PPP poll: Hoffman up big in two-man race

posted at 6:53 pm on November 1, 2009 by Allahpundit

Good news, but with lots of caveats.

Here are some interesting facts from our unweighted numbers so far:

-In a three way contest Doug Hoffman leads Bill Owens by 19 points. In a two way contest Hoffman leads Owens by 15 points. So the Dede Scozzafava withdrawal and endorsement will probably tighten the race some but not nearly enough.

-58% of Republicans think that Scozzafava’s a liberal and that was obviously before her endorsement today.

-The Rush Limbaugh effect- Hoffman has a 79 point lead with Rush listeners while Owens has a 6 point lead with people who don’t listen to the show.

On its Twitter account, PPP flatly states that it expects Hoffman to win easily. Now the caveats: (1) Every other pollster thinks the race is close; (2) the White House evidently thinks so too given their outreach to Scozzafava (which, allegedly, included a phone call from Rahm Emanuel); and (3) PPP has a sample problem given that they started their poll before Scozzafava dropped out yesterday and kept it rolling on through today’s bombshell endorsement. That’s a lot of new information for respondents to assimilate on the fly and it guarantees that only part of the total sample will be reacting to Scozzafava’s switch. In fact, so dynamic and convoluted is this race — for example, just as I’m writing this, I’m hearing that Scozzafava’s campaign manager has endorsed Hoffman — that Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight has given up on trying to make a prediction, claiming that he wouldn’t be surprised if either Hoffman or Owens wins by double digits. (How’s that for a margin of error?) And he adds a fourth caveat to PPP’s blowout forecast: If Scozzafava thought that her supporters would defect to Hoffman after she withdrew, she wouldn’t have withdrawn, would she? She’d have stuck around for two more days until the election to help out her pal the Democrat by keeping those votes from DH.

But look. As gratifying as it would be to see Hoffman win, the guy didn’t become a conservative grassroots cause celebre because people are dying to see Doug Hoffman in Congress. He’s a cause celebre because conservatives wanted to send a message to the GOP about the future of the party, and that message has now been sentand received, to the tune of $900,000 down the toilet — regardless of what happens on Tuesday. The party can still get away with putting up socially liberal Republicans in select purple districts next year, but fiscally liberal nominees are going to earn them either a primary challenge, a third-party challenge, or a disaffected base spending election day at home. And a Hoffman defeat will do nothing to change that. As for sending a message to Democrats and The One, that’s already been achieved too thanks to the looming landslide in Virginia for McDonnell and the fact that, even if Corzine wins a squeaker, it’ll only be because Zeus himself had to carry his ass across the finish line in what’s normally a dependably blue state. All of which is to say that Tuesday will be a good day no matter which way the polls in NY-23 and New Jersey end up tilting.

Exit question: Is Newt planning to comment on Scozzafava’s betrayal, perchance? He’s tweeted four times since she made her announcement and not a peep out of him about it yet.

Update: Ah, my mistake. Newt did comment on it, as an update to a blog post on his site:

Scozzafava did the right thing in dropping out. I am, however, deeply dissapointed that she has chosen to back Owens over Hoffman.

I am endorsing Doug Hoffman and believe everyone who wants to create jobs with lower taxes and to control spending and deficits should vote for Doug Hoffman Tuesday.

Follow the comments over there. Right now.


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Great analysis Allahpundit. You da Bomb.

elduende on November 1, 2009 at 6:56 PM

Obama: This is the Sozzafava I’ve always known.

Newt: Who?

BobMbx on November 1, 2009 at 6:56 PM

Sssssssscoooooooozzzzzzzzzaaaaaaafffffffaaaaaaavvvvvvvaaaaaaaaaaa…!

Seven Percent Solution on November 1, 2009 at 6:58 PM

w00T!

pseudonominus on November 1, 2009 at 6:58 PM

I’m taking this race as a good omen, not for the GOP, but for the people.

Sorry, GOP. Your time has come and gone. We the people are taking back the party.

madmonkphotog on November 1, 2009 at 6:59 PM

An optimistic AP?

Why do I sense a lurking Eeyore beneath the surface?

Enoxo on November 1, 2009 at 6:59 PM

Hence the articles this weekend calling NY-23 extremist knuckle-dragging Neanderthal tea baggers.

John the Libertarian on November 1, 2009 at 6:59 PM

Whom does the bell toll for?

It tolls for thee, Newt….

pseudonominus on November 1, 2009 at 6:59 PM

not a peep out of him about it yet.

I’m sure he’s trying to forget this entire fiasco as fast as he can.

JoeinTX on November 1, 2009 at 6:59 PM

Go here to see Newt get his butt handed to him on his own site. If ever a pol saw his potential being shredded, it would be Newt at this very moment.

http://newt.org/EditNewt/FeaturedBloggersDB/tabid/193/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/4629/I-Am-Endorsing-Doug-Hoffman.aspx#Comments

Bishop on November 1, 2009 at 7:00 PM

Dede Scozzafava is what we HALO players like to refer to as a “teamkilling cockbite”.

fusionaddict on November 1, 2009 at 7:00 PM

Well written AP, I think you analysis is very well done. I’m going to go with FiveThirtyEight on the prediction side of this race.

clement on November 1, 2009 at 7:00 PM

Scozzyfozzy, you are a bitter hellbat. I pray that we get the last laugh. Har!

Philly on November 1, 2009 at 7:02 PM

PPP is smoking some powerful stuff if they honestly think Hoffman was up 19 points in a 3 man race. Tuesday will be interesting if nothing else.

Jeff M (Formerly Jeff_McAwesome) on November 1, 2009 at 7:02 PM

If Scozzafava thought that her supporters would defect to Hoffman after she withdrew, she wouldn’t have withdrawn, would she?

It depends , maybe Big union and Rahm offer came after she withdrew.

the_nile on November 1, 2009 at 7:03 PM

The party can still get away with putting up socially liberal Republicans in select purple districts next year, but fiscally liberal nominees are going to earn them either a primary challenge, a third-party challenge, or a disaffected base spending election day at home.

Yep. And the other part not mentioned here: Dede was a symptom of Newt and others trying to move the entire party in the direction of socially liberal/somewhat fiscal conservative candidates.

NY 23 is a big STOP sign, right in the middle of that highway.

cs89 on November 1, 2009 at 7:03 PM

Exit question: Is Newt planning to comment on Scozzafava’s betrayal, perchance? He’s tweeted four times since she made her announcement and not a peep out of him about it yet.

I’m sure Newt doesn’t really know what to say, or comment with, over this. However, it’s pretty damned clear that Scozzafava had no business running for this seat, and really no business in politics. Her lack of principles, and lack of maturity should question everyone in New York, as to this womans competency.

capejasmine on November 1, 2009 at 7:03 PM

Exit question: Is Newt planning to comment on Scozzafava’s betrayal, perchance? He’s tweeted four times since she made her announcement and not a peep out of him about it yet.

He did hours ago, but I guess anything longer than a tweet is too involved for some people:

Scozzafava did the right thing in dropping out. I am, however, deeply dissapointed that she has chosen to back Owens over Hoffman.

I am endorsing Doug Hoffman and believe everyone who wants to create jobs with lower taxes and to control spending and deficits should vote for Doug Hoffman Tuesday.

http://newt.org/tabid/193/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/4629/I-Am-Endorsing-Doug-Hoffman.aspx

Terry_Dyne on November 1, 2009 at 7:04 PM

Bwahahahaha. RINOs suck.

Bill C on November 1, 2009 at 7:04 PM

Scozzyfozzy, you are a bitter hellbat. I pray that we get the last laugh. Har!

Philly on November 1, 2009 at 7:02 PM

Her not being a elected moby republican is a victory in itself.

the_nile on November 1, 2009 at 7:04 PM

I hope someone is paying attention the the west coast and that bay area race I heard a bit about – the three races people are focusing on in the east would be nice but to win that seat on the left coast? Nuclear explosion. The son of a Reagan aide versus a union thug/entrenched California politician who has never been anything but, from what I heard a little on Rush last Monday.

Marcus on November 1, 2009 at 7:04 PM

Go here to see Newt get his butt handed to him on his own site. If ever a pol saw his potential being shredded, it would be Newt at this very moment.

Bishop on November 1, 2009 at 7:00 PM

WOW.

Newt is done in national politics imho.

Norwegian on November 1, 2009 at 7:05 PM

Sssssssscoooooooozzzzzzzzzaaaaaaafffffffaaaaaaavvvvvvvaaaaaaaaaaa…!

Seven Percent Solution on November 1, 2009 at 6:58 PM

Ya know, I think I’ll miss this.

unwashed minion on November 1, 2009 at 7:05 PM

my friends son works for a Democratic Texas congressman as an intern and 10 days ago he and a bunch of others were “air lifted” out of their offices in DC and sent up to the NY-23 election to work for Owens. I suspect the Owens campaign needed bodies to do work that they couldn’t get volunteers in NY to do.

Ricki on November 1, 2009 at 7:05 PM

And a Hoffman defeat will do nothing to change that. As for sending a message to Democrats and The One, that’s already been achieved too thanks to the looming landslide in Virginia for McDonnell and the fact that, even if Corzine wins a squeaker, it’ll only be because Zeus himself had to carry his ass across the finish line in what’s normally a dependably blue state. All of which is to say that Tuesday will be a good day no matter which way the polls in NY-23 and New Jersey end up tilting.

Now that’s funny, I know funny and that’s funny.

ted c on November 1, 2009 at 7:06 PM

Oh and Newt had better enjoy retirement, because if there is a more visceral example of the problem, with the establishment GOP and their Obamunist elites, I’ve not seen it.

elduende on November 1, 2009 at 7:06 PM

He did hours ago, but I guess anything longer than a tweet is too involved for some people:

Scozzafava did the right thing in dropping out. I am, however, deeply dissapointed that she has chosen to back Owens over Hoffman.

I am endorsing Doug Hoffman and believe everyone who wants to create jobs with lower taxes and to control spending and deficits should vote for Doug Hoffman Tuesday.

http://newt.org/tabid/193/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/4629/I-Am-Endorsing-Doug-Hoffman.aspx

Terry_Dyne on November 1, 2009 at 7:04 PM

Looks like he updated an old message cowardly.

the_nile on November 1, 2009 at 7:07 PM

Scozzafava: sounds like something that itches…

ted c on November 1, 2009 at 7:07 PM

Go here to see Newt get his butt handed to him on his own site. If ever a pol saw his potential being shredded, it would be Newt at this very moment.

http://newt.org/EditNewt/FeaturedBloggersDB/tabid/193/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/4629/I-Am-Endorsing-Doug-Hoffman.aspx#Comments

Bishop on November 1, 2009 at 7:00 PM

Oh, that is quite, quite a trainwreck over there. Painfull even.

Stick a fork in it, Newt….when even your partizans are trashing you on your own website….you are done.

pseudonominus on November 1, 2009 at 7:08 PM

I disagree that the GOP will necessarily learn the lesson that solid conservatives are preferable to moderates (Scuzzy’s really a liberal but they say she’s moderate) if Hoffman loses badly. They will say, “See, we told you so. Scozzafava was winning, but Hoffman came along and lost it for us.” In order to really send the message home that unapologetic conservatism wins, we need to win. The bigger, the better.

As for the caveats about the PPP poll, even if Hoffman isn’t winning by 19 or 15, it still seems likely at this point, given these margins, that he will at least win by single digits.

David Mickelson on November 1, 2009 at 7:09 PM

Scozzafava did the right thing in dropping out. I am, however, deeply dissapointed that she has chosen to back Owens over Hoffman.

I am endorsing Doug Hoffman and believe everyone who wants to create jobs with lower taxes and to control spending and deficits should vote for Doug Hoffman Tuesday.

Newtster; shoulda seen this coming. You coulda led, now you must follow, as well as get the hell outta the way. The Palin Train is coming through.

ted c on November 1, 2009 at 7:09 PM

like cockroaches, scurrying for darkness when the lights are turned on……fun to watch, actually.

tatersalad on November 1, 2009 at 7:10 PM

and that message has now been sent — and received, to the tune of $900,000 down the toilet

This is chump change for the price of 1)setting party priorities, and 2) flushing a turd down the toilet, and 3) maybe getting even the beltway insiders to understand the gravity of their pandering to a “moderate”/liberal. Gingrich should be the one to reimburse the party with his “lack of vetting” skills.

Rovin on November 1, 2009 at 7:10 PM

not a peep out of him about it yet.

He’s been a little busy. It has been rumored that Newt has been doing some scrubbing. Er, if you know what I mean — *cough*

Americannodash on November 1, 2009 at 7:10 PM

The real losers are the chairpersons in the NY-GOP.

Johnson on November 1, 2009 at 7:11 PM

This is the “shot heard around the world”.

The GOP will not be the same henchforth.

Rino’s you can duck, but you can’t hide.

technopeasant on November 1, 2009 at 7:11 PM

Looks like he updated an old message cowardly.

the_nile

Yep. He’s been editing his more effusive comments about Dede on older posts for the last few days, with only a new edit date to acknowledge the changes.

Also, search on his site for obvious keywords like Hoffman or Dede come up empty. Blocking certain words, it looks like.

Don’t know why he’s bothering. You can’t edit what everyone else has quoted.

Terry_Dyne on November 1, 2009 at 7:12 PM

they are making up lies about hoffman wanting to cut social security and medicare trying to get the senior vote.

So what else is new?

JoeinTX on November 1, 2009 at 7:13 PM

AP’s analysis is so good it is almost like Ed wrote it.

notagool on November 1, 2009 at 7:13 PM

Ummm. Someone in NY needs to look for a lonely blogger roaming the streets. He goes by the name Allah Pundit, and he’s missing. Whoever wrote this post is not AP, and we know it; you‘re rosy outlook gave you away. If you’re out there, AP, don’t worry we’ll find you.

Weight of Glory on November 1, 2009 at 7:14 PM

Sssssssscoooooooozzzzzzzzzaaaaaaafffffffaaaaaaavvvvvvvaaaaaaaaaaa…!

Seven Percent Solution on November 1, 2009 at 6:58 PM

You can say that again.

farright on November 1, 2009 at 7:14 PM

The party can still get away with putting up socially liberal Republicans in select purple districts next year, but fiscally liberal nominees are going to earn them either a primary challenge, a third-party challenge, or a disaffected base spending election day at home.

That’s NY-23 in a nutshell. The drive-bys are either too dense to get this or are deliberately playing up the social issues as a distraction.

But the GOP bigwigs better understand why their asses were handed to them in 2006 and 2008. It wasn’t because of Iraq. It wasn’t because the country was overcome with Obamamania(although some did fall prey to this). It’s because of massive deficit spending by Bush and the GOP Congress. It’s because of the Medicare prescription drugs bill. It’s because of the amnesty bill. It’s because of TARP. It’s because Republicans started acting like Democrats.

If the GOP is to survive and thrive, it must be the party of fiscal conservatism. Now more than ever we need people who will carry that torch. Whether or not Hoffman wins, I hope their leadership got the message. We can’t afford anymore Scuzzy debacles if we’re gonna retake the House and make inroads in the Senate.

Doughboy on November 1, 2009 at 7:14 PM

Now this is a poll I can believe in since I like the outcome. :)

Hope its true.

I got Dede to concede by chanting a special Matra for hours on end while in a meditative state. It worked like a charm.

Now I am chanting a special Mantra so Rinos will take a dirt nap and Hoffman wins.

Geochelone on November 1, 2009 at 7:15 PM

my friends son works for a Democratic Texas congressman as an intern and 10 days ago he and a bunch of others were “air lifted” out of their offices in DC and sent up to the NY-23 election to work for Owens. I suspect the Owens campaign needed bodies to do work that they couldn’t get volunteers in NY to do.

Ricki on November 1, 2009 at 7:05 PM

I’m betting a Texas accent in New York resonates with voters about as well as a New York accent in Texas.

unclesmrgol on November 1, 2009 at 7:16 PM

I think the Scozzy endorsement might pissoff some of the R’s who were wondering which way to go when she dropped off. Those types of R’s will NEVER support a big spending Dem, even if they were prepared to vote for a Dem in the closet R. Sounds confusing, but I think there is blowback from her endorsement. Everything I have heard about this women makes me wonder why she was even still a Republican.

karenhasfreedom on November 1, 2009 at 7:17 PM

Exit question: Is Newt planning to comment on Scozzafava’s betrayal, perchance? He’s tweeted four times since she made her announcement and not a peep out of him about it yet.

If at first you don’t succeed destroy all evidence that you ever tried.
- Murphy

Quote me as saying I was misquoted.
- Groucho

I think the best thing for Newt to do now is to say that he had been kidnapped and had been forced at gun point to say all the things he said. It probably won’t work but I think it’s the best chance he’s got.

MB4 on November 1, 2009 at 7:17 PM

The MCCAIN experiment failed. Now this . Will the GOP get it? Will Newt get it?

CWforFreedom on November 1, 2009 at 7:17 PM

All of which is to say that Tuesday will be a good day no matter which way the polls in NY-23 and New Jersey end up tilting.

True, but that’s not how the media will play this. We know that if Hoffman loses, the meme will be that the GOP must moderate even more with NY-23 being the absolute test.

Sleeper race: CA-10. Keep ya ears peeled.

SouthernGent on November 1, 2009 at 7:18 PM

The party can still get away with putting up socially liberal Republicans in select purple districts next year, but fiscally liberal nominees are going to earn them either a primary challenge, a third-party challenge, or a disaffected base spending election day at home.

I disagree…this is the message ‘socially liberal republicans’ want to pretend was sent but, as anyone who contributed to the tea party or Hoffman can tell you, the real lesson was far more basic…Conservatives OK, liberals (of whatever stripe) not.

It was RINO hunting season and we bagged one.

JIMV on November 1, 2009 at 7:18 PM

Scozzofava=R1N1 the Rino-virus.

portlandon on November 1, 2009 at 7:18 PM

Check out this gem from one of Newt’s former minions at his website:

It appears that she [DeDe] has a bigger scozza than you.

And that’s one of the more diplomatic messages. Newt–more couch time with Pelosi can’t help you, dummie. You’d better get your butt up to AK, pronto. You need to get back to basics.

james23 on November 1, 2009 at 7:19 PM

Ummm. Someone in NY needs to look for a lonely blogger roaming the streets. He goes by the name Allah Pundit, and he’s missing. Whoever wrote this post is not AP, and we know it; you‘re rosy outlook gave you away. If you’re out there, AP, don’t worry we’ll find you.

Weight of Glory on November 1, 2009 at 7:14 PM

No, it’s AP. Don’t you know that he suffers from a bad case of the caveats?

unclesmrgol on November 1, 2009 at 7:19 PM

Also:

October 31, 2009

RNC CHAIRMAN MICHAEL STEELE STATEMENT ON NEW YORK 23 SPECIAL ELECTION

WASHINGTON – RNC Chairman Michael Steele released the following statement on Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava suspending her campaign in NY-23.

“The Republican National Committee respects Dede’s decision to suspend her campaign. This selfless act of releasing her supporters provides voters with the opportunity to unite around a candidate who shares Republican principles and will serve the interests of his constituents in Congress by standing in opposition to the liberal policies of President Obama and Speaker Pelosi.

http://www.gop.com/index.php/comms/comments/rnc_chairman_michael_steele_statement_on_new_york_23_special_election

So, following her noble example, we should vote for the Democrat Mike?

Terry_Dyne on November 1, 2009 at 7:19 PM

Well the left, which includes the fringe media will now be pushing Newt as the Repub that would bring civility to the party. Alinsky speak for he can’t win.

lilium on November 1, 2009 at 7:19 PM

Now that’s funny, I know funny and that’s funny.

ted c on November 1, 2009 at 7:06 PM

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOD MOOOOOOOORRRRRNING GOP!!!!

Fighton03 on November 1, 2009 at 7:20 PM

this is the dcc email that was just sent out. they are shitting bricks over this race. they are making up lies about hoffman wanting to cut social security and medicare trying to get the senior vote.

Brass Knuckles on November 1, 2009 at 7:11 PM

Obamas health care plan are build on cuts of medicare..

the_nile on November 1, 2009 at 7:21 PM

Scozzofava=R1N1 the Rino-virus.

portlandon on November 1, 2009 at 7:18 PM

Now THAT is worthy of Tea Party sign!

Fighton03 on November 1, 2009 at 7:22 PM

I disagree…this is the message ’socially liberal republicans’ want to pretend was sent but, as anyone who contributed to the tea party or Hoffman can tell you, the real lesson was far more basic…Conservatives OK, liberals (of whatever stripe) not.

It was RINO hunting season and we bagged one.

JIMV on November 1, 2009 at 7:18 PM

I hope that’s not the message. The GOP must be open to socially moderate or even liberal candidates in certain states and districts. Let’s be realistic here. There are some places in this country where a pro-lifer CANNOT win elected office.

Doughboy on November 1, 2009 at 7:22 PM

if Corzine wins a squeaker, it’ll only be because Zeus himself had to carry his ass across the finish line in what’s normally a dependably blue state.

Fact 1:
If Corzine wins it is because conservatives in NJ are waking up to the fact that Christie is a RINO just like Christie Todd Witless.

Fact 2:
If the Dems keep NJ when it should have been a cakewalk then the blame should be laid at the feet of Sean Hannity who was the deciding factor in the RINO Christie defeating an electable Conservative who would have destroyed Corzine.

bill30097 on November 1, 2009 at 7:22 PM

It was RINO hunting season and we bagged one

Definitely.

I held my nose in ’08 and voted for Mac……..never again. And we may need every one of the next three years before the next PTUS race to get the GOP right if we can at all.

I would hope this little episode would shake some cages at the RNC but it looks like, with wins as we are expecting, that Steele will see it as vindication of his efforts and take lots of credit.

JoeinTX on November 1, 2009 at 7:23 PM

Scuzzyfuzzy: Here’s how a real conservative acts. Take note.

http://townhall.com/blog/g/c23874c7-200f-47f8-b30b-dfc05af2e456

Let’s go say hi to Peloser.

Philly on November 1, 2009 at 7:23 PM

Hopefully Scozza-f*ckup’s edorsement will be the kiss of death for Owens. It would so serve her right if Hoffman wins big time!

JAM on November 1, 2009 at 7:23 PM

Quote me as saying I was misquoted.
- Groucho

MB4

Dede, You’re a disgrace to our family name of Scozzafava, if such a thing is possible.

Terry_Dyne on November 1, 2009 at 7:24 PM

Hope and Change! Is out.
=======================
Conservative Logo,
——————

Trust and Revolution! Is in.
============================

canopfor on November 1, 2009 at 7:24 PM

this is what I was trying to get out. They are scared because they know they will lose. my bust about the earlier post. this is straight from the dccc emails going out

Late yesterday news broke that the moderate Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, candidate in the hard-fought special election in New York’s 23rd Congressional district, had been driven out and the Republican party was throwing their weight behind the Palin/Limbaugh/Glen Beck endorsed radical tea party candidate instead.

Today, the moderate Republican threw her support behind our proud Democratic candidate Bill Owens.

It has never been clearer that the Republican Party has been hijacked by extreme right wing ideologues with a radical agenda that would effectively dismantle Social Security and Medicare, and are out of step with a vast majority of Americans.

Eight extreme right wing groups spent more than $1 million on this campaign including the Minute Men, Club for Growth and the Family Research Council.

This means your work and your continued support and dedication have never been more critical as we face our one-year-out reporting deadline and this election on Tuesday.

We are up against a well-funded extremist GOP who will stop at nothing to win and whose agenda could quite literally take us backwards to the days of Bush-Cheney.

But, you and I can’t let that happen. I will continue to keep you posted on news of this race continues and thank you again for standing with us. We will need you now more than ever.

Thanks,

Jon Vogel
DCCC Executive Directo

Brass Knuckles on November 1, 2009 at 7:25 PM

What a clusterfark the NY GOP created up there. Yesterday I thought that a Hoffman win was necessary in order for the GOP to get the right message, but since her endorsement of Owens I think Allah is right on target. I still hope Hoffman wins, but it won’t be necessary for the GOP to realize they screwed up here, and that the grassroots hold incredible sway.

Scozzfava needs to switch her party affiliation ASAP. What a snake.

changer1701 on November 1, 2009 at 7:25 PM

Hoffman: In
Newt: Out
VA: goes Republican
Corzine: A Loser either way
Soetoro: Already on the ropes

Ricohoc on November 1, 2009 at 7:27 PM

Don’t you know that he suffers from a bad case of the caveats?

unclesmrgol on November 1, 2009 at 7:19 PM

and after all those times I told him to use protection.

sheesh.

blatantblue on November 1, 2009 at 7:27 PM

(2) the White House evidently thinks so too given their outreach to Scozzafava (which, allegedly, included a phone call from Rahm Emanuel);

Totally irrelevant. The WH can reach out to Scozzafava at no cost to themselves. If Owens wins they can claim the credit, if Owens loses they lose nothing by their outreach.

PackerBronco on November 1, 2009 at 7:27 PM

Scozzafava: sounds like something that itches…

ted c on November 1, 2009 at 7:07 PM

ted c: Spin it backawkwards!!

Avafa zzocs,sounds like a prescription!!:)

canopfor on November 1, 2009 at 7:28 PM

Sorry to be such a broken record, but it IS time to take our Party BACK! Also, folks, keep an eye on California district 10. Dave Harmer, who is on the ballot for Congress(http://www.harmerforcongress.com/about.htm) is running 10% behind the Democrat in the SurveyUSA poll of 10/28.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d0a09738-d7a8-4f8f-9ed9-a5275c7eab96
He may likely lose, but ya never can tell!!

rtsidedragon on November 1, 2009 at 7:29 PM

heh!

ted c on November 1, 2009 at 7:30 PM

Great analysis Allahpundit. You da Bomb.

elduende on November 1, 2009 at 6:56 PM

I don’t think winking at social liberalism in the GOP is “da bomb”.

jgapinoy on November 1, 2009 at 7:30 PM

and after all those times I told him to use protection.

sheesh.

blatantblue on November 1, 2009 at 7:27 PM

blatantblue: O/T,but I hope your feeling a bit better,I
heard through the grapevine,your dog passed!:)

My condolences,btw,I have a Lab,and 3 cats!:)

canopfor on November 1, 2009 at 7:31 PM

We are up against a well-funded extremist GOP who will stop at nothing to win and whose agenda could quite literally take us backwards to the days of Bush-Cheney.

Brass Knuckles on November 1, 2009 at 7:25 PM

All out Goebbels.

the_nile on November 1, 2009 at 7:31 PM

Update: Ah, my mistake. Newt did comment on it, as an update to a blog post on his site…Follow the comments over there. Right now.

“By Anonymous @ Sunday, November 01, 2009 6:40 PM: fu

That one pretty much sums up the comments. It’s getting pretty rough over there.

forest on November 1, 2009 at 7:32 PM

What none of the polls are taking into account are the number of votes already cast. I don’t know about NY but in California, we have “permanent vote by mail”. Most vote by mail voters here have already voted and it is a statistically significant portion of the electorate.

What the polling numbers are matter less as you approach election day because an increasing percentate of votes are cast each day. By the time election day comes around, 20% of the votes in the district might have already been cast.

crosspatch on November 1, 2009 at 7:32 PM

jgapinoy on November 1, 2009 at 7:30 PM

you ain’t wrong there, jg

rtsidedragon on November 1, 2009 at 7:32 PM

You have to take back the Party before you can take back the country….

moc23 on November 1, 2009 at 7:32 PM

Scozzafava should complete this circle & just switch parties now. Why wait? She got all that GOP money & Rahm is giving her the $$$ GREEN light to come on over. Newt would be beside himself with grief. Newt could then come out with a 20/20 hindsight speech on all his misgivings for her from the very beginning — like we’d forget all about his previous “BIG TENT” spew — you know — kind like Obama does when he throws someone under his bus after it is revealed that they can hurt his future blatherings rather then help.

Americannodash on November 1, 2009 at 7:33 PM

crosspatch on November 1, 2009 at 7:32 PM

We in Oregon have that also. Still crossing the fingers, tho.

rtsidedragon on November 1, 2009 at 7:33 PM

so it begins……

( watch the media go into Downplay Mode on Tuesday evening )

Janos Hunyadi on November 1, 2009 at 7:35 PM

Good summary Allah.

Zorro on November 1, 2009 at 7:37 PM

Sorry, but I’m not jumping on the bandwagon. Newt’s still got good ideas, he made a poor decision on Dede, but I challenge any one to find a Republican leader who is flawless.

p0s3r on November 1, 2009 at 7:38 PM

jgapinoy on November 1, 2009 at 7:30 PM

Hi jg, Allah may get squishy sometimes and NYC may have turned him into a perpetual eeyore but I find his analysis of this situation and many others sound. No harm in saying so.

elduende on November 1, 2009 at 7:38 PM

The MCCAIN experiment failed. Now this . Will the GOP get it? Will Newt get it?

CWforFreedom on November 1, 2009 at 7:17 PM

It wasn’t a total failure. We have Palin because of it which is proving to be a good thing for conservatives. We have to stand together and completely clean up this party.

truetexan on November 1, 2009 at 7:38 PM

The dems only want to win NY-23 so bad because they want to state that Palin is a nut job and that talk radio and “tea baggers” have no influence.

deidre on November 1, 2009 at 7:39 PM

Janos Hunyadi on November 1, 2009 at 7:35 PM

Thats okay. Let’s hope the Demo’s big boys believe that all this means zip. Nothing would be finer than to sneak up on ‘em in 2010.

rtsidedragon on November 1, 2009 at 7:39 PM

Exit question: Is Newt planning to comment on Scozzafava’s betrayal, perchance? He’s tweeted four times since she made her announcement and not a peep out of him about it yet
=========================================================

Maybe its like,when McCain used Sarah Palin,and you know the rest of the story,

and,Newt’s apprentice has umm bit’n the dust,so maybe there
both just having a communication problem,ahem!!

canopfor on November 1, 2009 at 7:40 PM

I’ve been leary of Newt ever since that “We Can Solve It” global warming ad campaign with him on the couch with Nancy!

centre on November 1, 2009 at 7:41 PM

centre on November 1, 2009 at 7:41 PM

no kidding. What was that about?

truetexan on November 1, 2009 at 7:43 PM

Go here to see Newt get his butt handed to him on his own site. If ever a pol saw his potential being shredded, it would be Newt at this very moment.

Bishop on November 1, 2009 at 7:00 PM

Bishop:Pretty nasty,a lot of pissed off Conservatives!!:)

canopfor on November 1, 2009 at 7:43 PM

The party can still get away with putting up socially liberal Republicans in select purple districts next year

There’s nothing in this story that could possibly lead you to that conclusion.

Ronnie on November 1, 2009 at 7:43 PM

It wasn’t a total failure. We have Palin because of it…

truetexan on November 1, 2009 at 7:38 PM

Don’t give any of them credit for Palin. She was always in the wings and might actually have been better off emerging without the McCain albatross around her neck.

And she would have emerged eventually. Don’t doubt that for a moment.

Kensington on November 1, 2009 at 7:44 PM

Speaking of NJ…2 new polls show a statistical dead heat. From Monmouth Univ.

“This election will be defined by turnout like few others before it. Many Democrats are sitting on
the sidelines and not considered to be likely voters at this point.
They may be unenthusiastic about their
governor, but can they be prodded to the polls for other reasons? If not, Christie may eke out the win,”
said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
A key dynamic in this race has been the vacillations of independent voters. The GOP nominee
Christie now garners a 51% majority with this important voting bloc compared to just 29% for Democrat
Corzine. The major shift is a drop in Daggett’s support from 22% of independent voters two weeks ago
to just 10% in the current poll.
“Independent voters are simply unhappy with the job Governor Corzine has done over the past
four years. After a brief flirtation with Daggett’s candidacy, many seem to have returned to Christie as
their best chance for change,” said Murray.

SouthernGent on November 1, 2009 at 7:45 PM

Go Hoffman. I want to hear James Carville whine like a rented sea otter.

Geochelone on November 1, 2009 at 7:45 PM

And he adds a fourth caveat to PPP’s blowout forecast: If Scozzafava thought that her supporters would defect to Hoffman after she withdrew, she wouldn’t have withdrawn, would she? She’d have stuck around for two more days until the election to help out her pal the Democrat by keeping those votes from DH.
———————–
The problem with this is in the first sentance “If Scozzafava thought”. Dede has shown she is not very bright, has terrible judgement and doesn’t know her a$$ from her elbow.

Niteowl45 on November 1, 2009 at 7:45 PM

At this point do any one us care what Gingrich says about any candidate? I don’t. He’s proving himself to be the typical politician. At this point he would do CONSERVATIVE PRINCIPLES well if he quietly retired.

I’m pretty mad at him for his supporting “moderate” republicans lately.

shick on November 1, 2009 at 7:45 PM

The dems only want to win NY-23 so bad because they want to state that Palin is a nut job and that talk radio and “tea baggers” have no influence.

deidre on November 1, 2009 at 7:39 PM

deidre: You are correct! But,they have made a grave
political tactical error,me thinks!:)

canopfor on November 1, 2009 at 7:46 PM

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