Obama’s new Afghanistan strategy: Protect the cities and cede the countryside to the Taliban; Update: Who feeds whom?

posted at 9:17 pm on October 28, 2009 by Allahpundit

This makes perfect sense to me — as a political strategy. Militarily, it sounds like they’re creating another Lebanon, where Hezbollah dominates the south of the country but by and large leaves Beirut alone (aside from the occasional advance to remind the government who’s boss). If you think having U.S. drones in the sky over Taliban-controlled areas will keep Al Qaeda out — which hasn’t happened in the Pakistani tribal areas, although I guess hope springs eternal — then fair enough. Politically, though, it’s perfectly sound. Hawks get a build-up in urban areas, which aren’t under threat, and doves get fewer new troops deployed to Afghanistan than expected, and it’s all very reasonable and compromise-y and Change-ish. And of course it shows voters how firm Obama’s hand is on foreign policy, declining McChrystal’s request for a big troop increase in favor of a more modest, nuanced one.

Sure, it means essentially ceding huge parts of the country to jihadist nutbags. But that’s how “pragmatism” works, baby.

At the moment, the administration is looking at protecting Kabul, Kandahar, Mazar-i-Sharif, Kunduz, Herat, Jalalabad and a few other village clusters, officials said. The first of any new troops sent to Afghanistan would be assigned to Kandahar, the Taliban’s spiritual capital, seen as a center of gravity in pushing back insurgent advances.

But military planners are also pressing for enough troops to safeguard major agricultural areas, like the hotly contested Helmand River valley, as well as regional highways essential to the economy — tasks that would require significantly more reinforcements beyond the 21,000 deployed by Mr. Obama this year…

[The new] strategy would be open to complaints that American and allied forces were in effect giving insurgents free rein across large parts of the nation, allowing the Taliban to establish ministates with training camps that could be used by Al Qaeda…

Military officers said that they would maintain pressure on insurgents in remote regions by using surveillance drones and reports from people in the field to find pockets of Taliban fighters and to guide attacks, in particular by Special Operations forces.

But a range of officials made the case that many insurgents fighting Americans in distant locations are motivated not by jihadist ideology, but by local grievances, and are not much of a threat to the United States or to the government in Kabul.

That’s the whole bet, succinctly stated — that, if left alone to govern themselves, the Afghans fighting alongside the Taliban will behave like most Iraqi Sunni insurgents and lay down their arms. If that bet proves wrong, then the only thing preventing the creation of a de facto Talibanistan in the rest of the country will be … drones. More from Max Boot:

The Taliban right now are still working to secure the countryside and it would be a grave mistake if we allowed them to pursue that strategy hindered only by a few air strikes that inevitably would be ineffective unless we had troops on the ground to generate accurate targeting intelligence. That doesn’t mean that we should send forces into remote outposts where no one lives. McChrystal is, in fact, pulling back such small bases, and rightly so. But his strategy envisions major operations to secure the Helmand River Valley, a rural area but one with plenty of substantial towns and villages. This is the economic heart of southern Afghanistan and the country’s major poppy-growing region. His strategy also envisions taking control of the rural areas that surround major cities such as Kandahar and Kabul. In the case of the capital, that means pacifying provinces to the south such as Logar and Wardak. The approaches to those cities have been in the grip of the Taliban, and breaking their vice grip will require more troops.

Similarly, Baghdad did not start to become secure in 2007 until the U.S. deployed substantial surge troops to the “gates” of the city — the belt of rural territory surrounding the capital including the “triangle of death” to the south. If the Obama strategy does not envision a similar offensive in Afghanistan, it will be making a terrible mistake. But if such an offensive is planned it will take a lot of troops — 10,000 to 20,000 probably won’t cut it, especially if most of those are providing combat “enablers” (medevac, air support, route clearance, intelligence, and the like).

The kindest thing that can be said about The One’s strategy, I think, is that it may quiet the Taliban down for a year or two, just long enough for us to declare victory in training the Afghan army and then skedaddling before the inevitable offensive on the country’s population centers begins. If the jihadists have any strategic sense at all, they’ll lie low for a while after moving back into the countryside to give Obama some political cover (see, we can trust them!) and to consolidate their gains. If they’re willing to fight for seven years to reclaim the country, they should be willing not to fight for two or three to create enough space for The One to pull out. Then they can make their move and, when they do, we can shrug it off as us having done what we could. There’s your “exit strategy,” I guess.

Update: Via e-mail, a great question from a military reader.

One thing I’ve noticed that’s missing from every single city vs. country argument I’ve ever heard, and seems entirely applicable to the recent post on Hot Air: When city and country disagree, who feeds who?

Do the people in the countryside get their daily bread from food grown in the cities? No, it seems to work the opposite way. The country folks grow the food if the government lets them, and then it’s shipped in to feed the city folks.

If the country folks decide they aren’t on the same team as the people in the city, well, sucks if you live in the city. Either get with the program, or get real thin real quick. At least American liberals in coastal cities have big corporations to provide their organic foods from all over the world, what do you think the Afghanis have while they’re under assault by jihadist extremists?

Blowback

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Comment pages: 1 2

So, they wait…

deedtrader on October 28, 2009 at 9:19 PM

What an embarrassment we have in the White House.

Vyce on October 28, 2009 at 9:23 PM

That sounds a lot like Viet Nam in the early ’70s….

notropis on October 28, 2009 at 9:23 PM

It beats no strategy, to be sure.

AbaddonsReign on October 28, 2009 at 9:23 PM

God help our military.

SouthernGent on October 28, 2009 at 9:24 PM

Exactly as I’ve been predicting. The Precedent will constantly stall as long as possible, then do as little as possible, and hang our troops out to dry. And, if you’re wondering what The Precedent’s real strategy behind this is:

To bleed the troops and America, bringing this situation to a point where Americans are begging to withdraw and we will have a humiliating defeat.

That is the strategy. Watch the Traitor-in-Chief carry it out, just as he’s been doing.

progressoverpeace on October 28, 2009 at 9:25 PM

We need the Biden strategy for the entire country.

Spathi on October 28, 2009 at 9:25 PM

Hawks get a build-up in urban areas, which aren’t under threat

Kabul isn’t an urban area, apparently.

Skandia Recluse on October 28, 2009 at 9:26 PM

Holy cow, hasn’t anybody in the White House studied the strategy of Mao??? Controlling the population centers puts you perpetually on the defense, and the enemy is ceded the offense!

Scribbler on October 28, 2009 at 9:27 PM

We need the Biden strategy for the entire country.

Spathi on October 28, 2009 at 9:25 PM

I can understand the attraction of Dr. Paul. He’s pretty smart — definitely smarter than me, even If I do think he’s a nutcase.

But when you start citing Plugs as your foreign policy expert, your credibility is shot….

notropis on October 28, 2009 at 9:30 PM

Obama revealed that his commitment to victory is as wide and as deep as a plasma TV screen. He’s all show and no mojo. The ball is now in McChrystal’s court.

Terrie on October 28, 2009 at 9:30 PM

Sounds like a strategy for failure.

If Obama only gives the Commander half his request, and orders this strategy, I hope the Commander tells him it’s the wrong plan, a bad plan, and then resigns–out in the public.

Enoxo on October 28, 2009 at 9:31 PM

So basically Obama is voting present on Afganistan.

farright on October 28, 2009 at 9:32 PM

Obama has no taste for war in Afghanistan only in America where he can control it all.

tim c on October 28, 2009 at 9:32 PM

Welcome to the end folks

MyImamToldMeToDoIt on October 28, 2009 at 9:33 PM

AbaddonsReign on October 28, 2009 at 9:23 PM

This is ‘no strategy’.

This is a disaster on teflon ball-bearings.

WITH the full JATO pack.

CPT. Charles on October 28, 2009 at 9:34 PM

This middle-of-the-road indistinct policy means Obama will get attacked from both sides in this fight. He doesn’t have the intestinal fortitude to take that kind of sniping for long. 6 months and we will see another re-calibration. How utterly sad to be a USA combat soldier under this panty waist president.

Metanis on October 28, 2009 at 9:35 PM

Well then…

Obama has just handed Al Qaeda and the Taliban about two hundred years of propaganda gold. Good thing they have a ‘Free and Independent’ press, as well as a liberal educational system that will educate generations of terrorists for decades to come on how to defeat the once great United States of America in a ‘Fair and Balanced’ way.

This child in the White House, this cowardly Fascist, this product of social engineering is going to go down in history as grasping defeat from the jaws of victory, and making the Killing Fields look like a drive by shooting…

Seven Percent Solution on October 28, 2009 at 9:35 PM

Like the saying goes, “The ‘Prevent Defense’ prevents you from winning.”

Left Coast Right Mind on October 28, 2009 at 9:35 PM

Holy cow, hasn’t anybody in the White House studied the strategy of Mao??? Controlling the population centers puts you perpetually on the defense, and the enemy is ceded the offense!

Scribbler on October 28, 2009 at 9:27 PM

You are absolutely correct. The Taliban will have free reign in the countryside to build bombs and train new recruits.

ICBM on October 28, 2009 at 9:36 PM

If we lose in Afghanistan, they’ll come back over here and stage an attack that will make 9/11 look like a rehearsal for the real thing.

BOHICA.

Jenfidel on October 28, 2009 at 9:36 PM

Get out now . This CIC is beyond incompetent. Is he trying to lose American lives ?

borntoraisehogs on October 28, 2009 at 9:36 PM

P A T H E T I C

Kenosha Kid on October 28, 2009 at 9:37 PM

Delay. Delay. Delay.

WisCon on October 28, 2009 at 9:37 PM

And now we have the beginning of the end. All that blood, wasted. Thanks for nothing, Barry.

OhioCoastie on October 28, 2009 at 9:38 PM

Holy cow, hasn’t anybody in the White House studied the strategy of Mao??? Controlling the population centers puts you perpetually on the defense, and the enemy is ceded the offense!

Scribbler on October 28, 2009 at 9:27 PM

Heh , funny you should ask about Mao..

the_nile on October 28, 2009 at 9:38 PM

This makes perfect sense to me — as a political strategy

And that’s all it is. Quiet things down, declare “victory” and leave. And hope to hell that you’re out of office when the shit hits the fan.

GarandFan on October 28, 2009 at 9:39 PM

I said this in an earlier thread … but is Obama the reincarnation of Confederate General Joseph E. Johnston?

“Hey, let’s retreat to Atlanta and fight the Yankees there!”

BUT …

On another note …

Why hasn’t anyone pointed out that while Obama dithers – the Taliban are out there trying to kill as many of our soldiers as they can in order to influence Obama’s decision?

Did I articulate that right?

Let me try again.

If I were a Taliban Commander – I’d be pulling the stops out right in making attacks on American soldiers in order to convince Obama that he can’t beat me – and to influence his decision to throw the white flag.

By delaying a decision – Obama is signing the death warrants of soldiers.

That is a fact and – as CINC – he ought to know that.

Make a decision!

HondaV65 on October 28, 2009 at 9:39 PM

…Because simply having the American Troops shot and dumped into mass graves would be too obvious.

Beltway Bandit on October 28, 2009 at 9:43 PM

Beltway Bandit on October 28, 2009 at 9:43 PM

Unfortunately, that’s not joke material anymore.

CPT. Charles on October 28, 2009 at 9:45 PM

The new strategy is the lesser of two evils. So give Obama some credit for that.

jimw on October 28, 2009 at 9:46 PM

OK then….

Between Obamacare and this, Obama and his shadow government is well on his way…

How’s that ‘Hope and Change’ working out for ‘ya…?

Seven Percent Solution on October 28, 2009 at 9:47 PM

Beltway Bandit on October 28, 2009 at 9:43 PM

Unfortunately, that’s not joke material anymore.

CPT. Charles on October 28, 2009 at 9:45 PM

I wish it were, and I wish it were political hyperbole. It isn’t. It’s is an outright betrayal of the American Service-members. I lost more than my fair share of comrades over there, and now the Traitor-in-chief has pissed on their sacrifice.

Beltway Bandit on October 28, 2009 at 9:48 PM

They’re Democrats.

Protect the cities, because the people in the country probably vote Republican and deserve to die.

malclave on October 28, 2009 at 9:49 PM

It’s sure as hell no recipe for victory. He’s building a bunch of Alamos. This man-child, with no desire to fight enemies, is sacrificing our military treasure.

PaCadle on October 28, 2009 at 9:49 PM

The kindest thing that can be said about The One’s strategy

It is really quite astounding that anyone thinks that Obama and McChrystal are at such odds and that this is such a new strategy.

We don’t win by destroying the Taliban. We don’t win by body count. We don’t win by the number of successful military raids or attacks, we win when the [Afghan] people decide we win.
- General McChrystal (in London some time ago)

Pre-occupied with protection of our own forces, we have operated in a manner that distances us — physically and psychologically — from the people we seek to protect.
- General McChrystal (from his COMISAF assessment of the war in Afghanistan)

Reading Gen. McChrystal’s Afghanistan assessment is easier than reading tea leaves, but judging by the murkiness of the debate about Afghanistan, few in the media or politics have read it. I say this having watched public discussion turn disagreement over troops levels into The Question of Consequence regarding overall strategy. Conservatives, listening to “the commander in the field,” play McChrystal as The Hawk who wants to crush America’s enemies into rubble (or, at least, more rubble than they are already in) as opposed to Obama The Wimp, whose hesitation and apparently dwindling support for a “surge” in Afghanistan threaten to turn McChrystal’s winning strategy into a politically correct and ineffective recipe for defeat.

But what really separates Obama and McChrystal? Judging by publicly available statements and writings, nothing much. Which is why — prediction time — McChrystal probably won’t quit when Obama gives him fewer forces than McChrystal is asking for.

Why? If you read McChrystal’s report, the general makes it very clear that his change in strategy, not his change in troop levels, is his top priority. But this change in strategy is almost always left out of debate — and certainly out of the conservative end of the debate, which focuses on giving the general the forces he wants to win. What McChrystal actually wants to win — the support of the Afghan people, which is the basis of his new strategy — is never mentioned.

This strategy change to “population protection” at the expense of “force protection” (or, better, this strategy change intensification because certainly key aspects of such a policy have long been in place) is in fact a politically correct and ineffective recipe for defeat, and, therefore, something right up the boss’s alley.
- Diana West

MB4 on October 28, 2009 at 9:50 PM

I’m waiting for an Obama apologist to explain how this plan leads to defeat of the Taliban and AQ and a stable Afghanistan that does not harbor threats to the USA as it did in the time leading up to 9/11/2001.

Meremortal on October 28, 2009 at 9:50 PM

I have a feeling that Anita Dunn would not approve of this strategy. I know her favorite political philosopher wouldn’t.

kozmocostello on October 28, 2009 at 9:53 PM

What we have here is the General involved in a great social experiment, with the plains of Afghanistan as his personal laboratory and our Marines and Soldiers as the rats. History is not on your side General and you are losing time and the support of the only segment of the population of this country who would normally support your efforts.

Admiral Mullen said in a letter to Senators Collins and Snowe (meant for me) that the ROE had not in fact changed with the ISAF Commander back in June 2009; The Rules of Engagement had only been ‘clarified’. Ganjgal is but one example of how that ‘clarification’ is being brought into question. The current investigation, if not buried by the Army, ISAF, SecDef or higher, is going to yield what we already know; that the rules are intentionally vague to offer maximum cover for those who have implemented them while exposing the decision makers on the ground and all at the expense of those prosecuting the war, O-5 and below. It is already painfully obvious to all, especially those on the ground, that before June we were blowing crap up and providing Air and Arty when needed and now; American lives are inferior to Afghan by our own rules and the UN has prosecutors in Kabul, gleaning after-action-reports looking for evidence they can use to prosecute Marines and Soldiers.

What General McChrystal, Sec Def Gates and President Obama need to remember is that they are sworn by oath to defend this country and our people – not protect the civilian population of another country or rebuild their country with our tax dollars and the blood of our children!
- John Bernard

MB4 on October 28, 2009 at 9:53 PM

That sounds exactly like the sort of indecisive plan a politician makes when he doesnt want to have to commit to making an actual decision that one way or another will result in public criticism.

Essentially Obama with this plan is trying to postpone an actual decision on what to ultimately do in Afghanistan until such time as it becomes less politically dangerous for him to do so. Basically He is trying to have his cake and eat it to.

Hellrider on October 28, 2009 at 9:53 PM

Obama DOES have an “exit strategy.” Blame Bush.

Star20 on October 28, 2009 at 9:56 PM

MB4 on October 28, 2009 at 9:53 PM

So, if you enclose the entire quote in link tags, does it make it more authoritative, or just harder to read?

notropis on October 28, 2009 at 9:56 PM

Hmmmm … couldn’t it also be applied to his domestic policy, ie:

Obama’s new Afghanistan political strategy: Protect the cities and cede the countryside to the Taliban Republicans.

PackerBronco on October 28, 2009 at 9:56 PM

Arm the populace and teach them to fight. Train them. All of them. Teach them it is their country they fight for. Their future to win or lose. To live under tyranny or freedom.

This whole, “We’re the U.S. military and we’re here to fight your battles for you,” is now and always has been crap. We end up in a stalemate looking for a defensible exit strategy.

War sucks. Make sure the people are in it for real and play to win, or don’t go.

Send the troops, train every able-bodied body with an eyeball and trigger finger and win this thing or get us the hell out.

ROCnPhilly on October 28, 2009 at 9:57 PM

We’ll make sure to hold onto Hue, Khe San, Saigon and some other Strategic Hamlets. If we keep the Viet Cong out of those places we will win the hearts and minds of the….

Ohh that was another war…

Whooops.

That sounds a lot like Viet Nam in the early ’70s….

notropis on October 28, 2009 at 9:23 PM

Exactly. This is no strategy. This is buying time to get “peace with honor.”

cobrakai99 on October 28, 2009 at 9:57 PM

MB4 on October 28, 2009 at 9:53 PM

So who was closest? I forget which thread the bets were on.

progressoverpeace on October 28, 2009 at 9:57 PM

The Taliban will be back in control within 2 years, give or take.

txag92 on October 28, 2009 at 9:57 PM

Obama’s new Afghanistan strategy: Protect the cities and cede the countryside to the Taliban

So, it looks like we’re about to get a two-fer.

“Peace in our time” as Kerry steps off the plane, and the Maginot Line in Afghanistan.

Obama watches as the world disintegrates around him.

BobMbx on October 28, 2009 at 9:58 PM

The only thing this last election was about anyways was whether or not the Neoconservatives got control of the military or not. They had Sarah Palin as a nice prop and there was a lot of yip-yawin, but for practical purposes that was the only thing that was being fought over.

Spathi on October 28, 2009 at 9:58 PM

Tactics and strategy have not been my study, and I am sure in this case are complex as hell, being that Afghanistan has a huge border with Pakistan and another very long border with Iran.

One could imagine stretching the supply lines for the enemy thin, but that would not work for Iran, which has unlimited resources in its mission to fight the U.S.A. Pakistan tribal leaders can only do so much, but if the Pakistan military steps in to aid the Taliban, then the strategy and tactics change all over again, and that is a serious possiblity.

Let’s pray Obama has a desire to stop terrorism. He might have an unspoken wish to allow the terrorists to create a new crisis that he can exploit.

Danzo on October 28, 2009 at 9:59 PM

Piss-ant community organizer as Commander in Chief? A pox on all that drank this coward’s Kool-aid. God have mercy on our troops.

Gang-of-One on October 28, 2009 at 10:02 PM

That sounds a lot like Viet Nam in the early ’70s….

notropis on October 28, 2009 at 9:23 PM

A lot like??!!! It is exactly like it.

Old Hippie Vet on October 28, 2009 at 10:02 PM

So apparently the new name of the strategy in Afghanistan is McChrystal Light?

where Hezbollah dominates the south of the country but by and large leaves Beirut alone (aside from the occasional advance to remind the government who’s boss)

Know too many Christians and Jews from Beirut with dead relatives at the hands of Hezbollah to agree with you completely

Branch Rickey on October 28, 2009 at 10:03 PM

Obama is doing everything he can to destroy America, even killing our soldiers, Chairman Mao would be so proud of him. This is why I consider Obama at the very top of the list of “Those who (Heart) Mao

doriangrey on October 28, 2009 at 10:06 PM

Maybe we should just pull back to Okinawa…/s

d1carter on October 28, 2009 at 10:06 PM

mb4 (10:01)

YOU LIE

McChrystal “What do you need here

“We need schools!” one Afghan called back. “Schools!”

“Security,” a man said. “We need security. Security first, then the other things will be possible.”

Skandia Recluse on October 28, 2009 at 10:08 PM

Nation-Building in Afghanistan: It Didn’t Work the First Time

Gen. McChrystal in London last week:

We don’t win by destroying the Taliban,” he said. “We don’t win by body count. We don’t win by the number of successful military raids or attacks, we win when the [Afghan] people decide we win.”

That would be the Afghan people, naturally, McChrystal’s unseemly and increasingly unhinged obsession. He continued:

“Why isn’t the situation better after eight years?” he said. “Afghans’ expectations have not been met. … ..

McChrystal said a clear change in “mindset” was needed because many current tactics are counterproductive and producing hostility and skepticism among Afghan civilians who must be convinced the coalition forces will improve their safety and quality of life.

Guess what, General? The United States of America has already tried improving Afghan safety and quality of life, and on a colossal scale, and it just didn’t stick. And back then, between 1946 and 1979, there was no Taliban “insurgency” complicating the social work of nation-building.

This decades-long episode of US-Afghan history has been erased from our national consciousness, pricked only by the odd “remember when” news report. Such national memory loss is probably due to the fact that these US efforts to improve Afghanistan — centered in Helmand Province, by the way, the Taliban-spawning, opium-growing region into which 4,000 US Marines “surged” this summer — have themselves been erased from Afghanistan. Of course, for nation-building utopians such as McChrystal [and apparently Barack Obama] — those from Right to Left who see different peoples and different cultures as interchangeable markers on a games board — reality never tempers the fanaticism.

MB4 on October 28, 2009 at 10:10 PM

Who would have thought we would still be having problems nine months after Barack was sworn in?

I mean besides all of us, here….

Star20 on October 28, 2009 at 10:12 PM

Under different circumstances in the current ROEs and civilian leadership, I would grimly acknowledge this move as a realization that we haven’t enough forces to put a soldier behind every sand dune and tree and rock.

But…our troops have been fighting massive media slander, spineless terrorist-hugging ‘leaders’ and constant attempts at budgetary backstabbing.

This is no less than a partial step to a full-out retreat (or God forbid even a rout) given by a completely clueless POTUS and cheered by a citizenry whose survival instincts appear to have gone AWOL.

We’ve just handed the towelheads a massive victory both propaganda-wise and tactics-wise…it will truly take a miracle now to pull a victory out of this mess.

Dark-Star on October 28, 2009 at 10:13 PM

If Obama only gives the Commander half his request, and orders this strategy, I hope the Commander tells him it’s the wrong plan, a bad plan, and then resigns–out in the public.Enoxo on October 28, 2009 at 9:31 PM

I agree. McChrystal could hardly worry about damaging the mission since there is no mission. Fighting a war of attrition in Afghanistan is a prescription for failure. This had the fingerprints of Biden all over it. He’s the genius who wanted to partition Iraq against the will of Iraqis. He would have turned low level sectarian violence into full scale civil war.

Basilsbest on October 28, 2009 at 10:18 PM

There are many reasons to fire Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, and all of them are contained within his 66-page “assessment” of the war in Afghanistan.

The document is fascinating, just as the work of zealots is always fascinating. As a high priest of the politically correct orthodoxy, McChrystal has laid out a strategy to combat Taliban jihad in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan without once mentioning Islam, and forget about jihad (fireable offense No. 1).

The resulting black hole leads the commander to conclude, for example, that the reason the 99 percent-plus Muslim people of Afghanistan are “reluctant to align with us” is due to the “perception” — eight years and untold billions in largesse after we entered the country — “that our resolve is uncertain.” Nothing so simple as what a member of the Afghan parliament recently told the Economist: “The Taliban tell them the Koran says they have to fight the Crusaders and they believe them.”

No, it’s all our fault. Seizing on the Left’s all-time favorite villain, the general blames us — our troops — for the Afghan people not liking us. And that, according to the report, is why we’re losing this war (fireable offense No. 2).

To win what McChrystal describes not as a battle in the war on global jihad (fireable offense No. 3), but rather as “the struggle to gain the support of the (Afghan) people,” (fireable offense No. 4), he writes that we must “connect with the people” — the same “people,” he acknowledges, who “can often change sides and provide tacit or real support to the insurgents” (fireable offense No. 5).

Turning battle-hardened Marines into Miss Congenialities who “must be seen as guests of the Afghan people” doesn’t mean our men have to wear swimsuits, but they do have to take off their armor (fireable offense No. 6). “Pre-occupied with protection of our own forces,” McChrystal writes, “we have operated in a manner that distances us — physically and psychologically — from the people we seek to protect.”

Frankly, McChrystal is “pre-occupied” with what he calls “population protection” in a manner that “distances” him — psychologically and emotionally — from the men and women under his command (fireable offense No. 7).

That a general could write so disparagingly of the means to preserve his soldiers at least to fight another day is despicable. But this is what zealots do. They serve theories, not men; they see visions, not reality. And that theory, that vision is akin to the familiar Marxist notion, likely imbibed during PC school days, that denies that identity, religion and culture matter. In the resulting tunnel vision, the so-called hearts-and-minds strategy looks like a winner.

MB4 on October 28, 2009 at 10:18 PM

Militarily, it sounds like they’re creating another Lebanon, where Hezbollah dominates the south of the country but by and large leaves Beirut alone (aside from the occasional advance to remind the government who’s boss).

No, he’s creating another Afghanistan, (the Soviet invasion kind). They also retreated into the cities, and used helicopters to fly supplies from city to city, once it grew too dangerous to transport supplies by trucks on the ground. When we started to supply the Mujahadeen with Surface to Air missiles, and started shooting their helicopters out of the sky, it was game over.

I’ve said it before on this board–while Iraq could be pacified by an urban “clear and hold” strategy, Afghanistan requires rural pacification. Iraq is an urbanized country–you could control it by clearing cities and showing the population that you were providing security.

In Afghanistan, the cities are the prizes for those who control the country. If we’re going to win, we need to deploy enough troops to “clear and hold” the rural environs.

Obama’s delay and mealy-mouthed response only tells me that he’s going to lose Afghanistan, but as slowly as possible.

Revenant on October 28, 2009 at 10:23 PM

I recommend this article to all, especially those impressed with mb4′s defeatism.

http://blog.stevenpressfield.com/wp-content/themes/stevenpressfield/one_tribe_at_a_time.pdf

Basilsbest on October 28, 2009 at 10:25 PM

MB4 on October 28, 2009 at 10:18 PM

So you’re a Diana West fan, and you really, really, really don’t like McChrystal.

I think we get it.

notropis on October 28, 2009 at 10:25 PM

General Obama willl simply split two loaves and a basket of fishes between all of the cities of Afgone-ee-stohn.

profitsbeard on October 28, 2009 at 10:33 PM

In I Corps in Vietnam, the Marines were in charge. Their commander, General Walt, developed a coastal enclave theory wherein the Marines would hold the populated coast and allow the VC/NVA to waste away in the rest of the sparsely populated area. It didn’t work and the 24th Army Corps had to be superimposed upon the northern area in order to hold it.

It looks like deja vu all over again.

I hope that Comrade Obama has realized that in addition to holding the populated areas, that the lines of communication throughout the country will also have to be held. Otherwise, our troops won’t be able to be resupplied or reinforced.

Special Forces Grunt on October 28, 2009 at 10:34 PM

Gotta love all the wannabe development and COIN experts.

Christien on October 28, 2009 at 10:35 PM

Revenant,

Presumably you’ve read the article to which I linked, which is all about how to win in the rural areas.

MB4, after you’ve conceded Afghanistan to the Taliban and al Qaeda and they rebuild and then attempt to take over Pakistan is that when you think we should re-enter the war against Global Jihad?

Unlike most people, you recognize that we are in a war against Global Jihad. What makes you think we can leave it and come back when we please? We paid a horrific price the last time we attempted to take a break from history. This time, the price will be even higher.

Basilsbest on October 28, 2009 at 10:38 PM

Revenant,

Presumably you’ve read the article to which I linked, which is all about how to win in the rural areas.

I’ve not read it before. I’m looking at it now.

Revenant on October 28, 2009 at 10:43 PM

I recommend this article to all, especially those impressed with mb4’s defeatism.

Basilsbest on October 28, 2009 at 10:25 PM

Faced with an ineffective and corrupt Afghanistan government, an extremely ineffective Afghan Army, continuing failure to win “Hearts and Minds” and “Unicorns and Flowers” and with no end in sight (Michael Yon says it may take 100 years), fatigue and deteriorating morale among the over used and abused American troops (who must now operate under ROE that does not put very much value on their lives) who were given the job of bringing Afghan Muslims into the twentieth century resistance to continue the war on the part of the American people and a rebellion in Congress with a threat to cut off funding, a reluctant President Barack H. Obama finally agreed to bring American forces home.

The failure of the Afghanistan war supporters to admit that President Barack Obama and Stan McChrystal’s Afghanistan Islamic nation building occupation policies had been ill advised and a profound failure would have a huge impact on their psyches and its impact would be manifest in their desire to involve the American nation and it’s military in yet another war and nation building occupation that they felt could be won this time thus bringing them vindication.

Many Neocon internet web sites and Neocon radio talk shows would support the false idea that President Barack Obama and Stan McChrystal’s Islamic nation building policies had been going very well and with just a little more time and just a few more tens of thousand of still more troops and just a little more stay the course the Afghanistan Islamic nation building occupation would have resulted in the building of a successful democratic, rule of law Afghanistan nation that would be an ally in the war against terror and serve as a shining example for the rest of the Middle East.

They believed that President Barack Obama and Stan McChrystal’s Afghanistan Islamic nation building occupation policies had been visionary and brilliant and would have soon succeeded, except for being betrayed at home, the infamous ‘Stab in the Back’ theory. (Similar to the myth and betrayal theory [Dolchstosslegende] popular in Germany in the period after World War I which attributed Germany’s defeat to a number of domestic betrayals instead of failed geostrategy.)

This ‘Stab in the Back’ theory would become hugely popular among many Neocon internet web sites and Neocon radio talk show hosts who found it impossible to accept the fact that President Barack Obama and Stan McChrystal’s Afghanistan Islamic nation building occupation policies had been very ill advised.

During the actual Afghanistan Islamic nation building fiasco, many Neocons became obsessed with this idea, especially laying blame on what they called “traitors”, “White flag wavers”, “defeatist cut and runners” and “surrender monkeys” in America for undermining the Afghanistan Islamic nation building effort. To the Neocons, and so many of their followers their fellow Americans, the clear majority of whom did not support President Barack Obama and Stan McChrystal’s Afghanistan Islamic nation building policies (according to a poll in another thread just today only 15% of democrats and only 18% of republicans, only a dab more, think that Afghanistan should be Obama’s priority) would become known as the ‘Defeatist Criminals.’

MB4 on October 28, 2009 at 10:43 PM

Again, we need to get the hell out now, cut and run now instead of cut and run later after couple hundred more of our children die pointlessly. No one has bucked history here, and the strategy is either conceited… or calculated to as said above, bleed our will and create a triumphant defeat.

Al queda are back in Yemen and Somalia, Barry, building a network of training camps. WTF are we doing country building Afstan and Iraq?

MarkT on October 28, 2009 at 10:48 PM

MB4 do you have a solution to this terrible mess, or should we all just slit our wrists now and get it over with?

Which would you prefer, to continue to whisper your hate into our ears, or do you prefer that we just give up?

Which would be more satisfying to you?

Skandia Recluse on October 28, 2009 at 10:51 PM

Michael Yon says it may take 100 years

MB4 on October 28, 2009 at 10:43 PM

Dude, you took that one waaay out of context. I won’t bother to read farther.

notropis on October 28, 2009 at 10:52 PM

This was Obama’s stance when he was telling everybody(along with every other democrat) that they had a better plan and would defeat Taliban/al-qaeda with their “smart power”:


“We’ve got to get the job done there and that requires us to have enough troops so that we’re not just air-raiding villages and killing civilians, which is causing enormous pressure over there.”


Barack Obama
On US troops in Afghanistan
August 14, 2007

Now apparently this is “smart power”.
If this is the route Obama is going to take,he will be pretty much air raiding villages and killing civilians(even with the terrible ROE’s our Soldiers are now under).

Securing the population centers is not the problem in Afghanistan.Although it is important, success in Afghanistan will come from securing and winning over the tribal areas:


One Tribe At A Time

http://blog.stevenpressfield.com/

SP: Your idea of Tribal Police Forces and a Tribal Alliance aims to counter both warlordism and Talibanism. Is that right?

Chief Zazai: Instead of an official government that is “warlord-centric” or a Shadow government that is “Taliban-centric” (which is what my country is suffering under now), what will work is a form of governance that is tribal-centric. The tribal system is the natural form of governance in Afghanistan and has been for thousands of years. And the U.S. will not achieve anything until it understands this.


The Afghan tribes wish for this cooperation and partnership with the U.S. Forces.
Afghan villagers do not like to see U.S. forces going into a village and searching the houses of ordinary people who have nothing to do with the Taliban, and they are sick and tired of the Taliban who are forcing these villagers and tribesmen for their needs which are water, food, money and safe houses. When cooperation gets going, the Afghan tribes will have an understanding with the U.S. forces. I believe this will bring not just a positive impact but a deep rooted relationship between the two nations (the United States of America & Afghanistan).

Obama’s strategy is certainly based on political cover and expediency.
The problem with trying to make “hawks and doves” happy is that it produces a plan that has to many holes in it and is destined to failure.
This will be Obama’s second “new strategy” under the guise of “smart power”.His whining about Bush will definitely have run it’s course and the failure here will be his and his alone.
The BUCK STOPS AT THE PRESIDENTS DESK.

It should be no surprise that when Barack “It’s all Bush’s and America’s fault” Obama spent all his time talking about withdrawal and reset buttons that the enemy would see this weakness as a chance to regroup and go on the offensive.

Deaths in Afghanistan have gone up dramatically since Obama took office and the Taliban have poured in there at a relentless pace:

Report: Taliban quadrupled in Afghanistan

Adam Entous REUTERS NEWS AGENCY
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/oct/10/report-taliban-quadrupled-in-afghanistan//print/

A U.S. intelligence assessment, showing the number of fighters in the insurgency has reached an estimated 25,000 from 7,000 in 2006, spotlights Taliban gains and the tough choices facing President Obama in trying to reverse the trend.

Protecting the population centers (who by the way have not been the main victims of the violence and attacks, but soon will be when the Taliban/Al-qaeda run the countryside)will not stop the flow of terrorist into the tribal regions where this war will be won or lost.
This plan is not proactive but defensive which will get our troops killed and continue to lead to instability in the government that the people will have no faith in while their neighbors are being blown to bits.
Obama appears to think that if the population centers are protected, the “little people” who will be slaughtered in the countryside will not make the papers,thus giving the impression of success and peace.Instead it will allow the enemy a vast area of recruiting and planning that will result in massive attacks and considerable loss of life.

All invading armies have taken the population areas in Afghanistan easily, it was the tribes that brought defeat and if we don’t address that now we will join them with a big fat “Hope and Change” stamp on it.

It’s the tribes stupid!!!

Baxter Greene on October 28, 2009 at 10:58 PM

Presumably you’ve read the article to which I linked, which is all about how to win in the rural areas.

No. I have learned to stay away from PDF’s.

MB4, after you’ve conceded Afghanistan to the Taliban and al Qaeda and they rebuild and then attempt to take over Pakistan

In case you hadn’t heard they are trying to take over Pakistan now. If there was a fire in California would you dump lots of water on Nevada?

is that when you think we should re-enter the war against Global Jihad?

It is going on all over the world and not unique to the obsession called Afghanistan. The 5-20 Muslims picked up/under surveillance (a few weeks ago now) were spotted in America, not Afghanistan. Most of the plotting for 9/11 was done from Hamburg and America and was financed by Saudis.

Unlike most people, you recognize that we are in a war against Global Jihad.

No we are not. “We” are fixated Islamic Nation Building in the center of the universe, the obsession called Afghanistan (with Islamic law enshrined in it’s U.S. sponsored constitution)

What makes you think we can leave it and come back when we please?

We “came back” in 2001 with drastically less loss of American troops in 2001 than we have had since 2001. Bush gave the Taliban at least 2 chances to turn over OBL and only invaded when they did not, so clearly to him, at least then when the mission was clearer 8 years ago, it was not about ousting the Taliban. And it has only gotten more costly in American Soldiers and Marines lives because of McChrystal’s anti American Soldiers and Marines ROE. Afghanistan has become like “The Bridge on the River Kwai” for McChrystal and a small minority of Americans.

We paid a horrific price the last time we attempted to take a break from history. This time, the price will be even higher.

Basilsbest on October 28, 2009 at 10:38 PM

Are you comparing Afghanistan to Vietnam or Germany? I have no idea.

MB4 on October 28, 2009 at 11:13 PM

MB4

Your statement They believed that President Barack Obama and Stan McChrystal’s Afghanistan Islamic nation building occupation policies had been visionary and brilliant and would have soon succeeded is disingenuous.

Firstly, what conservatives have said this would be easy? Secondly, the Obama /McChrystal plan hasn’t been tried and it doesn’t look like it’s going to be.

And you haven’t answered my question: MB4, after you’ve conceded Afghanistan to the Taliban and al Qaeda and they rebuild and then attempt to take over Pakistan is that when you think we should re-enter the war against Global Jihad.

Unfortunately the problem of Islamic Jihad can’t be solved by ignoring it. The more countries/victories they have, the more they will want.

Basilsbest on October 28, 2009 at 11:16 PM

Presumably you’ve read the article to which I linked, which is all about how to win in the rural areas.

Basilsbest on October 28, 2009 at 10:38 PM

We have been in Afghanistan for 8 years now. All but the last 9 months under “macho” Bush rather than “wimp” Obama and ain’t won yet. To the contrary. Secret or not secret plans to win, whatever that means, now in some indefinite period of years is beyond a day late and a dollar short especially with the anti-American Soldiers and Marines ROE.

MB4 on October 28, 2009 at 11:19 PM

We paid a horrific price the last time we attempted to take a break from history. This time, the price will be even higher.
Basilsbest on October 28, 2009 at 10:38 PM

Are you comparing Afghanistan to Vietnam or Germany? I have no idea.MB4 on October 28, 2009 at 11:13 PM

Were you asleep during the rise of Jihadism during the peaceful Clinton presidency?

Basilsbest on October 28, 2009 at 11:19 PM

This just reminds me how thankful we should be that Kerry didn’t win in 2004. Iraq would be… a proxy of Iran?
In trying not to put more soldiers in harms way, Dems decisions always end up costing more soldiers their lives. If this is Barack’s strategy, I’d rather pull out now.

libertyb4wealth on October 28, 2009 at 11:23 PM

Again, we need to get the hell out now, cut and run now instead of cut and run later after couple hundred more of our children die pointlessly. No one has bucked history here, and the strategy is either conceited… or calculated to as said above, bleed our will and create a triumphant defeat.

Al queda are back in Yemen and Somalia, Barry, building a network of training camps. WTF are we doing country building Afstan and Iraq?

MarkT on October 28, 2009 at 10:48 PM

Obviously you have never met these “children” fighting this war. They most certainly are not children and it’s insulting when uninformed remarks like yours are made.

Big John on October 28, 2009 at 11:26 PM

Secondly, the Obama /McChrystal plan hasn’t been tried and it doesn’t look like it’s going to be.

The McChrystal plan has been in effect for months and now it looks like the Obama/McChrystal small variation will be tried. Are you implying that more “input” from Obama would make it work and that Obama can make it work when Bush could not? If so, then lol.

And you haven’t answered my question:

Basilsbest on October 28, 2009 at 11:16 PM

I have. On this thread and many threads and over and over and over and over and over again and in many different ways. You, and some others, just don’t like the answers.

MB4 on October 28, 2009 at 11:27 PM

Strategic hamlets program redux. Next stop a pacification program.

If I recall the template, the left will start howling about secret incursions into Pakistan and the expansion of the war.

Oh wait, we need to wait for a Republican President before the anti war sentiment gets ginned up.

Is that Genghis John for Khan I hear bloviating in the wings?

R Square on October 28, 2009 at 11:29 PM

I may be a little ignorant on history, but isn’t that one of the things got us into trouble in Vietnam?

Along with running (or not running) the war from the White House, replacing a solid ally with who knows what, and a general left wing reluctance to choose ‘victory’ as the strategic objective…..

MrBrowncoat on October 28, 2009 at 11:29 PM

MB4

We have been in Afghanistan for 8 years now. All but the last 9 months under “macho” Bush rather than “wimp” Obama and ain’t won yet.

The strategy in the article to which I linked (and which you won’t read – though you will read articles in the commie mag, The Nation) hasn’t yet been tried on a wife ranging basis.

Basilsbest on October 28, 2009 at 11:29 PM

Obviously you have never met these “children” fighting this war. They most certainly are not children and it’s insulting when uninformed remarks like yours are made.

Big John on October 28, 2009 at 11:26 PM

Everybody is someone’s (usually two’s) child and I think the remark was almost certainly made in a concerned way, not an insulting way.

MB4 on October 28, 2009 at 11:32 PM

The strategy in the article to which I linked (and which you won’t read – though you will read articles in the commie mag, The Nation) hasn’t yet been tried on a wife ranging basis.

Basilsbest on October 28, 2009 at 11:29 PM

On Afghanistan and Islam I mainly read Diana West, Ralph Peters, Robert Spencer, Hugh Fitzgerald, Jihad Watch, LetThemFight and Atlas Shrugs (all of which are not pdf’s). I have, maybe even more importantly, read some good deal of what McChrystal, Obama’s hand-picked general, has said. I was not aware that they were a bunch of communists. Charles Johnson does say that at least some of them are neo-nazis, however.

MB4 on October 28, 2009 at 11:40 PM

The simple and salient truth is that Pakistan holds the keys to Afghanistan. This is a point George Friedman of Stratfor made years ago.

We need a large contingency of troops in country who are actively engaged with locals on a regular basis. The idea we can concede the countryside to the Taliban is a bad idea and a recipe for failure.

R Square on October 28, 2009 at 11:40 PM

No…not another Lebanon, but another Phu Bai. Ask the Marines how the enclave on Highway One worked out for them.

Limerick on October 28, 2009 at 11:41 PM

I’m with hawkdriver.

Christien on October 28, 2009 at 11:42 PM

Pretty good article from July by George Friedman.

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090713_strategic_calculus_and_afghan_war

R Square on October 28, 2009 at 11:47 PM

MB4 With the exception of Peters none of those good people are of any help in how to solve this problem over there. And I don\’t think isolationism would work even if there were a willingness to try it. Killing Muslims in massive numbers is at best a temporary solution. We must change their minds or at least convince them to give up the fight – as difficult as that may be. Sending a message of weakness will only embolden them. As you know al Qaeda are Global Jihadists. That’s it for tonight, so let me end by thanking you for your good joke.

Charles Johnson does say that at least some of them are neo-nazis, however.

Basilsbest on October 28, 2009 at 11:58 PM

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