Gallup: Party split smallest since 2005

posted at 10:12 am on October 1, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

Remember this whenever a New York Times/CBS poll, or for that matter a Washington Post/ABC or a WSJ/NBC survey, attempts to declare what Americans think on politics while featuring double-digit differences between Democrats and Republicans.  A large-scale survey by Gallup of over 5,000 adults shows that the lead Democrats enjoyed over Republicans during the last year of the Bush administration has deflated significantly, and is at its narrowest since 2005:

In the third quarter of this year, 48% of Americans identified politically as Democrats or said they were independent but leaned to the Democratic Party. At the same time, 42% identified as Republicans or as independents who leaned Republican. That six-point spread in leaned party affiliation is the smallest Gallup has measured since 2005.

These results are based on an average of five Gallup and USA Today/Gallup polls conducted in the third quarter of 2009, encompassing interviews with more than 5,000 U.S. adults. Gallup’s Daily tracking survey — established in 2008 — has shown a similar narrowing of the party support gap in recent months. …

Since Barack Obama took office as president in January, the Democratic advantage in leaned party identification has shrunk each quarter, from 13 points in the first quarter (52% to 39%) to 9 points in the second quarter (49% to 40%) and 6 points in the most recent quarter (48% to 42%).

The narrowing is more impressive because of the sample type.  Adults skew more towards the Left than do registered voters or likely voters.  Considering the methodology, the lost ground looks even worse for Democrats than one might otherwise note.

Leaners actually don’t make much difference to the overall gap, but are still a critical part of the story.  Even without them, the gap is only eight points, which is actually up from the spring, when it was six points.  However, the gap among independent leaners has shifted dramatically.  Democrats had an eight-point lead with them as recently as fall 2007.  Republicans took their first lead with these voters in the entire four-year run of this survey, 15%-13%, reversing a 17%-11% lead for Democrats in the first quarter of this year.

This confirms that Americans did not want the radical agenda of Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid.  The backlash has already begun to build.  The only way anyone could miss it would be to rely on ridiculously skewed polls that wildly oversample Democrats in order to get positive numbers for massive government takeovers like ObamaCare.


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The ACORN party is falling???

seven on October 1, 2009 at 10:15 AM

Yet, the lead given to Democrats in NYT/CNN polls continues to grow.

MarkTheGreat on October 1, 2009 at 10:15 AM

Did this poll include the dead and never existed?

MarkTheGreat on October 1, 2009 at 10:16 AM

This will all reflect in the 2010 mid terms.

SHARPTOOTH on October 1, 2009 at 10:17 AM

Well, at least in Illinois they can dig up a bunch of corpses during the Olympic construction and have them vote in the 2010 and 2012 elections.

jon1979 on October 1, 2009 at 10:17 AM

Adults skew more towards the Left than do registered voters or likely voters

Unfortunately, the Adults are in charge right now.

WashJeff on October 1, 2009 at 10:18 AM

Let’s hope the Dems miss these significant facts and continue down this road. It will be fun to watch them self implode!

nwsseeker on October 1, 2009 at 10:18 AM

Did this poll include the dead and never existed?

MarkTheGreat on October 1, 2009 at 10:16 AM

Just Mickey and Ted Kennedy.

nwsseeker on October 1, 2009 at 10:20 AM

Since Barack Obama took office as president in January, the Democratic advantage in leaned party identification has shrunk each quarter,

By 2012 the +/- will be at 0.

jbh45 on October 1, 2009 at 10:20 AM

Oversampling of racists?

LibTired on October 1, 2009 at 10:21 AM

I’d like to see how many Neanderthals were sampled in this poll; something tells me those knuckle-draggers are an overly high percentage and skewed the results.

Bishop on October 1, 2009 at 10:23 AM

I am sure the weekly unemployment numbers will help the Dems. I am sure the “red headed Obama girl waiting in an employment line” picture will becoming up shortly on HA. His economic policies are just a disaster.

WashJeff on October 1, 2009 at 10:23 AM

Unfortunately, the Adult diapers are in charge right now.

WashJeff on October 1, 2009 at 10:18 AM

FIFY

rbj on October 1, 2009 at 10:25 AM

This confirms that Americans did not want the radical agenda of Barack Obama,

Yeah, but we’ve got him, we’re stuck with him and I’m sick of him.

Knucklehead on October 1, 2009 at 10:27 AM

I am sure the weekly unemployment numbers will help the Dems. I am sure the “red headed Obama girl waiting in an employment line” picture will becoming up shortly on HA. His economic policies are just a disaster.

WashJeff on October 1, 2009 at 10:23 AM

No wonder she’s unemployed, she looks a bit like a b

Jeff from WI on October 1, 2009 at 10:28 AM

No wonder she’s unemployed, she looks a bit like a b

Jeff from WI on October 1, 2009 at 10:28 AM

Cut her a break, she’s been in that line for a long time.

SHARPTOOTH on October 1, 2009 at 10:30 AM

This confirms that Americans did not want the radical agenda of Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid. The backlash has already begun to build. The only way anyone could miss it would be to rely on ridiculously skewed polls that wildly oversample Democrats in order to get positive numbers for massive government takeovers like ObamaCare.

You post this like the will of the American people matter to the filthy lying coward and his corrupt party. It does not. They will oppress us “for our own good.”

highhopes on October 1, 2009 at 10:31 AM

This confirms that Americans did not want the radical agenda of Barack Obama,

B-b-b-but HE QUOTES NIEBUHR!!

CDeb on October 1, 2009 at 10:32 AM

Considering the methodology, the lost ground looks even worse for Democrats than one might otherwise note.

Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.

venividivici on October 1, 2009 at 10:32 AM

All this in spite of Palin. Be afraid libs, be afraid.

bloggless on October 1, 2009 at 10:34 AM

Rasmussen has is anywhere from 2 to 4 points up for Rep..I trust his poll a lot more than gallup or any other poll out there.

thmcbb on October 1, 2009 at 10:34 AM

What it means is the voters voted for what Obama promised, not what he is doing.
And because of selective hearing, this is what they heard:
Change: Transparency, and openness in the Government.
Change: A reaching across party lines and a more co-operative leadership involving the other party.
Change: No more indiscriminate spending, he will go “line by line” on each bill and cut irresponsible spending.
Change: No more lobbyists persuading politicians.
Change: The other countries will respect us and embrace us.
Change: The economy will grow, not stagnate or get worse.
Change: The government will be less intrusive.
Change: The government will give, but at no cost.
Change: Everyone will be more responsible, and the middle class will not carry the burden.
Change: War will be ended, death of our soldiers will end.
Change: Gitmo will be closed, and the detainees will become good guys.
Change: Afghan is absolutely necessary to win.
Change: Racial bias and disorder will diminish.
Change: Will allow people to voice their opinions, and they will be heard.
Change: No more “insider” politics.
And I am sure there are more….but none of these happened, and these were his promises…absolute promises that was the cornerstone of his campaign.

right2bright on October 1, 2009 at 10:36 AM

Change: No increase in taxes.
A big one I missed.

right2bright on October 1, 2009 at 10:36 AM

Yeah, but we’ve got him, we’re stuck with him and I’m sick of him.

Knucklehead on October 1, 2009 at 10:27 AM

If more people knew of Lou Reed’s song I’m Sick of You from his New York CD, could have some fun altering the lyrics. Make for good YouTube video.

WashJeff on October 1, 2009 at 10:40 AM

Unlike Larry Summers, who likes to use the slipshod method of gauging the public’s views via google searches, I prefer the much more scientific “Pre-Ordered Books on Amazon That Don’t Even Have Covers Yet” Methodology. My Friends, even you WashJeff, we are heading into a complete sweep in 2010.

derik on October 1, 2009 at 10:41 AM

Racist!

Track-A-'Crat on October 1, 2009 at 10:41 AM

This confirms that Americans did not want the radical agenda of Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid.

Didn’t need a poll to confirm that. If Obama and his handlers believed Americans actually wanted his radical agenda, then Obama wouldn’t have campaigned as a fiscally responsible moderate, promising voters that no one making under $250k a year would have their taxes raised “one dime” by his administration, and that he’d require budget cuts to balance out any new gov’t spending, etc.

The Obama crowd knew Obama would never be elected if he told voters the truth about who he is and what he wanted to do once he won the presidency. That’s why they repeatedly lied — and then snickered behind their hands at all the dumb rubes who fell for their BS.

AZCoyote on October 1, 2009 at 10:41 AM

Did this poll include the dead and never existed?

Or the 2007 Dallas Cowboys?

crazy_legs on October 1, 2009 at 10:42 AM

right2bright on October 1, 2009 at 10:36 AM

You left out the rainbow-colored unicorns.

- no less realistic then the rest of ‘em.

fogw on October 1, 2009 at 10:42 AM

Yet, the lead given to Democrats in NYT/CNN polls continues to grow.

MarkTheGreat on October 1, 2009 at 10:15 AM

The NY Times probably never samples any Neanderthal redneck cowboys from the Wild West–west of the Hudson River.

/sarc

Steve Z on October 1, 2009 at 10:42 AM

Ed, this is yet another borked poll a YABoP. Look the US is a center right country this poll is just another attempt by the left to make it look like a 50/50 split which IT NEVER WAS.

dogsoldier on October 1, 2009 at 10:44 AM

Did this poll include the dead and never existed?

MarkTheGreat on October 1, 2009 at 10:16 AM

Or the illegal border hoppers that will be made legal just in time for the reincarnation of the telepromter jesus, The Presidente Pinnochio, if not in time for his Congress Critters and Senate Scumbags midterms

dhunter on October 1, 2009 at 10:45 AM

seems like a lot of people have changed their minds about this guy.

Jvette on October 1, 2009 at 10:46 AM

You left out the rainbow-colored unicorns.

- no less realistic then the rest of ‘em.

fogw on October 1, 2009 at 10:42 AM

I kept with the ones he publicly promised in his speeches and debates.
I get your attempt at humor…but my list is why his numbers have dropped, he is not fulfilling his campaign promises.
Another way to look at it is that he “lied”, and freedom died.

right2bright on October 1, 2009 at 10:48 AM

seems like a lot of people have changed their minds about this guy.

Jvette on October 1, 2009 at 10:46 AM

Do you know how hard it is for some to admit? They were running around in such great pride…I think this is the tip of the iceberg, many more are on the verge of dumping him, or they know to diss him know marks them as a…..RACIST!!

right2bright on October 1, 2009 at 10:51 AM

Polls, (yaaaahhhnnn), wake me up to look at them near the next election.

Jeff from WI on October 1, 2009 at 10:51 AM

Know=now, whatever, thought does not equal proper speling.

right2bright on October 1, 2009 at 10:52 AM

This will all reflect in the 2010 mid terms.

SHARPTOOTH on October 1, 2009 at 10:17 AM

And they know it. They’re desperate and soon if not already they’re going to act on that desperation and ram things through in a way that makes what has happened over the past year seem calm.

We need to win in a big way in 2010 and 2012. I’m talking big enough to reverse whatever it is they pass… er, RAM down our throats be it healthcare or an energy tax.

Yakko77 on October 1, 2009 at 10:52 AM

Jeff from WI on October 1, 2009 at 10:51 AM

Keep them coming, it shows that is is “okay” to back away from Obama…they have company and lots of it.
They are not alone in this trend…it is okay to change your mind on Obama.

right2bright on October 1, 2009 at 10:54 AM

This confirms that Americans did not want the radical agenda of Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid. The backlash has already begun to build.

This is great but it begs the question – will it matter and if it does how does the opposition stop him in time for it to make a difference. The NHC debate is a good example – the internals on this must be off the charts bad for Dems yet they plow ahead with passage; the numbers for Cap and Tx have to be about as bad, yet the House passed it. I guess that my point is that it doesn’t seem to matter what the numbers are on these issues b/c the Dems have decided to steamroll all of it through no matter what. Sorry for the negativity but I just think that 11/2010 is too far away to make much of a difference to these guys. Here’s to hoping that I’m wrong here.

volnation on October 1, 2009 at 10:55 AM

I would say that this poll indicates that independent voters are the most stupid, gullible, ignorant, will-o-the-wisp voters–right after Democrats.

Stepan on October 1, 2009 at 10:56 AM

Okay–But why is the RCP approval number still at 52%? I have always depended on RCP because truthfully this is an echo chamber and I have to look at reality now and then.

Why isn’t Obama’s approval rating in the toilet?

How does this compare with past Presidents?

And don’t give me that old line about people being afraid to say what they really think because he is black. I quit believing that when he won the stupid election!

petunia on October 1, 2009 at 11:00 AM

Ed, this is yet another borked poll a YABoP. Look the US is a center right country this poll is just another attempt by the left to make it look like a 50/50 split which IT NEVER WAS.

dogsoldier on October 1, 2009 at 10:44 AM

Our country was went center-left in the 2006 and 2008 elections. However, that was based on Bush fatigue and false advertising of Obama as center-left, when he is actually hard left.

Now, 2010 looks like the center-right will win again.

Not conservative, but conservatives and moderate conservatives.

Loxodonta on October 1, 2009 at 11:01 AM

With reporting like this, it’s no wonder the Dems have as much support as they do,


Video: Charlie Gibson Reporting on 9.4% Unemployment Under Reagan, Then Under Obama

It’s irritating as hell but totally expected… unfortunately.

It just goes to show how long the media has been lapdogs instead of the watchdogs they’re supposed to be.

Yakko77 on October 1, 2009 at 11:01 AM

telepromter jesus

That made me laugh–which I have sorely needed ever since I saw yesterday’s video of Deliver Us, H0bama.

2010 will bring a day of reckoning like no other–if we can weather the RINOs and just hang on that long.

NTXLass on October 1, 2009 at 11:13 AM

2010 will bring a day of reckoning like no other–if we can weather the RINOs and just hang on that long.

NTXLass on October 1, 2009 at 11:13 AM

I’d suggest that November 2010 might include the official day of reckoning but the real movement will be months-old by then if it is going to happen. The filthy liar’s plot to seize healthcare is up for a vote before Thanksgiving. Amnesty is at the top of the pile for January. If Americans do not wake up, stand up, and speak out now the elections in 2010 are meaningless.

highhopes on October 1, 2009 at 11:17 AM

petunia on October 1, 2009 at 11:00 AM

Because, generally people like Obama as a person…and as much as you want to take it off the table, whites are hesitant to diss a black man for fear of being called a racist, and the blacks; well they are still at 94% approval.
But they don’t like his policies, his lies on the campaign trail…I listed them above.
He promised “transparency”, he promised no more partisan bickering, and he is worse at just those two things then any president in the near past.
His economics have failed miserably, and his health care plan is totally rejected….but they like him, he seems to be a nice guy. Incapable of being a leader, naive, doesn’t make decisions…but he seems to be a nice guy, good for a beer in his backyard. Which, BTW, was one of his high points…having a beer in his backyard with a couple of normal citizens.
That is what he is good for…having a beer, and maybe a good game of “shoot around”…

right2bright on October 1, 2009 at 11:18 AM

Okay–But why is the RCP approval number still at 52%? I have always depended on RCP because truthfully this is an echo chamber and I have to look at reality now and then.

Why isn’t Obama’s approval rating in the toilet?

How does this compare with past Presidents?

And don’t give me that old line about people being afraid to say what they really think because he is black. I quit believing that when he won the stupid election!

petunia on October 1, 2009 at 11:00 AM

I think part of it is the racial aspect. Some people are still afraid to criticize him because of his race. Hell, the GOP was terrified to challenge him on anything for months after his inauguration. Thankfully they’re finally coming out their shell.

And aside from the race issue, I think many people are still holding out hope(there’s that word again) that things will turn around. They’re not ready to write him off just yet. He’s bleeding support among independents, and Republicans are all but done with him. But he has nearly universal support from Dems. Until that group turns on him, he’ll always have 30-35% support guaranteed along with 10-15% of independents and dumb Republicans.

Doughboy on October 1, 2009 at 11:29 AM

The Obama “administration” is bringing America together in agreeing that the Democrat Party is a corrupt, incompetent bunch of suckage.

NoDonkey on October 1, 2009 at 11:35 AM

BOTTOM LINE; IT’S ALL ABOUT THE MONEY; NOT THEIRS; OURS!

Cybergeezer on October 1, 2009 at 11:42 AM

petunia on October 1, 2009 at 11:00 AM

How does this compare with past Presidents?

From the Wall Street Journal: How the Presidents Stack Up – A look at U.S. presidents’ job-approval ratings.

Check the tabs on the left to compare from Truman through GW Bush. Barry is not that impressive.

Loxodonta on October 1, 2009 at 11:56 AM

Obama will never move center no matter what the polls say and that will save us. He’s no Clinton in that regard. He’s too stubborn. And that will be his downfall, maybe not today or tomorrow, but it is coming. Pelosi and Reid, Frank and Dodd are helping move those chips as well. When was the last time you saw 10,000 (sarc) people on the Washington Mall AGAINST a president’s policies?

NJ Red on October 1, 2009 at 12:01 PM

But don’t yall see: He is going to get Chicago the Olympics! :(

Dire Straits on October 1, 2009 at 12:07 PM

But don’t yall see: He is going to get Chicago the Olympics! :(

Dire Straits on October 1, 2009 at 12:07 PM

Bet Not!!!

NJ Red on October 1, 2009 at 12:08 PM

NEWSFLASH:Rush is Starting. This is going to be good as always.

Dire Straits on October 1, 2009 at 12:09 PM

But don’t yall see: He is going to get Chicago the Olympics! :(

Dire Straits on October 1, 2009 at 12:07 PM

Bet Not!!!

NJ Red on October 1, 2009 at 12:08 PM

Boy that would be hillarious. Der Leader and Oprah would never recover.

Dire Straits on October 1, 2009 at 12:11 PM

Obamas apologists at CNBC had to concede today that the economy may be “stalling” as unemployment continues to rise.
Combined with new insane EPA regulations on new plants and commercial buildings, we are going nowhere but down next year.
The Democrats are going to be destroyed because of this radical lunatic and fellow nuts like Rep. Grayson.

jjshaka on October 1, 2009 at 12:13 PM

oh, it’s just whatever Ted Kennedy would have wanted, that’s all that matters. If Ted’s on the ballot next year, Massachusetts will vote for him.

kirkill on October 1, 2009 at 12:16 PM

“Adults” includes seniors and they are massively moving away from the Democratic Party right now.

rockmom on October 1, 2009 at 12:22 PM

right2bright

Change: The one we have been waiting for. NOT!

meMC on October 1, 2009 at 1:37 PM

In the third quarter of this year, 48% of Americans identified politically as Democrats

So 48% of Americans are idiots then. At least it’s not 50%.

angryed on October 1, 2009 at 1:46 PM

What’s with people? You either are or you aren’t.

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 1, 2009 at 5:11 PM

I keep encountering folk on political forums who discount any chance of large gains next year because, they claim only 22% identify as republican…I point out that the polls they use oversample dems by double digits and the flight of independents from the dems….

JIMV on October 20, 2009 at 11:28 AM