Amazing: Palin’s book number one on both Amazon and Barnes & Noble bestseller list; Update: “It is truly unprecedented”

Allahpundit on September 30, 2009 at 7:25 PM

I KNOW A LOT OF PEOPLE LIKE HER. JUST NOT ENOUGH TO BEAT OBAMA.

It would be easy to be dismissive of your comment AP but I am not going to resort to what the Left loves to engage in. Instead what I am going to do is attempt to prove that Sarah is viable as a presidential candidate in 2012 by breaking down where her support will come from over the next 30 months.

But let me take a step back to remind you AP when you run for POTUS the most important thing is to attain the nomination of your own party and not to dwell on a head-to-head scenario against Obama. The names most important to Palin right now are Romney and Huckabee and whoever enters the first tier of GOP candidates.

Even you AP would have to admit that if you had any doubt that Sarah was a first-tier candidate you cannot have any from hereon out from the intensity of the desire to buy Sarah’s book. I’m not saying that Sarah is going to prevail in the primaries in 2012 but she is definitely in the mix as the Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Jets, and the Colts are now in the mix who will win the AFC championship.

Having said that let me project 10 categories of supporters that Sarah have a good chance of picking up along the way or who have already signed on:

1)the conservative wing of the Republican party and independent conservatives made up of gun owners, strict Constitutionalists, Reagan conservatives, the pro-life movement, the Christian or evangelical community (not a monopoly), some libertarians, an array of military personnel, and a slice of the fiscal conservative branch of the GOP; AP, you may dismiss this “core” of Sarah’s support but they total in the millions and for the most part only have disdain for RINO’s or anybody who wants to curry favor or “show love” to the Messiah; I am one of them, We are an ornery but level-headed bunch, intelligent, savvy, totally committed to Sarah and for the most part understand what we are up against in taking Obama out in 2012: Alinsky tactics, the propaganda of the MSM, and the billions held by shadow party members led by George Soros and of course Obama and the Democratic Party. The task is formidable and we know that. Don’t expect any apostasy or proselytization of our members here.

2)The second group will be composed of those who read Sarah’s book and decide they like what they read; basically AP what the book will do is reinforce their good feelings toward Sarah that they had during the campaign, but these folks although mentally in Sarah’s corner but for different reasons were not physically and verbally able to make the commitment yet, some because it’s just too early in the election cycle, others who wanted to see a little more to see if Sarah was a flash in the pan and others who simply when they decide to commit they never go back on their word so they wanted to be absolutely sure of Sarah. For the most part these folks are conservatives but there will be a few moderates that will take the leap of faith as well by spring 2010 after they have read the book.

3)In the next 12 months leading up to the 2010 midterms Sarah will be on full display for all to see as she gives paid and unpaid speeches, writes op-eds and gives interviews. For hardcore party organizaers or big shots old enough to be familiar with Reagan conservatism, this will be an important opportunity for them to assess Sarah to whether she has the talent, intelligence and moxie to communicate her ideas and message with passionate intensity and maximum impact to bring voters to the GOP tent and convince them to get off their duff and vote in November 2010. Many of these party members currently are skeptical of Sarah’s ability to “make a splash” because frankly they do not know her or have never met her. That sounds unbelievable AP but if you remember when Sarah was unveiled on August 29th there were even GOP members of Congress who had never heard of her. I firmly believe that leading up the 2010 midterms Sarah will literally dazzle these folks and slowly and gradually more and more of these folks will filter over to Sarah’s team as they consistently witness consistently impressive performances from her. But there will still be many holdouts especially among the moderates or RINO’s in the GOP establishment who either have committed or soon to commit to Romney or even Huckabee.

4)Another group that I believe will embrace Sarah over the next year or two are libertarians (not the Ron Paul type)who recognize Sarah’s commitment to libertarian-conservatism which many people who know her well assert that she is and not the hardcore socon the MSM makes her out to be; again this will be a gradual process and a phenomenon that Obama and his team are going to pay special attention to if it develops as I think it will.

And sometime along the way once Sarah is able to convince hardcore “border first, anti-amnesty” types that she is on their side many of those folks will also come over to supporting her.

5)Many of the Tea Party folks will announce their loyalty to Sarah if they haven’t already, as we get closer to the 2010 midterms and there is more dissatisfaction and disenchantment of Obama and his administration. Many of these folks are independents who are fed up with both the Democrats and the Republicans. I really believe Sarah can swing the greater majority of them to her side. But I am not going to take that for granted. If Sarah begins to show signs to them that she has abandoned her “rogue status” she could lose them or they may not show up to vote.

6)Going into the 2010 midterms these folks will provide the bulk of her support. After helping to orchestrate a huge GOP landslide victory in the midterms with the GOP perhaps taking back one of the houses of Congress, Sarah will then shortly after attract the types regardless of political conviction who just want to “be on the winning team”. The bandwagon effect I predict will be huge. How much it cuts into Romney’s and/or Huckabee’s support at the time is debatable.

7)By spring 2011 I believe Sarah will be the acknowledged frontrunner and with that status comes debates among her opponents whether to stay in the primaries or to bow out. By the law of averages let’s say there are 8 declared candidates 2 or 3 may bow out by summer 2011 and if any of these candidates are “conservative” I would hazard a guess many of their supporters would be comfortable shifting over to Sarah. Obviously some will also bleed also to Romney and Huckabee.

8)By the fall of 2011, there are two scenarios IMHO-the first that is that it is obvious that Huckabee cannot win and either he leaves the race or he stays in and his supporters (especially evangelicals)begin to slowly bleed away to Palin not wanting Romney to win. Again some will also transfer their loyalty to Mitt. But the second scenario could be where Huck is as strong as Mitt where they fight with each other who will face Sarah in a head-to-head contest after the first 3 primaries. Under this scenario Sarah may not gain much in the party but perhaps some independent moderates who detest Obama may be drawn to her seeing her as the eventual winner but not totally aligned with her philsophically.

9)If Sarah can win early in the primaries much of Huck’s support will IMHO embrace Sarah (she has never has an unkind word for Huck); there will always be a few holdouts among Huck’s staunchest supporters but eventually as 2012 moves along they will come along, even though many of them may still doubt “a woman” can become POTUS.

10)And that leaves Romney’s supporters, many of them elitists and fiscal conservatives but social moderates. They will be the hardest to bring over to support Sarah and quite frankly out of spite may never join Sarah’s team and commit to Obama. Believe me I don’t want that to happen, but really is it that so inconceivable especially with polls consistently that show now that about 20% of Republicans find favor with Obama. But for party unity many Romney supporters will reluctantly declare their support for Sarah as George HW Bush’s did when Reagan won. Having said that whoever Sarah chooses as her VP will go a long way to healing any wounds in the party.

After Sarah is declared the nominee I believe she will also have a good chance to pick up some Reagan Democrats as we head towards the general election.

So in conclusion AP I disagree with you. If what I have written comes to pass I believe Sarah will have an excellent chance to dethrone the Messiah, but it will be close. Yes there may be still enough apolitical Americans and drones in America to tip the scales and hand the election to Obama, but as Chris Berman says, “That’s why they play the game.”

technopeasant on September 30, 2009 at 9:21 PM