Taliban suicide bomber attacks Pakistani nuclear base
posted at 10:55 am on October 23, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
Not for the first time, either. This attack on an air force base killed eight people and wounded 15. The good news is that it only affected the perimeter of the base, but the bad news is that the Taliban apparently believes it has a winning political formula:
Friday morning a suicide attacker struck a check post on the boundary of the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex, an Air Force base at Kamra, about 40 miles outside Islamabad, killing eight people, including two security personnel, and wounding a further 15.
“There were strict security arrangements, so he [the bomber] was intercepted at the first check post,” local police chief Fakhar Sultan told reporters.
Many of the attacks have been carried out in a deadly collaboration between Taliban extremists from the northwest and jihadists from the country’s most heavily populated province Punjab. The military is a favorite target. Earlier this month, a team of commando-style assailants shot their way into the military headquarters at Rawalpindi, while this week, gunmen ambushed a brigadier general in Islamabad, spraying his army jeep with bullets, killing him. …
Increasingly daring and sophisticated attacks by terrorists allied to al Qaida on some of Pakistan’s most sensitive and best protected installations have led to warnings that extremists could damage a nuclear facility or seize some nuclear material. The country’s nuclear sites are located mostly in the northwest of the country, close to the capital Islamabad, to keep them away from the border with arch-enemy India. However, that places them close to Pakistani Taliban extremists, who are massed in the northwest. Al Qaida has made clear its ambitions to get hold of a nuclear bomb or knowledge of nuclear technology. Several other sites associated with Pakistan’s nuclear weapons have previously been hit.
The Taliban have not chosen to attack fortified military positions for no good reason. The military in Pakistan is a political force as well as a security force. The shift in attacks to military targets (or better put, the addition of military targets to their usual terrorism of civilians) seems to show that the Taliban thinks they can push the Pakistani military into forcing a political retreat from the war. They certainly can’t believe that they can get to the nukes on these bases. That would take a vanguard of hundreds of suicide bombers to penetrate that far, and it would give too much warning to the secured areas of the bases — and besides, any passably-competent military would sniff out that kind of troop movement too far in advance for it to be effective.
They want to attack the morale of the military with suicide bombings and hostaging. Warriors want a straight-up fight, not suicide attacks against which they cannot begin to defend themselves. By sapping the morale of the rank and file, the Taliban hope to blunt the effort to push the radicals out of the FATAs on the border of Afghanistan, which started this week, and perhaps push the military to demand another truce from the government instead of a fight.
Will that work? The government has not shied away from counterproductive truces in the past. If the military builds up enough discontent, they could conduct yet another coup, which is probably what the Taliban wants. More instability and anger allows them to recruit better, and to grab territory while Islamabad quakes.
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If this affects the morale of the Pakistan military… Pakistan sucks.
mankai on October 23, 2009 at 10:57 AM
Wouldn’t this be more likely to make the military push for a severe offensive into Taliban territory? Any remotely professional military wouldn’t cave after a few attacks, would they?
jwolf on October 23, 2009 at 11:00 AM
This same crap combined with no clear goal is affecting the morale of the American military. Does America suck?
uknowmorethanme on October 23, 2009 at 11:01 AM
Are we sure the bomber wasn’t an evangelical?
flyfisher on October 23, 2009 at 11:07 AM
I am sure it was one of those christian fundementalists with a grudge and a valid passport. They do $hit like this all the time in the US remember?/
Johnnyreb on October 23, 2009 at 11:10 AM
And your point is….?
MikeA on October 23, 2009 at 11:10 AM
I was kind of hoping the earthquake was a man made disaster designed to destroy AQ or the Taliban.
fourdeucer on October 23, 2009 at 11:12 AM
Are we sure the bomber wasn’t an evangelical?
flyfisher on October 23, 2009 at 11:07 AM
Was he holding a covered dish?
kingsjester on October 23, 2009 at 11:12 AM
Does Wal-mart carry industrial strength girds for one’s loins?
rbj on October 23, 2009 at 11:13 AM
I don’t agree that it’s bad news that the Taliban are attacking these facilities. One, they are not going to overrun any of these facilities and steal a nuclear device. Two, while these suicide attacks are demoralizing to any military force, the fact that the Taliban are attacking nuclear facilities is likely to embolden the Pakistanis. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is its main deterrent for India. Without these weapons, Pakistan is put at an incredible disadvantage militarily. Moreover if these weapons were to fall into the hands of a jihadist, the whole world would rain hell down upon Pakistan. Pakistan is not going to take this lightly, and the Pakistani military is less likely to negotiate with anyone who endangers Pakistan that greatly.
Shock the Monkey on October 23, 2009 at 11:15 AM
They are going to get nukes. Eventually. It’s inevitable unfortunately.
wildcat84 on October 23, 2009 at 11:18 AM
Who is going to get nukes? The Taliban? What makes you say that?
Shock the Monkey on October 23, 2009 at 11:20 AM
Islam creates fatalistic fanatics.
One side will eventually overwhelm and destroy the other.
Since neither can accept the existence of the other’s beliefs.
The “weak” Muslims of the Pakistan (according to the “strong” Muslims of the Taliban) will either realize that they cannot trust or have treaties with those sworn to exterminate them, and will strike back to extirpate the Taliban, or their indecisiveness will allow the terrorists to gain ground and recruits. Leading to their eventual overthrow, and the Paki nukes falling under the control of the Taliban / al-Qaeda gang.
Meanwhile, Michelle Obama dazzles the media with her hulahoop skills and Obama declares war on Fox News.
profitsbeard on October 23, 2009 at 11:29 AM
Because they will eventually learn to go around the checkpost or only use it as a diversion. Didn’t we just lose 8 fine soldiers at a remote post due to an overwhelming force of 300 fighters coming out of a mosque? What if while they are repairing damage to the checkpost the Taliban try again?
journeyintothewhirlwind on October 23, 2009 at 11:30 AM
I’m sure the Pakistani people take a great deal of nationalist pride over their nuclear arsenal.
Attacking the facilities may be a smart attempt to weaken the morale of the military but I doubt the people of Pakistan will take kindly to such an attack on their national symbol of strength and accomplishment.
SteveMG on October 23, 2009 at 11:34 AM
The Pakistani military has over 700,000 active duty soldiers (not including reserves). They do not have the same issues with undermanned COPs like the United States Military has in Afghanistan. Given the importance of these facilities, these outposts are not going to be undermanned, like U.S. facilities. These are Pakistan’s most prized possessions, and they are not going to have them protected by a green, poorly trained force.
Shock the Monkey on October 23, 2009 at 11:40 AM
I assume you mean the terrorists are going to eventually get nukes. And I totally agree. This instance may not be means to that end, as Ed said it’s more aptly a strike at Pakistan’s military morale.
I realize this…Does anyone know of a link or source I can reference that describes the Paki government in regards to governmental powers/military independence in detailed, yet simple (for me) terms? I’d like to know more about how that works. Thanks in advance.
JetBoy on October 23, 2009 at 11:41 AM
FUBAR!
hawkman on October 23, 2009 at 11:42 AM
The Pakistan Military does not have their hands tied by Obama’s Rules of Engagement….
…. Why don’t they just say;
Seven Percent Solution on October 23, 2009 at 11:45 AM
Excellent question. I had a sweet aunt (God rest her soul) who was the world’s worst cook. When she came to the door with a dish in hand –which was often, we’re Baptists — everyone groaned because her casseroles were weapons of mass nausea. She could have easily taken out a Pakistani nuclear facility with her “Hamburger Surprise.” Yikes!
flyfisher on October 23, 2009 at 11:45 AM
You are looking at this through the Lens of Western Wimpy Philosophy.
Anger the Pakistani Army enough, and they will start to level places.
No militia can stand up to an organized army in a stand up fight… and thats just what the Pakistan army CAN make this, by NOT playing by Western rules…
Go in, and cleanse the area… KILL anyone suspected of helping the insurgents… rule by FEAR… remember, the Pakistani army is NOT limited by the same Social/Legal framework that we shackle our US troops with.
Romeo13 on October 23, 2009 at 11:46 AM
Do you really want to compare the two situations?
The post’s point is that an essentially failed attack (not even remotely close to the supposed intended target) IN PAKISTAN is cause for fear that the Pakistan military will lose its will to fight IN PAKISTAN, then we are left with appeasement as the only policy. Pakistan cannot withdraw from Pakistan.
As to the first comment, do you honestly believe that any amount of attacks on US soil (esp. 40 miles from the capital) against troops would ever cause you to believe that the US military would wilt and push for a truce?
I have more faith in our military men and women.
mankai on October 23, 2009 at 11:52 AM
Oh yeah, let’s all set around the table with the tallybaun…they’re a peace loving, harmless lot.
yoda on October 23, 2009 at 12:05 PM
ummmmm…I know..these people live in caves and are considered un-educated, tribal, etc..etc..etc..if any among us think that the terrorists are not smart enough, or willing enough to stage a massive attack to seize Paki nukes, even if all they can do is just sit on them,,,well..i got some land here in Pittsburgh i want to sell you..cheep..just ask the former Soviet military people…well trained, aggressive, modern weapons…etc…etc…etc…it was one bomber at one outpost…imagine 100 bombers ..think they don’t have the will or manpower..huh?
JJKRN on October 23, 2009 at 12:05 PM
It would be TET all over again… they would make a lot of noise… cause some casulties… get a LOT of airplay while Pundits and Politicians scream about defeat…
But would also break themselves as a viable military force.
Romeo13 on October 23, 2009 at 12:14 PM
I don’t understand the relevance of the Soviet Union’s experience in Afghanistan. I say that because the Pakistani military is not some foreign, despised military occupier. The Pakistani military is operating in it’s own territory. Completely different scenarios.
Of course the Taliban would love to get their hands on a nuclear weapon. If they could conjure up 1000 suicide bombers to complete the task, they would. However the location of these nuclear sites is not common knowledge. Good luck finding these weapons. Furthermore these weapons are generally stored in component form (they have to be assembled), so good luck finding all of the pieces. Most importantly, good luck overcoming the huge military force occupying these sites. If the Taliban were to ever come close to overrunning a nuclear site, the place would be obliterated.
Shock the Monkey on October 23, 2009 at 12:17 PM
Is naivete back in vogue? This is an extremely silly assertion to make. Firstly, to try and make assessments of what you think the Taliban can, or cannot, BELIEVE, themselves, is pretty wacky. Have you taken a look at the stuff they believe in, the stuff they believe they can do, and they stuff they have done? What would you have said before 9/11 is someone proposed that the Taliban believed they could be the base of an operation to attack the US on US soil? I venture to guess that you would have called that person “crazy”.
What’s even worse is that the Taliban certainly CAN get to the nukes.
You seem to be assuming no inside help, here. Why is that? Why do you limit their tactics to your imagination? No discussion of a chemical attack (either with a sleep agent or something fatal)? What about using animals or other plentiful modes of attack?
Any static position is assailable. Period. Especially in Pakistan. Don’t act as if the Pakistani controls are even close to the level of US, or even Russian, controls. Don’t underestimate both the insanity and the resourcefulness of the Taliban and their associated nutcases.
progressoverpeace on October 23, 2009 at 12:19 PM
BTW, who’s AQ Khan talking to, these days? How can anyone talk about Pakistani nukes without mentioning him?
progressoverpeace on October 23, 2009 at 12:20 PM
Shock the Monkey on October 23, 2009 at 12:17 PM
I know how nukes are stored, manufactured, etc…I used to work with ALL things nuclear…the Soviet analogy was that a supposed modern army can be defeated by a rag tag tribal bunch..The level of intrigue and flat out love for jihadism in the Paki army is enormous…just the attempt by a large suicide force who got within maybe 1 klik of a weapon is hair raising…the simple fact a bomber exploded himself at the gate of a storage area is in itself alarming…I do not believe for a nano second if confronted by a large organized assault force at a weapons depot…many, if not most would turn tail and save their own asses….i just don’t see them fighting to the last man…
JJKRN on October 23, 2009 at 12:32 PM
Paging Matthews…….
FontanaConservative on October 23, 2009 at 12:37 PM
I completely agree that the fact that a suicide bomber detonated himself outside of a Pakistani nuclear site is disheartening. However, I do not understand why you and many others completely underestimate the capabilities of the Pakistani military.
Shock the Monkey on October 23, 2009 at 12:42 PM
It might be instructive to remind people that Pakistan, the country, is literally bankrupt. It was only an injection of cash by us that keeps them going. Bankruptcy of a nation carries many consequences with it. One might ask how a bankrupt nation keeps nukes. The answer is, “They don’t.”
Pakistan is full-blown third-world. Their military is not a well-oiled machine, of any sort, but a third-world machine. Nukes are first-world weapons. That is a bad and dangerous combination. Further, there are tons of jihadi supporters in the military (and worse, in their intelligence arms).
The fact that Pakistan doesn’t assume it has sovereignty over many of the tribal areas should tell you about the effectiveness of the Pakistani military and how much the government trusts its hold on the nation.
You know, when the USSR fell and secrets about the SOviet nuke arsenal started dribbling out, people were shocked at the lack of controls they had. Controls that we had and that we assumed the Soviets must have had. Take the USSR, move it back a few centuries, and you have Pakistan. If you are trusting Pakistani competence for anything (a country that has regular coups) then that is a bad, bad bet. On the other side of that bet is a determined and insanely single-minded group of death-loving jihadis.
progressoverpeace on October 23, 2009 at 12:51 PM
the core cadre of American trained officers is basically gone….for what ever reason they left…in place are political types, trained ..yes…oh..there are a few units trained up and willing to fight…the influence of decades of jihad based schooling is evident…if India attacked Paki tomorrow they would fight like lions…if their own jihadis attack them on the basis of religion..they fold in the end..it’s not called Islamabad for no reason..
JJKRN on October 23, 2009 at 12:52 PM
You hit the nail on the head my friend. One cannot examine Pakistan’s behavior/attitude towards Jihadi groups, Afghanistan, the FATA etc. without bringing India into the equation. It’s for that reason, that I believe Pakistan would never allow the Taliban to seize a nuclear device. Pakistan’s main Indian deterrent has to be well protected and well hidden. I have a hard time believing even the ISI would sell out the military in this instance. The ISI’s relationship with Jihadist groups is framed within an Indian/Pakistan context. If you’d like me to elaborate, just ask.
Shock the Monkey on October 23, 2009 at 1:20 PM
And where are many of those troops now? Fighting Taliban forces within there own country on land that they “gave up” in return for a promise of no hostility. How is that working out?
The Taliban will keep dividing the Pakistani army, keep setting off bombs at checkpoints, and learning with each failure what they can try “next time”.
And I hope that this base continually checks for tunnels.
I hope you are right and that the Pakistani do take enormous pride and put the needed money into protecting their nuke sites and that any money we sent them to do help do this wasn’t diverted to other projects or worse bank accounts.
journeyintothewhirlwind on October 23, 2009 at 1:27 PM
interesting…I agree, they don’t want the Talib’s to have a nuke…I just think it is a very strong possibility that it will happen..the ISI….well..who knows…oriental intrigue knows no bounds..my opinion is that they are as per usual, playing all sides…where the Jihadi are only playing one side..their own…Pakistan is not a real country…we know that…anyway…your opinions are well thought out..thank you..i keep praying
JJKRN on October 23, 2009 at 1:29 PM
Uhm… he didn’t have the bomb up his bum did he? Getting on military base could get much worse if that’s the case.
“Sir, I need you to step out of your vehicle and bend over.”
Rightwingguy on October 23, 2009 at 1:33 PM
Dude, just read some of the other things I said earlier. This is no longer an issue where Pakistan is approaching Jihadist groups half assed because it’s under outside pressure to do so. If this attack is as serious as many believe, than as I said earlier, it’s an India/Pakistan issue. You cannot look at Pakistan’s relationship to Jihadist groups, Afghanistan, Nuclear weapons, etc without examining Pakistan’s grave fear and hatred of India. Such a situation as many here have laid out (Taliban with the bomb) would put Pakistan in an awful situation.
Shock the Monkey on October 23, 2009 at 1:42 PM
Weren’t personnel within Pakistan’s ISI accused of providing help to the Mumbai attackers? Doesn’t that show you that there is a group within the ISI that does not appreciate the static, cold war situation between Pakistan and India? What do you think they were thinking would happen? The Taliban, ever wishing for the 72 virgins, wouldn’t mind getting the nukes and targeting a few at India, even if it meant their own earthly destruction.
journeyintothewhirlwind on October 23, 2009 at 1:55 PM
Ok let me break it down for you. The ISI supports Jihadist groups, because they serve a purpose in Pakistan’s “war” India. They support Afghan groups because Pakistan has always desired an Afghan client state to provide strategic depth in the event of an Indian invasion. It also supports Jihadist groups who deliberately attack Indian interests (you mentioned Mumbai). HOWEVER, providing nuclear weapons to terrorists such as the Taliban or Lashkar-e-Taiba etc does not fit with the Pakistan v. India equation. Nuclear weapons are the major deterrent which have prevented the tensions between the two countries from turning into a full scale war. Without nukes, Pakistan is completely vulnerable. Furthermore, if these nukes go missing, expect all hell to break loose in Pakistan. It’s not in their interest (at all) to lose those weapons.
Shock the Monkey on October 23, 2009 at 2:04 PM
Can you point out glorious examples of Pakistani military prowess? Something that highlights the integrity and clear sighted action of their officer corps. Off the top of my head I can only think of successful genocide actions against “enemy” civilians but little else.
Please remember, they are Muslims with modern equipment and all the logistics, trust and cooperation that that entails to be successful. All those things (eg. trust and cooperation) for which they have no aptitude or taste make them useless on the modern field of battle. They know this, that is why deceit, smoke and mirrors and treasure drainage is the overall strategy to weaken and subdue the west. It is working beautifully for Islam. We resignedly content ourselves with whack-a-mole and building combustible girls schools.
BL@KBIRD on October 23, 2009 at 2:18 PM
No, Ed, you missed the point, IMHO. The Taliban is just announcing they know where Pakistan’s nukes are located.
On the contrary, sir. They are telling the world they can go take the nukes ANY TIME THEY WANT.
dogsoldier on October 23, 2009 at 2:20 PM
There is another alternative. Rather than ‘sapping the morale’, it might just piss them off enough to take over and really ‘clean house’.
GarandFan on October 23, 2009 at 2:20 PM
Pakistani military prowess? For the past few years Pakistan’s military has been fighting a low intensity conflict with an enemy which until rather recently has been an asset rather than an enemy to it’s strategic goals. Read my previous post for the explanation, frankly I’m tired of responding. Anyway, it approached it half assedly because it was not in its best interest to do so. Moreover, you had many instances like in Swat, where you had soldiers fighting against individuals they grew up with. You wonder why there were defections and low morale? Combine those two factors and you have a poorly run, mildly effective military operation. These however are poor examples (for the reasons stated above, it’s almost as if they took a dive because they made more money losing than winning). If this becomes a serious issue, expect a serious response.
P.S. Please spare me the Islam meme that I hear so frequently on this site.
Shock the Monkey on October 23, 2009 at 2:28 PM
The Military and the ISI are deeply entwined. The ISI and the Taliban share ties. I don’t think they will be any cleaning house. They will probably do a raid or two and slip back into the slackluster effort that characterizes most of their cooperation.
nyx on October 23, 2009 at 2:31 PM
It might seem a little personal but are you by any chance Pakistani? You seem way too vested in the military prowess of Pakistan. Most South Asian armies are pitiful and despite Pakistani boast of its military prowess, it belongs in the same league. Pakistan has lost three wars with India and has conducted a ‘civil war’ with East Pakistan which they lost as well (East Pakistan is now present day Bangladesh). I am not dissing the state of Pakistan but I am not seeing any of this supposed military prowess though I will be happy to hear what it is.
nyx on October 23, 2009 at 2:35 PM
Their ultimate goal is bigger than terrorizing and killing a few hotel guests. The ISI personnel who helped the Mumbai terrorists wanted India to strike back. It was only the coolheadedness of some of the leaders in India and Pakistan and the calls from the US and others to not retaliate that saved that situation from spiralling out of control. Thank God for that. But those leaders might not always be there. Was this Pakistani General who was just killed one of those? I don’t know. But I am betting the Taliban and jihadists are targeting the cool headed leaders of Pakistan right now.
journeyintothewhirlwind on October 23, 2009 at 2:36 PM
Isn’t it time Pakistan test a nuclear bomb….
say in a Taliban stronghold like Swat?
North Korea can test with no sanctions why shouldn’t Pakistan be allowed to drop a “small” nuke on it’s internal enemy?
Just one man’s opinion.
SFTech on October 23, 2009 at 2:44 PM
Ah! Indeed, you are right. Talk of “Islam” is no longer in fashion anymore. They had their 15
hundred yearsminutes and its going to take a big new pile of dead westerners to make a comeback. Let’s wait for that.BL@KBIRD on October 23, 2009 at 2:46 PM
Hahaha no I’m not Pakistani. I don’t have anything vested in the military prowess of Pakistan. I only think that many on this site are quick to come to a false conclusion. I think Pakistan has the capability to prevent the Taliban from obtaining any of its own nuclear materials. Like I said, if this threat is a legitimate, serious threat, expect Pakistan to act decisively, rather than drag it’s feet (because it’s in its best interest to do so).
Also please tell me where I’ve explicitly stated where I’ve talked up the military prowess of Pakistan? I only asked why people underestimate it’s military capabilities.
Shock the Monkey on October 23, 2009 at 2:53 PM
Understood. I just think that you vastly overestimate the professionalism and competency of the Pakistani military, along with assuming a uniformity of purpose that just doesn’t exist there (or anywhere in the arab/persian/muslim world, frankly). Also, Pakistan has a long history of doing things that would not be seen by outsiders to be in their “best interests”.
progressoverpeace on October 23, 2009 at 3:00 PM
Well you are entitled to your own opinion and I respect that. I don’t think I’ve vastly over estimated there capabilities, and having seen and worked with individuals in the pakistani military/government, I would say there are elements of highly competent, intelligent motivated leaders. That’s just an impression however, for I’ve never seen them in the field.
Yeah like supporting terrorism. However, since the Pakistani’s only have India on the brain, to them it’s in their best interests.
Shock the Monkey on October 23, 2009 at 3:10 PM
We just disagree on this. No big deal. We’ll find out who’s correct, soon enough.
I always thought Bush made a huge mistake stopping Palistan and India from going nuclear on each other the couple of times they cam close after 9/11. That would be the only way to defang Pakistan without our having to go in and take the nukes from them (which will have to be done, at some point). And if India and Pakistan had gone to nuke war, we would have been motivated to issue final ultimatums to Iran and North Korea that would have abruptly ended their nuclear runs, too – as Pakistan and India actually flinging nukes at each other would have put to rest this idiotic idea many people have that all this nuclear proliferation is just a gmae that can be contained. Instead, we are now stuck with nukes popping up everywhere and a stone-cold traitor in the White House who wants the US to suffer great damage.
progressoverpeace on October 23, 2009 at 3:15 PM
Nuclear proliferation is definitely a problem that most presidential administrations have ignored. Making empty gestures has accomplished nothing than arming mad men with weapons they shouldn’t have. Now we’re in a position where seizing these weapons is too costly. Obama is certainly not the right man to be dealing with this, and unfortunately our allies abroad don’t have the stomach to fight anyone anymore. We’re all screwed.
Shock the Monkey on October 23, 2009 at 3:27 PM
Pakistan has about four hundred front-line fighters, probably more since we’ve been sending them “anti-jihad” money. They have F-16s, Chinese light bombers, Chinese fighters, Mirage III and 5, and US Hercs (C-130) for transport, among quite a few other airframes.
Half million+ man army.
Around 1,500 MBTs. Loads of LAVs and APCs. And lots of light to very heavy artillery, 40 mechanized and 40 towed 203mm!
Along with quite a few advanced European and US attack and transport helicopters.
Just for reference. I have no idea how many hours training they get, or how loyal the soldiers and airmen are to the central government. I suspect the Pashtun are still quite loyal to tribe over nation, explaining many of their glaring security lapses over the preceding months.
Beagle on October 23, 2009 at 4:29 PM
In the long run, this Taliban strategy may be just what the doctor ordered.
Hopefully, the Pakistan military, from Generals down to Privates will realize their privates are at risk and fight hard to kill all the bastards.
fred5678 on October 23, 2009 at 4:48 PM
The Pakistanis need to worry about more important stuff, like man-made global warming and universal healthcare!
TonyR on October 23, 2009 at 10:45 PM
What should have been done by the Shah of Iran?
FeFe on October 24, 2009 at 1:58 PM