Hope and change: McDonnell cruising in Virginia, Christie ahead in New Jersey

posted at 5:09 pm on October 27, 2009 by Allahpundit

Couple this with Hoffman’s maybe-yes-maybe-no lead in NY-23 and you’ve got the makings of a conservative thunderbolt next week, which would be spectacular in how it might affect the health-care debate. Christie doesn’t even have to win his race to throw a scare into the Blue Dogs; the fact that he’s ahead this late in a deep blue state despite his own less-than-scintillating appeal should be enough. Combine that with the realization that Virginia, last year’s biggest bellwether, is not only about to go red but red with a vengeance and ObamaCare fencesitters in Congress should have a lot to think about over Thanksgiving break. Here’s Chris Cillizza, putting two and two together in comparing Bob McDonnell’s blowout lead with new data showing 53 percent opposition in Virginia to the current health-care proposals:

Data points like this one suggest two important things in regards the 2010 midterms.

First, the American people — or at least likely voters in the swing state of Virginia — are not yet sold on the necessity or efficacy of the legislation. That’s especially true of politically critical independents as just 36 percent of them support the proposed changes to the health care system.

Second, among those who oppose it, that position is strongly held while among those who support it there is far less intensity. Nearly eight in ten (79 percent) of self-identified Republicans in the poll strongly oppose the proposed changes while 60 percent of self identified Democrats strongly support them. Those numbers suggest the sort of disparity between party base energy that could have a real impact on the races next November, which, if history is any guide, will be far lower turnout affairs than the 2008 presidential contest.

I’m mildly surprised that Palin didn’t play up the “kill ObamaCare” angle in endorsing McDonnell and Christie today. Without the sort of big-picture national angle from which Doug Hoffman’s benefiting, Mc and C probably can’t expect much in terms of nationwide grassroots donations. Frame their races as referendums on health care, though, and that’ll change in a hurry. Exit question: If all three win, is the public option finished?


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Comment pages: 1 2

Allahpundit: Exit question: If all three win, is the public option finished?

Let me think.

Hmmmm…

OK. I give up.

Tell us, Allahpundit! If all three win, is the public option finished?

Loxodonta on October 27, 2009 at 7:53 PM

StarfleetDud …tell us about O’s popularity in Va. and why it matters?

CWforFreedom on October 27, 2009 at 7:59 PM

Exit question: If all three win, is the public option finished?

Dunno, bit if Hoffman wins it will be about a 9.9 on the Richter scale.

ddrintn on October 27, 2009 at 10:25 PM

Obama made passing reference to the Republican front-runner, Bob McDonnell.

“We don’t need people who are slick, who say one thing and do another and go back to the policies of yesteryear,” he said. “They got us in trouble in the first place.”

Obama continued, “we’ve got enough of those politicians — we have a whole bunch in Washington D.C.”
William Amos on October 27, 2009 at 5:47 PM

Hmm, people who are slick as long as the teleprompter is working . . . say one thing, do another ahem, Gitmo, CIA prosecutions, rendition, ahem. . . politics of the Daley machine yesteryear. . .

Who does that remind you of?

smellthecoffee on October 28, 2009 at 12:07 AM

If 2 out of 3 win, it might deep six Democrat-run ObamaCare and . It will also bring many conservative candidates out of the woodwork to challenge blue dogs and many other Democrat Congressmen and Senators. Blue dogs may be challenged on the left by ticked off leftist Democrats in their own primaries. It could be a major game changer.

stefano1 on October 28, 2009 at 1:00 AM

Palin hits healthcare, cap & tax & card check on the donate link…and has this statement:

Governor Sarah Palin – “I don’t always see eye-to-eye with Republican political committees, so when I tell you that the Republican Governors Association has my complete support and confidence in its campaign efforts back East, know that I really mean it…. The RGA is helping lead the conservative comeback beginning this year, and its involvement in the East Coast races is significant. I hope you’ll support these efforts, which are vital to the cause for America’s freedom and prosperity.”

http://www.rga.org/initiatives/comeback-fund/

Did she just give the GOP the finger? If so, good for her!

njpat on October 28, 2009 at 8:46 AM

I meant RNC!

njpat on October 28, 2009 at 8:46 AM

Comment pages: 1 2