Breaking: Iran rejects west’s nuclear deal

posted at 8:05 pm on October 29, 2009 by Allahpundit

Robert Kagan wondered this morning if The One will ever be prepared to play hardball with Iran or if the “plan” is, in fact, eternal negotiation while they perfect their bombmaking technique.

We’ll know soon.

The proposal would have depleted Iran’s stockpile of nuclear fuel below the threshold necessary for making a single nuclear bomb, possibly creating diplomatic breathing room for a broader agreement between Tehran and those worried about its atomic research program.

But according to the diplomat, Iran wants to send its uranium abroad in smaller batches over an undetermined stretch of time rather than the lump transfer by year’s end outlined under the proposal offered by International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei.

Such a change would allow Iran to quickly replenish its stock.

Further disappointing the West, Iran did not submit a formal written response as expected, the diplomat said. Instead, Iran’s envoy to the atomic energy agency, Ali Ashgar Soltanieh, described the offer to ElBaradei.

The whole point of the deal, which The One had called a “constructive beginning,” was to get as much of Iran’s uranium out of its hands as possible. That way, even if they continued to enrich uranium at home, they wouldn’t have enough on hand to build a bomb. So much for that. More from the NYT:

A senior European official characterized the Iranian response as “basically a refusal.” The Iranians, he said, want to keep all their lightly enriched uranium in the country until the I.A.E.A. provides the fuel assemblies of fuel for the reactor in Tehran, produced and fabricated from foreign uranium.

Only then do the Iranians say that they would be willing to export their own lightly enriched uranium. “So it’s all virtual,” the official said.

“The key issue is that Iran does not agree to export its lightly enriched uranium,” he said. “That’s not a minor detail. That’s the whole point of the deal.”…

American officials are concerned that the Iranians are planning to run out the clock and continue processing uranium so that they can either build a weapon or attain “breakout capacity,” the ability to build one within a few months. Some diplomats involved in the negotiations are also concerned that Iran may have more nuclear fuel in its stockpile than it has acknowledged, and may indeed already possess breakout capacity.

This is the punchline to the stories this morning about Ahmadinejad trumpeting “cooperation” with the west in his latest speech. “Cooperation” is simply a euphemism for further negotiation, which accomplishes Iran’s goal of buying time. Dinnerjacket knew that news was about to break that the west’s offer had been rejected and this was his way of sounding conciliatory so that they’ll hold off on sanctions and keep talking. And you know what? They probably will. In fact, the biggest absurdity here is that this deal was likely to achieve next to nothing even if Iran had agreed to it. Danger Room estimated last week that, given current Iranian capabilities, had they shipped the bulk of their uranium to France or Russia they probably could have replenished their supply in as little as three or four months. The fact that they turned Obama down anyway only goes to show how resolute they are about not making concessions to the west, even if those concessions are meaningless in practice. Exit question: Sanctions now?


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Comment pages: 1 2

progressoverpeace on October 29, 2009 at 9:26 PM

That is all probably true, but Israel now knows that if it to survive at all, it will have to stop Iran all on its own. And Obama may actually want to rethink some of that strategy, because Israel has a lot of resources in a lot of places, and unlike Iran it has an established and well developed nuclear weapons program, with many years of top drawer design and planning. If the US and the UN can’t figure out how to stop the ragtag Taliban, what in the hell would they do with the Mossad and IDF? The potential for great harm staggers the mind. Even Obama can’t be stupid enough to leave Israel with nothing to lose. Oh wait. Maybe he can, no one else is.

MikeA on October 29, 2009 at 9:35 PM

It is a Kabuki Dance. The players all have their parts and the outcome is already set.

MB4 on October 29, 2009 at 9:36 PM

Exit question: Sanctions now?

Ummmmmm…no.

Some diplomats involved in the negotiations are also concerned that Iran may have more nuclear fuel in its stockpile than it has acknowledged, and may indeed already possess breakout capacity.

Ya think???
Any Western leader that believes anything coming out of Tehran has even a grain of truth in it is seriously naive.
Oh, wait…we don’t actually have a leader, do we? Just an enabler in chief.

uncivilized on October 29, 2009 at 9:39 PM

Thank you, canopfor. I kept an eye on things with my cell, but I was jonesing for my HA.

HornetSting on October 29, 2009 at 8:28 PM

HornetSting: Hehe,I hear ya!:)

canopfor on October 29, 2009 at 9:44 PM

Does anyone besides me think Obama likea to take it up his butt?

He’s done that repeatedly with Ahmedinejad.

What was he said- he wanted to give Iran until October to come around?

Then again, he didn’t say what year….

drjohn on October 29, 2009 at 9:45 PM

canopfor on October 29, 2009 at 8:24 PM
You OpFor guys just live to F with the head, don’tcha?
Tres trippy. Thanx.

Doorgunner on October 29, 2009 at 8:30 PM

Doorgunner: Hehe,yes! Keep you on your toes,er wait,that
doesn’t sound right!!:)

canopfor on October 29, 2009 at 9:47 PM

“Lord of War” story at American Thinker tells the tale of a Russian Arms dealer caught by a sting in Thailand orchestrated by the Bush admin. It seems that Thailand has refused to extradite him to the US. Russia is defending the arms dealer. And Obama is set to try and convince Thailand to extradite him to the US when he goes on this Asia trip. Odds on who will win? Situation with Iran makes the release of an arms dealer very interesting for all of our futures.

Last month, a Thai court refused to extradite Bout to the U.S., finding that FARC is not a terrorist group. That ruling is now on appeal. If Bout is returned to Russia, it’s clear he will be treated not as a bloodthirsty killer, but as a national hero. (Andrei Lugovoi, who was fingered in the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko, sets the precedent: he reentered Russia not just to a hero’s welcome, but also to a seat in parliament.)

Bout has been linked to arms shipments to the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and has been accused by the U.S. Justice Department of conspiring to kill Americans. Barack Obama is traveling to Asia next month, and he has promised to lobby for Bout’s extradition. But after Obama’s festival of Russia-appeasement when he visited Moscow in July, topped off by a unilateral withdrawal of America’s missile defense system in Eastern Europe, it’s hardly likely anyone will take him seriously, let alone the Russians.

So if somebody else in the U.S. government doesn’t do something soon, our little friend Victor is going to slip once again into the Russian night.

journeyintothewhirlwind on October 29, 2009 at 9:50 PM

journeyintothewhirlwind on October 29, 2009 at 9:50 PM

Good gravy. About the only chance to stop that skunk would be to have a black-ops group extradite him to be judged by Saint Peter at the pearly gates. Our diplomatic status is a complete joke, getting Bout extradited would literally be a ‘lottery win’.

Dark-Star on October 29, 2009 at 9:53 PM

What was he said- he wanted to give Iran until October to come around?

Then again, he didn’t say what year….

drjohn on October 29, 2009 at 9:45 PM

Anyone want to start a betting pool on what date the next deadline will be? I’m going to go with January 17th. No particular reason, just a guess. Any takes on the bets.

MikeA on October 29, 2009 at 9:57 PM

Dark-Star on October 29, 2009 at 9:53 PM

My thoughts exactly. That ” the world will love us, now that Obama is Prez” isn’t quite working out. The Thai’s seems to have allowed us to run a sting to catch the guy while Bush was President, but now, under Obama, won’t extradite him.
And the Thai courts deciding that FARC isn’t a terrorist group? What is up with that nonsense. Didn’t they read the story of the rescue of our soldiers and that Columbian woman from a FARC camp where they tied them up like dogs? Good grief.

journeyintothewhirlwind on October 29, 2009 at 10:05 PM

canopfor on October 29, 2009 at 9:28 PM

Exactly!!! They do have a mat for Mr. Precedent reserved. You never know when he might decide to join the beer summit.

antisocial on October 29, 2009 at 10:09 PM

Okay Barry, tomorrow is OCTOBER 30TH! IS THIS THE FINAL DEADLINE?

OR ARE YOU GOING TO DRAW ANOTHER LAME LINE IN THE SAND?

GarandFan on October 29, 2009 at 10:41 PM

Okay Barry, tomorrow is OCTOBER 30TH! IS THIS THE FINAL DEADLINE?

OR ARE YOU GOING TO DRAW ANOTHER LAME LINE IN THE SAND?

GarandFan on October 29, 2009 at 10:41 P

M

Don’t you know that schools have Halloween parties tomorrow? Give the man a break, he has to decide if the girls can wear the sleezy princess outfits or Star Wars. He has no time for Iran until that important issue is settled.

journeyintothewhirlwind on October 29, 2009 at 10:54 PM

Don’t you know that schools have Halloween parties tomorrow? Give the man a break, he has to decide if the girls can wear the sleezy princess outfits or Star Wars. He has no time for Iran until that important issue is settled.
journeyintothewhirlwind on October 29, 2009 at 10:54 PM

Sorry, feeling very frustrated with Obama.

I wouldn’t be surprised though if they hold a Halloween party at the WH this weekend.

journeyintothewhirlwind on October 29, 2009 at 11:09 PM


Smart Power…..
…..time for another Nobel Prize.

Baxter Greene on October 29, 2009 at 11:14 PM

No surprise, eh?

AnninCA on October 29, 2009 at 11:44 PM

Whew.. glad to see Obama was right on this one… wait… err… nevermind.

I guess we’ll have to give him some more slack on this one. After all, if it weren’t for Bush, Iran would love us and never would have even considered creating nukes.

Bless his widdle heart, Obama is being treated so badly by the Iranians. Don’t they know he’s the most wonderfullest president ever? Don’t they know he’s the smartest, most literate and intelligent leader we’ve ever had?

At least he getting the Nobel Prize for all his hard work over the years bringing peace and stability to the world.

*gack* I threw up in my mouth a little there…

Mad Mad Monica on October 29, 2009 at 11:55 PM

Obama dithers, Israel withers…

magicky on October 30, 2009 at 1:45 AM

And I thought we’d have a nice sit down Goat Summit this week too.

Rbastid on October 30, 2009 at 2:38 AM

Democrats and their Presidents were idiotic when it comes to War.

They are more disastrous. Bush2′s war costing 6000+ soldiers would be translated into Obama’s 100,000 deaths of soldiers.

That’s the price of wishy-washy Commander in chief.

Look at the cost of Roosevelt’s dilly-dallying during WW2. Yes, we won. But the casualties were too huge for a celebration. Never mind JFK/LBJ fiasco in Vietnam.

I prefer Obama not to do anything at all despite the brewing real threat.

Let a new strong President in 2012 deal with it.

TheAlamos on October 30, 2009 at 7:30 AM

OK everyone, act SHOCKED.

I’M SHOCKED !!!!!

patrick neid on October 30, 2009 at 8:13 AM

I prefer Obama not to do anything at all despite the brewing real threat.

Let a new strong President in 2012 deal with it.

TheAlamos on October 30, 2009 at 7:30 AM

Funny you should mention it, but this whole situation looks a lot like 1979. Carter kept backing up over his own tail. We finally put the right man in the oval office and he dealt with it.

Blacksmith8 on October 30, 2009 at 9:25 AM

Okay Barry, tomorrow is OCTOBER 30TH! IS THIS THE FINAL DEADLINE?

OR ARE YOU GOING TO DRAW ANOTHER LAME LINE IN THE SAND?

GarandFan on October 29, 2009 at 10:41 PM

Obama will draw a line in the sand… trap.

And putt.

profitsbeard on October 30, 2009 at 9:41 AM

Our country is transforming from the “Bully” under W to the kid getting the wedgie and stuffed in a locker under Dear Leader Obama. The only question is can Obama make this country look any weaker? “Stop….or I’ll ask you to stop again!”

search4truth on October 30, 2009 at 10:35 AM

Maybe he can invite them over for a fake beer summit at the White House and let them use the peoples prayer rug while they are there>

bluegrass on October 30, 2009 at 11:04 AM

What’s worse with this story is that the media was trumpeting how Obama scored big with this deal before the ink was even dry. It was only the right blogosphere and Fox which realistically said this supposed ‘agreement’ on enrichment was just another stalling tactic by Iran and would not be implemented. But Fox isn’t a real news organization. Anyway, Iran has already stated as far back as a month ago, that based upon its meetings with the US, no sanctions (er I mean ‘pressure track’ under Obamaspeak) is on the table no matter what Iran does or doesn’t do. Talk about ‘smart diplomacy’. With all those nukes that will be exploding from Iran into its neighbors, under Obama, ‘the future’s so bright, I got to wear shades’.

eaglewingz08 on October 30, 2009 at 11:26 AM

Actually, I am surprised.

I thought Iran had figured out a way to get give Obama cover to stop pressing them and still get their bomb, so I figured the agreement would go through and only later would we find out that it was a waste of time.

Count to 10 on October 30, 2009 at 11:34 AM

Actually, I am surprised.

I thought Iran had figured out a way to get give Obama cover to stop pressing them and still get their bomb, so I figured the agreement would go through and only later would we find out that it was a waste of time.

Agreed. Makes you wonder if they have really thought out this tweak the tiger’s tail strategy… Ok, in this case kitten’s tail, but you get my meaning.

WitchDoctor on October 30, 2009 at 12:26 PM

Ahh.. the smell of nuanced diplomacy in the morning… it smells like… fallout. Good for the sinuses, though, if you can survive it.

ajacksonian on October 30, 2009 at 12:33 PM

Wacademia dispels Iran myths;

Cornell: Visiting Prof Dispels Iran Myths

…While the debunking of these myths will better help one understand where Iran is coming from, the central reasoning behind the nuclear program can be best understood by realizing Iran’s main goal — to become the regional superpower of the Persian Gulf, according to Mehrzad.

“Iran wants to be recognized as the big kid on the block,” Mehrzad said, “and they can’t do that if everyone else on the block has nukes and they don’t.”

According to Mehrzad, understanding this concept is the key to making sense of where Iran stands with its nuclear weapons programs. “If we can visualize this perspective, then we can see that there is nothing we can really do to stop them,” he said.

Mehrzad believes that by coming to terms with this realization, the Obama Administration and the United States can avoid a larger conflict with the Muslim world.

/relax

Terp Mole on October 30, 2009 at 3:51 PM

The winning team bringing Hope and Change to adoring foreigners relieved that the Evil Bush is finally gone.

We haven’t seen this much American greatness exported worldwide since Buffalo Bill Cody’s Wild West Show.

An extravaganza of PEACE worthy of concurrent Nobel Peace Prizes for the next ten years I tell ya!

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 30, 2009 at 4:43 PM

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