New Jersey cooking employment books for Corzine re-election?

posted at 2:55 pm on October 14, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

Jim Geraghty looks at the trend of job numbers in New Jersey and sees a pattern developing since the gubernatorial campaign began in earnest.  Initial employment estimates look positive, and Governor Jon Corzine hails them as a demonstration of his leadership.  When they get revised later, however, the revisions have reduced the number of private-sector jobs for each of the last five months:

In August, the state department declared that “employment in New Jersey grew in July, led by a gain of 13,000 jobs at private sector companies.” The state’s numbers showed a decline of only 7,100 public-sector jobs, meaning that as a whole, 5,900 more New Jersey residents were going to work than had gone the previous month. It was great news for the state, and for Corzine, coming in a month when the nation had lost 247,000 jobs overall. …

But September’s release offered some below-the-fold revisions. New Jersey’s private-sector job gain in July was 5,600 jobs, far short of the initial 13,000 claim; the net result was that 500 fewer New Jerseyans were going to work than the previous month. And while the governor had claimed to be holding a tough line on spending, the total number of jobs in the public sector was revised upward — from 643,300 to 644,300.

There were other oddities in that August release. The state claimed that 6,200 jobs had been created in leisure and hospitality fields in July. One could easily imagine hiring in Jersey shore communities, or at amusement parks, picking up during the summer, but this dramatic growth came as the nation as a whole lost 64,000 jobs in this field, according to the federal Department of Labor. The revised number, released in September, reflected 1,100 fewer new jobs than initially claimed. …

However, there is a strange consistency to recent revisions. The state’s estimates of how many residents were employed in the private sector were revised down in the months of July, June, May, and April. (May’s initial private-sector employment number was revised downward by 600 jobs, while April’s number was revised down by 4,300.) The state’s private-sector number was last revised upward in March, long before campaign season began.

One might suspect that some larger, unforeseen trend is throwing off the department’s calculations, but the numbers from neighboring New York and Pennsylvania aren’t consistent with this theory.

There is always substantial risk in using initial estimates on government statistics.  Later data usually changes the final numbers, but not always the trend.  In fact, it seems unusual that any state would have its indicators reflect positively on initial publication and then skew negative in the final data for even two months in a row.  When it happens five times in a row, and in the middle of a political campaign, it smells somewhat fishy.

Jim isn’t the only one looking askance at New Jersey’s estimates.  Republicans in the state legislature want to hold hearings on why the Corzine administration has overestimated private sector job creation “by 132 percent.”  Thus far, the Labor Committee chair, Democrat Joseph Egan, has not responded to that request.

If New Jersey wants an informed electorate to make a good choice in next month’s gubernatorial election, then the governing class should act to ensure confidence in what should be non-partisan analysis of the state’s economic condition.  The fact that Egan appears unconcerned about those questions should tell Garden State voters which party wants an informed electorate, and which relies on keeping it uninformed.


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Lived in NJ for many years…this is new?

PatriotRider on October 14, 2009 at 2:59 PM

Did he break out or something?? Why isn’t he in jail?

cjk on October 14, 2009 at 2:59 PM

I spent a few days in New Jersey last week, and it is ugly. Everyone I spoke to is out to dump Corzine but seem to give in to the fact that this will be a crooked election.

Hening on October 14, 2009 at 2:59 PM

CHRISTIE is going to win by 3

bank it.

Dagget voters move to christie in the end; corzine voters stay home

battleoflepanto1571 on October 14, 2009 at 3:00 PM

test

ArmyAunt on October 14, 2009 at 3:01 PM

battleoflepanto1571 on October 14, 2009 at 3:00 PM

Nope. Bottom hasn’t been reached yet.

lorien1973 on October 14, 2009 at 3:01 PM

Just look at Jersey City’s track record……every Mayor has spent time in jail for the last 100 Years

PatriotRider on October 14, 2009 at 3:01 PM

Any truth to the rumor that, before the election, he’s going to rename it New Jobsey?

LibTired on October 14, 2009 at 3:01 PM

CJ has sent his army of minions over here to find “racist” posts.
Which imo his own people are posting under different names here.

ArmyAunt on October 14, 2009 at 3:01 PM

Why any idiot votes for bigger government is beyond me. DO they like this kind of shennigans?

WashJeff on October 14, 2009 at 3:02 PM

When it happens five times in a row, and in the middle of a political campaign, it smells somewhat fishy.

oopsie

—-culture of corruption strikes again

cmsinaz on October 14, 2009 at 3:03 PM

Corzine’s from Wall Street — based on what Democrats say about capitalism and the leaders of the big Wall Street firms, they should be all over him for cooking the books.

jon1979 on October 14, 2009 at 3:03 PM

My regards to whoever photo-shopped out the bars from his picture..good job!

cjk on October 14, 2009 at 3:04 PM

ArmyAunt on October 14, 2009 at 3:01 PM

I’ve always wanted to be comment of the day somewhere!

lorien1973 on October 14, 2009 at 3:06 PM

When I cook the books, I like to add a little hypocracy, a dash of jail juice, and some grated fraud.

HornetSting on October 14, 2009 at 3:07 PM

cjk on October 14, 2009 at 3:04 PM

Haahahahahaha.

LibTired on October 14, 2009 at 3:08 PM

Unethical ………..

We better look into his finances. I heard he has been Rangelfied!

BigMike252 on October 14, 2009 at 3:08 PM

I really hope Christie wins and if he does, I further hope he lowers these absurd property taxes. I know for a fact Corzine will not as evidenced by his time in office.

Dash on October 14, 2009 at 3:09 PM

Here’s one I just found out today. Corzine was born, raised and educated in…..CHICAGO. Now that ‘splains a lot, Lucy.

NJ Red on October 14, 2009 at 3:09 PM

Prediction:

Aug, Sept and Oct 2010 will show 100 bazillion new jobs created every month in every state, each paying $200,000 a year.

angryed on October 14, 2009 at 3:09 PM

Gee…I just can’t believe that New Jersey would do anything to skew the figures…it would ruin their reputation.
HAHAHA, I crack myself up….

right2bright on October 14, 2009 at 3:10 PM

Initial employment estimates look positive, and Governor Jon Corzine hails them as a demonstration of his leadership. When they get revised later, however, the revisions have reduced the number of private-sector jobs for each of the last five months

How does this help when a voter goes the poll with large numbers of people they know out of work? The reality is people grasp the actual numbers no matter how much a mobbed up governor tries to lie.

highhopes on October 14, 2009 at 3:10 PM

So, any chance the media is gonna look at this?
Naahhh.

Iblis on October 14, 2009 at 3:11 PM

CJ has sent his army of minions over here to find “racist” posts.
Which imo his own people are posting under different names here.

ArmyAunt on October 14, 2009 at 3:01 PM

Lynch him!!!

right2bright on October 14, 2009 at 3:11 PM

Question-If FOX reports this is it a lie?

rjoco1 on October 14, 2009 at 3:12 PM

Why any idiot votes for bigger government is beyond me. DO they like this kind of shennigans?

WashJeff on October 14, 2009 at 3:02 PM

Because they want to be absolved from all responsibility in their lives. They don’t care what goes on in the background as long as their (welfare, unemployment, government grant etc…) keep coming in. They think the money comes from their friends in government. They have know idea where it really comes from, they just want theirs.

Tommy_G on October 14, 2009 at 3:12 PM

I really hope Christie wins. I can’t take this place anymore the way it is. You could almost have your legislative gatherings in prison for God’s sake. But the people of NJ never cease to amaze me. They’d probably elect Turnpike Bathroom McGreevey if he ran again.

NJ Red on October 14, 2009 at 3:12 PM

When did this site become Hotel CA? I can’t log out.

alliebobbitt on October 14, 2009 at 3:13 PM

Everyone I spoke to is out to dump Corzine but seem to give in to the fact that this will be a crooked election.

Hening on October 14, 2009 at 2:59 PM

NJ is just the east coast version of Chicago.

highhopes on October 14, 2009 at 3:14 PM

The Jersey Guys radio show yesterday claimed to have an internal memo from Corzine’s campaign manager asking the heads of various NJ government agencies to “cook the books” essentially, showing increases in jobs and such.

If Corzine doesn’t lose, I’m packing up the family and moving to Pennsy. All hope will be lost for NJ if Corzine remains Gov.

kutabeach on October 14, 2009 at 3:14 PM

So, any chance the media is gonna look at this?
Naahhh.

Iblis on October 14, 2009 at 3:11 PM

And the media is not known for their basic understanding of arithmetic.
They think a proposed increase if fact; a proposal increase of taxes of let’s say 6%, and when the actual increase is 4%, it is recorded as a 2% decrease in taxes…if it is a liberal…if it is a conservative, it becomes a 50% increase over the existing tax base.

right2bright on October 14, 2009 at 3:14 PM

When did this site become Hotel CA? I can’t log out.

alliebobbitt on October 14, 2009 at 3:13 PM

I had that problem, I restarted, then clicked on “login” and changed my password, then logged out, restarted and it was fine.

right2bright on October 14, 2009 at 3:16 PM

rjoco1 on October 14, 2009 at 3:12 PM

No it would be a half-truth racist distortion of facts meant to smear the precedent.

cjk on October 14, 2009 at 3:16 PM

NJ is just the east coast version of Chicago.

highhopes on October 14, 2009 at 3:14 PM

Correct, and as I just said, that is where Corzine is from originally.

NJ Red on October 14, 2009 at 3:17 PM

Wait, it wasn’t Corzine’s campaign manager, it was his deputy chief of staff, Mark Matzen.

link: http://www.nj1015.com/personalities/casey-rossi_memo.shtm

Taxpayer money being used to help re-elect the Gov. Shameful.

kutabeach on October 14, 2009 at 3:17 PM

NJ is just the east coast version of Chicago.

highhopes on October 14, 2009 at 3:14 PM

Correct, and as I just said, that is where Corzine is from originally.

NJ Red on October 14, 2009 at 3:17 PM

With all due respect, NJ was first therefore Chicago is a midwest version of NJ.

cjk on October 14, 2009 at 3:20 PM

Well, now we know what Jon-boy was doing instead of bothering to show up to the debate last night with the other 2 candidates.

UncleOlaf on October 14, 2009 at 3:20 PM

Correct, and as I just said, that is where Corzine is from originally.

NJ Red on October 14, 2009 at 3:17 PM

I guess this is Chicago’s way of giving something back.

cjk on October 14, 2009 at 3:24 PM

With all due respect, NJ was first therefore Chicago is a midwest version of NJ.

cjk on October 14, 2009 at 3:20 PM

GOOD POINT!! We win. I think.

NJ Red on October 14, 2009 at 3:26 PM

The more they lie, the worse it will go for them. Unemployment is now significant enough that everyone has someone (or more than one someone)in their own family who has been affected. You know if your loved one is still unemployed.

Queen0fCups on October 14, 2009 at 3:27 PM

Its Corzine…whaddya expect? Honesty?

Corzine…perpetuating the New Jersey stereotype one corrupt act after another. Can’t allow Chicago to get all the laurels.

coldwarrior on October 14, 2009 at 3:28 PM

GOOD POINT!! We win. I think.

NJ Red on October 14, 2009 at 3:26 PM

Whoa! Whoa! Whoa! New York Media labeled us the windy city for aledgedly blowing smoke up people’s arses to get the Columbia Exposition. This labeled could have easily be placed on Nj given that it is next door, but it was not. We have know how to fudge things for longer and have done a better job.

WashJeff on October 14, 2009 at 3:30 PM

For the life of me there’s one think I just can’t figure out; why is his name Jon and not Tony? Maybe Jon is just a nickname?

cjk on October 14, 2009 at 3:31 PM

cjk on October 14, 2009 at 3:31 PM

It what all the hookers in Trenton call him. /

coldwarrior on October 14, 2009 at 3:33 PM

If I opened a dictionary, encyclopedia, or other lexicon looking for the definition of “Crooked Politician” I would fully expect to see an illustration of Governor Jon S. Corzine front and center. If Corzine wins it is simply because New Jersey is as bad as everyone claims!

IntheNet on October 14, 2009 at 3:34 PM

It what all the hookers in Trenton call him. /

coldwarrior on October 14, 2009 at 3:33 PM

Hahahahahah!!! Tony Corzine…fuggedaboudit.

NJ Red on October 14, 2009 at 3:41 PM

When the Newark Star-Ledger breaks the news about what Corzine’s Republican opponent has been doing secretly for the past 10 years, the public will be revulsed to such an extent that they will re-elect Corzine no matter what happens.

The entire sordid affair is being assembled as we speak, with a little help from communications gathered from faxes received from Kinkos over the last several weeks.

jay12 on October 14, 2009 at 3:44 PM

Wait a minute. If higher employment figures lead to being reelected, then why do these liberal politicians do everything in their power to destroy job creation? They only love job creation when election time rolls around. Not real job creation just paper-mache or “saved” ones. Ugh

frizzyb on October 14, 2009 at 3:45 PM

For a number of years, I was a senior executive at a large energy company. In addition to oil and gas production and pipelines, we owned a number of U.S. refineries, one of which was in N.J.

It was our least profitable refinery, by far. From excessive state and local taxation to high union labor costs to unnecessary state regulatory demands, you name it, N.J. was the most inhospitable business environment I ever encountered.

Even worse than California, believe it or not, where we also had refinery assets.

Hence, whenever we would contemplate refinery expansions or Improvements, NJ would be the last on our list.

And, under Corzine, matters have only worsened.

Good luck to all in the Garden State come November.

TXUS on October 14, 2009 at 3:45 PM

Two words: Goldman Sachs.

Chlorian Theoreticus on October 14, 2009 at 3:46 PM

It’s Bush’s fault, and if that fails, blame Rush!

capejasmine on October 14, 2009 at 3:49 PM

Deevolution … democrats are taking us from the Enlightenment into the Dark Ages, Part Deux.

darwin on October 14, 2009 at 3:51 PM

No matter what happens, Corzine will not lose with grace. He will contest it until some judge says he’s the winner. I predict lost ballots suddenly found in car trunks, in the corner, over here, over there…and 95% of them will be for Corzine!

Christie by a mere 1% with lots of lawsuits ensuing.

SouthernGent on October 14, 2009 at 4:05 PM

If Corzine doesn’t lose, I’m packing up the family and moving to Pennsy.

kutabeach on October 14, 2009 at 3:14 PM

You are definitely a Jersey guy (or girl).

I grew up in Jersey (still have many relatives there) and now live in Delaware. In my life, I have noticed that no one from any of the surrounding states refers to PA as “Pennsy”. Just the people from NJ.

You have passed the test. Now get out there and vote that crook Corzine out of office!

UltimateBob on October 14, 2009 at 4:30 PM

When did this site become Hotel CA? I can’t log out.

alliebobbitt on October 14, 2009 at 3:13 PM

I had that problem, I restarted, then clicked on “login” and changed my password, then logged out, restarted and it was fine.

right2bright on October 14, 2009 at 3:16 PM

I had the same problem this morning. Finally resolved it by clicking the link in the e-mail that I got confirming my registration here, and logging in from there.

Must be a problem with Hot Air. The whole site looks different today. For example, comment “preview” doesn’t have a border around it, and the font looks different.

UltimateBob on October 14, 2009 at 4:34 PM

Ex Goldman guy cooking the books, I’m shocked!

Octavia on October 14, 2009 at 4:35 PM

If he has created jobs, it isn’t around here.

Beaglemom on October 14, 2009 at 4:45 PM

CHRISTIE is going to win by 3

bank it.

I think more than that.

HondaV65 on October 14, 2009 at 5:20 PM

?

Donut on October 14, 2009 at 6:07 PM

Today’s Star Ledger has a front page article reporting that they have in their possession an email that Corzine’s chief of staff sent to members of his cabinet instructing them to highlight all job creation events they could find…even if they had to “stretch” to do so. New Jersey politics as usual!

RAZ on October 14, 2009 at 6:08 PM

Lie loudly at first! Whisper unreported corrections later. Trumpet made up success; you can expect reporters to do their job… their real job of propaganda support.

AnotherOpinion on October 14, 2009 at 8:32 PM

New Jersey, Democrat State, Corruption!!??! Shocking, simply shocking!

Jeff from WI on October 14, 2009 at 8:56 PM

Cooking the books? I’m shocked! /s

Red State State of Mind on October 14, 2009 at 9:07 PM

I can’t take this place anymore the way it is.
NJ Red on October 14, 2009 at 3:12 PM

If Corzine doesn’t lose, I’m packing up the family and moving to Pennsy. All hope will be lost for NJ if Corzine remains Gov.
kutabeach on October 14, 2009 at 3:14 PM

I’ve lived in NJ all my 53 years. My hubby & family can’t take this state any longer, so moving to New Hampshire in 2 weeks. NJ is a lost cause period, time to get out if you can. We’re so sick & tired of all the corruption in Trenton. Voting for either D or R doesn’t matter because both parties are corrupt. Socialist NJ has been in the red for a long time and it will crash. It’s the middle class folks leaving the state and the very rich, very poor remain behind.

corvettelady on October 14, 2009 at 9:11 PM

When are the southern 10 counties in New Jersey going to get their act together and secede from North Jersey and it’s cavalcade of corrupt assklowns?

South Jersey could hook up with Delaware because they both are very similar; Wilmington sorta = Camden. Both are heavily agricultural. Both have shore resort areas heavily dependent on summer tourism. And Atlantic City’s casino revenues would rightfully go back to the area it was intended to benefit – SOUTH Jersey.

CatchAll on October 14, 2009 at 10:40 PM

Since Corzine came into office Employment did go up.

He created new positions at the top of every gov. office and installed his buddies in them, thus ruining the flow of everything in the state. I know people for the department of labor who were going ape shit because these guys try to give orders they know nothing about.

Rbastid on October 15, 2009 at 12:09 AM

Its all bull…NJ101.5 got hold of the memo

http://www.nj1015.com/personalities/casey-rossi_memo.shtm

njpat on October 15, 2009 at 8:20 AM

Governor Jon Corzine is defending one of his deputy chiefs of staff after word broke with the “Jersey Guys” on NJ 101.5 FM yesterday about an internal administration memo in which cabinet bosses were urged to manufacture press events touting Corzine’s job creation accomplishments even if its “a stretch.”

http://millenniumradionj.com/njdecides/index.html

njpat on October 15, 2009 at 8:22 AM

When are the southern 10 counties in New Jersey going to get their act together and secede from North Jersey and it’s cavalcade of corrupt assklowns?

South Jersey could hook up with Delaware because they both are very similar; Wilmington sorta = Camden. Both are heavily agricultural. Both have shore resort areas heavily dependent on summer tourism. And Atlantic City’s casino revenues would rightfully go back to the area it was intended to benefit – SOUTH Jersey.

CatchAll on October 14, 2009 at 10:40 PM

That’s not a bad idea….. As a Delaware resident, I’d be happy to see that.

We could use stimulus money to build a bridge from Cape May to Lewes, and a bigger highway from Lewes inland to handle the increased traffic. Think of the hundreds of jobs that would “save or create”!

I believe the residents of South Jersey did attempt this once, and it actually did get kind of far. Don’t know what happened, but the movement kind of lost momentum and dies.

UltimateBob on October 15, 2009 at 10:17 AM