Too good to check: Hoffman leading in NY-23?

posted at 12:15 pm on October 26, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

So says the Club for Growth, which polled 300 likely voters in the district — and it’s almost outside the margin of error.  Douglas Hoffman, whose candidacy caught fire over the last couple of weeks, now has 31.3% of the vote, while the endorsed Republican trails by over 11 ponts:

A poll released today by the Club for Growth shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman surging into the lead in the special election in New York’s 23rd congressional district to replace John McHugh, the former congressman who recently became Secretary of the Army.

The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 5.66%. No information was provided about any of the candidates prior to the ballot question.

This is the third poll done for the Club for Growth in the NY-23 special election, and Doug Hoffman is the only candidate to show an increase in his support levels in each successive poll. The momentum in the race is clearly with Hoffman.

“Hoffman now has a wide lead among both Republicans and Independents, while Owens has a wide lead among Democrats. Dede Scozzafava’s support continues to collapse, making this essentially a two-candidate race between Hoffman and Owens in the final week,” concluded Basswood Research’s pollster Jon Lerner, who conducted the poll for the Club.

If the reaction of the GOP base to Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Hoffman didn’t get the attention of party leadership, then the results surely will.  Many conservatives wondered whether splitting the vote now would be worth it in order to position Hoffman against a weak Democratic re-election effort in 2010.  This survey shows that the vote split here may be benefiting Hoffman rather than damaging him.

Republicans usually win this district easily, so a 4-point lead over a Democrat is still worrisome — and this is just one poll.  Twenty-two percent undecided voters will make the difference.  However, with the large influx of money to Hoffman and the national attention he has received, that may be the best news for the Conservative Party in this race.


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Conservatism.

SarahCuda.

portlandon on October 26, 2009 at 12:18 PM

How long until lefties start throwing their support behind Scozzafava? Because if Owens isn’t going to win, Scozzafava is the next best (better?) thing.

Abby Adams on October 26, 2009 at 12:19 PM

Who did the polling for them?

ninjapirate on October 26, 2009 at 12:19 PM

Nothing that a little vote-rigging won’t fix…

Remember: this is New York. Democrat land. They will find a way.

newton on October 26, 2009 at 12:19 PM

Said it before, I’ll say it again – Scozzafava is the spoiler, not Hoffman.

Eight days, it’s a sprint to the finish! The DCCC is now attacking Hoffman (ZOMG HE HAS A CAR COLLECTION!), so they’re concerned about him now. If you aren’t taking flak you aren’t over the target.

Red Cloud on October 26, 2009 at 12:19 PM

Newt should concede.

joe_doufu on October 26, 2009 at 12:19 PM

nm… Basswood Research’s pollster Jon Lerner

ninjapirate on October 26, 2009 at 12:19 PM

Sarah opened the door. But Hoffman has to walk through.

We’ll see.

AnninCA on October 26, 2009 at 12:19 PM

and it’s almost outside the margin of error.

To be outside the margin of error, he’d have to be leading by 11.32% (5.66 * 2)

MarkTheGreat on October 26, 2009 at 12:20 PM

Is a sample of 300 a good enough predictor in a congressional district?

Mark1971 on October 26, 2009 at 12:20 PM

Cudalicious

alexraye on October 26, 2009 at 12:20 PM

Either way Scozzafava’s toast. She’s bleeding votes from both sides and won’t be able to keep up on fundraising, no matter how much money the national GOP throws down the drain.

BadgerHawk on October 26, 2009 at 12:20 PM

Newt should concede.

joe_doufu on October 26, 2009 at 12:19 PM

He’s terribly gracious. He will be better than McCain, I predict, if Hoffman pulls out a win.

AnninCA on October 26, 2009 at 12:20 PM

Not optimistic about this one, but heads will explode if Hoffman beats Scafozza-fava. Would love seeing RINO heads explode even more because it may herald the retaking of the party by its core – CONSERVATIVES.

Oh, please let it happen!

J.J. Sefton on October 26, 2009 at 12:21 PM

Buchanan blog: Lindsey Graham attempting to destroy Ron Paul’s audit the Fed bill.

“If you want to stop the war machine, you have to stop the money machine”
-Tom Woods

Spathi on October 26, 2009 at 12:21 PM

Who conducted the poll. What is the history of the Clubs polls? How accurate have they been in the past?

If the poll is legit, this is good news. Also, since the Dems are now attacking Hoffman, it means their internal polling might be giving them similar results – Hoffman is peeling away votes instead of sending votes to the Dem.

We’ll see. Pray for Hoffman.

True_King on October 26, 2009 at 12:23 PM

This late in the race, the undecided vote usually isn’t as important as you would think. Special elections typically have lower turnout than general elections, and an undecided voter will usually just drop out of a special election rather than make a last minute decision.

If the undecideds drop out, then 31% support in this poll will turn into almost 40% in the election, which is probably enough to win a 3 way battle.

WWS on October 26, 2009 at 12:23 PM

As Mark Davis just said; his eyes are open and most real conservatives would rather a true dim with a (D) behind his name get this seat before ScuzzySanger.

OmahaConservative on October 26, 2009 at 12:24 PM

Pleased to hear it, but 300 people is quite a small sample size.

Glenn Jericho on October 26, 2009 at 12:24 PM

Scozzafava seen shopping for long auburn wig and largish dark-rimmed glasses.

profitsbeard on October 26, 2009 at 12:24 PM

There is hope, for a change…

JohnBG on October 26, 2009 at 12:24 PM

Hoffman has a RINO campaign manager who’s stopping Sarah from campaigning for him. Looks like the beltway clique decided that it should stop Sarah from campaigning and earning credit because that way she becomes more powerful. Eg: Ed Gillespie and Bob Mcdonnell– the candidate wanted her to campaign for him but the manager nixed it. Same thing happening here.

In fact, if Sarah descends in New York, Hoffman has this in bag. She got 20,000 people in Auburn, which is practically next door. It’s unimaginable the number of intrigues GOP is weaving against this woman. They’d never fight the Dems but go to such lengths to eat one of their own.

promachus on October 26, 2009 at 12:24 PM

The only role the RNC needs to play in this is to get Scuzzy to withdraw, she’s an embarrassment.

NoDonkey on October 26, 2009 at 12:25 PM

OT: Does AllahPundit still write for Hot Air?

j_galt on October 26, 2009 at 12:25 PM

put your money where your mouth is and anti up to Hoffman….again.

jukin on October 26, 2009 at 12:25 PM

It’s a NY issue, in my opinion. I think the right is now doing what damaged Alaska so badly. This is not a national election, people.

It’s local.

AnninCA on October 26, 2009 at 12:25 PM

OT: Does AllahPundit still write for Hot Air?

j_galt on October 26, 2009 at 12:25 PM

I saw a post where he took a couple of days off.

Surely that’s allowed! LOL*

AnninCA on October 26, 2009 at 12:26 PM

We are 40 PERCENT.

John the Libertarian on October 26, 2009 at 12:26 PM

jukin on October 26, 2009 at 12:25 PM

Ante-ing up today.

OmahaConservative on October 26, 2009 at 12:26 PM

I’m a Dallas listener and I’m happy with Mark Davis that he read his e-mails. On Friday he was down right Newt nasty.

Marcus on October 26, 2009 at 12:27 PM

It’s local.

AnninCA on October 26, 2009 at 12:25 PM

“All politics is local.” Tip O’Neill

Doorgunner on October 26, 2009 at 12:27 PM

Pleased to hear it, but 300 people is quite a small sample size.

Glenn Jericho on October 26, 2009 at 12:24 PM

Not really. Rasmussen does his NATIONAL survey with only 1,500 people. 300 people in a congressional district is a large sample.

I’m sure the national “leaders” are wondering what they’re doing wrong. Can’t wait to see the media spin on this!

SouthernGent on October 26, 2009 at 12:27 PM

I am Doug Hoffman.

LibTired on October 26, 2009 at 12:27 PM

OmahaConservative on October 26, 2009 at 12:24 PM

Mark is walking it back, isn’t he? BTW, what did you think of the Big Red-ISU game? About time my alma mater won one in Lincoln, but it was ugly.

a capella on October 26, 2009 at 12:27 PM

I saw a post where he took a couple of days off.

AnninCA on October 26, 2009 at 12:26 PM

I guess that’s why we don’t have the 3 anti-Palin posts/day.

Darksean on October 26, 2009 at 12:27 PM

Is a sample of 300 a good enough predictor in a congressional district?

Mark1971 on October 26, 2009 at 12:20 PM

was thinking the same thing…

cmsinaz on October 26, 2009 at 12:28 PM

Is a sample of 300 a good enough predictor in a congressional district?Mark1971 on October 26, 2009 at 12:20 PM

Obviously depends on the size of the district. In this case, NY-23 has about 650,000 residents, so to reduce their margin of error to 3%, they would have had to sample 1000 (instead of 300); probably would have strengthened their results. Still 300 is not bad.

LastRick on October 26, 2009 at 12:28 PM

This poll was done over the weekend. Traditionally, Democrats do better on weekend polls.

MarkTheGreat on October 26, 2009 at 12:29 PM

For the good of the GOP, Scuzza should withdraw and support Hoffman.

rbj on October 26, 2009 at 12:29 PM

So, what it looks like it will come down to is how many people will vote for the R without knowing that the third party candidate would not only be more to their liking, but in the lead.

Count to 10 on October 26, 2009 at 12:30 PM

The RNC ignores us at their own peril. Hello, RNC, 73%? Oh that’s right, Mitch McConnell rejects those numbers. It’s so incredibly frustrating. Do they hear us? Do they care?

Annietxgrl on October 26, 2009 at 12:30 PM

Scuzza the Spoiler

Amadeus on October 26, 2009 at 12:30 PM

SouthernGent on October 26, 2009 at 12:27 PM

Even if its a win… the media and Oligarchs in Washington will downplay it…

Just like they did the numbers of the 9/12 march… minimize until its unimportant…

Romeo13 on October 26, 2009 at 12:30 PM

but it was ugly.

a capella on October 26, 2009 at 12:27 PM

I was working (retail) a second job (Obama economy) and missed it. I still have it on DVR but won’t put myself through it.

Mark is walking it back, isn’t he?

Think I may forgive him if he stays in this vein.

OmahaConservative on October 26, 2009 at 12:31 PM

I think the right is now doing what damaged Alaska so badly.

AnninCA on October 26, 2009 at 12:25 PM

We’re filing dozens of bogus ethics complaints against Scozzafava and the Democrat?

MarkTheGreat on October 26, 2009 at 12:31 PM

For the good of the GOP, Scuzza should withdraw and support Hoffman.

rbj on October 26, 2009 at 12:29 PM

+1

OmahaConservative on October 26, 2009 at 12:32 PM

The right is pouring through thousands of trash cans looking for tanning bed receipts?

MarkTheGreat on October 26, 2009 at 12:32 PM

THANKS, SARAH! :-D

Yephora on October 26, 2009 at 12:32 PM

The RNC’s more ascared of Cuda than the Dems.

Akzed on October 26, 2009 at 12:32 PM

No matter how it turns out, it will have a drastic effect on RNC fundraising. Eliminate the middleman and go direct with your money.

a capella on October 26, 2009 at 12:33 PM

How’s it feel to be all alone in THAT BIG TENT Mr. Gingrich?

Rovin on October 26, 2009 at 12:34 PM

It’s a NY issue, in my opinion. I think the right is now doing what damaged Alaska so badly. This is not a national election, people.

It’s local.

AnninCA on October 26, 2009 at 12:25 PM

Conservatism has no Borders.

I am Doug Hoffman.

LibTired on October 26, 2009 at 12:27 PM

Really? If so, don’t ever pull your punches, political expediency is a sign of no fortitude

MadDogF on October 26, 2009 at 12:34 PM

rbj on October 26, 2009 at 12:29 PM

I am pretty sure that since those supporting Mr. Hoffman are considered the traitors, that’s not going to happen. As I said over the weekend, if the only thing that comes out of this is b!tching and donations from the base for Mr. Hoffman, someone in the GOP might notice and finally get a clue.

Cindy Munford on October 26, 2009 at 12:34 PM

Um, Mark Davis just said he doubts Hoffman can win so yeah.

deidre on October 26, 2009 at 12:35 PM

Hoffman will be on Glenn Beck Show this afternoon.

redwhiteblue on October 26, 2009 at 12:35 PM

No matter how it turns out, it will have a drastic effect on RNC fundraising. Eliminate the middleman and go direct with your money.

a capella on October 26, 2009 at 12:33 PM

Thank You for Supporting Michele Bachmann

OmahaConservative on October 26, 2009 at 12:36 PM

Mark Davis is filling in for Rush right now and whining about Republicans being willing to give the election to Democrats because they insist on sticking to their principles. Yet he wants us to believe he’s a real conservative? Bullsh*t! Real conservatives have tougher spines than that. Please, Rush, call on Mark Stein more often and leave the equivocating squishies alone.

SKYFOX on October 26, 2009 at 12:36 PM

Is a sample of 300 a good enough predictor in a congressional district?

Mark1971 on October 26, 2009 at 12:20 PM

Yes, as long as the sample gives the desired result.

Polling 101.

fogw on October 26, 2009 at 12:36 PM

It’s a NY issue, in my opinion. I think the right is now doing what damaged Alaska so badly. This is not a national election, people.

It’s local.

AnninCA on October 26, 2009 at 12:25 PM

These elections affect ALL of us–especially when these congressional leaders vote on national issues and sit on committees that draft national legislation. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins are two examples of “local” politicians affecting MY life down here is South Florida. Sorry but it’s not local when these yahoos vote on things like Cap & Trade and nationalized health care.

Redneck Woman on October 26, 2009 at 12:38 PM

NO, this is not just a New York issue. If Hoffman can pull this off, the reverberations will be HUGE. Possibly bigger than if Christie pulls of a win in NJ. I hope the polling is accurate.

ParisParamus on October 26, 2009 at 12:38 PM

For the good of the GOP, Scuzza should withdraw and support Hoffman.

rbj on October 26, 2009 at 12:29 PM

She should withdaraw but would probably support the democrat.

farright on October 26, 2009 at 12:39 PM

If Scuzzywuzzy won the Margaret Sanger Award and Obooba didn’t, does that mean she’s greater than Obooba?!

How can there be an awared and Obooba not win it?!

Akzed on October 26, 2009 at 12:39 PM

Interesting.

If he’s elected, is he sort of the same catergory as Joe Liberman, independent? I’m just talking about his status as a congressman, not his politics, which is probably very different from Joe’s.

Oil Can on October 26, 2009 at 12:39 PM

Sarah Palin strikes again!!
The MSM will continue to insist that she has no influence.
They’ll keep saying that even when she’s moved all her stuff into 1600 Pennsylvania. I hope she puts a giant Moose head in the entry foyer :)

I’m donating to Hoffman again. This is GREAT news!!

Stephanie on October 26, 2009 at 12:40 PM

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDFjMjY0NGM0MGQzMjQ2Y2VlY2MwYWM3MGNmMjI5NDI=#

Dede Scozzafava is now, officially, an afterthought

Heh.

cs89 on October 26, 2009 at 12:41 PM

It would be great if it’s true.

matthew26 on October 26, 2009 at 12:42 PM

It’s unimaginable the number of intrigues GOP is weaving against this woman [Palin]. They’d never fight the Dems but go to such lengths to eat one of their own.
Promachus on October 26, 2009 at 12:24 PM

Exactly. Suddenly they find within themselves the animosity, ferocity and tenacity they could never find to fight leftists. They can “reach across the aisle” to the Left, but must annihilate Palin. Sickening, but all part of elitist power and turf-protection. Palin threatens their sinecures in ways the Left doesn’t; she would clean house. She is terrifying in every sense of the word to these monkey mandarins of the GOP.

rrpjr on October 26, 2009 at 12:43 PM

Guys, Grow Fins said if Hoffman wins, he will never post at Hot Air again!

Better than that. If he wins, I won’t ever post here again. Ever.

Grow Fins on October 26, 2009 at 12:41 PM

deidre on October 26, 2009 at 12:45 PM

Conservatism wins all the time. Palin’s endorsement is a MAJOR plus.

Palin 2012!!

cubachi on October 26, 2009 at 12:45 PM

I can’t help thinking of re-making a line from a song on the Saturday Night Fever soundtrack: “Burn, baby, burn…Disco inferno…Burn, baby, burn.”

The re-make: “Purge, baby, purge…RINO inferno…purge, baby, purge.”

BuckeyeSam on October 26, 2009 at 12:46 PM

deidre on October 26, 2009 at 12:45 PM
Guys, Grow Fins said if Hoffman wins, he will never post at Hot Air again!

Better than that. If he wins, I won’t ever post here again. Ever.

Grow Fins on October 26, 2009 at 12:41 PM

Go, Hoffman, go!

kingsjester on October 26, 2009 at 12:46 PM

I’m happy for Hoffman… but he should see someone about whitening those choppers.

D2Boston on October 26, 2009 at 12:46 PM

Oil Can on October 26, 2009 at 12:39 PM

The Senate, to the best of my memory, currently has 2 independents who caucus with Dems. In the house, I think everyone is either D or R.

I think if he wins, Hoffman would be the only Conservative representative, and would generally vote with the GOP. He describes himself as a long-time Republican, anyway.

cs89 on October 26, 2009 at 12:46 PM

GOP needs to wake up. No RINOs, no how.

evergreen on October 26, 2009 at 12:47 PM

I think if he wins, Hoffman would be the only Conservative representative, and would generally vote with the GOP. He describes himself as a long-time Republican, anyway.

cs89 on October 26, 2009 at 12:46 PM

I don’t think Hoffman has actually joined the Conservative party, he’s a Republican who happens to have the third party’s endorsement.

joe_doufu on October 26, 2009 at 12:49 PM

Actually, I understand why they prefer that Sarah NOT campaign in-district (and I’m a Goldwater era conservative). As sad as it is to say, Sarah’s voice and inflection on video pitching Hoffman specifically would be turned into a negative. Her written word is a powerful rouser of her supporters (including me) and she should speak more generally on how the GOP leadership cannot let conservative principle slide; if for no other reason, because it has a record of losing (Ford and McCain prove that).

michaelo on October 26, 2009 at 12:51 PM

The reason why this is, or would be BIG is that (1) he’s a “conservative”; this is New York State; Obama carried the area last year; and his fate seems to have changed post-Palin endorsement.

ParisParamus on October 26, 2009 at 12:51 PM

The RNC is sticking with DD. All the way down the tubes. At least we are loyal.

Kissmygrits on October 26, 2009 at 12:52 PM

Dede’s shoes keep falling off: Newt hardest hit.

moonbatkiller on October 26, 2009 at 12:53 PM

Is a sample of 300 a good enough predictor in a congressional district?

Mark1971 on October 26, 2009 at 12:20 PM

Since most polling is done inside CNN headquarters this is pretty good.

deadenders on October 26, 2009 at 12:53 PM

joe_doufu on October 26, 2009 at 12:49 PM

You could be right.

I do see him as the point of the spear, though, pushing “Conservative” back into the political lexicon if he pulls off a win.

cs89 on October 26, 2009 at 12:54 PM

However, with the large influx of money to Hoffman and the national attention he has received, that may be the best news for the Conservative Party in this race.

Conversely, exposure as a DIABLO hurt Scozzafava. And the absurdity of showing up at Hoffman’s HQ did not help either. Even though this is only for a year, it would really be nice to send a message to the filthy lying coward in the White House.

highhopes on October 26, 2009 at 12:54 PM

As Newt reads the poll his wife quietly lubes up the strap on.

heshtesh on October 26, 2009 at 12:54 PM

This race reminds of some High School comedy where the nerdy head of the math club is madeover by a hot chick into the captain of the football team. He hasn’t changed, people are just looking at him in a different light.

Hoffman needs to start acting like a frontrunner now and start exclusively attacking Owens, perhaps coupling Owens with Scuzzy once in a while, but his focus needs to be Owens and fiscal issues.

I’m not sure how reliable the CFG poll is considering Hoffman is their dog in the hunt, but this is still encouraging.

Daemonocracy on October 26, 2009 at 12:55 PM

What a good many people, including Newt and Rush sub Mark Davis, are overlooking is the percentage of Dems in this district who likely are disappointed enough with Obama to just stay home.

Much like the Rs who didn’t vote in 2008 because they were not pleased with McCain.

Obama carried NY-23 with only 52%, and you’ve got think there’s a sizeable number of Ds who have buyer’s remorse.

TXUS on October 26, 2009 at 12:55 PM

Writing is on the wall Newt.

Ducks are on the pond and the champagnes on ice.

Hoffman’s going to stick Scozz with those steely knives.

Cliche’s.

ted c on October 26, 2009 at 12:56 PM

Scuzzy-fevah

james23 on October 26, 2009 at 12:56 PM

Dede Soupsandwichsanger hows that award look from the bottom of the polls?

fourdeucer on October 26, 2009 at 12:56 PM

Better than that. If he wins, I won’t ever post here again. Ever.

Grow Fins on October 26, 2009 at 12:41 PM

$50 dollars just donated to Hoffman!!

portlandon on October 26, 2009 at 12:57 PM

The RNC is sticking with DD. All the way down the tubes. At least we are loyal.

Kissmygrits on October 26, 2009 at 12:52 PM

An oath to a liar is no oath a-tall.

Red Cloud on October 26, 2009 at 12:57 PM

Aren’t the people up there practically Canadians?

YYZ on October 26, 2009 at 12:58 PM

What this poll could effect is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Does it really matter if Hoffman wins more because of Dede’s vote collapsing than Hoffman winning her votes on his own. Bottom line: elections are all about numbers and percentages and turnout.

IMHO, keeping Sarah away from the “playing field” is like keeping Peyton Manning off the field because he is too good a quarterback.

In sports you win when your best players are your best players. Sarah is one of our best players. End of story.

technopeasant on October 26, 2009 at 12:58 PM

Boom goes the dynamites. Sarah kicking butt. Go doug go.

Palin/Jindal 2012

bessex on October 26, 2009 at 1:01 PM

Aren’t the people up there practically Canadians?

YYZ on October 26, 2009 at 12:58 PM

Pray thier not why do you think i moved here in the first place.

heshtesh on October 26, 2009 at 1:01 PM

An analogy that probably doesn’t work, but then again, it proves truth is stranger than fiction:

Up here in the Frozen North, way back in ’98, we had a crazy as a loon guy running for governor on a 3rd party (Independence) ticket.

He wa running against a very lefty DFLer, Skip Humphrey (son of HHH) and a former DFLer turned GOP opportunist, Norm Coleman.

The electorate was not happy with Skippy (lightweight) and Normy (soulless turncoat), so we said “what the hell, how bad could it be” and elected Jesse the Body.

And a week before ol’ Jesse “shocked the world”, he was polling 23%.

He won 38%. Coleman finished second and the Donk finished a distant 3rd. (Prompting local wags to comment that DFL now stood for Dead F**king Last, but I digress)

The point, don’t count Hoffman out. There are plenty of PO’ed folks who didn’t vote last time, and plenty of folks who have been looking for a reason to vote for a first time.

Maybe Hoffman needs a feather boa to seal the deal.

It worked in Minnesota…

Bruno Strozek on October 26, 2009 at 1:02 PM

Better than that. If he wins, I won’t ever post here again. Ever.

Grow Fins on October 26, 2009 at 12:41 PM

I maxed out to Hoffman last week but was heartened to hear that my sons have decided to contribute to him today.

With the above icing on the cake, however, I think I’ll give my dad a call.

TXUS on October 26, 2009 at 1:03 PM

The RNC is sticking with DD. All the way down the tubes. At least we are loyal.

Kissmygrits on October 26, 2009 at 12:52 PM

Do they really have that much of a choice? My advice to NY-23….Elect Hoffman and then fire the GOP leadership. My advice to Michael Steele….. Going for “electability” is a bad strategy. Electability doesn’t breed passion or excitement.

highhopes on October 26, 2009 at 1:04 PM

The NY23 has all the making of the Liberal-Republican high water mark. I’m sending some buck to the Hoffman Campaign.

hawkdriver on October 26, 2009 at 1:05 PM

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