Daily Kos poll: Owens 33, Hoffman 32, Scozzafava 21

posted at 4:18 pm on October 29, 2009 by Allahpundit

Don’t be put off by the dKos label. Research 2000, their pollster, is a reputable outfit, so these numbers are probably in the ballpark of where things actually stand. Remember too that the campaigns have been whispering for the past week that internal polls show a two-man race now with Scozzafava fading. Consider this confirmation.

R2000 did miss an opportunity, though, by failing to poll Scozzafava voters on who their second choice is. That would have finally given us a sense of how things are likely to break if her supporters decide she’s a lost cause next week and force themselves to choose between Owens and Hoffman. Instead, they polled Hoffman’s supporters on that question, which was stupid given that he’s vaulted past her and thus is no longer the one playing spoiler. What’s fascinating about this election is that not only has the nominee of one of the major parties been relegated to the traditional third-party role of bleeding votes from a more popular candidate, but because Scozzafava’s essentially running in the center, between Owens and Hoffman, there’s no telling who she’s bleeding more votes from. Are supporters of the liberal Republican more inclined to break for a Republican or for a liberal? The best we can do at the moment to gauge that is to compare the number of Republicans voting for her to the number of Democrats. Behold:

dk

34/13, which suggests (but doesn’t quite prove) that she really is pulling more from Hoffman than from Owens. No wonder InTrade currently favors the Democrat to win 50/42, with Scozzafava just a five percent shot to pull the upset. Exit question via Stuart Rothenberg: Isn’t it true that the Democrats might not be unhappy to see Hoffman win this given the encouragement it would provide to third-party conservative challengers next year? And, conversely, that the GOP might not be sad to see Owens win, knowing what a stern cautionary tale this would be for right-wing independents mulling midterm runs of their own? Maybe that’s why the RNC is propping Scozzafava up, to keep bleeding Hoffman in hopes that Owens will eke it out. This way, even if they lose the battle to the Democrats in NY-23, they’re more likely to win the war next year.


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Scozzafava seems to be missing 4 or 5 of her chins in her ‘official’ website pic compared to the DKos pic posted here at HA.

OmahaConservative on October 29, 2009 at 4:59 PM

I’ll be sure to remember this line when you trash DKos polls in future.

Grow Fins on October 29, 2009 at 4:25 PM

Do you understand the difference between an unscientific online straw poll and a survey conducted by a reputable research outfit?

I do.

TheUnrepentantGeek on October 29, 2009 at 4:30 PM

You do realize that it’s hard for him to understand because it’s not in big letters in print. I’m sure his remedial reading teacher is very frustrated with him….

lovingmyUSA on October 29, 2009 at 5:00 PM

Conservatives really need to work on that 18-29 group. Close that gap. It’s always a killer.

lorien1973 on October 29, 2009 at 4:22 PM

They are like one day old pups. They do not have their eyes open yet.

Johan Klaus on October 29, 2009 at 5:00 PM

Scozzafava seems to be missing 4 or 5 of her chins in her ‘official’ website pic compared to the DKos pic posted here at HA.

OmahaConservative on October 29, 2009 at 4:59 PM

Oh… I thought that was the “old” Huckabee

MeatHeadinCA on October 29, 2009 at 5:01 PM

Yeah. It stuns me that an age group who is growing with open source everything, customizable everything votes for a party that wants to control their choices in life.

lorien1973 on October 29, 2009 at 4:28 PM

Agreed. It’s both imponderable riddle and cosmic joke that so many young people voted for Obama. No one has ever done more to try to shut down their possibilities, dreams and American futures.

rrpjr on October 29, 2009 at 5:02 PM

And, conversely, that the GOP might not be sad to see Owens win, knowing what a stern cautionary tale this would be for right-wing independents mulling midterm runs of their own? Maybe that’s why the RNC is propping Scozzafava up, to keep bleeding Hoffman in hopes that Owens will eke it out. This way, even if they lose the battle to the Democrats in NY-23, they’re more likely to win the war next year.

How about this lesson – Conservative base can bleed republicans to extinction if RNC does not choose conservative enough candidates. OR Republicans can not win elections without conservative candidates.

For me personally, this is more of a fight between squishes(democrat lite) and conservatives.

PS: Even the democrat is accusing Republican of raising taxes in this case. So a democrat thinks republican is too far to the left. Imagine that!!!!!

antisocial on October 29, 2009 at 5:03 PM

Conservatives really need to work on that 18-29 group. Close that gap. It’s always a killer.

lorien1973 on October 29, 2009 at 4:22 PM

It always bugs the hell out of me when the left says that people “vote against their interests” when people don’t vote for more subsidies, but anyway…

18-29 year olds are voting against their interests by voting for Democrats. If we can make them understand that the debt will have to be paid off at some point, they *should* run away arms flailing from the Dems. It’s not like it is that difficult of a concept to understand.

Joe Caps on October 29, 2009 at 5:03 PM

These numbers at least show how flat out wrong those commentators are who claim that if the Republican party goes right/conservative, it loses the independent vote.

mbs on October 29, 2009 at 5:03 PM

Scozzafava seems to be missing 4 or 5 of her chins in her ‘official’ website pic compared to the DKos pic posted here at HA.

OmahaConservative on October 29, 2009 at 4:59 PM

Shockingly there is another picture out there of her and she looks even more normal. I have no idea what they did to get that pic, but Glenn showed it and it was posted here before the pic from her little stunt came out.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 29, 2009 at 5:05 PM

When Scuzzy looses, someone should give her a clunker just for the memories of her beloved views.

MeatHeadinCA on October 29, 2009 at 5:06 PM

It’s time to remind those Republicans (the 34%) planning to vote for Scozzafava that Susan Collins, Olympia Snow and John McCain also have an ‘R’ in front of their name, and at one time so did Arlen Specter.

RMR on October 29, 2009 at 5:07 PM

volsense on October 29, 2009 at 4:41 PM

+++1000

lovingmyUSA on October 29, 2009 at 5:08 PM

Maybe that’s why the RNC is propping Scozzafava up, to keep bleeding Hoffman in hopes that Owens will eke it out. This way, even if they lose the battle to the Democrats in NY-23, they’re more likely to win the war next year.

AGREED. REPUBLICAN PARTY WINS. RINOS AND DEMOCRATS CAN SHARE CONGRESS NEXT YEAR.

LOSERS? THE PEOPLE OF AMERICA.

TheAlamos on October 29, 2009 at 5:08 PM

Nah, Just send her a field dressed moose, compliments of the ‘Cuda. From the looks of her, she enjoys her chili and stew.

OmahaConservative on October 29, 2009 at 5:08 PM

MeatHeadinCA on October 29, 2009 at 5:06 PM

I meant to quote this post.

OmahaConservative on October 29, 2009 at 5:08 PM

OmahaConservative on October 29, 2009 at 5:10 PM

This looks good to me. More conservatives on Scozz’s side tells me that they will smart up and go Hoffman. Let’s be real, RINOs are not about principles, they do what they do to win. I predict lots of R defections to Hoffman and his victory.

jukin on October 29, 2009 at 5:13 PM

These numbers at least show how flat out wrong those commentators are who claim that if the Republican party goes right/conservative, it loses the independent vote.

mbs on October 29, 2009 at 5:03 PM

Exactly. I’m been more independent. My R is just a label.

Independent means that I don’t trust just R. I want C. It’s Vitamin C that fights deseases and even cancer in the body. Plus, I also hated Bush2. He could have done so much more in the last 8 years but he failed miserably.

In the same token, it’s Conservativism that made America as a great nation. Not Liberalism that caused the decline of Europe and modern-day America.

TheAlamos on October 29, 2009 at 5:13 PM

Yes and Yes. This race reflects little to nothing on Obama regardless who wins. This reflects on the GOP and the mood of its voters.

WashJeff on October 29, 2009 at 4:47 PM

Then why is Obama sending his campaign manager to help Owens…

lovingmyUSA on October 29, 2009 at 5:14 PM

Then why is Obama sending his campaign manager to help Owens…

lovingmyUSA on October 29, 2009 at 5:14 PM

Wait. Why would teh 0ne send his campaign manager away when he is still in perpetual campaign mode?

OmahaConservative on October 29, 2009 at 5:20 PM

“Ballpark” is a meaningless term. What is the margin of error? I don’t see it mentioned anywhere in this post.
According to this poll, Hoffman and Scozzie are within a point of each other, so it really doesn’t tell us much.

UltimateBob on October 29, 2009 at 4:49 PM

Agreed, but from A-Pun’s link, the MOE is 4%.

It also says it was taken among “likely voters” and that it was apportioned according to a quota said to reflect voter registrations in the district.

Within this last factor lies the rub. It’s very likely that registered Conservative Party voters are much lower in proportion to Ds and Rs, since there’s not always a CP candidate running each year.

Further, we already know that there are huge numbers of Rs who’ve already decided on Hoffman.

That said, the poll’s pretty good for Hoffman.

TXUS on October 29, 2009 at 5:20 PM

If Scazzafava doesn’t drop out of this race and let Hoffman take it, then the NY GOP is exactly like the democrats in Washington: We don’t give a damn what you little people want; we’re going to do what WE want to do. Screw all of you.

Since that’s the case, I hope the democrat wins.

Rational Thought on October 29, 2009 at 5:22 PM

Conservatives really need to work on that 18-29 group. Close that gap. It’s always a killer.

lorien1973 on October 29, 2009 at 4:22 PM

Luckily, that group doesn’t tend to vote in these kinds of elections. The 40+ groups do, and that’s great news.

SouthernGent on October 29, 2009 at 5:26 PM

Tonight’s NY 23 tv debate

The debate scheduled to be shown on tv at 7:00 PM is apparently already filmed as the the tv station hosting the debate has already posted written excerpts from the debate on their website. That website also states, “the entire debate will be posted” on their website, though the site doesn’t state when it will be posted.

UPDATE: the website now has post debate video reaction up from all three candidates.

The website

Basil Fawlty on October 29, 2009 at 5:31 PM

Plus, I also hated Bush2. He could have done so much more in the last 8 years but he failed miserably.

In the same token, it’s Conservativism that made America as a great nation. Not Liberalism that caused the decline of Europe and modern-day America.

TheAlamos on October 29, 2009 at 5:13 PM

Hate is such an ugly word. Bush2 did several things wrong, but he truly loved America. Lincoln wasn’t perfect, Reagan wasn’t either. I think he was one of our most compassionate presidents ever. He shouldered a hugh burden, and handled it with grace under intense fire.
He made mistakes, yes, but I think hate is too strong a word for a man who only wanted to serve America.
And I will take Laura over Michelle ANY day! Their’s was a true love story.

lovingmyUSA on October 29, 2009 at 5:33 PM

Then why is Obama sending his campaign manager to help Owens…

lovingmyUSA on October 29, 2009 at 5:14 PM

To claim a victory on Tuesday to offset Virgina. It is just for show. The seat will most likely flip right back in 2010 if lost to the GOP.

WashJeff on October 29, 2009 at 5:33 PM

To claim a victory on Tuesday to offset Virgina. It is just for show. The seat will most likely flip right back in 2010 if lost to the GOP.

WashJeff on October 29, 2009 at 5:33 PM

Yeah but that 1 vote can do a lot of damage in a year. Remember, cap n tax won by 7 votes in the house. ObamaCare might come down to a few votes too.

angryed on October 29, 2009 at 5:34 PM

The Scozzo voters will go for Hamilton or not vote

Hamilton wins.

Next……

Janos Hunyadi on October 29, 2009 at 5:36 PM

Yeah but that 1 vote can do a lot of damage in a year. Remember, cap n tax won by 7 votes in the house. ObamaCare might come down to a few votes too.

angryed on October 29, 2009 at 5:34 PM

one vote of a 70-seat majority? Not too worried.

That battle is in the senate anyway.

Virgina’s is the Dems bug-a-boo.

WashJeff on October 29, 2009 at 5:36 PM

Research 2000, their pollster, is a reputable outfit

Not if they accept work from Kos.

I just checked Research 2000′s website, to see what newspapers they did work for. Here is the partial list, and who they endorsed for President.

Bergen Record=Democrat

Raleigh News and Observer = Democrat

Concord Monitor (my local NH lefty rag) = Democrat

New London Day = Democrat

Reno Gazette = Democrat

Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel = Democrat

St. Louis Post-Dispatch = Democrat

More of their background

Our Polls can be seen on CNN’S “Inside Politics” and are also mentioned frequently in the National Journal’s “Political Hotline”, The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Christian Science Monitor, and The Wall Street Journal. Visit our In the News Page to see some online examples of this.

Some of our non media clientele include NEA affiliates in (Idaho, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and Washington), Sullivan & LeShane, The New Mexico Gaming Commission, Vermont Power Electric, The Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers, and NCG Porter Novelli.

Not a lot of non-partisanship there, at least to these eyes.

Del Dolemonte on October 29, 2009 at 5:40 PM

If Scazzafava doesn’t drop out of this race and let Hoffman take it, then the NY GOP is exactly like the democrats in Washington: We don’t give a damn what you little people want; we’re going to do what WE want to do. Screw all of you.

Since that’s the case, I hope the democrat wins.

Rational Thought on October 29, 2009 at 5:22 PM

In an inverse “Game-Theory” kind of way, I agree with you.

Soon the GOP will be dead to me. And the Donks can go visit the horned one as well.

Dede must concede.
Dede must concede.
Dede must concede.

Geochelone on October 29, 2009 at 5:41 PM

If Hoofman and Scozzafava loses this race then this will be a sad time for the GOP/Conservatives.

Losing an easily winnable seat?

ckoeber on October 29, 2009 at 5:41 PM

If Hoffman wins this Newt and the RNC will be in hiding for a long time.

thmcbb on October 29, 2009 at 5:42 PM

If Hoofman and Scozzafava loses this race then this will be a sad time for the GOP/Conservatives.

Losing an easily winnable seat?

ckoeber on October 29, 2009 at 5:41 PM

It will only be sad if Owens gets > 50% of the vote; otherwise, the seat is coming back home in 12 months.

WashJeff on October 29, 2009 at 5:44 PM

More proof that republicans are NOT conservative.

Hey RCN and GOP, we are watching. Don’t fark it up.

Dede must concede. Hoffman could win anyway, but IF he does not, they Allah is right—BACKLASH.

Geochelone on October 29, 2009 at 5:45 PM

Hi, Newt.

Jim Treacher on October 29, 2009 at 5:46 PM

Nitpicking a bit.

“Instead, they polled Hoffman’s supporters on that question, which was stupid given that he’s vaulted past her and thus is no longer the one playing spoiler.”

This assumes the pollsters would know the results before they started polling, which may not have been the case.

Mister Mets on October 29, 2009 at 5:47 PM

Hi, Jim

WashJeff on October 29, 2009 at 5:49 PM

Peasant 3: Well, she turned me into a newt!
Sir Bedevere: A newt?
Peasant 3: [meekly after a long pause] … I got better.

Heh…

Jeff2161 on October 29, 2009 at 5:55 PM

Im not a Dan Riehl fan, but he did some great reporting on this race and uncovered the real culprits of the conservative betrayel – the GOP.
http://www.riehlworldview.com/carnivorous_conservative/2009/10/how-the-nrcc-bungled-ny-23.html

TCOT breaks it down really well also: http://www.tcotreport.com/

True_King on October 29, 2009 at 6:20 PM

AP, come one man, KOS and Poll in the same sentence? You know pollsters get paid to provide the results the client wants, don’t you? Jeepers.

The conservative pollsters have Hoffman like five points ahead. Dede’s supporters will vote Hoffman at crunch time. She should withdraw since she’s gotta see she absolutely cannot win and throw her support behind the real conservative.

Or Hoffman can just keep bangin’ home the message.

dogsoldier on October 29, 2009 at 6:24 PM

Bear in mind that a lot of Scuzzy’s support is from people who’ve been told over and over and over again that Hoffman is “unelectable.”

As more of these polls come out, she’ll drop off like an old scab.

logis on October 29, 2009 at 6:46 PM

No one has mentioned Kos for a long time around here. I have not missed him.

jeanie on October 29, 2009 at 7:07 PM

Who’s the dude in the picture? Is that Hoffman or Owens? Because I know Dede’s female.

LtE126 on October 29, 2009 at 7:09 PM

Dede cannot help that she is not very attractive. Yes, I know she can do something about her weight. I do not care who wins in the 23rd except that it be someone with modicum of conservativism. Seems a shame that this aim should be in jeopardy because of the competition between Scozzafava and Hoffman.

jeanie on October 29, 2009 at 7:14 PM

Daily Kos poll: Owens 33, Hoffman 32, Scozzafava 21, Kucinich 42, Nader 16, Chomsky 65, Arafat 22, Mao 33, Ho Chi Minh 34, Leary 18, P. Ireland 39 & the pants in the family.

Doorgunner on October 29, 2009 at 7:24 PM

… because of the competition between Scozzafava and Hoffman.

jeanie on October 29, 2009 at 7:14 PM

What competition?

Doorgunner on October 29, 2009 at 7:25 PM

“Dede cannot help that she is not very attractive.”

Yes she can. Stop it. Women like her WANT to look that way.

LtE126 on October 29, 2009 at 7:34 PM

Conservatives really need to work on that 18-29 group. Close that gap. It’s always a killer.

lorien1973 on October 29, 2009 at 4:22 PM
They are like one day old pups. They do not have their eyes open yet.

Johan Klaus on October 29, 2009 at 5:00 PM

And what sensory input they’ve been exposed to has been limited to our education system indoctrination centers.

Archimedes on October 29, 2009 at 8:22 PM

For contrast, here’s the LAST Kos poll compared to this latest Kos poll.(courtesy of Real Clear Politics)

10/19 – 10/21 600 LV

Hoffman 23%

Owens 35%

Scozzafava 30%

Owens +5

And the latest:

10/26 – 10/28 600 LV

Hoffman 32%

Owens 33%

Scozzafava 21%

Owens +1

Note that Hoffman didn’t just over take Scozz, Hoffman’s also pulled into a statistical dead heat, better than Scozz was doing.

Hoffman, I would suspect, will be leading in the next poll, as Scozz’s supporters realize she’s sunk.

Remember: This poll was taken when Scozz supporters were under the impression she had a chance.

SuperCool on October 30, 2009 at 3:24 AM

Isn’t it true that the Democrats might not be unhappy to see Hoffman win this given the encouragement it would provide to third-party conservative challengers next year?

I don’t really care whether Democrats find this a good strategy for themselves. If they need a 3rd party spoiler when they control everything then it just proves how bad they suck at running on their own agenda and how crappy their agenda is.

And, conversely, that the GOP might not be sad to see Owens win, knowing what a stern cautionary tale this would be for right-wing independents mulling midterm runs of their own?

If the GOP thinks it needs to spank itself and the people who provide the hard earned dollars that prop their crappy candidates up then fine. It just shows how disrespectful they are of the base and Conservatives and how little they care about Reagan type Conservative values. That’s not a BIG winning strategy for the future either. I mean, essentially, what you are saying is that the GOP will punish it’s members with a Democrat in order for us to see the light of voting for Liberals just because they have been endorsed by the GOP. That’s worked good with McCain, didn’t it? Good luck with that.

Sultry Beauty on October 30, 2009 at 2:35 PM

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