing more hostile to free enterprise every day toward markets of greater freedom and higher returns is well under way.
Even the fastest pony in the stable can’t win the race if you load it down with 1200 lbs of dead weight!!!!
Good Luck
Lew on November 1, 2009 at 1:59 PM
+ 1 trillion
Cindy Munford on November 1, 2009 at 1:59 PM
Taxes on dividends will increase beginning on January 1, 2009;
*
Taxes on capital gains will increase, also beginning on January 1, 2009
AUINSC on November 1, 2009 at 1:30 PM
–Tax rates on qualified dividends change in 2011, not 2009. I think the same is true on capital gains.
Jimbo3 on November 1, 2009 at 2:03 PM
Yeah, maybe true…I got it from here:
http://www.heritage.org/research/taxes/wm956.cfm
AUINSC on November 1, 2009 at 2:05 PM
Why? Because that’s how long it will take to make every American a public employee?
Star20 on November 1, 2009 at 2:22 PM
Appropriately enough, it sounds like somebody farts when Bernstein first mentions the jobs being “created or saved.”
Star20 on November 1, 2009 at 2:40 PM
The White house is going to have to start explaining WHY their policies are putting the US into a SECOND recession.
They will also have to explain what their new policies for ending this SECOND recession are going to be.
Of course, a depression is historically defined as multiple consecutive recessions. Seems like a third one when those Bush tax cuts are ended will be the straw that brings that discussion to the front. But, with 500 billion in tax increases in this health care grab on the table, and Pelosi looking for a new national sales tax (VAT), and of course cap-n-trade (aka cap-n-tax – aka tax-n-ration), there could be many causes.
Freddy on November 1, 2009 at 2:51 PM
Does he work the Magic Eight Ball and
LunchpailSheriffIn Country Joe asks the questions or vice versa?ya2daup on November 1, 2009 at 3:10 PM
title he shouldn’t be so proud to hold. It’s going to be a resume killer.
sherry on November 1, 2009 at 12:50 PM
If this putz says 8 months, then you can count on it being more like 18 months.
UltimateBob on November 1, 2009 at 12:50 PM
The dems can hire three thousand “chief economic advisors” and it wouldn’t help at all,
UltimateBob on November 1, 2009 at 12:56 PM
AUINSC on November 1, 2009 at 12:54 PM
burt on November 1, 2009 at 3:41 PM
You suckers should have gone into the fruit fly breeding business. Drosphila Melanogaster is where it’s at in this economy. We are rolling in the cash right now, I might even hire some more people. /s
Rambotito on November 1, 2009 at 3:45 PM
Jimbo3 on November 1, 2009 at 2:03 PM
Yeah, maybe true…I got it from here:
http://www.heritage.org/research/taxes/wm956.cfm
AUINSC on November 1, 2009 at 2:05 PM
I’m pretty sure they passed a bill in 2006 to extend the tax cuts.
Jimbo3 on November 1, 2009 at 4:58 PM
From Wikipedia, AUINSC:
The Tax Increase Prevention and Reconciliation Act of 2005 (or TIPRA, Pub.L. 109-222, 120 Stat. 345) was enacted on May 17, 2006.
This bill prevents several tax provisions from sunseting in the near future. The two most notable pieces of the bill are the extension of the reduced tax rates on capital gains and dividends and extension of the alternative minimum tax (AMT) tax reduction.
Jimbo3 on November 1, 2009 at 4:59 PM
Trying to figure out the significance of eight months? Must have something to do with next year’s election cycle…like they can say, “Vote Dumocrat! Prosperity’s just around the corner! We said as much last November!”
And then they’ll probably go on to win.
Dr. ZhivBlago on November 1, 2009 at 5:22 PM
Under Bush it never would have happened at all.
So don’t you right-wing conspirators DARE devalue the Majesty.
~goes to yak on my own sarcasm~
Liam on November 1, 2009 at 5:48 PM
Is it me, or does Harry Smith seem very un HopeyChangey this morning?
kurtzz3 on November 1, 2009 at 6:44 PM
Many of those jobs “created” were temporary in nature. Some such as the teachers and policement are the responsibility of school districts, local communities, and states.
This man is trying to paint a rosy picture with some weak tea.
onlineanalyst on November 1, 2009 at 7:24 PM
By then the economy will be REALLY cratered. Unemployment is already affecting sales. We passed the tipping point two months ago.
But you know what? It won’t improve then either.
dogsoldier on November 1, 2009 at 8:00 PM
Harry Smith sounds convinced with every m-hmm, m-hmm.
meMC on November 1, 2009 at 9:03 PM
Yes, and wait until the crybabies who claimed that “only the rich benefitted from the tax cuts” find out that they were also part of the “rich” who benefitted from those lower taxes. Expect fireworks.
onlineanalyst on November 1, 2009 at 9:40 PM
Don’t worry though. Anita Dunn is doing a heckuva job controlling the message. Uh, yeah, right.
onlineanalyst on November 1, 2009 at 9:43 PM
That chart was a joke long ago. See here where actual UE starting diverging from fantasy the minute it was printed.
Unicorn Chart
rhodeymark on November 2, 2009 at 6:35 AM