About that Arctic ice disappearance …

posted at 12:15 pm on September 23, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

National Geographic in summer 2008:

Arctic warming has become so dramatic that the North Pole may melt this summer, report scientists studying the effects of climate change in the field.

“We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],” David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker. …

But this summer’s forecast—and unusual early melting events all around the Arctic—serve as a dire warning of how quickly the polar regions are being affected by climate change.

National Geographic this week:

This year’s cooler-than-expected summer means the Arctic probably won’t experience ice-free summers until 2030 or 2040, scientists say.

Some models had previously predicted that the Arctic could be ice free in summer by as soon as 2013, due to rising temperatures from global warming.

Scientifically, what does this tell us about the climate-change models used to make this hysterical claim?

  1. They’re completely wrong and should be jettisoned — or,
  2. They speak to a larger truth and should be used and heretics skeptics shunned

Which option would a real scientist choose, and which one would a political hack with interests in glomming onto big government grants choose?

Oh, let’s not always see the same hands …

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3

If the facts don’t fit your theory blame Bush.

Mr. Bingley on September 23, 2009 at 12:18 PM

The 2030 estimates must be based on the trend up until TODAY. The earth will continue to cool in this cycle and that number could be pushed back for centuries if ever.

marklmail on September 23, 2009 at 12:19 PM

can’t believe that psychopath came so close to being president and never would have been all that close w/o the media dragging up old news about Bush at the last minute.

gsherin on September 23, 2009 at 12:19 PM

Global warming has to be the most hilarious scientific discovery of our time. Seriously, people years from now are gonna lumping us in with flat earthers.

The Calibur on September 23, 2009 at 12:19 PM

I am waiting for the response that touts how the curbs we have placed on carbon emissions are working as the last two years of cooling proves.

WashJeff on September 23, 2009 at 12:19 PM

BUT

WHATTABOUT

THE CHILDREN

{cries}

LibTired on September 23, 2009 at 12:19 PM

What is the next scam that leftists will use once this global warming crap is fully discredited (not that I do not think it already is) to a super majority?

WashJeff on September 23, 2009 at 12:22 PM

BUT

WHATTABOUT

THE CHILDREN

{cries}

LibTired on September 23, 2009 at 12:19 PM

Instead of ocean water, they can drown in debt.

WashJeff on September 23, 2009 at 12:22 PM

AL GORE LIED! LET IT SLIDE!

ThePrez on September 23, 2009 at 12:22 PM

Some models had previously predicted that the Arctic could be ice free in summer by as soon as 2013, due to rising temperatures from global warming.

Meghan McCain says that this just means we should start asking some other models. Maybe even supermodels.

LibTired on September 23, 2009 at 12:22 PM

Clearly, their climate change models are not based upon scientific study; rather upon Algore-ithms.

lawtwin on September 23, 2009 at 12:23 PM

What is the next scam that leftists will use once this global warming crap is fully discredited (not that I do not think it already is) to a super majority?

WashJeff on September 23, 2009 at 12:22 PM

Climate Change

LibTired on September 23, 2009 at 12:23 PM

GLOBAL WARMI CLIMATE CHANGE IS A FACT!

Did we say that loudly enough to make it true?

Now, just sit back and relax… cap and trade is gonna happen, so you might as well enjoy it.

mankai on September 23, 2009 at 12:23 PM

Speaking as a “real” scientist, I think man made global warming is a bunch of crap.

loudmouth883 on September 23, 2009 at 12:23 PM

Just keep pushing that date out so far in the future that no one can dispute it. When it comes and goes and nothing happens, push it further. Your faithful will still be waiting on the hill for the spaceship…

Sue on September 23, 2009 at 12:23 PM

You can depend more on Gorebot’s disappearance. And it would be sooner.

bayview on September 23, 2009 at 12:24 PM

Global warming dissipated January 21st 2008.

portlandon on September 23, 2009 at 12:24 PM

So tired about the stupidity of the man-made global warming crowd. Has anyone else noticed how the ice cap in Antarctica has grow by over 200% in the last ten years? I think I saw the satellite images from a university in Illinois.

Also, a little common sense, the earth has been covered in ice and has been very tropical at times, what is to say that it’s not a natural change. The Sun controls earth temps.

A single volcano lets off more CFC’s and CO2 than we have since the industrial age started. 30 volcanoes erupt EVERY year.

Why are the left, who claim to worship science, so ignorant of it?!

ironmonk on September 23, 2009 at 12:24 PM

The desire to decimate our economy based off models that can’t accurately predict the weather 1 year, let alone 100, into the future should scare and raionale and informed voter away from the Democrat party.

BadgerHawk on September 23, 2009 at 12:24 PM

You become a politician when you’re too ugly for show business.

You become a climate change scientist when you are too ugly for politics.

Niko on September 23, 2009 at 12:24 PM

Which option would a real scientist choose, and which one would a political hack with interests in glomming onto big government grants choose?

Oh, let’s not always see the same hands …

Hands? Wasn’t this a rhetorical question? Even the back seat stoners got this one.

Rocks on September 23, 2009 at 12:25 PM

Scientifically, what does this tell us about the climate-change models used to make this hysterical claim?

1. They’re completely wrong and should be jettisoned — or,
2. They speak to a larger truth and should be used and heretics skeptics shunned

The Larger truth is really Global Cooling.

Chainsaw56 on September 23, 2009 at 12:25 PM

Can’t find the link, but we really need those pics of US subs popping up through an ice free north pole right about now.

strictnein on September 23, 2009 at 12:25 PM

Oh NO! Greenland might be green again.

We are in an 11 year cooling trend. They had to rename “Global Warming” to “Climate Change”.

But the climate is always changing.

The Rock on September 23, 2009 at 12:25 PM

Leftoid Logic: The facts have changed, but not the story.

The ice is just being conservative.

profitsbeard on September 23, 2009 at 12:25 PM

Unbelievable. Some friends were just up in Alaska and ther is NO melting ice. As a matter of fact the ice is growing and may shut down a shipping lane! They looked pretty healthy to me in the pictures!

xler8bmw on September 23, 2009 at 12:26 PM

This year’s cooler-than-expected summer

How is that possible according to the “theory”?

Are there somehow fewer people, livestock, trains, planes and automobiles than there were in 1950?

mankai on September 23, 2009 at 12:26 PM

What does it say about a man that his “home state” (and I use that term loosely) would vote him:
1) Representative in the House
2) Senator
3) Vice President twice,
but when he wants the top job, the answer is NO.

So now AlGore is campaigning to be the Pope of the AGW “religion.”

rbj on September 23, 2009 at 12:26 PM

Is Bush having a Texas BBQ In the Arctic ????????
Thanks Mr pres…….. I would haved liked to go…….I love Texas BBQ……….

1luckydogg on September 23, 2009 at 12:26 PM

the ice will be back now that we don’t have to supply ice to the kennedy compound.

workingforpigs on September 23, 2009 at 12:27 PM

If the facts don’t fit your theory blame Bush.

Mr. Bingley on September 23, 2009 at 12:18 PM

If that doesn’t work, blame Racism

Chainsaw56 on September 23, 2009 at 12:27 PM

Al Gore-what a fool. This is the guy who has a black cloud following him everywhere. Remember the speech he gave on global warming in New York when it was the coldest day on record and two feet of snow on the ground.

rjoco1 on September 23, 2009 at 12:27 PM

Albert Gore, Jr. – The P.T. Barnum of our time.

kingsjester on September 23, 2009 at 12:27 PM

Speaking as a real scientist, this is a bunch of crap. And, yes, crap is a technical scientific term.

Climate change = Weather…..you dumb@ss political hacks.

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on September 23, 2009 at 12:27 PM

Um, ‘scare any rational and informed voter’.

That might be my worst typo ever.

BadgerHawk on September 23, 2009 at 12:27 PM

I’m an engineer. I tried to argue with a friend one day about the intersection of modeling & simulation with knowledge & funding. I tried to explain that even if we perfectly knew every aspect of the environment and how to model it, you’d still need to build the model ($$$) and validate it.

Climatologists may be doing the best they can, but you’re a fool if you think they’ve nailed this to make any sort of proclaimation (plus continued study funds their livelihood/families, another arguement altogether).

Here’s one troubling fact, climate models really don’t have a complete understanding of how the ocean (75% of the surface of the planet) absorbs CO2. The first models for elements of this are just coming out and being tested.

NickelAndDime on September 23, 2009 at 12:27 PM

Consider the Elves, Ed! How can they possibly makes toys for the girls and boys while treading water!?

TheUnrepentantGeek on September 23, 2009 at 12:28 PM

Appears that the prediction models regarding ice have a horrendous amount of error involved in their equation. If that is the case, then the model needs to be reevaluated, the inferences made from the previous models need to be thrown into open question and further predictions must account for failures in previous predictions. Moreover, policymakers must realize the measurement and predictive error involved, and large-scale (and costly) policies such as Waxman Markey are based upon faulty premises and should be seen as dubious at best.

ted c on September 23, 2009 at 12:28 PM

mankai on September 23, 2009 at 12:26 PM

Well there are such things as outliers in data sets. Rather irrelevant though. Anthropogenic global warming is still pretty much a scam.

The Calibur on September 23, 2009 at 12:28 PM

What to see scientific bias at it best?

The disconnect between the analysis and fact demonstrates how badly the left is holding onto the global warming myth.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

ps This lab is in Boulder Colorado

Ed Graef on September 23, 2009 at 12:28 PM

Maybe it depends on what you definition of “ice free” means.

Cindy Munford on September 23, 2009 at 12:28 PM

placing a tax burden on anyone or increasing prices does not change the climate. Good start would to stop all the hot air in washington and get to work.

workingforpigs on September 23, 2009 at 12:28 PM

Proof there is racism in the environment?

Snow is white, therefore it’s raaaaaaaaaacist.

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on September 23, 2009 at 12:28 PM

Catastrophic sensor failure missed sea ice the size of Texas. Kind of like MSM failure misses mistake the size of Obama.

Christien on September 23, 2009 at 12:29 PM

The ice is just being conservative.

profitsbeard on September 23, 2009 at 12:25 PM

Ice is racist. And white.

LibTired on September 23, 2009 at 12:29 PM

If the ice cap doesn’t fit, you must acquit……

oh….waitaminit….

Spiritk9 on September 23, 2009 at 12:29 PM

All of this climate danger drama is just an excuse to drown us in climate legislation, strip our rights and hand us over to the UN….

Ozprey on September 23, 2009 at 12:29 PM

oopsie

cmsinaz on September 23, 2009 at 12:29 PM

AP alarmism at foxnews.com

Satellite shows ice sheets in Greenland, Antarctica are shrinking faster than scientists previously thought

British scientists for the first time calculated changes in the height of the vulnerable but massive ice sheets and found them especially worse at their edges.

These scientists are always surprised. How can 1 measurement show a trend?

zmdavid on September 23, 2009 at 12:29 PM

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on September 23, 2009 at 12:28 PM

I hate you.

LibTired on September 23, 2009 at 12:29 PM

You become a politician when you’re too ugly for show business.

That explains Henry Waxman.

ICBM on September 23, 2009 at 12:29 PM

But but but we’re all gonna die unless we DO SOMETHING BECUZ OBAMA SAID SO!@!!!!eleventy11!!!!!

Good Lt on September 23, 2009 at 12:30 PM

Henry “oink oink” waxman

workingforpigs on September 23, 2009 at 12:31 PM

the ice will be back now that we don’t have to supply ice to the kennedy compound.

workingforpigs on September 23, 2009 at 12:27 PM

+lollers

LibTired on September 23, 2009 at 12:31 PM

“This is our model , and if it dont work , well we got others”

the_nile on September 23, 2009 at 12:31 PM

It’s kind of like middle age…always ten years off in the future…

right2bright on September 23, 2009 at 12:32 PM

Even NASA was forced to admit that the big meltback of 2007 was caused by changes in air and ocean circulaton patterns. In a nutshell, in a normal year, arctic ice is pushed towards the narrow gap between Alaska and Russia. In 2007 the ice was pushed the other direction towards the relatively open seas between Greenland, Ice Land, and Northern Europe.

In the two years since, circulation patterns have returned to normal and the ice has also returned to normal levels.

This years summer was one of the coldest on record.

MarkTheGreat on September 23, 2009 at 12:32 PM

All you doubters make us true believers sick… It is getting colder, or warmer, or differenter. It’s not staying the same–or maybe it is. Anyway it’s mankinds’ fault, or it maybe it isn’t. But, something could be happening and that means we need higher taxes on ANY capitalistic production methodologies and we need more control over everything and everybody.

Why can’t you play nice and let us have our way.

(please apply the total sarcasm function to all of the above)

Crusader Rabbit on September 23, 2009 at 12:32 PM

That explains Henry Waxman.

ICBM on September 23, 2009 at 12:29 PM

Waxman is too ugly for RADIO.

Spiritk9 on September 23, 2009 at 12:33 PM

I blame the ice beer movement in 1993 for the depletion of the ice sheet.

Molson Ice was the first beer on the market, and Canada borders the Arctic sheet…coincidence, I think not.

NickelAndDime on September 23, 2009 at 12:33 PM

I stopped subscribing to NG because of jackassery like this.

I enjoyed so many of their articles, but their pushing of politics just wore me out.

NoDonkey on September 23, 2009 at 12:33 PM

I might also add that the Antarctic has been setting records for the extent of it’s sea ice over the last several years.

MarkTheGreat on September 23, 2009 at 12:33 PM

Global warming dissipated January 21st 2008.

portlandon on September 23, 2009 at 12:24 PM

This global warming just sounds like a lot of hot air.

the_nile on September 23, 2009 at 12:33 PM

Let me be clear, the time for debate is over. Now is the time for climate control so it never changes again.

clorensen on September 23, 2009 at 12:33 PM

That pic of Algore is giving Bawney Fwanks a tingle…..

Jerome Horwitz on September 23, 2009 at 12:33 PM

So tired about the stupidity of the man-made global warming crowd. Has anyone else noticed how the ice cap in Antarctica has grow by over 200% in the last ten years? I think I saw the satellite images from a university in Illinois.

ironmonk on September 23, 2009 at 12:24 PM

I saw a documentary about the construction of this building in antartica a couple years ago. This building has a feature that allows the whole building to be raised as the ice increases below while its resident scientists study the effects of global warming.

WashJeff on September 23, 2009 at 12:33 PM

Let me be clear, the time for debate is over. Now is the time for climate control so it never changes again.

clorensen on September 23, 2009 at 12:33 PM

If we don’t act now , people will die.

the_nile on September 23, 2009 at 12:33 PM

Global Warming is caused by Liberals.

Remember the days of Ozzie and Harriett, Leave it to Beaver and Father Knows Best? Back in the 1950′s families only had one car and mom always stayed home.

If we returned to those days we would have half the cars on the road (and the other half would actually move) half the office and factory space to heat and cool, smaller homes (couldn’t afford big ones), fewer garage sales (couldn’t afford to buy all that stuff we don’t really want). We would reduce the carbon footprint by more than 70% just by letting mom stay home like she probably would like to do anyway.

What caused this?

Feminism.

In as much as Feminists are liberals, increased levels of CO2 are caused by liberals. There ain’t no gettin around this one.

I personally don’t blame women for global warming because:

1. Global warming is caused by the sun, not man.
2. CO2 has little or nothing to do with climate. (No measurable impact).
3. The greatest source of “Hot Air” (Michelle’s web site omitted) is Al Gore’s Mouth.

The Rock on September 23, 2009 at 12:34 PM

Follow the money.

a capella on September 23, 2009 at 12:34 PM

Obama cannot do anything about Climate Change. It is above his pay grade. Way above.

kingsjester on September 23, 2009 at 12:34 PM

BUT

WHATTABOUT

THE CHILDREN

{cries}

LibTired on September 23, 2009 at 12:19 PM

At least they’ll be employed. ACORN will get them jobs in a brothel.

Daggett on September 23, 2009 at 12:34 PM

Fargin’ iceholes.

LibTired on September 23, 2009 at 12:34 PM

So you’re telling me I should cancel “Arctic Jet Ski” business license application. There goes my summer plans.

Indian Outlaw on September 23, 2009 at 12:34 PM

Oh great. What about that ocean front property I bought in Iowa?

Can I get an Obama bailout?

PA Guy on September 23, 2009 at 12:35 PM

This years summer was one of the coldest on record.

MarkTheGreat on September 23, 2009 at 12:32 PM

I know the captains on the Deadliest Catch boats were amazed at the amount of ice during this past crab season.

WashJeff on September 23, 2009 at 12:35 PM

This guy is a complete idiot:

“We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],” David Barber, of the University of Manitoba”

Dude seriously, the earth is over 4 billion years old and you think there have been polar ice caps forever? You really need to get a refund on your educational costs cause you did not learn a thing.

Disclaimer: If he meant the first time in recorded history I might buy that, but he should have said that, he is supposedly a scientist after all.

Johnnyreb on September 23, 2009 at 12:35 PM

Yup, it’s getting cooler, sea ice in general is increasing, and the global sea level is falling steadily.

Sounds like a crisis! We should force everyone out of their cars, force people and livestock to wear methane capturing equipment, and tax everything!

theCork on September 23, 2009 at 12:35 PM

What caused this?

Feminism.

LOL

NickelAndDime on September 23, 2009 at 12:35 PM

I am still waiting for the ice age they promised me in high school in the late sixties…and the world wide famine, it’s over 9 years late…

right2bright on September 23, 2009 at 12:36 PM

This is just proof positive that “climate change” science is merely a disguise for “environmental faith.”

These environmentalists wrap their methods in a moonbean, discuss it with a rainbow, and conclude it with a disney slogan. The complete disallowance of skepticism into this debate by the fallacious promoters of it should be enough to throw ANY results they produce into question. They dichotomize this debate into “FOR” and “AGAINST” the environment which is a fallacy writ large—who the hell is against the environment. I can’t say I know anyone who wants dirty water or a muddy north pole.

And it’s the left who says that we need to have a separation between church and state….They are trying to build the church of the environment.

ted c on September 23, 2009 at 12:36 PM

Joe Romms boss at climate Progress (funded by soros) is busy with board member duties at ACORN. Run along. We have to battle for women and children housing. Podesta has everything under control. As soon as ACORN is rebuilt, they can come over and ruffle up the deniers.. shakedown time.

seven on September 23, 2009 at 12:37 PM

Fargin’ iceholes.

LibTired on September 23, 2009 at 12:34 PM

Johnny Dangerously w/ Joe Piscopo….

that’s a good one.

ted c on September 23, 2009 at 12:37 PM

“Global warming has to be the most hilarious scientific discovery of our time. Seriously, people years from now are gonna lumping us in with flat earthers.”

[The Calibur on September 23, 2009 at 12:19 PM]

They’re long past discovery and into invention.

Here’s a vid capture of the tenor of late 70′s “flat-earthers” for your enjoyment. (via BrothersJudd)

Those who remember the winter of 1977 will probably like the coverage here, though, and at least the show was up front honest about their series.

Dusty on September 23, 2009 at 12:37 PM

Hey just because all the models that Global Warming Alarmists use have been proven to be wrong is no reason we can’t trust these same models to base our government policy on, right?

18-1 on September 23, 2009 at 12:37 PM

Never in the history of climate has CO2 driven climate change, CO2 has always lagged 1000 years behind climate changes.

While CO2 is a greenhouse gas it is not a major green house gas. More water vapor is put into the atmosphere every day than human’s emit CO2 into the atmosphere every year.

And Global Warming is good for Humanity unless you like the idea of a one mile thick sheet of ice extending as far south as St. Louis.

Holger on September 23, 2009 at 12:38 PM

This is the proof we global warming enthusiasts have been predicting . Global warming will cause the earth to cool and be covered with ice prior to the actual warming . Then you will be sorry .

borntoraisehogs on September 23, 2009 at 12:38 PM

These are the same people that said the 9-12 count in Washington was 60-70 thou????????????

1luckydogg on September 23, 2009 at 12:38 PM

Al Gore is just damn lucky he’s not naked, and flopping on a piece of ice up there, otherwise he might be mistaken for a seal, and harpooned. His constant manipulation of this “global warming” schlock, as a ruse to make himself wealthier, and wealthier, is disgusting!

capejasmine on September 23, 2009 at 12:39 PM

Obama has started to heal the planet already.

Caper29 on September 23, 2009 at 12:40 PM

Obama has rescued us! He also would like to remind you that he is the 44th President of the United States. This is not about him, except when it is.

Maybe he will claim that his policies reversed the melting. He is God, you know.

mcg0125 on September 23, 2009 at 12:40 PM

Holger on September 23, 2009 at 12:38 PM

I think it’s more important to understand how the climate is changing and adapt, instead of trying to change it.

The Calibur on September 23, 2009 at 12:40 PM

More water vapor is put into the atmosphere every day than human’s emit CO2 into the atmosphere every year.

Holger on September 23, 2009 at 12:38 PM

There’s some great NASA litature on the role of water vapor and climate change…that, of course, has been totally ignored and minimized.

NickelAndDime on September 23, 2009 at 12:40 PM

The ice is just being conservative.
profitsbeard on September 23, 2009 at 12:25 PM

Ice is racist. And white.
LibTired on September 23, 2009 at 12:29 PM

What about all those warnings about “Black Ice” (really clear ice on the road at night) in the wintertime?

Hhmmmmmmmmm…

Colbyjack on September 23, 2009 at 12:40 PM

This year’s cooler-than-expected summer means

So, we’re supposed to accept on faith the predictions for 30 years down the road from people who couldn’t even predict this summer correctly?

Scrappy on September 23, 2009 at 12:40 PM

borntoraisehogs on September 23, 2009 at 12:38 PM

please tell me you forgot to add /s to that…

cmsinaz on September 23, 2009 at 12:41 PM

Waxman is too ugly for RADIO.

Spiritk9 on September 23, 2009 at 12:33 PM

Is it just me, or does he look like one of the Whos in Whoville in Grinch movie?

JohnBG on September 23, 2009 at 12:41 PM

I know the captains on the Deadliest Catch boats were amazed at the amount of ice during this past crab season.

WashJeff on September 23, 2009 at 12:35 PM

After this past year I was set to take the boat around Alaska, around Canada and down the East coast (Northwest passage).
But it is not going to be ice free next year (prediction), it was this past year, for just a couple of months.
The ice is really packing in, and they expect it to be not navigable by private boats for next year…which probably means for the next 20 years.

right2bright on September 23, 2009 at 12:42 PM

The sky is falling, the sky is falling!…..never mind.

GarandFan on September 23, 2009 at 12:42 PM

For reading and for viewing, from here.

tree hugging sister on September 23, 2009 at 12:42 PM

Look, all I know is we got Bush out of office and Obama into office and immediately temperatures and ice levels started to improve.

NickelAndDime on September 23, 2009 at 12:43 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3