About that Arctic ice disappearance …

posted at 12:15 pm on September 23, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

National Geographic in summer 2008:

Arctic warming has become so dramatic that the North Pole may melt this summer, report scientists studying the effects of climate change in the field.

“We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],” David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker. …

But this summer’s forecast—and unusual early melting events all around the Arctic—serve as a dire warning of how quickly the polar regions are being affected by climate change.

National Geographic this week:

This year’s cooler-than-expected summer means the Arctic probably won’t experience ice-free summers until 2030 or 2040, scientists say.

Some models had previously predicted that the Arctic could be ice free in summer by as soon as 2013, due to rising temperatures from global warming.

Scientifically, what does this tell us about the climate-change models used to make this hysterical claim?

  1. They’re completely wrong and should be jettisoned — or,
  2. They speak to a larger truth and should be used and heretics skeptics shunned

Which option would a real scientist choose, and which one would a political hack with interests in glomming onto big government grants choose?

Oh, let’s not always see the same hands …

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…and, ice is racist.

LibertyBoyNYC on September 23, 2009 at 2:17 PM

… and about that whole “melting north pole will flood the coastal area”.

Try this little experiment. Put an ice cube in a glass of water and mark the water level on the side of the glass. Let the ice cube melt. Does the water level go up, down or remain the same? Hint: His name was Archimedes.

kurtzz3 on September 23, 2009 at 2:23 PM

“International Negotiations Result in China and India Agreeing Not to Laugh at U.S. Global Warming Policies” http://optoons.blogspot.com/2009/09/international-negotiations-result-in.html

Mervis Winter on September 23, 2009 at 2:25 PM

Still waiting for the sooooooooooopaaar geniuses that makes the AGW computer models get ONE, just ONE, prediction correct.

still waiting..

still..

jukin on September 23, 2009 at 2:36 PM

Of course they are wrong. Funny, Mother Nature seems to be putting the crazy left in its place.

Sometimes you just can’t make this stuff up!

archer52 on September 23, 2009 at 2:38 PM

Did the models predict a drop in tornadoes and hurricanes this year? No??

seven on September 23, 2009 at 2:46 PM

Try this little experiment. Put an ice cube in a glass of water and mark the water level on the side of the glass. Let the ice cube melt. Does the water level go up, down or remain the same? Hint: His name was Archimedes.

kurtzz3 on September 23, 2009 at 2:23 PM

Works for melting ice floating in the water, but not for ice which is not floating (e.g., on land, or partially held out of the water by forces not related to the density issue). I’m not a proponent of man-made global warming, but the issue isn’t straight Archimedes, either.

unclesmrgol on September 23, 2009 at 2:53 PM

His name was Archimedes.

kurtzz3 on September 23, 2009 at 2:23 PM

They made a statue to him in Eureka.

MarkTheGreat on September 23, 2009 at 2:56 PM

Every fourth Milankvitch Cycle, the earth’s orbit attains its roundest shape and the terminal interglacial lasts about 20,000 years longer than normal. The last time that happened, Greenland was ice-free and supported thick forests and a teeming and diverse ecosystem.

We are in the fourth cycle now, so expect that the Greenland icecap will totally disappear about 10,000 – 15,000 years from now. If Al Gore is still around, he’ll be able to say, “I told you so!”

lonesomecharlie on September 23, 2009 at 2:58 PM

The last time that happened, Greenland was ice-free and supported thick forests and a teeming and diverse ecosystem.

Just a hunch, but, this might be why it’s called “Greenland”.

We are in the fourth cycle now, so expect that the Greenland icecap will totally disappear about 10,000 – 15,000 years from now. If Al Gore is still around, he’ll be able to say, “I told you so!”

lonesomecharlie on September 23, 2009 at 2:58 PM

I hear the Goracle is about to shift gears and attempt to make money by claiming the magnetic poles are going to shift (again) due to the overuse of electronic devices. If we don’t reduce our dependence on foreign cell phones, TVs, etc.. in five years it will be impossible to prevent the catastrophe.

BobMbx on September 23, 2009 at 3:18 PM

Those who remember the winter of 1977 will probably like the coverage here, though, and at least the show was up front honest about their series.

Dusty on September 23, 2009 at 12:37 PM

Oh I do remember it, I was pregnant!! But then, by summer, it was so hot in 1977 that there was a blackout (Son of Sam summer) so go figure.

NJ Red on September 23, 2009 at 3:19 PM

All those colored balls being chased around by a white ball

Racist statements can get you banned!!

oldleprechaun on September 23, 2009 at 3:22 PM

This year’s cooler-than-expected summer means the Arctic probably won’t experience ice-free summers until 2030 or 2040, scientists say.

Cooler than expected? Who made the expectations? Computer modelers with unrealistic forcing functions?

So, how do we make the models agree with reality? Change the models, or send an Eskimo to the North Pole with a huge blowtorch?

Yeah, the CO2 from the blowtorch would cause global warming, so that’s the scientific thing to do. /sarc

Steve Z on September 23, 2009 at 3:24 PM

“But Brawndo has what plants want. It has electrolytes.”

—-B. Obama

riverrat10k on September 23, 2009 at 1:09 PM

We are living Idiocracy now aren’t we?

Monica on September 23, 2009 at 1:11 PM

Living through this prezident does feel like living through and episode of “Ow, My Balls”….

Fighton03 on September 23, 2009 at 3:53 PM

Every year, a different excuse, a different reason to tax the hell out of us. The world for us won’t get any better until every last lefty is dead and gone.

Jeff from WI on September 23, 2009 at 4:19 PM

I’m starting to question whether the sky is actually falling or not.

ronsfi on September 23, 2009 at 4:21 PM

Stupid morons. The Wile E. Coyote, ssssuuuupppprrraaa-gggennnniiiiooouuusss crowd.

Think Rush Holt in New Jersey, physics professor and complete idiot on every other issue under the sun.

Sapwolf on September 23, 2009 at 4:31 PM

This madness has to stop…

Seven Percent Solution on September 23, 2009 at 5:05 PM

This year’s cooler-than-expected summer means the Arctic probably won’t experience ice-free summers until 2030 or 2040, scientists say.

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh?
Cooler-than-expected THIS YEAR, doesn’t quite explain the addition of 20 to 30 years till the ice melts!

DSchoen on September 23, 2009 at 5:41 PM

Wow–sapwolf. You reeeeeeaaaaaallly maaaaaadeeeee your point. Thanks for that inciteful addition to the conversation.
This hysteria from the crowd who acurately predicted that in the year two thousand all of our computers would stop because the time stamp would go to 00 thereby causing the infrastructure to collapse and sending us back into the stone age. Can’t help thinking that Microsoft made millions off of selling their programs to help eliminate that threat. Can’t help but observe that Al Gore, George Soros, Jeffrey Immelt, and the One and only himself are pimping climate change as well just so they can try to send us back to the stone age and make money at the same time. Aw sapwolf sapwolf sapwolf. I don’t think the last part of your moniker applies. I think the first part of it nails who you and the rest of the climate change/Obama will save us faithful are right on the head. Gee I hope I don’t get bumped for saying that.

Driefromseattle on September 23, 2009 at 5:46 PM

This might sound stupid but could it be that their “climate-change models” is actually an Algebra problem/formula?

Meaning the prediction is the result of where in the formula ya put the data?
Cuz that could explain the wild erroneous predictions we have been told over the last 40 years.

That would also mean the “new term” “Global Climate Change”, actually means “We don’t have a frigging clue”

DSchoen on September 23, 2009 at 5:50 PM

Rush Holt in New Jersey, physics professor and complete idiot on every other issue under the sun.
Sapwolf on September 23, 2009 at 4:31

PM

I have often heard “Rush is a big fat Idiot

DSchoen on September 23, 2009 at 5:53 PM

His name was Archimedes.

kurtzz3 on September 23, 2009 at 2:23 PM

I think they are nuts…but they are talking about the ice on land mass melting, not the icebergs.
You know like Greenland becoming a tropical paradise…Cabo San Greenland…

right2bright on September 23, 2009 at 5:59 PM

AP alarmism at foxnews.com
Satellite shows ice sheets in Greenland, Antarctica are shrinking faster than scientists previously thought
These scientists are always surprised. How can 1 measurement show a trend?
zmdavid on September 23, 2009

WASHINGTON — New satellite information shows that ice sheets in Greenland and western Antarctica continue to shrink faster than scientists thought and in some places are already in runaway melt mode.

Uhmmmm, Greenland and Antarctica are not next to each other?

Were there any Polar bears in the photos or only Penguins? Like the last time?

Did they confuse Greenland with Australia again?

DSchoen on September 23, 2009 at 6:13 PM

Pics of Antarctica tell the story well, 43% MORE snow/ice since 1980.

People are dimwits.

Mojave Mark on September 23, 2009 at 6:26 PM

Politicization will be the death of science and engineering. And shortly after that, Western civilization itself, wherever such poliicization occurs.

Blacksmith on September 23, 2009 at 6:42 PM

This is NOT science!

OldEnglish on September 23, 2009 at 6:57 PM

Ice is White, so it’s racist!

GunRunner on September 23, 2009 at 8:28 PM

Did the models predict a drop in tornadoes and hurricanes this year? No?? seven on September 23, 2009 at 2:46 PM

2009 will prpbably be recorded as one of the quietest hurricane seasons ever. Here in East Tennesssee it was one of the mildest Summers I can remember. I don’t think the temperature never topped 95F. I really dread what this winter might bring.

Pelayo on September 23, 2009 at 9:04 PM

Works for melting ice floating in the water, but not for ice which is not floating (e.g., on land, or partially held out of the water by forces not related to the density issue). I’m not a proponent of man-made global warming, but the issue isn’t straight Archimedes, either.

unclesmrgol on September 23, 2009 at 2:53 PM

Huh? Pleeeeze explain what those forces not related to density might be.

Pelayo on September 23, 2009 at 9:11 PM

Those who remember the winter of 1977 will probably like the coverage here, though, and at least the show was up front honest about their series.

I remember that winter very vividly. I shoveled chest-high snow drifts in a t-shirt one day because it was 70deg out! very strange weather that winter.

Hazzard on September 23, 2009 at 9:15 PM

Obama hadn’t gotten the word for his UN flog fest as he pointed out the disappearing ice caps being one the greatest
crises the world corruptocrats must solve together. With the

chickasaw42 on September 23, 2009 at 9:26 PM

Recently read about the possibility of methane seeps on the seafloor having a role in climate change. Interesting.

Dr. ZhivBlago on September 23, 2009 at 10:17 PM

Environmentalism is communism in a green suitcase.

Dhuka on September 23, 2009 at 11:22 PM

The science is in.
There are lies, damn lies, and computer simulations.

Confutus on September 24, 2009 at 1:05 AM

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