Dems worried low turnout among black voters will lose them the House

posted at 3:40 pm on October 14, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

Last year, Democrats sailed to their current majority of over 70 seats in the House, thanks to the coattails of Barack Obama, especially among African-American voters who turned out in record numbers.  In 2010, without Obama on the top of the ticket and with Democrats increasingly isolated on their agenda, that majority may disappear.  Democratic strategists worry about record low turnouts among black voters and what that might mean for the midterms next year:

Alarms are being rung about just how many African-Americans will vote without President Barack Obama on the ballot, and the New Jersey and Virginia governors’ races in three weeks will provide the first major test since the 2008 election.

A recent Washington Post survey estimated the black turnout in Virginia’s governor’s race at 12 percent, which would be about a 40 percent drop from last year’s general election. Other polling has shown both its and New Jersey’s black population unmoved about the off-year election.

The question at this point isn’t so much whether black voters will turn out at 2008 levels, but how big the drop will be — and then, whether it carries into the 2010 midterms.

Tom Jensen, a spokesman for the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, has been among the most outspoken. He said the high number of Democrats with districts that are significantly black means such a turnout shift could be disastrous for Democrats.

“If what looks like is going to happen in Virginia plays out on a national level, I do think Democrats will lose the House,” Jensen said.

Jensen says that voters who went with Democrats in 2008 haven’t switched sides but become complacent.  That doesn’t match with the polling data from every major national pollster — and I mean every one — showing a flight of independents from the Democrats.  Jensen also ignores the recent Gallup poll of 5,000 adults that shows party identification the closest in four years, which means that some former Democrats have left the fold.  Clearly, Democrats have lost electoral ground overall, not just in enthusiasm in the African-American community.

In that group, the Republicans are not likely to have made great inroads yet.  Despite the new “What Up” blog at GOP.com, the GOP has not put out much effort in talking sense to black voters and explaining conservative principles in the context of their lives.   They should be focused on effective outreach, not slang-titled blogs that sound more patronizing than welcoming.

However, midterms tend to get lower turnout numbers as a matter of course.  The Democrats won back the House and the Senate with a turnout of just 47% overall in 2006.  The black vote turned out significantly lower at 41.2%, and Hispanics even lower at 32.3%.  All of these were improvements over 2002, but only incremental increases.

If the Democrats lose the House, it will be much more attributable to their radical policy agenda in 2009-10 than a return to normal midterm turnout levels.  This sounds like either an excuse or a little bit of scaremongering to get organizers enthused for the 2010 campaign.


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Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 5:35 PM

I thought the White House took care of you guys, telling you to get out of your pajamas…the White House pegged you liberal posters.
*
The dems should worry that the “blacks” do show up for voting, the way things are going, they may vote for Obama, but not much else.

right2bright on October 14, 2009 at 5:42 PM

Why do the Democrats get a free pass for failure with the only excuse being “good intentions” and “lack of funding”.

Juno77 on October 14, 2009 at 5:41 PM

I am guessing that if your are of statists mindset, you would have to admit that your thinking is wrong that the state can solve the education problem. It is easier to keep trying “things” until your beliefs are confirmed (if ever).

WashJeff on October 14, 2009 at 5:45 PM

Bleeds Blue:

Why don’t you answer the original question: Why do the Democrats get a free pass for failure with the only excuse being “good intentions” and “lack of funding”.

Juno77 on October 14, 2009 at 5:41 PM

The DC school system, with new leadership and vibrant charter schools appears to be improving. We are succeeding in actually giving tens of thousands of kids a real choice in schools, rather than using children to score political points. We’re fixing, not posturing.

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 5:45 PM

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 5:45 PM

Then thank the conservatives who have fought so hard for charter schools, and school choice…against the wishes of the liberals and the unions.
For decades we have tried to improve the school system for the inner city, only to be rejected by the liberal racists who are adamant about not educating inner city children…who are convinced that inner city children can’t academically compete.
If you see an improvement, just think what could have happened if liberals would have had the willing to introduce charter schools earlier…and think how much better if they relinquish and allow for school vouchers.

right2bright on October 14, 2009 at 5:52 PM

The DC school system, with new leadership and vibrant charter schools appears to be improving. We are succeeding in actually giving tens of thousands of kids a real choice in schools, rather than using children to score political points. We’re fixing, not posturing.

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 5:45 PM

this is delusional. your ideology is hellish, and has caused so much misery, death, and destruction through the years…all I can say is this goes beyond mere stupidity..to vile evil…which is what trash like you are.

right4life on October 14, 2009 at 5:54 PM

The dems should worry that the “blacks” do show up for voting, the way things are going, they may vote for Obama, but not much else.

right2bright on October 14, 2009 at 5:42 PM

they’ll vote as they’re told…look at detroit…a hell-hole…yet they still keep vote for the democRATs that keep em down…they’ve learned to love big brother…

right4life on October 14, 2009 at 5:55 PM

Omg – are they serious?

Lose because of low black turnout! Cripes!!

Wallace had it right – biggest bunch of crybabies the West has ever seen – coupled with their inability to navel gaze. . . .

karra on October 14, 2009 at 5:56 PM

If you see an improvement, just think what could have happened if liberals would have had the willing to introduce charter schools earlier…and think how much better if they relinquish and allow for school vouchers.

right2bright on October 14, 2009 at 5:52 PM

Ask who supports these issues — liberal politicians or conervative politicians:

- Charter schools?
- School choice?
- Vouchers?
- Empowering parents?
- Teacher unions?

WashJeff on October 14, 2009 at 5:57 PM

all I can say is this goes beyond mere stupidity..to vile evil…which is what trash like you are.

right4life on October 14, 2009 at 5:54 PM

Don’t hold back now…tell me what you really think.

I feel as though I understand Conservatism a little better with every word you type.

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 5:57 PM

Don’t hold back now…tell me what you really think.

I feel as though I understand Conservatism a little better with every word you type.

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 5:57 PM

oh I understand fascist trash like you all too well…

right4life on October 14, 2009 at 6:00 PM

Totally off the subject. Does Nancy Swastikapelosi look like the living dead in that photo? Or is it just me?

DeathB4Tyranny on October 14, 2009 at 6:02 PM

right4life on October 14, 2009 at 5:55 PM

WashJeff on October 14, 2009 at 5:57 PM

For over 40 years the liberals have controlled every major cities school district…certainly every inner city school district.
And all they have produced is disaster…record drop out rates, some reaching 70%.
And they think they are doing a good job…they have ruined generations of possible brilliant children, so they can win a few votes.
Despicable liberals, creating waste in minority students minds, just to stay in power.
Look at the conditions of inner city schools, and you will see the mindset of the liberals and what they think of their constituents…they treat them like animals, and “train” them like animals…and teach them to be animals.
The liberals own the school system, and all the pain and suffering they have wrought upon a people….disgusting vermin those liberal “educators”…

right2bright on October 14, 2009 at 6:02 PM

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 5:57 PM

look at the policies you support…socialism…look at the result of your policies in this country…detroit..NO…chicago…hell-holes..full of violence and despair.

not to mention what socialism has done around the world…

I’m sure you’re very proud of your polices….they’ve done ‘wonders’

right.

right4life on October 14, 2009 at 6:03 PM

I feel as though I understand Conservatism a little better with every word you type.

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 5:57 PM

Only a fool like you would want to take credit for what the schools have failed to do…liberals own it, now man up and accept your failure…or as you leader says, go out and by some pajamas and become useful…

right2bright on October 14, 2009 at 6:04 PM

right2bright on October 14, 2009 at 6:02 PM

but thats what the left wants..people like ‘bleeds blue’ want to keep people dumb and down…opressed…and having to look to ‘bwana’ like him to take care of them…I’m sure ‘bleeds blue’ thinks of himself as a good plantation owner..caring for the po people of color…that just can’t make it without him…

right4life on October 14, 2009 at 6:04 PM

chicago…hell-holes..full of violence and despair.

right4life on October 14, 2009 at 6:03 PM

I have a couple of business locations in this area. Truly sad to see parts of America where the opportunity and hope is in short supply. The moral fabric of these areas are uterly destroyed. Family, property and respect for both are almost non existent it seems. It is jsut sad!

WashJeff on October 14, 2009 at 6:07 PM

Why don’t I ever see Pelosi with a black man or woman…it seems she does not have any black person on her staff…

right2bright on October 14, 2009 at 6:11 PM

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 5:45 PM

a TOOL and a USEFUL IDIOT all in one

you have to be kidding me. it is because of the school choice movement that anything is being done

you are so bought

When you have an original thought that does not tow the party line…let me know …and no I will not hold my breath

CWforFreedom on October 14, 2009 at 6:26 PM

Badger Hawk:
I think Republicans care about kids, after all unlike their Democrat counter parts they are more likely to have the children they conceive.
Terrye on October 14, 2009 at 4:56 PM

Unlike the new safe school czar who was so concerned about that 15 year old boy.

dthorny on October 14, 2009 at 6:32 PM

Does this mean that blacks are becoming racists since they might not vote for barry?

Geochelone on October 14, 2009 at 6:35 PM

If you see an improvement, just think what could have happened if liberals would have had the willing to introduce charter schools earlier…and think how much better if they relinquish and allow for school vouchers.
right2bright on October 14, 2009 at 5:52 PM
Ask who supports these issues — liberal politicians or conervative politicians:
- Charter schools?
- School choice?
- Vouchers?
- Empowering parents?
- Teacher unions?
WashJeff on October 14, 2009 at 5:57 PM

Sure not Obama.

dthorny on October 14, 2009 at 6:36 PM

Geochelone on October 14, 2009 at 6:35 PM

since they might not vote for barry barry’s party?

Geochelone on October 14, 2009 at 6:39 PM

Republicans fled the inner city years ago and have paid very little attention to it ever since. Every now and then they resurface to blab about voucher progrmas that are transparently designed to attack the teachers’ union and destroy public schools. It never goes anywhere because they want to actually fund it.

Even when they have a good idea, like charter schools, they don’t do much about it. Where are the best charter systems in the country? Probably DC and New York, whjere progressive cities havwe made a serious effort. And Obama’s support is such that he conditioned stimulous money on lifting local restrictions on charter schools.

You find excellent public schools run by liberals just a cross the sistrict line and you find cruddy public schools run by conservatives as wellm (and good schools in conservative districts and poor schools in liberal). The difference? Mostly parents and money, not philosphy.

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 6:55 PM

Explain to me how 1,700 vouchers in one city are anything other than a publicity stunt.

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 5:16 PM

Publicity stunt or not (I don’t concede that point to you), that’s 1,700 kids that have a real chance at a better future.

This is a side note, but is connected to the education discussion; Conservatives have absolutely no interest in poor people staying poor. If the poor were given opportunities to succeed (as opposed to handouts that keep them just happy enough to not improve their lives) several things would happen:

-Poor communities would slowly stop being crime riddled sinkholes where kids don’t really have a decent chance at a good future.
-The newly middle class would begin to pay taxes, becoming net contributors to society.
-Once they started paying taxes they’d realize just how much the Democrats demand from people in order to fund their programs, and they’d stop voting Democrat.

It’s the elitist Dems like Pelosi who want the poor to stay just poor enough to be placated by a handout.

BadgerHawk on October 14, 2009 at 7:21 PM

Explain to me how 1,700 vouchers in one city are anything other than a publicity stunt.

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 5:16 PM

You are laughable . Those 1700 sure got the Dems and the Teachers’ Union’s dander up. You are such the dupe…just one original thought PLEEEEEEZ

CWforFreedom on October 14, 2009 at 7:55 PM

You find excellent public schools run by liberals just a cross the sistrict line and you find cruddy public schools run by conservatives as wellm (and good schools in conservative districts and poor schools in liberal). The difference? Mostly parents and money, not philosphy.

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 6:55 PM

I can see why you’re a democRAT…uneducated and easily led…

right4life on October 14, 2009 at 8:01 PM

Explain to me how 1,700 vouchers in one city are anything other than a publicity stunt.

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 5:16 PM

I’d wager that the familes of those 1,700 kids would disagree with your statement.

Explain to me how 1,700 vouchers in one city are anything other than a publicity stunt.

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 5:16 PM

So you’d agree with me that 170,000 vouchers would be a better approach, yes?

Red State State of Mind on October 14, 2009 at 8:23 PM

AWWWW, the poor dhimmicraps can’t keep their voters on the plantation. That’s what I heard Rahm and Axelgrease say. And if they didn’t “it doesn’t matter”* because that’s how they really think. The voters have become disillusioned.
Note to Republicans – disillusioned does NOT mean they can see straight. The voters still believe whatever bag of shit is being sold to them.
 
*-According to Rickie ‘leave the scene’ DUI Sanchez, you don’t have to actually have a quote as long as it’s what they really think.

Blacksmith8 on October 14, 2009 at 9:03 PM

Yep…them runaway ***votes*** best be wrangled and returned to their RIGHTFUL OWNERS.

.

seejanemom on October 14, 2009 at 9:33 PM

They’re sincere about racial scaremongering!

jdkchem on October 14, 2009 at 9:41 PM

HAHAHAHAHAaaa…das right mang.

royzer on October 14, 2009 at 9:47 PM

Blacks won’t vote when blacks aren’t running. Republicans should take good advantage.

BottomLine5 on October 14, 2009 at 9:50 PM

Where are the best charter systems in the country? Probably DC and New York, whjere progressive cities havwe made a serious effort. And Obama’s support is such that he conditioned stimulous money on lifting local restrictions on charter schools.

You find excellent public schools run by liberals just a cross the sistrict line and you find cruddy public schools run by conservatives as wellm (and good schools in conservative districts and poor schools in liberal). The difference? Mostly parents and money, not philosphy.

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 6:55 PM

Blue blood and brown eyes. Contrary to your ignorant belief. Money has never been the solution to good schools. The retarded liberal response to a failing school system has been to throw more money at the problem regardless of the same piss poor results. Thanks to the liberal teachers unions we’re blessed with what is probably the worst science curriculum in the universe. The result is evident. The product of the public school system is not qualified to bag groceries yet idiots like you and your bungler-in-chief are selling a lifetime of debt to the future social workers of America. Your failed philosophy has produced useless burdens on society and like every other liberal failure you lack the integrity to accept responsibility.

Do the world a favor and flush yourself.

jdkchem on October 14, 2009 at 9:54 PM

YAWN…..

The Dem leadership will just rattle the chains about race (dragging the black guy behind the truck) like they did to Bush 43 and they’ll get the turnout that they need.

Just like Bush41 did when they raved on about the Flag Burning amendment to the Constitution (that they knew would not pass) to get the Right all ginned up.

Dark days for America.

PappyD61 on October 14, 2009 at 10:11 PM

You find excellent public schools run by liberals just a cross the sistrict line and you find cruddy public schools run by conservatives as wellm (and good schools in conservative districts and poor schools in liberal). The difference? Mostly parents and money, not philosphy.

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 6:55 PM

Name one major school district in America that is conservative controlled…you won’t find one, they are all run and have been run and ruined by liberals for over 50 years.

right2bright on October 14, 2009 at 11:49 PM

I didn’t go back and read all the comments, I got to hit the sack. But I did want to mention that the democrats will get the black vote out just like they did in the last few elections. They just pay for it. Cash handouts for votes is standard operating procedure for the democrats. They call it by other names but it is just bribery.

It’s the Chicago/Detroit way.

Papa Ray

Papa Ray on October 15, 2009 at 12:30 AM

Now that ACORN is injured, the Democrats are going to have to work for their votes. The dead can’t vote and Micky Mouse isn’t allowed to register.

TN Mom on October 15, 2009 at 12:45 AM

Hey Bleeds Blue guess what. You made it on LGF. You’re playing the part of a racist thought, bummer huh?

DFCtomm on October 15, 2009 at 2:13 AM

Charles Wed, Oct 14, 2009 1:58:04pm

re: #191 SanFranciscoZionist

I hate to point this out to her–it may come as a shock–but Malkin isn’t white, and I believe Mr. Malkin is Jewish. What the hell is she hanging out with these people for?

(I don’t approve of white people hanging out with white supremacists either, but at least there is only evil and dumbness, not total cognitive dissonance, involved there.)

Don’t ask me. But it’s not the only example. Marcus Epstein is also a big booster of white supremacists, and he’s half Jewish/half Korean.

A bunch of racists accepted a Philipino woman, and a half Jewish/half Korean man based on their ideals, and not their race. You’re right Charles it’s the very definition of racism.

DFCtomm on October 15, 2009 at 2:38 AM

Before the 2012 elections, ACORN will come back renamed something else, because the Democrats need to continue to sign up as many voters to keep this maddness going.

yoda on October 15, 2009 at 6:21 AM

This sounds like either an excuse or a little bit of scaremongering to get organizers enthused for the 2010 campaign.

Gee, you mean like, spreading lies about Rush Limbaugh and thus trying to taint all conservatives as raaaacists?

Buy Danish on October 15, 2009 at 7:02 AM

You reap what you sow when you’re the Plantation Party…

Can’t wait for the mid-term elections… It’s on!

Khun Joe on October 15, 2009 at 7:51 AM

Gee, you mean like, spreading lies about Rush Limbaugh and thus trying to taint all conservatives as raaaacists?

Buy Danish on October 15, 2009 at 7:02 AM

The filthy liar and his corrupt party cannot function without finding a group or individual to hate.

highhopes on October 15, 2009 at 7:52 AM

and having to look to ‘bwana’ like him to take care of them…I’m sure ‘bleeds blue’ thinks of himself as a good plantation owner..caring for the po people of color…that just can’t make it without him…

right4life on October 14, 2009 at 6:04 PM

“bwana”

VERY. VERY. WELL. SAID.

***and half of the Left is too damned ignorant to know what that really means***

seejanemom on October 15, 2009 at 8:10 AM

You mean low ACORN votes. They never shold have won the last time.

johnnyU on October 15, 2009 at 8:40 AM

The DC school system, with new leadership and vibrant charter schools appears to be improving. We are succeeding in actually giving tens of thousands of kids a real choice in schools, rather than using children to score political points. We’re fixing, not posturing.

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 5:45 PM

Interesting that DC had to bring in an Asian woman from outside the city to fix its schools. The local black establishment utterly failed to do so over many decades.

rockmom on October 15, 2009 at 9:16 AM

The people on the plantation are lazy? Whip ‘em more!

unclesmrgol on October 15, 2009 at 9:49 AM

We already went this once today Jesse Helms Robert Byrd southern dems northern Rs states rights southern strategy Robert Byrd again Lincoln Johnson etc.

But, you know, I’m always happy to scrap with y’all.

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 4:04 PM

Obama Franks Waters, LLC — destroyers of tha nation’s economy.

unclesmrgol on October 15, 2009 at 9:51 AM

The Democrat Party, and their government managed main stream media will scream RACISM loud and long to try and sway the voters their way; And, sad to say, it works to a degree; But, some people can think for themselves.

Cybergeezer on October 15, 2009 at 9:53 AM

But, you know, I’m always happy to scrap with y’all.

Bleeds Blue on October 14, 2009 at 4:04 PM

In 1922, Republicans attempt to make lynching a Federal crime. Democrats filibuster the bill.

FDR nominated Justice Hugo Black, Robert E. Lee Klan No. 1, Birmingham, AL, to the Supreme Court. That’s the Ku Klux Klan, in case you haven’t figured it out.

I’ve already pointed out to you that Republican percentages in faver of all but the most recent reverse discrimination civil rights bills far outstrip Democrat percentages.

And there’s this little tidbit from the Washington Post:

Are Republicans stingy but principled while Democrats are generous but racist?

“I wouldn’t put it quite so starkly,” said Stanford University professor Shanto Iyengar. He would prefer to call Democrats “less principled” rather than bigoted, based on his analysis of data collected in a recent online experiment that he conducted with The Washington Post and washingtonpost.com.

As reported in this column a few weeks ago, the study found that people were less likely to give extended aid to black Hurricane Katrina victims than to white ones. The race penalty, on average, totaled about $1,000 per black victim.

As Iyengar and his colleagues subsequently dug deeper into these data, another finding emerged: Republicans consistently gave less aid, and gave over a shorter period of time, to victims regardless of race.
Democrats and independents were far more generous; on average, they gave Katrina victims on average more than $1,500 a month, compared with $1,200 for Republicans, and for 13 months instead of nine.

But for Democrats, race mattered — and in a disturbing way. Overall, Democrats were willing to give whites about $1,500 more than they chose to give to a black or other minority. (Even with this race penalty, Democrats still were willing to give more to blacks than those principled Republicans.) “Republicans are likely to be more stringent, both in terms of money and time, Iyengar said. “However, their position is ‘principled’ in the sense that it stems from a strong belief in individualism (as opposed to handouts). Thus their responses to the assistance questions are relatively invariant across the different media conditions. Independents and Democrats, on the other hand, are more likely to be affected by racial cues.”

To test the effects of race, participants in the study were asked to read a news article about Katrina victims. Some read a story featuring a white person. Some read identical stories — except the victim was black, Asian or Hispanic. Then they were asked how much assistance they think the government should give to help hurricane victims. Approximately 2,300 people participated in the study.

Iyengar said he’s not surprised by the latest findings: “This pattern of results matches perfectly an earlier study I did on race and crime” with Franklin D. Gilliam Jr. of UCLA. “Republicans supported tough treatment of criminals no matter what they encountered in the news. Others were more elastic in their position, coming to support more harsh measures when the criminal suspect they encountered was non-white.”

unclesmrgol on October 15, 2009 at 10:05 AM

Isn’t it obvious that the Democrat Party and all that they foment is meant to keep the bile stirred up among the citizens? This gives their followers a feeling of being involved and alive! But, the feelings coming from bile will need an antidote, known all too well by the liberals as ANTACID!

Cybergeezer on October 15, 2009 at 10:16 AM

Cybergeezer on October 15, 2009 at 10:17 AM

Prepare for some “Racial Incident” in VA and NJ begining 5, 4, 3, 2…

barnone on October 15, 2009 at 11:11 AM

Year 1: Republicans are racist. Vote for us or else you will never get out of poverty. Blacks vote for Dems.

Year 10: Republicans are racist. Vote for us or else you will never get out of poverty. Blacks vote for Dems.

Year 25: Republicans are racist. Vote for us or else you will never get out of poverty. Blacks vote for Dems.

Year 50: Republicans are racist. Vote for us or else you will never get out of poverty. Blacks vote for Dems.

Definition of insanity: doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different outcome.

Liberal. Mental. Disease.

angryed on October 15, 2009 at 1:44 PM

You’d think that black voters would be sick to death of this crap.

Mojave Mark on October 15, 2009 at 8:27 PM

Bunk. The Democrats will get 90% of the black vote no matter what. Has anyone checked the odds in Las Vegas?

But what is the polymer on top of Stenny Hoyer’s head? And do they have a head polymer machine in the cloak room?

rootabaga on October 15, 2009 at 8:49 PM

I’m on of those ‘life-long Democrats’ that left the DNC because of the Obama worship and vote rigging in the primaries. The DNC knows that we are not coming back and they are scared. We are the ones showing up as independents leaving the DNC. They sold us out to cement their relationship with AA’s. Sure, AA’s may not come out in the numbers that they did for Obama, but the AA’s are staying with the DNC. The problem is the people that left the party, we were big money givers and campaign workers and we are still mad as hell (and now that Obama is in complete meltdown mode, be are able to say “I told you so”) I can tell you from experience that nothing is more fun than getting those calls from the DNC and the DCCC. I tell them that I am a PUMA and never coming back!!!

freckleface on October 16, 2009 at 8:20 AM

The Plantation owners need the sharecroppers when the crop is ready to harvest. Any other time, they’re those people who live somewhere “out there”.

44Magnum on October 16, 2009 at 10:05 AM

Obama plans to force people to welfare: Story at:
http://blog.heritage.org/2009/10/16/morning-bell-obamacare-puts-you-on-welfare/

Cybergeezer on October 16, 2009 at 12:40 PM

I think the break will come along age lines, not race. I’d be worried that the youth is not about to vote.

AnninCA on October 16, 2009 at 2:45 PM

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