Gulp: Hoffman’s net favorable rating among Scozzafava supporters at … -42

posted at 4:15 pm on October 31, 2009 by Allahpundit

A not so minor detail from the crosstabs to this morning’s earthquake poll, overlooked by many but not by Nate Silver. The good news? Scozzafava voters dislike the Democrat, giving him a favorable rating of just 19/50.

The bad news? That’s actually higher than they rate Hoffman.

hoff

Ed argued this morning that Scozzafava’s withdrawal is likely to hurt Owens “tremendously” because it frees up a ton of Republican votes. Could be, but how conservative are those votes? Turns out Obama’s net favorable rating among Scozzafava loyalists is … +33, with the split almost a perfect mirror image of The One’s favorables among Hoffman’s supporters:

ob

Silver breaks it down:

The reality is that a lot of Scozzafava’s ex-supporters, many of whom don’t like either Hoffman or Owens, simply won’t vote. And some of them will still wind up casting their ballots for Scozzafava undaunted, as she’ll still appear on the ballot and may have made herself something of a sympathetic figure. Certainly, it would seem to help Hoffman if Scozzafava decided to endorse him — but only 15 percent of Scozzafava’s voters had a favorable view of Hoffman, so they aren’t going to come over easily, if at all…

If I had to guess, I’d think that of Scozzafava’s support, one-quarter of people don’t vote, one-quarter vote for Scozzafava anyway, 30 percent defect to Hoffman and 20 percent defect to Owens. Extrapolating from the morning’s Siena poll, that would produce a result of Hoffman 43, Owens 42, Scozzafava 5, with 10 percent of the voters still up for grabs.

To no one’s surprise, her union endorsements are already peeling off to Owens, and Dave Weigel notes that the eleventh-hour nature of her withdrawal means that plenty of absentee ballots that have already been mailed will end up on the books for Team Dede. Exit question: Aside from a thumbs up from Scozzafava herself, what hope does Hoffman have to make a dent in those favorable numbers in the next 72 hours? Every big GOP booster helps, sure, but more than anything he needs endorsements from big-name centrist Republicans to send the message that party trumps all in a two-man race with a Democrat (a highly ironic argument for DH to be making, needless to day). Help us, Olympia Snowe, you’re our only hope!

Update: At long, long last, Huckabee finally makes his move. Does he still count as a centrist?


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Any poll taken today will have ‘issues’ by tomorrow night.

It has appeared from the start that Republican party line voters were for Scozzafava. Republican party line voters will not vote for the Democrat. They will either vote for Hoffman, Scozzafava, or sit out the short offcycle ballot. If they jump to the Democrat, then they might as well join the Democratic party and be done with it.

Freddy on October 31, 2009 at 6:31 PM

If her supporters are peeling off to Owens, and Owens wins, then this district isn’t as Republican as we’ve been told. RINO, yes. Republican, no.

ncborn on October 31, 2009 at 4:20 PM

..so, if the “crosstabs” are to be believed, then how does one account for the fact that it was her fade in the Siena poll that caused her to quit?

Try this on for size, AP. Your cohort, EM, posted this earlier:


Update: I had neglected to review the poll in much detail, but I suspect that Scozzafava’s withdrawal (or suspension, more accurately, since her name will stay on the ballot) hurts Bob Owens tremendously. According to the poll, Hoffman had attracted 50% of the Republican vote, while Owens had 2/3rds of the Democrats. Hoffman leads Owens among independents, 40%-35%, and the remaining 15% supporting Scozzafava will almost certainly break more towards Hoffman than Owens. Owens will likely get more of Scozzafava’s Democratic supporters, but she only had 11%, while 14% have already gone to Hoffman. Hoffman and Owens had a near-even split of the opposition in Scozzafava’s regional stronghold of Jefferson/Lewis/St. Lawrence counties, but I’d be surprised if Hoffman didn’t pick up more in those areas of disaffected Scozzafava voters, too.

VoyskaPVO on October 31, 2009 at 6:34 PM

I’d rather lose with Hoffman than win with Scozzafava.

Hawkins1701 on October 31, 2009 at 4:19 PM

agree with ya there…

cmsinaz on October 31, 2009 at 6:34 PM

I’d rather lose with Hoffman than win with Scozzafava.

Hawkins1701 on October 31, 2009 at 4:19 PM

Amen. I see this not so much as a battle for a congressional seat (it is New York after all) as it is a battle for the soul of the party. What good does it do to elect a Republican if the Republican is cut from the same cloth as the two crones from Maine? I want real alternatives when I go to the voting booth, not Democrat and Democrat Lite.

As far as I’m concerned, regardless of whether Hoffman wins or loses on Tuesday, Sarah Palin and the TEA Party wing of the Republican Party have scored a victory. And let this experience serve as a lesson to GOP party bosses everywhere: If you run a RINO instead of a true conservative, expect to suffer the consequences.

NoLeftTurn on October 31, 2009 at 6:34 PM

-
Yeah… there’s a seat over there near the back.
-

RalphyBoy on October 31, 2009 at 6:27 PM

RalphyBoy: That reminds me of the time when,Newt was told
to use the rear-entrance of Air-Force 1,during
the Clinton Administration!!

canopfor on October 31, 2009 at 6:35 PM

BTW- “To no one’s surprise, her union endorsements are already peeling off to Owens” should be enough of a clue to prove that Scozzafava was not the right candidate for the party.

highhopes on October 31, 2009 at 4:50 PM

but did the RNC get the clue?

cmsinaz on October 31, 2009 at 6:38 PM

Hey,

I’m here in Watertown, NY.

Lots of big endorsements have come in including the mayors of Plattsburgh and Watertown.

Doug still has the momentum and there is no indictation yet that his rising line on the graph has plateau’ed.

The weather sucks here. Bad weather may help Doug due to his supporters being more motivated.

Also, some news outlets are portraying Dede as a ‘moderate’. She’s a statist and a leftist. Make no doubt about it and point it out when you can.

I’m about to attend a Susan B. Anthony get-together at the Days Inn in Watertown.

Although there will be no letting up, it appears Doug is passing up Owens. I heard a report that some Owens supporters going door-to-door were lieing to Scozza supporters telling them that Dede was now supporting Owens.

Joe Biden will be in town Monday. Maybe I’ll plaster Hoffman signs on my car, remove the plates and leave it in front of his stage. Just kidding. I will be there though with a bigass Hoffman sign though.

Say a prayer.

And remeber, WE are the good guys.

:)

Sapwolf on October 31, 2009 at 6:38 PM

“If party leaders had half a brain they’d jump out in front of this mob and call it a parade.”

jaime on October 31, 2009 at 6:43 PM

It’s a good day.

ray on October 31, 2009 at 6:43 PM

I wasn’t sure Dede’s departure would help when i heard it. You think the ACORN supporters that backed her are going to vote for Hoffman? This has the potential of consolidating the Liberal vote, not the conservative.

pgrossjr on October 31, 2009 at 6:46 PM

Polling update from PPP:

Hoffman has polled consistently at 45-46% all day, Owens up a little since Scozzafava dropout but still doesn’t look close

22 minutes ago from web

artist on October 31, 2009 at 6:48 PM

A not so minor detail from the crosstabs to this morning’s earthquake poll, overlooked by many but not by Nate Silver.

Ahem… or by me… I asked the question soon after she announced she was out… would her squishy following want to “punish” the right by moving against Hoffman?

Hoffman has to win now… if he loses, a GOP seat moves to the D column and Sarah and company will be saddled with the loss by the press.

No being on the gorund in NY, I have no idea which way they’ll fall.

mankai on October 31, 2009 at 6:48 PM

Sarah just thanked Dede for withdrawing from the race on her FB page:

I want to personally thank Republican Dede Scozzafava for acting so selflessly today in the NY District 23 race. Now it’s time to cross the finish line with Doug Hoffman so that he can get to work for District 23 and the rest of America.

With Congress poised to overhaul one-sixth of our economy with so-called health care “reform” (which is really a government takeover of health care) and with plans to enact a cap-and-tax bill just as our economy struggles to recover, Doug Hoffman will be a voice for fiscal responsibility and common sense in Washington.

We need candidates like Doug now more than ever. In these final days of the campaign, it’s vital that Doug continue to receive the enthusiastic support of those who want to bring common sense to Washington. Let’s help make it happen! You can help Doug by visiting his official website today and offering your support: https://www.doughoffmanforcongress.com/donate3.html

- Sarah Palin

yogi41 on October 31, 2009 at 6:57 PM

As far as I’m concerned, regardless of whether Hoffman wins or loses on Tuesday, Sarah Palin and the TEA Party wing of the Republican Party have scored a victory. And let this experience serve as a lesson to GOP party bosses everywhere: If you run a RINO instead of a true conservative, expect to suffer the consequences.

NoLeftTurn on October 31, 2009 at 6:34 PM

I dunno… the press will spin it as a loss for conservatives who couldn’t hold a GOP seat… and the party bosses will come out with a “see, I told you so!”… conservatives will be tagged as “unelectable.”

I’m at a loss on this one… I love seeing a RINO ousted and the party give way to a popular movement… but not knowing the district I have no way to know how this will turn out.

I know that RINOs really hate conservatives and perhaps Dede (having no principles like all RINOs) pulled out because she her polling showed it would help defeat the conservatives who rallied against her.

mankai on October 31, 2009 at 6:57 PM

If I had to guess, I’d think that of Scozzafava’s support, one-quarter of people don’t vote, one-quarter vote for Scozzafava anyway, 30 percent defect to Hoffman and 20 percent defect to Owens. Extrapolating from the morning’s Siena poll, that would produce a result of Hoffman 43, Owens 42, Scozzafava 5, with 10 percent of the voters still up for grabs.

All due respect, this is garbage or wishful thinking.

It assumes, worst of all, that voters in a special election are lemmings of some kind, that they somehow just fall into place.

It’s also based on a poll taken just before a major candidate drops out, thus the commenter’s view is entirely hypothetical.

The likely voters in this district are a lot more up on what’s happening than voters might be in a normal race. They’ve been swamped with ads and media attention.

Bottom line, unless Hoffman’s caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy in the next few days, he wins, with 45-50 %. Take it to Vegas.

TXUS on October 31, 2009 at 7:00 PM

Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava’s decision not to endorse either of her opponents after suspending her bid for ex-Rep. John McHugh’s seat was a tactical move made in concert with Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman’s campaign, a source close to Scozzafava confirmed.

There was some concern that supporters of Scozzafava’s more moderate brand of Republicanism would be so turned off if she publicly announced an endorsement of the man who has been hammering her as a Pelosi-esque liberal that it would them into the arms of Democratic nominee Bill Owens.

LINK

KittyLowrey on October 31, 2009 at 7:02 PM

I wasn’t sure Dede’s departure would help when i heard it. You think the ACORN supporters that backed her are going to vote for Hoffman? This has the potential of consolidating the Liberal vote, not the conservative.

pgrossjr on October 31, 2009 at 6:46 PM

Then this was never a Republican district to begin with. Furthermore, I am perfectly happy with the radical left vote consolidating in the Democrat party. What – the new GOP strategy should be to elect leftists?

PS – there are conservatives in the Dem party for various reasons. Maybe when they get tired of the wingnuts there they will switch over or vote Republican.

Specter switching from GOP -> Dem = good thing long term.

alexwest on October 31, 2009 at 7:02 PM

Sarah just thanked Dede for withdrawing from the race on her FB page:

yogi41 on October 31, 2009 at 6:57 PM

Palin has it right, as usual. One of my first reactions was to give kudos to DS for dropping out. No matter how anathema her positions she did the right thing today and caused a great deal of optimistic excitement.

KittyLowrey on October 31, 2009 at 7:04 PM

She’s a moderate R like Specter is.

Oh wait, he’s a Democrat.

Exactly.

The media can eat me.

artist on October 31, 2009 at 7:05 PM

I dunno… the press will spin it as a loss for conservatives who couldn’t hold a GOP seat… and the party bosses will come out with a “see, I told you so!”… conservatives will be tagged as “unelectable.”

I’m at a loss on this one… I love seeing a RINO ousted and the party give way to a popular movement… but not knowing the district I have no way to know how this will turn out.

I know that RINOs really hate conservatives and perhaps Dede (having no principles like all RINOs) pulled out because she her polling showed it would help defeat the conservatives who rallied against her.

Any person getting the Dr.Mengele, er I mean Margaret Sanger award will be pulling for the other baby killer to win.

mankai on October 31, 2009 at 6:57 PM

Jeff from WI on October 31, 2009 at 7:07 PM

mankai on October 31, 2009 at 6:57 PM

But the press would spin it that way anyway, even if she stayed in it. There was no way she was going to win; this is a two-man race, and has been since last week when Gov. Palin made her endorsement. I don’t think it can be discounted just how much influence her endorsement had; it generated some serious momentum. Let the MSM say what they want. I do think the party leaders have learned a hard lesson here. The rank and file expects them to remain true to their principles. If that means losing the race, then the district was never very conservative in the first place.

NoLeftTurn on October 31, 2009 at 7:11 PM

NoLeftTurn on October 31, 2009 at 7:11 PM

Palin did the right thing… I’m wondering what DS’s motiives are… as Jeff from WI points out, the religion of abortion trumps all with lefties… perhaps Dede saw the polling data, knew she was going to lose and concluded that pulling out would help the Dem (and in turn, hand a loss to Palin and the right).

I think RINOs would rather see a Dem win than a conservative.

mankai on October 31, 2009 at 7:18 PM

Q6. How likely would you say you are to vote for [CANDIDATE NAME]?

Not very certain; I very well may change my mind
Owens – 13%
Scozzafava – 10%
Hoffman – 6%

Looks like Owens voters are still not sure about him and can be won over.

WoosterOh on October 31, 2009 at 7:22 PM

Q6. How likely would you say you are to vote for [CANDIDATE NAME]?

Not certain at all; there’s a good chance I will change my mind

Owens – 3%
Scozzafava – 0%
Hoffman – 1%

So it is 16% to 7% likely to change their votes.

WoosterOh on October 31, 2009 at 7:24 PM

Let me understand this — the liberals who liked Scozzafava don’t like the conservative Hoffman?

That surely is a puzzler.

meep on October 31, 2009 at 7:31 PM

The reality is that a lot of Scozzafava’s ex-supporters, many of whom don’t like either Hoffman or Owens, simply won’t vote.

He forgot the ACORN factor.

katy on October 31, 2009 at 4:19 PM

Yeah, really.

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 31, 2009 at 7:37 PM

Oh no! If Hoffman loses, then the Democrats will have 25…4? votes in the House! Instead of 253! OMG! Until 2010, that is!

How will Republicans be able to recover from this disaster (if they actually lose, and frankly I suspect they’ll win).

Again – keep perspective, people. I know everyone’s bored because it’s an off-cycle election, but come on – try to use your thinking caps.

Proud Rino on October 31, 2009 at 7:37 PM

He forgot the ACORN factor.

katy on October 31, 2009 at 4:19 PM

That’s right, ACORN is constantly cheating in the elections, which is why the election results were so consistent with the polling before the elections! ACORN fixed all of that too. Also why did ACORN only decide to start fixing elections in 2006? You know it really would have been good for them if they’d gotten Kerry to win in 2004. I don’t get it. Why’d they let Bush win in the first place.

Or are they all in on the conspiracy too?

Proud Rino on October 31, 2009 at 7:39 PM

Why’d they let Bush win in the first place.

Or are they all in on the conspiracy too?

Proud Rino on October 31, 2009 at 7:39 PM

Just a crazy thought…maybe they wanted a reverse of the Reagan election? Have a right-wing candidate win, foul up, and be hated on so much that a hard-left candidate would be a shoo-in the next time around?

Dark-Star on October 31, 2009 at 7:46 PM

Just a crazy thought…maybe they wanted a reverse of the Reagan election? Have a right-wing candidate win, foul up, and be hated on so much that a hard-left candidate would be a shoo-in the next time around?

Dark-Star on October 31, 2009 at 7:46 PM

Right, because you know how the Left loved Bush and were very willing to have another 4 years of him. That was why they didn’t campaign very hard against him in 2004.

Proud Rino on October 31, 2009 at 7:48 PM

Right, because you know how the Left loved Bush and were very willing to have another 4 years of him. That was why they didn’t campaign very hard against him in 2004.

Proud Rino on October 31, 2009 at 7:48 PM

IMHO, it was his final 4 years that sealed him as an object of hatred by the left to such a ridiculous extent.

(FYI, I don’t really subscribe to this idea, I’m just throwing out theories.)

Dark-Star on October 31, 2009 at 7:51 PM

(FYI, I don’t really subscribe to this idea, I’m just throwing out theories.)

Dark-Star on October 31, 2009 at 7:51 PM

Right – liberals pulled this same crap in 2004. Ever since 2000, it’s no longer enough to say you lost. It has to be, “The other side cheated.” Well let’s assume both sides try to get away with as much as possible, so unless the vote totals show something markedly different than exit polls and scientific public opinion polls close to the election, stop complaining about how they cheated (since they didn’t) and instead focus on how your candidate didn’t run a good campaign.

I swear, I have no idea what happened to the concept of personal responsibility in this country – everything is someone else’s fault these days. Just pathetic.

Proud Rino on October 31, 2009 at 7:57 PM

I swear, I have no idea what happened to the concept of personal responsibility in this country – everything is someone else’s fault these days. Just pathetic.

Proud Rino on October 31, 2009 at 7:57 PM

Well, there hasn’t been much the common citizen could do to stop the current economic crisis besides not make it worse for themselves personally…we’ve consistently refused to break the two-party-blindness and now it’s almost too late entirely.

It’s getting bad enough here that some places are sticking big signs on the door saying “we are NOT taking applications!”. Those that don’t are getting 100+ people begging to sweep floors or be keyboard monkeys. Micromanaging and sadistic and by-the-book drone managers are having a field day; the slightest offense and you’re threatened with sleeping in the street that night.

I especially pity the local crop of Sudanese refugees. At least law and order haven’t degenerated to the chaos point…yet.

Dark-Star on October 31, 2009 at 8:03 PM

You know what?

Screw Gingrich and F*** Huck!

I am sick of these pie-faced hangers-on twisting in the breeze without enough balls for ballast!

Piss off, guys! This Tea Partier is NOT having either of you!

heldmyw on October 31, 2009 at 8:32 PM

(a highly ironic argument for DH to be making, needless to day say).

FIFY!

Midas on October 31, 2009 at 8:48 PM

The Daily Kos morons truly astound me. They simple don’t understand that conservatives think of themselves as conservatives first, Republicans second. They don’t worship at the feet of RNC insiders like Kosites do to the DNC.

Speedwagon82 on October 31, 2009 at 9:18 PM

I especially pity the local crop of Sudanese refugees. At least law and order haven’t degenerated to the chaos point…yet.

Dark-Star on October 31, 2009 at 8:03 PM

Yeah, those people actually have someone else to blame for their current lot in life. “Democrats/Republicans who don’t like that the other party sometimes win elections” do not.

Proud Rino on October 31, 2009 at 9:56 PM

Newsflash! If party unity really mattered to the imbeciles in the swamp they never would have endorsed DoDo.

jdkchem on October 31, 2009 at 11:14 PM

Gulp: Hoffman’s APs net favorable rating among Scozzafava Palin supporters at … -42

Obligatory.

Fuquay Steve on October 31, 2009 at 11:20 PM

It seems to me that Dede would lose in a two way with the Dem? If her “supporters” are so left they will swing to him anyway then how “republican” are they really, and how off were the polls?

We’ll see. Powerlineblog shows one that favors Hoffman. Let’s see how loyal to the Republican “team” the moderates are. They ask us to take one for the team, but they can’t?

Sounds lame.

archer52 on October 31, 2009 at 11:53 PM

“Democrats/Republicans who don’t like that the other party sometimes win elections” do not.

Proud Rino on October 31, 2009 at 9:56 PM

No indeed. But there are those of us who see beyond the 1 & 1/2 party system…and are condemned as fools, often, in the most vulgar terms, for daring to even voice that truth. The representative republic our founders fought and died for has been reduced to little more than a glorified coin-flipping contest.

Dark-Star on November 1, 2009 at 12:17 AM

Gulp: Hoffman’s Allahpundit’s net favorable rating among Scozzafava supporters conservatives at … -42

bill30097 on November 1, 2009 at 1:04 AM

My first reaction was that it’s too late.

At this point those who were so sold on Scozzafava that they were voting for her might really be mad at conservatives.

If they had a week or two they might be able to get over it and vote against the Dem. But if you are a hardcore supporter it is very hard to switch loyalties that quickly!

petunia on November 1, 2009 at 2:56 AM

Huckabee finally makes his move. Does he still count as a centrist?

When was he ever a centrist? Oh that’s right. The Fringe Media called him a centrist & we know that they’re never wrong, right???

Simply put, Huckabee is a big-spending, pro-life socialist.

LFRGary on November 1, 2009 at 4:48 AM

This should make it undeniably clear that Scuzz voters are libtard demoncraps.

jarhead0311 on November 1, 2009 at 7:36 AM

Hoffman should win. Scozzafava loyalists should have comprised mostly Republicans; after all she was nominated by a Republican committee. Sure many of them are moderates but are they really going to vote for Obama (Owens). I don’t think so. Some will sit out, grant it, but the majority I believe will vote who their party now endorses which is Hoffman. PPP polling also confirms my theory.

technopeasant on November 1, 2009 at 8:18 AM

Dede’s supporters will have to move to the right no matter which of the two candidates they vote for now.

Spider79 on November 1, 2009 at 9:02 AM

Scozza. RINO. Fave. Unfave. Huck. YUK.

I say Sarah Palin for RNC chairwoman!
.

locomotivebreath1901 on November 1, 2009 at 9:59 AM

If they stay home, that’s OK. That still favors Hoffman.

AnninCA on November 1, 2009 at 10:15 AM

Help us, Olympia Snowe, you’re our only hope!

Wait — I thought Hoffman got the coveted Newt Gingrich endorsement?

Jaibones on November 1, 2009 at 10:51 AM

Wednesday we’re all going to be experts.

mixplix on November 1, 2009 at 11:22 AM

I’d rather lose with Hoffman than win with Scozzafava.

Amen dude. I don’t think Hoffman will lose. But if so, let it be because the district is more blue. If Scozzamozza supporters vote with the dark side, then at the very least we ran with our principles, sorted out the bad apples we don’t want anyway, and initiated the conservative reckoning with a warning to the GOP elite that RINO season is open.

BirdEye on November 1, 2009 at 12:57 PM

I don’t believe for a second that the Sca… woman was ever supposed to be a “real” candidate. I believe some RINOS are the ones that voted to put her on the ballot. I believe it was the whole idea to have a DEM win and the RINOS did their part to help make it happen. (Just like with McCain). They just didn’t count on Hoffman.

Oink on November 1, 2009 at 2:05 PM

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