Too good to check: Hoffman leading in NY-23?

posted at 12:15 pm on October 26, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

So says the Club for Growth, which polled 300 likely voters in the district — and it’s almost outside the margin of error.  Douglas Hoffman, whose candidacy caught fire over the last couple of weeks, now has 31.3% of the vote, while the endorsed Republican trails by over 11 ponts:

A poll released today by the Club for Growth shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman surging into the lead in the special election in New York’s 23rd congressional district to replace John McHugh, the former congressman who recently became Secretary of the Army.

The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 5.66%. No information was provided about any of the candidates prior to the ballot question.

This is the third poll done for the Club for Growth in the NY-23 special election, and Doug Hoffman is the only candidate to show an increase in his support levels in each successive poll. The momentum in the race is clearly with Hoffman.

“Hoffman now has a wide lead among both Republicans and Independents, while Owens has a wide lead among Democrats. Dede Scozzafava’s support continues to collapse, making this essentially a two-candidate race between Hoffman and Owens in the final week,” concluded Basswood Research’s pollster Jon Lerner, who conducted the poll for the Club.

If the reaction of the GOP base to Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Hoffman didn’t get the attention of party leadership, then the results surely will.  Many conservatives wondered whether splitting the vote now would be worth it in order to position Hoffman against a weak Democratic re-election effort in 2010.  This survey shows that the vote split here may be benefiting Hoffman rather than damaging him.

Republicans usually win this district easily, so a 4-point lead over a Democrat is still worrisome — and this is just one poll.  Twenty-two percent undecided voters will make the difference.  However, with the large influx of money to Hoffman and the national attention he has received, that may be the best news for the Conservative Party in this race.

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Oil Can on October 26, 2009 at 1:07 PM

More times than not here in NY the R’s & C’s run on the same party line but the R’s screw up so bad it left an opening for a C to get on the ticket. That how this became a three way race.

Clyde5445 on October 26, 2009 at 7:59 PM

FYI, Hannity, who is a good buddy of Newt, is sayin how great it is that Sarah endorsed Hoffman. He wasn’t parsing his words either. WOW, Hannity really is a conservative and not a GOP ho.

Geochelone on October 26, 2009 at 3:16 PM

That blew me away when I heard that on Sean’s radio show.

Sapwolf on October 26, 2009 at 8:00 PM

gary4205 on October 26, 2009 at 3:48 PM

Excellent post!

You understand the eternal struggle we are in.

It is a struggle as old as when one angel led a third down.

Sapwolf on October 26, 2009 at 8:09 PM

Today was the first time that I ever changed the channel on Rush’s show. Mark Taylor had me so mad I couldn’t listen anymore. His Newt Gingrich speech had me in fits, it’s people like him that would rather have a Republican vote Democrap than the actual Democrap, that makes us conservatives so irate and not vote.

Rush I love ya but never again with Mark Taylor please>

jainphx on October 26, 2009 at 8:19 PM

Time to send Hoffman some more money for the final push. A caller to one the radio shows today was calling as he drove from Michigan to NY-23 because Hoffman needs boots on the ground. If I were within driving distance, I’d go, too.

Gingrich was on Michael Medved’s show today reiterating why he endorsed Dede. Normally Medved’s staunchly anti-third party, but not in this case mainly because there was no primary. Newt emphasized that there were four meetings by the GOP “selection committee” and Hoffman lost in all four. His attitude was that these party officials knew best and everyone else should defer to their wishes. Newt, my man, you screwed the pooch on this one (especially if Hoffman ends up winning). Big time.

SukieTawdry on October 27, 2009 at 1:29 AM