ObamaCare: The Senate’s $201 billion question
posted at 8:20 pm on October 7, 2009 by Karl
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Everyone in Washington and the wonkosphere seemed to be waiting for the CBO’s preliminary analysis of the Senate Finance Committee version of ObamaCare — and were relieved (on the Left) or freaked out (on the Right) that it suggested it may reduce the deficit by $81 billion. However, no one ever convinced me that any of the amendments were going to significantly increase the costs of the original Baucus proposal. Had the final product generated red ink, the number would have been small enough to be fixed by Baucus with a minor tweak or two.
If people want to focus on the fact that the Finance Committee does not have legislative language for the CBO to score, I guess that’s okay. If Peter Suderman wants to remind us that the Medicare cuts designed to pay for much of the bill’s tab are not going to happen, I guess that’s okay, too — though he admits that criticism will have a hard time getting any political traction in the Senate.
It might be more useful to look at the fact that the CBO’s preliminary estimate, with its cost-bending deficit numbers, relies on $201 billion in revenues from an excise tax on high-premium insurance plans. However, today, more than 150 House Democrats sent a letter to Speaker Nancy Pelosi opposing a new tax on expensive insurance plans. While the letter is supposedly concerned with any such tax eventually hitting middle-income Americans, the reality is that these House Dems are acting at the behest of their Big labor masters, which means they are (ahem) unlikely to change their minds on the issue. Indeed, a White House that was willing to take over much of the US auto industry to save the UAW is probably not keen on tax, either.
Moreover, the other Senate bill (Kennedy-Dodd, HELP) does not specify what spending will be cut or what taxes will be raised to pay for the increased spending. That was the job of the Finance Committee. And the House bills rely on larger cuts to Medicare and Medicare Advantage, which are (as noted above) imaginary, but will nevertheless tend to scare the Hell out of Seniors who already oppose ObamaCare and are more likely to vote in midterm elections. The GOP has already signaled that it plans to hit the Dems hard on these points if and when a bill reaches the Senate floor.
So the $201 billion question is when the Democrats are going to decide whether to soak seniors or their union base to pay for their government takeover of the US healthcare system.
Update (AP): Rove is first out of the gate among prominent Republicans in pushing back against CBO.
The CBO report claims the bill won’t add to the budget deficit until 2015—but the bill only manages that feat by delaying benefits and imposing taxes and Medicare and Medicaid cuts up front.
The CBO report does shed some light on the cost for each person the Baucus plan would add to the ranks of the insured. CBO estimates the plan would insure about 29 million people. If that is right and if the total price tag is also accurate, the average cost per year per person for the seven-and-a-half years benefits will be in force during the program’s first decade would be $3,811. That compares favorably to private insurance. On average, a single person now pays $4,824 a year for health coverage and a family of four pays $3,344 per family member per year, according to the Kaiser Permanente Institute for Health Policy.
But the CBO numbers are almost certainly overly optimistic—there has only been one large-scale federal health program that has come in at or under its projected cost, the Medicare prescription drug benefit enacted under the previous administration, which is costing 40% less than estimated.
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$201 billion here, $201 billion there….pretty soon, it adds up to some real money!
Intrepid on October 7, 2009 at 8:31 PM
http://thinkprogress.org/2009/10/07/kbr-rape-franken-amendment
Republicans are objectively pro-rape.
AJB on October 7, 2009 at 8:32 PM
Well it sounds like oboobi and/or his cretins have gotten to the cbo which was inevitable, and them dems are sure to throw granny and pops under the bus in favor of protecting the union slime.
SHARPTOOTH on October 7, 2009 at 8:34 PM
I assume that the tax on medical devices like blood glucose monitors is part of the bill that helps make it “deficit neutral”. My questions is why does the senate and President Obama hate Willford Brimley and elderly diabetics?
Just asking questions. About how Democrats hate diabetics. Questions.
Shtetl G on October 7, 2009 at 8:36 PM
Whew! Better than being pro-rape rape. I tell ya!
Did you read the amendment, there pimp?
donkichi on October 7, 2009 at 8:38 PM
It’s almost time for an armed insurrection. And I’m not kidding. I will not be forced into socialism or indentured servitude. These people are tearing this nation apart root and branch inn order to remake per their Orwellian fantasy.
DerKrieger on October 7, 2009 at 8:39 PM
This must be stopped.
Mojave Mark on October 7, 2009 at 8:41 PM
How about a some calls to your Senator first?
Shtetl G on October 7, 2009 at 8:41 PM
My Senators are Barbara Boxer and Diane Fienstein.
Two words: Charlton Heston
Flying Alaska
Caststeel on October 7, 2009 at 8:47 PM
A) They’re both Democrats. Lincoln and Pryor.
B) I call them every day. I have them on speed dial on my cell phone.
Their minds won’t be changed. All they need is a “good” excuse to vote for it like today’s BS CBO score.
The simple fact seems to be that many Dem senators are ready to retire so they’re willing to fall on their swords for Obamacare.
They just don’t care.
And I’m extremely pissed because I was enlisted in the Navy for 8 years. I put myself through college. At night. I then put myself through grad school and got my MBA. Now I make a pretty decent salary and carry some still hefty loans which I pay faithfully.
I did NOT work that hard just for the privilege of paying even more taxes than I already do to support society’s moochers and losers.
I have no doubt I’m not alone in my thinking or personal story. As Rush says, achievement is being punished.
DerKrieger on October 7, 2009 at 8:49 PM
I would dispute the left is happy about this. they may be happy for a headline and a tactical victory, but the Baucus bill is poison as far the left goes.
rob verdi on October 7, 2009 at 8:53 PM
Guess what people, right now Russ Feingold could lose his election next year. My point, hold fast and keep fighting.
rob verdi on October 7, 2009 at 8:55 PM
DerKrieger on October 7, 2009 at 8:49 PM
I’m not saying to not be pissed but all is not lost yet. The Dems are messing up. Midterms are coming. Hang in there. Maybe we can even vote in some Republicans with some cojones.
Shtetl G on October 7, 2009 at 8:57 PM
Am I confused? It doesn’t add to the deficit until 2015, but doesn’t it only go into effect in 2013?
MayBee on October 7, 2009 at 8:57 PM
Yeah, and our employer already informed everyone that it’s getting rid of the insurance plan we have– you know, the good plan. Maybe it’s something about the federal excise tax on it. Gold-plated plan doesn’t mean what everyone thinks it does. Gold-plated means that the middle class will be facing new taxes on their benefits.
So everyone in our company will have a reduction in benefits to fix the Democrats’ political problem. Benefits aren’t income dependent, so the cuts are across the board. That means that the lowest paid people will pay a higher percentage of their income to pay for the things that the new plan eliminates, which isn’t something that I thought Democrats were all about.
All I know is that we’re already losing benefits and the damn thing hasn’t even passed yet. And I’m very, very angry.
As to paying for this new interference into our lives with all of these new taxes, good luck with that. No new revenues will be raised from our employer, all of our benefits are reduced and the feds will accomplish little.
Just keep the government the hell out of our lives.
obladioblada on October 7, 2009 at 8:59 PM
If the Federal Gov’t is in charge of it….it will be bankrupt in no time.
Undeniable Laws of Federal progams:
1. Unionize it.
2. Regulate it.
3. Force Private sector out of it.
4. Use the Media to praise it.
5. Tell people they need more of it.
6. Grow it.
7. Rob it (to pay for other programs).
8. Put your friends and politcal supporters in charge of it.
9. Blame others when it fails.
10. Set up another program to monitor it.
11. Grow the regulatory agency that you just set up.
Repeat steps as required.
There you go……..we’re hosed.
We’ll be lucky if we even have a UNITED STATES this time next year at this rate.
I feel a Corazon Aquino moment coming on America.
http://www.paraisophilippines.com/img/edsapeoplepower.jpg
PappyD61 on October 7, 2009 at 9:03 PM
They haven’t passed anything yet. Everything depends on what happens with the bill and the results of the mid terms but if they persist on this Socialist path then F**k it. I’m in. Given the choice between fighting to restore the Republic or wussing out and leaving my decedents at the mercy of a bunch of Socialists it’s really not much of a choice..
What do you mean first? After all the noise we made and the tea parties attended I’m positive they know where we stand.
Guardian on October 7, 2009 at 9:08 PM
Thank you. My question exactly. This story needs a few days to play out. Things might be clearer then.
joejm65 on October 7, 2009 at 9:11 PM
How about after – 2010 we shred all the paperwork in D.C. and the 57 State Capitals (B.H.O. said it first)and start looking to the Constitution as a new start point.
wheels on October 7, 2009 at 9:23 PM
THERE IS NO BAUCAS BILL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THERE IS NOT A BAUCUS BILL!!!!! CAN YOU BELIEVE THIS?! HARRY REID AND HIS STAFF WILL WRITE THE HEALTH CARE BILL!!!!!!!!!!!
jeaneeinabottle on October 7, 2009 at 9:23 PM
They start collecting the new taxes immediately, althought the government plan doesn’t kick in til 2013. We get to start paying for everything immediately. It just takes awhile for all of the bills to catch up with the money they collected in advance.
That immediate tax is why employers are cutting health benefits already. They need to avoid the excise taxes, especially in Obama’s failing economy and with all of the other “fees” they plan to use to confiscate our earnings.
obladioblada on October 7, 2009 at 9:26 PM
They start collecting the new taxes immediately, althought the government plan doesn’t kick in til 2013. We get to start paying for everything immediately. It just takes awhile for all of the bills to catch up with the money they collected in advance.
Thanks.
And now I see that’s what Rove is saying. That just seems like a ridiculously big red light to me, and something that should be highlighted.
The 10 year “deficit reduction” analysis starts counting year 1 at 3 years before the majority of spending starts.
MayBee on October 7, 2009 at 9:32 PM
Wheels. How do we give this plan wheels? It is so, so good; except I would start it earlier.
PaCadle on October 7, 2009 at 9:34 PM
After I got out of the military, I worked my way through college at sixty cents an hour. I started my own business and when I turned sixty-five, I applied for my social security benefits. I later received a letter from the social security administration that said they had no record of my income over a ten year period, which most of that time I was in the service. And, they want to run healthcare?
Johan Klaus on October 7, 2009 at 9:36 PM
I can neither confirm, nor deny, that I purchased my first firearm at a gun show this past weekend.
Oh, who am I kidding? You’re GD right I bought one!
Dominion on October 7, 2009 at 9:38 PM
Bait and Switch CBO style.
Hurry hurry hurry, ya suckers!
Free money and nobody to pay!
Huzzah! Yowzah!
Come and get it!
profitsbeard on October 7, 2009 at 9:42 PM
The question I have about this version of the bill that was reported on: Does this version of the bill contain the public insurance idea, or is it the version with it removed? Because don’t forget, good ol’ Dingy Harry is talking about adding it in AFTER the bill goes to cloture as an amendment, which means that part of the bill IS NOT EVEN BEING REPORTED ON NOW BY THE CBO IN THIS PRELIM REPORT. Hmmm?
Highlar on October 7, 2009 at 9:44 PM
Smoke and mirrors, folks!
Johan Klaus on October 7, 2009 at 9:50 PM
The Democrats kept submitting bills until they figured out a way to hide costs. This is going to be our first chance to expose this farce – the next one they submit will be voted on before we have a chance to expose the lies.
Here are some of the areas they have passed their costs on to others:
Physicians and other providers will be paid 25% less for their services in 2011 and below the rate of inflation every year after. These are businesses with employees, businesses that will now be paid 25% less for the services they provide.
From the CBO, other areas where “savings” happen:
Every business that is involved in fee-for-service with Medicare will be expected to see a reduction in payment.
Hospitals that traditionally serve low-income patients – you know the ones that Michelle Obama Practices Patient Dumping on- those hospitals are primarily Teaching Hospitals – usually County supported or Charity Hospitals. Baucus is proposing cutting payments to those that serve the poor. This will mean that the costs will be passed on to the County tax-payers and that the Charity hospitals will be overwhelmed. These are not costs that will magically disappear.
The bill also shifts the entire cost of Medicaid for children and chip to the States. As the CBO notes in on Page 9.
There are no savings here – it’s a cheap 3 card Monty shifting costs to the states, the counties, the charities, sticking it to the businesses that serve the poor & elderly. And of course the unconstitutional tax mandate that we must buy Health Care. I only had a few minutes to go over this once, it needs a through going over.
batterup on October 7, 2009 at 9:56 PM
“You are a chump” …. per the US Congress
GnuBreed on October 7, 2009 at 10:02 PM
batterup on October 7, 2009 at 9:56 PM
Really interesting findings there, batterup! The republicans in Congress ought to hire you to go over this, it sounds like, to hand them their next talking points, although it sounds like Rove and Kraut are up on it as well. ;)
Highlar on October 7, 2009 at 10:12 PM
Good point. What’s in the bill?
On the surface, it sure looks great.
But it’s directed solely at one company:
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d111:SP2588:
Text:
So what’s the point?
If it can be enforced in the US, it’s already moot. And if you sign a contract that signs away your rights, that’s absurd – both that the contract can be written that way, and that anyone would sign it.
Also, why isn’t somebody in the service just killing these guys? Nobody in my platoon would’ve blinked if we killed some rapist and buried him in the desert. I was there in 2005 and I’d've happily slain every one of Jones’ assailants (if the rest of my platoon didn’t kill them first).
—
AJB, objectively, Al Franken is trying to write a bill of attainder. It’s not quite one, but the intent is clear. Also, what contractor does he have lined up to do the jobs they’re doing over there right now?
As Al Franken’s anti-military hard-leftists stripped the military of resources, they had to hire outside contractors (which pissed me off then and still now). Is he making funds available for more support MOSes to open up? Or is he just throwing the entire company out based on a few employees who should’ve been stabbed in the throat and left to bleed out in the desert – which is now going to result in reduced resources for the troops?
Objectively, he’s angry with Halliburton (big surprise), and he’s trying to hurt them. In this case, some Halliburton employees gave him the tools to do so. This is neither endemic nor institutionalized throughout KBR/Hall. (unlike the ACORN comparison I’m sure you’re dying to make) – these are individual contractors operating outside company policy. Objectively, his end result is going to cut off KBR/Hall.’s support network for US troops. None of this will get Jones justice, but it will hurt US troops.
If he were pushing to phase them out completely and put in support MOSes back into rotation, I’d be supportive. But as is, this looks like an emotional attack that aids neither Jones nor the military, and is simply a blatant partisan attack on KBR/Hall.
I loathe KBR & Hall’s role as well, since there should be support MOSes doing those jobs, and they should be filled by US troops, who aren’t going to skim off the top or get engaged in criminal activity because they’re beholden to the UCMJ. KBR in particular goes back for decades to when LBJ & Kennedy were hiring them in Vietnam.
CPL 310 on October 7, 2009 at 10:58 PM
The Devil is ALWAYS in the details.
LFRGary on October 7, 2009 at 10:58 PM
It’s all about the Republicats folks. I mean the boy-king and his regents are out in the highways and the hedgerows beating the bushes for any halt and lame Republicans who will come to the table in the name of bipartisanship. Bob Dole? Ahnold? The mayor of New Pork? Wait for it folks. The pressure is rising to do something, and there will be a Health Care Bill with a hidden price-tag and agenda. I say it’s 80-20 that they will pass it with Snowe and maybe a few others supporting this mess.Keep your powder dry.
Randy
williars on October 8, 2009 at 5:33 AM
You ain’t seen nothing yet, folks.
There is a huge scandal brewing in the Provice of Ontario, over wasted health care spending.
Google “eHealth,” scandal” and “Ontario”, and see what happens when you get a left-of-centre government that is allowed to spend your $$$ on health care.
rightsideupinthegwn on October 8, 2009 at 10:25 AM
Ed needs to see this!
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/toronto/story/2009/10/07/ehealth-auditor.html
Another article:
For $327 an hour, one former aide wrote to another former aide
http://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/article/649032
right–you are so right!
lovingmyUSA on October 8, 2009 at 11:02 AM
Don’t forget, as the CBO may have, many of the proposed taxes on, but not limited to, medical supplies are going to be paid by the government with one hand to the government with the other hand along with the costs of processing the taxes. So I suspect some of the government’s supposed savings evaporate into thin air.
{^_^}
herself on October 8, 2009 at 2:11 PM
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