Rasmussen: Romney, Huckabee crushing Palin head to head among Republican likely voters

posted at 4:46 pm on October 19, 2009 by Allahpundit

C’mon. You know I had to.

Among likely Republican primary voters, Palin now trails former Arkansas governor-turned-Fox-TV-host Mike Huckabee by 20 points – 55% to 35%.

When her opponent is ex-Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Palin loses by 15 – 52% to 37%…

Twenty-one percent (21%) of primary voters also say Palin is the GOP candidate they would least like to see win the party’s presidential nomination. Just nine percent (9%) say the same of Romney, and eight percent (8%) feel that way about Huckabee…

Suggesting that Romney’s Mormon faith may still be a problem among some Christian conservatives, Palin leads him by 14 points – 52% to 38% – among GOP primary voters who describe themselves as Evangelical Christians. But Romney beats Palin by 26 points among other Protestants – 58% to 32% – and holds similar winning margins among Catholic voters and those of other faiths.

My suspicion, especially in light of that 21 percent figure, is that this is mainly a measure of Palin vs. Anyone But Palin and has little to do with Huck or Mitt on their own merits. Polls of Romney’s and Huckabee’s approval show that upwards of 30 percent are undecided about them versus just 10 percent for Sarahcuda. In a match-up between “I don’t know him” and “I don’t like her,” no surprise that the undecideds are going to break for the former — which is good news for Palin, since the gap’s bound to narrow as the public becomes more acquainted with the bad points of her competition. What is surprising, and what may puncture my theory, is that this is a poll of likely Republican primary voters, not the general public. It stands to reason that they’re more familiar with Romney and Huckabee than the average joe and it confounds the conventional wisdom that they’re not better disposed to Palin, who’s supposed to be the darling of the shrunken Republican base. How to read this, then? As proof that Huck and Mitt are still relatively unknown even among GOP primary voters? Or as proof that the party’s tent is actually bigger than people think?

While we’re talking Sarahcuda, Conservatives 4 Palin has a smart post about how she’s using new media to get her message out unfiltered by the media prism. Anita Dunn’s taking flak today from the right for supposedly saying that Team Barry used the Internet last year to “control” the media, but C4P is right: What she meant was that the media can’t be trusted to deliver a candidate’s message just the way he/she wants it, so the only option is to “control” them by putting the message out to the public through direct online communications. Palin’s learned that lesson better than her competitors. So far.


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I understand Rino. AP can take it, I reckon. Plus he knew his thread would goad…just look at his opening line. AP can take it. He’s an alpha-male.

Gob on October 19, 2009 at 6:24 PM

Yeah, I’m not so worried about Allah. As a Beta male, there is no risk of offending him since he has no pride.

I’m more concerned with the conservative movement. I like to think people like Percy are the exception, but sometimes I wonder. It’s probably my imagination though, since while I think a lot of Palin supporters here are overly defensive of her, very few have gone batsh*t crazy like that.

That said, I realize its dangerous to speculate on peoples’ emotions, but I since I like to live dangerously:

I think a lot of Palin’s supporters have become a bit too emotionally invested in her, to the point that they can’t see some clear weaknesses and are blaming the media too much.

If Palin is going to recover, she will need to realize that she has made mistakes and find a way to deal with them – she has blamed “gotcha politics”, but I don’t think that really appeals to anyone but the right. Centrists have real doubts about her, and complaining about her critics won’t help. Because of that, whether or not she has been treated unfairly, she doesn’t need supporters encouraging her to feel victimized.

RINO in Name Only on October 19, 2009 at 6:41 PM

What’s Palin’s position on immigration?

Abby Adams on October 19, 2009 at 5:22 PM

What’s Mitt’s or Huck’s?

Foolish talk. NOBODY should be talking immigration. It is WAY too hot right now. Be patient, and wait for Obama to try to push amnesty and then we pounce on him.

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 6:41 PM

Mitt is not a Rino; McCain was, and is a Rino. Mitt is right of center; perhaps not a right of center as your fantasy vision of Palin, but sufficiently right of center to get the vote out. Add in Palin as VP (P in training), and we can win.

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 6:42 PM

RINO in Name Only on October 19, 2009 at 6:41 PM

Heh, heh…now there are some peeps on here MORE angry than Percy. Oy vey es mere! NOW I see the war lines!

Gob on October 19, 2009 at 6:45 PM

Tyrone Slothrop on October 19, 2009 at 6:38 PM

Yeeeeah, good luck with that. No offense, but:

Allahpundit > 1,000 Tyrone Slothrops

Abby Adams on October 19, 2009 at 6:45 PM

As for Mitt fans supporting Sarah, if she is the nominee, they will support her. But judging from countless threads here (including that comment from you!) the reverse would not happen. Which is a damned shame.

Buy Danish on October 19, 2009 at 5:21 PM

I’ve been saying for over a year now, that the Palin/Romney ticket in 2012, is the Reagan/Bush ticket of 1980.

Grassroots & elites coming together to take out Jimmy Carter.

portlandon on October 19, 2009 at 6:45 PM

Is it 2012 already?

hawksruleva on October 19, 2009 at 6:47 PM

portlandon, it’s Romney Palin. Get real. Please.

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 6:47 PM

JetBoy on October 19, 2009 at 5:19 PM

That is such BS JetBoy.

Nobody here who leans toward Palin calls those who don’t Obama lovers.

Cut the crap. That is MSNBC tactics.

Palin’s supporters on HotAir are in her camp because she is the one they perceive who is:

1) Conservative
2) Charismatic
3) Authentic
4) Capable of beating Obama.

It is that simple.

Notice that you don’t see very many posts on HotAir for Huckabee or Romney with the passion. VFT did pretty good for Huck, but in general you don’t see it.

PASSION will be a pre-requisite to defeat Obama due to the passion, money, and media that will be on his side come 2012.

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 6:48 PM

Sarah Palin, the only true conservative

Tyrone Slothrop on October 19, 2009 at 6:38 PM

Gee, crazy of me to refer to some people as worshipers.

MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 6:48 PM

portlandon, it’s Romney Palin. Get real. Please.

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 6:47 PM

Romulans are as bad as Palinistas.

portlandon on October 19, 2009 at 6:50 PM

What she meant was that the media can’t be trusted to deliver a candidate’s message just the way he/she wants it

STRATEGY: Palin needs to make sure the public understands why she is bypassing the mainstream media and delivering her message to them like this. Don’t come across too conspiracy minded – just be matter of fact; that the TV-news media have a problem reporting facts – and point out “inaccurate statements” as evidence. Be non-confrontational. Just be straightforward. Most conservatives already know the MSM is deliberately trying to help Democrats and it’s wrong. Get this message out to as many people as possible. Start building it now. And Huckabee, well, he’s doing just fine. With his hit TV show “Huckabee” and radio program, more and more Americans are now realizing what many of us already knew; that he has taken good stands on many issues and has the qualities of a winning candidate. Thank you.

apacalyps on October 19, 2009 at 6:51 PM

They’re wrong, and if you mention it, they’ll cut your eyes out. Obama cultists, Palin worshipers, and Scientologists. Birds of a feather.

MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 5:23 PM

No, that is not what is happening.

When we refute your argument with her record and point out the weakness in your favorite candidate, you can’t support them.

Why? They are NOT conservative.

Romneycare is a mess, and you cannot ignore it. Mitt owns it.

Government grew under Huckabee. He owns his record.

Sarah’s record both in ethics, and her accomplishments are clearly better than them.

Palin fans work off of facts and Huck and Mitt supporters are still working off the effects of their kool-aid.

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 6:53 PM

Sarah Palin, the only true conservative

Tyrone Slothrop on October 19, 2009 at 6:38 PM

RON PAUL!!!11!!

RINO in Name Only on October 19, 2009 at 6:54 PM

Huck dealt with the same propoganda was war against him during the Republican primaries

apacalyps on October 19, 2009 at 6:09 PM

Meant war.

apacalyps on October 19, 2009 at 6:55 PM

What happened to Duncan Hunter? He was awesome across the board, and made sense every time he spoke which was obviously censored out by the MSM, and rarely got a question at the “debates” – we need someone like him in 2012.

txrmctague on October 19, 2009 at 5:26 PM

I like him too. And his name is cool too, like a Navy SEAL or some character out of a Clancy novel.

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 6:55 PM

I like Palin.

jimmy2shoes on October 19, 2009 at 6:57 PM

Rope a dope..

the_nile on October 19, 2009 at 6:59 PM

Gee, crazy of me to refer to some people as worshipers.

MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 6:48 PM

What seems crazy is you keep showing up on any thread that mentions Palin to demean her supporters.

darwin on October 19, 2009 at 6:59 PM

Sapwolf, no, COMPETENCE, above all with the economy will be #1 after our current moron experience. Maybe Romney’s dullness is a liability, maybe it’s not (“Pres. Moron is exciting–look what that got us”); that’s why Palin as a VP works, in spades.
.
Palin fanboys (and fangirls): not the worst thing in the world, but come on! If you want to see her get to be President, VP is the only viable path remaining. Her resignation and Couric-treatment has burned all other bridges. Fair, or unfair, she needs an assist. VP is the most plausible path, followed by a Secretary of Energy appointment in some else’s administration. But I don’t think Romney can get there alone.
.
Huckabee a disgrace, and a bad joke; who is left? Has a dark horse beat a sitting President?

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 6:59 PM

I like Palin.

jimmy2shoes on October 19, 2009 at 6:57 PM

Can you please tone down your hateful, cultish rhetoric? It’s divisive comments like yours that give Palin supporters a bad name.

Thanks

/s/

darwin on October 19, 2009 at 7:01 PM

Sapwolf, no, COMPETENCE, above all with the economy will be #1 after our current moron experience. Maybe Romney’s dullness is a liability, maybe it’s not (”Pres. Moron is exciting–look what that got us”); that’s why Palin as a VP works, in spades.

For the 4th or 5th time, won’t happen. She’s not going to be the goat again: use her to get out the base that Romney can’t attract, then blame her for the loss. She (and we) have been down that road already.

ddrintn on October 19, 2009 at 7:04 PM

Her resignation and Couric-treatment has burned all other bridges. Fair, or unfair, she needs an assist. VP is the most plausible path, followed by a Secretary of Energy appointment in some else’s administration.

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 6:59 PM

Palin resigns from office due to unprecedented reasons and with noble intent, and has a bad interview and she’s toast?

ObamaCare is based on Romney Care … which most of the country doesn’t want. How is that less to overcome than a bad interview?

darwin on October 19, 2009 at 7:04 PM

SCSoxFan on October 19, 2009 at 5:31 PM

Exactly. If she comes off as not being strong enough to voters to envision her as POTUS, then her support drops overnight.

Give her her chance to shine. If she don’t, we still have time to look for a conservative somewhere else. I don’t know where nationally but somebody might rise up. I think Jim DeMint is the only other one out there at this time.

By early 2011, the list of possibles will look very different.

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 7:05 PM

ObamaCare is based on Romney Care … which most of the country doesn’t want. How is that less to overcome than a bad interview?

darwin on October 19, 2009 at 7:04 PM

Not quite the same, but it’s going to be a killer nevertheless.

ddrintn on October 19, 2009 at 7:05 PM

When we refute your argument with her record and point out the weakness in your favorite candidate, you can’t support them.

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 6:53 PM

You know who my favorite candidate is, eh? Doubt it.

What seems crazy is you keep showing up on any thread that mentions Palin to demean her supporters.

darwin on October 19, 2009 at 6:59 PM

After months of offering normal criticism of decisions of hers I’ve found to be in error, and being stretched over the rack for it, I’ve found it’s best merely to comment on the atmosphere of the site. Taking part has become an exercise in masochism if you aren’t towing the chosen line.

MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 7:06 PM

Romney-Palin (and yes, a lot of people, rightly or wrongly, will vote for Romney just to get Palin in position to run for President–that’s fine with me!): not only can it be a winning ticket, but the Lefties will so freak out, and make so many unforced errors that the Dems will be losers for another 30 years. IT WILL BE WONDERFUL.

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 5:31 PM

No it won’t. Romney is a RINO and will govern that way.

Palin will need to be the top of the ticket if we hope to STOP cold the growth of government.

Yes, I’d vote for that, but no volunteer time or money.

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 7:07 PM

I refuse to support or vote for any Democrat who is not a perfectly idealized libertarian!

JohnJ on October 19, 2009 at 7:08 PM

I refuse to support or vote for any Democrat who is not a perfectly idealized libertarian!

JohnJ on October 19, 2009 at 7:08 PM

Okay I will bite…what is an “idealized libertarian”…this I gotta read.

right2bright on October 19, 2009 at 7:12 PM

After months of offering normal criticism of decisions of hers I’ve found to be in error, and being stretched over the rack for it, I’ve found it’s best merely to comment on the atmosphere of the site. Taking part has become an exercise in masochism if you aren’t towing the chosen line.

MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 7:06 PM

+1 Good point. It can become a swamp.

Dire Straits on October 19, 2009 at 7:12 PM

Really? Tsk tsk. “I don’t like” doesn’t equal “obnoxious”.

This was an obnoxious comment:

You think anything about Mitt is going to be off-limits, while anything Palin is fair game? LOL
ddrintn on October 19, 2009 at 5:47 PM

It was obnoxious because you made an idiotic inference (that I implied that Mitt was going to be off-limits) and followed it up with an LOL. Surely you can see that Mitt’s problems are very different from Palins (which is why I say he can’t be “Palinized”), which is not at all the same thing as saying that Mitt is invulnerable.

Huh? I wouldn’t be doing it. How many Mitt threads have I posted in and talked about how “unelectable” he is?
ddrintn on October 19, 2009 at 6:19 PM

I have no idea, but you if you’re just being a pundit carefully weighing the odds of electability, and don’t strongly dislike Mitt I’ll eat my proverbial hat.

Buy Danish on October 19, 2009 at 7:14 PM

After months of offering normal criticism of decisions of hers I’ve found to be in error, and being stretched over the rack for it, I’ve found it’s best merely to comment on the atmosphere of the site. Taking part has become an exercise in masochism if you aren’t towing the chosen line.

MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 7:06 PM

So you’ve given up? That’s not what I want to hear from anyone concerned about the future of this country. Whether for Palin or against, whether for Romney, Huckabee or someone else … we have three years to hash this out amongst ourselves without expectation of civility. I’ve seen more stones on football threads. This is the future of the nation and we need to get everything out.

I’m sure you can manage to take a few lumps for the team. The Palin supporters take their lumps and give it right back.

darwin on October 19, 2009 at 7:15 PM

Percy_Peabody on October 19, 2009 at 5:11 PM

That kind of personal attack is offensive. It reflects poorly on you and your position.

dogsoldier on October 19, 2009 at 5:38 PM

I agree Percy’s earlier remark was clearly over the line. I was embarrassed by it. Sarah does not need THAT kind of support.

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 7:17 PM

I’d like to see who supported whom in the primaries for 08…What’s your track record for picking?

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 7:18 PM

Frankly, I’m thinking of registering as a Democrat now for the sole purpose of being able to vote in their primary and cast a vote for any wacky left extremist that will dare run against Obama.

Rockygold on October 19, 2009 at 7:20 PM

Sarah Palin, the only true conservative

Tyrone Slothrop on October 19, 2009 at 6:38 PM

Gee, crazy of me to refer to some people as worshipers.

MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 6:48 PM

Whew, Huckabee and Mitt– there’s some CONSERVTIVES! Eh? Sorry, I have to get back to the Sacred Altar of Sarah Palin.

Tyrone Slothrop on October 19, 2009 at 7:22 PM

She is running. She will win.

BetseyRoss on October 19, 2009 at 5:41 PM

Yep, and you’ll be manning (or womaning) the 105 for her too.

:)

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 7:24 PM

Sorry, I have to get back to the Sacred Altar of Sarah Palin.

Tyrone Slothrop on October 19, 2009 at 7:22 PM

Bring the candles this time. We always forget the candles.

portlandon on October 19, 2009 at 7:26 PM

I’d like to see who supported whom in the primaries for 08…What’s your track record for picking?

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 7:18 PM

I supported Romney, I am sad to say. I will not do so again.

I am sure there are quite a few like me, meaning that 2008 was Romney’s high watermark in terms of GOP primary support.

Norwegian on October 19, 2009 at 7:27 PM

So you’ve given up? That’s not what I want to hear from anyone concerned about the future of this country. Whether for Palin or against, whether for Romney, Huckabee or someone else … we have three years to hash this out amongst ourselves without expectation of civility. I’ve seen more stones on football threads. This is the future of the nation and we need to get everything out.

I’m sure you can manage to take a few lumps for the team. The Palin supporters take their lumps and give it right back.

darwin on October 19, 2009 at 7:15 PM

Pal, I don’t know how long you’ve been here, but I’ve taken lumps for a few years here, over lots of things. It gets really, really tired when the same people and a few new ones every now and then jump down your throat because you don’t agree wholeheartedly with every single thing they do. Ever since Obama started steering the steamship USA into a cliff, people have been bitter and sore, and that’s fine. However, as much as going after them, we’ve been eating our own, more viciously and brutally.

Additionally, if you think the comments we make here have much of an impact on what will happen in the larger political arena, you’re overestimating by a long shot.

It’s been a long time here…and the site is very different from what it was over three years ago. I just call ‘em like I see ‘em. As said before, I’m a Palin supporter. I like her. She’s made wrong decisions. Some people disagree with me on those individual decisions, and that’s fine. What’s not fine is those who demagogue me and people who agree with me just because it shows Palin is flawed. She’s not the next Reagan. Nobody is the next Reagan. There is only one Reagan. Hopefully in the future there could be a Palin. Maybe a Bachmann, even.

Just be able to recognize the difference between an MSNBC drone making cracks about her moose hunting, and conservatives on a conservative website saying “I wish she’d take a harder stance on illegal immigration”.

MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 7:27 PM

News Flash: It’s very unclear whether a conservative can win. Center-right? Yes. Conservative? I doubt it. And no, McCain is not, and was not, center-right.

If the fools who voted for Huckabee actually supported Mitt, we might not be facing this Obamalypse Now. Sure, you might be complaining about Romney, but you wouldn’t be stocking up on ammo…

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 7:27 PM

First off, we’re not “anti” Palin. Most just don’t choose Palin as their first choice. Or don’t think she’s ready for the POTUS job. If anything, I’m more turned off by Palinista cultists like yourself than by Sarah Palin herself. Most of ya are birthers too, right? Go figure.

Second, we’re far from a “group”. Not choosing to worship at the feet of her holiness is about all we agree on.

JetBoy on October 19, 2009 at 5:48 PM

JetBoy,

Just cause we support her far more than you support whatever RINO flavor of the week you support, doesn’t mean we are birthers.

That is a VERY unfair low-blow.

You need to apologize for that.

You are just lashing out now.

You are upset because we don’t wilt when you make one post against her.

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 7:29 PM

Allahpundit, I find your lack of faith disturbing.

No VP slot. Palin will be President in 2013.

I have altered the deal. Pray I do not alter it further.

I am your father.

Brian1972 on October 19, 2009 at 7:30 PM

It’s been a long time here…and the site is very different from what it was over three years ago. I just call ‘em like I see ‘em. As said before, I’m a Palin supporter. I like her. She’s made wrong decisions. Some people disagree with me on those individual decisions, and that’s fine. What’s not fine is those who demagogue me and people who agree with me just because it shows Palin is flawed. She’s not the next Reagan. Nobody is the next Reagan. There is only one Reagan. Hopefully in the future there could be a Palin. Maybe a Bachmann, even.

MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 7:27 PM

Well said Mad. I enjoy your posts. Enjoy.

portlandon on October 19, 2009 at 7:32 PM

MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 7:27 PM

+ 100!! Excellent post and I don’t give the + 100 out very often.

Dire Straits on October 19, 2009 at 7:33 PM

You people pushing Palin for President in 2012 need to spend a little bit of time in CA, NY, FL, MA, NJ, CT, even TN and NC. PLEASE GET REAL.

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 5:50 PM

First of all, other than for raising money, and helping House candidates, CA, NY, MA, NJ, CT are not going to be won by ANY GOP candidate so don’t get your hopes up. Those are blue states.

TN is VERY red and Sarah will have NO problem winning that state. NC will go the way of Virginia if the GOP wins there.

FL is a battleground state and would go for Sarah if Obama’s economy is this bad in 2012.

The key states will be OH, FL, VA, and CO. You win those, you will get NC, IN, and NV and be POTUS.

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 7:35 PM

MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 7:27 PM

Then why the uncivil and presumptuous pigeonholing of SP supporters as “worshippers”? You may be the Big Dog, MC, of many years running (self image?) but you ought to leave the snark to JetBoy.

Tyrone Slothrop on October 19, 2009 at 7:36 PM

RON PAUL!!!11!!

RINO in Name Only on October 19, 2009 at 6:54 PM

Now that there’s funny.

chewydog on October 19, 2009 at 7:37 PM

Pal, I don’t know how long you’ve been here, but I’ve taken lumps for a few years here, over lots of things.

MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 7:27 PM

I’ve been on here since they opened for business. I’ve seen you dish out lumps as well. However, I do appreciate your response and agree with you … mostly.

darwin on October 19, 2009 at 7:37 PM

It was obnoxious because you made an idiotic inference (that I implied that Mitt was going to be off-limits) and followed it up with an LOL.

No, I said he was as vulnerable as Palin to smears. You’ll see.

Surely you can see that Mitt’s problems are very different from Palins (which is why I say he can’t be “Palinized”), which is not at all the same thing as saying that Mitt is invulnerable.

Mitt’s problems are definitely different from Palin’s. Pre-season polls aside, Palin starts out with a base of voters which Mitt won’t have. If she chooses to run, all Palin has to do is demonstrate she isn’t the bimbo that the caricature says. Romney has to show he’s a conservative.

Huh? I wouldn’t be doing it. How many Mitt threads have I posted in and talked about how “unelectable” he is?
ddrintn on October 19, 2009 at 6:19 PM
I have no idea, but you if you’re just being a pundit carefully weighing the odds of electability, and don’t strongly dislike Mitt I’ll eat my proverbial hat.

Buy Danish on October 19, 2009 at 7:14 PM

I’m no pundit. I can just tell loser sheen when I see it.

ddrintn on October 19, 2009 at 7:37 PM

Okay I will bite…what is an “idealized libertarian”…this I gotta read.

right2bright on October 19, 2009 at 7:12 PM

That’s the thing, there is no such animal. All I’m really saying is that I refuse to support the Democrats. I was just poking fun at the people who refuse to vote for anyone less perfect than Jesus Christ.

JohnJ on October 19, 2009 at 7:39 PM

I am your father.

Brian1972 on October 19, 2009 at 7:30 PM

This is confusing. Should we take Brian out back and beat the crap out of him, or buy him a drink?

Rovin on October 19, 2009 at 7:40 PM

I was just poking fun at the people who refuse to vote for anyone less perfect than Jesus Christ.

JohnJ on October 19, 2009 at 7:39 PM

And that is a perfect definition of an “idealized libertarian”…excellent.

right2bright on October 19, 2009 at 7:41 PM

^ And “loser sheen” isn’t about Romney personally, whom I admire and for whom I voted in the primaries last year. I just know that Romney will not be able to get out an enthusiastic following to vote for him. It’s going to take more than anti-Obama sentiment, trust me.

ddrintn on October 19, 2009 at 7:41 PM

IF….. there is a Republic left by 2012 and there hasn’t been a economic recovery by then then almost any GOPer could take him out.

BUT….our families support depends on the issues and their positions on the issues. Period, end of story.

So far…….it’s a no-brainer for us.

PappyD61 on October 19, 2009 at 7:41 PM

OH, FL, VA, and CO. You win those, you will get NC, IN, and NV

Yes, and I think Romney-Palin would be very competitive in all of those, plus MI, MN, and a few other places where someone linked to the auto industry (his dad ran American Motors), with an economic background would get votes. Palin’s background, albeit impressive, is too thin; you don’t want to match Obama in that department (in the eyes of average voters; not us)

Face it: for every person convinced that Obama is taking our World, our Republic, and our economy to hell, there is another who will buy the BS that it’s “Bush and the Republicans fault.”
.
2012 will require national money, national experience, and perseverance. Palin: maybe in 2020 (or even 2016), but not this time.

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 7:43 PM

This is confusing. Should we take Brian out back and beat the crap out of him, or buy him a drink?

Rovin on October 19, 2009 at 7:40 PM

As long as the drink comes first, you can try both!

Brian1972 on October 19, 2009 at 7:43 PM

You people pushing Palin for President in 2012 need to spend a little bit of time in CA, NY, FL, MA, NJ, CT, even TN and NC. PLEASE GET REAL.

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 5:50 PM

Okay, i HAVE to correct this monstrosity.

THIS COMMENT IS CRAZY.

Why should any R need California or New Jersey to win the white house? What is this, 1896?

Let’s do some POLITICAL MATH.

AWFUL McCain lost to Obama 365-173. McCain lost 9 bush states (3 in midwest: OH, IN, IA; 3 in southeast: NC, VA, FL; 3 in west: CO, NM, NV) and lost 1 more electoral vote from omaha

So at the WORST, the gop starts at 173 ‘safe’ seats (including missouri).

Now the census helps us, so we get 7 minimum ‘extra’ EVs if we won the same states.

So Palin/GOP is at 180 without doing anything. Got it? She needs 90 to win.

Hey, let’s throw in the omaha vote to Palin. So now she needs 89 to win.

Of the ‘flipped’ states, clearly the main anomalies were north carolina (obama won by what, 4000 votes?), so that’s +16, and indiana (went for bush by 20 points) for +11 evotes. We can reasonably assume with a bad eeconomy NC and IN go red.

So now palin needs not 89, but 89-16-11=62 votes to win.

62 remaining Electoral votes.

Well florida is 28, leaving 34 needed EVs.

Virginia (Trending red) is 13, leaving 23 EVs.

Colorado is 9, leaving 14 EVs.

Ohio is 18, making palin president.

Hey, let’s pretend for a minute that she even loses missouri. (-10). Then all she needs is Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, ANYTHING (iowa, nevada, wisconsin… anything).

So let me repeat: Palin doesn’t have to replicate BUsh 2000 or Bush 2004, because of the inherent growing red state EVs in the census.

All Palin has to do is “show up” to get back IN & NC, and after that, it’s finding 62 EV’s: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado would do it.

And that’s leaving Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin on the table (possible ‘reddish’ purple states), for a woman that has a 53% approval rating with hispanics.

YOUR MOVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

battleoflepanto1571 on October 19, 2009 at 7:45 PM

Then why the uncivil and presumptuous pigeonholing of SP supporters as “worshippers”?

Tyrone Slothrop on October 19, 2009 at 7:36 PM

Because some of her supporters attack anyone who offers reasonable criticism of her. If you won’t allow any criticism whatsoever, clearly you think she’s above it. That’s worship. Don’t like the label? Don’t fit it.

MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 7:45 PM

Yes, and I think Romney-Palin would be very competitive in all of those…

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 7:43 PM

There won’t be a Romney/Palin ticket. Romney/whoever 2012, Palin/whoever in 2016.

ddrintn on October 19, 2009 at 7:46 PM

I supported Romney, I am sad to say. I will not do so again.

I am sure there are quite a few like me, meaning that 2008 was Romney’s high watermark in terms of GOP primary support.

Norwegian on October 19, 2009 at 7:27 PM

I also supported Romney and have serious reservations about doing so again. His track record on Romney care does not look so good at this point, and I’m not happy with his support of TARP and the bank bail outs. He seems to be too much of a Washington insider for my liking.

KickandSwimMom on October 19, 2009 at 7:47 PM

I’ve been on here since they opened for business. I’ve seen you dish out lumps as well.

darwin on October 19, 2009 at 7:37 PM

You bet your ass. Some good ones, too. After a while, though…the numbers wear you down. Even the 300 were defeated.

MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 7:48 PM

2012 will require national money, national experience, and perseverance. Palin: maybe in 2020 (or even 2016), but not this time.

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 7:43 PM

??? Palin has the ability to rake in dough beyond the RNC’s wildest dreams. She has as much “national experience” (whatever that is) as Romney or Huckabee. Perseverance in what? Fighting off the MSM?

darwin on October 19, 2009 at 7:48 PM

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 7:43 PM

Still can’t figure out why I’m supposed to care about what NJ and CA think of Palin. Read my math post above.

(and i did an error anyway, 34-13=21, so it’s even easier for her to win, plus 2 extra EVs from NC and FL if she wins those, means 19 EVs wins the presidency)

-Flip back the anomalies of NC & IN (heck ron paul could do this)
-Win VA, FL, OH = PRESIDENT

That’s it.

Throw in a maine district for a bonus.

NOw tell me why we worry about how Palin plays in Patterson, NJ???????????

battleoflepanto1571 on October 19, 2009 at 7:49 PM

Polls this far out are worthless.

The political landscape is changing monthly, if not weekly, these days (I’m utterly shocked at how long ago November 2008 seems).

ObamaCare, the Copenhagen treaty, Cap & Tax are all potential game-changers — and they’re all slated to take place between now and the end of the year! And 2010 will be, of course, a game-changer. And who knows what new bombshells Beck, Breitbart, Limbaugh, or someone else will drop on the Administration between now and 2012.

With so many large, significant variables still up-in-the-air between now and the start of campaigning in 2011/12, any 2012 polling is statistically-insignificant speculation.

Harpazo on October 19, 2009 at 7:50 PM

You bet your ass. Some good ones, too. After a while, though…the numbers wear you down. Even the 300 were defeated.

MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 7:48 PM

They didn’t have Palin, but I get your point. I used to spar at lefty websites and the constant onslaught was exahusting.

darwin on October 19, 2009 at 7:50 PM

Whoever is President next absolutely must nominate Iowahawk as Sec of Transportation.

That will be the the coolest Presidential Limo in history!

Brian1972 on October 19, 2009 at 7:52 PM

To tell you the truth this is much ado about nothing in my opinion. Why? Well basically I think the reason why Palin isn’t faring as well against Romney or Huckabee at the moment is the fact that apart from her comments on Face book, the impending release of her book and the odd paid speech she has been keeping a rather low profile lately. Conversely I think Huckabee has been doing so well because he has had his mug on TV every other day and is actively getting involved in the argument in a very public manner. Like wise Romney, even though hes has been keeping a low profile during the health care debate has been doing a lot of speaking engagements and fundraising events that has served to raise his profile amongst likely GOP voters.

When Palin starts doing interviews for her book, making Public appearances, Giving speeches, actively helping candidates for 2010, basically getting out into the electorate and elaborating what she is all about to voters I think you will see Palins numbers in relation to Romney and Huckabee improve significantly. Remember its early days yet and a lot can happen between now and 2012.

Hellrider on October 19, 2009 at 7:54 PM

texasconserv on October 19, 2009 at 6:11 PM

But, if he wins you have the same problem as Romney. You are now stuck with him as POTUS.

Have fun as government continues to grow.

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 7:55 PM

They didn’t have Palin, but I get your point.

darwin on October 19, 2009 at 7:50 PM

You win. *applauds*

MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 7:55 PM

Sarah Louise Palin hmmmm hmmmmm hmmmm
Sarah Louise Palin hmmmm hmmmmm hmmmm
Sarah Louise Palin hmmmm hmmmmm hmmmm

Mandatory curriculum in all public schools starting Jan. ’13.

Brian1972 on October 19, 2009 at 7:56 PM

Let me use another sports analogy. The results of these “professional” polls can be likened to sports reporters making their pre-season predictions who is going to win the Super Bowl based on only attending Huckabee’s and Romney’s camp and not having access to Sarah’s camp, thus skewing their prediction of success to Huckabee and Romney.

IMHO too many respondents have formulated an opinion on Sarah Palin based on her “going dark” or not being on TV recently or because of her previous caricature from the 2008 campaign and have not bothered to “accees her training camp”.

At least with internet polls like the one at HA in the Huckabee Romney Palin thread each person has access to what he/she believes about the candidate and those who come out to vote feel passionately about their favorite.

I might ask why is Huckabee still polling at 8% in this internet poll. Perhaps it may be that his supporters are not as passionate as they should be. I don’t know.

And we know how most Super Bowl predictions turn out. Turn all the lights out!

technopeasant on October 19, 2009 at 7:57 PM

MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 7:45 PM

I suggest you haven’t been exposed to my thinking enough to decide what label I “fit” or don’t “fit”.

My criticism of Allahpundit is that his relentless sniping serves no good purpose at this point in the game, and in fact is bad, in its miniscule way, for our effort. Along about May 2012 will be the time to jump on Mitt’s or Mike’s– or Sarah’s– bandwagon and devil take the hindmost. But right now AP only serves to make the bad guys stronger.

Tyrone Slothrop on October 19, 2009 at 8:01 PM

That’s a depressing headline. Not because of what it shows, but because I don’t want the 2012 campaign to start yet.

Slublog on October 19, 2009 at 8:03 PM

You guys need to get out of conservative dreamland.

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 6:12 PM

No. YOU need to get in it.

How do you think Reagan won?

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 8:04 PM

Monday, October 19, 2009
Report: Sarah Palin to Appear at Wisconsin Right to Life Benefit (Updated)

Wisconsin Right to Life Presents Sarah Palin

Yes, it’s true! Sarah Palin is coming to Milwaukee to appear at a benefit for the educational efforts of Wisconsin Right to Life. The event is Friday, November 6 at 7:30pm at the Wisconsin Exposition Center at State Fair Park, Hall B. You won’t want to miss this exciting opportunity to hear Sarah Palin!

Update from TR: The News-Leader reports that “Sarah Palin will speak on patriotism, citizenship and civic engagement at College of the Ozarks at 7 p.m. Dec. 2 in the Keeter Gymnasium.”

“Sarah Palin is a great example of an individual who became involved in her small town community and whose efforts and success eventually placed her in the national spotlight,” said Sue Head, executive director of The Keeter Center for Character Education. “We are looking forward to hosting her at the college.”

That is two dates, Wisconsin and Missouri.

So it begins.

Brian1972 on October 19, 2009 at 8:07 PM

Django on October 19, 2009 at 6:20 PM

Oh sorry. No hard feelings. :)

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 8:09 PM

Unlike Romney or Huckabee Palin has done no campaigning on a national levelthis year. She made one RTL speech in Indiana, did a charity walk in NY state and a speech in Hong Kong. Unlike H or R she has not indictaed even if she is interested in being President. Yet AP canot get her out of his head – she eats away at him like a slimmer, more attractive Meghan McCain. His posts about her are part of his therapy, his voyage to self discovery. They are clever and witty but politically they can be safely ignored.

It is likely that after November she will begin to make her presence felt and during 2010 start flying her colours for various candidates. Her poll numbers at this time next year will have a far greater significance for whatever it is she wants to do.

callingallcomets on October 19, 2009 at 8:10 PM

20 Points!!!

*Brad kindly passes out a couple of boxes of tissues for the Paliniacs*

Bradky on October 19, 2009 at 8:11 PM

My criticism of Allahpundit is that his relentless sniping serves no good purpose at this point in the game, and in fact is bad, in its miniscule way, for our effort. Along about May 2012 will be the time to jump on Mitt’s or Mike’s– or Sarah’s– bandwagon and devil take the hindmost. But right now AP only serves to make the bad guys stronger.

Tyrone Slothrop on October 19, 2009 at 8:01 PM

…by posting a poll, that he didn’t make? A poll from Rasmussen, considered one of the most even-handed polling outfits? Here’s my key issue: if the poll had give the races to Palin, most of the people here, probably you included, would be in smug gloating bliss talking about how the Sarahcuda couldn’t be stopped. Most here who whine and moan that AP is doing his job only do so when the news he delivers isn’t good.

Some don’t. Some, like me, either avoid the polls or point out that they don’t matter either way, because they don’t. Some people, though, act like Allah just raped their dog when he posts a poll they don’t like. Stop killing the messenger.

MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 8:16 PM

including bringing anamolies of IN & NC (that are RED) back into the fold that would be red in 2012 if ron paul ran, all palin needs is:

MCCAIN STATES + VIRGINIA + FLORIDA + OHIO + COLORADO

She can do it.

battleoflepanto1571 on October 19, 2009 at 8:17 PM

Oh my. Some people seem very worried about Sarah Palin.

rrpjr on October 19, 2009 at 8:21 PM

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 6:42 PM

Mitt TALKS right of center. That’s why he did not get the nomination.

If Republicans were not so nervous about him, he could have won.

Flipping and a flopping is bad for a GOP candidate. Not as bad for a Dem candidate in their primary.

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 8:22 PM

You guys need to get out of conservative dreamland.

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 6:12 PM

No. YOU need to get in it.

How do you think Reagan won?

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 8:04 PM

He won by articulating a conservative vision in a way that appealed to moderates and centrists, and even disaffected democrats. He did not win by exciting the base and alienating everyone else. Palin has risked doing exactly that with her performance in interviews, and with her resignation. She has a lot of work to do to win the center.

RINO in Name Only on October 19, 2009 at 8:23 PM

Oh my. Some people seem very worried about Sarah Palin.

rrpjr on October 19, 2009 at 8:21 PM

We are worried. But not about Sarah. We are worried about our country and in our gut we know it will take someone brave and selfless to fight government growth.

At this time, only Sarah appears to have the past record and her words to support that she would try to bring a Reaganite agenda to her administration.

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 8:24 PM

He won by articulating a conservative vision in a way that appealed to moderates and centrists, and even disaffected democrats. He did not win by exciting the base and alienating everyone else. Palin has risked doing exactly that with her performance in interviews, and with her resignation. She has a lot of work to do to win the center.

RINO in Name Only on October 19, 2009 at 8:23 PM

Exactly. My guess based on her Hong Kong speech and the fact that she came of age during the Age of Reagan.

She will appeal to the middle enough to move 5% back to the GOP. Most of that will be due to the horrible Obama 1st term.

Her challenge will be to show that she is weighty enough to be POTUS just like Obama had to prove the same to get elected.

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 8:27 PM

…by posting a poll, that he didn’t make?
MadisonConservative on October 19, 2009 at 8:16 PM

If it were his purpose just to keep us informed of the political winds, I might agree with you. But clearly he relishes anything that casts Palin in a bad light. If you can’t see that you’re blind.

Tyrone Slothrop on October 19, 2009 at 8:27 PM

He won by articulating a conservative vision in a way that appealed to moderates and centrists, and even disaffected democrats

RINO in Name Only on October 19, 2009 at 8:23 PM

You have a point there. Notice that Sarah Palin will be in Wisconsin next month, then Missouri in Dec.

That is not Texas and South Carolina. Battlegrounds, baby.

Brian1972 on October 19, 2009 at 8:28 PM

P.S. Madison Conservative.

Do me the favor of ceasing to tell me what I think.

Tyrone Slothrop on October 19, 2009 at 8:29 PM

But clearly he relishes anything that casts Palin in a bad light. If you can’t see that you’re blind.

You are sounding like the WH in its attempts to stifle Foxnews.
Only heart, roses and lollipops can be spoken of Palin?

Bradky on October 19, 2009 at 8:30 PM

RINO in Name Only on October 19, 2009 at 6:13 PM

Fair enough. But then people ought not use the fringe comments of one lone cultist to disparage an entire group.

Nevertheless, I think in this case, the hammer might be warranted. Unlike most, I think AP is alpha enough to take most of the slings and arrows, but Percy was just out of line. You don’t go into someone’s house and call them names.

NoLeftTurn on October 19, 2009 at 8:32 PM

So it begins.

Brian1972 on October 19, 2009 at 8:07 PM

So it does.

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 8:33 PM

Why does anyone even care what polls say 3+ years out from the election?
Let’s see, who was way out in front in 2005 and how did they fare?

lonestar1 on October 19, 2009 at 8:33 PM

@Bradky on October 19, 2009 at 8:30 PM

Well I guess vice-dork Bradky wants in on this. A lot of people here have criticized Palin while hoping she succeeds. I’m for that if it helps get a conservative in the White House. AP’s criticism’s are for the sole purpose of damaging her, and by doing so he damages all of us. Kill the messenger, my ass. This is more like killing the executioner.

Tyrone Slothrop on October 19, 2009 at 8:38 PM

Why does anyone even care what polls say 3+ years out from the election?
Let’s see, who was way out in front in 2005 and how did they fare?

lonestar1 on October 19, 2009 at 8:33 PM

Do you accept the results regarding health care opposition run by Rasmussen? If you do, you should have no beef with this poll.

Bradky on October 19, 2009 at 8:40 PM

Just for the record, isn’t there an old Aesop’s fable about a tortoise and a hare in a race? The hare got so far ahead that he stopped and did other things, thinking the tortoise would never catch up.

The tortoise plodded on, slow but steady. By the time the hare realized the tortoise was ahead of him, even he couldn’t catch up before the tortoise crossed the finish line.

The moral of the story is slow and steady wins the race. Like how the fascist leftards got where they are today.

platypus on October 19, 2009 at 8:42 PM

AP’s criticism’s are for the sole purpose of damaging her, and by doing so he damages all of us.

And he told you this when?

Bradky on October 19, 2009 at 8:42 PM

ParisParamus on October 19, 2009 at 6:59 PM

Sarah has already been used once by a RINO. I doubt she’ll do that again.

Besides, she’ll Romney anyway if he’s foolish to run against her.

The best combo is the Reaganite Palin with the country clubber Romney to best match the same path to victory as in 1980.

And your right on COMPETENCE being needed but this is the GOP and that’s a given for anybody the GOP puts up there against Obama. Sarah has proven her competence but Romney proved his incompetence with Romneycare.

Sarah NEVER would have proposed such a monstrosity in Alaska.

NEVER.

Not only is she more competent, but she has more guts to take on the spending addiction.

I see nothing in Romney for this.

He is better as STAFF, not LINE.

Sapwolf on October 19, 2009 at 8:43 PM

Sarah NEVER would have proposed such a monstrosity in Alaska.

We will never know for sure since quit to make the speaking rounds.

Bradky on October 19, 2009 at 8:44 PM

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