Recovery alert: Durable goods orders, housing sales plunged in August

posted at 11:54 am on September 26, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

While Joe Biden tells Americans that the stimulus has worked “better than we hoped,” the numbers tell a different story.  Seven months after passing a whopping $787 billion stimulus package, unemployment and mass layoffs both jumped in August.  What didn’t go up?  Orders of durable goods, which took a significant plunge instead:

New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell unexpectedly in August, dropping by their biggest margin in seven months, following a plunge in commercial aircraft orders, the government reported Friday.

The Commerce Department said durable goods orders tumbled 2.4 percent, the largest decline since January, after rising by a revised 4.8 percent in July. New orders for July were previously reported to have increased 5.1 percent.

Analysts polled by Reuters forecast orders rising 0.5 percent in August. Compared with the same period last year, new orders were down 24.9 percent.

Durable goods orders are a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, which in turn provides a good measure for overall business health.

This follows on the heels of a new decline in housing sales of 2.7% in August as well:

Resales of U.S. homes dropped 2.7% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.1 million, the first decline in five months, prompting the National Association of Realtors to again plead for more taxpayer subsidies for their business. …

“It is perfectly clear that realtors are scared to death of the tax credit’s expiration,” wrote Dan Greeenhaus, chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak & Co., noting the phrase “tax credit” appears six times in the group’s press release.

First-time buyers accounted for about 30% of sales in July and August, Yun said.

Without an extension of the taxpayer subsidy, the housing market could fall into a “double-dip” downturn, Yun said, which would stall the overall economic recovery.

The housing market is also being propped up by the Federal Reserve’s purchases of nearly $1.5 trillion in mortgage-related securities, accounting for about 80% of the market. The Fed said Wednesday it would slow its purchases and end them by next March.

Why will we hit a double dip in the recession without government subsidies?  In part, it will come from the fact that the $787 billion stimulus and other government-subsidy programs don’t address the real problems of the recession.  Cash for Clunkers is a perfect demonstration of this, where massive government intervention gives the appearance of improvement for a very short period of time, but really only results in a transfer of sales from the future to the present, which creates a recessionary period later.

The problem with the economy now is the drain of capital from the private markets, both now and especially in the future.  The Obama administration has expansive dreams of big-government control of health care and energy production which will suck capital out of the private markets, where it gets used efficiently, into government bureaucracies that waste it.  These massive programs are running up massive deficits, and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that taxes will get hiked in huge proportions to pay for it eventually.  The result: investors put their money into savings rather than risk, jobs don’t get created, and recessions continue.

Obama’s domestic agenda will only continue the malaise, and the illusion of recovery has already begun to peel away.  Get ready for the downward curve of this economic roller coaster again, which even an extension of federal subsidies won’t cover for long — but which will guarantee an even further drop down the line.

Update: How about we give a Chip Diller All Is Well Award here?

Update: I forgot to put the link to the durable-goods story.  It’s there now.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

All is well! All is well!

Summed up beautifully Ed!

TheBigOldDog on September 26, 2009 at 11:57 AM

So far, all of Barry’s efforts have been “all show, no go”. But that’s what happens with socialists. Everything is for show. Don’t look behind the facade, all you’ll find is rot.

GarandFan on September 26, 2009 at 11:59 AM

We’ll get September’s job report on Fri.

Ready for more spin?

artist on September 26, 2009 at 12:00 PM

This is what you get when the people calling the shots think profit is bad.

forest on September 26, 2009 at 12:00 PM

The Commerce Department said durable goods orders tumbled 2.4 percent, the largest decline since January, after rising by a revised 4.8 percent in July. New orders for July were previously reported to have increased 5.1 percent.
Analysts polled by Reuters forecast orders rising 0.5 percent in August. Compared with the same period last year, new orders were down 24.9 percent.

Ouch, some Christmas this is going to be. No wonder they tried to downplay it by posting at 5pm on a Friday.

Vashta.Nerada on September 26, 2009 at 12:00 PM

Just like any other addict, don’t care about hurting worse tomorrow, just give me that hit now!

JamesLee on September 26, 2009 at 12:00 PM

Weekly unemployment data : initial claims still well above 500k.

Skandia Recluse on September 26, 2009 at 12:01 PM

This isn’t the stimulus package you were looking for.

MORE COW BELL!!!!

csdeven on September 26, 2009 at 12:02 PM

While Joe Biden tells Americans that the stimulus has worked “better than we hoped,”

Hope

Recovery alert: Durable goods orders, housing sales plunged in August

Change

ICBM on September 26, 2009 at 12:03 PM

Hey Barry, maybe you should try across the board tax cuts! Aw, who am I kidding?

jimmy2shoes on September 26, 2009 at 12:03 PM

The stimulus package wasnt a jobs package it was a Democratic party reward package to groups that helped elected them.

When the democratic party does well America does poorly. Its a fact.

William Amos on September 26, 2009 at 12:03 PM

Empty ships are a good thing for some folks, acc to TIME. So wise up.

Akzed on September 26, 2009 at 12:06 PM

I think we should add the “Remain Calm All Is Well” scene award from Animal House, like the Louie Renault award for these idiots.

GP on September 26, 2009 at 12:07 PM

Pfft! The numbers fail to show how many orders and housing sales were “saved” by the stimulus.

/s

mankai on September 26, 2009 at 12:07 PM

Quick! Time to blame Bush! Again!

Reminds me of the song lyrics:

“Anything you can do
I can do better.

No you can’t.
Yes I can.
No you can’t.
Yes I can.”

But now we have:

“The economy is recovering!

No it’s not. (Blame Bush)
Yes it is! (Praise Obama)
No it’s not. (Blame Bush)
Yes it is! (Praise Obama)”

Spin spin spin, you incompetent buffoons.

BardMan on September 26, 2009 at 12:08 PM

jimmy carter to the 3rd power…

UNREPENTANT CONSERVATIVE CAPITOLIST on September 26, 2009 at 12:08 PM

What didn’t go up? Orders of durable goods, which took a significant plunge instead

Here’s how a cynical person may read this:

- Instead of quoting a commonly used metric like GDP or unemployment, Ed is alarmed that “orders of durable goods” are declining, suggesting Ed had to cherry pick a bad looking stat.

- A google search shows this is the first time the phrase “durable goods” has ever been used by Ed on HotAir, suggesting Ed only now calls attention to it because it’s a stat doing poorly. If it were such a leading indicator of the economy as a whole, why haven’t we heard about “orders of durable goods” before?

- The paragraph discussing this plunge in orders for durable goods isn’t cited or linked, so we’ve got to take Ed’s word for it. Hooray!

e-pirate on September 26, 2009 at 12:09 PM

Who could have guessed that if you provide huge incentives for people to buy cars that they don’t need, and top it with rampant rumors that a “cash for durable goods” extravaganza is on the way (“Don’t buy that fridge yet!” the headlines ran), durable goods sales would drop?

Government meddling has been working so well, I just wish that someone in Congress would propose bringing those skills to bear to fix our health care mess.

notropis on September 26, 2009 at 12:11 PM

Here’s how a cynical person sin doctor may read this:e-pirate on September 26, 2009 at 12:09 PM

FIFY

BardMan on September 26, 2009 at 12:11 PM

How long will it take before Obama and Co. cannot spin this so that all independents will have purged themselves of Hope and Change?

I see 35% of the country continuing to sing his praises on the economy as we ride of the cliff. They’ve invested too much in him to let go. Of course, it’ll be interesting to see how the left reacts to any hard lines he takes in foreign and military affairs.

Anyway, I think swing voters will swallow on a grim Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years, but by Valentine’s Day, they will not be in the mood to hear about Barack and Michelle’s romantic Valentine’s Day date.

BuckeyeSam on September 26, 2009 at 12:12 PM

Instead of quoting a commonly used metric like GDP or unemployment,

…..

Do you REALLY want a post on that?

Really,do you?

artist on September 26, 2009 at 12:12 PM

Better watch out on these rebuttals…remember what Zero said:

“NOBODY messes with Joe!”

Stephanie on September 26, 2009 at 12:12 PM

Here’s how a cynical person spin doctor may read this:
e-pirate on September 26, 2009 at 12:09 PM

FIFY

Whoops, my first attempt was AWFUL!

BardMan on September 26, 2009 at 12:13 PM

Ya can’t fool Old Joe!

Ogabe on September 26, 2009 at 12:13 PM

Commercial aircraft orders won’t be picking up anytime soon in the future either. The world airlines keep trying to delude themselves, like the rest of the politicians and business leaders, that the recession has ended and that things will start picking up. Passenger and cargo traffic is way down, and won’t pick up in the near future, especially since we will enter either a double-dip recession or a depression. Japan Air Lines is in deep trouble with talk of splitting it up. Several U.S. carriers won’t survive a double-dip recession or depression. Not a pretty sight in the world of airlines or aircraft manufacturers. Don’t expect durable goods orders to be helped by commercial aircraft orders for quite a while.

MeAlice on September 26, 2009 at 12:14 PM

Where are the jobs?

faraway on September 26, 2009 at 12:19 PM

Here’s how a cynical braindead person librul troll may read try to spin this:

e-pirate on September 26, 2009 at 12:09 PM

PackerBronco on September 26, 2009 at 12:22 PM

Heckuva Job, Barry!

ThePrez on September 26, 2009 at 12:22 PM

If it were such a leading indicator of the economy as a whole, why haven’t we heard about “orders of durable goods” before?

Apparently, you have never taken an Economics class.

Figures.

PappaMac on September 26, 2009 at 12:22 PM

According to the US Dept of Commerce Beareau of Economic Analysis

2008 QI
2008 QII
2008 QIII
2008 QIV
2009 QI
2009 QII
2009 QIII
2009 QIV

ROCnPhilly on September 26, 2009 at 12:23 PM

Whoops typo!

ROCnPhilly on September 26, 2009 at 12:23 PM

Apparently, you have never taken an Economics class.

Figures.

PappaMac on September 26, 2009 at 12:22 PM

e-dumbhead is the type of guy who gets excited that he gets a refund for overpaying his taxes rather than getting pissed off for giving the government an interest-free loan for the entire year.

PackerBronco on September 26, 2009 at 12:27 PM

e-pirate on September 26, 2009 at 12:09 PM

According to the US Dept of Commerce Beareau of Economic Analysis

The US GDP is:

2008 QI 13366.9
2008 QII 13415.3
2008 QIII 13324.6
2008 QIV 13141.9
2009 QI 12925.4
2009 QII 12892.5

Anybody see a trend?

Spreadsheet here:
http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdpfeint.xls

ROCnPhilly on September 26, 2009 at 12:28 PM

Joe Biden tells Americans that the stimulus has worked “better than we hoped,”

If this is “better than they hoped,” they must have hoped that the entire economy would have crashed by now.

rmgraha on September 26, 2009 at 12:29 PM

ROCnPhilly on September 26, 2009 at 12:28 PM

You can teach liberals anything with facts. It just doesn’t feel right.

PappaMac on September 26, 2009 at 12:30 PM

Beareau = Bureau

Jeez.

ROCnPhilly on September 26, 2009 at 12:30 PM

Ya’ know. Maybe we should look at a double dip recession in a slightly different manner.

Would a double dip recession or a depression wipe out the unions? I guess it didn’t in the 1930′s so maybe not.

PappaMac on September 26, 2009 at 12:32 PM

The Banks are sitting on the foreclosures. They have yet to hit the market. And nobody is going to buy, unless you’re really into high risk, at the prices now.

Housing will go lower.

AnninCA on September 26, 2009 at 12:33 PM

Joe would have made a really great Ceasar. In every way.

Insane, oblivious to things beyond visual range, with good teeth, and an international relations genious (in his own mind).

If we ever need an emperor, I think Joe’s our guy.

BobMbx on September 26, 2009 at 12:33 PM

How would you like to be one of the formerly reputable economists who succumbed under pressure by the Obama administration to declare the recession over?

What are their names and University affiliations again?

Potential applicants should know where NOT to go to college.

jeff_from_mpls on September 26, 2009 at 12:33 PM

Where are the jobs?

faraway on September 26, 2009 at 12:19 PM

Teachers and govt workers.

AnninCA on September 26, 2009 at 12:33 PM

Say it ain’t so, Joe!

PatMac on September 26, 2009 at 12:35 PM

Teachers and govt workers.

AnninCA on September 26, 2009 at 12:33 PM

Pretty much. The only the stimulus was designed to do was to stimulate the government.

PackerBronco on September 26, 2009 at 12:36 PM

Does not look good.

Terrye on September 26, 2009 at 12:36 PM

Biden’s trying to reassure us just like the terrorists reassured the passengers of each aircraft just before they struck the Towers.
The only difference is, these idiots are performing their suicides in slow motion, with OUR ECONOMY!

Cybergeezer on September 26, 2009 at 12:36 PM

Obooba and Plugs spent enough time talking down the markets down, fearmongering and Bush bashing. Then they passed a political patronage bill misnamed as economic stimulus, nationalized most of the auto industry, nationalized student loans, bash corporations and insurance companies, and try to nationalize health care and health insurance. Real unemployment is at 16.8% (DOL U8 report), home prices have not begun to recover, car sales are down and people are holding onto their cash. You can’t easily talk up an economy after working so hard to destroy it.

BottomLine5 on September 26, 2009 at 12:38 PM

Those of us trying to make a living (as opposed to those who suckle at the teat of big government) will tell you that this recession is not over by a long shot – in fact, we’re waiting for the other shoe to drop.

Companies that I am in contact with are still retreating, still hording their pennies. This week, the amount of work that was previously ordered that was taken off of the books exceeded that which was produced.

Government IS the problem. They created this mess and they are making it far, far worse by attempting to solve it with their redistributionist schemes.

turfmann on September 26, 2009 at 12:43 PM

Hey e-pirate!

According to the The US Bureau of Labor Statistics

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.cpseea1.txt

The US National Unemployment Rate

2008:
August………………… 6.2
September……………… 6.2
October……………….. 6.6
November………………. 6.8
December………………. 7.2
2009:
January (3)……………. 7.6
February………………. 8.1
March…………………. 8.5
April…………………. 8.9
May…………………… 9.4
June………………….. 9.5
July…………………..9.4
August………………… 9.7

Can you see a trend here?

ROCnPhilly on September 26, 2009 at 12:43 PM

Is Joe Biden stupid or does he think we are?

ROCnPhilly on September 26, 2009 at 12:46 PM

ROCnPhilly on September 26, 2009 at 12:43 PM

Again with the facts?!? Stop it. Just STOP IT!

PappaMac on September 26, 2009 at 12:46 PM

Teachers and govt workers.

AnninCA on September 26, 2009 at 12:33 PM

Re-educators and perimeter guards.

FIFY.

Anyone remember Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge?

In power, the Khmer Rouge carried out a radical program that included isolating the country from foreign influence, closing schools, hospitals and factories, abolishing banking, finance and currency, outlawing all religions, confiscating all private property and relocating people from urban areas to collective farms where forced labor was widespread. The purpose of this policy was to turn Cambodians into “Old People” through agricultural labor.

Let’s edit just a bit, and see how it sounds:

In power, the Obama Administration carried out a radical program that included isolating the country from foreign influence, closing schools, hospitals and factories, abolishing banking, finance and currency, outlawing all religions, confiscating all private property and relocating people from urban areas to collective farms where forced labor was widespread. The purpose of this policy was to turn Americans into “Old People” through agricultural labor.

Let’s review:

isolating the country from foreign influence? Check

closing schools, hospitals and factories? Check

abolishing banking, finance and currency? Check

outlawing all religions? Not yet, but it’s only been 8 months.

confiscating all private property? In progress. Get their money first, then take their stuff.

relocating people from urban areas to collective farms where forced labor was widespread? Near future. When gas is so expensive the farmers can’t purchase it, who will plow the fields? You and me.

Ni Hao, Obama

BobMbx on September 26, 2009 at 12:47 PM

Update: How about we give a Chip Diller All Is Well Award here?

And we as taxpayers can assume the position. “Thank you sir, may I have another?”

Cicero43 on September 26, 2009 at 12:49 PM

Baltic Dry Index down 12% over last year. Rail and truck freight down as much as 20%. Things are definitely not looking up. I wish I had what they’re smoking. That would certainly be a “hot” job, ganga supplier to the WH.

JimK on September 26, 2009 at 12:55 PM

The economists who say the recession is over are the same ones who didn’t see the real estate bubble (obvious to many of us for years). They probably also think that FDR’s policies helped the U.S. during the Great Depression rather than realizing that his policies deepened and extended the depression.

I just laugh at those clowns every time they speak.

MeAlice on September 26, 2009 at 12:56 PM

The Health/Medical industry accounts for 17% of GDP and is the nation’s largest employer.

If they pass Obamacare, they will bankrupt this country in less than 2 years. Bankrupt!

TN Mom on September 26, 2009 at 12:57 PM

ROCnPhilly on September 26, 2009 at 12:43 PM

Again with the facts?!? Stop it. Just STOP IT!

PappaMac on September 26, 2009 at 12:46 PM

Yeah… Stop it!!! Leftards don’t roll that way.

Ogabe on September 26, 2009 at 12:58 PM

Joe Biden tells Americans that the stimulus has worked “better than we hoped”

YOU LIE!!!!!!!!!

TN Mom on September 26, 2009 at 1:00 PM

prices must come down before we have a recovery. Prices are too high in all things. The gov spending is keeping the prices up artifically yet their is no jobs for consumers to buy those products. therefore until prices reset down there will be no new job creation. reccsions and deflation are as needed in a captialistic society as booms and inflation. people have forgotten that the old adage no pain no gain

unseen on September 26, 2009 at 1:02 PM

Re: Stop it!!!

Just tossing some facts into the fire to watch the lefties scatter.

ROCnPhilly on September 26, 2009 at 1:05 PM

Hey fools don,t believe your lying eyes & ears.Just trust in the one and his little toadie and there band of yes men.

thmcbb on September 26, 2009 at 1:11 PM

Can you see a trend here?

ROCnPhilly on September 26, 2009 at 12:43 PM

seriously no. there is no trend at the moment. the last 4 months have been steady with a declining month and an increasing month. In graph terms we are at an inflection point. Unemployment could shoot upp, down or stay the same. There is no way to tell with the last 4 months period. I would think for the unemployment picture to get alot worse we will have to stat that double dip recession soon. most of the steady unemployment over the last 4 mnonths is duealot to the fact that severance packages are starting to run out form the jan-apr layoffs.

The trend will resume soo. IMO it will be an uptrend as a second wave of cost cutting takes hold has revenues dry up for companies and they must meet the bottom line.

I also see xmas sells down about 10-20% this yer over last which will destroy any and all hope for a recover in 2010

unseen on September 26, 2009 at 1:11 PM

While Joe Biden tells Americans that the stimulus has worked “better than we hoped,” the numbers tell a different story.

What makes you think he’s not genuine? (“Never let a crisis go to waste.”)

BKeyser on September 26, 2009 at 1:13 PM

The paragraph discussing this plunge in orders for durable goods isn’t cited or linked, so we’ve got to take Ed’s word for it. Hooray!

e-pirate343 on September 26, 2009 at 12:09 PM

getalife.

The stats come directly from the Fed:

http://www.census.gov/m3

And this was widely reported yesterday in the press

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aYGMAc5cVt5Y

And even as far away as China

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-09/26/content_12112643.htm

But thanks for playing, kid. Here’s your consolation prize.

(Sound of trap door opening)

Del Dolemonte on September 26, 2009 at 1:15 PM

Let me see if I have this straight:
(1)As of August 12th, the job creation part of the stimulus bill ($105 Billion) had spent ~2% ($1.9 Billion) of the budgeted money. – Meaning, 98% ($103 Billion)has yet to make it out of the Fed (can’t wait for health care).
(2) The four week average of people on unemployment on Feb. 14th was 4,839,500
(3) The four week average of people on unemployment on Sept. 5th was 6,182,500
(4) The number of people on Emergency(extended)Unemployment Compensation for the weekly report of Feb 14th was 1,432,919.
(5) The number of people on Emergency(extended)Unemployment Compensation for the weekly report of Sept. 10th was 3,102,877.
(6)Unemployment was 8.1% for February – and is now at 9.7%
(7)Mass layoffs are increasing

And Biden says:
“The recovery act has played a significant role in changing the trajectory of our economy.” and: “Instead of talking about the beginning of a depression, we are talking about the end of a recession.”

I hate to say this – but I must have lost my train of thought – Is this making sense to anyone???????????

Oopsdaisy on September 26, 2009 at 1:16 PM

The Banks are sitting on the foreclosures. They have yet to hit the market.

AnninCA on September 26, 2009 at 12:33 PM

Not true at all-I am in the real estate biz, and one of my specialties is REO properties. They have been on the market like crazy since late 2007.

In some of the larger cities in my market, REO properties make up 25% to 30% of all active listings, and 20% to 25% of all closed sales since Soros started crashing things to get his guy elected.

Del Dolemonte on September 26, 2009 at 1:19 PM

The Scarlet Letter applies here.

Lincoln Cadillac on September 26, 2009 at 1:23 PM

Anyway, I think swing voters will swallow on a grim Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years, but by Valentine’s Day, they will not be in the mood to hear about Barack and Michelle’s romantic Valentine’s Day date.

BuckeyeSam on September 26, 2009 at 12:12 PM

Yes. My stylist is in her early 20′s. Big Obama supporter, so I always kept my mouth shut. Well, as of yesterday she’s very vocal about how everyone was deceived, he is a liar, thief and a total fraud.

On top of that, H.S. kids are also totally against him.

Hope! Change!

Key West Reader on September 26, 2009 at 1:28 PM

In some of the larger cities in my market, REO properties make up 25% to 30% of all active listings, and 20% to 25% of all closed sales since Soros started crashing things to get his guy elected.

Del Dolemonte on September 26, 2009 at 1:19 PM

Del, is there any truth to the rumor about a huge Commercial real estate crash? That Bank of America is in big trouble?

Key West Reader on September 26, 2009 at 1:29 PM

Can you see a trend here?

ROCnPhilly on September 26, 2009 at 12:43 PM

seriously no.

Over 13 months, there’s been a single uptick. I question this number and expect it will eventually be adjusted up, as all numbers are adjusted as further data come in. Otherwise, the numbers have been upward.

I expect them to level at some point as there is a minimum number of employees a business must have to stay in business. But unemployment will continue to rise as businesses fail.

We agree it’s gonna be a double-dipper. Christmas sales down 20? Does that include after-Christmas sales? That’s gonna hurt.

ROCnPhilly on September 26, 2009 at 1:30 PM

Gird Your Loins.

Fletch54 on September 26, 2009 at 1:32 PM

Dear Liberal Troll Ed is doing you a favor by quoting figures from the Federal Government which has every reason to taint the numbers and no reason to tell the truth. You cannot handle the truth and the truth of the matter is this was true of the Republicans as well. They couldn’t handle the truth that you spending like drunken sailors was NOT a good idea. Anyways I digress…let me deconstruct this BS you are selling.

- Instead of quoting a commonly used metric like GDP or unemployment, Ed is alarmed that “orders of durable goods” are declining, suggesting Ed had to cherry pick a bad looking stat.

Unemployment has been skyrocketing…try this paragraph on for size from John Williams.

September Payrolls and Unemployment Rate. Due for release next Friday (October 2nd), reporting of September payroll employment and the unemployment rate are at some risk of disappointing expectations. Per Briefing.com, payroll losses are expected at 188,000 for the month (versus a 216,000 jobs loss reported in July), with the unemployment rate rising from 9.7% to 9.8%. Underlying employment-related reporting remains consistent a 500,000-plus monthly payroll jobs loss (200,000 hidden in the full birth-death modeling, not just the monthly net number added in) with an added aggregate 300,000 evident in seasonal-adjustment and prior-period-revisions games played with the headline number. The unemployment rate easily could come in at 9.9%. Again, these series are coincident indicators of broad economic activity. This outlook will be updated in the next Flash Update (scheduled for September 30th).

If you were to count unemployement the way it USED to be counted we would be up in the 16-17% range RIGHT THE F now. How is that hopey changey thing working for ya?

- A google search shows this is the first time the phrase “durable goods” has ever been used by Ed on HotAir, suggesting Ed only now calls attention to it because it’s a stat doing poorly. If it were such a leading indicator of the economy as a whole, why haven’t we heard about “orders of durable goods” before?

Well I would be cocky indeed if I took credit for doing this but I know that the folks from Hot Air lurk in a bunch of different forums and I have challenged all the conservative sites to NOT depend on clowns like Krugman, Kudlow and the typical Democrat and Republican economists…because those clowns on both sides of the aisle have SCREWED US. We the people need to start looking at the stats ourselves and we need to start asking questions.

If we the people spent as much time on politics as we do worrying about sports this country would not be so screwed up.

- The paragraph discussing this plunge in orders for durable goods isn’t cited or linked, so we’ve got to take Ed’s word for it. Hooray!

And if you spent your time actually doing your OWN research like I have done you would know where Ed got those numbers.

This is not a Democrat/Republica fight…this is a freedom vvs slavery fight…the Government wants to enslave us all. SSlowly at first but gradually we will lose our freedoms…

Are you gonna stand for that?

PierreLegrand on September 26, 2009 at 1:35 PM

e-pirate-

It’s not cherrypicking when the overwhelming majority of indicators are negative. If you want to see another bleak leading metric look at weekly hours worked. 50 year low last I checked. Biden won’t be reporting on jobs for years.

The stock market is the exception. But the Fed is printing money like the Japanese print porn mags too. When that stops so will the market, because there are little earnings overall.

Chuck Schick on September 26, 2009 at 1:37 PM

durable goods and housing are RACIST!!!

right4life on September 26, 2009 at 1:38 PM

It’s far more than that.

Obama voided over three hundred years of contract law with his serving up of GM and Chrysler to the UAW.

Obama has yet to specify how he is paying for his great wealth redistribution and big government policies but anyone with more than a room temperature IQ knows that it is MASSIVE TAX HIKES.

Government is not the solution, it is the problem.

jukin on September 26, 2009 at 1:38 PM

perfect clip!

ted c on September 26, 2009 at 1:38 PM

Can you see a trend here?

ROCnPhilly on September 26, 2009 at 12:43 PM

seriously no.

apparently, joe biden can’t either…

ted c on September 26, 2009 at 1:39 PM

Here is a snippet from a post on my site…

Shipping has collapsed in all forms

Banks of all sizes are carrying loans on their books for items whose worth is less than the loan amount, sometimes MUCH less.

Commercial real estate mortgages are in a terrible state with huge defaults on the way.

Residential real estate is bottom bouncing with mortgages nearing a second round of huge defaults

Retail sales have collapsed

Credit card delinquencies and late charges are skyrocketing

Unemployment is rising and the numbers being quoted are dishonest especially when they are compared against previous slowdowns.

Auto Sales have collapsed

Our Banking industry is failing at record levels we have 94 failures THIS YEAR!

Our large financial institutions are engaged in vast schemes designed to leave the last one standing holding a very large bag of nothing. The plan is to have the US Taxpayer as that last man and our feckless politicians have enabled this generational theft.

Ponzi schemes thy name is the US Government.

Our manufacturing was moved off shore so our means of producing wealth have been stolen by crooks and thieves abetted by a public that didn’t want smelly factories and refineries in their backyards. Now they will get to have weeds…lets see how tasty weeds can become.

Our government is taking more and more of what little we are able to produce.

Our government is finding creative ways of setting one against the other in a desperate attempt to keep power.

Every aspect of Government has turned from serving the people to finding ways of perpetuating itself, even at the expense of our very lives.

The only way a recovery can result from the cures we have given ourselves is if Zimbabwe is a good example of prudent governance.

The only thing that might have worked to stop what we are GETTING ready to experience is if we would cut spending drastically and cut taxes drastically. That would have been extremly painful but nowhere near as painful as what we are getting ready to experience. See you on the other side.

PierreLegrand on September 26, 2009 at 1:44 PM

Shipping has collapsed in all forms

Banks of all sizes are carrying loans on their books for items whose worth is less than the loan amount, sometimes MUCH less.

Commercial real estate mortgages are in a terrible state with huge defaults on the way.

Residential real estate is bottom bouncing with mortgages nearing a second round of huge defaults

Retail sales have collapsed

Credit card delinquencies and late charges are skyrocketing

Unemployment is rising and the numbers being quoted are dishonest especially when they are compared against previous slowdowns.

Auto Sales have collapsed

Our Banking industry is failing at record levels we have 94 failures THIS YEAR!

Our large financial institutions are engaged in vast schemes designed to leave the last one standing holding a very large bag of nothing. The plan is to have the US Taxpayer as that last man and our feckless politicians have enabled this generational theft.

Ponzi schemes thy name is the US Government.

Our manufacturing was moved off shore so our means of producing wealth have been stolen by crooks and thieves abetted by a public that didn’t want smelly factories and refineries in their backyards. Now they will get to have weeds…lets see how tasty weeds can become.

Our government is taking more and more of what little we are able to produce.

Our government is finding creative ways of setting one against the other in a desperate attempt to keep power.

Every aspect of Government has turned from serving the people to finding ways of perpetuating itself, even at the expense of our very lives.

The only way a recovery can result from the cures we have given ourselves is if Zimbabwe is a good example of prudent governance.

PierreLegrand on September 26, 2009 at 1:45 PM

Del, is there any truth to the rumor about a huge Commercial real estate crash? That Bank of America is in big trouble?

Key West Reader on September 26, 2009 at 1:29 PM

I don’t handle commercial RE but I understand it’s due for a major shakeout. The deliquency rates on commercial loans have skyrocketed since 2007. However, the “adults in charge” allegedly see this commercial crisis coming-it won’t hit them without warning like the residential crash supposedly did.

As for Bank of America I haven’t been closely following that.

Del Dolemonte on September 26, 2009 at 1:45 PM

Durable goods orders is a racist!!!

jukin on September 26, 2009 at 1:45 PM

- The paragraph discussing this plunge in orders for durable goods isn’t cited or linked, so we’ve got to take Ed’s word for it. Hooray!

e-pirate on September 26, 2009 at 12:09 PM

Once again here’s e-butt-pirate calling Ed a liar just like IT did in the thread about California’s $500 BILLION in regulatory burden on businesses to which I responded to e-butt-pirates illogical and ignorant post with facts and first hand experience dealing with California’s heavy handed and often ineffective regulations yet in typical liberal troll fashion he had no response.

Here’s a novel idea e-butt-pirate, why don’t you come up with some actual facts and logic to support your arguments instead of constantly calling Ed a liar…oh I forgot, you’re a liberal and coming up with facts and logic is not possible for you so the only thing you can do is regurgitate the same old lame lefty memes, talking points and calling people liars or racist, how pathetic!

Liberty or Death on September 26, 2009 at 1:48 PM

New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell unexpectedly in August…

Why is everything always “unexpected” with these people?

A blindfolded monkey could throw darts at a board and get it right HALF the time. But apparently no media outlet is willing to pay that much for economic advice.

logis on September 26, 2009 at 1:50 PM

The commercial bubble will break. Many companies have 12/31 year end and pick that time to abandon old contracts such as mortgage leases. After year end audits there will be a lot of soul searching for many small businesses as to whether they can stay the course or shut down or downsize significantly. By the 2nd Q. of next year the commercial melt down will be in full swing.

Many of the insurance companies that insure commercial real estate are letting people go now because they have received notice from the tenents that they no longer will need insurance because they are vacating the premises.

A friend of mine just received notice for this very reason. It will be extremely bleak for a lot of years because this type of devastation of the economy, jobs, small business takes a long time to grow back and that is under ideal tax, regulatory and economic conditions.

hip shot on September 26, 2009 at 1:51 PM

PierreLegrand on September 26, 2009 at 1:44 PM

But that’s only like 11 different indicators going bad simultaneously on top of unemployment and durable goods. You’re just cherry picking, man!

forest on September 26, 2009 at 1:53 PM

You’re just cherry picking, man!
forest on September 26, 2009 at 1:53 PM

Nah I am not Cherry Picking Im spending my time buying ammo and food…heh.

PierreLegrand on September 26, 2009 at 1:56 PM

Sorry for the double post I thought the one with all the links got killed for too many links.

PierreLegrand on September 26, 2009 at 1:58 PM

Del, is there any truth to the rumor about a huge Commercial real estate crash? That Bank of America is in big trouble?

Key West Reader on September 26, 2009 at 1:29 PM

Yes. Here is why. As you drive about you will notice a large number of signs in store fronts saying “For Lease”. The owner of a small Strip mall probably pays a Mortgage of $30,000 to the bank. When he loses a few small fry, he suddenly finds himself “feeding the alligator” meaning he has gone income negative on his balance sheet. He can do this for only so long before he will not have the money to pay out to the bank and it forecloses. Even worse are the ones who lose an large or “anchor” tenant as the end comes quickly. We are in this situation. Businesses are closing left and right, small tenants (like real estate offices) or large tenants (like restaurants) are closing right and left. The feeling in the Commercial market is desperate and getting worse. Large Auto Dealerships are next (because of the large floorspace and many employees) along with the small retail shops.

I am agast at the Government. Shooting paper money at this problem is like shooting cocaine into your veins.

This is going to be a rough ride people. Have a profitable business or Gold and paid up Property.

GunRunner on September 26, 2009 at 2:08 PM

Ni Hao, Obama

BobMbx on September 26, 2009 at 12:47 PM

Yep. I was telling my friends to buy well-fitting middle-grey pajamas well before the election.

RushBaby on September 26, 2009 at 2:20 PM

e-pirate = economics illiterate

DrStock on September 26, 2009 at 2:22 PM

So…..SNL doesn’t see any material in Biden’s “foot in mouth disease?”

Star20 on September 26, 2009 at 2:22 PM

Reagan would say “High inflation is good business for government.” You know when government is living too well when inflation starts to rise.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9qDRZ6pSRE

jaboba on September 26, 2009 at 2:31 PM

put Biden in Charge of Afghanistan!

rob verdi on September 26, 2009 at 2:36 PM

Didn’t read the comments so far, so apologies if this has been written already.

Yo, Obama and Biden!

Recovery requires permanent jobs that creat disposable income! You have done nothing for job growth except for govt job growth. Govt jobs produce….NOTHING. They suck up tax money and remove workers from the private sector where they might actually produce something useful, like economic growth.

Idiots.

Meremortal on September 26, 2009 at 2:43 PM

Get ready for the downward curve of this economic roller coaster again, which even an extension of federal subsidies won’t cover for long — but which will guarantee an even further drop down the line.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that the coming downward curve will also guarantee that Obama and his merry band of economic illiterates will not be re-elected. To quote another famous Dim-o-crat, “it’s the economy, stupid.”

AZCoyote on September 26, 2009 at 2:50 PM

@Key West Reader
If you’re looking for someone with both oars in the water in this sea of insanity, refer to the ticker guy

13blackcats on September 26, 2009 at 2:50 PM

Durable goods and other info.http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

riverrat10k on September 26, 2009 at 2:53 PM

Pretty much. The only the stimulus was designed to do was to stimulate the government.

PackerBronco on September 26, 2009 at 12:36 PM

Oh, and don’t forget . . . we also needed to replenish the union retirement funds that are below 50% funded now that they have squandered it on Demoncrat donations and salaries for the anointed class.

outnumberedinparadise on September 26, 2009 at 2:54 PM

He can do this for only so long before he will not have the money to pay out to the bank and it forecloses. Businesses are closing left and right, small tenants (like real estate offices) or large tenants (like restaurants) are closing right and left.

This is going to be a rough ride people. Have a profitable business or Gold and paid up Property.

GunRunner on September 26, 2009 at 2:08 PM

Yep, just two weeks ago the company I’ve worked 10 years for got notice the bank was going to foreclose and just this last Monday the banks came into all of our locations after having gotten court approval and the company is now in receivership.

Most of the employees at all four of our locations have been let go. The only fortunate thing for me is because we are a chemical company they can’t just throw a chain and lock on the doors as we have a lot of hazardous materials in our facilities along with permit requirements so my being the Corporate Environmental, Health and Safety Manager I have at least another 4-6 weeks left as the hazmat has to be handled corectly and within regulatory requirements.

This is the first time I have been out of work for 23 years. To make matters worse this whole situation went from bad to tragic when the owner of the company killed himself with a shotgun this last Monday rather then face the bank taking a business he had started and worked hard to make successful over the last 30 years.

The owner of the company wasn’t just my boss or the owner of the company he was more like family as I had gone to school with his daughter, her boyfriend was my best friend, I used to go on weekend vacations to the wine country with him and his family and often had dinner at their home.

So in addition to the financial toll this is taking on people there is of course the human toll where lives are lost and families torn apart.

RIP Ron…RIP

Liberty or Death on September 26, 2009 at 2:54 PM

Comment pages: 1 2