Too good to check: Hoffman leading in NY-23?

posted at 12:15 pm on October 26, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

So says the Club for Growth, which polled 300 likely voters in the district — and it’s almost outside the margin of error.  Douglas Hoffman, whose candidacy caught fire over the last couple of weeks, now has 31.3% of the vote, while the endorsed Republican trails by over 11 ponts:

A poll released today by the Club for Growth shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman surging into the lead in the special election in New York’s 23rd congressional district to replace John McHugh, the former congressman who recently became Secretary of the Army.

The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 5.66%. No information was provided about any of the candidates prior to the ballot question.

This is the third poll done for the Club for Growth in the NY-23 special election, and Doug Hoffman is the only candidate to show an increase in his support levels in each successive poll. The momentum in the race is clearly with Hoffman.

“Hoffman now has a wide lead among both Republicans and Independents, while Owens has a wide lead among Democrats. Dede Scozzafava’s support continues to collapse, making this essentially a two-candidate race between Hoffman and Owens in the final week,” concluded Basswood Research’s pollster Jon Lerner, who conducted the poll for the Club.

If the reaction of the GOP base to Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Hoffman didn’t get the attention of party leadership, then the results surely will.  Many conservatives wondered whether splitting the vote now would be worth it in order to position Hoffman against a weak Democratic re-election effort in 2010.  This survey shows that the vote split here may be benefiting Hoffman rather than damaging him.

Republicans usually win this district easily, so a 4-point lead over a Democrat is still worrisome — and this is just one poll.  Twenty-two percent undecided voters will make the difference.  However, with the large influx of money to Hoffman and the national attention he has received, that may be the best news for the Conservative Party in this race.


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You could be right.

I do see him as the point of the spear, though, pushing “Conservative” back into the political lexicon if he pulls off a win.

cs89 on October 26, 2009 at 12:54 PM

Very Interesting, I’ve never heard of the Conservative Party of New York. They don’t have there own candidates, but they endorse or don’t endorse GOP’ers.

This is sort happening in CA with the recall of Anthoy Adams (State Legislature) that supported CA tax increases. There seems to conservative movement is very areas at once.

Oil Can on October 26, 2009 at 1:07 PM

Can’t we get a real pollster for this race? The last two polls I’ve seen were this poll (by a group that endorsed Hoffman) and the Daily Kos poll (Which endorsed Dede and I’m sure has no problem with a democrat winning either). I know local elections generally are VERY difficult to poll and they have a track record of being off by quite a bit, but it would be nice if we could get a different poll.

clement on October 26, 2009 at 1:07 PM

Mark1971 on October 26, 2009 at 12:20 PM

Depends on the confidence level they set. They are polling likely voters in a single district. This is probably statistically accurate.

chemman on October 26, 2009 at 1:08 PM

The base needs to bypass the elites if we ever want to regain control of our party and avoid another McCain as the candidate…

JIMV on October 26, 2009 at 1:09 PM

For the good of the GOP, Scuzza should withdraw and support Hoffman.

rbj on October 26, 2009 at 12:29 PM

No. The best thing for the GOP is for Scozzafava to get beaten by the Conservative candidate through votes from actual voters. That’s the most effective message to party leadership. NY-23 has become the rallying point for the soul of the GOP. If real voters reject the party’s chosen candidate for an actual Conservative that will reverberate much more than if that candidate just quit.

JonPrichard on October 26, 2009 at 1:09 PM

How’s it feel to be all alone in THAT BIG TENT Mr. Gingrich?

Rovin on October 26, 2009 at 12:34 PM

With only Olympia Snowe to keep you company…..

alexraye on October 26, 2009 at 1:11 PM

Hoffman just has to promote the reality of Scozzafava. She’s a hard liberal running as a Republican and not much different than the Democrat running. This splits the left leaners and solidifies the right.
The left thought sponoring both horses in a two horse race would ensure a liberal win, never imagining a viable third to enter
If Hoffman wins, it will change political strategies of he future. No longer will purposeful spoilers be a win-win for a party.

LeeSeneca on October 26, 2009 at 1:11 PM

But ….I thoought Palin should leave the room. CK is part of what is wrong with the gop

unseen on October 26, 2009 at 1:12 PM

Will the National Republican Campaign Committee and the GOP learn a lesson if Hoffman wins?

Or will they consider it a fluke?

Something similar happened, as Mark Davis pointed out on the radio, to the NY Senate seat in ’68-’70. If the Conservative Party can have a NY Senate seat, they can certainly win a House seat. Check out the wiki.

hawksruleva on October 26, 2009 at 1:13 PM

In sports you win when your best players are your best players. Sarah is one of our best players. End of story.

technopeasant on October 26, 2009 at 12:58 PM

Politics is a different type of game. A Palin endorsement here in Northern Virginia would be the kiss of death while Newt’s would probably be helpful. What is important now, at least as far as I am concerned as a social and Christian conservative, is that the base of the party is not drowned out as it was in 2008. John McCain was the wrong man for the job and we all knew it from the time he stated at CPAC that he was a Reagan Republican (the day after securing the nomination).

highhopes on October 26, 2009 at 1:16 PM

How’s it feel to be all alone in THAT BIG TENT Mr. Gingrich?

Rovin on October 26, 2009 at 12:34 PM

Sadly, Newt has lots of company in that tent. There are tons of GOP operatives who happily back liberal RINOs. They think the best way to get a GOP majority is to slap GOP lables on whomever can win a seat. To them, a majority is the goal, so they can use the patronage powers given to the dominant party. So we have a GOP with defectors like Snowe and Collins, and outright turncoats like Spector.

hawksruleva on October 26, 2009 at 1:17 PM

Thanks for posting this thread. Reminds me to drop another little cash $$ gift to ol’ Doug’s campaign.

ted c on October 26, 2009 at 1:18 PM

Either play to win Newt, or get off the field.

This year, it’s bloodsport.

ted c on October 26, 2009 at 1:18 PM

Politics is a different type of game. A Palin endorsement here in Northern Virginia would be the kiss of death while Newt’s would probably be helpful.

highhopes on October 26, 2009 at 1:16 PM

She got a great turnout to events in NoVa when she was campaigning there. Don’t buy the stereotype. There are a lot of current and former military types, Daughters of the American Revolution, and old-school conservatives hiding in the bushes in Northern Va.

hawksruleva on October 26, 2009 at 1:20 PM

Exactly. Suddenly they find within themselves the animosity, ferocity and tenacity they could never find to fight leftists. They can “reach across the aisle” to the Left, but must annihilate Palin. Sickening, but all part of elitist power and turf-protection. Palin threatens their sinecures in ways the Left doesn’t; she would clean house. She is terrifying in every sense of the word to these monkey mandarins of the GOP.

rrpjr on October 26, 2009 at 12:43 PM

The simple explanation is that they are leftist’s at heart.

chemman on October 26, 2009 at 1:20 PM

Palin Power, Baby!

Right before the Palin endorsement, two polls showed Hoffman as a distant third.

And no, Ed, this is not a reliable Republican district. It voted for Obama in 2008 and Gore in 2000. It has also sent a Democrat to Congress for a majority of the time since 1930.

Norwegian on October 26, 2009 at 1:20 PM

How’s it feel to be all alone in THAT BIG TENT Mr. Gingrich?

Rovin on October 26, 2009 at 12:34 PM

Definitely out on there by himself when it comes to the national discussion.

highhopes on October 26, 2009 at 1:20 PM

Palin waited until she saw the whites of their eyes before she opened up a full broadside into the GOP DC elites. And now it is fire for effect.

unseen on October 26, 2009 at 1:23 PM

The Republican machine might want to think long and hard about running a campaign against Mr. Hoffman. But then, thinking doesn’t seem to be what they do a lot of anymore.

Cindy Munford on October 26, 2009 at 1:23 PM

Tea-Party Conservatism.

SarahCuda.

portlandon on October 26, 2009 at 12:18 PM</blockquote

>

That’s better…

PatriotRider on October 26, 2009 at 1:24 PM

Even with the smaller sample size and high MOE, I believe that the poll represents a trend away from Scuzzy. Later this week other polls will come out that will probably confirm this. This will be a “can you hear us now” election.

farright on October 26, 2009 at 1:24 PM

Once again I ask you…

Has anyone actually checked into Hoffman’s background? Do we know this guy isn’t bat-poop crazy? Yes, Scozzafava is a RINO in a district that shouldn’t be nominating RINOs. But I’m bothered by three things:

(i) there’s no evidence of Hoffman holding previous elected office. this means: (a) he could have something shady in his past and (b) we have no track record to show that he’s actually as conservative as he tells us he is.

(ii) Hoffman does not live in the Congressional District.

and

(iii) Every single time an Independent candidate has run for office that I can think of, the Independent steals votes from the Republican and results in the Democrat getting elected. That appears to be what’s happening here. The Democrat is only getting 30% of the vote, and yet is in the lead because Hoffman is pulling 25-30% of the vote. Presumably, every single Hoffman supporter is a disaffected Republican.

It seems to me that with everyone getting on the Hoffman bandwagon, we’re running a HIGH risk of getting a Democrat elected to Congress from NY-23. It’s worth the risk, in my opinion, but ONLY if Hoffman is a serious and genuine Conservative candidate. If he’s a giant flake, we’re going to make serious asses of ourselves.

So I ask again — has anyone actually vetted this Hoffman guy???

Outlander on October 26, 2009 at 1:24 PM

Local election. Local votes.

AnninCA on October 26, 2009 at 1:25 PM

She got a great turnout to events in NoVa when she was campaigning there. Don’t buy the stereotype. There are a lot of current and former military types, Daughters of the American Revolution, and old-school conservatives hiding in the bushes in Northern Va.

hawksruleva on October 26, 2009 at 1:20 PM

True enough, I fit that category too, but attendance at Palin rallies in NoVa was probably by people who would have voted for her anyway. There is nothing wrong with that but as far as throwing one’s weight behind a candidate, you need to attract swing voters and Palin is like garlic to a vampire when it comes to the Northern Virginia soccer mom.

highhopes on October 26, 2009 at 1:26 PM

It seems to me that with everyone getting on the Hoffman bandwagon, we’re running a HIGH risk of getting a Democrat elected to Congress from NY-23. It’s worth the risk, in my opinion, but ONLY if Hoffman is a serious and genuine Conservative candidate. If he’s a giant flake, we’re going to make serious asses of ourselves.

So I ask again — has anyone actually vetted this Hoffman guy???

Outlander on October 26, 2009 at 1:24 PM

Unless Hoffman’s an out-and-out Marxist, I don’t see how he could be to the left of Scozzafava.

ddrintn on October 26, 2009 at 1:27 PM

To them, a majority is the goal, so they can use the patronage powers given to the dominant party. So we have a GOP with defectors like Snowe and Collins, and outright turncoats like Spector.

hawksruleva on October 26, 2009 at 1:17 PM

Recent history indicates you are correct. Regaining the House under the present GOP leadership just means pork shoveling is done with a R beside your name. Re-election drives the machine.

a capella on October 26, 2009 at 1:27 PM

Hoffman wins in a landslide if he will just for pete’s sake use some Teeth Whitener.

Good grief, what a lousy pic.

klickink.wordpress.com on October 26, 2009 at 1:28 PM

Palin is like garlic to a vampire when it comes to the Northern Virginia soccer mom.

highhopes on October 26, 2009 at 1:26 PM

Which Palin will always be until she gets out and campaigns. In other words, the Tina Fey caricature is garlic.

ddrintn on October 26, 2009 at 1:28 PM

Where’s Newt?

Oh yea, he might be wiping egg off of his face.

PrincipledPilgrim on October 26, 2009 at 1:28 PM

Hoffman must be in the lead. He appears to be avoiding candidate debates.

YYZ on October 26, 2009 at 1:29 PM

Local election. Local votes.

AnninCA on October 26, 2009 at 1:25 PM

National attention and consequences.

The big thing to remember is that the “message” isn’t going to be what either side claims. If the weasel wins, it is not vindication of the Obama mandate. If the fat pink marshmallow wins, it does not mean the GOP is right in alienating the base in the hopes of picking up Democrats. If Hoffman wins, it is not of itself an indictment of the filthy lying coward’s administration.

Conversely, a loss isn’t just a loss. These off-year elections including the ones in VA and NJ are indicators for 2010 and the pundits and strategists would be stupid to ignore the details of these local elections.

highhopes on October 26, 2009 at 1:30 PM

sapwolf is on the RUSh show atm

unseen on October 26, 2009 at 1:30 PM

Hoffman must be in the lead. He appears to be avoiding candidate debates.
YYZ on October 26, 2009 at 1:29 PM

At least he’s not afraid of FoxNews.

Bishop on October 26, 2009 at 1:31 PM

Voting for the New York legislature is local. Voting for the US legislature means the candidate will be voting on issues that affect all of us.

MarkTheGreat on October 26, 2009 at 1:32 PM

Hoffman must be in the lead. He appears to be avoiding candidate debates.
YYZ on October 26, 2009 at 1:29 PM

He offered when he was trailing no one took hi up on it. Now that the tables are turned he should give them a bone?

Do unto others…..

unseen on October 26, 2009 at 1:34 PM

In the house, I think everyone is either D or R.

cs89 on October 26, 2009 at 12:46 PM

Bernie Sanders, caucuses with the Democrats, but was elected on the Socialist ticket.

MarkTheGreat on October 26, 2009 at 1:34 PM

Now him doug would tell his campaign manager to bugger off IRt to PAlin coming into the district to campaing for him He could win 60% in a 3 way race

unseen on October 26, 2009 at 1:35 PM

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDFjMjY0NGM0MGQzMjQ2Y2VlY2MwYWM3MGNmMjI5NDI=#

Dede Scozzafava is now, officially, an afterthought

Heh.

cs89 on October 26, 2009 at 12:41 PM

So the Democrat in the race is targeting Hoffman with his ads, and it’s reported that the Republican in the race is about to attack Hoffman.

Pretty ironic to see Democrats and Republicans team up against the conservative. Then again, that’s kind of what’s been happening with Sarah Palin for a while, now.

tom on October 26, 2009 at 1:38 PM

Do unto others…..

unseen on October 26, 2009 at 1:34 PM

…as you would have them do unto you.

I am all for hard and harsh campaigning, but don’t lose the idea of the value of debate completely. IF Hoffman’s for real he should be able to debate the issues. And if he does so well, he spreads the message and inspires other.

Liberty is dead – because both sides are idiotic.

klickink.wordpress.com on October 26, 2009 at 1:39 PM

Which Palin will always be until she gets out and campaigns.
ddrintn on October 26, 2009 at 1:28 PM

What she needs to do now is stake out positions on important issues, not necessarily campaign. She can also be going into these races and start creating the record of backing winning conservative candidates. Unlike Newt who is trying to do the same thing by going in and backing the McCain electability thing that is truly the wrong approach.

highhopes on October 26, 2009 at 1:39 PM

He offered when he was trailing no one took hi up on it. Now that the tables are turned he should give them a bone?

Do unto others…..

unseen on October 26, 2009 at 1:34 PM

Okay, so they’re all babies. How does that help actual voters?

YYZ on October 26, 2009 at 1:40 PM

This race is emblamatic of what the GOP can expect in 2010 and 2012 from conservatives like myself who are completely disenfranchised from the Republican Party and its neocon loyalists.

The conservative train has left the station and the party stalwarts who sold us out on issue after issue will be left standing there as the party either completely implodes or, more like, emerges as a true party of fiscal conservatism, individual freedoms and national sovereignty.

The movement is much larger than Sarah or Hoffman, although they presently serve as its harbingers.

molonlabe28 on October 26, 2009 at 1:41 PM

NY-23 has become the rallying point for the soul of the GOP. If real voters reject the party’s chosen candidate for an actual Conservative that will reverberate much more than if that candidate just quit.

Exactly, Jon. Apparently the RINO’s running the GOP are deaf and dumb to the Tea Partiers as well. And the more they throw away contributions in support of fellow RINO’s, the more they will lose future donations. IMO, it will take a combination of a Hoffman style win coupled with a drain on contributions to get the GOP to actually wake up. This is exactly what is needed. We are beyond tired of business as usual in Washington.

Thanks for running, Doug. And thanks to Sarah, Dick Armey, et. al., for understanding the stakes and making the difference.

Opinionator on October 26, 2009 at 1:42 PM

Hoffman has a RINO campaign manager who’s stopping Sarah from campaigning for him. Looks like the beltway clique decided that it should stop Sarah from campaigning and earning credit because that way she becomes more powerful. Eg: Ed Gillespie and Bob Mcdonnell– the candidate wanted her to campaign for him but the manager nixed it. Same thing happening here.

In fact, if Sarah descends in New York, Hoffman has this in bag. She got 20,000 people in Auburn, which is practically next door. It’s unimaginable the number of intrigues GOP is weaving against this woman. They’d never fight the Dems but go to such lengths to eat one of their own.

promachus on October 26, 2009 at 12:24 PM

Do you have a link or anything?

Not that I don’t believe you, this sounds about right, just wondering.

BTW, Sarah will be in Milwaukee on November 6 at a Right To Life event, so…..

gary4205 on October 26, 2009 at 1:44 PM

Sadly, Newt has lots of company in that tent. There are tons of GOP operatives who happily back liberal RINOs. They think the best way to get a GOP majority is to slap GOP lables on whomever can win a seat. To them, a majority is the goal, so they can use the patronage powers given to the dominant party. So we have a GOP with defectors like Snowe and Collins, and outright turncoats like Spector.

hawksruleva on October 26, 2009 at 1:17 PM

What the GOP needs to do is select candidates appropriate to each district. A solid conservative like Hoffman can WIN in NY-23, so the GOP shouldn’t run a wimpy RINO like Scozzofava there, since she could defect on crucial votes if the GOP re-takes the House.

However, in “swing” districts, a more “moderate” or “centrist” GOP candidate may be a better bet. In such districts, we should run FISCAL conservatives (most Americans agree that taxes and deficits should not be raised), who can soft-pedal lightning-rod social issues during their campaigns. Then, if Republicans get the House majority, they can control tax legislation, and let the social issues be debated in the Senate, since most such issues are decided by the Supreme Court, and only the Senate and the President have any control over its composition.

Steve Z on October 26, 2009 at 1:51 PM

Buh bye Dede. Hope you and Newtie enjoy each other’s company.

Mr. Grump on October 26, 2009 at 1:52 PM

MarkTheGreat on October 26, 2009 at 1:34 PM

Sanders was in the House for years, but is now the junior Senator from Vermont.

I may be missing somebody who ran on another party, though.

cs89 on October 26, 2009 at 2:01 PM

IMO, it will take a combination of a Hoffman style win coupled with a drain on contributions to get the GOP to actually wake up. This is exactly what is needed. We are beyond tired of business as usual in Washington.

Opinionator on October 26, 2009 at 1:42 PM

Sadly, I agree that Hoffman will need to WIN this race for the GOP to even consider that conservatives want the party back. Assuming that the majority of the Dem voters will vote for the (D) candidate and Scuzzy and Hoffman are splitting Repubs and some Independents, just by considering the (R) and (C) have 50% of the vote in NY-23 compared to 27% for the (D), they should realize that putting a strict conservative in there would have easily captured the seat for the Republicans.

I’m not in the district BUT I’d rather see NY-23 lost to a real Democrat than a DIABLO – and have the chance to boot the Dem out in an election a year from now.

SouperConservative on October 26, 2009 at 2:02 PM

Many conservatives wondered whether splitting the vote now would be worth it in order to position Hoffman against a weak Democratic re-election effort in 2010. This survey shows that the vote split here may be benefiting Hoffman rather than damaging him.

Well I had been saying all along, since finding out about this sorry state-of-affairs, if you’re going to play with fire and seek to split the Republican vote, this was the situation to do it with.

Chalk it up to coincidence, but Newt picked the worst possible time since the 1994 Republican ascendancy to appeal to party loyalty. There is no party loyalty within the Republican party anymore, and it will be interesting to see if the Conservative Party can go anywhere from here.

gryphon202 on October 26, 2009 at 2:06 PM

Sadly, Newt has lots of company in that tent. There are tons of GOP operatives who happily back liberal RINOs.

hawksruleva

There seems to be lots of folks GOP/Republicans/Conservatives should be against in priority – cannibalizing among ourselves seems petty – especially when our party is in the minority! I mean do either Dede Scozzafava Doug Hoffman (or Newt Gingrich’s opinion on the matter) rise anywhere near the importance of Christie or McDonnell (Republican governor candidates) where our attention should be focused? What if we go through this in 2010 and 2012 (squabbling among ourselves on party purity and plank adhearence) with every nominee and excluding folks that don’t measure up?

IntheNet on October 26, 2009 at 2:07 PM

That Daily Kos poll was a fair poll but had Rep. sampling at 43% and Dem at 32%. The problem is that during any special election in NY, the Dems get 45% turnout among voters as compared to the regular elections, to where Reps. get 75% turnout as compared to regular.

So in the Kos poll we are largely undersampled taking that info into account. And given the environment we are in with spending and the economy I see the turnout to be a lot better.

TendStl on October 26, 2009 at 2:09 PM

How’s it feel to be all alone in THAT BIG TENT Mr. Gingrich?

Rovin on October 26, 2009 at 12:34 PM
With only Olympia Snowe to keep you company…..

alexraye on October 26, 2009 at 1:11 PM

What a lovely couple – NOT

bill30097 on October 26, 2009 at 2:12 PM

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it is now over. Dede will win this race because Susan Collins endorsed her. (do I really have to add a sarc tag?)

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2009/10/palin_vs_collins.html

yogi41 on October 26, 2009 at 2:14 PM

If people are worried about splitting the vote, why not worry about splitting the vote between two hard core liberals, and a conservative?

MarkTheGreat on October 26, 2009 at 2:17 PM

His op-ed might sway a lot of people. It was simple, to the point and full of the conservative principles and ideals that we have been looking for for a long long long time.

gophergirl on October 26, 2009 at 2:19 PM

What we need now is for Ralph Nader to show up with some kind of far-lefty candidate to start harassing whats-his-name the Democrat.

joe_doufu on October 26, 2009 at 2:20 PM

Newt linked with Susan Collins and against Sarah Palin? Michelle is right Newt. When 2011 rolls around, don’t even bother.

Sultry Beauty on October 26, 2009 at 2:20 PM

yogi41 on October 26, 2009 at 2:14 PM

Sarah Palin, Club for Growth, Fred Thompson, etc. on one side.

Newt Gingrich, Obama, Collins, etc. on the other.

“Let’s get ready to RUUUUMMMMBLE!”

Haha.

cs89 on October 26, 2009 at 2:29 PM

(i) there’s no evidence of Hoffman holding previous elected office. this means: (a) he could have something shady in his past

This seems to me to a curious modality of thinking. What becomes ever more apparent with each passing day is, (A) That in having held public office before, it virtually assures a shady past. And, (B) With gerry-mandered perpetual incumbency, also assures a shady present.

Jussayin.

Archimedes on October 26, 2009 at 2:30 PM

So the Democrat in the race is targeting Hoffman with his ads, and it’s reported that the Republican in the race is about to attack Hoffman.

Pretty ironic to see Democrats and Republicans team up against the conservative. Then again, that’s kind of what’s been happening with Sarah Palin America for a while, now.

tom on October 26, 2009 at 1:38 PM

FIFY

Archimedes on October 26, 2009 at 2:33 PM

I am betting my nest egg that there will be a major crack in the libtard party. Once Hoffman is in congress- the rest of the dominoes will start falling like the leaves on an acorn tree.
Hold the line Patriots. Our determination is Success!!

hawkman on October 26, 2009 at 2:36 PM

Donate

Asher on October 26, 2009 at 2:36 PM

Someone at Free Republic posted on the Susan Collins -v- Palin thread that Jeri Thompson announced on her (and Fred’s) radio show that Hoffman will unveil a huge announcement tonight. Wonder what it could be?

yogi41 on October 26, 2009 at 2:41 PM

Once again I ask you…

Has anyone actually checked into Hoffman’s background? Do we know this guy isn’t bat-poop crazy? Yes, Scozzafava is a RINO in a district that shouldn’t be nominating RINOs. But I’m bothered by three things:

(i) there’s no evidence of Hoffman holding previous elected office. this means: (a) he could have something shady in his past and (b) we have no track record to show that he’s actually as conservative as he tells us he is.

(ii) Hoffman does not live in the Congressional District.

and

(iii) Every single time an Independent candidate has run for office that I can think of, the Independent steals votes from the Republican and results in the Democrat getting elected. That appears to be what’s happening here. The Democrat is only getting 30% of the vote, and yet is in the lead because Hoffman is pulling 25-30% of the vote. Presumably, every single Hoffman supporter is a disaffected Republican.

It seems to me that with everyone getting on the Hoffman bandwagon, we’re running a HIGH risk of getting a Democrat elected to Congress from NY-23. It’s worth the risk, in my opinion, but ONLY if Hoffman is a serious and genuine Conservative candidate. If he’s a giant flake, we’re going to make serious asses of ourselves.

So I ask again — has anyone actually vetted this Hoffman guy???

Outlander on October 26, 2009 at 1:24 PM

re: #2 – he did live in the district in 1999 and he has not moved since. (He was redistricted out of the district, only slightly 10mi I think). His businesses are very much deeply inside the district, over a large portion of the district.

#3 both Bernie Sanders and Lieberman both won on the independent ticket

While I suppose there is a chance that he could not be that conservative, I’d say it is pretty low and if we are only going to be electing people with an electoral history we are going to be awfully screwed in 30-40 years when all the incumbents die off.

clement on October 26, 2009 at 2:47 PM

bleh, I screwed up the above post…meant to have a quote block and to make what I was replying to more terse sorry!

clement on October 26, 2009 at 2:48 PM

I want Hoffman to win just for so Palin can say FU to the Republican leaders that have done as much to try to damage her as the left.

ramrants on October 26, 2009 at 2:52 PM

Dede’s union boss husband approached the Dems to see if she could get on their ticket if the Repubs rejected her?
http://spectator.org/archives/2009/10/26/hiding-under-the-ceiling

The locals are whacking Newt
http://www.gouverneurtimes.com/

njpat on October 26, 2009 at 2:55 PM

I hope Hoffman wins
Failing that, I’m for Owens,
So Dede loses…

Haiku Guy on October 26, 2009 at 2:57 PM

However, in “swing” districts, a more “moderate” or “centrist” GOP candidate may be a better bet. In such districts, we should run FISCAL conservatives (most Americans agree that taxes and deficits should not be raised), who can soft-pedal lightning-rod social issues during their campaigns. Then, if Republicans get the House majority, they can control tax legislation, and let the social issues be debated in the Senate, since most such issues are decided by the Supreme Court, and only the Senate and the President have any control over its composition.
Steve Z on October 26, 2009 at 1:51 PM

And if the Senate refused? The Republican Party demands loyalty to incumbents, period. There’s no question of challenging a Republican incumbent for breaking their word, ever. Your moderate suggestion is practically an agreement that the social conservatives can be ignored on the campaign trail and in session.

Chris_Balsz on October 26, 2009 at 3:15 PM

FYI, Hannity, who is a good buddy of Newt, is sayin how great it is that Sarah endorsed Hoffman. He wasn’t parsing his words either. WOW, Hannity really is a conservative and not a GOP ho.

Geochelone on October 26, 2009 at 3:16 PM

It’s time for a new party anyhow. The GOP headquarters & leaders are infested with liberal cock roaches. It’s just more go along to get along politics.

Jeff from WI on October 26, 2009 at 3:18 PM

The Republican machine might want to think long and hard about running a campaign against Mr. Hoffman. But then, thinking doesn’t seem to be what they do a lot of anymore.

Cindy Munford on October 26, 2009 at 1:23 PM

LOL. The Republican machine that you speak of is missing a few gears.

Geochelone on October 26, 2009 at 3:21 PM

What the GOP needs to do is select candidates appropriate to each district. A solid conservative like Hoffman can WIN in NY-23, so the GOP shouldn’t run a wimpy RINO like Scozzofava there, since she could defect on crucial votes if the GOP re-takes the House.
Steve Z on October 26, 2009 at 1:51 PM

I couldn’t agree with you more. Scozzafava is totally unnecessary in NY-23. Had the Republicans nominated a solid conservative or even a moderate-conservative, no problem. But they nominated a RINO and are now getting what they deserve.

Like you say, RINOs like Collins and Snowe don’t offend me in the slightest, and real conservatives should support them. Why? Because Maine is a very liberal state, and therefore, a “real” Republican cannot win there. Collins & Snowe vote more conservatively than any Democrat elected from that state would do. We conservatives targeted Lincoln Chafee for elimination in RI in 2006 by giving him a strong conservative primary challenger. The result was Chafee’s defeat and the election of a MUCH more liberal Democrat.

However, RINOs like Lindsay Graham and (to a lesser extent) John McCain should GO. Those guys are elected from states that can elect real Conservatives — no excuses for RINOs in red states!

Outlander on October 26, 2009 at 3:30 PM

Hate to throw cold water on this, but a very-quick review of late polling by Basswood Research indicates they tend to overstate the “conservative” candidate’s support by 4-5 percentage points.

However, given there is a 3-way race here, that still leaves open the question of whether the absolute worst (at least for the RNC/NRCC) outcome of Hoffman winning or the 2nd-prefered (for both halves of the bipartisan Party-In-Government) alternative of Owens winning. It is clear that the “Republican” Party is in the Whig seat.

steveegg on October 26, 2009 at 3:36 PM

FYI, Hannity, who is a good buddy of Newt, is sayin how great it is that Sarah endorsed Hoffman. He wasn’t parsing his words either. WOW, Hannity really is a conservative and not a GOP ho.

Geochelone on October 26, 2009 at 3:16 PM

Hannity has said many times that he is not a registered Rupublican.

Susanboo on October 26, 2009 at 3:37 PM

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/64787-pawlenty-bucks-gop-endorses-hoffman#

Looks like Hoffman has Paw-lenty of support now.

(Had to).

cs89 on October 26, 2009 at 3:40 PM

WOW, Hannity really is a conservative and not a GOP ho.

Geochelone on October 26, 2009 at 3:16 PM

Anyone who listens to Hannity knows that to be the case. He states it explicitely almost every day. Still people call in and accuse him of carrying water for the Republicans. I figure they must be seminar callers who never listen.

Christian Conservative on October 26, 2009 at 3:44 PM

Looks like Hoffman has Paw-lenty of support now.
(Had to).

cs89 on October 26, 2009 at 3:40 PM

T-Paw finelay comin’ to da pawty?

‘Bout time.

TXUS on October 26, 2009 at 3:48 PM

There seems to be lots of folks GOP/Republicans/Conservatives should be against in priority – cannibalizing among ourselves seems petty – especially when our party is in the minority! I mean do either Dede Scozzafava Doug Hoffman (or Newt Gingrich’s opinion on the matter) rise anywhere near the importance of Christie or McDonnell (Republican governor candidates) where our attention should be focused? What if we go through this in 2010 and 2012 (squabbling among ourselves on party purity and plank adhearence) with every nominee and excluding folks that don’t measure up?

IntheNet on October 26, 2009 at 2:07 PM

Sorry, but you don’t get it. It’s about principle over party. Right now, it’s the other way around.

The very REASON the GOP is in the minority is because they have stopped being conservatives, stopped actually standing for something. It’s all about maneuvering and tactics with them. They are worse than the frigging dem/communists! At least the communists stand for something!

We have to fight this fight at every level, from the local dog catcher to the presidency. We have to fight it with every ounce of our souls.

Will we lose some battles? Well, yes, of course, but that doesn’t mean we give up.

Look, the communists, socialists, Marxists, what ever you want to call them, have been fighting for almost a century to get to where they are now. They never give up. They always keep coming. They have a goal and a plan.

We gotta do the same damned thing!

This isn’t about 2010 or even 2012. This Conservative movement has to become a PERMANENT REVOLUTION. We must become something that never stops advancing, ever. We must fight with every ounce of our soul until we have a solid, permanent CONSERVATIVE government. One that reflects the founder’s intentions.

THEN, we must remain vigilant to make sure we retain it.

Anything less than this is a wasted effort.

gary4205 on October 26, 2009 at 3:48 PM

Speaking of Hannity, Hoffman will be on his radio show this afternoon.

Vntnrse on October 26, 2009 at 3:52 PM

gary4205 on October 26, 2009 at 3:48 PM

Well said!

TXUS on October 26, 2009 at 3:58 PM

Hopefully, it’s not just the Demlibcommietards quaking, but also the RINOs.

Sweep ‘em out…everywhere. Back to real (non-progressive pinko) Democrats and (Democrat-lite) Republicans before it’s too late.

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 26, 2009 at 4:07 PM

I am from the Indianapolis area and can only hope a candidate such as Doug Hoffman will come our way.

I am certain Doug will win, but will he then run in 2010 as a Republican? Where can one get more information on the Conservative Party?

metroryder on October 26, 2009 at 4:37 PM

I am certain Doug will win, but will he then run in 2010 as a Republican? Where can one get more information on the Conservative Party?

metroryder on October 26, 2009 at 4:37 PM

That’s more likely than Scozzafava running as a Republican in 2010.

steveegg on October 26, 2009 at 5:05 PM

Internals from the CFG poll:

AS YOU MIGHT KNOW, ON NOVEMBER 3RD THERE WILL BE LOCAL ELECTIONS AND A SPECIAL ELECTION FOR CONGRESS IN YOUR AREA TO FILL THE SEAT BEING VACATED BY CONGRESSMAN JOHN MCHUGH. USUALLY, VERY FEW PEOPLE VOTE IN SPECIAL ELECTIONS LIKE THESE.

HOW LIKELY ARE YOU TO VOTE IN THE
UPCOMING LOCAL ELECTIONS AND THE SPECIAL ELECTION FOR CONGRESS? WOULD YOU SAY YOU ARE VERY LIKELY TO VOTE, SOMEWHAT LIKELY TO VOTE, OR NOT LIKELY TO VOTE? IF YOU ARE NOT REGISTERED TO VOTE IN NEW YORK, JUST SAY SO.

300 100.0 VERY LIKELY

IF YOU HAD TO LABEL YOURSELF, WOULD YOU SAY YOU ARE A LIBERAL, A MODERATE, OR A CONSERVATIVE IN YOUR POLITICAL BELIEFS?

55 18.3 LIBERAL
92 30.7 MODERATE
123 41.0 CONSERAVTIVE
61 20.3 Smwht Conservative
62 20.7 Very Conservative
30 10.0 DK/REFUSED

WITH WHICH POLITICAL PARTY ARE YOU REGISTERED?

108 36.0 DEMOCRAT
145 48.3 REPUBLICAN
40 13.3 INDEPENDENT/NO PARTY
2 0.7 CONSERVATIVE
1 0.3 OTHER
4 1.3 REFUSED

WHAT IS THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE FACING THE UNITED STATES TODAY THAT YOU WOULD MOST LIKE TO SEE YOUR MEMBER OF CONGRESS MAKE HIS OR HER TOP PRIORITY?

72 24.0 HEALTH CARE/REFORM
67 22.3 ECONOMY
32 10.7 UNEMPLOYMENT/JOBS
26 8.7 WAR/IRAQ/AFGHAN
13 4.3 REDUCE TAXES
9 3.0 HEALTH INS./AFFORD
7 2.3 SOCIAL SECURITY/SAVE
7 2.3 NATIONAL DEBT
5 1.7 GOV’T OVER-SPENDING
5 1.7 CARE USA FIRST
4 1.3 WAGES/HIGHER

PLEASE TELL ME WHETHER YOU HAVE A FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE OPINION OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING. IF YOU HAVE NO OPINION OR HAVE NEVER HEARD OF THE PERSON, JUST SAY SO.

“BILL OWENS”
72 24.0 FAVORABLE
50 16.7 UNFAVORABLE
149 49.7 NO OPINION
29 9.7 NEVER HEARD OF

PLEASE TELL ME WHETHER YOU HAVE A FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE OPINION OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING. IF YOU HAVE NO OPINION OR HAVE NEVER HEARD OF THE PERSON, JUST SAY SO.

“DEDE SCOZZAFAVA”
72 24.0 FAVORABLE
85 28.3 UNFAVORABLE
125 41.7 NO OPINION
18 6.0 NEVER HEARD OF

PLEASE TELL ME WHETHER YOU HAVE A FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE OPINION OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING. IF YOU HAVE NO OPINION OR HAVE NEVER HEARD OF THE PERSON, JUST SAY SO.

“DOUG HOFFMAN”
91 30.3 FAVORABLE
41 13.7 UNFAVORABLE
143 47.7 NO OPINION
25 8.3 NEVER HEARD OF

IF THE SPECIAL ELECTION FOR U.S. CONGRESS WAS HELD TODAY, AND THE CANDIDATES WERE BILL OWENS, THE DEMOCRAT, DEDE SCOZZAFAVA, THE REPUBLICAN, AND DOUG HOFFMAN, THE PARTY CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATE, FOR WHOM WOULD YOU VOTE?

81 27.0 COMBO OWENS
71 23.7 Vote Owens
10 3.3 Lean Owens
59 19.7 COMBO SCOZZAFAVA
54 18.0 Vote Scozzafava
5 1.7 Lean Scozzafava
94 31.3 COMBO HOFFMAN
85 28.3 Vote Hoffman
9 3.0 Lean Hoffman
66 22.0 FIRM UNDECIDED

BETWEEN BILL OWENS, THE DEMOCRAT, DEDE SCOZZAFAVA, THE REPUBLICAN, AND DOUG HOFFMAN, THE CONSERVATIVE, WHO WOULD BE YOUR SECOND CHOICE CANDIDATE?

31 10.3 OWENS
41 13.7 SCOZZAFAVA
39 13.0 HOFFMAN
189 63.0 UNDECIDED

BETWEEN BILL OWENS, DEDE SCOZZAFAVA, AND DOUG HOFFMAN, WHO WOULD YOU SAY WOULD DO THE BEST JOB IN THE FOLLOWING AREA?
“CREATING JOBS”


80 26.7 OWENS

42 14.0 SCOZZAFAVA
71 23.7 HOFFMAN
17 5.7 NONE
4 1.3 ALL
86 28.7 DK/REFUSED

BETWEEN BILL OWENS, DEDE SCOZZAFAVA, AND DOUG HOFFMAN, WHO WOULD YOU SAY WOULD DO THE BEST JOB IN THE FOLLOWING AREA?
“REDUCING WASHINGTON SPENDING”

53 17.7 OWENS
40 13.3 SCOZZAFAVA
91 30.3 HOFFMAN
25 8.3 NONE
9 3.0 ALL
82 27.3 DK/REFUSED

WHAT IS YOUR AGE?
10 3.3 18 – 25
31 10.3 26 – 40
60 20.0 41 – 54
91 30.3 55 – 64
104 34.7 65 OR OLDER
4 1.3 REFUSED

GENDER:
141 47.0 MALE
159 53.0 FEMALE

AREA:
73 24.3 BURLINGTON M.M.
39 13.0 Clinton County
14 4.7 Essex County
20 6.7 Franklin County
16 5.3 ALBANY M.M.
12 4.0 Fulton County
4 1.3 Hamilton County
107 35.7 WATERTOWN M.M.
46 15.3 Jefferson County
13 4.3 Lewis County
48 16.0 St Lawrence County
104 34.7 SYRACUSE M.M.
34 11.3 Madison County
12 4.0 Oneida County
58 19.3 Oswego County

http://www.clubforgrowth.org/media/uploads/NY-23-top-lines.pdf

gary4205 on October 26, 2009 at 5:12 PM

WITH WHICH POLITICAL PARTY ARE YOU REGISTERED?

108 36.0 DEMOCRAT
145 48.3 REPUBLICAN
40 13.3 INDEPENDENT/NO PARTY
2 0.7 CONSERVATIVE
1 0.3 OTHER
4 1.3 REFUSED

–Gary (or anyone who lives in the area), does a 48% GOP/36% Dem sample make sense? It seems to me that it’s too high for the GOP.

Jimbo3 on October 26, 2009 at 5:29 PM

As always, turnout is the key and I think Hoffman has the advantage in the “motivated voters” category.

TBinSTL on October 26, 2009 at 5:34 PM

I think this is an optimistic poll. Because it’s just NY-23 Congressional – the polling resolution is pretty low. This give CFG a chance to “push” the voters by releasing a poll like this. It will probably be days before this can be refuted. A dastardly tactic – yet exactly what I’d expect from grass roots radicals like CFG – I like them! They know what it’s going to take to win!

HondaV65 on October 26, 2009 at 5:36 PM

Hoffman got off Hanity’s radio show a littlew while ago and Beck is about to talk to him on television.

Vntnrse on October 26, 2009 at 5:45 PM

–Gary (or anyone who lives in the area), does a 48% GOP/36% Dem sample make sense? It seems to me that it’s too high for the GOP.

Jimbo3 on October 26, 2009 at 5:29 PM

Current voter rolls in the district show 43/31 Republican/Dem split. Which would put both parties a little high by an equal 5%. When you figure that people registered with a party are more likely to vote than those not it is not totally out of reason.

clement on October 26, 2009 at 6:33 PM

Scozzafava will still be a NY State Assemblywoman if she loses, and presumably with the Republican Party.

If she loses, which appears now she will, we on the Right do not want to go overboard with our denunciations of her, and give her no choice but to switch parties to the Democrats. That would be a post-election embarrassment for the Republican Party.

So, please, you all, criticize her, but save the harshness for the Democrats.

ericdondero on October 26, 2009 at 7:04 PM

For the good of the GOP, Scuzza should withdraw and support Hoffman.

rbj on October 26, 2009 at 12:29 PM

No. The best thing for the GOP is for Scozzafava to get beaten by the Conservative candidate through votes from actual voters. That’s the most effective message to party leadership. NY-23 has become the rallying point for the soul of the GOP. If real voters reject the party’s chosen candidate for an actual Conservative that will reverberate much more than if that candidate just quit.

JonPrichard on October 26, 2009 at 1:09 PM

^5

AH_C on October 26, 2009 at 7:25 PM

So we have a GOP with defectors defects like Snowe and Collins, and outright turncoats like Spector.

hawksruleva on October 26, 2009 at 1:17 PM

FIFY

AH_C on October 26, 2009 at 7:30 PM

So I ask again — has anyone actually vetted this Hoffman guy???

Outlander on October 26, 2009 at 1:24 PM

And so we answered you yesterday in the other thread. Essentially you’re nit-picking an unknown claiming to be conservative, while the other two are committed to anti-conservative causes.

This is a no-brainer and further validated by the fact that Hoffman is a small business owner. My vote goes to the business owner over a professional politician or community organizer.

AH_C on October 26, 2009 at 7:36 PM

Hoffman wins in a landslide if he will just for pete’s sake use some Teeth Whitener.

Good grief, what a lousy pic.

klickink.wordpress.com on October 26, 2009 at 1:28 PM

Beck had the perfect analogy for that last week, using two gleaming skyscrapers vs a building that looked like it was covered in second-run windows. Conservatives are looking or substance, not style, nor glamour.

Does it help to have style & glam a la Sarah? No. If it did, then explain Scuzzi, sKerry, dishWaters, Paleloser, Dingy Harry etc, etc. Style and glam only helps to fundamental flaws, i.e. Obambi, Crispy, yes, even Newtie.

Does it hurt to be rough & unpolished? No. Refer to the above short list.

But if ya wanna talk about looks, Hoffman don’t look bad next to those two

AH_C on October 26, 2009 at 7:51 PM

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